105 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 6-9-2014 – Wow, It’s Thursday The 12th Edition

  1. Here is my straw man on how I would turn around the Phillies. Feel free to rip my plan to shreds.

    1. I believe they can get a very good young player/prospect for Papelbon. He has been a lights out closer. Yes, he has 2 more years left at a high salary, but look at the closers for the competing teams and you see a lot of bad pitchers. I bet Detroit would do Paps for Joe Nathan (he of the 7+ era and is owed $10 mil next year) and Nick Castellanos. Yankees and Angels also need a closer badly.

    2. I would play king maker and offer Hamels & Lee to any team willing to trade their top 6 prospects. I know that is a huge price to pay of prospects, and a lot of salary to take on, but to get 2 aces at the top of your rotation in one trade never happens! And these guys aren’t rentals. Note, they would have to be great prospects, or I would trade them to different teams.

    3. I would trade Ryan Howard + $17 mil per year for the remainder of his contract to an AL club for a middle reliever and plug Ruf in at 1b and save myself $6 mil per year.

    4. I would trade Utley and get a top prospect or two.

    5. I would then go to Jimmy and say, we are going to be bad for 2+ years. You are our franchise hit king now..go win a championship. I would trade him for some low A ballers with high upside or a young reliever.

    6. I would trade Ruiz and Byrd. I actually think that you can get value out of them. Might have to throw in some money, but not much. Both are priced fairly relative to their production IMO.

    I call this the Hinkie plan. 🙂

    Bash away!

          1. Common sense. Why would these guys want to finish careers on a 100 loss team when they can go to the playoffs. They have tasted victory and know how sweet it is

            1. They already have rings. At this point, unless I’m corrected by them by quotes to the media, they don’t need multiple rings to pad their resumes.

            2. Also, you’re straight salary dumping them. They have more value being on your team performing that you would trading them.

            3. Riggs – it is clear that you are not an athlete. Anyone who is a competitor would never look at one championship and say..”that’s enough. I don’t need more.”

            4. Look, whatever YOUR experience as an athlete was, it’s clear that, for major league players, playing on a “winner” is only one consideration. Your “common sense” is contrary to the actual evidence. All the real evidence – including the recent below market contract extension (and it was clearly below market even at the time it was signed) – point to the simple fact that Utley wants to close out his career with the Phillies. If he wanted to “play for a winner,” he would have gone on the market this past off season.

              Rollins, of course, is in a somewhat different boat, but has been very vocal about wanting to stay with the Phillies. But who knows? I find it a little more plausible that he might agree to atrade despite that. But why? As even you seem to acknowledge, we wouldn’t get much back. Trading him anyway was a plausible option when it looked like we had a decent short term replacement in Galvis. But now, with no plausible replacements, what would be the point? Spend his 2014 salary on a less accomplished FA SS without his long term ties to the team? Why?

    1. Teams hoard their prospects nowadays. The last time a team gave up a king’s ransom in prospects for an established player, it was the Phillies in the Pence deal. I just don’t see any team offering the Phils premium prospects for anyone on the current roster. I could see Papelbon bringing in a mid-level prospect if the Phils kick in some money. Cliff Lee may become attractive if he can get healthy and prove it. Maybe Hamels, given the way he’s been pitching lately…

      1. G$…..Mets alone did well trading two vets….Wheeler for Beltran, Blue Jays for Dickey

      2. That’s because aces in their prime that are non rentals are never traded. Look what Shields got and he is not of the same caliber of either Lee or Hamels.

        1. I don’t agree with everything you write, but I agree with this. If Lee and Hamels are healthy, some team that needs starting pitching at the trade deadline might provide a very attractive package to get one of these guys. All things being equal, if they move in this direction (and they probably should), I’d much prefer that they trade Lee (even though he is one of my favorite pitchers of all time). The goal, I would hope, would be to turn things around in a way so that the team is competive in 2016 (it would be hard, but it’s not impossible), if so, trading Hamels would be counterproductive.

