2013 Draft Thoughts (And other Random Phillies Thoughts)

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Given that this is one of the first time in the past two weeks that I have worked less than 12 hours I thought I would write about the draft, and it kind of spiraled from there.

I want to start by thanking dcwildcat53 for posting the picks throughout Day 3 of the draft.

Your two biggest sources of information going forward are going to be Brad’s Draft Tracker which will remained pinned to the top until the signing deadline and the 2013 Draft Page.  We will work to add more content to both going forward to keep you up to date on signings and all other information you might desire about the 2013 draft.  Look for individual threads with major signings and news to pop up as we gain information.

Draft:

  • The Phillies first 6 picks were very solid, I have made it very clear that I am a big fan of drafting up the middle and that is what the Phillies did
  • Some quick Top 30 slotting (even though none will be on midseason rankings) – Crawford (Top 5), Sandburg and Knapp (Top 20), Sweaney and Hernandez (Top 30), and Williams (borderline Top 30)
  • I like the collection of late round guys but I don’t see anyone who is anything more than just interesting, that being said that is what you expect when you put your overslot money towards getting someone link Sandberg signed
  • I love the Sandburg and Hernandez picks because the team needs star power in the minors and that starts with drafting players with talent and they got that outside the first round
  • Don’t overlook Seniors, the Phillies have proved that if you have one plus pitch and an idea how to use it they can give you a chance at a bullpen job
  • Duplicating talent on a position isn’t bad, just ask the Reds who haven’t missed on 1st round pick in a while and turned some duplicate talent into Mat Latos

Minors:

  • Dugan is the one guy I wish I believed in more, the power is legitimate, don’t know about what else
  • If you follow me on Twitter you know that I tend to tweet out Yoel Mecias starts inning by inning, he would have been in the Top 30 if I knew he would be in the Lakewood rotation, I can’t jump way up the rankings until I here reports on the breaking ball, but yes he is in the conversation with Watson and Gueller now
  • Speaking of Watson, no bad scouting reports just bad results, would be nice to see if he put it together
  • I really don’t understand the Tommy Joseph negativity (he was only 20 pick ahead of Dugan in 2009)
  • The Williamsport team will be very interesting as Cozens, Pullin, Gueller, Vargas, and Green get into action along with others
  • Carlos Tocci is slugging higher than Larry Greene, Tocci should absolutely stick in LKW all year

Majors:

  • The offense is really bad and it is not going to get better
  • I have no idea what kind of player Domonic Brown is, but looks good so far
  • Unless someone is willing to blow you away for Cliff Lee I don’t see trading him
  • Jonathan Pettibone has done what scouts expected from him, his 4.64 FIP shows a pitcher who has gotten lucky to some extent, a solid #4 pitcher
  • Justin De Fratus is the second best reliever on the team right now, Mike Adams is not good
  • Given the state of the team I would absolutely like JP Crawford more than Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, or BJ Upton, this team is not one guy away
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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

75 thoughts on “2013 Draft Thoughts (And other Random Phillies Thoughts)”

  1. I agree with every one of your points about the Phillies. They are hard to watch right now even when the games are close. Phuture Phillies are my focus now .

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    1. The dynamite will come very soon if they continue to play like this. I don’t see trades yet but the Phillies may force Howard to have knee surgery and use Utley at 1B(when he returns) and start Cesar Hernandez at 2B to see how he will do. However, this team is so unpredictable they may go on a winning streak but Ruben should resist the temptation to keep this group together.

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  2. You mentioned Williamsport as interesting. What about the potential GCL lineup?

    Louis Alezones P
    Deivi Grullon C
    Jake Sweaney 1B/C/DH
    Jan Hernandez 2B/3B
    JP Crawford SS
    Trey Williams 3B/OF
    Jose Pujols LF
    Steve Golden CF
    Cord Sandberg RF

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    1. Is it set in stone that Crawford is going to the GCL or just an assumption? I am actually hoping he goes to WP.

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  3. Nice little read, looking forward to seeing scouting reports on all the players we sign if you’ll do that.

    Phillies are disappointing to watch. I did not understand why during Fridays game in the 9th inning of a tie game, after Horst got the first batter who was left handed to make an out, he continued to pitch even though the next few batters were all right handers and he ended up giving up 3 straight hits to lose the game.

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    1. Agreed and it seems losing streaks start with a gross mistake by the manager. Where the hell is Dubee when this stuff happens. How can you have more faith in Horst than Stutes? I feel your pain bro.

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  4. I agree the big club is in the June swoon. Any baseball guy will tell you have to beat the teams that are worse than you: The Mets, Brewers, Marlins and Twins for sure. The brew crew made them look bad and as you said, not getting any better. The only way I’d trade Lee is if Howard was tethered to him with no money thrown in. To paraphrase Steely Dan, Ruben don’t lose that number. Meaning next year’s draft choice with be higher than this years. Don’t screw that up. And the last word is: Go PhuturePhils.

