My plan was to get my Top 30 prospects off the ground, but after spilling a glass of water on my laptop keyboard, I’m working on backup resources for a few days. My goal is to have the first installment (intro, prospects 1-3) up on Monday of next week. Until then, we’ll do an open discussion. The topic I wanted to throw out there is prospects facing key seasons in 2011. Essentially these will be prospects who, if they don’t have a big season in 2011, are in danger of falling off the map. So, discuss away, and I hope to be back up and running soon. Thanks.
139 thoughts on “Make or break prospects in 2011”
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Phuture Phillies 
Adam Buschini if he hasn’t already fallen off
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Adam Buschini is already done. Worst draft pick of the last 3 years. He could easily get cut in Spring Training.
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I think there have been worse picks…Collier and Hewitt come to mind.
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Buschini is a worse pick, because raw, tools guys are expected to struggle with basic baseball skills early. You don’t draft a 22 year old, college player, with limited upside, expect him to struggle with basic baseball skills. At least not in the 4th round.
Buschini can’t hit and can’t catch the ball. Buschini is 24, and he is not much better at hitting than Hewitt.
The pick is worse because you don’t expect an experienced, high draft pick to, flame out so fast.
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domingo santana
im serious.. if he has another bad year.. may be a sign he isnt going to put it together.. and other prospects will leap past him
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agreed. at some point his performance has to match the hype.
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He is only 18 years old and he was playing in Lakewood… he has plenty of time to figure it out. He’s in no danger at all of already falling off the map.
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“He is only 18 years old ”
Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!Hahah!
He’s a Dominican!
The CIA would have to waterboard his mother to find out his real age.
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Amazing informed and erudite reply. Based on well-documented facts, too, I see.
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i couldn’t disagree more…most 18 year olds are worrying about where they will get drafted, and haven’t even seen a minor league game…
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Anthony Hewitt
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I second this one. He has to be the definition of “in danger of falling off the map.” This is his age 22 season and he has 800 ABs at a .592 OPS. I think he needs to show some improvement this year.
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I’d say he’s fallen off the map of most by now…not many glimmers of hope either
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He’s off the map already. Has been for a while. Just stop.
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Joe Savery
Drew Naylor
Matt Rizzotti (If he doesn’t break through, he’ll be a 26 year old AAA hitter in 2012)
Julian Sampson (Converted to relief)
Andrew Carpenter
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I don’t see Naylor as a make or break. Unlike most, I don’t believe he is sitting on the last spot on the 40 man roster. He didn’t have a bad year last year and he is the same age as Austin Hyatt. The fact that the Phillies have kept him in the starting rotation this long, shows the organization still likes him. If he struggles, they’ll just throw him in the pen and he will be the next great bullpen piece.
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2011 is make or break for Naylor because it is his last option year on the 40-man roster. If he is kept he would have to be on the 25-man roster by April 2012 or he has to clear waivers every time he is sent to the minors.
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Savery is already off. He’s not even a pitcher anymore. That’s the definition of being done.
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The Reading lineup should be the most interesting one in the system with a make or break year for just about all the players trying to prove they merit continued prospect status. Have a feeling Joe Savery is going to have a big year at first. He has hit .283 in the minors (28 for 99) including .346 with a homer last year at Lehigh Valley in 46 at bats. Derrick Mitchell should put up some nice home run numbers there too. Will Freddy Galvis finally up his OPS? And we will all be following the three guys picked up in the Lee deal to restock the system to see if they have what it takes to continue prospect status. All of them should start the season in Reading.
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Hewitt is my #1 – he needs to have a big 1st half so he is called up to CLW by the time the 2011 draftees report to WPT and GCL. Plus he has many young outfielders behind him.
Savery #2 – Well he can’t pitch…he better hit
Carpenter and Naylor #3 and #4 – The young studs of Cosart, Colvin, May, and Rodriguez are getting closer
and I do agree the the “Lee Three” need to step it up. Keeping Aumont in the BP for the whole yr hopefully helps and hopefully Gillies and Ramirez stay healthy.
