General Discussion – Week of 4-28-2014 – Mets Stink Edition

Weekly Discussion

The Mets are bad and some of them probably have bad body odor and stuff.

Discuss.

68 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 4-28-2014 – Mets Stink Edition”

  1. Hard to believe….but to date, Ben Rever has a higher slugging % then Dom Brown…..though only by ..003

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  5. how aggressive should the team be with MARK LEITER JR. New Tyson Gillies movie
    “The money and time pit”

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  6. 1 of 2 comments:

    Phils pitchers have the worst babip in NL and 4th best gb%. Braves pitchers have best babip in NL and 4th lowest gb%

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  7. 2 of 2.

    RAJ has done a very good job putting together a contender. Here is a good overview, which doesn’t include re-signing Utley or the Revere theft. http://www.thegoodphight.com/2014/4/28/5660562/amaros-off-season-acquisitions-doing-well-so-far

    Contrary to the armchair GM’s desire, he doesn’t have the luxury of just “blowing up” the roster. He has to stay competitive while rebuilding the farm. And it looks to me that he is doing a great job. Barring any major injuries, this is a playoff competitive team. Worst you can say is weak 7th/8th inning relief. Also need another bench bat. And hope that Asche hits something respectable. But lineup is good. Defense is good. Starting pitching is great. And closer role looks very good too.

    Tip of the cap to RAJ.

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    1. I’m not sure I’d agree with you on all the specific strengths and weaknesses or giving general applause to Amaro (he’s partially created a crisis here), but, given where he was after last season, it was a good offseason. A lot of things have to go right for the team to remain in the wild card hunt through the end of the year, but it could easily happen, which is a good thing. I’m less concerned about what he’s done this year than I am about the farm and younger players slowly replacing older players and performing at a high level – I’m concerned because these younger players are the future of the team and right now, things are a bit dicey.

      We will know a lot more about these players by the time we get to August, But make no mistake about it, the performance of those young players will be the difference here – we need a few of them to step up and show what they can do. It still astonishes me that, after 4 years, I still have no idea what to make of Dom Brown except he does seem to be a hard worker and the things that one can objectively improve with practice (fielding, base running, plate approach), he seems to be working on and developing. As for his hitting, I’m no “hit doctor” but I think Brown needs a small trigger in his swing – something that allows him to load up and release properly into the ball; right now, he’s just making contact, which is fine in a given situation, but when the count is in his favor, he should be jumping on mistakes and hitting them out of the park and that’s not happening. I think Brown will be one of these guys who has his best seasons between ages 29 and 35, but for now, we wait.

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      1. Your point about the younger players is a very good one. Really you can make a case that, from a long term perspective, the first month of the season has been an almost unmitigated disaster. Not specifically Amaro’s fault, of course, but I’d say that the medium to long term outlook is worse than ever.

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        1. Just to update a post from about a week ago:

          5 older “core” players: 4.7 WAR
          Other over 30: 0.4 WAR
          Under 30: -2.1 WAR

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        2. It’s always interesting to see which posts get a down vote. Sometimes what I assume are going to be my most controversial posts get up votes only, and something like this, just a statement of fact, get down voted.

          Yes, it’s just a month. And I’m not even talking about mixed results from healthy minor league prospects. But, objectively:

          (1) Performance by major league young players has been pretty much universally abysmal. The only redeeming note has been Revere’s recent play.

          (2) The injury bug has bitten again at the minor league level.

          (3) Positive results at the major league level are 95% the result of players over the age of 34. And most of the exceptions are over 30. The only player under the age of contributing at all is Revere.

          Okay, 1 and 3 may be different ways of stating the same thing, and, yes, it’s still April. It’s still striking.

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    2. This got super long and rambling. Please don’t report me to @BadMLB…

      It’s April 29, so…I’ll plan to revisit RAJ’s off-season after they’ve played more of this season. I look at the older guys and assume injuries, but can they be mitigated? 2-3 weeks one time for each for, say, three of the five older starters (Howard, Utley, Rollins, Byrd and Ruiz), isn’t going to totally bust the team, and may help those guys rest a bit more than they would have for a stretch run. So could the lineup hold up and be together for most of the year? Sure. I wouldn’t put money on it. Of course young guys can break also, but that’s just the way it is. Sometimes you get lucky or not with injuries. Hopefully

      The bench is not great but Ruf will help. A LHB with any kind of power potential would be nice, but good luck finding that guy. I thought Dugan might push for that spot towards the middle of the year, but now he’s off track with a DL stint, so who knows? If they’re close at the deadline and standing pat, and Asche looks ok and Franco looks good enough in AAA, I could see them platooning the two at third. That would sometimes give you a LHB with some pop from the bench. That decision’s pretty far off, though, and from a roster construction perspective, it means likely Freddy Galvis is your backup CF, or Ruf is in AAA and Mayberry is your backup CF. Not ideal.

