General Discussion – Week of 9-10-2012

Weekly Discussion

Phils creeping back into the playoff discussion. Every loss from here on out is a killer, though. They went 8-2 in their last 10. They’d have to go 9-2 in their next 11, and then 9-2 again in their last 11, to get to 87-75, a reasonable guess on where the last wildcard will be. And then also St. Louis has to be no better than .500, and LA no better than 3 over .500 (12-9), and Pittsburgh no better than 5 over .500 (14-9).  And Milwaukee can’t be better than the Phils or maybe can’t even equal them or a tie-breaker goes into place and I am not even looking that up until the last weekend.

Remember that recent year the Eagles snuck into the playoffs on the last weekend because about 4 other things broke their way.  That has to happen like 800 times between now and the end of the year. 

Ok, that’s an overestimate.

254 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 9-10-2012”

  1. Two one game playoffs would be pretty fun to watch as a baseball fan if the Phillies and the Brewers both run the table.

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    1. Actually I think we own the tiebreaker over the Brewers so we’d just play the Cardinals. (I forgot we’d tie them).

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  2. If you project that the teams in front of the Phillies continue to win at the same pace as their current winning %, then the Cardinals finish with 87 W’s. The Phillies would have to finish 19 – 3 to overtake them. I did’t think about such things –I just watched and enjoyed the games. But I have to admit, recently the thought has been sneaking past my more rational side and creeping into my head.

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  3. After this past week I am a lot less concerned about the bullpen than I was before. DeFratus has looked good and Diekman is just nasty when his command is on. Speaking of nasty Aumont is incredible, being able to see what his fastball does at its velocity is incredible. As long as Charlie doesn’t slot people in set roles and plays the match ups I don’t see a need to go out and get a reliever especially with Stutes coming back, Ramirez looking good, and Bonilla and Giles charging up the system.

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    1. When Aumont’s got command of his breaking ball he’s absolutely filthy. I’d love to see him lock down the 8th inning role in front of Papelbon.

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        1. I suspect one guy will be the odd man out for Cloyd who I think will be the long man. I want to find a spot for Horst but his upside is less than the rest so he will likely be in AAA

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          1. Since Horst (and Valdes) can throw strikes at this point I think he has the edge over Diekman. He’s got to learn better control to stick in the majors.

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          2. There’s no place for Cloyd. Either he’ll be traded or he’ll stay in AAA for a year as a taxi squad player. I love the guy, but is stuff is so marginal.

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          1. I think he meant a guy to fill the Chad Durbin role. There’s no way Madson comes back to the franchise after what went down with Boras/Amaro

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        3. If Ruben pulls off a blockbuster trade this off-season, one of the ‘pen kids will more then likely be included in the package.

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          1. Seems more like when. I don’t know if anybody read CSN Phillys Q&A w/ Amaro, it was a typical amaro interview where he wouldnt hint at trade but you could sense it

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          1. Schwimers also probably in the mix, as well as Herndon (though he’s more of a longshot). This system’s all of a sudden produced a ton of big league relievers that have lots of potential.

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            1. It seems sudden but it isn’t. This has been building for almost two years. You could see it coming. What was unexpected was all of the players coming at age all at once (Stutes was a little bit ahead, but then he got hurt) and some players had more upside than we knew (Rosenberg and Diekman are prime examples) I think, for them, there’s comfort in numbers.

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        5. The bullpen above has tremendous potential but I would be shocked if the Phils didn’t spend pretty big on a proven 8th inning guy, or at least add 1-2 high risk, high reward guys to the mix on low guaranteed deals with incentives, i.e., Madson. I think they’d like to setup next year as follows:

          Papelbon
          Veteran, Proven 8th inning guy
          Bastardo
          Aumont
          Diekman
          Lindblom
          Cloyd / Kendrick
          with guys like DeFratus, Stutes, Horst, Valdes, Schwimer, Simon, Bonilla, and others waiting in the wings when injuries occur.

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          1. They will almost certainly sign someone. I hope they don’t go hog wild, however, because there’s already too much talent for the available slots. Some of the young guys have to be included in trades because there are just not enough openings. I think Bastardo and Worley will be traded (assuming Worley can show he has fully recovered).

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  4. I have to agree RAJ could save a bunch of money building the BP out from Papelbon from within. Should be an interesting off season. Anyone else leaning toward giving Gillies a legit chance to start the season as our CF and lead off hitter?

    It would be pretty cool to have Lee, Aumont and Gillies on the opening day roster in 13! of course if you do that you need a significant upgrade in OPS in either LF or 3B from the right side.

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    1. Counting on Gillies next year is borderline impossible given his injury history. Not to mention his general lack of experience.

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    3. If Gillies is going to contribute next year, it will have to be as a result of circumstance combined with his deserving it. They will not rely on him to be a component of the 2013 Phils. If he has a strong 2013 at AAA and stays healthy and professional, he could become part of a plan or the plan in 2014.

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  5. I would bring up Gillies at this point as, at the very least, a defensive replacement in late innings and a pinch runner. The way I see it, any team at this point with Martinez starting at third is coasting with one foot on the accelerator and one on the brake.

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    1. Talent wise yes, but his behavior has been unacceptable. I don’t think the Phillies should reward Gillies with a call up. 1- he needs to at least play 3/4 of a season healthy. And stop the crap, skiing etc…

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      1. Many on here keep referring to Gillies as though he has had numerous behavioral issues. I am aware of TWO. Am I missing something?

        Of those two, one involved him asking the cops for a ride and having drugs planted on him. I vaguely remember some silliness on his part, but nothing indicating a problem child. The other involved him verbally berating a bus driver, something the team felt a suspension was in order. I have heard nothing of violence or a lackadaisical attitude with him. And the Phillies had a player who seemed of a similar composure, but Shane Victorino was a good player, in part due to his feistiness that drove some crazy.

        People can’t stand Nyjer Morgan, but his antics haven’t kept him from having a solid career, and Gillies is no Nyjer Morgan.

        I get the injury concerns, but I see a player who misses significant development time, and yet plays with a fire and passion that says he will not be denied. He’s got some growing to do, but unless I missed something, I think the “behavioral problems” are a tad overblown.

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        1. I would agree with most of this. I don’t think Gillies’ personality will be an issue going forward, he just needs to stay healthy.

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        2. I know a little bit more about tyson with my interactions with the players and I’ve seen him outside of games in bar/party type settings. Dude has a problem.

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          1. Everyone – Jeremy is around the Reading team a lot. When he says something like this, it’s not like the rest of us who sit at home and occasionally go to games. He has some insight into the team. I find this comment to be very unfortunate. Without slandering the man, I hope when you say he has a problem it has more to do with growing up and settling down a little and not something that requires professional help or intervention from a person like Dickie Noles. If it is the latter, you would think this team would be on top of that. Here’s hoping he grows up and handles his problems because, as a player, his talent level is outstanding.

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            1. His talent is truly amazing as is the potential for him. When people see him play they speak of his “intensity” or his “fire”. And while I agree that he is a guy that gives 100% at every single moment I know a little bit more about the dark side of him. The Phillies have done a lot for him to keep him out of trouble and have been amazing in the damage control department. Anyone who thinks drugs were planted on him in FL a couple years ago is truly naive. plain and simple he got off because of technicalities in police proceedure and that is the only reason. I had seen him out at night that year prior to his rehab assignment at some bars in the area. Tyson likes to “party” and when I say that I’m not just talking about partying, I’m talking about a fondness that he seems to have for “skiing”, In fairness I have not seen him out this year, but then again I don’t really go out too much anymore myself. But this year you had the incident with the bus driver… And please I want you to really wrap your head around that for a moment, put yourself in your mind in that bus, what possible reason could there be for attacking a bus driver, in what reality does this even seem possible? It did not come to blows but that’s only because Dusty and other players physically had to pull Tyson back. And I ask the question again why would a sane person not under influence go after a bus driver?

              Sometimes I have to be careful about things I say just because of where they come from. But look there was chatter there were grumblings this year about being afraid of the guy and issues in the clubhouse. There are things that would dare not be spoken in public, there are sentences from this post that I removed before posting, there is a lot more to the story of him than meets the eye, and it’s been made that way by design. Also in fairness I do want to mention that after his suspension, I did not hear of any issues and coincidently his play improved dramatically. I really hope Tyson realizes or has realized where he is at, how close he is and opportunities he has. But the Phillies did not reward his behavior this Sept and for good cause.