        2. Come on, are you serious? The Rays got the haul they did for Shields because of his salary. $9 mil a year for him compared to 22.5 for Hamels and 25 for Lee.

          1. Shields is making $13.5 this year and is in a walk year. Hamels and Lee, while more expensive, they are better pitchers, are tied up for a while and are playoff proven. You couldn’t find a GM out there that would take Shields over Hamels or Lee.

            1. Though of course the equation would change if you kicked in enough salary. As it is, the extra years at those prices make both players worth LESS than they would be if they were only signed through this season.

            2. And while I beleive I am correct in the above, it was a little too glib. Let me add:

              (1) A healthy Lee might be more attractive than Shields, despite the salary, yes for the reasons you state. But he isn’t, and even a solid return before the deadline won’t fully allay the concerns.

              (2) Hamels is a trickier proposition. Of course he is healthy, a plus over Lee. ANd younger. But he isn’t as good as Lee, and there’s a lot more money left on that contract. But I COULD be wrong about his value relative to Shields. Though I doubt it. Side issue: would teams be concerned about his recent useage? Adveraging around 120 pitches per start over the past 4 starts.

              (3) BIG BUTS (two of them) (a) You’re talking abouty Shields now versus when he was acquired. BIG difference between 1/2 of a season and 2 seasons (at an under market rate). (b) The Shields deal was a notorious overpay. Chances of finding a sucker to make that kind of deal for Lee or Hamels: quite low. Especially since thew teams which might have interest are far better organizations than KC.

            3. Shields was going to get 9 mil the year he was traded and had 3 years left of control with only marginal increases each year. Baseball Reference is your friend. Hamels has a ton of years left with his contract but he’s scheduled to make over double what Shields was during those years, hence the high return in the trade.

    2. 1. I agree the team can get something significant for Papelbon
      2. Can’t happen. No team can take on those two big salaries. Far better odds to trade one and then trade the other to the rival of the first team.
      3. That might be enough $ and little enough return to move him
      4. I think you can get a top prospect for Utley. Doubt two. Doubt the Phillies can take the PR/attendance hit of such a trade. The fans love Utley. That’s worth something to the team.
      5. It sounds like you think of the Rollins trade as a salary dump. We really aren’t hurting for $, especially with your other trades, so the only way this makes any sense is if what we get for him actually has real future value to the major league team, as in must produce a future starting pitcher or position player. If the high-A players have enough probability of reaching their ceiling, i.e. more like a real Crawford or Quinn level prospect, than a dream-upon prospect like Zach Green or Tocci, then fine.
      6. Okay. I think the future year $ overhang hurts you, especially with Ruiz.
      7. In all cases, the key to getting any real return for these guys is eating the remainder of their 2014 salary. Teams don’t have a ton of current year budget flexibility in most cases. Also, it is easy to imagine higher returns than are actually possible, by focusing on bad deals like our acquiring Pence and convincing oneself that they are repeatable. How valuable is Howard, really. His OPS is hovering right around .700 this year and has been gradually sinking year by year. Who wants to pay even $7 million, or league-minimum for that matter, for a DH who will be below .700 OPS before his contract is over. I really don’t see why any contender would covet Howard. He is pretty much dead weight. You badly want him gone, to the extent of paying most of his salary, when we don’t have a truly solid guy to replace him. That says a lot about the guys worth.

    3. Agree…viagra…..also Utley could be a wanted commodity by the two West Coast NL team…Giants and Dodgers. If I were Ruben, I would have a bidding campaign started bewteen Brian Sabean and Ned Colletti.
      As for Rollins, once he waives his NTC, I think his hometown A’s is what he would prefer….Jed Lowrie could speel some relief.

    4. So many problems with this. Let me focus on one of many.

      Howard is absolutely untradeable. If you paid 90% of his salary, AND threw in a prospect, you MIGHT find a team toi take him off your hands (for nothing in return, of course). But probably not.

