I think overall on upside alone, with nothing given to their ability to reach it, it has to be:
Biddle
May
Martin
Watson
Gueller
Colvin
Morgan
Wright
Pettibone
Obviously this is not an order of their prospect rankings as the risk is really high on many of them.
I think it’s Martin, May, Biddle. Of course that is based only on stuff. Given the choice, Biddle would be my pick in a draft at this point because Biddle seems to have a complete package of stuff, control/command, and being a lefty.
When you take into account that he is lefty I think Biddle’s stuff actually stacks up well with the other two. His fastball is probably a grade worse than May and Martin, but from reports his secondary stuff grades better than the righties. They all have #2 upside but when in doubt tie goes to the lefties
So, the question, as I reformulate it, is: who is most likely to become an ace? I think Biddle has to be in the lead right now, but, you know what, I think Adam Morgan might be second.
If you asked who is likely to become a solid top of the rotation starter, I think the answer would still be Biddle, but I might take May or Martin next. The super young guys are too far away from the majors for me to project anything yet.
I disagree with the first statement, I think Morgan’s ceiling is as a solid to above average #3 starter, not an ace, the pure stuff just isn’t there. I think he is fairly safe to reach at least #4 starter. If forced to put a comp on him I would look at the season Jonathan Niese has put up this year. Really valuable for what he is being paid but not top of the rotation
It’s a fair point of difference. I used to think that about him, but when I see that he can pump the velocity up to 94-96 on occasion (that’s harder than Biddle throws) and that he throws multiple breaking pitches, my thoughts changed. But to get to his ceiling his command is going to have to improve a lot.
On upside alone, I gave it to May based on stuff. I think Biddle and Martin are more likely to put it all together, but I think May, from the reports I’ve seen, has the best raw stuff and the most pure upside.
write in vote for Colvin, since the poll doesn’t factor in probability of occurence. If the question was written as “most likely to pitch in the big leagues for many years independent of upside”, I’d probably put ole Brody at the bottom of the list.
Agreed, I think Biddle, May, and Martin (and probably the GCL guys and Colvin but it is hard to get a feel for them) have #2 upside. There is no ace in the system, which is probably fine when you assume that Hamels is a #1 and likely will be for a while, Lee is a borderline #1/#2, and Halladay is a #2, you need to just fill in around that for cheap as the going rate for a #2 is 17-20mil a year (pretty much whatever Grienke gets this offseason) and a #3 is 13-16mil a year.
Cliff Lee is a #1 and has been since 2008. He’s not as consistent as you would like your ace to be, but he’s among a small handful of starters in baseball who can go on a run where he completely dominates for a month or more. Hamels is great, but he’s never done that and he’s never yet reached the WAR heights Lee has at his peak (including this year, by the way – Lee is still outWARing Hamels by Fangraphs, even though he has not been at his best). Last year, Baseball Reference had Lee leading all of baseball with a 8.8 – if that ain’t an ace, I don’t what is (and he’s lost NOTHING in his stuff between this year and last – things just haven’t gone as planned until recently).
And, as much as I laud Lee, I am genuinely concerned about Halladay. Right now, he’s a #3, although I think with a winter of rest and planning, he probably will ascend back to at least a #2. Damn – if that guy needs to learn a knuckler to be succesful I wouldn’t put it past him.
Halladay still has a 4:1 K:BB this year. That’s worse than before but still excellent. He’s giving up more fly balls, but he’s also been hurt by a low strand rate this year which is probably mostly luck. He’s not a top 3 pitcher in baseball anymore but he’s still very good, certainly not a mid rotation starter on most teams.
My one concern with Lee is the consistency, I evaluate pitchers by the idea that if you have to ask if they are an ace then they are probably not an ace (I have high standards so we might have Lee in the same spot overall but classify him differently). I might miss someone but the aces in baseball off the top of my head are Verlander, Price, Hamels, Weaver, Felix, Kershaw, Strasburg with borderline pitchers being Cain (it just doesn’t feel right), Sale (needs to prove it another year), Lee (just isn’t as consistent as you might want), and Dickey (how do you evaluate a knuckleballer).
