2011 Draft Pick signing deadline is Monday, August 15th

We are closing in, and I wanted to quickly put this out here, as I’ve gotten a few emails on the subject. The signing deadline is on Monday, August 15th at midnight. We should know a few hours before, like we have in past years, what the Phillies plan to do. So far, we know that they have a meeting set with Ryan Garvey tomorrow, at least based on the articles I’ve seen. Pre-signing deadline workouts are very common, and I’ve been told another group of guys will be coming to Philadelphia this weekend to work out. This normally involves a round of batting practice for the position guys, and maybe a light bullpen for pitching prospects. After which, the team will negotiate with the guys involved and try to see if there is common ground. Check below for more

As it stands now, the Phillies have signed 24 of their picks, spending about $1.7M in total. You can posit that they will spend around $3M more, which includes locking up their first 2 picks. They could spend more, I guess they could spend less too, but I imagine it will be somewhere around $3M. I figured my last bit of speculation will be to give you my gut opinion on the odds of the rest of the guys signing. This is not based on some kind of inside information, its just my assumptions. I have a few people I could ask for information, but I’d rather not bother them with this, and we’ll all know soon enough. I’ll break the groups down in terms of the % chance that I think they sign

99% certain: Larry Greene Jr (1S)
95% certain: Roman Quinn (2)
65% certain: Mitchell Walding (5)
50% certain: Ryan Garvey (15), Brandon Pletsch (34), Jesen Dygestile-Therrien (17), Braden Shull (27)
20% certain: Jake Overbey (10), Riley Moore (21), Brett Maggard (38)
10% certain: Brendon Hayden (36)
5% certain: Tim Ponto (39), Everyone else not mentioned (too long to list them all out)
0% certain: Zach Wright (6)

Anything can happen. For instance, if Roman Quinn doesn’t want to sign for $750K, maybe they offer $750K to Riley Moore, who has a rock solid college commitment. I believe there is a strong chance they could land everyone in the 50% certain and up group.

Greene – $850K
Quinn – $750K
Walding – $500K
Garvey – $450K
Pletsch – $350K
JDT – $200K
Shull – $300K

That would be $3.4M total, added to the $1.3M we’ve spent, and you have $4.7M. More than last year, a significant commitment, but not an outrageous outlay, and zero $1M+ bonuses in the draft, something that would appeal to their risk based strategy.

I figure there will be at least one article this weekend, probably from Jim Salisbury, with some interesting tidbits. If I hear anything else before the deadline that I can actually write here, I will be sure to share it.

121 thoughts on “2011 Draft Pick signing deadline is Monday, August 15th

  1. If they sign everyone in your 50% and over group, along with everything done so far, this will have been a phenomenal draft.

  2. Nay word that the Phillies will spend more to replenish the system since trading away so many high upside guys? It is the only way I see the trade impacts being minimized.

  3. Ah. And one question. If they sign Walding, after getting Ty Greene and Black, would they still put $350K insto Pletsch? If they don’t would it bump up the possibilities for signing Tomasetti?

  4. I’m curious why L.Greene hasn’t been signed (or at least announced), unless he is going over slot and the team wants to wait. Especially since it sounds like he has pretty much announced it via social media It would be nice for him to get some ABs in, similar to Tyler Greene

    – Jeff

    1. I honestly have no idea what the delay on Greene and Quinn is. The only thing I can think of, with Greene, is they are trying to turn it in to a 2 sport bonus and spread it out over 5 years, and that may be causing some delay, but that seems unlikely.

      Its definitely odd that both guys were viewed as slot picks, maybe very slight “reaches” at their respective spots, yet both are still unsigned.

      1. This is pure speculation but I’m getting the sense that Larry Greene may think he has more leverage than he actually has. So the Phillies are playing chicken with him and he’s going to blink.

        1. Normally a signing bonus is paid in one lump sum. If a player is a two sport guy (and it has to be legit for the Commish to approve it) then the team can divide the bonus up over 5 installments. So for Greene, who had a potential football scholarship, if he is asking for more money, the Phillies might be trying to split it up. So if the Phillies offered him, say, $850K, and he wants $1.3M, the Phillies might agree to give him a bigger bonus, but spread it out over 5 years, thus, his 2011 payment would only be like $250K. The Red Sox have done this with a bunch of prospects, notably Casey Kelly a few years ago. Again, total speculation. From Day 1, Greene seemed adamant that he was signing and ready to play. I wonder if his father or someone else started putting other thoughts in his head.

