Since I started the site, I’ve always resisted doing a re-ranking of my top 30 prospects mid-season. There are multiple reasons for this. First, when I sit down to do my offseason top 30, I look at a lot of statistics, I do a lot of thinking about which guys should go where, I try and talk to people who know more about prospects than me, and then I put everything together and come up with my best list. I start thinking about it in October, and the list eventually gets submitted in December for the Maple Street Press Phillies Annual. Its a long process, I move guys around constantly, but its a rewarding process. A number of people, people whose opinions I greatly respect, have suggested to me that I should do in-season Top 30 updates. I’ve resisted, but I think that if I do it properly, its something that can be done, and something that hopefully people here enjoy. Check below for the update
I think the thing that I need to do is just add a general disclaimer to the updates. This is not a comprehensive evaluation of our prospects, there is no advanced statistical work being done here, and this list is not likely to be my final list for the 2012 season. This list is simply a back of the envelope sketch of my thinking right now with regard to our prospects. As I’ve discussed elsewhere, prospect status is such a fluid thing, it changes by the week/month as players develop, get hurt, regress, or anything else. So its just a snapshot. Next season, I plan to update my Top 30 every month. For now, I’ll give you this update, then an update on September 1st or so, and that’s it before my finished Top 30 for 2012 is done. I’m sure you’ll disagree with me, that’s fine. This is just my thinking at this moment, and its subject to change.
Notes: Domonic Brown is no eligible. Obviously. The number in () is the player’s ranking heading in to this season
01. Trevor May, RHP, A+ (5) – In his second crack at Clearwater things have gone better. Walk rate working its way down, K rate still elite, still a big time fly ball pitcher
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP, A (7) – Made the jump to Lakewood and has bounced back after a rough April. Walks are the only red flag, but that’s to be expected. Great K rate, great HR/9 rate.
03. Sebastian Valle, C (6) – Defense continues to improve, K rate about the same as last year, walks still not there, but more power to come.
04. Brody Colvin, RHP (2) – My biggest disappointment this year. Got off on the wrong foot in ST and hasn’t really recovered. Hopefully he learns from this.
05. Domingo Santana, OF (13) – Repeating Lakewood, but better results this time. His approach is still raw, but he turns 19 in 3 days and has 36 XBH in 312 AB. K rate still his biggest red flag.
06. Zach Collier, OF (NR) – Shook off the rust in April, was great in May/June, now appears to tiring out in what is his first full season. Finally healthy, finally showing 1st round tools.
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP (16) – Walk rate is excellent, HR rate is excellent despite not being a big GB pitcher. K rate is okay. Showing a reverse platoon split, hints at better changeup
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP (10) – Struggled a bit when promoted to AAA, but hopefully getting his feet under him. 73 K and 22 BB in 59 IP this year, just 2 HR allowed, 2.09 GB to FB. Excellent.
09. Freddy Galvis, SS (NR) – I mean, I guess this is where he goes. His season has come way out of left field (or shortstop), and frankly, its an excellent sign. Still need to do more homework here.
10. Maikel Franco, 3B (NR) – Biggest breakout prospect in the system outside of Galvis. Turns 19 this month, excellent performance in the NYPL.
11. Julio Rodriguez, RHP (11) – Remains an enigma wrapped in a mystery. Tons of strikeouts, death to RHB, walks are still there, lefties have hit him, but he’s still performing.
12. Phillippe Aumont, RHP (22) – Back in the bullpen, and other than a DL speed bump, he’s been great. 58 K and 17 BB in 41 IP across 2 levels with 2 HR and a 1.73 GB to FB ratio.
13. Jiwan James, OF (18) – Walk rate up a tick, power still not showing up in games, 21 SB nice but 10 CS as well. Still, this is a step forward.
14. Michael Schwimer, RHP (23) – All he does is mow guys down. Hasn’t made it to the bigs yet because of the 40 man it would seem, but he’s knocking on the door. Big ups.
15. Tyler Greene, SS (NA) – Every year I pick one guy from the draft class to jump way up. 2 years ago it was Singleton (hit), last year it was Walter (sad), this year I guess its Greene.
16. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP (NR) – Nice breakout performance, great K/BB numbers, lefties have given him a bit of trouble, but he’s keeping the ball on the ground. Big breakout potential.
17. Harold Martinez, 3B (NA) – Showing a strong eye at the plate (24 BB) but striking out a lot and the power hasn’t fully shown itself. Not unusual for college guys in their first summer.
18. Adam Morgan, LHP (NA) – Polished college arm, good K/BB rate in small sample. Showing reverse platoon split (changeup better than we thought?) and should be a fast track guy.
19. Cameron Rupp, C (17) – Got off to a horrendous start, but has really turned up the heat finishing with a .935 OPS in July. Needs a big finish, but positive signs.
20. Brian Pointer, OF (NR) – Has more than held his own in the GCL, posting a .797 OPS (lg avg is .680) as well as racking up 15 XBH in just 115 AB. K’s are an issue, but a great debut
21. Kelly Dugan, OF (28) – Another half season for him because of injuries, but he’s come on strong of late. Next season is crucial in his development.
22. Austin Hyatt, RHP (25) – K rate is excellent, reverse platoon split guy, but he’s allowed 16 HR in 118 IP. Still probably a reliever, but maybe not quite time to pull the plug on starting
23. Carlos Rivero, 3B (NR) – I’m on board. In fact, I might be short-changing him here. I think he’s legit, and I’m excited to see what he does in AAA.
24. Matt Rizzotti, DH (24) – Not much has changed. Has performed well in AA this year, but getting older and doesn’t have a real position. Seems like an AL guy, or a pinch hitter in the NL
25. David Buchanan, RHP (NR) – Hit a rough patch in June, but bounced back nicely. Peripherals still aren’t fantastic, not sure if he sticks as a starter.
26. Kyrell Hudson, OF (NR) – Still raw, but showing signs of progress. Needs to finish strong.
27. Aaron Altherr, OF (15) – Just hasn’t gone his way this season, but he’s still young enough to turn things around. Tool set is still there, just needs to figure out how to unlock it.
28. Tyson Gillies, OF (9) – I mean, I want to believe. I really do. On raw tools, he merits being on the list, but his body appears broken. I’m really pulling for him.
29. Cesar Hernandez, 2B (12) – Its been a rough season for him, and his peripherals all went in the wrong direction. I still have hope, but its not really based on anything rational.
30a. Cody Asche, 2B (NA) – Results haven’t been great, but the transition to pro ball is tough, especially when you are changing from a corner infield spot to a middle infield spot. Like the approach
30b. Derrick Mitchell, OF (NR) – I knew there was one person I missed. Mitchell probably deserves to at least be in the back end of the Top 30. I need to investigate him more this winter before I really have a good feel for where he belongs. But I think he does belong.
I’m sure I missed people, I’m sure I have guys too high and too low. But you’ve asked for it, so you got it.