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            2. I would assume, since he is a minor leaguer, the Phillies organization has the right to regularly/randomly drug test the player under Dickie Nole’s auspices without the MLBPA approval. If he was recalled in September the MLBPA steps into the picture. Am I wrong in this assumption?

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          2. Perhaps it is his western Canadien personality which may be different then people from around this part of the country.

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            1. That’s not it. I’ve lived out west for almost a year, they are laid back over there. To me, perhaps he has anger management issues.

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  6. The Cards have a real weak schedule to finish up the year… 6 against the Astros, 3 against the Cubs and Padres. Their last two series are against the Nats and Reds, who will probably be resting players for the playoffs. As much as I’d like to think there’s a chance, I’m not sure 87 or even 88 wins will get us there!

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    1. There are so many improbabilities that go into any scenario in which the Phillies stage a comeback, that I’m willing to stipulate that a very flawed Cards team plays down to the level of its mediocre opposition down the stretch.

      The one thing that gives me some hope is that their next 9 games are against the Marlins, Astros and Mets. It’s not a stretch to imagine them running off a bunch of wins in a row against those teams, while the Cardinals and the Dodgers are playing each other for four games. So, say for the sake of argument that the Dodgers take 3 of four from the Cards while the Phillies win those four–that’s a swing of three games in the standings for the Phillies right there. Then, the Dodgers have a tough road the rest of the way out–a lot of games against the Giants, Reds and Nats. Anyway, I’m getting way ahead of myself, but just saying, things could look a whole lot more exciting by next Monday.

      Or, most likely, the Phillies luck will run out and they’ll drop a couple to the Astros and that will be that.

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    1. Really interesting comp, Durazo’s career came to a rather sudden stop for what statistically looks like no good reason. His age 30 year he had a .919 OPS (second year as a starter), hit for crap in 150 AB’s the following year and his career ended, injury? I’m not sure. A career .868 OPS is a great comp for Ruf actually, I hope his defense at 1B though is much better (reports have been good) as Durazo seemed more religated to DH.

      Where the hell did you find that guy?!

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    2. Isn’t Ruf more like, um, Ty Wigginton? Power, slow, poor defensively. Does Ruf get credit because he only plays 2 positions poorly whereas Wiggy plays 3 positions poorly?

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      2. I get the physical similarities but I picked Durazo as my comparison (and wishful upside) because his path to the majors was similarly meteoric. While Wigginton was in double A at 22 and the majors at 24, Durazo came seemingly from no where. He was unaffiliated with a major league team until he was signed at 23 from the Mexican League, then he put up crazy numbers in the minors (404/489/703 in 400 PA) forcing Arizona to call him up.

        Ruf meanwhile was a 20th round pick from a non-baseball powerhouse, and then this year becomes the second player in baseball history to hit 20 home runs in one month (at any level).

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  8. Going to the game tonight. Would like to see Ruf get a ab. Aumont is the perfect example of why you give these guys a look. Sometimes the bigs is just what they need to get their total attention. There is no other reason. Another example Rollins never hit more than .260 in minors. Some guys have the dream to get to the majors. It is hard to have an aliegence to a new team every year. The dream is differen. De Fratus and Aumont are the real deal. Some of those other guys were just fodder. I would love to see Gillies get a shot. I hope sometime next year. He is the most exciting player I have seen this year in the minors. His speed, hustle and will to win is a throwback. He is a pain in the ass but someone like Charlie would love him. Turn him loose and balance the bad times. Kind of like Victorino, high strung could go off at any time. But when he is hot turn him loose.

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    1. Look I’m happy Aumont has been pitching well but we haven’t yet seen the control issues surface and it’s not really a matter of if it is a matter of when. Juan Perez looked great in like a 5 inning sample and then all the control issues popped up and things devolved quickly.

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      1. I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that Phillippe Aumont is going to be a LOT better than Juan Perez.

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      1. Well the source was Ruf himself, he said that by the sounds of things he thought he Wed would be a “go” that was late Monday. now the ground that the Philloes have made up in the past few days have complicated things a bit. By the sounds of it he hopes to play at some point vs the Astros.

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  12. What’s more impressive is Kyle Kendrick pitching like a #2. He’s had 6 straight quality starts, and lowered his ERA a full run to a very respectable 3.83.

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    1. Good thing we didn’t trade him for Kobayashi. CY KENDRICK. I think maybe we shouldn’t be so fast to give his spot up to Pettibone or Cloyd. Best case scenarios for them are probably something akin to Kendrick’s career.

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    2. I’m not totally sure what to make of Kendrick. I think he’s legitimately an alright major league SP. Is he still a number 5 or maybe a good number 4? Don’t know. I think his changeup is better than it’s ever been and most batters haven’t seen this “version” of Kendrick. I think he’s made real improvement but now we have to wait for hitters to make their adjustments. Kyle seems like a new pitcher going through the league for the first time.

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  13. If you have to trade for a CF , how about Denard Span. Pretty even keeled player although his last two years have been down a tad. Playing for the twins will do that to you.

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    2. I like Denard Span, but the Phillies would have to trade a lot to get him. He’s under control for 2 more years.

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        1. Let’s put it this way, if you were the Twins GM, would you take that package for Span? You guys need to stop thinking this is fantasy baseball and you’re trying to fleece your friends. Span is cost controlled and plays good D. Cloyd is a fringe starter and Castro might not even be protected on the 40 man. If I was the Twins GM, the price begins at Ethan Martin and likely more than that. Don’t forget, we got Martin and Lindblom for half a season of Victorino! We’re talking 2 full years of Span.

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    3. Actually looked at some numbers and info on Span and the situation. Looks like the Twins are overloaded at OF, 1B, DH, and C as far as starters go and maybe more, so , it is likely they look for starting pitchers. Now, regardless of whether Philly would trade any of the big 3, Don’t think Minnesota wants to pay all that. So, if you can get Span for a package involving Kendrick, Cloyd, and maybe a prospect pitcher or two, you can start. Since Span has done fairly well and is not paid much, he will draw a big package. I think he only makes 5 million or so. Also, another Left Handed Hitter, so unless there are structural changes in the roster, that at least leaves 4 regulars as Left and that’s , to me , a problem. I don’t think they can make a reasonable trade to get Span, and don’t think he adds that much to the overall situation.

      I figure they got some 40 million to play with in the offseason, depending if they make the correct roster adjustments following the season. So, I figure they can add , at least one Free Agent. Starting to come around on the idea of B. J. Upton. Maybe they can smooth the path by trading for his brother from Arizona, and while they are there they can get Chris Young (the OF) as well. There’s an OF R to L J. Upton, C. Young, B.J. Upton. That would appease the range for Corner OF crowd. I think they can get that package. Maybe they can flip Young and some position and pitching prospects to Cleveland for Shin-Soo Choo. Only 3 LH hitters at those moves , so they might handle that. I also believe they could trade for Carlos Quentin and/or Chase Headley from San Diego. Maybe , if they get one of those RH Power bats, they can also go with my original thought of Corey Hart from Milwaukee.

      So, if they, indeed will have 40 million to play with, no need for a non-power hitting Bats L Throws L CF, that might cost some good pitching prospects.

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      1. Who would we trade for Justin Upton, let alone Chris Young as well? Arizona wants a short stop, we have none of those to trade (Freddy Galvis or Rollins will not get us Upton). I think that whole outfield scenario is implausible and un-attainable. Flipping Young for Choo seems like a sideways move, with the cost of still more prospects I don’t think we have.

        San Diego just extended Quentin, I doubt they are looking to trade him right after giving him a new contract. The asking price for Headley was astronomical at the trade deadline, what makes you think it will go down in the off season? And again, who would we trade to get Headley? Do you really want to give up Biddle, Joseph, etc etc for him?
        Would San Diego even take a package like that?

        Basically the only thing I agree with here is signing B.J. Upton. I think he’d provide us with some power, speed, and a decent glove in the OF. Hopefully his price tag doesn’t skyrocket with all the other teams looking for CF’s.