          1. Thanks James. I figured it was something like that, but I was unaware that something like that even existed.

            1. From my understanding, unless a team/player specifically structure it differently, its a lump sum payment made when they sign, and then they sign a minor league contract.

              Some players receive a smaller bonus and sign a major league contract. Some players also have money in an escrow should they decide to go to college.

              For the most part though, I believe the signing bonuses are paid out up front in a lump sum unless its a 2 sport deal.

      2. and greene only has a commitment to a junior college, so that delay is really hard for me to figure out.

  5. If we get everybody in the 50% and above groups, I’d be thrilled. I would be happy to substitute another catcher or another arm in place of Pletsch, but either way, that would make for a nice haul.

    Of all the guys remaining, Garvey is probably highest on my want list after the first two picks, and even there, it’s close. A polished, power bat from the right side would fit a lot of needs in the system — I essentially see him as a righthanded replacement for Singleton.

    Adding one of the catchers would be nice. I’m not holding out hope on Riley Moore, but even Tomassetti or Kyle Olsen would be nice.

    The past few years, the Phils have had singings seemingly come out of nowhere. Musser and Pointer last year didn’t seem to have a lot of buzz before signing, nor did Cosart. It would be nice to see another surprise type signing this year.

    1. I agree fully except I also want Shull. Those are the 5 ive been following with Garvey and Shull the 2 I want the most.

  6. I can’t wait to see the signees get some AB’s & innings logged. When is it too late to get anyone to Williamsport, etc or is it safe to say Arizona will be the earliest if not more realistically Spring Training?

  7. GCL will be done at the end of August and Williamsport wraps up before labor day. Probably not enough time to get any of our last minute signees some ABs or IP.

  8. I think Pointer played one game last year, and Walter had 2 IP or something like that.

    Possible, but I think Instructional League is the first time these guys will get reps.

  9. $450k seems like a lot for Garvey… I’ve read he has a polished bat, but can’t imagine he’d cost more than T Greene who brings power and speed to the table. That being said, if the Phillies’ have the money under their budget, than why not spend it!

    1. I agree. That seems to be an excessive bonus for a not highly ranked HS corner OF. Frankly I don’t see the excitement for Garvey over some of the other guys, other than his name is recognizable. I’d much rather add whatever money being offered to Garvey to the offers being made to Walding, Riley Moore, Tomassetti or Schull.

      1. He throws exceptionally well having been a pitcher, has played in advanced summer ball with the likes of Bryce Harper and has great bat speed. He looks to be pretty polished for an 18 year old.

        1. Just spent the summer umpiring Ryan in a summer college league and he is legit. Should have been drafted much higher.

  10. I’d love to get Moore, but if we get all the 50+% guys I’ll be very happy with this draft. Frankly, if we trade major prospects every year, our draft spending should reflect that.

    1. Exactly. No one should understand the trade value of talented prospects as well as the Phillies. One would think the draft budget would be adjusted accordingly.

    2. Nail on the head. If our minor leagues are simply a feeder system for the smaller market teams in order to pry away their star players – we need Red Sox style spending on the draft on a yearly basis. A half dozen top-round quality players, since 4 -5 of them are going to be shipped out.

  11. Why is everybody so high on Riley Moore? He had a horrible senior year and played less than 10 games this summer being average. Is Boras his agent?

    1. I think the love for Moore is because he has the potential to be a good defensive catcher with power. Unless I missed somebody, the leading catchers in HR this year are Napoli and McCann with 18 each…so we may or may not have a 25-HR catcher this year. So if they think Moore can be a 20-HR guy at catcher, that’s big potential.

      1. You just also describe Rupp— good defensive catcher with power. Though Rupp’s power was more at UT then in the professional ranks so far.

    2. I’d imagine a large part of it is the ridiculously over-the-top scouting report that PP references.

    3. Because most of us are not scouts, all we can go on is the opinions of BA and PG.

      Final BA pre draft rankings:

      Roman Quinn: #73
      Larry Greene : #75
      Tyler Greene : #83
      Colton Murray: #111
      Cody Asche : #116
      Adam Morgan:#136
      Riley Moore : #150

      Now I realize that BA rankings don’t mean anything to the teams, but if you’re a fan these rankings give a guy like me a baseline to assess the talent drafted. By this, you could make the argument that Riley Moore was the 7th best player the team drafted. I believe PG was even higher on him. Add on that he is a catcher. That is the reason his name is mentioned on wish lists.

