Q/A with Kevin Goldstein

* Interviews

In what has become one of my favorite yearly traditions, Kevin Goldstein was kind enough to donate some of his time to answer questions about Phillies prospects and his newly released Top 11 (well, really, top 21) prospects list, which you can view here at Baseball Prospectus. Kevin’s coverage of the minors is second to none, and his accessibility and willingness to interact, especially via twitter, makes him a real asset to the prospecting community. You can follow him here. Thanks again to Kevin for taking the time. Check below the fold for the full Q/A

phuturephillies: Lets start with an easy question. How would you rate the Phillies farm system now compared to this time last season?

Kevin Goldstein: Well, I had them 24th last year, and they are significantly higher than that on this year’s org rankings, which will be out later in the week. It’s a very difficult system to assess, as it has the potential to be a monster, and a potential to be a nightmare. After Brown and the two relievers, we’re talking about a Top 11 that is nothing buy guys who played in Low A and/or short-season leagues in 2010. There’s a ton of upside here, but obviously a ton of risk as well.

phuturephillies: The package in the Cliff Lee deal has been scrutinized beyond belief (and its justified, to a degree), but which guy of the 3 do you think has the biggest chance to take a leap forward in 2011?

Kevin Goldstein: I think on a pure talent level, you have to go with Aumont, and he could get back on track quickly as a reliever. Ramirez also profiles as a reliever for me, just because he can’t find a deep enough arsenal to start. Gillies is obviously in some tall weeds with his bad performance and off-the-field issues.

phuturephillies: I’ve seen divergent scouting reports on your sleeper, Julio Rodriguez, with some reports indicating his fastball sitting in the 90-93 range, and others saying 87-90. Where do you see him settling in velocity wise, and does he look more like a swingman/multi inning reliever or a starter?

Kevin Goldstein: They’re both right, and I think that’s important to note. His velo definitely fluctuates, so it might not be unfair to say his fastball is 88-92. I might be more optimistic on him that you. I think he has a real chance to become a decent little 4-5 starter.

phuturephillies: You ranked Jarred Cosart a 3 star guy this year, an increase from his out of the top 10 ranking at this time last year. If he had no health issues, is he a clear 5 star prospect? Are there are any particular red flags in his delivery, or should we view his health worries as just a young arm trying to adjust to the pro game?

Kevin Goldstein: No, I don’t think he’d be five stars. First of all, it’s a dangerous extrapolation. If he had no health issues, he would have pitched twice as many innings last year and a full year in ’09, and would he have been as good for that long? We just don’t know that. In addition, while the fastball is potentially downright special, it’s also his only current plus pitch. There are no obvious issues with his delivery. You don’t watch him and think he’s an injury waiting to happen or anything. I’m still quite high on him, but he definitely needs to develop the rest of his arsenal before he moves into five-star territory.

phuturephillies: Your report on Jesse Biddle is quite promising, noting his huge frame and present velocity, as well as a feel for a big curveball. Do you think he has any more velocity in his frame, or is he just about maxed out now in terms of projection?

Kevin Goldstein: Well, he also might have less, and that has to be put out there. I could probably reel off a couple hundred guys who never again threw as hard as they did in high school. It definitely happens. That said, I’m a big Biddle fan, he was downright glowing in instructs and I think he’s a great breakout candidate pick.

phuturephillies: A personal favorite of mine, who didn’t crack your top 20, is 2B Cesar Hernandez. He’s been sort of slow to develop, but had a nice season in the NYPL, showing excellent contact skills and above average speed. Is his total lack of power that big of a red flag for scouts at this point?

Kevin Goldstein: Hernandez just missed my 20, along with Gillies, Rizzotti, Rupp, Eldemire and Shreve. You nailed what he is. He puts the bat on the ball, has some idea of the strike zone, runs well, and is a good second baseman. That’s certainly a nice combination of abilities, but the upside is questionable.

phuturephillies: You seem optimistic on Jiwan James, while I’ve read pessimistic reports on him in other places. Do scouts see him starting to translate his tools to actual baseball skills, especially at the plate?

Kevin Goldstein: I’d argue that considering his background, what we saw last year at Lakewood was pretty impressive. Yes, he definitely needs to improve his approach, no question, but he’s potentially outstanding defensively, and there are certainly tools to provide a big offensive ceiling. I understand the pessimism, as there’s a lot of bust potential, but you can’t ignore the ceiling.

phuturephillies: Could you go into a bit of detail on Sebastian Valle’s defensive progress? A few years ago, it seemed that he was an iffy bet to stick behind the plate, but it seems he’s made a lot of progress there, especially in throwing out base runners. Are scouts optimistic about the progress he’s making, especially considering he is still very young?