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        1. I figure Arizona has an OF minus those guys. Young makes 8 million and it rises the year after. Word I have seen has them looking to trade Justin Upton. J. Upton makes around 9 million. That’s about 17 million they could unload. Young is a top defensive player who doesn’t hit for the money. Upton they want to unload for some reason, likely attitudinal, and he hasn’t done as well as the draftniks might imagine. I think they can unload 6 prospects, not including Biddle, Joseph and get that deal. Galvis could be the SS in a package like that, the evaluations of the internet notwithstanding. I say , if they went that route, a representative package like D. Brown , Galvis, T. May, E. Martin, Diekman, and one of the RH relief prospects could get that done. I don’t think those Arizona guys are as highly regarded as the draftniks think. I think if they could pair the Upton brothers together, that might aid in their attitudinal outlook and up their output.
          Flipping C. Young,(OF) for Choo. would work out, I say. I would also include players Cleveland might need in Ruf, a option picked up Wigginton, Mayberry, and L. Nix and N. Schierholtz. That’s 6 for 1, and since 6 for 1 is bad luck and Karma, I will also take back Vinny Rottino. That’s a couple of trades they could make at a negligible real loss.
          Doing those two, there may not be enough for Headlley and/ or Quentin ( who might really be available, regardless of contract manipulations).
          But note , did not say they could make every trade.
          I think they can trade for players who meet a need however, and not trade about half as much in prospects for a player who does not add to the collective effort like Denard Span.

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      3. The Twins once talked about a Storen/Span swap or Clippard/Span swap.

        What they need is pitching (Bullpen and Starting). I’m not sure who I’d be willing to part with given the options on the free agent market.

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  14. What do people here think about B.J. Upton? Right handed power bat, below average OBP but productive for a center fielder. Plus-plus defense, just 28 years old yet. If the price were right (4 years, $47.9 million or less), I’d seriously consider it.

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    1. Average less than 12 million a year.. I figure if another team had Upton they would make the qualifying offer of 13.5 million, so I figure some team would pay that much. I figure 15 million a year , at least. So, if that’s a hard line, I think not.

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    2. I’m not interested in giving BJ Upton a fat contract. The guy has not lived up to the hype of his earlier career. He seems like basically a .750 OPS player. Not bad but not great. Not something I would want to pay for my CF. For comparison Mayberry is like a .733 OPS. Granted Mayberry isn’t as fast or as good at defense but I’d rather try to find him a platoon partner and get maybe .800 OPS out of the spot instead of locking up BJ Upton to a long term deal for that much money. He’s really not worth it when you could pair Mayberry and Nix or Schierholtz and get a lot more offensive production. Defense wouldn’t be as good but it wouldn’t be below average.

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    2. Zero chance that Victorino comes back. There is however at least a reasonable chance that the Phils will go hard after BJ, a right handed speed/power guy with a gold glove. There is also zero chance that Gillies starts in Philly next year. He really needs to play a full season in the minors before they look to him to play in Philly. Talent wise though, he looks like he has what it takes.

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  17. i know its a stretch alan,but dont see much more out there, at least he has speed some power, switch hitter, and decent center fielder.

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    1. It’s a great price for sure, maybe he’ll be hungry after screwing himself this year with what will become a poor contract. Honestly the OF options this year are all flawed, either as a product of price, or skills. I’d pay 25 mil a year if the right player was available but he’s not and 15 mil a year for Upton is pricy. Vic @ 2 for 10 really isn’t bad. If he implodes again what other options are there though?

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  18. I think there is a lesson for the wheeler dealers who would buy a pennant in the Phillies results over the last several seasons. We added Pence at great cost in players and fairly high cost in $. It helped not a whit as a team that was already locked on course for a 100-win season exitted in the first round of playoffs. We added Papelbon in off-season. Helped not a whit. We traded away Pence, Vic, and Blanton for mainly prospects, and suddenly we’re winning. We did not get a championship with the additions of Lee and Halladay. Haven’t even made it to WS with the two of them and Hamels. Did have our WS with a team led by reasonably-young home-grown guys. Let’s give the kids a chance next year, rather than rely on guns-for-hire at the cost of a big piece of the future for next season. There is a reason that Upton has worn out his welcome.

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    1. Teams need a blend of very hungry kids and talented but still hungry veterans. I always remember what Lonnie Smith and Moreland did for the club in 1980. The problem with a mostly veteran club that has won before is you often lose that hunger. I’m sorry but I can’t fault a 102 win club for having a bad couple of games against a very hot club who did win out obviously. The Giants were the hot club in 2010 and won out, no shame on the Phils, the Rangers couldn’t beat them either. The Phils were the hot club in 2008 and won out and they lost in the WS in 2009 with little pitching (Hamels was awful and Pedro was shot). Its been a great run. It will be a very interesting winter to see how RAJ puts the pieces together for next year’s club. While I’m pretty sure this year’s chances are shot, its been a fun stretch watching them play much better ball. They’ve also learned some important things for next year (Kratz and Frandsen can contribute, Dom should be left alone to play, Utley and Howard are not what they were but are still winning players, Halladay and Lee both look fine (whew!), KK looks like a man winning a job, and Aumont and DeFratus are ready).

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    2. There are many problems with this post* (though the FA market next season is a little dodgy, so I’m not THAT sold on spending a ton on Free Agents). But the “play the kids” scenario isn’t on the table for 2013, and shouldn’t be. There is an outside chance – 10% at best – that the Ruf fanboys get their wish and he gets a shot in left – but the alternative to expensive Free agents in center and third base, and most likely in left field as well, consists of make-do options with people currently on the roster or cheap, OLDER players who can be had without committing to multi year contracts.

      That MIGHT be the right strategy long term, but it would probably eliminate any chances the team has to contend next year.

      I’d almost like to see the team try the “play the kids” strategy to maybe finally shut up the “play the kids” contingent around here. But the cost (In terms of a 90 loss season next year and maybe ruining a couple of legitimate prospects) wouldn’t be worth it, and it probably wouldn’t work anyway. The “play the kids” contingent around here probably would just find a way to blame it all on Jimmy Rollins.

      *Not the least of which is the frustrating failure of some people to accept that the post season is ALWAYS a crap shoot. With the exception of Pence, EVERY move the Phillies made over the past few years for an expensive veteran player via trade or free agency worked out very well. If you factor in the high failure rate on the prospects given up on those trades, recent Phillies history is actually a texty book case of why teams in contention do, properly, follow the “buy the expensive veteran” strategy.” The Phillies are now in a slightly different place, but I will guarantee you this: if the front office was crazy enough to adopt the “play the kids” strategy long term, the team would never, ever win anything again.

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  19. With expanded rosters, I’m a little disappointed that the Phillies didn’t have someone prepared to make a spot start. Cloyd is going on short rest on Thursday but I’m disappointed that someone like Pettibone isn’t with the team for this situation. I would think him just traveling with the team and being around those pitchers would help him and he could occasionally do some bullpen sessions and make this spot start. It just seems odd that they weren’t at all prepared for this. Not a big deal necessarily, but you’d like to see them be better prepared.

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    1. I agree with this assesment. I posed the question the other day, although with giving my opinion. We must have a young starter who is on the 40 man or who will need/is worth adding to get this experiance. why not have a sixth starter type around even it is only for a few innings of long relief and now this starting oppurtunity.

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      1. There is no need for another arm in the bullpen, the team is currently carrying 8 relief pitchers. The only pitcher there is any argument for is Pettibone and he didn’t light up AAA (look at the BB and K numbers). Pettibone at this point has been likely shut down for the season and would be risking injury to restart throwing again. There is no reason to not through Cloyd on short rest, he did not throw that many pitches his last outing and will likely be limited again. There just is not a reason to put a pitcher on the 40 man roster to go pitch the 4-5 innings that Cloyd will pitch (giving them experience isn’t really a good argument when this team is only 5 back with the teams in front of it struggling).

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        1. but if Pettibone was up in Philly and throwing regular bullpen sessions, he probably could’ve been alright. I’m not advocating Pettibone start to get experience, but having him with the team and around those other pitchers would be good for him. And is Cloyd better than Pettibone on full rest?

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          1. I actually would go with Cloyd at this point, Pettibone was average 4BB/9IP in AAA to end the year, he just isn’t ready. The being around other pitchers and getting better is overrated by far, maybe in spring training there is some time to work on things but throwing a bullpen session next to Halladay during the season does not make you a better pitcher. I am guessing right now that Pettibone is taking a week or two off to rest before going down to Florida for FIL where they will be giving him plenty of attention regarding that command problem. Right now I want the coaches in Philly worried about working with Aumont, DeFratus, Diekman, Lindblom, Rosenberg, and Horst, the development of the bullpen arms is much more important to the success of the 2013 Phillies than Pettibone right now. If they can solidify the pen that frees up money to address other areas of concern right now.

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    2. Cloyd goes on short rest. It could be either him or Hamels , I prefer it is Cloyd. There was a time when everybody went on what they call short rest. Since most would say Cloyd is a soft tosser, I don’t think it will wreck the arm. No need to start up with a younger pitcher hanging around for long shot possibilities.