      Would you roll with a bench of Nieves, Franco/Asche, Galvis, Gwynn and Ruf? I think that’s potentially a good improvement over what they have now. Am I forgetting someone? Hernandez instead of Gwynn is unlikely, since they seem to have given up on Cesar in CF, so Cesar’s stuck waiting on an injury.

      Starting pitching is a strength, especially if KK can put together a couple good months and a couple mediocre months and not blow up the rest, and Hernandez keep them in half his starts. Burnett seems to be thriving with his hernia. Still gross to think about it, though.

      Closer is a big question for me, as Paps is living on the edge of acceptable velocity. He’s still got good movement on his pitches, (from this untrained eye), so 92-93 FB might get it done if he keeps it down. He can’t live up in the zone like before, and I think he’s realized that.

      The rest of the bullpen is a mess. I’m not confident in Bastardo at all, but he’ll have a very long leash. Diekman is misused, IMO, and I don’t see that slowing down. I don’t have a problem with using bullpen guys out of their prescribed innings, so using Diekman in the fifth or sixth inning, when warranted, is fine with me, but it seems like Sandberg is just using Diekman whenever he feels there’s a touch of urgency, even if that means burning him against a bunch of RHBs. I know the RHP situation is not good, though I think the leash he put on DeFratus was way too short, but perhaps Sandberg’s tactics will change if Adams is serviceable, Martin comes back throwing well, Giles comes up in mid-late June, MAG is something eventually, Garcia keeps holding it down in AAA and it translates to MLB, etc.

      Ok, I’m done.

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    4. It’s quite possible to agree with the off season moves (which I mostly do) and agree that a fire sale would be a mistake (which I definitely do), while still being negative about Amaro.

      The only way to defend Amaro is to blame the many negatives – poor talent evaluation, questionable draft choices, poor development, bad contracts, the Pence trade – on other actors or bad luck. The latter goes only so far, and former is not only speculative, but damning with faint praise. Saying that Amaro is not the person in the organization who makes important decisions isn’t much of a defense.

      That’s even accepting your rosy view of the off season trades, which as I said I mostly do, but not entirely (Byrd, e.g.), and your assessment of the team’s chances this season (I’m a little more negative than you are on that point)., And also ignore his many questionable public comments over the years.

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    5. I don’t think most of the regulars on here advocated a blowing it up strategy. In fact many articulately argued to the reasons against doing so.

      But I see no need to tip the cap to Amaro in April for doing a decent job this offseason within the confines of a mess that he largely created. With the exception of Burnett I don’t think any offseason acquisition has performed as well as expected. In fact, if his intention was truly to contend he should have addressed 3B this offseason even with a stop gap until Franco is ready. As others have pointed out the “success” so far this season is largely tied to the existing vets on the roster. Does he deserve credit for re -signing Utley and Ruiz? Sure. But although we can dispute years and dollars both decisions were no baronets for anyone who understands baseball.

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  8. Is that RAJ’s best friend or something? Lol. While I agree the team has been better than expected to start the year, if anything this is worse than if they were terrible. They are not a contender, but they are just good enough that Amaro will swear they have a chance at a miracle run and not trade any assets for a prospect package at the deadline. That is about as bad of a scenario as we could have asked for, and it’s pretty much the baseball version of what happened to the Sixers for so many years before they finally decided to blow it up. I understand the sports and the dynamics are so so different, but being a middling team that wins enough games to prevent a fire sale, but not enough to be real contenders is not a good spot to be in in any sport.

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    1. The only reason I have any hope is Lee/Hamels/Burnett. That could be formidable if you can make the playoffs. I just don’t know that they can, and if they do, I don’t trust that their current bullpen wouldn’t give away the wild-card game. But get through that pesky wild card game and I’ll take my chances with that trio at the top of the rotation.