Baseball Reference has Cole Hamels having a .3 higher WAR. I think Cliff Lee not being at his best really comes down to bad luck.
They’re both Ace level pitchers. Cole’s much more consistent but Cliff Lee is at his best, he is the best lefty in the game. (Nothing against Kershaw… just my opinion).
I still think Cole Hamels has his best years in front of him (ala Cliff Lee). I think he’s got a Cy Young caliber season in him.
Considering the lack of really high draft pick’s we’ve had lately (thankfully) the fact that there isn’t a true “Ace” in the system isn’t surprising at all. As you mentioned, we have Cole for the next 6 years and Cliff for another 4(?). So, having controllable #2-#3 caliber starters behind them is certainly valuable.
Keep in mind also, that the Phillies have the money to go out and sign a Clayton Kershaw or a Felix Hernandez or a Justin Verlander if they hit the free agent market, so it’s not like they can’t acquire one if need be.
I don’t think any of them will hit the market. The trend has been to lock these guys up to massive extensions and the only way to obtain one is to trade the farm. Looking back the only aces to hit the market have been Lee and Sabathia (who was definitely an ace before this year when injuries have reduced him to a #2). Both were in small markets and were traded for large hauls before hitting the market and were in a small market (Cleveland) that could not resign them. There is a reason why the Phillies gave Hamels what he wanted.
Voting purely on upside, I say May Martin Biddle. Ranking them as prospects, I’d guess you put Biddle first, and a very close discussion of May, Martin, and Morgan, with Pettibone Watson and Wright behind them, then Guellar, Colvin, Vargas, Brady, Rodriguez in the next bunch, and guys like Garner, Warner, Manny Martinez, Milner and Manzanillo after that. System’s definitely looking deeper than it has for a few years, even if it lacks a true ace at the top. The first 7 guys I would say look like they should be big league starters, with a strong next 5 “maybes” and Manzanillo as a big sleeper depending on his health. Some will flame out, some will shine, some will be traded three times and wind up leading a rival to a division title.
Man, let’s hope that doesn’t happen again. Missin’ you, Gio.
I’m thinking it’s Colvin, even though we know his chances of getting there are almost nonexistent. After him it’s probably somebody like Gueller or Watson, but as for the guys on the list I think it’s Ethan Martin. Big fastball, high draft pick, good secondary stuff I think. Even when May and Biddle are pitching well we keep hearing that they’re #2’s or 3’s at best.
I understand your reasoning, but disagree. We look at Colvin as being a great talent because he was a high profile signing, but Martin and Watson both have pedigrees as good or better than Colvin.
Also, if you are of the mind that Watson has the highest ceiling, why is his ceiling higher than Martin’s? Watson is what Martin was, in 2008.
I guess I’m taking “highest upside” to mean “best stuff/talent.” So, assuming a guy can improve his control but is less likely to improve their stuff, I’d take Colvin. It just comes down to what I’ve read about each guy and it seems to me that Brody’s stuff is held in the highest regard. And if Watson and Martin’s pure stuff is about equal, I take Watson because he hasn’t gone through the struggles that Martin has with command, using that as sort of a tie-breaker. Maybe he’ll fly through the system- we don’t know because he’s so far away but that’s why most of the “high upside” guys are always in the lower parts of the system.
The newly drafted guys always seem to have the most upside, it is very rare to gain upside (Biddle did with refinding his velocity and Morgan showed more than he had before), for the most part as players advance and their flaws are shown their upside diminishes. There is a good argument to be made that 2008 Martin has much more upside than 2012 Martin (2008 Martin was the best prep RHP in the draft and had a small chance at #1 upside).
Voted Biddle, but considered Martin. Martin has the biggest arm, and had the better pedigree when drafted. Took Biddle because he is lefthanded, and has enough ‘stuff’ (as a LH) to be a #2 starter. Ultimately, both Martin and May’s ceiling is lower because they don’t have command, and therefore will either become relievers or at best #3-4 starters.
“Ultimately, both Martin and May’s ceiling is lower because they don’t have command, and therefore will either become relievers or at best #3-4 starters.”