      The analogy here is to basketball trades where a player is traded to another team in a pure salary dump, often along with a pick, and immedately released. That is, any trade involving Howard would consist of trading Howard plus value to a team that would then immediately release him. Of course the better move – a move that the Phillies should make but won’t – is to just release him. (Those kind of trades occur in Basketball because of the way the salary cap works – baseball doesn’t work that way.)

      No one would want to waste a roster spot on Howard. One can, I suppose, make a (dubious) case that he is better than a few players currently on major league rosters. But the history hurts him – as a back of the bench reserve on an AL team, maybe occassional DH, he would be a distraction. Better have a slightly lesser player who will be happy in such a limited role.

  2. Does anyone really trust this organization to make the right choices in a fire sale? I certainly don’t. Here’s an exercise. Name a prospect for whom the Phillies have traded in the last 40 years who ended up being worth even a few WAR for his career with the team. I can only think of two off the top of my head: Vicente Padilla. Otherwise, every prospect the team has traded for has turned out to be a stiff.

    (Alternately, another exercise: If you’re picking players for your beer league softball team, and you’re down to Tyson Gillies and CJ Henry, whom do you pick?)

    The Phils have had some success trading for young vets: Kruk, Dykstra, Abreu, Polanco and Rowand immediately come to mind. But when it comes to evaluating young, unproven talent in trades, this franchise seems to be completely blind.

    1. Abreu was essentially a prospect when they traded for him – he had no major league experience to speak of. I’m not an Ed Wade fan, but that’ was a great deal on his part (Wade apparently orchestrated and pushed for that deal even though he was not the GM at the time).

    2. There’s a huge difference between trading to dump salary and trading to add prospects. All of the trades you mention were done to cut salary in the current year. That won’t get you much by way of profits. Still… were the prospects from Seattle simply awful (they had decent to good stats when we acquired them) or did the Phillies instructional personnel fail to finish their development, as they seem now to be doing with Franco and Biddle and previously did with Brown. A lot of the Phillies woes need to be laid at the door of the developmental staff. The results have been pretty awful.

  3. How many firesale-type trades have they made though? I also dont know if I would have considered Abreu a “young vet” has he had just over the rookie minimum abs when they got him. Funny you mention padilla bc that trade was an abortion.

    I agree they have to get the right guys, but they have to try. Can’t let a ship continue to sink just because you don’t trust the captain.

    1. If the Schilling trade was an “abortion” (not the best choice of words, if you ask me), then what do you call the Abreu trade? Lee-to-Seattle? Pence-to-SF? At least the Schilling trade got you a couple of warm bodies and an above average pitcher.

      1. Pence to SF isn’t in the same category as those other two. They got solid value for him. And the Schilling trade was terrible. They may have gotten a couple warm bodies but in an era when teams weren’t afraid to trade prospects the way they are now, they didn’t get very much. 3 of the guys they got were 25 or older and they hadn’t even accomplished much of anything in the majors by then.

        1. I’m not saying it was a great trade. It was horrible. The example serves my point: This franchise is terrible at evaluating prospects. The franchise hasn’t received a prospect even close to Padilla in the decade before or since.

      2. I Thought we got a twenty game loser, a wasted up prospect lee, a drunk padilla, and a relief for schilling, a difference making for a pennant contender, who was the above average pitcher??I forgot who that would be, can you help me?

  4. The Tigers are not trading Castellanos for Papelbon for starters. That ship has sailed long ago.You may get them to give you Domingo Leyba if you eat most of his Salary. Or with Wally Joyner now there as the hitting coach he may convince Dave he can fix Brown. Adding him to the deal may return something higher on the ladder.

    The Yankee catching prospect Sanchez would be a good get but not likely they are giving him up for anything less than Lee or Hamels and I’m not sure he would be worth it. Aaron Judge is another guy it would be nice to get. He is tearing up the Sally right now and the Yankees are always willing to go all in.

    The Dodgers have Joc Pederson who would be an excellent get and could probably play right now but they would probably much rather get rid of Kemp or Ethier to make room for Pederson to play alongside Puig.