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  20. There’s a four team World Baseball Classic qualifier in Germany starting on September 20th. Rosters become official tomorrow. So far, Albert Cartwright is playing for Great Britain, and Tyson Gillies is playing for team Canada. The Czech Republic is involved so I think there’s a good chance Marek Minarik plays as well.

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    1. Not the same level of competition for Gillies as the major but he is getting more ABs and playing time which is good. If I remember correctly it was a good outing in international baseball that got Aumont on the right path two years ago

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    1. Lindblom is quickly falling through the bullpen pecking order. Good and bad Aumont appears tonight and if you need anymore reason to be against bunting and small ball just watch that 8th inning

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      1. Aumont definitely has the stuff to become a dominant late-inning reliever and seems to be promising, but Rosenberg and Lindblom have been pretty bad this season.

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        3. When you watch Aumont pitch, you understand why the Phillies, in a perfect world, wanted to make him into a starter. His command is mediocre at best, but I have yet to see him throw any particular pitch that is not a plus pitch. Seriously, he has a plus fastball, curve, splitter and change. How many pitchers, even bona fide stars, have four plus pitches? The last and only guy I can remember who had that many plus pitches was Pedro Martinez. I am not saying the Phillies should re-convert Aumont, because he wants to stay in the bullpen and it’s unclear whether he has the stamina to be a starting pitcher, but good God, that guy has nasty, nasty stuff and it’s a fun to watch him pitch.

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          2. There’s a reason why he was a high first round pick. But I would be happy if he sticks to the fastball, curve, splitter. He has some serious movement on those pitches. And he has enough wildness to make hitters uncomfortable.

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          3. I remember Pedro back when he was in Montreal. He was mean and nasty. He had excellent control, but he wasn’t afraid to throw at your chin if you showed him up.

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            2. Agreed. In his prime, he was the best pitcher I’ve ever seen and I grew up watching Carlton, Seaver, Gibson (at the end of his career), Jenkins, Clemens and Gooden. Martinez was better, although, in a WS game 7, give me Gibson any day of the week.

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          4. I’m under the impression that he uses his splitter as a changeup, so it’s really the same pitch. Same goes for his sinker/fastball. So that would be 3 plus pitches, which is still really impressive. Especially for a reliever, it’s one more plus pitch than you need to be really really good.

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            1. You may be right on the change/splitter (but I actually think on the sinker, it may be a 2 seam FB, as opposed to the 4 seamer he also throws), the pitches all move so much that it can be difficult to tell precisely what he is throwing. Regardless, it’s all completely nasty.

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            2. Although they tend to do the same thing there is big difference between a splitter and a change up (circle Change grip) Guys that throw hard splitters are asking for arm trouble. Most pitching coaches will tell you the circle change grip is preferred.

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            3. Agreed – we’ve had this discussion on the site before. I think the traditional split grip is a recipe for shoulder problems, which is why, in part, it is no longer a pitch that is taught to most pitchers.

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  25. Did everybody see how Carlos Ruiz loafed it around third on Brown’s single in the first inning? I mean, he should be hustling on every play, all the time. Every player should for the money they are being payed. I mean, yeah he scored without a throw, but he should have been sprinting. They should get rid of this bum now. He’s a cancer in the clubhouse. This guy is just horrible. And he doesn’t even have a cool nickname.

    /sarcasm

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  26. Aumont’s splitter might be one of the best out pitches in the entire league. The thing just bottoms out. It goes from about belt high to the ankles.

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    1. What’s strange was that he didn’t show that pitch until now. I’m wondering if he learned that pitch when he got to the Phillies organization. His grip looks similar to Halladay’s grip on his changeup.

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      1. He’s been throwing it. PP had a write-up in his top 30 prospect article last year which talked about the development of his change.

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    1. The Phillies should not use him in the outfield until(big if) they are eliminated from the playoffs. If you want to use him in a blowout at 1B, LF or pinch hiiting I have no issues.

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  28. WHY in god name would y use rookie like ruf in a wildcard chase. makes no sense unless you have only him left to pitch hit over a pitcher, and never in the field he cant play left,good enough yet

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    1. He’ll be a pinch hitter and a blowout game replacement in LF/1B. I’m sure he doesn’t mind the $2500/day to sit on the bench.

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    2. I think he would have started Monday against the LHP but Charlie gave him the day to adjust. I think he will get starts in LF against LHP, he can’t be defensively worse than Wigginton and Charlie is committed to his defensive replacements late in the game.

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    3. I’m sure he’ll get some shots against left handed pitchers. He can’t be much worse than Wiggington and they keep running HIM out there.

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    4. Not saying you should but Howard is hitting .189 for Sept with 7 hits and 9 total bases. Yeah he might come out of it but Ruf might hit well too.ds. Depends on how many baseball you have,

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  29. This lineup is quite possibly the best lineup they can put out there based on performance and ability. I think we see this the majority of the time as long as they are chasing the wild card. The revenues generated by playoff baseball are way to big to Jeopardize them on a shakey fielding AA LF prospect. Personally i would put Ruff out there and if the Playoffs happen they happen. All i am saying is that i understand why they are making this decision. Plus you owe it to the veterans to make the push, and you are going to learn alot about your future BP arms in these high leverage situations and hopefully a lot about Brown over the next 20+ games.

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    1. If Ruf could play 3rd people might have a legit gripe. But he’s limited basically to 1B and maybe LF but his D could be shaky. Martinez is really the only guy getting trotted out there that doesn’t deserve time but it’s out of necessity since Frandsen seems to be hurt and Wigginton blows at 3rd.

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        1. I think Orr could play it as good defensively but his bat might be worse than Martinez. With the expanded bench the 3B hole is a smaller than normal because there is the flexibility to PH when necessary

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  31. anonynous you realize that fransen blew two games with errors, in the ninth with two outs,to cost us two valuable games.

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    1. What seemed impossible at the beginning of the week is now realistic. I’d peg their odds at 15% to get the WC at this point and it looks like its the brewers who are the real threat. None of the top 3 teams even looks remotely deserving at this point.

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      1. I would remind you that the brewers face an absolutely brutal stretch of games for the rest of their schedule. I would be absolutely shocked if they get to 85 wins. To me the more concerning team talent wise is the dodgers, who currently are playing like crap. They have the skills to really go on an extended run… We’ll see but the phillies are definately in position to make a run at the post-season. Nothing more we could ask for as fans after this year. It’s pretty incredible.

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      2. Yes, fascinating. I don’t think anyone would want to undo the Pence and Victorino trades, but if you are in Milwaukee, Zach Greinke would look awful good in the Brewers uniform right around now. Who knew?

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  33. Just checked the phil’s prospect page which I don’t do much (too much BS)
    Ruf is listed # 20 must be a hell of a farm system

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  34. Howard was again underwhelming. Which way do they go? Which way do they go?
    If they can go 6fer6 .win 2 against Atlanta thenW a lot depends on the Washington team attitude

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    1. Howard this year has been really concerning. I’m not sure what other options the phillies have though. Pray he turns it around? If he’s hitting .225 next year at the end of June, I wouldn’t be suprised to see him benched for an extended stretch with Ruf playing 1B. Hopefully light a fire under his a$$. Howard has a ton of talent, always has, but he just seems to be falling apart at the wheels. I hate baseball contracts, there is no way to back out of them.

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      1. Lighting a fire under his butt is not a necessary or sufficient condition for a return to what Phillies fans expect from Howard. I’m not sure the following will give much comfort to Phillies’ fans, but:

        (1) Howard’s 2006 was, pretty clearly, above his real level of ability – call it luck, catching lightning in a bottle, whatever, in retrospect that one season, coming so early in his career, created unreasonable expectations for him. In hindsight, his low contact percentage even then should have tempered people’s expectations. Howard just has never been the rare type of player who can combine prodigious HR skills with a low K rate.

        (2) Supra, as best as I can recall you’re not one of the people around here who don’t understand normal aging curves, but in Howard’s case most of the failure to accept his career path is related to failure to understand aging curves. This is particularly the case with Howard, who arrived late (for a star) and was already close to his decline phase upon arrival. To put it more clearly, Howard’s decline, before this year, can be explained mostly by a normal aging curve – and the rest by assuming that 2006 did not represent a “normal” year for him. That’s without even taking into account the fact that players similar to Howard have often suffered a steeper decline phase than is the norm.

