General Discussion – Week of 6-23-2014 – Sixth Starter Edition

Weekly Discussion

The Marlins comes to town tonight for four in a row at 7:05, and the Braves are in on Friday for a four-gamer that includes a day/night double header on Saturday (2:05pm and 7:15pm start times). Seems as though they have Brad Lincoln lined up to pitch that day if they want. I would assume that Lincoln not being the guy means it’s Sean O’Sullivan on an extra day of rest. Greg Smith is set to throw Wednesday, so he’d be way off turn if they held him out until Saturday.

There is no one on the full 40-man roster right now who would make sense as the starter, so anyone will need a roster spot. Who goes? Jon Pettibone to the 60-day DL seems easiest, as he has had or is about to have exploratory shoulder surgery, which would put him well off of a return.

Discuss.

104 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 6-23-2014 – Sixth Starter Edition”

  1. Interesting to see how the other Philly teams are now all analytics driven for the most part. Wonder how long it will take the Phils to get on board….

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    1. Especially since baseball seems to have gotten a head start on all the other sports in that area. The Phils are slowly getting on the ball, I think.

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      1. A number of things I’ve read suggest that the organization is…lacking in absorptive capacity, shall we say.

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  2. I feel like with the Martin for Rosenberg move, they’re going to stretch Martin out again and keep him in the LV rotation. Then they’ll option Rosenberg down on Saturday after the day game, bring up Lincoln to start. And leave Lincoln as the long/swing man in the BP.

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    1. Well, assuming Martin’s loss in velocity turns out to be a temporary thing, it might have been a blessing in disguise. By all accounts he’s focused more on pitching since he suddently lost his velocity in the spring (the velocity has come back close to prior levels, but not quite all the way). Martin has a bunch of pitches that profile as above average to plus, but his command has always been below average to fair. If he could become a solid 3/4 that would be extremely helpful to the team – it’s way more useful than having him as a 6th or 7th inning guy (which is where he profiles right now).

      Definitely looking forward to Aaron Nola’s start. I have this pipe dream that the team somehow stays competitive and Nola gets promoted on September 1 and takes them over the top. A crazy dream to be sure, but crazier things have happened in baseball.

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      1. catch…Todd Zolecki, a Phillies beat writer, referenced Ethan Martin this morning on one of the local talk shows….when asked if Ruben will be a seller come next moth he said…..if he does ‘hopefully he doesn’t get a bunch of Ethan Martins in return’.
        That sounded cold to me. Hope Ethan Martin getit together so I Todd can eat some crow.

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        1. Is it really cold? I hope that both Joseph and Ethan Martin succeed with the big Phillies. At the same time, I certainly hope that RAJ can acquire better talent at the trade deadline. It is telling that Sandberg chose to ignore Martin’s presence on his team. Joseph has some talent, but still has the recurrent concussion problem and needs to improve both offensively and defensively. Neither guy seems to be a difference maker or even an average major league ‘starting’ performer. If this is the best that the trade market can yield, then those who are suggesting that we just not make trades are correct. The Phillies really aren’t hurting for $. Why would I want to trade guys who are still good enough to start in Philly this season and perhaps next year? If you don’t need to salary dump, why trade for the sort of guy we’ve gotten thus far? Who has made a difference for us? It would be nice if Zolecki was wrong, but his crime appears to be excessive truth telling. Trading just to trade is no help at all.

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          1. Both Joseph and Martin have had injuries. I suppose you could make the argument that they should have been more wary of Joseph’s concussions, since he apparently had a couple with SF. Martin’s shoulder trouble is just what happens with pitchers, unfortunately. When healthy, both of those guys are/were pretty good prospects, so I don’t agree with Zolecki.

            Sandberg not using Martin doesn’t tell me anything except maybe they’re still trying to be cautious with his arm. Frankly, I don’t think Sandberg has done a very good job with the bullpen so him using or not using a guy doesn’t sway me.

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            1. It would depend on what player we’re giving up, for sure. I don’t think it’s fair to judge it by what the prospects have turned into, and that’s not the impression I got from Zolecki. I took it to mean that he thinks the Phils got poor value for the players we gave up.

              Victorino was an over 30 player in the middle of a down year, on the last year of his contract, and we got a 23 year old starter with a good bill of health and plus stuff, plus another guy. I think the value was fair with the Pence trade too.

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          2. Injuries really sapped their advancement.
            But labeling a player like Martin as a somewhat mediocre exchange for Victorino at the time, is disheartening to say the least.
            No one seemed to complain about the deal at the time it was made in 2012.
            Martin was a high pick for the Dodgers and was in their top ten MLB prospects list at the time.