Kevin Goldstein: There is optimism, as long as it’s clear that we’re just talking about the fact that he can remain a catcher. He’s never going to be confused with Pudge or a Molina brother back there, but he should be able to at least play the position competently. He’s another guy who needs a lot of work on the approach, so the power can really shine.

phuturephillies: Did you get anything from scouts on 2010 draftees Brian Pointer, Jonathan Musser or Kevin Walter? Walter in particular is a guy I’ve taken a liking to, as he seemed polished for a high school pitcher, and he has a big power pitcher’s frame, even if the velocity isn’t there yet.

Kevin Goldstein: I’m totally with you on Walter, and so are scouts. He’s the kind of guy where you watch him and start to dream on what he can do with professional instruction. Obviously that doesn’t always equal a step forward, but he’s the kind of guy where it at least can. For the other two, I prefer Pointer who is a little small, but very athletic.

phuturephillies: Two draftees who didn’t really get off on the right foot, Bryan Morgado and Gauntlett Eldemire, both showed flashes of excellent tools in their college careers. Do you have strong feelings either way about either guy going forward?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m a big Eldemire fan, and almost made him my sleeper. He was playing hurt during the second part of the college season, and they might have hurt him during his debut. I’m interested in seeing what the healthy, well-rested version can do.

phuturephillies: Is there any hope left for 2008 first round pick Zach Collier, who missed last season with a hand injury?

Kevin Goldstein: Obviously, there is SOME, but like all high-ceiling/very raw guys, he needs to play in order to develop. He’s now entering his fourth year as a pro and he has 600-something plate appearances when you would hope he’d have double that. He’s obviously still crazy young, but he’s definitely behind.

phuturephillies: If you could pick one guy who didn’t make your list of 21 to make the biggest jump for next year’s list, who would it be?

Kevin Goldstein: Eldemire, but I like your Walter pick.

Thanks again Kevin!

44 thoughts on “Q/A with Kevin Goldstein”

  2. Great interview.

    I liked the comment on Biddle’s velocity. Its a very good point to remember that not all guys gain velocity as they get older. A guy with Jesse’s size might not necessarily ever throw harder than he does now (low 90s touching 97 on occasion from the reports).

    As a LHP, he really doesnt need to so its not an issue.

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  3. Add my thanks for Kevin taking his time to answer some questions. I can barely keep track of the Phillies prospects, let alone his charter to rank all prospects for all teams and then have the willingness to answer questions on th 50th ranked guy within one system. His knowledge and information is quite impressive.

    Kevin seems to agree that the system is quite difficult to rank due to the number of low level toolsheds both on and off the mound. I was happy to see both Mathieson and Bastardo on his list as again I think they still have potential but injuries may be their final demise.

    Most surprising ranking to me was Galvis and Garcia. Middle infielders getting some love but Hernandez and Gillies off the list was a bit surprising. If Garcia can get by as passable (below average but not horrible) SS I could see him getting a Sept callup and a likely bench spot next season. Though Utley’s status might give him an early chance. Galvis will eventually get a bench role as a McDonald type fielder but Adam Everett seems a reach at this point. Hernandez is still a low level guy and seemed to come out of nowhere on the prospect rankings while Gillies had just a lost season.

    Most surprising answer for me was his best hope of Aumont of the ‘Lee Three’. Although I agree that Aumont may have the highest ceiling I think Gillies and Ramirez are more likely to make it.

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  4. Another big thanks to KG for taking the time and PP for pursuing him. It’s great to hear a number of views on our system, then to try to put them all together.

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  5. “After Brown and the two relievers, we’re talking about a Top 11 that is nothing buy guys who played in Low A and/or short-season leagues in 2010. There’s a ton of upside here, but obviously a ton of risk as well.”

    I would really like to know what his doubt is about Jonathan Singleton. My first reaction is to write “if you don’t know what to expect from Jonathan Singleton maybe you need to look for something else to do”.

    The Upton brothers
    David Wright
    Delmon Young
    Jay Bruce
    Billy Butler
    Jason Heyward
    Josh Hamilton

    These are Singleton’s peer group in the last ten years of minor league ball. B.J. Upton won’t run out a ground ball in the World Series so we know what his problem is.

    I don’t know of anyone else who fit this profile and fizzled out in the last decade. Hamilton even survived becoming a full time dope fiend for several years and not playing.