    What about the A’s and Billy is still trying to win the last game of the season. Never afraid to deal prospects he could be enticed and I say could to give up Addison Russell for Lee. Of course you must expect to eat most of that salary.

    I don’t think you try to land a windfall of prospect as much as you try to land a bonafide star of the future.

    And at this point with Lee not pitching it becomes even more difficult to get anything of value for him. I guess keep an eye on Burnett and how he pitches leading up to the trade DL. The Orioles may be willing to deal us home grown Prospect Christian Walker or possibly Brandon Kline.

    But then we are not the only team with chips. David Price, Samardzija and Shields are all in play.

    1. that was just a very good post with very good points all around. realistic prospect talk as well. solid job. would love pederson, and i watned them to try to get him for utley last year

    2. I don’t believe you get Castellanos, or close to him, for Pap, but, if you eat $, you can get a nice piece. Pap and Rollins would help the Tigers a lot, but JRoll won’t, I believe, agree to go there.

    3. You missed the point where I said that we also take back Joe Nathan’s $10m per year contract in the Paps trade to Detroit. That’s a big part of the value.

    4. Rollins will only get you someone like Michael Ynoa from the As….he is currently rebounding, but running out of options soon and will be in the Rule 5…so he can be had for a Rollins.

  5. Interesting factoid about Lee tho. When you look at all the times he was traded which of all the players returned for him has started more than a full season in the big leagues…

    1. If you don’t pay remainder of current year salary, you aren’t getting back very much when you move a big salary guy. That’s just the way things tend to go.

  6. The most valuable asset is Utley, because of his recent production, reputation and team friendly contract. Hopefully a desparate team will give a couple of decent prospects (including one in the 50-100 range). After that, assuming they are performing well close to the deadline, Papelbon and Burnett could bring a borderline top 100 prospect if we eat money. Maybe Rollins or Kendrick brings back a lottery ticket or 2. Hopefully Lee gets healthy, although he could be traded in August (or even let go for salary relief). As many have mentioned, the problem is that Amaro is the man pulling the trigger.

    1. The hope is that the Dodgers, Giants, A’s all want Utley. Not only for his skills but his leadership. It is then realistic to get a high level prospect, like a Russell, Pederson, Giants Pitcher. I exclude Toronto and the Cards because I doubt he would agree to go there. And I include the Dodgers because they have a leadership void, are behind the Giants, and are desperate, I hope, to win

        1. I love the idea of getting a few AA pitchers for Utley. But I would take Joc Pederson over anyone out there. He is a friggin stud. Potentially a cornerstone to build around.

        2. Sabean and Colletti will duke it out over Utley….but will Ruben facilitate?

          Ruben did say today on another note Perkins , if he keeps hitting, even without the pop, may make for some competition in LF.

          1. That’s probably more of a comment on Brown than on Perkins.

            Brown isn’t as bad as he has been playing – he can’t be – but, based on his 2014 production, replacing him with a replacement level player would yield an extra 2 1/2 wins over the course of a full season.

            1. That is what I thought….in response, Tom McCarthy and Jaime Moyer were in cricket mode until the next subject came up.

    2. More realistic than most of the comments around here. Probably a little optimistic about Papelbon though. That contract is toxic, and he is probably pitching over his head this season (whether using the “eye test” or modern metrics.

      1. Interesting. I thought Paps was pitching over his head too, but the more I watched, the more I realized that was not entirely the case. Pap’s season show the power of having a fastball that has above average velocity, plus movement and plus command, combined with a breaking ball that is difficult to hit and can keep a batter guessing. I think he can be very successful with his current complement of pitches, but he cannot afford virtually any degradation in the velocity of his FB – if he’s pitching at 90-93, he can definitely continue to make it work. At 89-91, I think he’ll have big time problems. If I’m the Phillies, I either want someone to take all or virtually all of his salary for a few “C” prospects with some ceiling, or I’ll eat half the salary and take a better package of prospects. Paps could definitely help a contender this year.