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yea u is right
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I agree that Julian Sampson has this year to prove he can fulfill some of the promise he showed. Andrew Carpenter has to show something more than an AAAA pitcher. Anthony Hewitt has no wiggle room. D’Arby Myers and Derrick Mitchell need big years at Reading or both will be gone. Will Zach Sterner ever get off the DL? Cisco and Way seem to have reached their threshold. Heitor Correia seems to have reached his limit. If the Phillies had no patience with Jesus Sanchez, what chance does Lendy Castillo have? These players may have a chance with other teams, but not the Phillies.
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Heitor Correa’s (and Edgar Garcia’s) make or break season was last year, for prospect status. He wasn’t protected and nobody selected him in the rule 5.
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Lendy Castillo? Seems to me he is the antithesis of the now or never type. He has only been a convert to pitching for one season, and he came very fast. He only spun the proverbial wheels for a couple of weeks before he became a dominant starter.
There may be a question whether he starts or gets programmed for a potential future closer, but as of now he looks like a bright prospect.
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That’s just how Jesus Sanchez looked though. Sanchez got results his whole time as a pitcher and the Phils still let him go. I think that’s the point the OP was making.
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I seriously doubt Hewitt will start at Reading. I agree that this may well be his last season.
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How do you go about showing you are more than a AAA pitcher if you can’t get anything but AAA starts? Some of these guys can pitch in the big leagues, they just happen to be playing for a major league team that is ready to win and not going to risk wins and losses on rookies but rather proven vets (pedro’s, rodrigo lopez’s, kris benson’s) that may have less talent but more experience. It’s not always about make or break, but where and when.
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Well, when you are going to get limited opportunities to impress, you have perform a little better than Mathieson did in his two opportunities.
5 outs, 7 base runners? Come on.
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Cisco and Overbeck and me
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collier has gotta show something this year as well.
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I feel like Anthony Hewitt has already been written off, in the Wall Street sense of the word–we’ve depreciated his value to the point that in 2011 anything we get out of his will amount to a pleasant (and near-total) surprise, and thus I don’t think we can call this a make or break year for him. Same for someone like Savery. I would confine my list to guys who made the top 30 but might have a chance of dropping way down/off without a significant step forward this year, and might shoot up near the top if they manage to put things together.
1)Freddy Galvis–despite his youth, I think he needs to show some improvement with the bat in 2011. If he hits .220, it’s going to be hard to keep making the “he’s young for his league” argument.
2)Tyson Gillies–I love the guy’s speed and talent, but given all his off-field problems, injuries and otherwise, he needs to blow (ahem) people away in AA.
3)Vance Worley–I realize people are high on him, and for good reason after his expectation-exceeding performance last year. But given this rotation, he’s going to have to make a serious case for himself in the race with Blanton and Kendrick for 5th starter/mop up guy role. I’m not saying he’s out of baseball if he doesn’t make it out of spring training. But I am saying it’s a fine line between “promising triple A arm” and “Andrew Carpenter.”
Guys who seem like they are facing a crossroads, if not as dramatic one as the guys above, include: Hewitt, Zach Collier, Phillipe Aumont, Scott Mathieson and Colby Shreve.
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I’m not sure I agree on Worley. He may have performed ahead of his abilities last year, especially in the majors, but if he does in AAA for a full season what he did in AA and AAA last year I’d say he’s still on track. This is his age 23 season, so an ERA in the mid-3s in AAA would be a success in my mind.
I think the most important thing to watch for him is his ability to have a lower walk rate than he had in AA and somehow maintain the higher K rate he had in AAA and the majors. Hmm…I suppose that’s true for every pitcher…walk fewre and strikeout more. I guess what I mean is that he’s shown flashes of the ability to do that, so the question is whether those were luck or something he can actually do consistently.
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Vance Worley is going into the Phils bullpen out of spring training. He’ll be setting up for Madson before the season is done. He’s a stud out of the pen. Apparently you didn’t see him perform in that role last year.
