With the Phillies picking at #7 in the 2014 draft it doesn’t make much sense to put out a big board or first round mock draft as everyone will tune out by pick 15. Though Brad and I will be doing a mock draft all the way to #50 to include the Phillies second round pick, though that is a bit in the future. For now lets just focus on what is happening at #7 in the 2014 draft and who could be there and what kind of decisions can be made there.
Off the Board: There is no scenario I can see where either Brady Aiken or Carlos Rodon are on the board for the Phillies pick. They may not go 1-2 in the draft, but neither is making it past 4. The lefties could move quickly and be a the top of major league rotations soon.
If He is There You Take Him: We now move into the portion of the draft where you are almost 100% sure that these guys will be off the board, but weird things happen in the draft. The first is the guy who has been #3 on most boards for a while in Texas HS RHP Tyler Kolek. Baseball America’s most recent mock draft had Kolek falling all the way to the Phillies, and there are enough red flags that he could scare off the 3-4 teams in front of the Phillies, but it is extremely unlikely. If he does fall to 7, he is everything the Phillies covet in their HS pitchers. Next is catcher/outfielder Alex Jackson who has been near the top of boards for a while now. It sounds like more and more scouts don’t think he will be a catcher which hurts his stock, and third base could also be an option here. But he is still a guy with possible plus hit and plus power, and that is too much for most teams to pass up. Lastly has been consistent riser Nick Gordon, who continues to show solid defense at shortstop and some good offensive upside, including more power potential than some thought. I am sure the Phillies would have loved for Gordon to fall to 7, but he is almost assuredly not getting past the Twins at #5.
In theory those 5 guys go off the board leaving just one more of this next group to be plucked away by another team. However, as said above, all it takes is two teams reaching down and one of the top 5 could fall into their laps at 7.
College Pitchers: The big name here is Aaron Nola, the LSU ace, who lacks in raw stuff, but makes up for it with a plus plus command profile. I personally am not a big fan of his size or lack of big league swing and miss stuff, but a team that wants a #2/#3 starter who could be there quick is where Nola likely fits. I am not sure Nola gets to the Phillies at 7, but there has been a lot of rumors the Phillies take him there. Next you have 3 college LHPs in Kyle Freeland (Evansville), Sean Newcomb (Hartford), and Brandon Finnegan (TCU). Both Freeland and Finnegan come with size questions (Freeland is a twig and Finnegan is 5’11”), but offer more complete arsenals. Both Freeland and Newcomb come from small schools in non-traditional conferences, but were dominant in the Cape Cod League. The Phillies drafted Freeland in the 35th Round of the 2011 draft and offered him 9th round money when he was still a projectable arm in the mid to high 80s. The Phillies could go in many directions but I would rank this group; Nola, Newcomb, Freeland, Finnegan
High School Pitching: There are really only 2 HS pitchers in the discussion at #7. Grant Holmes has faded a bit since touching 100 and rocketing up draft boards. There is still the chance at 3 plus pitches, but a fastball that was more 92-94 and lack of future projection has caused him to lose some shine. Then there is Touki Toussaint who offers tremendous upside, with an explosive fastball/curveball combination. However, even with some improved command this year, there are still many questions about how much it could hold back the profile.
College Hitters: If the Phillies aren’t enamored with the pitching available they could look for a polished college bat. The best overall position player is Bradley Zimmer, a 5 tool centerfielder who has more remaining upside than most available college players. In terms of pure bats, Oregon State’s Michael Conforto combines hit and power in a package that could move quickly. Conforto offers no defensive value as a left fielder, and he is a tapped out on future upside. If the Phillies want pure tools they lean towards NC State SS Trea Turner. Turner is a pure 80 runner who should stick up the middle of the infield. There is some power there, but the hit tool is more average than special.
Wild cards: The biggest wildcard in the draft is RHP Jeff Hoffman. The Phillies don’t have the picks or creativity to easily pull off the Hoffman pick, but Hoffman could still go before the Phillies and push someone down to them. The other decisive college RHP is Tyler Beede. Beede has front line stuff and no consistency in using it and getting to all appear at once. If the picks don’t fall along the Phillies board, Beede could possibly go under slot at 7, but is likely a stay away. If the Phillies go dramatically off the board, the target is likely to be high school shortstop Jacob Gatewood. The Phillies have been linked to Gatewood at various points all spring. Gatewood is a classic Phillies pick, and if they were picking 16 he would be a real possibility. As much as the Phillies might want Gatewood there will likely be too much talent to take Gatewood at 7.
If the draft falls the way most experts are expecting the Phillies are likely looking at a couple of college pitchers at #7. The Phillies have favored LHPs in how they have build the organization overall which makes it seems that Newcomb or Freeland could be the pick. The hope is the Phillies take advantage of the cluster of talent to get an underslot deal at 7 that they can shift some money to 48, but recent events have produced some doubt on whether they have the leverage to make pre-draft deals. Overall the draft has lost some of the flash and sexiness, but there are plenty of interesting players available and a chance that a top talent still drops to them at 7.
