17 thoughts on “What Good Prospects Look Like”

1. Very good information.
   Ben Revere did hit a HR.
   Ruiz, Howard, Utley and Byrd, their best years, were all older for their respective levels.

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2. It’s funny because some of our best players have actually outperformed the expectations created by their minor league performances.

   Cliff Lee’s best year in the minors included a 4.3 BB/9? Wow. I guess that means there’s hope that Jesse Biddle becomes a control artist. Hadn’t heard about Cliff’s elbow though. That’s obviously terrible.

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   1. Who gets the starts for Lee?

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      1. Probably Buchanan.

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3. I thought he was hurt??

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4. He clearly seeems to be not 100%….I could see Enright getting the nod

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5. Honestly, if it is for one start and as they wait and see with Lee….I’d rather have Garner or Biddle going

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   1. I’d love to see Biddle or Garner, but they have some stuff to work on – I’m fine with Buchanan – if he’s right, you’re going to get a solid Kendrick start, which is pretty good for a fill-in. I was impressed with Buchanan in ST and they need to see him this year to make sure he can replace Kendrick in the rotation next year (if they sign Kendrick to a 3 year, $35 million contract, my head will explode).

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      1. catch…..'(if they sign Kendrick to a 3 year, $35 million contract, my head will explode)’………..will $33M keep your head from denotating?.

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         1. No, it will still explode. Really good teams find ways to replace their lesser players internally (or with short term free agent contracts – such as that given to Roberto Hernandez) without paying top dollar. Being in a position where you have to pay your 4 and 5 starters $10 million or more a year, in my view, represents a profound failure of the scouting and developmental abilities of the organization. And it deprives the team of money it could use to sign or retain more valuable talent. High functioning organizations (Cardinals being the best example), almost never, ever pay top dollar for their average talent except on a short term basis (which is why Kendrick’s contract this year is perfectly fine). That’s a stupid way to go about building a team and replenishing talent.

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            1. You are absolutely correct. The PHillies waste a lot of money, because they have been unable to grow enough even marginal replacements to fill the gaps. It shouldn’t be that hard for the farm to bring up a steady stream of adequate #5 starters, middle relievers, 4th OF and adequate if slightly below average starting OF. Since the present core graduated to the bigs years ago (Hamels was 2006 and drafted 2003, Kendrick was 2008 also drafted 2003). The productivity of the farm has been pretty abysmal — bad primo draft picks, way too few primo draft picks, way too many pitching injuries, way too many guys flaming out, an amazing number of junk picks in the middle of the top 10, not enough spending on draft and international bonuses). I have carped on the budget, but it is more than that. The scouting and player development performance has simply not been good enough. The Phillies really need to review their scouting/player development budgets/philosophy/staff from top to bottom. They are not a high performance organization.

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               1. So taking Harold Martinez in the 2nd round wasn’t a high value pick??

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            2. I disagree slightly in that they have drafted some replacement level talent but then used those player to try to keep the big club in contention.

               Players like Singleton, Cosart, D’arnaud, Drabek (although he’s been injured), Outman, Carrasco, Happ, Villar, Gose, Taylor, etc. are just the types of players who would currently be filling out the roster cheaply. If you go back a little further, that would also include Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd as well.

               I generally support the trade decisions even in hindsight because the team needed to maximize the opportunities they had while Howard, Utley, Rollins and Ruiz were in their prime but they are now paying the price for doing so. I also don’t think it’s a big an issue because the Phillies can afford to carry the payroll to overpay the lesser players a bit.

               The system is on the rebound in regards to position players (starting pitching still needs a lot of work) but they have a gap in talent in the upper levels of the system because of the trades that were made.

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6. So…Revere does (or did) know how to take a walk

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   1. Revere still knows how to walk, the problem is pitchers throw him nothing but strikes, he has incredibly high contact rate. The result is that most ABs end with the ball in play. Revere’s walk rate is a product of his profile, not his patience

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   2. Revere has not historically been an undisciplined hitter. His low BB rates have two causes – one, because of his lack of power pitchers have no reason to pitch him carefully – he doesn’t get as many pitches outside of the strike zone as most players. Two, he has good contact skills, so fewer long counts and thus fewer BB.

      This year’s unusually low BB rate is probably mainly just a relic of sample size, though his swing data does also suggest a slight decline in plate discipline. But he is still about average in that regard.

      His rates int he minors were better because minor league pitchers have worse control on average.

      Of course the bottom line is still a very low BB rate. Given that and his lack of power, he really needs to hit .300 to contribute as a hitter.

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      1. sigh, cross posted.

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