Draft Reaction Rounds 3-10

There really isn’t a good time to evaluate a draft class, so I am not going to call this win or a loss for the Phillies, and with 30 more picks to go there still could be some surprises.  With that, I will say I like it because they stuck to a board so far and aren’t being fancy, taking guys who fall without putting their whole draft on one player.  I am not reading too much into the amount of college players, and it is impossible to know whether they targeted college players or it just fell that way without seeing their draft board.

Aaron Brown – The Phillies are sticking him in the OF for now (he could end up a reliever if that fails), and he probably starts in CF, though RF is likely the long term position given his arm strength.  Brown is still pretty raw as a hitter, with an approach that struggles against off speed pitches, but big time power.  The Phillies will likely bring him along slow, but he has more upside than most 3rd round college hitters.

Chris Oliver – Oliver could be a big steal in the 4th round as he has a low mileage arm and good stuff topped with a 93-94 mph FB, that has touchd 97 out of the bullpen.  The slider flashes plus and there is some feel for an average changeup as well.  If the Phillies can smooth out the mechanics and continue the starter transition, Oliver could be a mid-rotation starter.  If not, they could ppush him back to the bullpen and fast track him as a reliever.

Rhys Hoskins – A Cape Cod League stud, Hoskins has big time power, and a good feel for hitting.  He likely will end up at first base long term, but college first baseman can hit, cna sometime surprise.  He’ll need to mash to have value, but worth keeping an eye on.

Brandon Leibrandt – A college pitchability lefty, more back end starter, but good bloodlines, could be a bit underslot here.  He missed most of 2013 due to injury (struck by a ball), so he could be a surprise if he can add a bit in pro-ball.

Emmanuel Marero – Best defensive college shortstop in the draft, not much on offense, but if you can pick it you have a chance as a utility player, not bad for the 7th round.

Sam McWilliams – The most exciting pick so far.  Pop up guy who showed in consistent jumps in velocity up to 93-94.  Feel for a breaking ball, and a frame (6′ 7″ 190 lbs) that screams projection.  He is considered highly signable, could move slowly, but fits lottery ticket profile.

Matt Hockenberry – Senior sign, blame the system

Matt Shortall More money saving

Expect a prep pick in 11th and the normal mix of org filling seniors and signability guys over the next 30 picks

 

 

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

22 thoughts on “Draft Reaction Rounds 3-10

  1. Matt….9 of 10 college guys drafted…..has this happened in the Phillies past drafts?

    1. I don’t think so, without knowing their board, hard to know if it was strategy, or just how it fell to them. Individually each pick is fine where it is, they didn’t reach at any point

      1. I know every draft pick is a gamble but overall I like the draft direction and quality. It is good to hear that you like the draft so far also with all the young talent in the low levels.

  2. I like the picks in rounds 4 and 8. Really dislike no HS in first 3 rounds. A rather disappointing day two.

  3. 9/10 college players is pretty strong evidence that they were favoring college players on their draft board, assuming it’s usually about 50-50.

  4. I have no problem with Phils draft so far. Could be a couple arms who move pretty fast. I like the brown pick as well. He fits the toolsy player the team usually looks for out of HS.

    1. Why is a ‘toolsy’ college pick a good thing? And why worth round 3? The thing with a toolsy HS pick is he at least has more time to learn to develop his tools and you can argue that he has never had really good instruction, as most HS coaches aren’t great hitting teachers. But… for a college kid to still be ‘toolsy’ and inept on off-speed stuff, means a college staff has tried to teach him for several years and he hasn’t been able to learn. Not an absolute rule, but in general, if he ain’t learned it yet at that point, he isn’t capable of learning it. As players age, their ceiling and floor converge more and more, thus the ceiling for the unfulfilled collegian isn’t what it is for the toolsy HS kid. The advantage of choosing college kids is to have a bocy of positive stats to look at, so that among the athletic kids, with a flashy tool or two the chaff has been winnowed from the wheat. If you are still looking for wheat in the pile of chaff in round 3, that’s a problem. I hate the raving over batting practice power, dislike the starting in CF but probably doesn’t fit there long-term, maybe he should be a pitcher? Far better to take a high ceiling HS kid in that spot. Second choice would be a college kid with more of a sense of where he is, more actual stat accomplishment, and less reliance on batting practice toolsy. This guy is probably my least favorite draft day primo pick since Hewitt. I don’t have as clear a memory of my reaction to Hudson as to Hewitt, so won’t include him.

  5. I’m pretty much digging this draft also. Nola is what he is, and frankly, they could have done a lot worse if they tried too hard. Imhof is maybe a disappointment because you’d like to see upside, but as a pick at 47 I don’t have a gripe. I could do without DUI folks, as I personally have little tolerance for such reckless behavior, but if he learns the lesson and performs on the field, it’s fine as a pick and coul make that pick a steal. I just wish guys like that wouldn’t get rewarded for a selfish and dangerous act.

    1. I wouldn’t say he was rewarded; he still got drafted, but he dropped way down, and the mistake will likely cost him a couple hundred thousand.

      1. Sure. That is true. Still he was basically handed a giant pile of money days after endangering himself and strangers for lack of the ability to call a cab. And guys who do PEDs, which hurt, generally, no one but the user and the man he beats out for a job, get suspended for nearly a third of a season. That’s more a criticism of MLB an MLBPA bargaining agreement than it is the player in question.

  6. I think the Phillies did well to get a bunch of college guys that are still projectable – kinda like the best of both worlds. I imagine there’s going to be a lot of shuffling around the Lakewood roster to accommodate these college players.

  7. I like it too I was getting sick of pitchers that couldn’t throw a strike. It seems like has a hole the picks pound the strike zone.the phillies do better with college hitters aka Utley , Howard, Ashe, Ruf, Byrd, Perkins. The phillies Web site has a story on each player. The Temple pitcher shout out 16 raked Houston. Plus Imhof was 1st baseman when he started at college. He,s only been pitching for 3 hrs. thier’s a lot of talent out there. I think Brown will be a better pitcher, late ing guy do to his aggressive nature.

    1. I’d be happier with Brown as a pitcher, but the Phillies drafted him as a CF. As with Savery and James going the other way, past a certain point it’s hard to switch successfully if he can’t make it as a CF.

      1. Sean Doolittle, Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Jason Motte and others did just fine. It’s easier to go from the field to the mound than the other way around.

  8. IMO, the Phillies were trying to emulate the Cardinals philosophy to some degree with the college inundated selections at the top. The difference I see is that most of the Cardinals success with the college guys came in the later rounds.

  9. I like the Nola and imhof picks, this organization is screaming for starting pitching and both of these guys have a chance to be in Philly in 2016. Brown in round 3 is a bit of a head scratcher for me. As a full time hitter, it will take him awhile and he’s already 22 so time is short. Oliver and McWilliams could both be legit arms though so it looks good to me. Let’s get these college guys signed and get CWater’s roster turned over

    1. I also like the Nola and Imhoff picks. Oliver also a nice collegiate pitcher to pick up. Getting a tall, projectable HS pitcher in round 8 is great, especially since he seems determined to sign. That is a coup.

    2. Yeah because the main goal of the draft was to fix Clearwater’s roster. Only guy I can see going there is Nola and he will probably be on an innings limit.

  10. Aaron Brown tonight/last night against TCU: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 K and win #13 to move to 13-1 with a 1.95 ERA. 1/3 with a walk and a double.

    Thornhill went 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K and a win against Houston the other day.

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