Box Score Recap 9-3-2012

Box Score Recap

Justin Friend’s ERA comes in at 0.23. What a year. Reading clinched a playoff spot. Playoffs start Wednesday in Baseballtown. Good stuff.

In Lakewood, Kelly Dugan went 3 for 3, raising his BA to .300.  Listen, I don’t value BA all that much, especially as a predictive tool, but if you think that’s not a good thing for that guy’s confidence, I don’t know what to tell ya. So good for him, and really, a good year all around for him.  Mostly healthy and generally raking. Nothing wrong with that.

LV Cancelled REA  LKW  WIL

67 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 9-3-2012”

  1. Perkins and Serritella…two collegiates who did well in their first year of pro-ball, now keep up the good work.

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    1. You know, Perkins and Serritella sorta slipped under my radar since there were so many other prospects to follow. I wonder where Perkins plays out defensively – he’s been at a few different positions. Both had solid seasons – if they develop more power next year at Clearwater (assuming they get jumped), then they should both be legit

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        1. If Perkins can legitimately play RF I think he’s a better prospect than Serritella. He didn’t hit for much power but not being limited to 1B is big.

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        2. The funny thing with Perkins is he comes out of college as a third baseman, and that’s the least likely spot I’d expect him to end up. Gotta give the guy credit for learning two new positions this year and still putting up some offensive numbers, and he’s more than adequate at either first or in right field. I was surprised how smooth he looked playing right field, especially in a rather expansive ballpark as Bowman Field is. I still worry about his long swing, and I wonder if it’ll catch up him as he starts to see faster pitching. He’s really got a long load in his swing and moves his hands back about a foot to get into a hitting position. I talked to a scout early in the year who thought he’d have to change it to be successful even at this level, but he’s really hit the ball well, especially the last month.

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  2. I’m positiviely giddy about Roman Quinn at this point. Possibly my #2 prospect. No doubt about it top fiver.

    Where does Adam Morgan start next year? I guess it depends on his Spring performance, but LHV and then the Phillies by the end of the year is certainly not unreasonable.

    Oh yeah, and I hear that a couple of scientists have been hired to theorize about the existence of Justin Friend’s ERA – that’s how small it is

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    1. Agreed. The sky is the limit for Roman Quinn and that’s saying a lot for me because I am generally not particularly enamored of players who best tool is speed, but with Quinn there seems to be a lot more than that. Within a year or so, he could easily be a top 100 prospect in milb, perhaps even a top 50 prospect. He’s probably got another 3 years ahead of him in the minors by I am very excited to see him play.

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      1. I’m right there with you guys. I’ve posted a few times over the past couple weeks about enamored I am with his ability to get on base so consistently. He doesn’t have much, or any, raw power, but his 80 speed tool will turn singles into doubles – doubles into triples. His defense seems to be settling, I haven’t seen too many errors from him in the past month and a half, as opposed to prior. The kid is posting a .257/.350/.414 line against righties as a left-handed batter, despite the fact that HE’S NEVER BATTED LEFTY BEFORE IN HIS LIFE. I really can’t emphasize that enough. The progress he’s shown given the amount he’s had to learn is just stunning. Keep it up kid.

        On a side note, Gillies is really impressing me. Gets on base, has solid gap power, has really good range in CF, and the arm is solid. Let’s just hope all the off-the-field stuff is behind him..

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        1. Hopefully Gillies can get back to swiping bags next year. I assume the reason he wasn’t aggressive this season is because of his hamstring.

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        2. Patrick, you make a great point about him hitting left-handed. If he can finish with an average at .260 left-handed for the year, I think the Phillies brass are going to be absolutely ecstatic about that, because, like you said, it’s his first year hitting left-handed. Andy Tracy and I talked about Roman for a few minutes following Saturday’s game when he hit the home run, and I said there’s probably a good shot that he never is a 15-home run guy. Andy Tracy looked me sqaure in the eye and said, “Why not?” He said there’s no reason he might not be able to hit 15 a year playing in Citizen’s Bank Park. If he’s playing in San Francisco, maybe not, but he could playing 81 games a year in Philly.

          There’s also plenty of room for Roman to put some weight on. If you look at guys like Larry Greene and Mitch Walding, as 19-year olds, they look like men. Roman still looks like a kid who snuck into the Cutters equipment room and stole a uniform. He’s still got room to grow and add some weight.

          I said at the beginning of the year that of the three of Quinn, Greene Jr. and Walding that I thought Walding was the most polished, Greene had the biggest chance to be a game-changer and Quinn had the highest ceiling. I’ll stick to that, but I think Roman has quickly emerged as the best prospect on this team. I’m not quite ready to call him a top-5 prospect, but he has to be a top-10. And yes, despite 27 errors, he’ll stick at shortstop, no doubt in my mind about it.