  7. Excluding last season, I’ve generally considered Hamels to be a Top 10-15 pitcher in all of baseball. The one thing that has prevented his being in the CY discussion annually is that he has given up too many long balls. So far this season, though, Cole has been very stingy with homers. If this trend continues, 2014 may be a very special season for Hamels.

    (The only time in his career that Hamels had a low HR/9 was 2011, prior to his going on the DL. He was in the CY conversation that year. Unfortunately for him, Hamels had two teammates who pitched a little better, and there was a guy out in LA who won pitching’s Triple Crown.)

  8. Lee and Hamels would net more in separate trades than they would combined in 1. But we’re all wasting out time talking about Utley and Hamels, they are said yesterday they’ll listen on anyone EXCEPT the two of them. What a good strategy Ruben you moron.

    1. Walk requires balls outside the plate….all pitchers throw him strikes without fear..

  9. Silly season again.

    The one guy at this point who can get us something decent is Utley (Lee’s value will be down because of injury concerns, even if he manages a couple of good starts before the deadline; Hamels is probably not on the block). And yes, Utley could fetch a good prospect, but not mutiple good prospects (perhaps one top 50 and a couple of lottery tickets or low ceiling types). And no, we’re not getting Pederson for him, or the equivelant.

    Probably a moot point as I don’t believe for a minute that he’ll agree to be traded. To be clear, I would (somewhat reluctantly) trade him if we get a good offer and if he agrees to the trade. Probably won’t happen, and if it does, we’re not getting the kind of prospect that some of you guys are imagining.

    Papelbon might be tradeable this year, as opposed to last year where we couldn’t have gotten a bag of baseballs for him. But we’re looking at maybe a “C” level prospect. And might have to kick salary in also. Maybe a lot.

    Mind you, I do think Amaro should be actively shopping pretty much everyone. But between guys whose approval is needed for a deal, players who are untradable, and players who won’t get much in return … don’t expect much. Maybe Byrd and/or Burnett get traded for a couple of relief pitcher prospects or potential bench guys. Ruiz is maybe a guy who could go for a “B” prospect.

    1. In fact, if I’m right about Utley (won’t agree to a trade), Lee (value down because of injury) and Hamels (not on the table absent an absurd overpay for him), Ruiz may have the most trade value of anyone on the major league roster.

      1. If this season continues to spiral downward, sweeping the Padres notwithstanding, a smart baseball guy like Utley may have had enough. I can see him agreeing to go home. SF and the A’s and maybe the Dodgers. He would bring a Top 50/40/35? prospect, I believe.

        1. Hey, I could be wrong.

          I’m thinking 40 to 50 range at best. Could be wrong about that also, though I don’t think I am. The one variable I guess is a bidding war between SF and LA – overpay to stop him from going to your rival. Probably wishful thinking.

          The other positive factor, aside from the rivalry aspect, is that, while neither of those are bad organizations, neither are among the organizations with a particular adversion to trading prospects. Just the normal adversion. 🙂

          1. Thinking about the Dodgers because Mattingly just publicly bemoaned the lack of leadership and they want to win now. And, Utley is a competitor and I think realizes it is not getting fixed here anytime soon. And, A’s need to win something other than the Division. I hate having to trade Utley, but he is only one who brings a good player. Maybe Lee? but I think Utley gets the better prospect.

            1. All the more reason for Ruben to fleece Ned Colletti and the Bums.
              Utley should easily get Pedersen, but maybe also another high Dodger prospect.

            2. See, Romus’ comment illustrates what a tough spot the organization is in and why Utley probably won’t be traded. If the fan base thinks “Utley should easily get Pedersen, but maybe also another high Dodger prospect,” they WILL be disapointed by the actual return.