        (3) The injury. People underestimate the extent to which that particular injury can have very serious negative effects even upon “recovery.” This is the only area for hope – he may recover further. On the other hand, he may never regain his pre-injury level of play, even taking into account the normal aging curve. Philadelphia basketball fans have a pretty good example of this in recent years.

        (4) The fact that offense has declined league wide has made his apparent decline even a little larger than his real decline.

        Putting it all together – if Howard really is as bad going forward as he has looked this year – this probably does become the worst contract in baseball history. He has significant negative value right now – not simply because he is now a below replacement player, but he is a below replacement player who is going to keep playing. All of this, except the injury (and of course the risk serious injury is always a factor that should be taken into account), was known or could have been predicted when the contract was signed. Which is why some of us were so horrified at the deal. But this is not an instance where being proven right gives me much comfort.

        Ah, for the days when (in the comments section on this web site) the Phillies’ modest improvement in the first 2 weeks after Howard’s return was credited primarily to him. At least no one is trying to give him any credit for the more recent team success. But to get back to my main point, I’m sure Howard is working his butt off to be the best he can be. There’s just so much you can do to fight the ravages of time and injury.

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        1. I agree with all of your points but one (and mostly in a joking manner). It is a Top 5 terrible contract in baseball but just so people feel just a tiny bit better about it (this is 2013 onward):
          Howard: 4yrs – 105 million (included the 10mil buyout for 2017)
          Alex Rodriguez – 5 yrs – 114 million
          Mark Texeria – 4yrs – 90million (and you think Howard as declined)
          Werth – 5yrs – 98 million
          or just think we could be paying Carl Crawford 20 million a year for the next five years.

          I think there has been a lot of issue with the injury, especially I think with his conditioning (he did not get his normal offseason). If they were completely out of it he would be getting plenty of days off but Charlie is stuck to his veterans and Howard still has the ability to hit one out occasionally. Personally I think he has about 2 years more of performance that will look like his 2011 season (~.250/.340/.480) which is productive even if he is grossly overpaid. If you look at the advance stats the only thing that is really different is that his BB% has dropped back to 2010 level and his SO% is way up (it has been down in September with the BB numbers appearing to be steady), his BABIP is .310 this season but for his career it is .323 in a 8 season sample size.

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          1. I’m hopeful, and even mildly optimistic, about a rebound to 2011 type numbers, but saying his decline is “only” a result of the BB decline and the k increase … I mean, if they are “real,” he is toast.

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          2. As bad as it is, I don’t think Howard’s deal even makes the top-10. The Mets are paying Bobby Bonilla (yes, the guy who retired in 2001) $1.2 million per season for the next 25 years as part of a deferred payment deal they made with him.

            I also would put the deals for Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown, Barry Zito ahead of the Howard deal. Also won’t be surprised that in the end, the deal the Angels gave Albert Pujols turns out to be a disaster.

            As for Howard, he won’t approach the numbers he put up early in his career but I think his numbers in 2012 season are more a result of the time missed due to injury and expect a bit of a rebound in 2013.

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  35. Not saying Charlie would do it, but Howard is scuffling right now and Ruf hit almost .400 against left handers with 19 HRs in 148 ABs. His fielding is probably as good as Howard’s if not better. I would rest Howard and start Ruf against a left-hander at some point. The next lefty starter they are scheduled to face is on Sunday (Dallas Keuchel). He has a bad record and is exactly the type of pitcher that the Phillies often seem to struggle against.

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    1. I’m not against this at all. Howard is playing like a AAAA player right now. He’s hit into more double plays the last two games then I can stand.

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    1. That is poetic justice – he would deserve that recognition. Kendrick’s development of a plus change-up (it is definitely a plus pitch – no two ways about it) has made him an entirely different pitcher. Over the last month or so, Kendrick has been a much better pitcher than Roy Halladay, who has lost 3-4 MPH on his FB and Cutter from last year and is struggling to find out what pitcher he is going to become moving forward (he may not even know that until next year, when he has had a full winter to heal and determine whether any of the old velocity is going to return). I wouldn’t bet against Halladay, but, as we sit here today, the dominant Hallday of 2010 and 2011 just doesn’t exist right now. He’s gone from being an ace to a number 3 and, frankly, it’s a little sad to watch.

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      1. The velocity drop has to be injury related, it’s just to significant of a change, age related velocity drops would be gradual, like .5 to 2 mph per year over several years. Now, given his age, the recovery prognosis is 50/50 at best. It’s a big off season for Halladay, I’m very curious what we’ll see in spring training. As to Kendrick, I’m really having a hard time believing my eyes, I watched his last start twice and it’s amazing that he developed such a sick change-up at such a late age.

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        1. I’m not so sure velocity drops have to be that gradual. What about Lincecum? His drop seems to have happened pretty quick and without injury that I can tell. Didn’t Brett Myers throw really hard when he first came up? I think he lost significant velocity too but I don’t remember him getting hurt.

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          1. You could be right, I just figured since aging is gradual so would a velocity drop because of it. That’d be a good topic to do a scienctific study on it. If there were some statistically significant data to be able to say “when a velocity drop of >3mph occurs there is a 90% certainty it is injury related”… obviously it’d be really hard to do something like that but it would be useful for teams to know when evaluating their players.

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  37. Jim Callis Chat-12 Sep12: —Gerry (Philly): What kind of ceiling does Roman Quinn have? Is he a legit prospect with All Star/game changer potential?……Jim Callis: Sure, that’s his ultimate ceiling. More realistically, his future ceiling is as a solid regular. He’s one of the quickest guys this side of Billy Hamilton, though Quinn will have to make more consistent contact as he moves up.

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    1. Some questions/comments I have:
      – What happened to Braden Shull?
      – I thought Bonilla should be back by now and it surprises me he isn’t getting work in
      – It is awesome that all their top international guys are there
      – How much does Pullin at 2B improve his value?
      – No Colvin is also surprising but they might be letting him get his head on straight before spring

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    2. One of the one or two days a year, it is good to look at Larry Shenk’s blog.

      From the list: I see the 3 platoon system if they want it.
      6 Catchers though, good to have some extra.
      Josh Ludy 22, Gabriel Lino 19, *Logan Moore 20, #Chace Numata 20, Jose Mayorga 20, Deivy Grullon, 16
      The Infielders: I see the more veteran players (*Serritella 22, #Carmona 21, Perkins 21, and Harold Martinez, 21) alternating at 1B and then they have 3 platoons with the 2B, SS, 3B:
      (from Williamsport) *Mitch Walding 18,# Roman Quinn 18, Tyler Greene 18
      (from GCL) Zach Green 18, #Angelo Mora 19, Andrew Pullin 18
      (from Latin America) Deiber Olivera, 20, Willerker Isava, 16, William Cuicas 17
      The Outielders- 3 platoons if they want:
      *Larry Greene 18, Carlos Tocci 17, *Dylan Cozens 18
      *Zachary Taylor 21, Gustavo Martinez 18, Steven Golden 17
      Freddy Zorilla 17/ Jose Pujols 16, Olvy Marte 18, Samuel Hiciano 18

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  40. I don’t entirely buy the following myself, but I thought I’d throw it out there …

    The first part is just data – no room for disagreement here. The main reason for the improvement is improved pitching . Secondly, comparing the Phillies pre and post all star break, their improvement has two components: they are more “efficient” in the sense that, prior to the all star break, they had fewer wins than one could predict from their runs scored and runs allowed, whereas post all star break they have more wins than could be predicted by their runs scored and runs allowed. Hitting really doesn’t enter into it; scoring is actually a tad lower post ASB.

    Here’s the controversial part – the second of these is almost certainly the luck. The first … may be also. The Phillies FIP and xFIP are pretty much the same pre and post ASB. They were, arguably, somewhat unlucky pre-ASB and somewhat lucky post ASB. You could argue that the fielding got better post ASB, but for a number of reasons I don’t really buy that. So it leave luck – some bad luck pre-ASB, some good luck post ASB.

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    1. Defense. Lonnie Pense is gone . Vic was having the worse contract year in history. etc
      PS new keyboard Larry?

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    2. It is some amount of regression to the mean for the pitching which was really unlucky in the first half of the season (and has been lucky since). The defense has gotten better or stayed the same at every position but catcher (Kratz is worse than Ruiz), with big boosts at 2B (Utley over anyone but Galvis), 3B (Martinez/Frandsen are better than anyone there earlier), and LF/RF (Brown-Pence is likely a push but Brown might actually be plus in left and Schierholtz is definitely better in right than Pence was).