Phuture Phillies 
At 7 the Phillies need to get a solid major league player. This is not a draft to indulge their frequent boom or bust proclivities. Another Crawford would be nice. No to Gatewood and Beede. Of the guys who might be there for them, I like them in the order Gordon, Nola, Holmes, Freeland, Newcomb, Zimmer, Toussaint. Hoffman is an interesting case, but we can’t afford a whiff if his arm doesn’t recover. If he’s willing to share the risk with us and sign for below slot, I’m onboard with that and spend the money saved at 48. We won that bet with Hamels, lost it with Savery.
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At #7 they should be looking to add an all-star talent player, even it he comes with greater risk. Teams win with great players and it’s harder and harder to buy one on the FA market as teams continue to lock up their players earlier and earlier.
What you can get on the FA market are solid major league players. They are expensive but they are available and teams with the Phillies resources can afford to pay the cost.
What they can’t buy is all-star talent because it’s not available.
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So who is this great talent who is worth the risk? Crawford could well be a future All Star, so could Gordon. A solid #2/3 starter like Nola is not to be sneezed at.
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Yeah, I think that’s what people are missing. There will be multiple players available at 7 who could be all stars. As usual, even the safer picks are far from guaranteed to be all stars, but given that any of the reasonable picks there are potentially that good, it doesn’t make sense to pick s high risk player. That’s a late first round strategy (and even there, the Phillies’ success rate wasn’t what you would call good for those types of picks.
Now, obviously you don’t pick (say) a “safe” college pitcher whose ceiling is a 4, but that isn’t what you were advocating.
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Since Aiken, Kolek and Rodon are likely off the board, I would take Jackson, Gordon or Zimmer, in that order, if any of them is still there. All six of these players look like stars. If they are all gone when the Phillies pick, I’d pick Hoffman, who has little leverage and probably will sign under slot.
Klaw has raised the possibility that Nola may not even remain a starter because of his very low slot. Freeland and Toussaint also raise big questions.
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Take the best player and if it is a position players then proceed.
They could be stars at some point.
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Taking someone you project to be a solid #3 starter at #7 is a terrible waste of the pick. Don’t know that there is necessarily a high rist/reward type of player at the top of this draft so it may be academic but shooting for an average regular makes no sense.
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You’re not shooting for an average regular, but you have to come out of this with at least that. You can’t go bust on the sort of high ceiling/high risk guy we’ve so often picked in round one. Seriously, there is a better chance to hit the jackpot with a guy having a good floor and some upside than with these boom/bust picks.
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Lidge, Halladay, Lee, Papelbon. If your argument is that they can’t buy top-flight pitching, you’re wrong. Top flight hitting is another matter. That’s why I’d grab Gordon, if he’s there. He looks better on paper and film than Crawford did when we grabbed Crawford.
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Crawford two for two after missing some games, move him to Clearwater, they need help,
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They didn’t buy Halladay, they traded for him. Same with Lidge. Papelbon is hardly top-flight pitching so of the players identified, only Lee fits the definition.
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Very good article Matt.
Sure wish MLB would allow the trading of draft choices like the other pro sports. Would make things more interesting and dramatic.
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They do in a limited way. There are competitive balance picks prior to the second round, which can be traded. That would have been a good use of Phillies $.
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Pitching, pitching, pitching. And, then, pitching.
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Sounds like you would go for the Jays 2013 strategy. Their first 9 picks were pitchers, and 12 of first 13! Now, did not help that they did not sign their first rounder.
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No “whiffs” are allowed! We must get someone who will help sooner rather than later. As a New Orleanian, I tend to favor Nola (as in N.O.LA.). But I might settle for Gordon.
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Pitching all the way for me. I’d love to nab Freeland or Holmes. Nola wouldn’t be so bad either I guess, I just feel we should be looking for a #2 guy with this pick. Beede would be a risk, we don’t exactly have a great track record of teaching guys to improve their command. He falls to the Giants though and I wouldn’t be shock to see him win a Cy Young in a few years.
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I really hope Kolek or Jackson get to Phils. Otherwise, it almost seems like we’re settling on someone at 7. Of that group I’m sure some will develop into good players but nothing has me overly excited.
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Zimmer is my guy unless Rodon, Aiken or Kolek fall. None of the pitchers after those 3 are worthy of the 7th pick. Gordon then Jackson if I don’t get Zimmer.
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I’m with you. Would love an all around bat like Zimmer in the first and then best available arm in the 2nd.
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Good article. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem that as much talent is falling to #7 as I had hoped. I think you need to be bold and take the guy that at least has a chance to be a star with the 7th pick over the guy that can safely be a #2 or 3 starter. I’m not too fond of the college pitchers that will be there for us. I’d rather go after a high school pitcher with a huge upside, although with risk, or a guy that could possibly become a #3 hitting position player. Is either guy there?
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What I think will happen: Phillies will take Nola after watching their farm pitchers lack control across the board. What should happen: Phillies need to take on additional risk and go for P with #1 upside.