      I don’t look at odds making sites, but I would imagine the Phils’ chances of making the postseason are in the very low single digits, maybe no better than 1%. I think that’s fair. I don’t see much helping those chances aside from luck or three Cy-Young-candidate level performances from your big three starters, which in itself would be pretty lucky, but more likely than all of your position players staying healthy or this bullpen holding water for any length of time.

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      1. I don’t look at the odds makers sites either, but the odds of the Phillies making the playoffs are probably at least 15-25%, perhaps higher. By “making the playoffs” I mean the second wild card. There’s no way the odds should be as low as 1%, but if you find out that they are, let me know and I’ll lay some serious money on the Phils (I’m not kidding).

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      2. Odds from Vegas for WS Winners: Phillies tied for 22nd with San Diego..

        Los Angeles Dodgers 5/1
        St Louis Cardinals 6/1
        Detroit Tigers 7/1
        Washington Nationals 8/1
        Oakland Athletics 12/1
        New York Yankees 12/1
        San Francisco Giants 14/1
        Boston Red Sox 14/1
        Texas Rangers 16/1
        Atlanta Braves 16/1
        Milwaukee Brewers 18/1
        Tampa Bay Rays 18/1
        Los Angeles Angels 20/1
        Baltimore Orioles 25/1
        Kansas City Royals 30/1
        Pittsburgh Pirates 35/1
        Toronto Blue Jays 35/1
        Cleveland Indians 35/1
        Cincinnati Reds 35/1
        Colorado Rockies 50/1
        Seattle Mariners 50/1
        San Diego Padres 75/1
        Philadelphia Phillies 75/1

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        1. Okay, those are odds to win the World Series and are probably lower than they should be for the Phils, but not by much. I was talking about the odds to make the playoffs, a very different bet.

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  9. Why do I get the impression that every time I tout a prospect or young player in the organization, he goes into an immediate tailspin? It happened several times last season, and now Biddle goes and has his worst start of the season after my praise.

    Yes, it’s a combination of coincidence and selection bias (I tend not to remember the occasions when players I praise keep playing well). But let me try a “reverse jinx” here. Man, Ashe has been horrible.,

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  10. Name one prospect traded in any of RAJ’s trade that would have had an impact in the past 3 or 4 seasons? Or the next 2 seasons. The answer is none. Zero. We have lost zero ML value from our farm over a 5 year stretch from buying 5 NL Easts, 2 Pennants and 1 WS.

    Meanwhile, we have a middle of the road farm and the #7 pick this year. We had a great draft last year by most accounts. And even better picks this year. If we do well, our system will be restocked and just need 2-3 years to mature.

    Sometimes I think you lose perspective. The only point of a farm system is to help the big club.

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    1. Not sure who this is in response to. If it’s to me, then you’re not understanding my point. The trading away of minor league players, on the whole, is not the problem. Pence trade excepted, and that’s a very big exception. And, if you recall my vigorous objection to the deal at the time, certainly not hindsight on my part.

      That said, you exaggerate. There are several players traded who could have helped this year and over the next couple of years. Some of that is water under the bridge; I have no problem with most of the deals. But the prospects for the team over the next few years would be much better without the Pence deal. That said, it’s far from the biggest cause to the current disastrous state of the system.

      Stting aside the wisdom of those trades, your second paragraph is absurd. We don’t have a middle of the road minor league system, we have a bottom 10 system. AND we have virtually no young talent at the major league level. With that as our starting point, even good drafting and development would mean at least 5 years to restock the system to the point where the major league team can compete for a playoff berth.

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    2. I’m not sure middle of the road is accurate. Other than possibly Franco and Biddle (and there are questions about both). There is really no one above LWD that’s likely to have a major impact in Philly, and the LWD guys are 4 years away if they even develop (Crawford is looking more and more like as sure a thing as you’re going get in A-)

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    3. I must be nuts, Cozart wouldn’t be as good or better than our 4 or fifth starter? Singleton would be our first basemen this year .Workman is now going to be a starter for Boston, the kid has a knee bucking curve and 92-94 fastball. I must have misunderstood the question, by the way singleton is the best first base prospect in baseball according to Houston page,

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      1. i’m hardly a defender of amaro, but cosart’s ERA this season is 6.12, with 13 BBs in 25 innings. and with howard’s contract, singleton was never going to play first base in philly. he may eventually be an all-star, but right now he’s still just a minor leaguer.