      The biggest thing is the bullpen, especially lately, the bullpen is the one area that can skew the link between statistics and win/loss as they can cause a large quantity of close losses, I think the current bullpen is a little lucky but it has better arms and is being managed better (someone had to sit down with Charlie about to better use Papelbon).

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      1. I think that’s mostly pretty reasonable – yet probably crystallizes for me a belief that a lot of it is luck. The changes on D are small potatoes (especially since Galvis had a ton of the innings at 2B prior to Utley’s return, and the fact that Mayberry in CF is worse than Vic, even this year), and, while I buy the point about relief pitching, likely it can’t explain more than a game or two on balance.

        I find this counter intuitive – and surprising – myself.

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  42. Dammit, I don’t want to hear anymore talk about Cloyd being as good as Kendrick. Cloyd was nibbling all over the place and then had to serve up a cripple pitch middle in.

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    1. agree completely. he’s pitching against the worst team in baseball, is staked to a 4-0 lead and can’t make it out of the fourth inning.

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      1. I know Pettibone had a little problem with walks, but I still think he gave the Phillies a better chance at 5 to 6 solid major league innings than Cloyd does. As predicted, Cloyd simply does not have enough velocity or movement to perform well unless his command is almost perfect, which is nearly impossible to do. Pettibone throws in the low to mid 90s and has much more margin for error. He’s not a finished product but I think he would be a lot better than Cloyd at this point.

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        1. That having been said, I cannot understand why, after the homer, they didn’t let Cloyd pitch to the next batter and at least give him the opportunity to settle down. Asking a bullpen that is already taxed and does not have a bona fide long reliever to absorb five or six relief innings in a playoff atmosphere game is a lot to ask. If Cloyd had pitched 5 innings, this would have been a much easier game for the bullpen.

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        2. First of all, if Pettibone was up, he wouldn’t be stretched out as a starter. He would have been in the bullpen, throwing like a long man. So if Pettibone pitched, he would be going 3 innings max.

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          1. yeah, but my point is that Pettibone should have been getting some of the starts that Cloyd got. But, in any event, even if Cloyd did get those starts, Pettibone easily could have been in the bullpen to provide another two to three innings before the team got to the pure relief pitchers.

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    2. Let’s give Cloyd the out , that he pitched on “short rest” and didn’t have the pinpoint control. Without the pinpoint control he is the worst possible.

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      1. I’m not giving Cloyd the out here. He’s not much better than what he showed yesterday. With his stuff, he’ll always be liable to give up home runs.

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        1. Agreed. Cloyd’s velocity isn’t middling or marginal – it’s downright well below average. The slowest for a non-knucklball righty that I’ve seen all year. He has to throw a lot of good breaking pitches with perfect command to have any chance of success.

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          1. Pretty sure that Cloyd is at his most, by far, innings pitched for his career. Would have been helpful I think in June. Just seems a bit spent to me. Even his last couple of starts in Lehigh were a bit off.

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  43. btw, remember when utley used to hit lefthanders? not anymore. he’s had several opportunities to break this game open.

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      1. utley’s OPS against lefties this year was .650 after the game, so it sure as heck wasn’t 1.023 before it. if you’re going to be insulting and sarcastic, try getting your facts right at least.

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  44. Sorry, but Diekman’s not ready for the MLB. He’s got good stuff and potential to be a good bullpen guy, but he’s still got a ways to go.

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  45. why does charlie let aumont stay in as long as he did,when y ou can see,he is struggling,just a real bad manager, always was and always will be.diekman and rosenberg have big arms, but just arent ready to get out major league hitters. why not use defraus in place of aumont with two outs and one on to get the next hitter.

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    2. Must have missed the part of the game where Rosenberg went 2 innings and didn’t allow anything. When they have all these younger pitchers in the bullpen they have to find out what they can do. Aumont claimed he was all right to pitch again after frequent usage lately. What’s he supposed to tell him he’s not. When they see he’s off some, they can’t just change on the dime. Diekman is capable of getting hitters out (both left and right handed hitters) it appears he is not able to throw enough strikes as yet. Should have brought DeFratus in- 20/20 hindsight.

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      1. marfis….there you go…you read my thoughts…why not JDF! ‘Diekman is capable of getting hitters out (both left and right handed hitters) … check out the splits for Jake D., rh vs lh.

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        1. Okay, I see 51 AB’s as the thing in the MLB. minor leagues- either they don’t have it or don’t know how to find it. Let’s just put that into the small sample dispensation. I figure the Big Left Hander that throws hard sidearm and has a ball that moves would be capable of getting either Left or Right Handed Hitters out- so how about- Give him a chance-coach him up- give him more training- or something like that.

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  48. I have heard Cholly say guys have to play hurt because they get paid a lot of money. Why then is the p30f4q 51 million dollar man sitting on his arsch while Rome burns.

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  49. Any gasthous will do but the one in Krover has a theme of “leck mich um arsche” jfor about 500 years

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  51. BA released their minor league All-Star lists:

    Overall:
    2nd Team 1B – Darin Ruf
    2nd Team SP – Adam Morgan
    AA:
    DH – Darin Ruf
    A+:
    SP – Adam Morgan
    Short Season:
    SS – Roman Quinn

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  52. marfis rosenberg is 6.14 era over his last ten appearance. one outing doesnt make him ready.I Think he has good stuff, but no location. needs to learn how to work guys/ thats what i meant/

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  53. I’m going to say what some others have and have been ridiculed for. But there are zero holes in this argument. Howard should be benched and Ruf should start bs left handed pitching. I understand while there is still hope for the playoffs not wanting to play him in left, and until the Phillies feel that they are out if it they should not. But if winning is the goal there is no logical reason not play Ruf over Howard at first vs. lefties. Howard is ridiculously bad vs left handed pitching he looks totally lost. Ruf mashed left handed pitching to the tune of nearly .400 this year. Even with a MLB translation drop off I would submit that it is almost statistically impossible that Ruf would be worse than Howard at the plate vs lefties. Defensively Ruf is better than Howard. So if it’s about “winning” there is no reason for Ruf not to start every game at first when a LHP is starting. Both offensively and defensively this argument is sound. They need to see what Ruf can do vs MLB pitching and they can do that right now. The LF experiment like I said I get, not til they are out of it. Besides he will have winter ball and ST to work on that and be evaluated. But when I to comes to hitting he should be getting these AB’s now at first vs LH’s. There is no valid reason not to.

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    2. The argument works on a pure numbers level. The problem is that baseball can not simply be summed up in numbers. Benching a known commodity for a unknown guy especially when the incumbent is a “face of the franchise” type player is the kind of thing that jobs can be lost over. There is a whole lot behind the scenes regarding “chemistry” and other things that go into the manager’s job. The biggest example of this is the continued play of Michael Young in Texas, he is absolutely horrendous but receives playing time because he is a leader on the team.

      Here is an interesting article about the manager’s job and why just doing things because the numbers say it might work doesn’t always make sense. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18302

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    3. I’m not the guy to make the negative case – though I don’t think it’s quite so straight forward, see, e.g., Matt below – but let’s assume for a moment that you are correct in the sense that, from the perspective of maximizing wins this year, the team would be better off with that approach.

      I still categorically reject the mistaken premises that there is ANY value AT ALL (in terms of evaluating Ruf going forward) in “see[ing] what Ruf can do vs MLB pitching.” We’re talking now an even smaller sample size – maybe 25 PA. There’s NOTHING we can learn from that that we don’t already know. Nothing.

      I also don’t see the “need” to find out whether he can hit major league pitching.* They need to find out if he can be an adequate major league left fielder. If not, he’s blocked, at least in Philadelphia.** If so, he may get a shot at a regular job – and then we’ll know, after about 1000 PA, how well he can hit major league pitching.

      *Obviously there is ALWAYS some question about how well minor league numbers translate to the major leagues. It’s NEVER possible to answer that question without hundreds of major league plate appearances. If the whole package – hitting and fielding – looks likely to be major league caliber, a kid gets a chance and eventually we see how well the bat translates. In Ruf’s case, my best guess is that the answer is “pretty well, but not nearly as well as his biggest fans hope.” That’s a guess, though an informed one. But the point is, NOTHING he can do in 25 or 100 or even 300 PA will prove or disprove that estimate.

      **It’s possible that Howard is cooked. Given his contract and history in Philadelphia, he will be given AT LEAST a full season, probably more, to prove that wrong.