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            2. At the time of the trade Martin was experiencing the first half season of adequate control in his pro career. It was a gamble that this would continue. I’m not judging by what our thoughts/hopes for the guys were at the time, but what they appear to have grown into. I’ll ask you the money question: would you trade Hamels, or Utley, or Rollins or Ruiz or Lee if he is healthy for Martin or Joseph. Dropping down a notch, I guess if we didn’t have to send $ with them, we might well trade Paps or Byrd for Martin.

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            3. atown….the difference in the value between an Utley, Hamels Rollins, Lee and a Victoino is monumental, plus the fact Vic was a rental player at the time.
              And none of the above are rentals.
              So the parameters are different.
              In no way would I want only a Martin for them…Martin would be part of a package.

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          3. The only justification for such trades would be to tank the season to ensure getting the highest possible pick in the draft. Before their recent hot streak, the Phils were becoming the early favorites to win the Daz Cameron Sweepstakes.

            Were they to tank three straight seasons, the Phils’ climb back to relevance would be accelerated, particularly if they were able to pick up a couple of generational talents.

            Players and managers generally don’t tank. GMs can.

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          4. The guys who are starting, are starting for a bad team, the support cast for Rollins and Utley, is horrible, so everyone can say what they want, But the only way this team can become good again is to unload the bad contracts, of Rollins, Utley, pap, and Chooch, plus Byrd, and try to draft better, and get some Latin talent. Every dollar they spend now on guys is just a Band-Aid, Your not fixing the problem. Your just using good money on the wrong people, use it to develop some younger talent and international talent, But as anyone on here knows you must start with a new attitude, and a new gm.

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            2. Paps is a bad contract.
              Maybe Byrd to some degree.
              Rollins and Utley are favorable.
              Chooch is market value.

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            3. When I say bad contracts its that we are paying a lot of money 185 million for a losing team. is Utley worth 15 million sure, but thia team needs to start with younger cheaper guys and build a team, Utley, rollins byrd aren’t the answer, my god don’t you see you cant band aid this team, need to rebuild it and unloading aging veterans with younger, cheaper talent and building through the draft and international market is the way. I love that they will spend 185 million on salary. but right now money should be spent in player development. Look at asche right now he might work out and that would help big time, not a lot of money, need more guys like him, not byrd paps types and howards,

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          5. being good enough to start in philly is a backhanded compliment at best. being that sandberg is a brutal manager, using his decision making to write off martin is lame. bad team with nothing close to ready in the minors. i would roll the dice and try to trade any of these guys if they can get anything in return. i doubt they could

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  4. Looks like Yoel Mecias is making his season debut in the GCL today. Pretty exciting news to further bolster the pitching ranks.

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  5. Yep, things are happening: Nola and Mecias pitching today, Hockenberry and Scott Harris to Lakewood, Stankiewicz also to Lakewood as Canelo goes on the DL.

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  7. Yeah, it’s really got to be Lincoln. Plus, I think they get an extra roster spot for that day anyway–40-man issue notwithstanding. Greg Smith has been really solid for us here in Allentown for two seasons now, but he’s changed to a total sidearm delivery as of two starts ago. He still doesn’t have the whole windup/stretch details worked out yet, so, work in progress…prob not the guy for Saturday regardless.

    And, Lincoln has been lights out of late. Of course he pitches tonight, so we’ll see. I’ve been calling him “Hot Rod” just in case he “drives me to drinkin” in the future….

    @Kram209
    PS: I’m not sure about the whole stretching Martin out thing. Just want to get him more regular work methinks.

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    1. Most teams in this situation do a bullpen game. I guess going with Martin/Lincoln would be exactly that.

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      1. Well, Lincoln’s been a starter for some time now. He’s fully stretched out if he can perform well against Atlanta… If not, well, then it IS a bullpen game.

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  9. 10 earned runs for biddle tonight. boy, i wish we’d kept cosart and sent biddle to houston. he can’t pitch his way out of a paper bag these days.

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          1. Nola has amazing control in college and promptly walks his first hitter and then several more. Let’s hope he was rusty. Oliver got hit around in his debut also.

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            1. Rusty? nervous? no doubt for sure first pro game not panicking yet but maybe low A to start might have been wiser. Clearwater is rough . But im not worried

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        2. Nobody seems to question the coaching,only at the top. I think a review would be nice the same as they review the players

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    2. I read in an article after Biddles’ last start in Reading. He said that he’s still experiencing concussion like symptoms, and essentially blames the concussion for his previous two clunkers. He said he’s still not 100 percent healthy from the concussion. He said he feels better but he’s not their yet…

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      1. From the article- He did admit that some of the concussion symptoms that sent him to the seven-day DL last month have lingered, and that he still occasionally feels “a little bit hazy.”