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        1. The fact that one mistake (the Howard contract) arguably “”cancels out” a portion of a second mistake (the Pence trade) is hardly a defense of Amaro.

          Not to mention the fact that, worst case, Singleton could have then, and even more so now, been used a piece in a deal for a player who could have actually contributed to the team going forward, instead of an over rated, long gone player who didn’t meaningfully help the team (they would have made the playoffs without him and lost in the first round of the playoffs).

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      2. Workman was not traded; he was not signed. This is a whole different argument. The team’s failure to spend over slot when they had the money. No longer an advantage, they blew it when they had it. And, you like Singleton, I know, but he would not start. Howard is just not going anywhere.

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  11. So, early in the season still (i.e. SSS), but I thought I would provide my very unscientific report card for the Phillies players. My grades are based on 2 factors – overall performance, and actual performance versus what I would have realistically anticipated from the player at the beginning of the season.

    Howard – I will give him a B (my expectations for him were low). In 32 PA (SSS), he has handled lefties reasonably well – OPS of 813. His glove has been terrible, but that aligns with what I would have expected.

    Utley – A. I suspected a regression from last year, but so far, so good. His spring numbers had me a bit concerned. Guess that shows what spring numbers often mean

    Rollins – B-. Stories report he has been good in the clubhouse. Number are eh – which is about what I would have expected.

    Asche – D-, and I am likely being generous on this one. Has a history of slow starts, so this is all that saves him from an F

    Dom Brown – C- – Where has the power gone? Will he adjust to the pitchers adjustments to him?

    Revere – B- / C+. He is what he is – my opinion of him is that he can be a supporting character on a good team, but not an impact player on a mediocre team

    Byrd – B- – much better than what we had last year, but has yet to show the pop of last year.

    Ruiz – One great week takes him from a C to an A.

    Lee – B-. A few clunkers mixed in with several gems

    Hamels – too early for a real grade. But, given the concern about his arm from a month ago, I will give him an A (I had concern as to if he would be pitching at all yet)

    Burnett – B- – similar to Lee – a few clunkers mixed in with some gems.

    Kendrick – C

    Bullpen – F. will SOMEONE step it up. Papelbon’s numbers (minus the one appearance) have been good. Fastball velocity continues to dip a bit.

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    1. Most of this I agree with. But Rollins? Has to be an “A,” A- at worst. Numbers aren’t meh in context (as offense league wide continues its downward trend). Per wRC+, he’s 10% better than an average major league hitter. And his defense, if you buy the metrics, has been quite good. All the usual caveats about WAR apply, but, per WAR, he is tied for the second best shortstop in the NL so far (and third best in the major leagues).

      I think he’ll regress some, but this is looking like quite a rebound year. I still have very mixed feelings about next year vesting – though even there, with Galvis off to a disastrous start (yes, I know, SSS), who else is going to play SS next year?

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      1. To clarify my thinking on Galvis (this same reasoning applies to some extent to Brown (albeit at a higher level) and Asche).

        It’s not primarily about 33 plate appearances. But looking at career data, we now have 455 PA. And as a hitter he has been .. not good. .216/.256/.351. Moreover, unlike, for example, Asche and Brown, his minor league data isn’t really a bright spot.

        STEAMER actually projects him to be a little (but not much) better – .229/.270/.338. Even if he was provided GG caliber defense, that’s pretty marginal. But, while his defense is quite good, it isn’t GG caliber. Nor does he run the bases particularly well.

        Obviously he could turn it around. But, based on the whole picture, not just a poor start this season, I am increasingly skeptical that he can ever be more than a bench piece. Should he be given enough playing time this season to prove me wrong? Yes. But counting on him as the regular shortstop next season, at this point, seems to me to be … optimistic.

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        1. It seems like we’re headed for a scenario where Rollins plays out his option year and Crawford takes over in 2016. Galvis might get a chance to start in 2016 if Crawford isn’t quite ready, but even that’s doubtful.

          He’s a perfectly fine bench piece. He’s slightly cheaper and has a little more upside than the Valdez/Bruntlett/Mini-Mart triumvirate that we were using before he arrived.

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  12. LOL I am usually pretty supportive of RAJ but Vagain takes it to another level. The coup de gras to his legacy if there is one will ultimately be the Halladay injury followed by none of the players in the Lee to Seattle trade materialized.