      **

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      1. I would add that … how should I put this? Major league teams are not open about their evaluation process, nor should they be. Trying to figure our how teams make such decisions can be tough. I think that there is reason to believe that major league teams are sometimes overly influenced by small sample sizes. HOWEVER there is plenty of circumstantial evidence that suggests that major league front offices, in general, have a good understanding of sample sizes, and that personnel decisions regarding minor league players and major league players with limited experience are driven more by minor league performance and scouting than by SSS major league performances.

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    4. My post again has a lot less to do with evaluating Ruf on hitting (and especially left fielding) than it does “winning”. While it is no secret that i am one of the Ruf Ryders. My argument is you want to get into the playoffs? You put the best line up out there that you can for every game. For some time now Howard is not the best man you can put in the line up vs LHP. Someone said that my argument is number based. Baseball is number based is my response. There is no way that Ruf would lose over .200 pts batting average from AA to MLB and it would have to be more than 200 pts too match Howard’s atrociousness. Now the argument shifts to things like intangibles, chemistry etc… That is a point that has no argument, so I won’t even bother. But in regards to chemistry I will say this: this team was dead in the water, it was not the return of Utley or Howard, that caused them to go on thier run. I would argue that it was the infusion of the young guys from LV that caused the spark, because when they started hitting well and when the young arms started doing better out of the BP, this team became successful again. Youth and energy go hand and hand. And as you see young guys coming out fighting for jobs for a chance in the future, I would say that this has to have an effect on veterans if not only the reason of potential competition, just being around that has to elevate the level of everyone’s play.

      So I say again that the Phillies should put themselves in the best position to win every remaining game if they truly want to get in the playoffs. And radical desperate times call for radical desperate measures. We’ve tried it the old way and where did that get us by the end of July? Youth is the future of this team and the future is now.

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      1. Are we sure the Phillies won’t do this? They haven’t faced a left-handed starter since Ruf was called up. This post is just complaining for complaining’s sake.

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          1. The circumstances regarding that are slightly different as Charlie had decided that he wanted to give Ruf a day to get used to life at the big league level, at the time I am guessing that Charlie thought there would be opportunity to play Ruf but with the three wins and the Cardinals three losses things changed and did not allow him to play Ruf

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          2. You are right. I also thought it was fairly common knowledge that Charlie had stated he (Ruf) wouldn’t play that day to to getting “settled in” so it didn’t need to be repeated. I apologize for assuming.

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            1. I predict that Ruf sitting around for almost a week now will not make him in any way shape or form better. And I further predict, that no matter what Charlie says, he will give Ruf his first at bat with two outs in a ninth inning with the game on the line and a tough right handed pitcher on the mound. Just watch.

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            2. He may not be getting playing team but he isn’t exactly missing any playing time either with the AA season over. He is getting better because they are likely giving him good instruction on his OF route running and he is getting another set of eyes on his swing. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got his first AB in a pressure situation he is the 2nd RH bat off the bench right now and if there is a lefty up there and PH opportunity Charlie will likely use him.

              No point in making off-base predictions just to get people annoyed, it just isn’t productive.

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  54. Realizing that many of these have been posted over time I thought I would consolidate all of the Phillies minor leaguers on WBC qualifier teams.
    Canada:
    Chris Kossick
    Jay Johnson
    Tyson Gillies
    Czech Republic:
    Marek Minarik
    Germany:
    Aaron Altherr
    Great Britain:
    Albert Cartwright

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  56. What I really and truly don’t understand is this whole “Darin Ruf can’t play defense” bit, I’ve seen this all through out the year, people saying he sucks in left and others saying he could barely play first base. Even his supporters don’t seem to understand his defensive abilities (ie someone in an earlier comment on this thread stated that Ruf played near fold glove caliber first base in college) I seriously doubt anyone on this site has seen Darin Ruf play more than I have, but that doesn’t matter what does is results:

    1) Ruf in college was not a “near gold glove caliber first baseman”

    – Darin Ruf won two Rawlings gold glove awards (2007 and 2009), He is the ONLY player in NCAA history to win two gold glove awards at the division 1 level at any position.
    – He is 3rd in NCAA history In career put outs (38 shy of the record)

    2) Ruf has only been adequate at first base in his time with the Phillies is also false

    – Darin Ruf in 4 seasons holds a .992 fielding percentage at over the course of 4 seasons in the Phillies orginization at first.

    3) the conclusion that he would “suck” in the OF is not supported by facts
    – in 29 games in LF this season Darin Ruf committed no errors
    – he had 3 OF assists during those 29 games
    – in his minor league carrer he has committed 2 erros in LF and holds a .970 fielding percentage, 5 assists and one DP
    – his range factor per game in LF is 1.64
    For some perspective on this Pat Burell’s is 1.59, Hunter Pence last year was 1.57, Ty Wiggington his carrer in OF is 1.33. Dom Brown is 1.35 in LF, Nate Schierholtz 1.59, Mayberry’s is 1.57

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    1. I only disagree with the defensive numbers because of small sample size. The sample size for defense is a season or more so the metrics aren’t great. I don’t doubt his ability to play balls he gets to but how many does he get to which subjectively his range is not great. When it comes to the college 1B defense I wonder what the competition was like since few college 1B make the majors

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    2. Ok Jeremy, you sold me, Darin Ruf is a good or better then most gold glovers at first base and his range factor is better then a lean herd of bisons in a thunderstorm. However, his only challenge now is to overcome the perception–correct or incorrect as it may be— that is proceeding him.

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    3. Really question your objectivity here. This is some pretty bad analysis.

      Every detailed report of a person who has seen him has suggested to me MASSIVE problems with his outfield defense. This is confirmed by video clips I have seen – clips choosen by supporters to “prove” that he was adequate or better!

      Here’s the thing: the error rate and assists are okay. Not great, roughly average. The former is the LEAST important factor in good outfield defense. If he was a right fielder, the arm (again, adequate, not great) would be a bigger factor. he isn’t.

      Which leaves us with range, far and away the most important factor for a left fielder, swamping everything else. Everyone who has looked at the issue knows that “range factor” is not a helpful way to look at range. To many outside influences, ball park factors, the nature of the pitching staff (K rate annd ground ball versus fly ball rate), the range of other players on the team, overall team defense, and so on. Not helpful at all. Of course for Ruf in LF, also a huge sample size issue. Comparisons such as yours are worse than useless. Absent advanced metrics (not available for minor league players), the only way to get a take on range is observation. Everyone who I have read who have made detailed observations – and this includes plenty of his biggest fans – has said that he (a) is inherently limited severely in range because of his limited speed and athleticism, and (b) is FURTHER limited at this point by poor ability to read where the ball is going and run routes. Both of these observations are not only univeresally made by observers, but they make sense – his athleticism IS limited, no one denies that. And it would be shocking if he was much good at the technical aspects of outfield play given his limited play there. Of course he could improve on the latter, but that’s the other problem – at his age, the clock is ticking. Another year in the minors and he is 27. OTOH, the thought of on the job learning in the Philadelphia outfield is … frightening.

      The bottom line is that he has very much the look of a player who RIGHT NOW would be 15 to 20 runs worse than average in left field, and who could, at best, be a 5 to 10 run below average left fielder. Right now he is Chone Figgins in left – average error rate, average arm, way below average range. In Figgins’ case, 22 runs below average per 150 games (this year’s performance). There’s a couple other guys with a similar profile, some of them pretty good players. Heck, Manny Ramirez was a guy with an average arm, average error rate, lousy range who cost his team 20 runs per year as a fielder. But his hitting made up for it. Do I think Ruf will hit enough to make up for that? No. He could, but I absolutely would not for a minute take a chance on that. If winter ball transforms him into a better fielder, maybe I’ll re-evaluate.

      I have no opinion about his first base defense, except I put zero weight on his college gold gloves, and question the judgment of anyone who does so.

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      1. How can you question my objectivity?

        This is how the season has broke down for Ruf on this board…

        “he’s organizational filler at best he can hit for average but cant’ hit for power”
        – then he goes on a homerun streak
        “it can’t last”
        – it does
        “he’s only got fringe power, he’s playing in Reading’s hitter friendly ballpark”
        – videos show he is crushing the ball to all fields
        “it won’t translate to MLB, at best he will be a bench bat, besides he can’t play any position”
        – he’s shown to have great defense at first, and isn’t doing poorly at a transition to LF”
        “the scouting reports say x and y about him and I’m following the experts”
        – even though they are 3rd hand reports and when this same expert analysis goes against someone on here whom Ruf Naysayers feel is worthy, well then they made a mistake
        “well we can’t play him now we’re in a playoff hunt”
        – facts show that situationally he would most likely be an improvment over other players
        “he’ll mess with the chemistry of the team”
        Etc…

        So who’s being objective and who is grasping at straws for new reasons to be a naysayer at every turn?