Tyson Gillies asked a cop for a ride.
Big mistake. Stay away from cops. Keep your mouth shut if you are around them for whatever reason. Stay away from those friendly with cops.
The bag of dope belonged to a previous passenger. Charges dropped.
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Has to be Scott Mathieson. He is out of options and I just cannot see him making it through waivers if he doesn’t make the team. As hard as it is to believe, he came up to the Phils in 2006, the same year that Hamels made his debut. In fact, immediately following the Abreu, Lidle, Bell and Cormier moves, both Mathieson and Hamels went into the rotation full time and Mathieson was actually starting on the day he injured his arm.
His rehab has been heart warming, his minor league performances encouraging and his potential enormous. But I have always sensed that the Phils don’t have nearly the confidence in him that many of us have and if he doesn’t impress this spring he will be gone…either traded for a lesser prospect or waived and undoubtedly claimed.
Honestly cannot imagine a player other than Savery who so fits the description of this thread…perform or be gone for good. Players like Hewitt, Collier, Rizzotti and the Lee Three aren’t going anywhere, they will be back in 2012 unless traded simply because they are either still young enough or talented enough to hang on for another year or two.
Not so Scott Mathieson. Out of options. Arbitration eligible. History of injury. Almost 27 years old. It is definitely hit or miss time for Scott.
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I don’t know that the terms of the discussion–succeed or “fall off the map”–mean succeed or be released. I don’t think someone like Galvis will be out of baseball if he doesn’t hit next year, but I think that there’s a good chance that people like me–and I have been one of the wait and see folks–will stop talking about him as a prospect if he doesn’t pick it up a notch.
Not sure what the deal is the Mathieson on the waivers situation, but you’re right, I think it’s make or break for him this year. That said, he didn’t make the Top 30, not for my lack of advocating, and thus I didn’t include him. Figure that for those outside the Top 30 in the system, every year is pretty much a make or break year.
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Agree that this is a very big ST for Mathieson.
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Good post, all valid points. I like Scott, so I hope he puts it all together, and makes the ball club…
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As hard as Mathieson throws, this isn’t a make or break year for him…he had a nice year last year and wasn’t given a chance after a few injury filled years. If he doesn’t make it with the Phils, a lesser team will throw him in their bullpen and give him a solid chance based on his fastball, ability to throw strikes, and competitiveness alone.
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How hard he throws? Tyler Clifford and Derrick Turnbull both throw harder than him, and they can’t keep a job.
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I believe you mean Tyler Clippard, not Clifford. And he’s actually had 2 very nice years for the Nats.
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I think he also means Turnbow. Derrick Turnbow is the man’s name.
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Derrick “Turnbull” Turnbow closed for the Brewers for a while I believe and Tyler “Cliffored” Clippard doesn’t throw as hard as Mathieson does but he doesn’t have a problem keeping a job after the last few years he’s had. He might not end up being a Mariano Romero or a Trevor Hoppman but he will get a chance to pitch somewhere in the big leagues.
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You know who’s really good? Clifford Turnbull. Dude throws gas.
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At the top of my list is Aumont. The man has gone from a top #100 prospect to not making the Phillies top 10 and that was before everyone knew he was moving back to the bullpen. I’d put Rizzotti and Overbeck on the list, mostly because they only really became prospects last year and need to repeat that. Possibly Kyrell Hudson, Colby Shreve and Zach Collier.
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Kyrell Hudson had the worst write-up I’ve ever seen at Baseball America. He would not run out ground balls in high school. Already had a B.J. Upton attitude. Whoever approved his bonus should be fired. I would not have given him a Happy Meal at McDonald’s to sign. To top it off he only hit .300 in high school in a program that was far from special. It’s typical in top programs for a good bat prospect to hit well over .500.
Horrible signing.
Philip Aumont I agree. He has to find the plate. If he doesn’t this year that will be two egregious seasons in a row and I can’t recall anyone finding the plate after two seasons like that.