  12. Garvey seems to be a wild card to me. Bringing him in first, if that’s accurate and not that he’s the only one being reported, leads me to believe he could be a big swing bonus-wise. Like they really want him but only at the right price and thy think he will balk at their number and go to USC. And if he does, (there’d be worse thing to be than Steve Garvey’s sports star son in LA), then they can really shoot for a couple others. Any history of this kind of timing, or could it just be respect for the elder. Obviously it could be scheduling and meaningless.

  13. Larry Greene posted on facebook to Roman Quinn that he was going to Florida the 18th for the phillies. Don’t worry about either of them.

  14. PP,

    It appears you never listed Tyler Greene’s signing bonus of $375K in your draft list. Based on the draft bonuses I saw published, the Phillies have spent $1.655M so far on 7 players. Add in other other signees so far and I am guessing the total spend so far is between $1.8M to $1.95M.

    That does not include Larry Greene, Roman Quinn, or any of the other potential targets.

  15. According to walding’s Facebook page from yesterday, he wrote “off to Philly”
    What does that mean??

      1. Not so much a tryout at this point—more of a ‘meet and greet’ and finalizing and wrapping up the monetray aspects of the business at hand–their first professional contract.

  16. Always curious when I see mlb prospects flying to the big clubs city for a meet and greet type thing. Who pays for the trip? If the MLB team does, how does that not affect eligibility? In NCAA football I think buying a player a pretzel is a 1 game suspension at this point.

  17. “Leaving monday im so ready to do what i love. Being doing it for 14 years now its my job who wouldve thought this was my future!!” -Larry Greene on Facebook

      1. Not at all.

        However, any speckle of information about these prospects is welcomed to my curious mind.

  18. any news on ponto? he could be one of those late round bloomers. 6’7 and still learning how to pitch. sounds promising

  19. word is that ponto is most likely going to college. im from around his area. hes getting alot of money to go to saint joes. phillies should try and get this kid though. hes huge and hes going to fill out. might reach 95-96 in a couple years.

  20. What a good time for the Phils to wow these kids. It is Alumni weekend. So these kids can meet and greet with some of the Phillies greats of the past. They can watch Kruker go into the Wall of Fame on Friday and watch the Alumni Home Run Derby on Sunday. Sign them all!!

  21. Do you get the feeling that Alumni Week and Draft Signing deadline was scheduling accordingly? πŸ˜‰

      1. Garvey’s kid who I read refers to Lasorda as his second grandfather or something like that. He’ll be super impressed by Tommy Greene.

  22. Is this kinda like old NFL free agency or college recruiting – where if you let them get out of town and fly home without signing its a lost cause? Deadline is midnight Monday but I’m thinking if we don’t hear anything on guys not named Quinn and Greene by end of Sunday, that’s not good news. Of course, the Phillies PR staff has essentially ignore the process since the first week of June so they may have deals and we’d never know it.

    1. Maybe someone can tell me—-but other then JD Drew back in the late 90’s, who was the last Phillies top pick that went unsigned? And unfortuantely for the Phillies, Scott Boras was just in the early stages of flexing his ‘agent’s muscles’ and solidifying a name for himself..

  23. Everybody seems to think L.G. is signed, but not so according to Todd Zoliecki(sp?) on MLB.comm. His FB page says he’s going to Florida on Monday but isn’t that where Chippola JC is at?

    1. Being doing it for 14 years now its my job who wouldve thought this was my future!!” -Larry Greene on Facebook.

      He said job. Not school.

      1. When i went to college my father said my “job” was to get good grades. Could be going to college is all im saying.

  24. Have not seen this on site anywhere else, so, the latest Wolever interview on http://www.philly.com states that it is expected that L. Greene and Quinn sign, but he seems to imply there is a possibility they do not, and suggests that if they do not, some of that money could go to later round guys.

    1. And reading between the lines on that Woelver interview, I’d guess they only have a shot at Garvey if someone else falls through. He didn’t say that exactly, but that’s how I read it.

    1. I’m certainly no expert, but it’s unclear to me how such a statement from Wolever improves the Phils’ negotiating position.

      1. Maybe if Garvey really wants to skip college, he’ll see this interview and be slightly more inclined to think the team was ready to walk away. Maybe. Or it could remind Greene and/or Quinn that there’s a big name out there who might take their money if they don’t like the number. Maybe. Or whatever. Right?