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Right now at #7 there are no pitchers with true #1 upside (except Hoffman but that has other questions). Someone may gain the arm strength or feel for a secondary but that is a crap shoot. Right now the #1 pitchers are Aiken, Rodon, and Kolek
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There are probably a dozen guys in this draft with the potential to be a #1 starter- some one (or two) will be- even after the 7th pick. Seems a gamble to turn up their nose at a pitching prospect for a lesser hitting prospect (aside from Jackson or Gordon)
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i think if the top 3 pitchers and top 2 position guys are gone, i want them to go after Holmes. Kid doesnt have much projection on his body according to most, but u never know with a HS kid, hes already mid 90’s and they project 3 plus pitches.. that says number 1 potential to me.
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I personally would take Newcomb if anyone didn’t fall because he could be a ace and a workhorse with his size. Sign him for under slot and if Luis Ortiz is left for a second round pick, then take him, but if not I like Michael Kopech.
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I was reading an interview and they said in a few years Newcomb might be a guy everyone wonders how he fell so far in the draft. I’d look into him.
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I am on-board with that player. 6’5″ 240 pounds with fastball touching 97. His video:
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Newcomb is Jessie Biddle.
I’d love Holmes here, but prefer Freeland of the college arms. Freeland could still be underrated as a top 10 pick, with plus stuff, underrated athleticism, video game numbers and plus plus command from the left side. The thin 6’4″ frame shouldn’t even be a knock on him, as it means he could still add velocity. If gaining 20 pounds means an extra 2-3 mph on his fastball, it would just be unfair.
Touki’s stuff and upside is worth the #7 pick; his “pitchability” is underrated. His inconsistency is more due to wild experimentation than inability to throw strikes. His fastball moves so much he doesn’t need pinpoint control, so long as he limits walks. He can also throw his unhittable hook consistently for strikes, and it’s not like hitters can wait on that pitch. I might even take Medeiros if he’d sign for cheap, because with the depth of prep talent in this draft, it would be nice to have enough money to be aggressive with the next few picks.
Beede scares me with how hittable he can look at times. Nola gets enough movement that I’m okay with his lack of velocity. I struggle to see why they’d prefer Nola to Freeland, but I don’t share the disdain for Nola’s possibly limited upside.
Any of Nola, Freeland or Holmes would be ready soon.
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I like the Freeland pick. Plus we’ve drafted him before so maybe we’ll try our luck again this time. Holmes is nice too. He would be a good #2 for us hopefully.
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I am a little confused, you say sign Medeiros cheap, and then be aggressive in prep talent? I am just curious is there a cap on spending in the draft?? why not with this bad farm system sign a top guy in first round , and be aggressive with the prep kids to restock the system.
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There is a cap in that if you go over by 5% you forfeit next year’s first round pick, if you go over by 10% you forfeit the next two years. Which for the Phillies who will likely be in the Top 15 picks again next year, is a huge penalty.
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ty matt
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Poster above raises a good point about Touki his stuff is nasty. Plus FB Plus CB if you reign him in some and convince him not to over throw the heater it is a pitch with enough life to get the job done.
How much of a risk is he at 7 I guess depends on what kind of a kid he is. If he is good kid, coachable kid then he is not a reach at 7 on stuff alone.
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Having said all of that it looks to me like there will be more depth at pitcher than position players so you’re likely to have some decent arms to chose from at 48.
If you walk away with a middle of the order type bat at 7 and a #2/#3 type starter at 48 that is a pretty good draft.
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That would be an excellent first two rounds, but likely too much to hope for. I think Gordon could be a very good player for us, but is he a middle of the order type back. It is really hard — takes a lot of luck in addition to good scouting to get a #2/3 starter at position 48 in the draft. Our recent high draft position pitchers:
Savery (#19)
Biddle (#27)
Watson (#40)
Gueller (#54)
Garner (#77)
Biddle still needs development, but realistically can be a #2/3 starter. Watson may get healthy and develop to that level, but not holding my breath. The others — I don’t think so This is a very good draft for pitching, as you say, and the quality at 48 may get you a Biddle-type talent, but that would be doing really well.
I’m sure we could get Conforto at #7 and he could become a middle of the order bat, but he’s a poor-fielding LF and we’ve got a lot of those. Jackson certainly could be a middle order bat, but it is really doubtful he drops to 7. I’d jump on him if he does.
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Why doesn’t Conforto get more love? Sounds like he’s the best pure hitter in the draft, and he’s got power too. As good hitting is becoming harder and harder to find, why isn’t he rated higher? Just curious.
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Defense. He is a 25 HR a year LFer and not a particulary good one either. It is a really safe profile, but it lacks big time impact and upside.
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go under slot on Hoffman? Id rather do that that then go for a 2nd tier college arm. Then stack over priced high priced players in round 2 on. Hoffman has little to no leverage.
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lets put it this way… if you could. The Phillies would be desperately trying to trade back… we had to win those games at the end of the year.
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The M’s lost their second-round pick with the Cano signing. The Phils’ second rounder is No. 47.
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