        My evaluation of Darin Ruf is measured by only one thing, and that would be… Darin Ruf, specifically his performance. Offensively and defensively he has yet to be proved wrong in the game and in the box score, once he is I wil tip my hat to you and move on. But until then my analysis is based on my observation of him yes, but also his performance numbers that are measured in these we call stats. You have no stats to back up your claims, so who is being objective and who isn’t?

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        1. No one with an ounce of credibility has said that his outfield defense is anything better than “if he improves a lot, he may be adequate.” That’s what his (rational) fans claim. His hitting is another matter – though even there, his fans are IMO more than a little over optimistic – but anyone who claims his defense is other than terrible currently has zero credibility.

          I sincerely hope that the Phillies trade him for a bag of baseballs so we no longer have to hear you and a couple of other delusional know nothings vomit their opinions all over the comment section.

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          2. I haven’t heard anybody say anything concrete about his OF defense either way, even though we can probably assume he’ll never be above average there. The scout that said “he might be Matt Holliday” in the Jayson Stark article said he liked his defense in left better than first. So we don’t know.

            We know the Phillies liked him enough to call him up. They never did that with Rizzotti. The only thing that makes sense is to wait and see. No reason to expect him to solve the problem in LF for next year, but no reason to trade him for “a bag of baseballs” either.

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            3. I don’t think anyone is arguing against his 1B defense except that college Gold Gloves like major league Gold Gloves may be overrated. We are pointing out his LF defense is likely horrendous

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          4. What proof is there that his defense is terrible? You don’t want to take my word for it even though I’ve seen him play in 50 games or so this year… Fine. But there are no stats that indicated his defense is terrible, if anything they show the opposite.

            Darin Ruf will not be an MLB superstar, I am not saying that. What I am saying and thinking is that he will be the starter in LF at some point next year. He will be average to slightly above average on the whole. Which is better than what we got right now. Hard stats, observation and even the Phillies aggressive tone of calling him up and prior converting him to LF everyday. These points are all hard facts and prove my side. You on the other hand use hyperbole, name calling, and the words of “experts” that usually have an expertise in being wrong. The bigger you dig and the more you harden your position on this issue the more you could end up looking like a fool. None of your arguments have any credible basis, this is why they change frequently. Grasping at straws as your credibility runs down the drain. That is might foolish indeed.

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            1. Just on pure athleticism alone there is no way he will ever be above average and average looks like a stretch. That being said a ton of teams play a below average defensive LF; Kubel, Dunn (during interleague), Carlos Lee, Holiday, Delmon Young, Mark Trumbo, Josh Willingham, Michael Morse, and many others. This points to the fact that he can probably play LF at the major league level, that doesn’t mean he still won’t be terrible. I don’t think anyone is saying that he won’t try hard and eventually with reps be fundamentally sound but he just does not physically have the tools to be a good OF, most scouts seem to quote his speed as a 20 tool though if you were generous you might give it a 30, he won’t get to a ton of balls and will cost the team a lot of runs out there and his bat will have to compensate to make him even an average major leaguer.

              I know there seems to be a distain of prospect “experts” but these guys don’t rise up without merit and they often know what they are talking about but more than that they are really good at talking to a bunch of scouts of have seen these players and synthesizing that information on to the public (both to put it in a more readable form and to protect the scouts who are normally under team restrictions on giving out information). If you need anymore evidence that these guys know what they are doing, Kevin Goldstein was just hired to be the Director of Professional Scouting for the Houston Astros, and say what you will about their onfield product, that team has done a huge turnaround as an organization since they cleared house a year ago.

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            2. Wow. I think a lot of people are getting lost in the words and numbers. Offensively all you have to do is watch the guy bat. His strength, stance, short swing, patience and willingness to hit to all fields is more imprortant to me than his stats and people’s projections. The kid can and will hit.
              Defensively at first, college gold glove doesn’t mean ML gold glove, but it absolutely and most certainy does mean “better than average” … at least.

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  58. I saw some comments from Ruben/Charlie lately and they’ve been talking about adding a big time run producer to the middle of the line up this off season.

    I’m assuming they’re talking about an outfielder, which to me, would lead me to believe they’re targeting:

    Josh Hamilton
    Nick Swisher
    Justin Upton

    in any order. I don’t think we have the pieces to get Upton (Arizona wants a long term shortstop and/or third baseman).

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    1. Just looking at those names I really don’t want Swisher on anything more than a one year deal, I just think he is on the decline. Hamilton I would offer like 3yrs 25-30mil per but would not go beyond 3 years. As for Upton I think that package starts with Biddle, May, Joseph, and Asche then likely one more guy in the 10-15 range, doable but I don’t think it is worth blowing up the farm for.

      They will likely make a run at Ross (I think Boston locks him up) and Upton. I also wouldn’t mind Melky if his price bottoms out on maybe a 1yr 10-12 million deal.

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      1. Melky’s situation apparently will get murkier in time with the attempted cover-up. He may be out more then the 50 games already imposed.

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        1. Gosh I hope so. 50 games is just a vacation for those guys. In track and field I think the minimum is 2 years that would make them think twice.

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      2. Josh Hamilton could command $18/20M per annum. Last I heard, agent Moye is looking for something around the ballpark to Prince Fielder’s annual pay-out. The years are what may be the hang up for most teams.

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        1. I was trying to make the point I would rather offer him a higher per year salary to take less years. He is up there in years and you have no clue what the effects on his body have been during his problem years.

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  59. I am not big on stats, as you know, go more on what i see in players. That being said a couple of things that i would like to comment on, one is suprise by last nights comment by wheels, about ruf batting practice swings, how he hit balls they couldnt believe how far they went, i know it batting practice, but maybe he can be a big league asset with his bat, not his glove right now,even though he is older, second i really believe if the phillies count on brown as the answer in right field, they may be wrong. even sarge said what i have seen, this kid is late on fastballs, just watch him when guys throw over ninety, fouls them off to his right sign he is late, sarge said he must get around quicker, not a good sign, teams will really go after him if he doesnt improve.

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    1. That is interesting, I have been watching Brown closely both at games and on TV and I haven’t seen this, I actually think his bat is quite quick when he turns on a pitch he is looking for and it is a bit loopy when he is taking defensive swings. I have seen more defensive swings that look like he was sitting on something else and he fouled off the fastball. That being said I haven’t been watching specifically for his swings at good velocity but I will be.

      It is nice to know Ruf’s raw power will play but I want to see him actually do it a few times against live pitching before saying he can or cannot do anything.

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      1. To me, his swing is still a work in progress and a bit slow. His 2 latest HRs came on lower velocity pitches. The big key for me was his last AB when the pitcher has just throwing gas and everybody knew it, and he was still unable to catch up to it. You tell Rollins or Howard a fastball is coming, and the pitcher can’t throw it hard enough to get it by them.

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  61. For all of you Ruf supporters out there, the man you should be upset at for blocking Ruf is Wigginton and Charlie’s blind devotion to him. Wigginton Post-All Star game (small sample size) 75 PA .185/.286/.308. That is the guy truly blocking Ruf right now, not Howard

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    1. agree. i’d rather see ruf or pierre in the outfield, because wigginton gives you absolutely nothing against lefties. take tonight’s game: he comes up with the bases loaded and makes a out, and then gets a double with nobody on later. how about delivering a hit when it actually means something?

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    2. I don’t think Charlie is gonna play Ruf in LF as long as there is a chance we make the post season. I don’t think he trusts him to play an adequate defense in left.

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        1. Ruf has played a total of 39 games in LF in the minors. That’s his entire professional experience as a leftfielder.

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            1. Wiggington has also played a lot of 2b and 3rd (admittedly not very well), whereas Ruf has only been a 1B. The reports of his defense in LF haven’t been great. I’d like to see Ruf play too but chances are he’s a pretty awful LF.

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    3. Wigginton’s had a more recent stretch of hot hitting, where he was 6 for 17 with 4 walks. That was from the end of August to Sept 9, so I think that plays into why he’s been getting ABs lately. If he cools off again though, it could open the door for Ruf at least as a PH.

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      1. All that points out is how bad the rest of his ABs have been to be under the
        “M” line the second half not bring up his stellar defense. This is why Cholly should only manage stars.

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