  25. A while back, I wrote that Greene had a lot of leverage because if they don’t sign him, the Phillies lose the pick without compensation. I was told that was wrong. Someone should tell Zolecki. He says they lose the pick without compensation if Greene doesn’t sign.

    1. Phillies have only lost two first picks in 46 years—Adamson in the first draft in ’65 and JD Drew in ’97. He will get signed.

    2. I think Zolecki is wrong.

      If you fail to sign your own draft pick, you get a compensation pick the following year. If you fail to sign that player, you get nothing.

      This compensation pick came from the loss of a free agent, and I’m pretty sure I read elsewhere that those picks are protected.

      1. Teams can also earn compensation for unsigned picks from the previous year’s draft. If a team doesn’t sign a first or second round pick, they will get to pick at the same slot plus one the following year. For example, if the team with the #5 pick does not sign that player, they would have the #6 pick the following year. The regular draft order would continue around those picks. For compensation for not signing a third round pick, teams would get a pick in a supplemental round between the third and fourth rounds.****** If a team fails to sign a player with one of these compensated picks, there is no compensation the following year.***** Baseball America Today Prospects-Ask-BA.

        1. But I think you are misinterpreting the wording.

          The Phillies didn’t receive pick 37 for not signing one of their own draft picks. They gained the pick when Washington signed Werth. The Phillies haven’t drafted someone, not signed then, and then gotten a compensation pick. I think this is different.

      2. You’re correct. Greene wasn’t a compensation pick as a result of not signing a pick in 2010. The Phillies would get a compensation pick next year.

        I’m sure they’re going to get both Greene and Quinn signed, anyway. Both players will take fair offers tomorrow. I’m more anxious to see what Walding, Garvey, Therienne, Moore, and Schull will do.

  26. Never recall in looking at the draft signings lists, and seeing the notation- pick awarded for failure to sign supplemental pick. And the Quinn pick came as a result of the failure to sign Jayson Werth also, Maybe that’s suspect as well.

    1. no it’s not. He was highly rated and the Yanks don’t have any top draft picks since they signed Soriano.

      1. It really isn’t… weren’t the Phillies throwing 7 digits at Frazier last year and he was a fifth rounder?

  27. Is Garvey still on the sidelines? It seems the reports of his signing over the last few months have been false. Greene must be signed. He is the season that you trade Singleton. I would survive if Quinn was not signed. I think we have our 3B and SS prospects in place. Things are looking good from a planning perspective.

    1. Failure to sign Quinn would waste a 2nd round pick and would mean missing out on a nice prospect with elite speed. Plus, most “experts” seem to think Quinn won’t work out at SS, and that he’ll end up at either 2B or CF. So I don’t think signing Martinez and Tyler Greene has much to do with Quinn.

  28. Where are you guys looking for the deals or updates is there certain websites I should check? thanks in advance

  29. sounds like greene, quinn and walding are all we are getting if they all agree to their final offer…no one else with budgets restrictions…no garvey , shull or JDT…no replenishing our minors leagues with the trade money which will be a shame….they need to give marti more money if we want to restock with our draft picks, we continue to spend less then all the other teams on our draft picks wonder what the future holds…id rather have these three players in place of quinn or walding…..two great arms and one great bat !!!

    1. “id rather have these three players in place of quinn or walding…..two great arms and one great bat !!!”

      ….I just shake my head at this type of comment.

      1. are you serious? now we have greene who is an OF with 6.8 speed….quinn will be in the OF and not have the bat greene or garvey have . Walding is another SS. Ive seen T Greene play short and with him there, there isnt a need for walding whatsoever which would leave us enough money to get Shull a 6’6 LHP throwing low 90’s as a 18 year old and JDT a RHP throwing 90 and Garvey to help replenish our farm from the Pence deal…we have lost 7 draft picks the last two years alone with trades from our system. So to be able to get 3 great players in place of one great player for about the same money its a no brainer…..

  30. (Larry Greene Jr) “Is officially a philadelphia phillie thanks everyone for being behind me supportting me through this i love all of yall!!!!!!!!!!”

    facebook update 5 mins. ago

      1. Sooooo that’s what the hold up was, more money than we expected:

        jimcallisBA Jim Callis
        First seven-figure deal outside 1st. @johnmanuelba: #Phillies signed top pick, supp. 1st-rder. OF Larry Greene, for a $1 mil bonus #mlbdraft

  31. That first round bonus doesn’t do harm to Quinn’s own figure for a bonus of his own for significant money…elevated by the $1 mil deal.