    I think it was the right move to acquire Pence when he did but over zealous to include a 4th guy. Who knows if Santana will ever be anything that is not the point. In the MiLB these guys look good and are assets to acquire other pieces if needed.

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      1. Sure Joe and this is just my opinion but had Halladay maintained his form through his contract extension there is a good chance their heads stay above water for two more seasons.

        The subsequent tail spin that was caused from his injury put them in a bind no? Isn’t it possible if he is still the pitcher he was or close to it they don’t feel the need to move Victorino and Pence and thus possibly make another few playoff appearances.

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      2. Sure Joe and this is just my opinion but had Roy aged gradually and maintained his stuff through or close to it the extension its possible they don’t trade Victorino and Pence. it’s possible they make a few more playoff appearances.

        His injury caused a tail spin that again IMO destabilized the franchise and thus here we are.

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  13. Typical Philly fans. It’s like you try to find a reason to be negative.

    Keith (Philly hater) Law rated our system 14 in baseball. http://m.espn.go.com/mlb/story?storyId=10354393&src=desktop&rand=ref~%7B%22ref%22%3A%22http%3A%2F%2Fsearch.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%3Fp%3Dminor%2Bleague%2Bsystem%2Brankings%26fr%3Diphone%26.tsrc%3Dapple%26pcarrier%3DVerizon%26pmcc%3D311%26pmnc%3D480%22%7D. That is middle of the road to me. He called our 2013 draft one of the best in baseball. One more good draft and we are re-stocked.

    Workman was a non-signing. And not by Amaro. And he is almost 26, in AAA and has a 6.3 ERA. He is a relief pitcher. Time to let it go brother.

    Singleton is a druggie with a poor work ethic. Ie bad makeup. He wouldn’t play for the Phillies and let’s see what type of career he has before anointing.

    Cosart? You must not be paying attention. He has the same control issues in majors than he had in the minors. Actually worse stats in majors. He is pitching worse than Hernandez and that is hard. Not losing sleep about him.

    I can go on, but again, bashing prospects is not my point. My point is we got something in return…a lot of winning. And contrary to the elite scouts we have on this board, many people believe a decent farm system that is about to get much better.

    Are you not entertained?

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    1. I’m starting to wonder if you’re serious. What you’re arguing is absurd. Not just wrong, but not even a reasonable argument.

      You can’t restock a system with two drafts. Not even close. Not if they were the two best drafts in major league history. Five drafts of the caliber of last season’s draft, assuming good development, would be a start. But just a start.

      Law’s ranking is just one of many. Every other one put us in the bottom ten. I’m not a Law basher, but there’s no reason in the world to take his opinion over the opinions of dozens of other experts.

      And if you combine minor league system with controlled under age 30 talent,* the Phillies are in the bottom 5 in major league baseball. And that’s being a little generous.

      *Yes, it’s early, but the Phillies ranking (2014 performance) in under 30 major league talent is not only 30th, but 30th by a wide margin. The Astros are (somewhat oddly, given their age profile) 29th, almost 2 WAR ahead of the Phillies.

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      1. I’m a bit more optimistic than you, but I agree that there are serious, serious reasons to be concerned. The most recent generation of draftee/signees HAS to hit because the team essentially stopped drafting pitchers the last few years. If these guys don’t come through to a certain degree it’s going to be a long stroll through the wilderness.

        And, damn, this is so unnecessary as the TV contract is in place (it’s not perfect but it’s a ton of money) and the fans are dying for a reason to come to the park in record numbers every year. I think of the four major sports the Phillies now have the worst management, edging out the Flyers. The Sixers stink now, but they are going in the right direction and, essentially, the DeSean Jackson circus aside, the Eagles appear to be running circles around the other teams.

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        1. Yes.

          Let’s look at the position talent. You have a couple (2) potential stars, a few potential decent regulars (most of whom won’t be), a few potential bench guys, and a bunch of lottery tickets. Basically, if almost everything breaks right, you could have a decent lineup 5 years down the road. But that’s if everything breaks right, and it ignores the pitching

          Now, to be clear, that’s not bad – if you ignore pitching, yes we are a top 15, maybe top 10 system. But combine the lack of pitching with the lack of young major league talent, and that’s not good.

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      2. I mean, you’re not wrong about the trades, aside from the disastrous Pence mistake. And you’re not (far) wrong about the past off season.