              Pederson alone is a MASSIVE overpay – not only potentially tens of millions of excess value over his controllable years, but possibly as valuable as Utley for the team even in the short run. Or close to it. The only reasons it is (barely) in the realm of the possible is competition from SF plus the possibility that Colletti buys the veteran leadership stuff (particularly strange with Utley; a great, great “make up” guy, but NOT a vocal clubhouse guy or “leader” type, except by example).

              And so the more likely possibility – say Zach Lee and a coupleof lottery tickets – will be bound to disappoint.

              So Amaro faces the following:

              (1) Trading a very popular player (loved by SABR types AND the WIP crowd), one of the few players on the team who might actually be bringing some people to the park,
              (2) Who happens to be the team’s best position player, and maybe best overall,
              (3) For a prospect who will be perceived by many fans as being an inadequate return.

              Does Amaro do that? Arguably he should. Likely he won’t. Even if Utley agrees.

            3. I mean, I know I’m sort of beating a dead horse on this one .. I mean, I understand why people WANT to get Pederson, but not why anyone thinks it is remotely realistic. The more I look at it, the more I think some of my earlier “well it could happen but is unlikely to” comments were overly optimistic. Prospects like Pederson is now – major league ready and a potential star – just don’t get traded. Maybe as the centerpiece for a pre-FA star in his prime. But not for a 35 year old second baseman, not even one as good as Utley & with a relatively team friendly contract.

            4. LarryM…..teams that are on a verge of winning the WS will do desperate measures to increase this probability.

            5. Except that they don’t. Or, rarely do so, and increasing less so. I know people SAY that teams do that, but it (mostly) isn’t true. And when they do, the guy they trade away almost always is someone who isn’t going to contribute that season. Pederson is ready now.

              Add together the fact that even a very good player like Utley isn’t going to increase the odds much under the best of circumstances – less so given that Pederson, if not traded, WILL come up and probably help, maybe a lot, THIS year … it would be lunacy.

              It would be the most lopsided trade (at least from the perspective of facts known at the time) since … well, since the Phillies traded for Pence. And at least there, there was some (misguided) logic – the guys traded by the Phillies were years away from contributing at the major league level.

        2. Interestingly, per Sickles, Pederson is exactly at 40 (preseason). But I don’t see him is realisitic. His stock has probably risen given how well he has played. Thoguh I don’t like the K%.

          1. Dodgers were 3rd on my list. And, you may be right on about Pederson, he is now probably higher than 40. Also, they have Dee Gordon at 2d. But A’s and Giants have legitimate prospects. Giants have a couple of pitchers and the A’s have Addison Russell and a couple of others. Both really need 2d base help. What would be realistic, not where everyone praises the Phils and thinks other teams are morons?

            1. To be clear, IF Utley consents to a deal, and IF Amaro is willing to suffer some fan backlash, I DO beleive there will be a deal worth doing for him before the deadline. Just not for a player of Pederson’s caliber. But for a number of reasons (production, health, needs of contending teams, contract status) I think he has more trade value than he had last summer despite being a year older.

        3. ”’
          I am asking a question in response to we wont get a top prospect, two years ago,headley was only going for a top package, is he worth it now. same with boujous, prospect are just that prospect, and teams trying to win would part for the right player, especially if they have more than one prospect at that postion, giants are loaded with pitching and you can tell me utley isnt worth a top pitching prospect and a good infielding prospect in there top 20. i just dont buy it,

  10. Phillies are winning 4-2 bottom of 7. Does Ryne save Giles for the 9th since Papelbon doesn’t like to go 3 days in a row?

    1. never mind Mayberry just broke it open with a 3 run jack. I’m sure he still gets in this game it just won’t be as exciting for his MLB debut.

  11. Its only June 12th, but watching the Phillies and Padres feels like a Sept 30th game, if you know what I mean..

    1. Perhaps, but that’s the last team you want to deal with. May be the team least likely to give up decent prospects for veterans.

    1. If we’re gonna lose I want to be best at and finish worst overall. Draft a legit #1 SP with ceiling like Mike Mattuela or whoever shows more over the next year to possibly move up and then get them in for at least half a million under slot and use that to get a very premium HS tough sign with the 2nd pick.