I see this comment a lot and don’t quite get it. If a pitcher has problems with command how is he better suited for the BP? The only rationale I can think of is shortening up his pitch arsenal and going with this 2 or 3 best pitches. But if a guy is wild BP is last place I want him. At least as a starter they have some innings to find a groove.
You have part of the argument which is that make the arsenal much smaller and leave them with maybe a fastball and breaking ball. The other part is the reason for the control issues which is usually their mechanics falling apart. In the bullpen you have to repeat your delivery a fewer amount of times and so fatigue and other things like that so the delivery tends to stay together better. Ultimately you can live with a guy walking people in the bullpen more than as a starter because as a starter walks eat up pitch counts which shorten outings which ultimately leads to the bullpen being used more. A walk is just as bad coming from a starter as a reliever, to say otherwise is counter intuitive as the value of the walk does not change based on when it is issued
To counter that it takes some pitchers an inning or to find their mechanics or release point. I’ve seen box scores where May struggles early on then find a groove later on.
Point is I don’t know if guy with good stuff but bad command is recipe for the pen.
this is hard, I never seen any of these kids pitch, but based on what I have read, its most likely martin, if he continues without injury.this is interesting. maybe some time this winter, we do a projected 2017 phillies starting eight.Like joseph at catcher, whos on first, whats on second. nevermind forgot where he played. gillies in center, asche or franco at third, cant think who will be left fieldr or right or second basemen, or shortstop.
Going into the season, Biddle was ranked top three pitcher in the system. In his 2011 Lakewood season his BB/9 innings was 4.5, K/9 8.4 with a 1.27 WHIP.
Ethan Martin’s 2012 season combined in AA has a 4.5 BB/9 IP, 8.8 K/9 and a 1.24 WHIP.
So Martin put up those numbers at AA in 2012 while Biddle put those up in A- in 2011. Biddle was considered the number 2 prospect in the system and potential top of the rotation starter. After the season Martin put up, what is he now considered? He has improved on the walks each year. This year it looks like he is starting to put it together. If he can continue to improve next year I think he can be a top of the rotation starter.
None have an arm like the Mets Harvey. Was anybody else impressed as I was with him, still throwing 97 in his last inning. I have seen May, Colvin and Morgan pitch an I would rank them
May
Morgan
Colvin
Yes, Harvey looked terrific, very impressive. Hard to believe the Giants gave him up for a 2 month rental of Beltran. Harvey, Medlen, Strasburg, and ??? Who do the Phillies counter with against the other teams in the division’s young studs?
Giants didn’t give up Harvey, the Mets drafted him #7 in 2010. The Mets got Zach Wheeler (who scarily might be better than Harvey) from the Giants last year.
raygu1 (Burlington, NJ): Ethan Martin had a very solid year in 2012. Is this what we can expect going forward?
Jason Parks: I would expect periods of inconsistency followed by periods of intense awesomeness. I think he has the type of arm strength and arsenal to emerge as a promising late-inning option, and with more arsenal consistency, he can get there soon. But I’d keep developing him in his current to help with command refinement. In the end, I still see a reliever.
Phuture Phillies 
Is it bad to think it’s Watson or Guellar?
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Write in: J.D. Durbin. Kid’s the real deal.
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awesome
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I think overall on upside alone, with nothing given to their ability to reach it, it has to be:
Biddle
May
Martin
Watson
Gueller
Colvin
Morgan
Wright
Pettibone
Obviously this is not an order of their prospect rankings as the risk is really high on many of them.
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Agree with your assessment. I look forward to see how the national pundits rank Brody Colvin this coming year.
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I think it’s Martin, May, Biddle. Of course that is based only on stuff. Given the choice, Biddle would be my pick in a draft at this point because Biddle seems to have a complete package of stuff, control/command, and being a lefty.
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When you take into account that he is lefty I think Biddle’s stuff actually stacks up well with the other two. His fastball is probably a grade worse than May and Martin, but from reports his secondary stuff grades better than the righties. They all have #2 upside but when in doubt tie goes to the lefties
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Who is J>D>Durbin. Never heard of him in any discussions????????Dolphbaby@gmail.com
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OOPS, didn’t mean to leave my E-Mail address.