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    1. I too have hard time watching them. I think that lee should stay, unless we can package howard like you said., with Hamels, Lee and Kenricks. and two legit hitters added to this team, this team can contend. Watching the Lehigh valley Iron pigs on tv. I am on the fence on what Asche can bring to this team. Just imo a hard guy to figure out. seems like a 260 major league hitter, with limited power, not a base stealer, okay defense, I think out of this recent draft we really need to get at least one fast track stud, hope knapp, advances fast. cause right now, our catching prospects all have limited hit ability,e The biggest thing going on in the furture is whether the phillies ownership, will let amaro run this team. I believe that is the biggest problem right now, and montgomery is the type who will stay with him, unless ownership tells them thats enough, watching the game last night, never realize that revere played 89 games in right field. I thought we were getting a great centerfielder listening to the phillies. he couldnt beat out span., cause as stated in broadcast, revere in right with that weak arm is unusually. the only thing to get excited about this year is with a top ten pick, and i hope a strong draft we have a chance to get a stud

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  5. Anyone disagree with JP being our second best prospect? I know it was said top 5 in the article, but word is he’ll be slotted number 2 in our system. I personally don’t see it. 3 perhaps.

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      1. Yeah I wouldn’t have him top 2. I’m a believer in having some body of work to evaluate before granting top 5 even top 10 status…

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      2. I agree. I still have Biddle and Franco 1 and 2. Quinn still takes #3 for me because he has more star potential, is farther along, and there are still some questions about Crawford’s hit tool in some (not all) scouting reports I have seen.

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    2. He is definitely behind Biddle and Franco (not sure BA disagrees they had to go off their released list though), depending on how they end the season, Quinn, Joseph, and Morgan could all put on enough of a run to slot above Crawford based on their more advanced level.

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    3. Crawford is #3. It’s a prospect ranking, not a minor league performer ranking. Being a 4 year starter on one of the best teams in Southern California and being the best Prep SS in the Nation means something.

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  6. Great job again Matt. Definitely excited about WPT and GCL because its where next years top 30 starts. While 1 and 2 should be locks Biddle/Franco the rest of group should add some major intrigue depending on how many guys sign quickly and how many PA’s they get in.

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  7. franco is what I dream crawford would be at age 20, so for me he barely cracks my top 5. Ill have to wait and see how morgan is doing and if quinn continues to improve and to show power.

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  8. I once called the winter moves as silly. It seems I was looking at a rose colored monitor. Other than Youngs OBP (negated by DBs) I can’t find one positive stat. Team defense and speed are also down. The only thing left is for Ruben to turn 2014 into another death hole.

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    1. Ruben can make one move now that will make things somewhat better….only offer Paps to the Tigers for Castellanos…if he gets him,. then put him in RF. The OF is set then for 5/7 years with Brown, Revere, and Castellanos across the board. Pieces start to fall into place. Except , of course, the big piece on first base.

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      2. In what world is Castellanos going to be traded for Papelbon? Never in a million years would the tigers do that.

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        1. Agree Chris……Wheeler would never have been traded in a million years for a ‘renbtal’ broken down Beltran!

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            1. A team in the playoff race who doesn’t have a closer would have to consider making this move. You would be surprised how much teams overvalue players at the trade deadline (Not saying they would do it). Especially if other teams add.

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            2. Well let’s say the Mike Adams to the Rangers deal is about what we could expect for Papelbon. He fetched Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin, two pitching prospects that weren’t in the top 100.

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            3. Lets say your the gm of Detroit. Rangers or Redsoxs add players like Lee, Garza, Rios, etc… You would not pull the trigger on acquiring one of the best closers right now for Nick Castellanos? Teams overvalue prospects (look at the past few phillies trades minus the pence trade).

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            4. Sure teams overvalue prospects, but prospects still have value. Castellanos is in the top 25 of all the prospects, any smart GM shouldn’t trade such a high prospect for an aging closer. Closers are overvalued in their own right. There are ways for the Tigers to get Papelbon without giving up such a prospect because the Phillies would be the ones making demands above market value. This is shown by the return that Mike Adams brought to the Padres. DMAR’s proposal of getting Garcia for Papelbon is a little more realistic. Right now the TIgers are keeping Castellanos out of trade offers like Dom Brown was in all of RAJ’s trades.

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          2. Sabean is a bit of a gun slinger…Dombrowski not so much. But I do think you might have a shot at Garcia and you might have to include some money in the deal.

            I’d do that deal right now and be done with D. Young. Avi becomes my everyday RF and Revere and Mayberry platoon out the season in CF. Avi is not a superstar today or even next year but he does have plenty of projection.