    Quinn, Walding, Garvey and Schull…tomorrow?

  32. The official word…
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2011/08/phillies-sign-larry-greene-for-1-million/

    The Phillies have signed their top draft pick, agreeing to terms with supplemental first-rounder Larry Greene, the 39th overall selection in the draft. According to an industry source, Greene received a $1 million bonus, the first reported seven-figure bonus outside the first round. The commissioner’s recommended slot for the 39th pick was $844,200.
    Greene’s signing leaves the Phillies with four unsigned players in the first 10 rounds, led by speedy outfielder Roman Quinn (second round).

    1. 250- 300,000 could have him and probably the same for Shull and JDT…whats another million to have these three guys……we are crazy if we don’t go for them!!!!

        1. Maybe Anonymous works in the FO which is why he posts anonymously. At least that would justify the “we” reference πŸ™‚

        2. “we” as in philly nation when we are the ones buying the shirts , hats, 50 buck tickets and all that delicious beer….yes “we” are spending our money…….

          1. Does that mean that I should now start referring to Microsoft as we since the laptop I recently bought has Windows 7 installed?

            Yes, you are spending your money to see an event, no different that going to the movies or attending a concert. Do you also say “We should win an Oscar for that one”.

            I understand (and share) the emotional investment in the team but always find the “we” references from fans humorous.

            1. beleive it our not the “we” are the fans that are emotionally attached to a team…your examples are good examples just not in the context to what we are talking about here…..the reason these organizations exist are because of our emotional attachment to them with that you have no NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA ……

              your reasoning is typical of todays America….dont get attached , dont take it personally sort of mentality is the reason why we now are the country we are…..i don’t care what you think…im emotionally attached and will say “we” just as I read “We the People”/…..im attached to America and I’m attached to the Phillies…..I beleive also we have a bell around her somewhere to….

  33. It is sad the lengths to which some here defend what will most likely amount to the lowest draft spend in MLB from 2009 thru 2011.

    1. And it would be nice if the Philly media shed some light on this. They could barely find room in a notes column a few days ago to mention the fact that the draft signing deadline was a few days away. I shouldn’t be surprised, but some additional light on the draft and why the Phillies choose not to spend more would be nice — likely the brass would just say they are spending most of all they have in the majors and then the media focus would go back to extra days of rest for the major league players, we are still looking for another bullpen arm if the price is right, etc.

    2. I love how people want to spend other peoples money and think they are experts themselves. I trust that the Phillies know what they are doing and look forward to more signings.

  34. how cheap did they think garvey would sign for is my question. A high school kid with option is going to want that not to persue college. wasted fifteen round pick. at least if you dont want to spend big on high school kids after ten rounds draft all college relief pitchers.i know they gave cozart 500 but have let a lot go with there low draft budject. so i guess they will spend big only at major league level.

  35. It’s not how much you spend, it’s how you spend it. Look at how many top prospects Phils dealt recently. They’re obviously doing something right. Hopefully they sign a few more.

  36. If Brian Pointer was worth $350K, surely Garvey was. Garvey is saying the same thing that Keenyn Walker said earlier this year about the fact he would have signed last year with the Phillies for $350K if they had actually made that offer to him before the last day when he had already moved into a dorm and was getting ready for classes. This year Keenyn Walker went 47th overall and got $795K to sign. What a total waste of the scouts finding and drafting these guys in later rounds.

    The problem here is a self imposed draft budget that happens to be the lowest in MLB since Reuben Amaro took over.

  37. How long before scouts and scouting department gets offers and move on. this is a stupid way to restock the system.scouts get paid bonus i believe on there guys getting picked, in top rounds. who are the great picks they have traded, a couple of borderline players. they are imo overselling prospects like the redsox and it will catch up with them. remember ed wade is done in houston. they would have never gotten pence if atlanta would have gave up one of there four top pitchers, houston really didnt love the phillies package, but atlanta refuse because of there money situation to include a top propect for pence.they couldnt afford his contract.

  38. Let’s not complain about the spending the FO is doing until we see how everything shakes out. This could still be a successful draft with 3 or4 signings.

    1. doesnt sound like they are going to spend enough to get 3-4 more…looking at quinn and walding only…..

    2. I’m OK with this approach. Deadline is not until midnight and given what we’ve heard deals will be more secretive today up to the very deadline so we may not hear anything until very, very late. That being said if all we get done today is Quinn, I’m going to be really disappointed.

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