2013 MLB Draft – Pre-Draft Open Thread

2013 Draft

Only 4 hours away from the start of the draft.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

38 thoughts on “2013 MLB Draft – Pre-Draft Open Thread”

      1. There are only a few college pitchers I’d be interested in and they will be long gone by the time the Phillies pick.

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  2. I would love for the Phillies to grab smith or Crawford. They need a top notch position prospect and I think smith can be that player. Fingers crossed he’s there when the Phil’s pick.

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  3. Anyone have a sense of how quickly Dominic Smith could reach the majors? I saw somewhere today that the Phillies could use him in right field “because of the presence of Ryan Howard,” but is his ETA realistically before late 2016 (and you’ll forgive me for being skeptical that Howard will still be taking the field for the Phillies at that point)? Hard to see it.

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    1. That will be the final year of Howard’s contract so I think it is quite likely he will still be taking the field. Why would he forgo $35 million by retiring and who would take him of the Phillies’ hands?

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      2. I would expect he’d be injured or released by then, honestly. He’s struggling to stay on the field now; is his body going to hold up for another three years?

        Agreed the team’s on the hook for the money either way; disagree that the prospect of a hobbled Howard on the roster should in any way impact how the team handles Smith, if he’s the pick.

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        1. I agree that Howard’s status should not affect whether Smith is drafted, but I don’t see the Phillies releasing Howard especially if they don’t have a much better replacement lined up. Hell, platooning Howard with Ruf would be the right move at this point but the Phillies refuse to hurt the Big Piece’s feelings.

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    2. Late 2016 is a very optimistic arrival time for Dominic Smith. Quinn has a lot of skill, doesn’t need to await physical maturity for his primary skill to fully surface, as will be the case with Smith and his power, and yet look how long it will take Quinn to progress from draft to majors, even if all goes well. He is holding his own and showing bright spots at Lakewood, but certainly doesn’t look like he’s moving beyond Clearwater in 2014. He will need at least another minor league season in Reading/Allentown in 2015. The absolute earliest he starts in Philly in beginning of 2016. I don’t expect Dominic Smith to be on a faster path than that. A healthy HS pitcher with the ability of a Hamels can move faster than that, but then look how long it is taking guys like Drabek and Cosart.

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      1. My understanding is that Smith’s primary tools are hit/eye and glove; the power will be good, but not outstanding. In that sense, he reminds me a lot of Freddie Freeman, who reached the majors at 20 and was there for good at 21. That would be Late 2016/17 for Smith.

        That’s a purely tools-based analysis, though. I haven’t scouted Smith and have no idea what kind of maturation needs to take place.

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      2. Drabek made it to the show. Cosart hasn’t commanded well enough to be promoted even on a lousy Astros team.

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    2. BA’s report in 2011

      Greene isn’t quite one-dimensional, but it’s close. He’s a physical beast at 6-foot-2, 235 pounds, and one evaluator compared his power to that of Russell Branyan, another south Georgia lefthanded hitter. Green was dominating and putting on huge power displays against modest pitching, pushing himself into first-round consideration. However, scouts who saw him last summer recall he struggled mightily with velocity at the East Coast Pro Showcase. Greene is somewhat stiff but is an average runner, which should give him a chance to play left field, but some scouts think he’ll wind up as more of a first base/DH type. Greene’s value is mostly in his bat and well above-average raw power. He’s likely to put on a display in individual workouts for teams prior to the draft.

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  5. More I’m reading, looks like Smith may be gone by 16. Possibly J.P. Crawford also. They may have a shot at Ryne Stanek. Or I could see them reaching a bit and talking Hunter Harvey. Harvey’s said he won’t be going to college, so the Phillies may figure they have the bargaining power to sign him below slot.

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  6. my favorite hitters i think the phillies should get are renfroe,smith,and mickenney. Not a gif fan of crawford especially with our up the middle depth. I just dont think he will hit

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  7. I will be interested to see if the Phillies go more conservative this year in the early rounds. I think they will with an eye toward prospects who don’t require so much seasoning.
    Gueller and Watson are light years away and you would have to be a real optimist to think any of Collier, Hewitt, Greene will ever be MLB all-stars if they make it at all.
    In a strange way, Biddle was actually a safe pick, its just that he probably belonged being picked lower than he was.
    Joe Savery was the last college player and the only 1 or 1s college pick out of the last 15.

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  9. Smith is not a player to go after. Not projected to be a cf. Doesn’t have the power for the alleys.

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  10. Im hoping Peterson or Renfroe slip to 16. Doubtful but hopeful. I want a middle of the lineup hitter in round one if there is one available. If not, you can never go wrong with pitching. No more toolsy fast guys.

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        1. Franco and Cozens are the only two projected middle of the lineup hitters in the organization….and Ruf. They have enough 2 hole and 6 hole hitters. Get some projected power.

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  11. Hunter Renfro @ Miss St. 21 years old. Outfielder plus arm good bat. Projected to go at 11 to the Mets. He will fall lower hopefully to the Phillies

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    1. Agree. Would love to see them take one of the college hitters. But even if he’s thre, they probably won’t.

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  12. Also, I have a church league playoff softball game to play in so I’ll miss the draft. Can’t wait to come back and read all your posts.

    Gregg, Matt and everyone who has taken over this site has done an amazing job. Continue to keep up the great work!

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  13. I think signability will be a BIG deal for the draft. (and will be from now on due to the signing bonus restrictions.)

    Unless you have Strasburg/Harper at the top it makes sense (to me at least) for the Top5 teams to save huge $$ to acquire ‘better’ (sign more next tier) HS players. With such a poor rate of success from the MLB draft I’d definitely prefer having 4 ‘very good’ picks than 1 ‘great’ pick.

    Based on that theory, I think Reese McGuire and Domonic Smith are the two guys who might take less $$ in the Top5 since they are likely 8-15 type guys on talent. But it appears that both have low floors which will probably not make their teams look too stupid for taking them.

    For Phillies, I think they need to take the highest talent guy they can. That player would have to take a pretty significant risk that they’d be a Top5 pick in the future to turn down even the Phillies slot number. Especially seeing that their huge number was not rewarded even if they are the best talent that draft year.
    That’s why I think Manaea is very interesting. Do Phillies think he will fully recover? If so do they take his bluff and possibly lose the pick? I’d definitely take any of the other guys though. Stewart or Ball if they fall.

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  14. Stop with Manaea. He’s damaged goods physically and damaged goods in the Phillies eyes because Scott Boras is his agent.

    Phillies take Josh Hart.

    You know they’re taking Hart. Big toolsy over draft who Tom McCarthy will say of next week on a Phillies broadcast at the conclusion of Hart’s introductory interview: “Josh Hart’s parents sure raised a good one.”

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  15. I know nothing but wanted to guess the first round:
    McGuire
    Appel
    Gray
    Bryant
    Frazier
    Smith
    Stewart
    Bickford
    Meadows
    Ball
    Moran
    Tellez
    Peterson
    Shipley
    Stanek
    Renfroe to Phillies

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