        But how anyone can argue with a straight face that the system, taken as a whole (major league included) isn’t in horrible shape going forward is beyond me. They have less under 30 talent than any other major league franchise – yes, it’s not as bad as the April performances indicate, but if you can find a team with less under 30 talent, I’d love to see it.

        It’s one thing to argue that this fact isn’t Amaro’s fault – a dubious position IMO, but at least a reasonable argument can be made – it’s another thing to deny the fact entirely.

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  14. Anyone know the story on Kyle Freeland? He is currently a possible top 10 pick in the upcoming draft. The Phillies took him in 2011 in the 35th round. He went to Evansville, which leads me to think he was not a super-touted prospect, and has gotten much better over the last 3 years. But, anyone know/recall if the Phillies made a real run to sign him?

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    1. He is a guy who coming into last summer was barely a Top 10 round pick (BA didn’t rank him out of HS). On the cape he showed 90-92 touching 94, a cutter with plus potential, and a changeup with good potential. This year he has continued to fill out and the fastball is up to 95-96. Scouts worry that his arm slot is too low to work as a starter long term. I don’t think he is a top 10 pick, but middle of the first round is very likely.

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  15. To V1again, you have got to be kidding me!!! Name ONE move since signing Lee that has been positive. You can’t do it! He’s failed to ever put together a solid bench. He’s failed with the bullpen. Unnecessarily threw $50 mil at a closer, which is laughable.

    His two great moves were the first Lee trade and the Halladay trade. Other than that, TERRIBLE GM.

    Instead of discussing the prospects we gave up for Pence (which was awful by the way. Say what you want about Cosart, but he’s still, what, 23? 24?), maybe you should look at the reason why we needed to make that trade!!!! Not only did he let Werth walk the offseason prior(a move I don’t disagree with), he did NOTHING to replace him. JMJ? HAHAHA. That was the same offseason in which guys like Beltran and Cuddyer signed and were PRODUCTIVE. Additionally, we then traded Pence a year later for a questionable prospect at best (can’t blam RAJ for the concussions), and another OF that he let walk who ended up having a good year elsewhere. The fact is, he hasn’t made a move that has worked out since Lee in 2011, and that is a FACT. I can go on and on with the bad moves, but in closing, i’ll wait for you to list the good moves made over the last couple years.

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    1. He didn’t sign BJ Upton as so many here wanted. That was a very good move.
      Name me 1(one) just 1 GM that hasn’t made mistakes.

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      1. Are you presenting a defense for Amaro as a GM by listing a move that he didn’t make? Did not signing Upton improve the team? Come on man, you’re making my point stronger.

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        1. Actually not signing Upton did make the team better, imagine having to play him now because of the contract and guys like you would tear him in pieces over it.

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  16. Some of the Amaro defenses are ok, others make no sense. I will say a few things i his defense: first; looks like byrd and burnett, while old, were not bad signings, and have made the team better.

    I do think he blew the Pence trade big time, and I also think that for the most part he has not overseen a system that develops much talent. Even in terms of hiring progressive thinkers and gurus would have helped. I have voiced this opinion before, but I feel like the talent the team drafts is not terrible at all, relatively good actually, but then the minor league system does not mold that into a good player more often than not.

    But for Amaro, the biggest knock will always be his refusal to move on from the 2008 team, and his refusal to understand that in sports, there has to be a revolving door. Winning a ship should not guarantee employment for all involved for the rest of their careers. You have to use judgement to determine which veterans you want to keep, while filling the rest of the team with free agents and guys frmo the minor league system.

    The second biggest knock will always be his unawareness of the market. You don’t sign closers to 3 years $50 million deals. You don’t give lumbering power hitting first basement, who are already showing signs of decline and still have two years left on their contract ridiculous extensions. As much as I like Chooch, that deal for a catcher at this stage of his career was insane too.

    He just has no concept of value, and no concept of how to build an entire team. All he does is sign veterans to ridiculous contracts.

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    1. I’m on board with a lot of this – though in retrospect, I’m not sure I’d say that the failure to move on from the 2008 team was a key failure. Obviously I think they should have moved on from Howard (and kept Werth instead, though I realize that, because of a one year overlap in contracts, it wasn’t quite that simple), but otherwise the holdovers from that team aren’t the problem. And the Ruiz deal is actually looking quite good at this point. Also obviously, looking forward from today it would be nice if there was some under 30 talent on the team (understatement), but that’s not because he held on to the 2008 stars too long – to some extent the causality goes the other way, part of the reason he has held on to the 2008 stars is lack of quality replacements coming through the system.