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see the phillies box score circa 2006 & 2007. It was a joke, although he did take a no hitter into the 7th once.
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So, the question, as I reformulate it, is: who is most likely to become an ace? I think Biddle has to be in the lead right now, but, you know what, I think Adam Morgan might be second.
If you asked who is likely to become a solid top of the rotation starter, I think the answer would still be Biddle, but I might take May or Martin next. The super young guys are too far away from the majors for me to project anything yet.
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I would go with Ethan Martin as he can be dominanting and has better command of his off speed pitches than May.
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I disagree with the first statement, I think Morgan’s ceiling is as a solid to above average #3 starter, not an ace, the pure stuff just isn’t there. I think he is fairly safe to reach at least #4 starter. If forced to put a comp on him I would look at the season Jonathan Niese has put up this year. Really valuable for what he is being paid but not top of the rotation
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It’s a fair point of difference. I used to think that about him, but when I see that he can pump the velocity up to 94-96 on occasion (that’s harder than Biddle throws) and that he throws multiple breaking pitches, my thoughts changed. But to get to his ceiling his command is going to have to improve a lot.
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On upside alone, I gave it to May based on stuff. I think Biddle and Martin are more likely to put it all together, but I think May, from the reports I’ve seen, has the best raw stuff and the most pure upside.
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My opinion exactly. May has the best stuff of the group, hands down. Whether he learns to control his control, that’s another story….
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write in vote for Colvin, since the poll doesn’t factor in probability of occurence. If the question was written as “most likely to pitch in the big leagues for many years independent of upside”, I’d probably put ole Brody at the bottom of the list.
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I don’t really think anybody on this list is anything beyond a #2-#3. I voted Ethan Martin though. When his command is on, he’s filthy.
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Agreed, I think Biddle, May, and Martin (and probably the GCL guys and Colvin but it is hard to get a feel for them) have #2 upside. There is no ace in the system, which is probably fine when you assume that Hamels is a #1 and likely will be for a while, Lee is a borderline #1/#2, and Halladay is a #2, you need to just fill in around that for cheap as the going rate for a #2 is 17-20mil a year (pretty much whatever Grienke gets this offseason) and a #3 is 13-16mil a year.
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Cliff Lee is a #1 and has been since 2008. He’s not as consistent as you would like your ace to be, but he’s among a small handful of starters in baseball who can go on a run where he completely dominates for a month or more. Hamels is great, but he’s never done that and he’s never yet reached the WAR heights Lee has at his peak (including this year, by the way – Lee is still outWARing Hamels by Fangraphs, even though he has not been at his best). Last year, Baseball Reference had Lee leading all of baseball with a 8.8 – if that ain’t an ace, I don’t what is (and he’s lost NOTHING in his stuff between this year and last – things just haven’t gone as planned until recently).
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And, as much as I laud Lee, I am genuinely concerned about Halladay. Right now, he’s a #3, although I think with a winter of rest and planning, he probably will ascend back to at least a #2. Damn – if that guy needs to learn a knuckler to be succesful I wouldn’t put it past him.
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sorry for the digression
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Halladay still has a 4:1 K:BB this year. That’s worse than before but still excellent. He’s giving up more fly balls, but he’s also been hurt by a low strand rate this year which is probably mostly luck. He’s not a top 3 pitcher in baseball anymore but he’s still very good, certainly not a mid rotation starter on most teams.
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My one concern with Lee is the consistency, I evaluate pitchers by the idea that if you have to ask if they are an ace then they are probably not an ace (I have high standards so we might have Lee in the same spot overall but classify him differently). I might miss someone but the aces in baseball off the top of my head are Verlander, Price, Hamels, Weaver, Felix, Kershaw, Strasburg with borderline pitchers being Cain (it just doesn’t feel right), Sale (needs to prove it another year), Lee (just isn’t as consistent as you might want), and Dickey (how do you evaluate a knuckleballer).
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How far has Lincecum fallen?