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    3. Even Trevor May, who is currently featured in milb’s trending up column…Biddle is on the bottom of the trending down list.

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  10. Well…as rough a year as Franco has had, I feel better seeing the Cubs’ Javier Baez’s numbers. And he is a guy who was (or is) Top ten in the game.

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  16. Nola apparently is not ready for the majors just yet but AA next year is a real possibility and I think today had a lot to do with nerves than talent

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    1. Honestl, we don’t know a damned thing about Nola after his first start from the statistics generated in that game. I am way more interested in his velocity and the quality of his pitches (not his command, we know that was off last night), than anything else. Did he flash any above average to plus pitches – to me, that’s the critical question. Was anybody at that start who can comment?

      As for Biddle, I’m befuddled. I’ve seen him pitch like an ace in person a couple of times and, when I saw him, his velocity was above average for a lefty. Just not sure what is going on or what to make of him, but he needs to keep pitching and try to work through this. But you’ve got to admit that the Phillies have experienced their fair share of bad luck. A pitcher, with a concussion . . . from pitching during a hail storm? What? That’s the kind of thing that happens when things are generally going poorly.

      Any way, as much of a Biddle fan as I am, I think he’s slipped out of the top 5 in the organization for now. Probablby sitting somewhere between 6 and 10.

      Here’s hoping you come back strong, Jess.

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    2. He’s use to pitching in front of big crowds,I think he underestimated how good the hitters are,in this league, this is no college league.He will adjust!

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  17. Amaro needs to be canned before the trading deadline. I don’t trust him to make the right decision.

    Biddle- very concerning. Seems like a lost cause at this point

    At least some picks from the past 2 years are doing well.. .

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    1. Well, you’re not going to get your wish. Even if they are going to fire him this year (and I doubt that – I don’t think he gets fired before the end of next year, and that’s assuming they stink next year), Montgomery and crew will not fire Amaro before the trade deadline – it’s just not going to happen.

      As for Biddle, it’s weird, upsetting and bizarre, but he’s got too much ability to be declared a lost cause at this point – if he’s still pitching like this in May of next year, maybe you are right. He’s just going to have to fight through this for a while.

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      2. From the article about his concussion, “It interrupted what has been a very good season for the Phillies No. 2 overall prospect. He has a 3.18 ERA and 61 strikeouts – second-most in the Eastern League – through 10 starts. Over his last eight starts he has posted a 2.33 ERA.” He was pitching well at the time and things seem to have come unraveled since then. Don’t know if he still is having symptoms, but maybe some time off and rehab assignment may help him get back on track.

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  18. I believe that Montgomery steps down, and Amaro gets his job, I Think that is the way they will handle it, just a hunch.

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    1. It makes me sick to think you are right, but you may actually be right. If Amaro is the President of this team, we can just all take a long vacation from competitive major league baseball for a while. It’s bad enough he’s the GM, as the President he’s going to be hiring folks who think like him and implement policies that he endorses. Fugly.

      It’s an interesting point, however, because, ultimately, I think Montgomery is the root problem with this team. He’s a nice man, he’s probably a decent business man, he’s not cheap, he cares about the fans (the Phillies are so fan friendly when you attend games – that part is nice), but he’s rooted so far in the past that it’s fairly embarassing. He’s the reason we had Wade, have Amaro and are not moving forward with the proper sense of urgency and, more important, with a perspective as to how a modern baseball franchise needs be run from the player development standpoint. And he’s so powerful that, for all intents and purposes, he might as well be the owner.

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      1. Amaro as Sr VP of Operations is next in line for the President’s job, so it makes sense.
        Plus he may be getting a little burned out with the GM issues and all that goes with it.

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      2. For the person who “thumbs downed” me – are you seriously advocating that Amaro become the President or supporting Montgomery and his decisions? Illuminate us.

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          1. Good idea. Some things I say may be controversial, I didn’t think this was one of those things.

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        2. I didn’t thumbs down the post, but I think you’re getting a little carried away. Wade presided over most of the talent acquisition that brought us our great run. Gillick did a nice job of creating a finished product, but Amaro absolutely kept the championship window open for a few extra years. Oswalt, Halladay, and Lee were basically had for nothing. Without those three moves, we might not win the division in ’09 and almost certainly don’t make the playoffs in ’10 and ’11. It’s pretty hard to overstate how fantastic those moves turned out for us.

