Reader Top 30 – Complete List

2013 Reader Top 30

The Reader Top 30 is finally completed and here is your list:

  1. Biddle
  2. Quinn
  3. Morgan
  4. Joseph
  5. Franco
  6. Ruf
  7. Asche
  8. Pettibone
  9. Martin
  10. Tocci
  11. Aumont
  12. Gillies
  13. Watson
  14. Greene
  15. Valle
  16. De Fratus
  17. Collier
  18. Wright
  19. Cozens
  20. Hernandez
  21. Gueller
  22. Walding
  23. Pullin
  24. Giles
  25. Colvin
  26. Rupp
  27. Dugan
  28. Lino
  29. Green
  30. Brady

What is everyone’s initial reaction?

Here is how it stacks up against other lists that have come out:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aq9atTaYBdErdDFibUpEVENleTB0Mnk1X0dSb19DSWc#gid=0

Here is the schedule for the rest of the week:

Monday: Reader submitted Top 30s

Tuesday: Sleepers and Breakouts

Wednesday: Matt’s Top 30

Thursday: Brad’s Top 30

Friday: Gregg’s Top 30

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

44 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 – Complete List”

    1. Agree, a reasonable list, but not a particularly impressive one. While I’m not really up to speed on similar lists for other MLB teams, I can easily understand why this system would be ranked in the #25 to #28 range.

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  3. I think overall the list is solid. You can quibble with certain things but for the most part the right guys were ranked.

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  4. I had 28 of our 30, and my 31 is our 29, so fairly close. Lino is the one I am way lower on than the list, (in addition to Ruf and Gillies), and I am way high on Gueller and Brady compared to the list.

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  5. I got 27 out of the top 30 on my list. All 30 selected, are in my top 35. I like the order for the most part. Except: Ruf and Gillies are about 5-7 spots too high. Watson and Brady are a couple of spots too low.
    During the vote, after getting more information, I changed my ranking of Kenny Giles, so now I think he is too low. I am pleasantly surprised that Gabriel Lino received enough support to make the list. Disappointed that Vargas did not get any support.

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  6. I don’t have most of the GCL guys, or Giles, Ruf and Gillies, ranked nearly as high as they are on this list, but I can’t argue too much with it other than that.

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  7. Interesting that only 4 will likely graduate from this list (hopefully) – Ruf, Aumont, Pettibone, and DeFratus.

    Also, 10 of the top 12 will likely be in AAA or MLB in 2014 if all goes according to plan.

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  8. I like the list. It doesn’t agree completely with mine, in part because I didn’t rank Watson and Gueller. Simon, Astudillo, Altherr, Cloyd, Knigge make my list. I have Walding lower on my list, probably too low and Asche higher. I don’t have LIno, although that likely is a mistake on my part. IF I were making the list today, I would include him. Perhaps I will. I also don’t have Collier. I do have Dugan and actually like Collier better than him.

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  9. A good list. I was a little disappointed that Cloyd didn’t make it late although he doesn’t have a huge upside I think he will pitch in the big leagues in some capacity this year, (maybe not with the Phillies). Not as many pitchers as I expected since all we hear is the strength of the Phillies minors is in pitching.

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        1. By which I mean you have to set that certainty against a guy with a lot more potential, but perhaps only a 10% of meeting that potential.

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          1. He’s a 5-6 starter ceiling, but there’s no guarantee he won’t be a AAAA starter or a middle reliever and a non-tender and on the way to playing in Korea in 2016 when he runs out of options.

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  10. It is interesting to see what we create when we act together. I like the list. All of our lists are probably different, but this list is ours. That feels good and it’s not bad.

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  11. Reader lists from a couple of years back were bad. The collective minor league iq is much higher now as this is a respectable list. Some quibble worthy stuff, but nothing egregious.

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    1. This one will probably look bad in a few years too. Not because we’re stupid, but prospects are so unpredictable.

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  13. I agree with others that the education of the readership is quite impressive. Many people probably had about 25+ of the 30 on their own list. Either that or everyone is swayed by what they read on this site.

    I suppose I am still not convinced on Giles. It seems that many 100mph guys do not have long dominant careers,I also remain somewhat unconvinced that Giles has anything but a straight fastball and fringy offspeed stuff. I’d love to be wrong but need to see scouting reports from this season, rather than relying on the Phillies FO evaluation.

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  14. My only complaint about this list is that it tends to value projection over ML production.

    For instance, De Fratus will almost certainly contribute to the Phils this year, maybe even open the season with the team. Greene has maybe a 25% chance of ever reaching the Majors. Yet Greene is ranked higher.

    Sure, there is almost zero chance De Fratus ever becomes an All-Star, and maybe Greene’s upside will allow him to reach that level. But, for ranking purposes, I prefer bird-in-hand.

    Just my opinion.

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    1. Here are my thoughts on this:

      The value a prospect provides is performance in excess of what you pay them. You could go to the free agent market and buy a reliever for 0.5-3 million (depending on the quality). The difference between what you pay JDF and what you pay that free agent reliever is pretty small, so his value is small.

      A guy like Greene is potentially worth way more. If he develops into an all star, you could get 10 wins in excess of what you pay. That’s a lot of money to spend on other positions.

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      1. Good point, Ramsey.

        I think I’m still upset when, four years ago, I ranked Happ higher that anyone else on this site…and took much grief for it. I had him second in the Dec ’08 Reader Top 30, based on prox.