    Well, barring injury we’ll have an answer within four months.

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    1. I do think he addresses that in terms of him mentioning that the talent is at Low A. The reality with Singleton is that he’s had a phenomenal half year – total. Please don’t take this is knocking Singleton, but you can’t really say “surefire superstar” off of that small if a sampling size. I think that’s what Kevin means – and why he said there is potential for “monster”.

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      1. PA 119 BA .290 OBP .395 SLG .440 OPS .835 AGE 17

        PA 450 BA .290 OBP .393 SLG .479 OPS .872 AGE 18

        Where do you see a “half season”?

        I have written here how Baseball America’s scouting report on Kyrell Hudson was the worst I’ve ever read, period. The Baseball America scouting report on Singleton was the best I’ve ever read for __a player signed to such a small bonus__ ($200,000). They wrote of the special “whoosh” that his bat made when he swung. It was a report of disbelief at the lack of success that Singleton had in high school given the talent that a scout could see.

        From the time the Phillies signed Singleton and handed him a bat though you can see the top-of-the-first-round talent that Baseball America wrote of.

        I took from K.G. speaking of “monster system” to refer to players like Altherr, Domingo Santana, Jiwan James and a few others (including Cossart) perhaps who have not shown like Singleton, though it would seem that K.G. inexplicably groups Singleton in with this bunch.

        That’s what I don’t understand.

        If someone laid out the case for Singleton being a better prospect than Domonic Brown I would not feel any need to argue against them. I would probably end up jumping in to support him after the attacks began.

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        1. Look at his milb.com profile here: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=572138

          Under “Splits” look at Pre All-Star and Post All-Star and you will see what Steve B is talking about.

          I think anyone is completely justified in saying that someone who does very well in low A, even at a young age, is risky. Obviously there is injury risk, but what if his Post All-star numbers are the real Jonathan Singleton?

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          1. Kelly Johnson

            age 19 Low A .918 OPS
            age 20 high A .719 OPS

            Which was the real Kelly Johnson?

            Perhaps Singleton will be a streaky hitter. Maybe he just was not used to the full-time grind of a season having only played high school ball previously?

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            1. Agreed. There are a number of possible outcomes for Singleton. We just don’t have enough evidence yet, which makes projecting him somewhat risky.

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    2. I did think of someone else who fits Singleton’s profile who some may consider to have “fizzled”.

      Hank Blalock

      Of course, Blalock was a two-time All-Star before he fizzled, and surgeries figured into that.

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      1. There is an element of risk in Singleton that there is not in, say, Mike Trout or Dominic Brown or Jesus Montero, who have had more success and experience. Nothing more, nothing less. Singleton could end up as Babe Ruth Jr, but he has not had as many at bats as the three cited above. I think this is what Goldstein is pointing out. He is also saying that the 6 or so Low A guys (Singleton, James, Cosart, Valle, Colvin, May, et al) continue to grow and improve, the Phillies have a monster. It’s just that teams usually are not that lucky.

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        1. Mike Trout would be the one to show caution for.

          Check out the last half dozen Angels hitting prospects. To one degree or another all of fizzled based on their production in the minors. I would use Howie Kendrick as a model for Mike Trout. Trout is likely to be a MLB starter, but you can’t predict at what level he might be.

          Oakland is another flagged organization. Hitting prospects go there to die. Two from the Phils have, CarGo died then got dealt to Colorado and became all that anyone thought he might.

          Daric Barton looks “interesting”, but before he got to Oakland he seemed destined to be outstanding. It would seem that the A’s have emphasized his ability to draw walks and pushed his development there rather than to improve his hit tool, which was outstanding when he was in the Cards organization.

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  6. James, thanks for the great work with the good questions, KG certainly knows his stuff. Its nice to read that KG sees in James what I see and its also interesting to read his accurate but on point comments about Cosart and Biddle. If we honestly think about our system and only grade highly the guys that have had at least two good minor league seasons, who would be on that list other than Dom? We’re all trying to look at projections but the reality is that production is ultimately the name of the game. I can come up with Matheson, Harold Garcia, Hyatt, and probably Singleton, who had a decent GCL start the year before. Anyone else? We obviously have a system with guys that have high upside but lots of risk because they haven’t done it for awhile.

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      1. Worley was terrible the year before at Reading. I agree that Bastardo when healthy has done a nice job in the minors for a couple of years now. DeFratus was only ok the year before, nothing like like last year. Its not a long list of guys with two strong years in a row.

