Monthly Archives: May 2014

Box Score Recap – 5/23/2014

Box Score Recap

Dylan Cozens went deep twice for Lakewood to up his season total to seven, while Samuel Hiciano hit his fifth and went 3-5. Carlos Tocci, J.P. Crawford and Wilmer Oberto all added multi-hit games as well, but Alejandro Arteaga got beat up pretty good by West Virginia.

Hoby Milner put up a nice line, giving up just 3H, 2BB and 5K in 6.1IP. He threw a solid 71% of his pitches for strikes. Edgar Duran was 4-5 and hit a 12th inning HR to give the RPhils the lead, and after an RBI from Brock Stassi, Nefi Ogando walked four in the bottom of the frame, but struck out two and induced a flyball to pick up what looks, on paper, like the ugliest save of the year. Stassi’s having a nice year at the plate, OPSing .869. Unfortunately, his positional inflexibility will be an issue he’ll have a hard time overcoming without adding more home run power – he’s got just 10 in nearly 900 pro PAs. That won’t play at first base, and it doesn’t seem like he can play anywhere else.

And finally, Cameron Rupp hit his first home run since returning from a month-long DL stint. Good to see that. Justin De Fratus and Ethan Martin each gave up three hits and one run in an inning of work. Sounds like some of their big league counterparts.

Continue reading Box Score Recap – 5/23/2014 →

What to Expect from David Buchanan

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With Cliff Lee‘s injury, the Phillies will call up RHP David Buchanan.  Buchanan was first drafted by the Mets in the 6th round of the 2009 draft out of Junior College, Buchanan didn’t sign.  The Phillies draft Buchanan in the 7th Round of the 2010 draft and signed him for $125,000.

Minor League Career:

Coming into the draft Buchanan showed a fastball that sat 92-93 that could touch 95, and a slider with good movement.  Buchanan struggled with his control in college and he lacked a changeup to give him a third pitch.

Buchanan moved through A-ball in his first season, spent all of 2012 in Reading (missing half the season with a finger injury), and split 2013 between Reading and Lehigh Valley.  Overall across 5 minor league seasons Buchanan has pitched 502 innings with a 3.98 ERA 2.85 BB/9 and 5.72 K/9. Continue reading What to Expect from David Buchanan →

Draft Board 1.0 (1-20)

2014 Draft

With just under 2 weeks until the draft, I am going to take a stab at a big board for the draft. This is not a mock draft, it does not take team needs into account and it does not factor in any signing bonus considerations. This first board is only going through the first 20 players. The next time it will go through pick 50 to encompass the Phillies 2nd round pick.

1. Brady Aiken
2. Carlos Rodon
The top two players on my board form their own tier. They may not go 1-2, but neither is falling out of the top 3. Continue reading Draft Board 1.0 (1-20) →

Box Score Recap – 5/22/2014

Box Score Recap

Running short on time here, so I’ll just say “LAKEWOOD OFFENSIVE EXPLOSION” and “LAKEWOOD PITCHING IMPLOSION” and let you all have at it. And check out Jason Parks’ article on Brandon Nimmo, who homered against CLR on Thursday. It’s behind the paywall at Baseball Prospectus.

Continue reading Box Score Recap – 5/22/2014 →

Around the System–Relief Pitchers

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Lehigh Valley

Phillippe Aumont, 25, Acquired from Seattle in 2010; 14 games; 0-1 with a 5.60ERA; 17.2IP 15H 19BB 18K; 0.76GO/AO; .246 opp. avg; 1.92WHIP; 9.7BB/9.2K per nine; .200 vs. LHH; .278 vs. RHH; .400 with RISP.  Ten walks per nine innings and getting lit up with RISP.  Not much more to say.

Justin DeFratus, 26, Phils 11th round pick in 2007; 14 games, 0-0 with a 4.20ERA; 3 saves; 15IP 17H 3BB 12K; 1.64 GO/AO; .309 opp. avg; 1.33WHIP; 1.8BB/7.2K per nine; .348 vs. LHH, .281 vs. RHH, .316 with RISP.  DeFratus is still trying to figure it out.  He has been extremely hittable this year and far less overpowering than in years past.

Kenny Giles, 23;Phils 7th round pick in 2011;  18 games between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 2-0 with a 1.29ERA; 8 saves; 21IP 11H 10BB 31K; 0.71GO/AO; .155 opp. avg; 1.00WHIP; 4.3BB/13.3K per nine;  These are simply overwhelmingly good stats.  The only brief moment of pause is a slightly elevated walk rate, but Giles has been dominant. Continue reading Around the System–Relief Pitchers →

Trying to Find Patterns in Phillies Pitching Injuries

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There has been a rash of pitching injuries across baseball from every level from the majors through the minors and amatuer ranks.  For the most part the focus has been on Tommy John injuries, but the Phillies have had larger problems with injuries to all parts of pitchers bodies.  For the most part I am going to focus on the past year and a half, but I will also pull in pitchers who have affected the last few years who were injured in previous seasons.

Cliff Lee – LHP – Age: 35
Pitches: Fastball, Curveball, Changeup, Cutter
Injury: Left Elbow Strain
Background: Lee pitched with elbow soreness for over a month.  The Phillies have opted for rest, fastball velocity down to start the year.