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He has to be labeled as a #3 under the category there of performs like a #1 occasionally but is just as likely to pitch like a #5
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Baseball Reference has Cole Hamels having a .3 higher WAR. I think Cliff Lee not being at his best really comes down to bad luck.
They’re both Ace level pitchers. Cole’s much more consistent but Cliff Lee is at his best, he is the best lefty in the game. (Nothing against Kershaw… just my opinion).
I still think Cole Hamels has his best years in front of him (ala Cliff Lee). I think he’s got a Cy Young caliber season in him.
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Considering the lack of really high draft pick’s we’ve had lately (thankfully) the fact that there isn’t a true “Ace” in the system isn’t surprising at all. As you mentioned, we have Cole for the next 6 years and Cliff for another 4(?). So, having controllable #2-#3 caliber starters behind them is certainly valuable.
Keep in mind also, that the Phillies have the money to go out and sign a Clayton Kershaw or a Felix Hernandez or a Justin Verlander if they hit the free agent market, so it’s not like they can’t acquire one if need be.
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I don’t think any of them will hit the market. The trend has been to lock these guys up to massive extensions and the only way to obtain one is to trade the farm. Looking back the only aces to hit the market have been Lee and Sabathia (who was definitely an ace before this year when injuries have reduced him to a #2). Both were in small markets and were traded for large hauls before hitting the market and were in a small market (Cleveland) that could not resign them. There is a reason why the Phillies gave Hamels what he wanted.
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Voting purely on upside, I say May Martin Biddle. Ranking them as prospects, I’d guess you put Biddle first, and a very close discussion of May, Martin, and Morgan, with Pettibone Watson and Wright behind them, then Guellar, Colvin, Vargas, Brady, Rodriguez in the next bunch, and guys like Garner, Warner, Manny Martinez, Milner and Manzanillo after that. System’s definitely looking deeper than it has for a few years, even if it lacks a true ace at the top. The first 7 guys I would say look like they should be big league starters, with a strong next 5 “maybes” and Manzanillo as a big sleeper depending on his health. Some will flame out, some will shine, some will be traded three times and wind up leading a rival to a division title.
Man, let’s hope that doesn’t happen again. Missin’ you, Gio.
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I’m thinking it’s Colvin, even though we know his chances of getting there are almost nonexistent. After him it’s probably somebody like Gueller or Watson, but as for the guys on the list I think it’s Ethan Martin. Big fastball, high draft pick, good secondary stuff I think. Even when May and Biddle are pitching well we keep hearing that they’re #2’s or 3’s at best.
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I understand your reasoning, but disagree. We look at Colvin as being a great talent because he was a high profile signing, but Martin and Watson both have pedigrees as good or better than Colvin.
Also, if you are of the mind that Watson has the highest ceiling, why is his ceiling higher than Martin’s? Watson is what Martin was, in 2008.
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I guess I’m taking “highest upside” to mean “best stuff/talent.” So, assuming a guy can improve his control but is less likely to improve their stuff, I’d take Colvin. It just comes down to what I’ve read about each guy and it seems to me that Brody’s stuff is held in the highest regard. And if Watson and Martin’s pure stuff is about equal, I take Watson because he hasn’t gone through the struggles that Martin has with command, using that as sort of a tie-breaker. Maybe he’ll fly through the system- we don’t know because he’s so far away but that’s why most of the “high upside” guys are always in the lower parts of the system.
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The newly drafted guys always seem to have the most upside, it is very rare to gain upside (Biddle did with refinding his velocity and Morgan showed more than he had before), for the most part as players advance and their flaws are shown their upside diminishes. There is a good argument to be made that 2008 Martin has much more upside than 2012 Martin (2008 Martin was the best prep RHP in the draft and had a small chance at #1 upside).
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Voted Biddle, but considered Martin. Martin has the biggest arm, and had the better pedigree when drafted. Took Biddle because he is lefthanded, and has enough ‘stuff’ (as a LH) to be a #2 starter. Ultimately, both Martin and May’s ceiling is lower because they don’t have command, and therefore will either become relievers or at best #3-4 starters.