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Mattair came to mind first. I’m sure most have written him off and don’t consider him even a wisp of a prospect. Hewitt falls in the category. They may keep him around just to torture him. They paid him too much money for him not to go through more pain. Hudson is a guy who has to show something. Too many talented, speedy, high potential OF prospects in the organization.
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I’m the anonymous above.
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I’m with you Bellman – that’s who I thought of initially as well. But there are, in my opinion, a ton of guys who have been listed that qualify. Galvis is probably also high on my list as well – the Gold Glove won’t play in the majors if he can’t contribute anything offensively
– Jeff
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1. Hewitt: This is his last year before needing to be protected, I believe. I don’t like his chances because he may not get playing time.
2. Aumont: Even though he is still young, he has to show something so he doesn’t become labeled a 1st round bust.
3. Mathieson: Make the major league team before September or trade him.
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Jon Velasquez will have to move quickly. btw A little luck might help.
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Velasquez? Seriously? I’ll assume you’re kidding… He was an after thought when they signed him as a minor league FA.
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That is make or break. Isn’t it?
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Hewitt (on the verge of completely leaving prospectville)
Overbeck (can he really evolve into more than a AAAA guy? This year should tell us)
Savery (probably past the breaking point, as an extremely outside shot at redemption)
Carpenter (if he can’t learn a splitter, he will just be an organizational arm and emergency call-up guy)
Rizzotti (if he doesn’t hit for power this year, by next year, he will probably be out of the organization, although I still think he will become a major leaguer)
PLAYERS NOT REALLY ON THE BUBBLE
Aumont – he would have to show no signs of life for the team to write him off. They understand his potential and know it may still take a few more years
Worley – make or break? Are you kidding me? They know he can play and it’s just a matter of finding the right spot or the right trade to put him in. I can easily envision him being packaged for a corner outfielder or middle infielder.
Mathieson – he can pitch and they know it. Like Worley, it’s just a question of finding the right spot or the right trade.
Galvis – is young, can field and actually does make slow steady progress with the bat. He has more chances left.
Gillies – if he doesn’t produce this year, next year will be the make or break year because the team doesn’t have a centerfielder signed for 2013. But, sure, it’s an important year for him.
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Since I was the one who mentioned Galvis, Worley and Gillies, allow me to respond. I think we’ve just got got slightly different definitions of make-or-break. I’m thinking about the “make” side of the equation: guys who, if they manage to put things together, or in Worley’s case maintain his surprising progression from fringe-y arm to legit fifth starter candidate, will be in the major leagues or on the doorstep by next year. If Galvis manages to hit .280 with a decent OBP in AA next year, to me he’s on the doorstep. If Gillies hits well, makes it to AAA, steals some bases and stays healthy, to me it’s possible we could see him as a late season call-up, in the Michael Bourn pinch-runner-defensive-replacement role. If Vance Worely pitches well in ST and carries into the early season, to me it’s possible he becomes a cog in the best rotation in baseball. Of course, those are all huge “ifs”, and if Worley’s 2010 proves to be an overachievement, Galvis remains baffled, and Gillies gets injured again, all of these guys become big question marks. To me, they’re on the bubble, and that’s what makes this season crucial for them.
On the other hand, guys like Savery, Hewitt and Carpenter seem like they’ve already shown us what they are. All of them could be out of the system by this time next year. So you’re focusing on the “break” side of the equation. That’s fine–you’re just thinking about it in a different way than I am.
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I think Carp already throws a splitter?
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Maybe he meant spitter. Carp throws everything but the kitchen sink. A little grease ball might make him a big leaguer.