      1. I hope you are not suggesting that a Philadelphia team ‘tanks’ to draw a favorable drafting position!
        Philadelphia teams do not tank.

  12. Phillies shouldn’t trade Utley , Hamels or cooch.I live 20 mins from Philly. Nobody would go to games. there’s not that many prospects ready to bring up. I can see J roll to Oakland for Nolan Sanburn. Boston is hurting for outfield help so maybe Byrd for Brain Johnson. The Yankees Wil play any contacts so maybe Lee or Papelbon for Robertson ,Ian Clarkin. Howard you can trade but the phillies would have to eat have his contract. This isn, t salary dumping it’s getting younger.This team right now isn’t built for the future . Utley will be a coach here some day. After the Cubs the schedule will tell if we’re Sellars or not.

    1. Prior to Cashman, yes the Yankees would’ve traded any prospects to acquire a player to help the MLB team. Since then what have they shown that they would be “all in” to get a player? They’re using the FA market now and hoarding their players. Outside of Sanchez, what over hyped prospect of theirs is worth coverting?

    2. Anyone that says no to trading Utley I can’t take seriously. How can you in one sentence say to not trade Utley, Hamels and Ruiz and then mention that there are no players ready to call up. Nobody will go to games? Hello? Nobody has BEEN going. Utley and Hamels are the pieces that could net the biggest return, but loyalty to Utley is only going to slow down the rebuilding process. With the state of this team, Utley does nothing for us even into 2015 and 2016. Time to let go people.

  13. Where does everyone rank Nola as a Phillies prospect? I still think Crawford is number one, but Nola is likely 2 or, just after Franco at 3. I’d have him ranked second based on what I know, although he could fall if he doesn’t do well the latter half of the year. Unlikely to supplant Crawford as # 1 unless we’re convinced he’s got ace upside (which does not sound likely) or Crawford plays the rest of the year as he did in early June (doubt that too – too much talent for that to last much longer and appears to be working out of it now).

    1. I give Crawford an 80% chance of being our #1 prospect at the end of the year, with an injury likely being the most likely reason if he is not #1.

      I don’t think I would be ready to put Nola at #2, even if he does perform well this summer. The only way I could realistically see that happening is if Nola posts a sub-2.0 ERA with very good peripherals, and Franco continues to really struggle. In my unscientific opinion, I will give Nola a 1 in 4 chance of being at #2 at the end of the year.

      1. The reason I had him #2 is that, with the poor/subpar performances of Franco and Biddle, there’s a pretty bid vacuum after Crawford right now. I’m guardedly optimistic these two guys can turn their seasons around. Franco has a ton of talent, that much I know.

          1. No.

            I could spend a couple of hundred words explaining why he’s closer to 15 than to 5, but suffice it to say that, even with the most optimistic take on ,PErkins, there are six guys well ahead of him – Franco, Biddle, Crawford, Nola, Quinn and Grullon. Once we get past those 6, there’s a lot of room for argument.

            1. Yeah, I have to say that I agree with this. I think, in a year, a few other guys may be ranked as high as those in this group (including one or more of the other Lakewood guys and maybe even Tommy Joseph or Kelly Dugan, if they can get back on the field) and a few guys might fall out of the group, but for now, these six are in a class by themselves.

          2. I never remember him striking out three times like last night. He right now is a single double hitter, with not a lot of speed and limited power, but in this bad batch of prospect , he might be top ten. most guys mention. have more potential, but haven’t proven it yet ,how you can rate Grullon ahead of a polish at least college and now minor league hitter like Perkins. is just a opinion, no facts to back it up.

            1. Well if a guy whose CEILING is likely 4th OF and at a stretch second-division corner OF starter, our system is really, really weak — even weaker than I’ve said it is, if Perkins is top 10. How is a polished college kid rated lower than top 10? Whatever happened to Susdorf and Rizzotti, and Murphy? A corner OF who lacks both speed and HR power is not a top prospect.