          Amaro was a good GM for a team in win-now mode and he’s ill-equipped to oversee a rebuild. He made committed to two really dumb contracts (Howard and Papelbon) and one bad trade (Pence), although the Pence trade probably won’t be the disaster people are making it out to be. Cossart is a #4 or #5 starter. Singleton may not hit enough to compensate for his massive defensive and baserunning shortcomings, and Santana is still an unknown.

          Don’t get me wrong, I’d like Amaro gone, but it was almost impossible to keep a successful yet aging team together from 2009-2012 AND not experience a sharp decline at some point.

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          1. Gillick made his share of mistakes, but he was a good GM – he was incredibly resourceful and always found a way to pick up the team. I put up a post the other week, however, seriously shooting down the notion that Ed Wade was a solid GM. He wasn’t – in fact, he was pretty bad. He was just lucky enough to be GM when the guys running the farm system made some good picks – Ed was in the right place at the right time, but he didn’t do such a good job here and didn’t do a good job in Houston either.

            Amaro’s problem – and you’re right – is that he lacked a ton of foresight and couldn’t balance the needs of the present with those of the future and now we’re all paying the price.

            And you’re right that you can’t keep the nucleus together and avoid experiencing a sharp decline, but I despise the fatalism of Philadelphians that a sharp decline is inevitable for a team like the Phillies and that windows of opportunity close for long periods of time. That’s what you think when you grow up in Philadelphia. I didn’t – I grew up in New York where the damned Yankees were typically very good and were very good for long periods of time. Yankees fans, Dodgers fans and Cardinals fans don’t think that their team will experience long down periods. They know the team won’t win every year and they know they will have some slight down periods. But they expect their team to be in the hunt nearly every year and, you know, they usually are because their teams are run better than the Phillies.

            The problem lies not in our stars but in our management. With their resources and fan support, the Phillies should pretty always be good. .

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            2. Mostly agree on Wade although I give him a little more credit for player development and not trading away what would become our core group when there was pressure on him to move aggressively and get us into the playoffs.

              It’s an interesting point about sustained championship expectations. I honestly don’t know what sort of down period is reasonable to expect after a run like we just had.

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          2. Tell the Cardinals that and the Yankees, and Boston, San Francisco, should I go on, 14 division titles for Braves wonder how they keep it up for 14 years. I would love to have Cosart at that cheap salary over kenricks right now, if would help us in our salary cap issue. And if your following cosart he is right now really starting to pitch well and he has been seen by the league, which makes it more impressive,

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      3. The size of the revenue stream and our draft position have changed over the years, but the team’s philosophy hasn’t changed in any basic way since Bill Giles put together his group of owners and bought the team. We saw this philosophy very clearly when Giles was his own GM and there could be no doubt whose thinking was running the show. Different faces fronting the organization, but the Giles philosophy is still running the team. I doubt anything changes in a substantial way, while Giles is active with the team.

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      4. Catch if what I have read and heard is true, one point that keeps coming up is Montgomery is the reason that the team gave out these contracts, it was told to amaro to resign these guys. Giles is a nice man too, but his stubborn approach to the draft and international market, hurt us big time, not going over the cap cause of the commissioner. Look lets be real here all these guys want to win, its not personal, its business and its bad business to not develop young talent, to help you keep a good team,

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      5. Catch, we always disagree on this point but Amaro has finally brought in a sabremetric specialist and increased spending in Latin and International markets. I imagine that many of Ruben’s and Pat’s ideas are not being listened to by Giles and the “Gang of Five”. The scouting angle has been the Phillies thinking since Giles took over in 1983.

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    2. If they fire Amaro, then Dallas Green, Pat Gillick, Ed Wade and Charlie Manuel (did I miss any?) have to go as well. As Montgomery has pointed out recently, they are all involved in the decision making.

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      1. LOL – if only. It will never happen – odds are less than one in one million. It would be like going into the Union League and suggesting that it revoke the membership of everyone who lives on the Main Line.

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  19. Matt Gelb has an excellent table for Phillies production at CBP;
    SLG% trending the wrong way.

    Rk Year ▴ BA OBP SLG OPS
    1 2004 .266 .348 .450 .798
    2 2005 .281 .361 .453 .814
    3 2006 .274 .353 .462 .815
    4 2007 .280 .357 .475 .832
    5 2008 .262 .341 .447 .788
    6 2009 .263 .341 .455 .796
    7 2010 .264 .334 .429 .763
    8 2011 .256 .330 .405 .735
    9 2012 .253 .318 .404 .722
    10 2013 .250 .315 .406 .721
    11 2014 .229 .297 .362 .659

    http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sports/phillies/Phillies-hitting-problems-at-Citizens-Bank-Park-are-inexplicable.html#ExgDUiLY6KltS17g.99

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    1. Tell me about it.