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Varied responses so far, but if I’m interpreting the intent of this exercise correctly, falling off the map is essentially falling out of consideration. With this in mind;
1. Anthony Hewitt – drafted in 2008 and I believe we needs to be protected next off-season. He’s a high profile draft pick that needs to show significant improvement to stay within the organization. He certainly won’t be protected without a breakout season which doesn’t leave much flexibility for the frmr 1st rounder
2. Joe Savery – will make for a great story-line if he shows he could hit. At the same time, I feel he needs to have a very promising season to stay within the organization. He’s play the entire season at age 25 (DOB 11/4/85)
3. Scott Mathieson – I love the velocity but can he compliment it? Make or break year for Scott. Would love to see him get 20-30 innings with the bug club this year and lock down a spot for 2012. It’s unlikley that he’ll break with the team out of ST so it will be an uphill battle. I’m rooting for him
Others, Zach Collier, Antonio Bastardo and John Mayberry. If the latter two cannot prove that they could hold a pen and 4th Of’er spot, I believe they will be out of favor with the Phils brass by mid-season.
Anyone headed to ST this year?
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Agree on Mayberry. He is a big leaguer by the end of this season or I doubt he is in the organization next season.
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I missed Mayberry (perhaps because he’s not on my mental radar screen as a real prospect). It’s completely a make it or break it year for him. I think he tantalizes the team with his broad array of physical skills – but he’s just not shown thus far that he’s a competent offensive player. It would nearly shock me if he became a good major league hitter – but I don’t expect to be surprised with him.
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I think Mayberry’s “make or break” year was actually last year. Imo he’s kicked the proverbial prospect bucket.
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Mayberry is not even a AAA player.
Stick a fork in him, he’s done.
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I wanted to make what might be a slightly different post. Which may be close to the Header. Players not on the Top 30 List who if they do not *kick it* this year most likely will be done.
Anthony Hewitt
D’arby Myers
Zach Collier
Joe Savery
Scott Mathieson
Mike Zagerski
Adam Buschini
Andrew Carpenter
Travis Mattair
Cody Overbeck
John Mayberry
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Good list though I probably would pull Collier out of that. I think he gets two more years to prove himself because of his injury. He will play at Lakewood this year if healthy at age 20. Younger than Jiwan James was last year and each of them was delayed somewhat for different reasons. I think Collier still has the potential to be a plus offensive corner OF. We should not read much into a kid struggling at age 18 in a full season league. They injury last year is a bigger concern and unknown for me.
But tools do matter. Hewitt will get more chances because of tools, though because he is a couple of years older than Collier his time to prove himself is not.
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I like this list and agree on Collier. I’d add Tim Kennelly.
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Sir Alden’s list is a good one and like the way he framed the issue.
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i second that
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I agree with many of the names listed above. However, I feel that players like Galvis, Aumont, Worley, and Rizzotti aren’t pressed into a make or break year.
Galvis is still so young. Aumont is a highly touted pitching prospect with a good fastball. Can’t teach that. The Phills won’t easily give up on him. Worley if anything, has been better than expectations. I think he’s fine and even a slight regression won’t hurt his chances. Finally I just don’t see the reasoning why Rizzotti is in a make or break year. He isn’t being challenged by anyone else in the org and if he regresses, which is most likely, he’ll still be given a chance to prove himself for the time being because of how few bats the Phills have as options in the upper minors.
In my opinion the most important make or break seasons fall on:
Hewitt/Collier/Hudson – Still holding out hope but let’s be honest.
Carpenter/Naylor/Kissock – Though these guys aren’t mentioned often they need to step up this season because the influx of better talent below them will push these guys out of the system and/or way down the depth chart.
Savery/Mathieson – The Phills have been very patient and invested alot into these guys but they haven’t turned out exactly like they hope. I have to believe their place in this org could be coming to an end if they have sub par performances.
I could throw out other names like Way/Barnes/Sampson/ect but few if any of us had little to no expectations of them.
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PP’s top 30 – the best part about the off season (prospect wise anyway)!
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I’m going to take a little different approach at this and say Jiwan James. Certainly he will not fall off the map with a down year, but this is a HUGE year for him if he is to leap into uber-prospect status. A down year for him this year, and that tells me he’s just a fringe player. A big year from him, with continued development and he could follow in Dom Brown’s shoes.
So again, a different line of thinking, but for him to jump up to elite, this is a make or break year for him.
OK, let me have it now!!