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      2. If the scouts were convinced that he’ll stick at SS than I think he would land in the top 100 this year. 400+ OBP in the 2nd half in his first year as a pro is exceptional, especally since he has ++ speed.

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  3. Nice of Ruf and Achee to finally show up with some hits.
    for september
    Ruf hitting .154/.214/.154 0 HR 1 RBI
    Aschee hitting .182/.357/.273 0 HR 2 RBI

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  5. Justin De Fratus returned to the majors with a scoreless inning yesterday. He only has 5 IP so far, he’ll end the season retaining his prospect eligibility. De Fratus is hard to rank, but he performed well in AAA and obviously still ranks among our best relief prospects.

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  6. Ben Badler had some comments in BA’s hot sheet chat on Friday about Ruf and Tocci.

    He says Ruf has a 20 run tool, but trying LF is worth a shot.

    He gave Tocci a rave review in terms of hitting ability, instincts and defense. He also didn’t rule out future power, but said there is disagreement among scouts on it.

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    1. I think the Tocci power disagreement comes from some projecting his body and assuming that he will add muscle and some looking at his body and deeming it too thin through the shoulders. The implication being that being thin through the shoulders will never develop the type of build to add a lot of power. Either way it is entirely guesswork since he is so young and no one really knows what he will look like for a few more years.

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  7. I have been a fan of de fraus. watching him yesterday, he was at 92-93 he must still be getting back arm strength,I believe he is a harder thrower than that. wip was ripping swimmer,on his reaction to being demoted, and attitude, do you think he is done in the phillies organization.

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    1. If we’re leaving everything to WIP, the franchise would be in constant chaos. From what Schwimer and the organization have now said in public, i.e. the fact he was excused from reporting to AAA to get a second opinion, and his statement that he is not planning to file a grievance, I think the whole thing will blow over or possible already has or was blown out of proportion to begin with. Assuming we’re not all being played, his pitching should still dictate his standing with the org. Comparing it to the other young bullpen arms, he’s been ok, not great, but he has more big league experience than DeF and Aumont, so that might give him a leg up next season. We shall see.

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    1. Yeah, this is his age 20 year – which is highly impressive. They were looking for another Travis d’Arnaud and I think they got the closest thing to d’Arnaud imaginable. That trade and the Victorino trade were really good. And, astoundingly, the Jim Thome trade could, in the long term, produce the most value of all. What a heist!

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  9. Question for the board. When talking about prospect tools in general, power always seems to be at or very near the top of the discussion, regardless of position. Why is power seemingly so important when projecting guys like Tocci, Gillies and Quinn when it’s clearly not the tool that going to carry them through a major league career?

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    1. When we are discussing power with regards to Tocci, Gillies, Quinn, and others like that it isn’t huge power that is being looked for. The question is that you need more than the ability to hit singles and run, their needs to be the ability to drive the ball and whether than manifests in 10-15HR power or a bunch of doubles it is a secondary skill that is needed to make them starting caliber players. It comes up for much the same reason that walk rates do, you need the ability to generate extra bases and steals are nice, but ultimately an extra base hit has more ability to create runs than a single and a stolen base. In summary we are hoping they develop 40 power or something like that not huge raw power.

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    2. So, a lot of time people confuse “Power” with “Home runs” and they are related, but not 100% the same. Power, in general, is important because a guy needs to be able to hit more than singles. When people get concerned about Tocci, Gillies and Quinn’s power they aren’t concerned he won’t hit 20 home runs. They are concerned that they are too weak to effectively hit major league pitching at all. That they will just roll over grounders or hit weak popups. When a guy is figured out as a no power guys (unless he’s 80 hit ala Mauer of a few years ago) they just pitch right at him. They intentionally walk the guys in front of him. He is a detriment to the line up.

      So, once again, “Power” does not necessarily mean “home runs” (Though it can). like someone with 50 power will hit 15-20 home runs, but it ALSO says that he should hit 30+ doubles and some deep fly balls.

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    3. 307 batters in the majors have 200+ plate appearances. 50 of them have an Isolated Slugging Percentage of less than 100, so 1/6th of them. Of those 50, only 21 have OBPs better than league average, only 4 of them have OBPs better than .350, and three of them are largely bench players. Elvis Andrus is largely the only star player in baseball right now who doesn’t hit for power.

      As JoeDE points out, the competition at the MLB level is so good that pitchers can overpower most hitters who are nominally good but lack sufficient power. Defense and scouting plays a major role as well, as teams can shift against speedy players, play up on the infield and negate their greatest strengths. A batter at least needs to show he can pop a ball into the gap to keep the defense honest.

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        1. Guessing MiniMart has less than the required AB.s

          Otherwise, he would be at the top (or bottom) of the batting avg listing..

          Last gm he was in- his BA (ML) was somewhere in the mid .120’s

          I know – but believe. It

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  10. So the rotation’s been put up for the Reading/Trenton series. Hyatt, May, Martin and then Morgan. I guess if it goes 5 games, Hyatt will get the start. There’s no way they trot Colvin out there in a game 5 playoff series.