      Setting aside a number of specific bad moves, the deeper failure is the inability to replace pieces lost via age, free agency, or injury. And that contains the germ of what I believe may be the strongest defense of Amaro – how much is he to blame for the failure of the minor league system to produce decent major league players? We’ve debated to death the causes of that failure – but whichever narrative one ascribes to – development woes, cheap ownership, drafting woes, drafting position, trades, luck – there’s a decent argument that Amaro isn’t to blame. Even drafting and development are problems that predated his time as GM. Obviosuly he was responsible for the trades, but most of them were good deals or at least defensible, with one obvious exception.

      But it seems to me that even the strongest defense of him is that he is mediocre as opposed to bad – and that’s not good enough

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  17. (3) 2B Mookie Betts Portland .430 .481 .688 1.169 93 4 10
    (4) C Blake Swihart Portland .320 .338 .520 .858 75 2 2
    (5) 3B Garin Cecchini Pawtucket .312 .400 .390 .790 77 1 2
    (12) SS Deven Marrero Portland .303 .378 .409 .787 66 0 5
    (12) C Christian Vazquez Pawtucket .292 .342 .417 .758 72 0 0
    (14) 2B Wendell Rijo Greenville .297 .438 .453 .891 64 2 0
    (15) CF Manuel Margot Greenville .288 .337 .462 .800 80 3 7
    (19) IF Sean Coyle Portland .316 .381 .474 .855 57 2 6
    (20) OF Bryce Brentz Pawtucket .261 .349 .467 .816 92

    http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/

    What are they doing with player develomnet in the Red Sox system that has guys perfroming this well. Is it just better talent or are there development issues that need to be looked into. I really feel like the issues in the Phillies system go beyond just the players coaching and organizational philosophy needs to be addressed

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  18. They spend the money in the draft and latin market and have good scouts, simple, What a shame it is that a gm cant build a bullpen. Amaro is terrible, he overpays for pap and adams, and cant draft guys, who can pitch one stinking inning without getting in trouble. A draft was devoted to the bullpen, and still nothing, the starters must be really sick of pitching a good game ,and seeing the bullpen blow the lead.

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    1. roccom:
      Phillies have settled now in the NL East to the position that they will continually try to climb out of for the entire season.
      Marlins and Mets have some youthful talent so it will be a struggle.

      But with a half-glass full mentality, drafting position for 2015 could be very appealing.

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      1. I was looking at braves they have some nice talent at triple a. ready to fill in for uggla, and his big contract and the upton brother.I dont know how long they are signed for, but wish we had some of those young kids at triple a. I think the braves are in a great postion, already lock up there first basemen, ss and third, and couple of pitchers,They will battle washington imo for the next five years. I really dont know what the mets have or the marlins, so i cant comment on that.

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      2. Not necessarily. The NLEast is surprisingly strong after a month. We are in the cellar, but only a game below .500. If the current trend continues for all teams, our draft position for 2015 won’t be nearly as favorable as it is for this year. We’d have the #14 pick if draft position was frozen today, so roughly the same as last year’s draft.

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        1. I guess the big difference from 2013 would be that, unless two guys in first half of first round fail to sign from this year’s draft, our 2015 first rounder would be protected.

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        2. Hard to predict what teams will incur injuries and falter, but I see the following teams as finishing pct points below the Phillies:
          Astros: Toronto: Cubs: CWS: Twins: Padres: D-Backs:with the following having a chance to pass the Phillies…Mets: Marlins and Mariners.
          So at the worst I can see an 11th draft slot for 2015.
          Pure speculation at this point however.

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  19. It’s just so Phillies. Sorry, have to rant for a second. How many GD games are Phillies players going to miss this year because of the flu? Are you kidding me? It’s so Phillies – why don’t they tell these guys to get their friggin’ flu shots – better yet, why doesn’t a nurse make an appearance in the clubhouse right before a day off an give everybody a flu shot? This is just so stupid and unnecessary.

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    1. Now, they do seem to be an unhealthy group.
      But, on the other hand, there is a heavy dose of geriatric flavoring on the team, and older people tend to get sick.

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