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I actually buy into this one. Going into last year, everyone was psyched about the tools. Actual production was ok. Going into this year, everyone is still excited by the tools, but probably expect better translation of tools into results. If he does not do so, he becomes a potential Greg Golson instead of a potential Domonic Brown. I suppose one thing to keep in mind is that the FSL is a pitcher’s league. I suppose he won’t drop off the map with a mediocre year, but everyone’s hopes and expectations for him will be significantly changed.
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Agreed. If J. James doesn’t show progress this year then I don’t see the separation from say, D’ Arby Myers or Derrick Mitchell – guys with a lot of tools who put a few things together, but never really turned the corner.
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I think defense, arm strength and switch hitting gives James a small advantage over Derrick Mitchell and D’arby Myers.
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Don’t think it’s make or break for Santana, but his strikeout rate was off the charts last year, even back in Williamsport. It sometimes seems like he gets “extra” leeway due to his age.
Sooner or later, I guess some of the toolsy OFs and AAAA starters/relief prospects will naturally get thinned out. Hudson and Collier got too much bonus cash and have really had limited at bats for a variety of reasons, so I doubt the Phils would quit on them, but they’ll be way out of the prospect mix without some improvement.
Hard to say it’s make or break for Carpenter–it seems like that season was probably 2009. He is what he is, and will likely spend the next couple years being the guy who starts the second game of rescheduled rainout doubleheaders or being the 10th or 11th guy on a bad team’s staff. Of actual “prospects”, Colby Shreve needs to get that bump in his second year from TJS.
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I think you are right about Zach Collier – AndyB
I think he’s got 2 years maybe 3 if he has a pulse.
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Agree. I also think any former first rounder will get an extra year of leeway.
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Does Scott Mathieson have options left? If he doesn’t make the big club, will he get exposed to waivers?
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He had to go through that DFA/Unwaiverish Waivers last year, which essentially meant any team that tried to claim him couldn’t, somehow. He was not able to be optioned, but was not exposed to the league. Had to do with it being more than a certain number of days or years since his MLB debut. I would love to know what they need to do to him to send him to AAA this year, and whether they have to do it over and over throughout the year if they want to bring him up and send him down multiple times, and if he’s exposed to waivers if they try to send him down out of ST, etc. Clearly he’s a weird case.
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Scott CAN start the year in AAA. There’s no waiver issue to deal with.
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That’s a fantastic screen name. So does he still have to go through conditional assignment or whatever, or do you not know. And is there a reference for such things other than reading the CBA?
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I’d say any pitcher in Reading or Lehigh Valley due to the influx of talent moving through. This would highly include Zagurski, Carpenter, Mathieson, etc. The offense has some players that should be written off after spring training if they aren’t showing signs of life; Savory, Mayberry, Overbeck, etc. Most other offensive guys for the ‘Pigs and R-Phils have some life this season, but could be on the axe if they dont improve, such as Rizzotti, Galvis, etc.
Players in all levels of A should be on the lookout to be removed from a prospect list if they aren’t improving!
The “Lee Three” have atleast next year to produce since they are all so young. I think Gillies got cleared of the charges while he was injured extensively last year for the first time in his career. Aumont was injured/sucked for the first time as well and being back in the ‘pen should keep his head on straight and moving through the system with the other young arms. He could be a could trade token by the end of July. Romero should move steadily forward with progress as he has already. If any of these guys falters similar to 2010 the hounds will be released once again!
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Good topic and you can look at it two diferent ways. You can look at the hanging on guys who are at risk to be released or the top 30 rated guys who actually have to perform this year to keep that status. At the top of the “hanging on” list has to be Savery and Hewitt, two former 1st rd picks about to be released if they don’t produce this year. Interestingly, I heard from a minor leaguer there that Savery crushed the ball at the Instructional League and he expects him to do well this year. In the other category of top 30 guys that better do it now, I think Gilles, Aumont, and Galvis lead that list. If they don’t do it now, their stock will drop by a great deal. i think Collier will definitely get at least another year or two because he’s been hurt. Every year there are guys that get moved from prospect into the 4A category and this year will be no different. By the way, I think Mayberry will make the Phils’ roster as the back up CF (its him or Martinez) and 5th OF is about his ceiling at this point.