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    1. Pretty good rotation they’ve got going out there. Let’s hope for the “good” versions of May and Martin.

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    2. I think Colvin goes. There’s no rest day, and I doubt most organizations run a pitcher out on short rest for a minor league playoff series.

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    3. Game 5 is all hands on deck, you start Colvin with a short leash but there is no way they would bring a prospect back on short rest.

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        1. I’m reserving judgement on that until he transitions to relief and succeeds or fails. And hey, maybe Colvin would rise to the occasion and put together a solid start. The experience probably wouldn’t hurt him.

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        2. He isn’t a very good prospect, but he still has some future as a possible reliever. I meant it in the sense that the only guy you would bring back on short rest is some AAA journeymen in the twilight of their career.

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          1. Sure, but if his ceiling is middle reliever (and if it is, why wasn’t he relieving this season after he burned out in Allentown?), that’s absolutely a guy you have throw on short rest in the playoffs. If he blows out his elbow, what have you lost? A guy whose value you can pick up on the scrap heap of free agency for nothing.

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            1. If he’s not good enough to be a prospect, then how is he good enough to start on short rest? I mean, we’re not talking Bob Gibson here. Just from my experience watching minor league playoff baseball, teams will usually start a lesser guy rather than throw anyone on short rest. The minor league playoff is not that important in the grand scheme of things.

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  11. Has anyone looked at what Domingo Santana has done this season? Completely fills the stat sheet every night. 2 years young for his league and is top 5-10 in all major categories. He may be the biggest regret we have in the last 5 years. I understand you have to give up some top prospects to get guys. That is why you give up Cosart and Singleton, but you cannot allow him to be a PTBNL. There is no excuse there. He very well could be our #1 or 2 prospect this year if he was here. Disgrace!

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    1. Some things with Santana, yes he made the deal go from bad to horrible, but he is putting up these numbers in one of the biggest launching pads in baseball. His full season BABIP is .397 which is horribly unsustainable, his strikeout rate is 28%. So while it is a nice season for him, I would still put him behind Biddle, Franco (who obliterated Santana’s LKW numbers at a year older but at a more premium position), Quinn, and likely May with an argument for Asche as well.

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      1. Actually, Santana’s numbers in Lakewood last year were about the same as Franco’s numbers this year, and Franco did them at one year older. If you look at Santana’s numbers after the trade last year too, Santana’s numbers are quite a bit better than Franco’s. Again, at one year younger.

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      2. Holy BABIP. And on a 16% LD Rate compared to around 20% last year. That’s pretty lucky. If he’d hit 20% LD, wow.

        Really solid improvement overall if you ask me, and while some is BABIP driven, compared to prior years, that’s not much of a shift. But he is always a BABIP guy, partly I guess due to those line drive rates fueling smaller samples of BAP due to how many Ks and BBs he puts up, (and HR this year). So I tried to figure it – looks like he put 29% of his BAP on a line this year, compared to 33% last year, (If I did the math right, and we trust the stats on First Inning, both of which are questionable). Not much of a drop off there, but enough to make the LD rate overall come down some.

        Now, he did have a 136 OPS+ (36% better than the average I guess is how you put that into words), so he was clearly outperforming the league, at only 19/20 all year. .234 ISO is pretty wild, though it can partly be attributed to his home park (1.11 park factor for runs in 2008-2010, which is the latest I have, and very high compared to a neutral of 1.00).

        And just a note – he walked over 10%. So that’s better than 2011, but not as good as his very disciplined but very K-ish 2010 season. So sad he’s gone.

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    2. Shame! Shame! Shame!

      But yeah, I echo Matt’s comments below. Santana had a nice year, but not the crazy one his numbers might suggest. If you put him back in the Phillies system, I think he’d still be below Biddle, Franco, May, the catchers, and probably a few others.

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      1. Doesn’t really matter what league he’s in if you’re comparing him to other players in the league. Every other guy ahead of him in OPS on the Cal league leaderboard is at least 2 years older than he is.

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      1. I’m reserving judgment until we see how Tommy Joseph turns out. One fairly productive year of Pence, when the team was starving for offense, plus Joseph and Rosin for the four guys we gave up. We have no idea if that was a good trade or not yet, and I can’t see calling it a disgrace at this point.

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  12. So many of the phillies players involved in bunch of those trades in past few years didn’t pan out at all. Yes there will eventually be a player who pops…but overall I think the phillies did good job of not trading away as many impact players as most of us felt at the time.

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  13. Cody Asche praised a Nicholas Sparks film on Twitter and Jon Pettibone thinks Matchbox 20 is an under-appreciated band. Not a good day for Phillies prospects.

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  14. We are going to Trenton to see playoff game. Who is better Pitcher to see: Ethan Martin (friday night) or Adam Morgan (sunday night)

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