Jonathan Pettibone – RHP – Age: 22
Pitches: Fastball, Changeup, Slider
Injury: Torn Labrum
Background:  Pettibone was injured late in 2013 and has opted for rest over surgery. Continue reading Trying to Find Patterns in Phillies Pitching Injuries →

Box Score Recap – 5/21/2014

Box Score Recap

A light schedule Wednesday, with both LV and LKW having scheduled days off. The highlight of the day was Aaron Altherr going deep to help Reading hold off New Hampshire. Usually after a home run I look for a spike in the rate stats – Altherr’s OPS over his last ten games has skyrocketed to .432. He’s got four hits and three walks over that span, and his OBP is .206. He’s been slumping, is what I’m saying.

Andrew Knapp drew two walks and Ethan Stewart allowed seven in his four innings of work for CLR. And Jesus Alastre kept his pro-career-starting hitting streak alive at seven games.

Continue reading Box Score Recap – 5/21/2014 →

Hot or Not

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A look back at the time period of May 15-21…Looks like our #1 Not Hot Starter, David Buchanan, may be on his way to Philly to replace Cliff Lee in the rotation…I have to admit, Andrew Knapp is starting to worry me…With Willians Astudillo starting to catch more regularly, the fact that he continues to scald the ball becomes more intriguing…The transition to AAA for Kenny Giles seems to have been a smooth one from his early numbers…Just when some thought Justin DeFratus was fixed, he ends up taking a step backwards….The Reading bullpen was outstanding this week (Knigge, Murray, O’Sullivan, Ogando)

Hot Hitters: Min 12 AB’s: Willians Astudillo (.476, 8RBI); Albert Cartwright (.400, 9R, HR 2RBI, SB); Art Charles (.400, 5R); Anthony Phillips (.385); Samuel Hiciano (.375); Andrew Pullin (.364, 5R 1HR 5RBI); Wilmer Oberto (.350, 4R 3RBI); Ronny Cedeno (.333); Jiandido Tromp (.333, 4R 4RBI); Honorable Mention: Susdorf

Not Hot Hitters: Chris Serritella (.067);  Nick Ferdinand (.067); Andrew Knapp (.148); Gabrial Lino (.167); Aaron Altherr (.167); Carlos Alonso (.167); Tyler Henson (.174); Malquin Canelo (.188); Mitch Walding (.190) Continue reading Hot or Not →

Box Score Recap – 5/20/2014

Box Score Recap

Jim Murphy‘s three-run home run held up, as Ken Giles got the six out save for Lehigh Valley, including two Ks and two BBs. Barry Enright and Cesar Jimenez pitched well in that game as well, and Darin Ruf was 2-3 with two doubles and a walk. Wonder if he’ll get the call-up to replace Cliff Lee and then they’ll make a pitching move before Saturday’s game.

Jesse Biddle gave up 2R on 8H, 1HR, 2BB and 3K in six innings. He threw about 57% of his pitches for strikes. Feels like I say something similar fairly often after he starts. It’s a problem, to be sure. Cam Perkins was 2-5 with a double, and Brock Stassi 3-5 with a walk-off two-run homer and a walk.

Roman Quinn was 3-5 with a CS for Clearwater, while Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez was…well…bad. “Bad”‘s the word I’m looking for, right? 5R, 2ER on 4H, 5BB, 1K in 2.1IP. “Bad” pretty much sums that up, I think. Feel free to suggest other terms for that, but until then, I’ll go with “bad”. So, so bad.

J.P. Crawford, Willians Astudillo and Andrew Pullin were each on base three times, while Dylan Cozens hit a walk-off two-run bomb for Lakewood. Cody Forsythe did well to mop up Ulises Joaquin‘s mess in the eighth, stranding two, and then worked a scoreless ninth. The 23-year-old Forsythe has handled himself well this year – after being relegated to the GCL instead of sent to Williamsport last year with many other college draftees, I wasn’t expecting much from him, but he’s showing a good K rate and low walk rate thus far. If you missed it, Eric @Longenhagen wrote him up briefly at Crashburn Alley a few weeks ago.

Continue reading Box Score Recap – 5/20/2014 →

What Good Prospects Look Like

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I had a whole long post in my mind about what good prospects look like statistically in the minor leagues.  Unfortunately the day didn’t break right and that article will never be written.  Instead here is something quick to remember when you are looking at guys in the minor leagues and saying they are so much better than a random major leaguer.  Here is what the Phillies Starting Lineup looked like during their best minor league seasons.

Position Player Age Year PA 2B 3B HR SB BB K AVG OBP SLG
C Carlos Ruiz 27 2006 (AAA) 423 25 0 16 4 42 56 0.307 0.389 0.505
1B Ryan Howard 24 2004 (AA-AAA) 560 28 1 46 1 60 166 0.291 0.380 0.637
2B Chase Utley 24 2003 (AAA) 490 26 2 18 10 41 75 0.323 0.390 0.512
SS Jimmy Rollins 21 2000 (AAA) 533 28 11 12 24 49 55 0.274 0.341 0.457
3B Cody Asche 22 2012 (A+ – AA) 559 33 6 12 11 34 93 0.324 0.369 0.481
LF Domonic Brown 22 2010 (AA-AAA) 389 22 4 20 17 37 74 0.327 0.391 0.589
CF Ben Revere 20 2008(A-) 517 17 10 1 44 27 31 0.379 0.433 0.497
RF Marlon Byrd 23 2001 (AA) 582 22 8 28 32 52 93 0.316 0.386 0.555
Average 23 507 25 5 19 18 43 80 0.318 0.385 0.529

Continue reading What Good Prospects Look Like →