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“Ultimately, both Martin and May’s ceiling is lower because they don’t have command, and therefore will either become relievers or at best #3-4 starters.”
I see this comment a lot and don’t quite get it. If a pitcher has problems with command how is he better suited for the BP? The only rationale I can think of is shortening up his pitch arsenal and going with this 2 or 3 best pitches. But if a guy is wild BP is last place I want him. At least as a starter they have some innings to find a groove.
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You have part of the argument which is that make the arsenal much smaller and leave them with maybe a fastball and breaking ball. The other part is the reason for the control issues which is usually their mechanics falling apart. In the bullpen you have to repeat your delivery a fewer amount of times and so fatigue and other things like that so the delivery tends to stay together better. Ultimately you can live with a guy walking people in the bullpen more than as a starter because as a starter walks eat up pitch counts which shorten outings which ultimately leads to the bullpen being used more. A walk is just as bad coming from a starter as a reliever, to say otherwise is counter intuitive as the value of the walk does not change based on when it is issued
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To counter that it takes some pitchers an inning or to find their mechanics or release point. I’ve seen box scores where May struggles early on then find a groove later on.
Point is I don’t know if guy with good stuff but bad command is recipe for the pen.
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Given the vagaries of upside, Trevor May blows everyone else out of the water.
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I think Ethan Martin is actually the highest upside guy.
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this is hard, I never seen any of these kids pitch, but based on what I have read, its most likely martin, if he continues without injury.this is interesting. maybe some time this winter, we do a projected 2017 phillies starting eight.Like joseph at catcher, whos on first, whats on second. nevermind forgot where he played. gillies in center, asche or franco at third, cant think who will be left fieldr or right or second basemen, or shortstop.
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I know people will thiink brown will be in the outfield, the more i see the less I
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Kenny Giles. Best arm in the system.
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Going into the season, Biddle was ranked top three pitcher in the system. In his 2011 Lakewood season his BB/9 innings was 4.5, K/9 8.4 with a 1.27 WHIP.
Ethan Martin’s 2012 season combined in AA has a 4.5 BB/9 IP, 8.8 K/9 and a 1.24 WHIP.
So Martin put up those numbers at AA in 2012 while Biddle put those up in A- in 2011. Biddle was considered the number 2 prospect in the system and potential top of the rotation starter. After the season Martin put up, what is he now considered? He has improved on the walks each year. This year it looks like he is starting to put it together. If he can continue to improve next year I think he can be a top of the rotation starter.
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now, that said, Biddle’s 2012 was even better than his 2011 so I would still rank him ahead of Martin but I think Martin is very very close behind.
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None have an arm like the Mets Harvey. Was anybody else impressed as I was with him, still throwing 97 in his last inning. I have seen May, Colvin and Morgan pitch an I would rank them
May
Morgan
Colvin
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Yes, Harvey looked terrific, very impressive. Hard to believe the Giants gave him up for a 2 month rental of Beltran. Harvey, Medlen, Strasburg, and ??? Who do the Phillies counter with against the other teams in the division’s young studs?
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Oh, I confused him with Wheeler also.
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Giants didn’t give up Harvey, the Mets drafted him #7 in 2010. The Mets got Zach Wheeler (who scarily might be better than Harvey) from the Giants last year.
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I was impressed the previous time I saw him pitch against the Phillies. He has a nice easy motion, and the ball explodes out of his hand. He’s nasty.
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That kid is a stud. when he starts to trust his breaking ball. he will be dominating major league hitters.Didn’t they get him from the giants??
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No they got Wheeler from the Giants.
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North Carolina University
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Seventh overall pick in the draft, 2011 I think.
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2010 draft but he didn’t pitch until 2011. Started in A+
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From Jason Park’s Chat today:
raygu1 (Burlington, NJ): Ethan Martin had a very solid year in 2012. Is this what we can expect going forward?
Jason Parks: I would expect periods of inconsistency followed by periods of intense awesomeness. I think he has the type of arm strength and arsenal to emerge as a promising late-inning option, and with more arsenal consistency, he can get there soon. But I’d keep developing him in his current to help with command refinement. In the end, I still see a reliever.
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