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Murray, that’s a nice tidbit on Savery. Let’s hope he mashes.
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Off topic but I didn’t know where to post it. Andy Pettite just announced his retirement. This actually effects the Phillies because the Yankees may need to trade for Blanton now (they have two open spots in their rotation) and they can afford him.
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I don’t think anybody has said him yet, but- Leandro Castro. Sooner or later this guy has to actually do something to validate all the talk he gets here. There’s nothing impressive about him except that he hits doubles as far as I see it.
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An OPS over 850, at age 19 in the NYPenn is impressive. He has a speed power combination that many do not have.
That is what is impressive.
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Ok but that’s two seasons ago. Last year he did a lot of nothing in Lakewood and showed some power/speed but not that much. He also needs to improve his getting on base skills a bunch. At 5’11” I don’t think there’s a lot of projection either.
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Also I think he was 20 during his NYPL season, not 19. His birthday is June of 89 and the NYPL season for 2011 starts in mid june.
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Just looking over the non roster invitees to the major league camp and saw Joel Naughton’s name. Left handed hitting catchers are rare and ones who hit over .300 with some pop at any level for any team last season are even rarer. Watched Joel drop the barrel head on an inside pitch and drive one out of Brighthouse the last week of the Thresher season last year to help keep his average over .300 for the FSL season. He has been injury prone and I believe he said in an interview that he broke a bone in his hand which caused him to miss most of the ABL season but if he can put up some good numbers at Reading and improve defensively, he has a good enough arm to get back on the 40 man roster. With Schneider’s contract up after this season he might get back on the radar screen.
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I always like Naughton. Thought he and Harman would both break into the majors together and lead an Aussie assault on the league…..boy was I way off.
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I think one of the keys to this discussion is whether you are talking about dropping off of the public’s prospect map or the Phillies’ prospect map. I think the Phillies will give more leeway to most of the guys being discussed here than most of the public will.
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Its got to be galvis. He;s not old, but he isn’t all that young anymore, and he still can’ hit well enough to justify any serious consideration as a top prospect. In my mind, he’s really already done. he might make it as like a jaun castro type of guy. thats just about his ceiling
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Juan Castro has no skills—Galvis can field and throw.
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Castro is an excellent fielder. He just has NO bat.
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got the last out in a Perfect game too. I’d say Galvis would love to have that on his C.V.
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You cannot be serious. Last season he was TWENTY YEARS OLD in AA. You cannot write off someone who can’t hit AA pitching when he’s 20. Just say he struggles this year too. Can you write off a 21-year-old who has trouble hitting in AA? NO. You can downgrade your opinion of him, but he will still be younger than most everyone he’s playing against.
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Only 2 guys who I think really needs to show something significant this year is Joe Savery and Andrew Carpenter. For Savery, they’ve already given up on the pitching part and if he doesn’t show some hitting ability quickly, there’s no reason for the team to keep him on the 40-man roster.
Carpenter only has 1 option left so 2011 will either be the year he earns a job or he becomes a minor league FA arm for another team.
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As I look at the list of players that some people hope will have breakout (big) years, I actually hope that some of them do not have real big years. Why would a diehard Phillies fan actually root for some minor league prospects to not have big years? It comes down to the Rule 5 Draft. The Phillies this year have over 18 players who will be newly eligible for the Rule 5 Draft in December 2011. While a lot of things can happen between now and then, it appears that the Phillies might be able to only protect 3 or 4 prospects on the 40-man roster if they are lucky. These are the Prospects who will become eligible for the Rule 5 draft:
Miguel Alvarez
Phillippe Aumont
Mike Bolsenbroek
Lenny Castillo
Leandro Castro
Tyson Gillies
Troy Hanzawa
Anthony Hewitt
Nathaniel ‘Jiwan’ James
Travis Mattair
Cody Overbeck
Brian J Rosenberg
Jilian Sampson
Michael Schwimer
Colby Shreve
Stephen Susdorf
Sebastian Valle
If the Phillies are only able to protect 3 or 4, I believe the following will be protected:
Phillippe Aumont
Tyson Gillies
Jiwan James
Sebastian Valle
That would mean that prospects like Colby Shreve, Miguel Alvarez, and Leandro Castro would not be able to be protected on the 40-man roster no matter how good a year they would have had in 2011. If any or all of them have excellent years it will make them all that much more likely to be taken by another Major League team in the Rule 5 Draft. The only alternative for the Phillies would be to try to package 3 or 4 of them together to get one much better player.