      I have a partial plan at CBP. I’m not exaggerating when I say that the Phillies have probably lost 80 percent of the games I’ve attended in the last two years with my wife. This year, when we go, they don’t score runs. That’s not an exaggeration. We’ve gone to several games this year where they’ve scored no runs or only a run or two. I was at the Father’s Day game where (you guessed it) no runs were scored and I was there last night for more of their “zilch magic.” I grew up watching horrible hitting Mets teams, but never anything this bad. It’s incomprehensible.

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      2. Eight shutouts this year alone at CBP, two on the road.
        Sandberg is at his wits end.
        You can bet, a good portion of the team may be gone before the 2015 season starts., if they continue to play like they have the first half of 2014.

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  20. The Phillies minor league system took a big hit when Mike Arbuckle left. They need to hire someone of his calibre so thar they can revamp the scouting/development system. What the minor league system needs, more than anything else, is some fresh eyes taking a look at things.

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    1. Arbuckle’s drafts were bizarre.

      Arbuckle’s drafts were basically, periodic huge successes with essentially nothing else. Like a draft with Chase Utley and nobody else; Cole Hamels and nobody else. I can’t tell if this is the result of a “high ceiling only” draft philosophy or a lot of luck in striking gold in some risky players – it’s probably a combination of both. What is crystal clear, however, is that the Arbuckle drafts were very shallow in talent. There were no 9th round Jonathan Singletons or 37th round Jared Cosarts in Arbuckle’s reign.

      I think the current crew has had a much worse draft position on the whole and has produced much deeper drafts. They also had some really good talent that was traded and some bad luck with injuries. But I think they are actually better at talent evaluation now than they were during the Arbuckle years.

      That said, I think they can always get better and they can’t afford a lot more first round tool shed (high on talent, low on baseball experience) busts. Aaron Nola, whatever he ends up being and for better or worse, certainly was the opposite of that type of pick.

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      1. Arbuckle’s drafts in Kansas City have been mixed despite drafting in high positions.

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    1. Glad to hear it. I see that Sizemore has not lost his speed, so maybe he can find his timing again. When he was good, he was soooooo good. It’s a great gamble and there’s no downside risk.

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  23. The cardinals did it again, saved enough money in top ten rounds to offer 700000 to a high school pitcher, the kid was committed to Louisville. He was a 29 th round pick,

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  24. According to MLBTR OF Marlon Byrd is being targeted by the Royals, could Royals prospect RHP Christian Binford be a suitable swap?

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    1. Only three major league players with at least 275 plate appearances had lower batting averages than Brown’s .217. Brown’s .594 OPS ranked 114th out of those same 115 major league players.

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  26. Brown is about to join a long list of prospect enigma’s. Outside of his defense he had and demonstrated all the tools to be a successful offensive big league player. Maybe I am wrong but I think he lacks the mental toughness this game takes to see your name in the line-up night in and night out.

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    1. Turns 27 in September, he needs to reverse the downward trend at this point.
      That being said, some guys in the past have benefited from a change of scenery.

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  27. Matt stairs pointed out about brown, what I tried to say, what I never knew was he cant field either, I thought he would not hit, but my god all those years and cant field,

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    1. How did you think he would not hit? His minor league peripherals were off the charts after his first short season

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  28. I Watch him bat. He had trouble with fastballs and was so off-balance on certain pitches. I know people look at stats which is fine, but you need to see a player to judge. Minor league stats alone aren’t what I Believe scouts look for, one is can a player adjust, in brown case you see he hasn’t been able to adjust, after that hot streak, the pitchers adjusted, but he cant, lack of ability imo. He is a toolsy player just like a lot of people talk about. And I am lmao to the person who thumb down my comment about browns, your funny

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    1. LOL wasn’t me who gave it the thumbs down. I saw him play a bunch in his Reading season I didn’t see anything there that said he wasn’t going to adjust. He basically hit everything they threw at him.

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    1. Brown not in today;s lineup.
      I took a some criticism for suggesting last week to keep Altherr here in Philly for the duration of the season, since his defense and arm equal or better some current outfielders on the team. Who knows…..he could be coming back soon.

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  30. See on MLBTR that Angels may be looking for a closer and LHP setup guy….Phillies have both..Paps and Bastardo.
    Maybe take the struggling AA Kaleb Cowart off their hands.

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    2. They mention bastardo and paps, I Would love a outfield prospect, lower a just someone with some upside,

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