    2. A week ago I wasn’t sure if I’d have Nola at 3 or 4, but Biddle’s recent and continued struggles have convinced me to rank him 3rd.

  14. Perkins is the most mlb ready as far as outfielder’s go. Crawford still #3 I think because a ss and has a lot of upside. Trading Utley will not bring a stud prospect maybe a good one. That won’t rebuild the phillies if the philles could unload the big contacts aka Lee, Howard , Papelbon maybe Adams. That would be Hugh that would free up money.

  15. “Yeah, we were checking it out. In fact Schmitty was in the booth yesterday when we were talking about it, and, um, I think it’s about a thousand difference in, ah, plate appearances. Pretty amazing. But their batting averages aren’t that different, which is kind of… weird. I don’t quite understand it.”

    You know, despite being severely critical of Amaro, I’ve defended him from time to time. But this … wow. He’s clearly innumerate. and probably not very smart.

  16. Unfortunately only one trade is needed to jump start this club back in contention in maybe 2 years…..Chase to the highest bidder between Ned Colletti and Brian Sabean.
    Neither will let the other get their hands on Chase for their WS rings ambitions, and a king’s ransom awaits Ruben if he plays it out correctly.
    Chase has home and family in both LA and the Bay area

  17. Chase vs the Best at Second: Does he have the Hall waiting for him?

    Chase Utley-As of 2014- AB-5161- AVG:.288 HR:222 RBI:840 OBP:373 SLG:.497 OPS+:127 HITS:1486 RUNS: 887 FLD%:.982 SB: 130

    1. Rogers Hornsby- AB: 8173 AVG:.358 HR: 301 RBI: 1584 OBP: .434 SLG: .577 OPS+: 175 HITS: 2930 RUNS: 1579 FLD %: .965 SB: 135

    2. Charlie Gehringer- AB: 8860 AVG:.320 HR: 184 RBI: 1427 OBP: .404 SLG: .480 OPS+: 124 HITS: 2839 RUNS: 1774 FLD %: .976 SB: 181

    3. Nap Lajoie – AB: 9589 AVG:.338 HR: 83 RBI: 1599 OBP: .380 SLG: .467 OPS+: 150 HITS: 3242 RUNS: 1504 FLD %: .963 SB: 380

    4. Eddie Collins- AB: 9949 AVG:.333 HR: 47 RBI: 1300 OBP: .424 SLG: .429 OPS+: 141 HITS: 3315 RUNS: 1821 FLD %: .970 SB: 744

    5. Frankie Frisch- AB: 9112 AVG:.316 HR: 105 RBI: 1244 OBP: .369 SLG: .432 OPS+: 111 HITS: 2880 RUNS: 1532 FLD %: .974 SB: 419

    6. Joe Morgan – AB: 9277 AVG:.271 HR: 268 RBI: 1133 OBP: .392 SLG: .427 OPS+: 132 HITS: 2517 RUNS: 1650 FLD %: .981 SB: 689

    7. Rod Carew- AB: 9315 AVG:.328 HR: 92 RBI: 1015 OBP: .393 SLG: .429 OPS+: 131 HITS: 3053 RUNS: 1424 FLD %: .973 SB: 353

    8. Ryne Sandberg- AB: 8355 AVG:.285 HR: 282 RBI: 1064 OBP: .344 SLG: .452 OPS+: 114 HITS: 2386 RUNS: 1318 FLD %: .989 SB: 344

    9 Jackie Robinson- AB: 4877 AVG:.311 HR: 137 RBI: 734 OBP: .409 SLG: .474 OPS+: 132 HITS: 1518 RUNS: 947 FLD %: .983 SB: 197

    10.Bobby Doerr- AB: 7093 AVG: 288 HR: 223 RBI: 1247 RBI/YR: 108 OBP: .362 SLG: .461 OPS+: 115 HITS: 2042 FLD %: .980 SB: 54

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