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            1. Platooning Revere with Mayberry isn’t going to be effective, as Revere hits lefties better than righties (this year BA of .306 vs. lefties; .230 vs righties). .

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          3. I honestly think that was a 1 time thing. Just because 1 team was willing to do something that dumb doesn’t mean the other ones are.

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        2. Great comments, but may we give a hint of credit where credit is due? Lots of criticism for JRoll for not running out routine grounders, and asking why not give the effort but Howard completely tears his ACL losing over a year, busting out a routine grounder and gets no love. He’s a historical slow starter, has worked himself into good shape, is obviously trying hard and is not having a terrible year – unless you measure it against his previous all star and mvp numbers

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          1. I don’t think the real criticism concerns his hustle or his effort in coming back from his injury. Howard needs to change his approach at the plate. It has been obvious for years. He needs to hit the other way to beat the shift as well as figure out a way to consistently hit or at least get on base against LHs. He can’t be the player the Phillies need him to be (let alone come close to justifying a substantial portion of his salary) if his OBP is the same as his K rate and he is not hitting HRs at a rate that is not on par with the HR rates of Galvis and Mayberry, let alone Kratz and D. Young (again, I recognize with respect to the HRs, some of the factors at play are beyond his control). He needs to get on base more or if not, provide something more than Mayberry or maybe even what Ruf could provide (this is not necessarily a pro-Ruf comment, but rather a reflection of how Howard’s production has fallen).

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            2. One typo — HR rate that is on par with Galvis and Mayberry and less than Kratz and D. Young.

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        1. Phillies need Garry Maddox or someone to work with Revere on balls hit over his head as Gary Matthews was all over him about his misplay in CF. Revere also needs to stop playing so deep so he can be a defensive asset.

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          1. We are talking about a major league outfielder who misjudges fly balls, that is so bad, this guy is a offense and defense bust.

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            2. nope, but i might have held onto mays and vanimal for a worthy acquisition, mayberry is already playing center field , so basically the phills gave up a starting pitcher and a good prospect for a bench guy who doesnt hit and doesnt field well, I think a player of his caliber could be found on nearly every aaa team , for absolutely nothing , hopefully he proves me wrong , and he is young so maybe an improvement is in his future , but i took off my sunglasses because the future dont look to bright

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          2. gary Matthews dosent know what he is talking about half the time. They were talking about it on the post game and on the radio that Gary was really bashing Revere when that is one of the hardest balls to catch in baseball

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  9. Torn on Lee. I think if you can trade him for a top prospect who is majors ready in 2014, you have to think about it. There are no free agent pitchers worth much coming up in the near future, except for Kershaw in 2014 .. but there is no way LA is letting him go… So Lee, has a lot of value even at his age, as a reliable, steady pitcher.. Sort of a Greg Maddux type with great control.. It makes more sense he will stay dominant for a few years as compared to a fire-baller who could lose it

    But., keeping him isnt bad either..If we go with
    Lee-Biddle-Hamels- Kendrick- ? next year, that isnt bad.. of course too many lefties..

    Does Papelbon have any trade value? It seems that he is wasted money, as we do not utilize him enough (because we arent winning a lot) to justify the contract

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    2. Papelbon has trade value akin probably to someone like Victorino or Pence last year. Maybe not even that

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      1. Chris, I think that Jonathan Papelbon has more value than you give him credit for as he has 2 1/2 years left on his contract. He has done a great job closing when given the oppurtunity and would make a team like the Detroit Tigers much better.

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      2. Papelbon has value on par of Victorino and Pence and may have more value to a World Series-caliber team that scuffles to put out a consistent and reliable option in the 9th inning. He is an upper echelon closer with two years left on his contract and does not show signs that he is losing it. Closers may not have the same value as they did 5 years ago, but he would be a huge upgrade to those teams that need back end of the bullpen help and may be that team’s final piece (i.e. Detroit, or if the Dodgers get their act together, they could have Jansen in the 8th and Papelbon in the 9th, even if Jansen does well in the closer’s role and may ultimately be the better of the two — they certainly won’t be do a deal to have Papelbon pitch the 8th). Even still, it is unlikely a Papelbon trade yields a team’s top prospect.

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        1. The closest thing to a top reliever getting traded recently was Mike Adams to the Rangers. He netted the Padres Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin. Good prospects but nothing on par with top guys in the nation

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            1. I would do the deal . The Tigers, however, would not. At least I don’t think so. Castellanos is a top 25 prospect, you don’t give that up for a top line reliever.

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            2. Maybe throw in another small piece with Paps, like M Young or D Young or Lannan or Nix or Frandsen, depending on Detroit’s needs at the time, and maybe that plus some $$$ can get them Castellanos.

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    1. Problem is Garza’s probably going to cost a draft pick too. Unless our pick is protected (top 10) I don’t think we’re going to be signing a big name FA this year.