        01. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
        02. Lou Marson, C
        03. Jason Donald, SS
        04. Kyle Drabek, RHP
        05. Michael Taylor, OF
        06. Dominic Brown, OF
        07. JA Happ, LHP

        And I stand by my point that actually contributing in the Majors, regardless of how mediocre, trumps a boatload of potential sunk in the minors.

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        1. Funny how you left Travis D’arnaud off the above list there, to help show your point. You do realize that Happ isn’t any goo, right?
          That list perfectly illustrates the opposite of your point. Those guys (plus D’arnaud) who were ‘stuck’ in the minors, had enough prospect value to land the two (2) best pitchers in baseball. It doesn’t matter that most of them won’t pan out. They already provided more value in wins than Happ will, for his entire career.

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            1. For a guy who isn;t any ‘good’ as you say….still pitching in the big leagues,,,someone must think he is at least mediocre.

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            3. I didn’t leave anyone off that list. That was taken from the Reader Top 30, Dec 2008. Its still on this site.

              Regardless of how mediocre, Happ’s a contributing Major Leaguer. That’s more than any of the six voted ahead of him.

              While there is still time for some voted ahead of him to shine (hopefully Brown), its hard not to argue that, of that list, Happ has had the best career; and therefore should have been rated higher as a prospect; especially since the vote was taken months before Happ was ready to contribute.

              Bird in hand. And that’s why I think De Fratus should be rated higher than Greene. And that’s why, in 2008, I voted Happ the second best prospect in the org.

              Again, just my opinion, but I think prox counts for a lot in prospect rankings.

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            4. You were wrong then and you still don’t understand now. Prospects are stocks. Their trade value is their worth. Happ wasn’t the #2 prospect then and it’s silly to use him as an example of why you are right, because he is a replacement level player now.

              The value of the guys ranked ahead of Happ was validated, when they were used to get Halladay and Cliff Lee. Prospect value is fluid, like stocks. Those guys had more value than Happ, no matter how bad you want to hold onto a 5 year old opinion.

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            5. And who was Happ used to get…as what you say is ‘stock value’? A future HOF I believe , another pitcher named Roy!

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            6. Happ was a close to throw-in, in the Oswalt deal. The real prizes were Villar and Gose (who for some stupid reason was flipped for Brett Wallace). I know we trash Ed Wade but he bought Happ at an innings eating #4/#5 starter price to throw in money with Oswalt.

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            7. To use your stock analogy, let’s say there’s a growth stock, that’s currently trading low, but has a possibility of skyrocketing within the next two years. And there’s a value stock, that projects steady albeit unspectacular returns.

              If the growth stock fails to take off, while the value stock delivers on its expected return, there’s no way you can argue, in hindsight, that you were better off investing in the growth stock. The value stock has appreciated while the growth stock has not.

              Please don’t tell me I’m wrong when I correctly predicted Happ was the better investment in December 2008. His modest gains outperform any of the six voted above him.

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            8. Matt……if I remember correctly…Happ was far from the ‘throw-in’ in that deal. Without him, there was no deal. Gose’s immediate trade only tells you that he was ‘stock’ for Wallace. And as for Villar, someday he will be there, maybe the next GM will benefit from his arrival.

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    2. Could go with a top ten list for prox. and a separate top ten list for projection…but then again we could have lists all over the place!

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  16. This is a reasonable ranking and we all rate guys slightly differently so there’s never a right or wrong assessment. I always come back to how few possible star players (possibe all stars) we have in our system. When the national guys rate a system, they’re looking for possible future stars and we don’t have many. Will we think differently a year from now? Let’s hope so. We do have a few guys who could develop to a higher ceiling, just not that many. Who is #1 and #2 a year from now?

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    1. Grullon – Top catcher in the Dominican, plus defensive projection due to smooth footwork and soft hands with a plus arm, real questions about the bat and approach (long swing and not a lot of power). GCL in 2013

      Pujols – Power and lots of it from an incredibly fast bat (best power in July 2 class). The swing will need to be completely reworked and simplified (he actually move the bat too quickly through the hitting zone, in addition to a large uppercut), needs an approach. The arm is only average might be better in left long term. Still has the frame to add another 30+ pounds of muscle and more power. Similar to Santana but Pujols’ swing is much more loose and he has more raw power.

      Alezones – Projectable righty, fastball took a big jump before signing but still only average velocity, all three pitches profile as at least average with the changeup ahead of the breaking ball. Slight build but should get some limited work in the GCL, but don’t expect a lot of innings yet.

      Willerker Isava – 200k bonus, Venezuelan shortstop, sounds like a lot of ordinary tools in the field and at the plate right now, but has the build to have some good projection when he fills out.

      Gregori Rivero – 110k bonus, Venezuelan catcher, converted catcher and third baseman who is really raw behind the plate. Advanced bat with a short compact swing that already shows good gap power.

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  18. I agree with Keith Law’s assessment: there are not a lot of drool-worthy prospects on this list, but with so much of the talent below AA, there’s a chance that things could change in a big way. A year from now, if things go right in a big way, we could have a completely different looking Top 5, with guys like Greene, Cozens, Watson, Gueller and Tocci all capable of staging a big breakout and competing for space with guys like Quinn, Joseph and Franco. I’m not saying it will happen, but it’s conceivable, there’s a lot of upside there. And I am particularly happy that, in Franco, Greene and Cozens, it seems like the system finally has a few legit power prospects.

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