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  8. JC Ramirez got the ball in the third inning and gave up a double but sandwiched it with strikeouts. In the fourth he gave up a walk followed by two strikeouts.

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  9. Wow, just awesome. KG coming to the site and offering in-depth insight.

    Valle being able to stick at catcher is great. I really think he concentrated on the defensive skills last year. Maybe this year he sets his sights on being a little more patient.

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  10. JC Ramirez hitting 95 mph with the fastball and a pretty nasty slider, struck out 4 I think in 2 innings, looked dominant.

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    1. Matt Gelb concurs. The best news I’ve read all day:

      magelb Most impressive today? J.C. Ramirez, who struck out 4 (incl. Bautista, J.P.) all swinging in 2 IP. Hit 94-95 regularly with a sharp slider.
      4 minutes ago via TweetDeck

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    2. Are you listening to the game? I’m watching it on the gamecast so its hard to get much of an idea of how the pitchers are doing because it doesn’t show every pitch or the pitch speed.

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        1. Gamecast isn’t providing pitch detail and this point and neither are T-Mac and Sarge. It’s like if inane and idiotic has a child in my ears.

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          1. Spring Training is fun like that. SNY had an interview with Daniel Murphy talk COMPLETELY over Bryce Harper’s first AB (a three pitch strikeout).

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  11. Can’t wait to get home and maybe see some replay. Anyone hear any of DB’s AB’s? I see he took another ofer with a BB.

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    1. Yeah, listened to the whole game. Can’t really take much from Sarge and JJ’s commentary, but they did mention his “aggressiveness” in at least two of the at-bats.

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  12. The Milwaukee Brewers have by acclimation the worst farm system in baseball. I thought it’d be interesting to see how well our #30 (Cameron Rupp) would rate in their system. The best Brewers prospect I can’t comfortably rate lower than Rupp is Logan Schafer, their #16. (Though #14 after the Greinke trade). At least half of the Brewers’ top 30 wouldn’t rate on the Phillies’ top 30.

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  13. Nothing like starting a post with an apology – but let me apologize. Just wanted to make people aware of something so not sure where to post it.

    Interesting tidbit on Baseball America about the voting in their top 100. Six folks submit their list of top 150 players and they use that to come up with the top 100. They posted the other folks who didn’t make the Top 100 but were on someone’s top 150. A few Phils showed up. Interesting that somene had Trevor May 58th overall (and he was on 5 of 6 ballots) and Sabastin Valle was on 4 ballots and topped out as someone’s 64th. Here’s the link:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2011/2611354.html

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    2. Thanks, interesting stuff. Lots of Phils mentioned in six people’s top 150 ballots including Santana, Biddle, James, and Valle in addition to May. Its funny but we’ve all understandbly downplayed May because of his control problems. His stuff really plays up well so if he ever does gain decent control, he will be a legit prospect. Minor league camp opens today with the first games March 14.

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  14. Keith Law just released an article on who he thinks has the best chance to jump into his top 10 next year and Singleton was the first listed. Also says Cosart fits the description as well.

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  15. JC Ramirez topped out at 95 mph the other day KOing 4 Toronto starters in 2 innings. I didn’t realize he had such a fastball. Excellent news indeed. What was he base fastball last year and what did he top out at?

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    1. I believe he’s always had the fastball. Its the lack of any real consistent secondary pitches that kills him.

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  16. Seem to recall last year in a spring training game at Dunedin Ramirez’s fastball topped around 92. Yesterday was the best I have ever seen him pitch and this was against mostly major league hitters. He was mixing up all his pitches to get the strike outs. His strike out pitch on JP Arencibia on was at 89 which may have been a cutter. He struck out Bautista and Rajai Davis on 83 mph off speed pitches which may have been his slider after setting them up with 92-95 fastballs and he got John McDonald on a 93 fastball. His next appearance should be interesting.

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  17. anybody know who cesar hernandez got his hit against, slash if it was a single/double/etc. Im really surprised he got an at bat in this game or was even at this game for that matter considering he spent last season in williamsport. Great for him though.

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    2. He’s on the 40 man roster and everyone on the 40 man starts in big league camp. I’m sure he’ll be included in the first wave of cuts announced in a few days since minor league camp opened yesterday. Once the minor league camp gets past the initial stuff and into specific drills (probably this weekend), there will be a large reassignment of guys down.
      Btw, my dark horse Barfield continues to make his mark… If they only play him at 2B, it means he has no shot. If they slide him over to 3B or out to LF, that means he’s suddenly inserted himself into the equation and they’re taking a look.

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