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    2. I think we need to think about Lee differently. Assuming teams are really willing to pick up his entire salary in a deal, the decision the Phils face is the equivalent to signing him now to a free agent deal of 2 yrs, with a 3rd year option, and guaranteeing him a minimum of $55+M. With where this team is at, there is no reason to do that, AND give up 2-3 prospects, potentially high caliber.

      In addition, is Cliff Lee really going to pitch this well through those 2-3 years? There is always a risk of injury, like Halladay’s situation, popping up at his age. I’d definitely move him if I was the GM, assuming no $ is required and there are real, good prospects involved.

      As for Garza, if the Phils trade Lee and others, that draft pick could definitely become protected.

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  11. Does anyone know when WP and GCL leagues start ? Also have they signed any of their 40 picks ? KC signed 20 picks yesterday

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  12. Can’t wait to see how the Crosscutters do. If Gueller has improved his secondaries and Vargas shows some improved control the pitching depths may not be so bleak. Also looking forwardto seeing Cozens in action. An of course Pujols in GCL. Anyone that draws mike stanton comps is always interesting.

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  14. J Valverde blew another save today for Tigers. Paps HAS to be looking good to them right about now.

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  15. New Number 1 Prospect
    1 Franco= dude has a chance @ 30 HR and 100RBI and hit 300 @ 20years old in pitcher friendly FSL while gold gloving it @ 3b ( Dont know why people insist Biddle is # 1.) Franco is the best Prospect we have! I like biddle as a # 3 starter on a 1st Div club. But franco has a chance to hit 3rd on a 1st div club. Im taking Franco.

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    2. I’ve been noticing you making posts and so as not to have people be confused I will change my name.

      Anyway I had Franco as my #2 prospect before the season started. I have to agree with you that even though Biddle has pitched great this season, it’s entirely possible for Franco to have surpassed him.

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      1. This is a good debate. I would give the slight edge to Biddle based on proximity since he has proven he can beat AA which is the real proving ground for a prospect. I will say Franco has made up a lot of ground in my book though

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        1. That and pitching is always a premium. Not bashing good third basemen but if I had a choice between a third baseman and a pitcher as a prospect, I’m going with the pitcher. Personal preference of course.

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    3. I think you are overrating Franco on many levels, and I don’t want this to come across as Franco bashing, more just acknowledgement he is not a perfect prospect.
      – He does not profile as a .300 hitter, it is more a profile in the .280 range
      – Franco does not add as much in OBP as you want, I know we beat walks to death but Franco is never going to have a high walk rate because he swings so often, the strikeout will also be fairly low, but by not walking those are free bases he is leaving on the table
      – The defense is good but nowhere near elite, the arm is very good but he is slow footed and the range is a problem if you looking for more than a possible plus defender
      – You quoted RBI which is an irrelevent stat
      – Not that it is a big deal, but Franco is slow on the bases and will add nothing with his legs.

      It may seem like nitpicking but it is the difference between a guy who is really good and an elite franchise changer.

      Biddle has in own set of issues (control, changeup), but they are very similar overall profiles and Biddle has proven he can handle AA.

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      1. How is he not elite @ 3b? Has only 4 e’s. Im Gonna try to get a hold of franco and tell him dont hit Any moré 2bs or hr.try to walk insted. Name a better 3b prospect in The minors. And dont say sano because sano will be a 1b/lf in 2 years. I can name 5 starting pitching prospects better than biddle.(not bashing biddle but it is The truth)

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        1. Start off with the fact there are 5 times as many starting pitchers as third basemen so it is kind of silly to compare where they rank. I have Biddle as the 3rd best LHP in the minors (behind Skaggs and Fried). As for third basemen I am going to say Sano (if you want to say he will move this is a slippery slope that leads to Baez at 3B), Gallo, and Cowart (Rendon has eligibility and was just called up, you also have Arenado who was called up).

          Do not use errors as a judge for defense. Franco has limited range compared to elite defenders. The lack of walks is due to the kind of hitter he is, I have said the offensive profile is similar to Beltre who has a career .280/.331/.477. If he tried to change his approach it would do more harm, but that doesn’t mean he is less of a prospect.

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          1. Replace Gallo with Cecchini. Cecchini is on Law’s updated top 25 and Gallo has already struck out 100 times in 230 ABs in low. I don’t care how many HRs he hits. I think Franco and Ceccini are really close.

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          2. The Beltre comp might even be generous. At Franco’s age, Beltre was a league average hitter in the majors. If Franco was hitting .267/.344/.414 in the majors right now (Beltre’s age 20 line in 2012 run environment), this site would explode.

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  16. Cowart is hitting 218. I see that draft status and what other publications had on a player before The year weigh heavy on your choices. Anyway lets root for franco and biddle and hopefully in 2 years we have 2 allstar players.

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