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Very good post, but I doubt Alvarez would get selected in the rule 5. He is in low A. The Phillies didn’t protect Harold Garcia last year. He didn’t get selected. It’s hard to carry A ball, position players on a roster.
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A number of players have been drafted out of low A ball. An example is Johan Santana who was drafted in the Rule 5 Draft out of low A ball with horrible numbers his entire minor league career. He had never played higher than low A until he was drafted.
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It’s easier to carry a relief pitcher or utility player though than an outfielder. Also, remember that a lot of players selected previously in the Rule 5 were selected under old rules. The extra year of eligibility has really gutted the usefulness of the Rule 5 draft.
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Agreed. Good post. We may have some real talent exposed to the rule 5 draft next year.
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Interesting points but I can see at least 8 open spots on the 40 man roster after the season. Also, some of these guys would have no shot at being selected.
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At least 9 of the names on the list, you would have to beg someone to take them off your hands.
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Hewitt, Mattair, Overbeck, Sampson, Susdorf, Bolsenboek pretty much do it this year or they’re gone.
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Wait What? I thought if you were 18+ when you signed your contract then you had 4 years before you were rule V eligible. That means that those guys from the 2008 draft would have until Dec. of 2012.
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I could see either Gillies or James traded. Both are similar players with great speed at a key position. Gose was a high value player but somewhat redundant and he was traded. Phils should not want to hurt their depth but I think Valle is irreplaceable and Aumont will not fetch the price the Phils will want. Castro could be useful to a major league team as could some of the relievers.
I guess I could see an AL team using Hewitt as a defensive replacement / runner for a season but if he really cannot hit is it worth it to that team? (He may be a multiple Rule5 drafted guy.)
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Hewitt’s not even that fast a runner. He’s a one tool player, plus power. He can’t play the middle of the diamond. I don’t think a team would give him a serious look.
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Rather than comment I will make my own post.
Rizzotti is #1 make or break for me. I certainly believe he will regress and I think many ranked him low in the Top30 because of this expectation. However, I think he still has some projectionm and if he can hit like he did at Reading I think he becomes a useful power hitter with good OBP. If he is just decent (.270 20HR in full season), then for me he becomes a AAAA guy and might have a Sept pinch hitters chance at best.
#2 for me is Domingo Santana. I already ranked him lower than most since I think he may never put it together, but certainly concede he is super young for professional baseball. Until he is exposed to Rule 5 the Phils will do what they can to realize his potential but if he does not demonstrate power and still hits .200 I will drop him out of the Top30.
Maybe the 3rd guy from the Top30 for me would be Colby Shreve. He is now getting old for level but did not pitch for some of those years so he should get a pass for that. If he does not realize mid-90s and get back to his previous level I think I will be looking at Joe Savery type pitcher (great talent prior to injury but just not enough afterwards). A down year and he moves to the bullpen as ‘just a guy’, and good year and his recovery may be a success and he is still a bonafide talent.
Anyone facing Rule5 or in last year of options is in a make or break year as far as the Phillies are concerned, since they will lose control of those players. I guess some of the fringe 40-man guys also need good seasons but most of them are not really prospects or only have one more option year anyway.
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Inch and Sasaki.
Aumont.
Collier.
I think Galvis and Santana can survive an off-year. Hewitt is already gone.
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Agree on all but Aumont. He’ll get another year.
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Another poor year for Aumont and he will be traded for a bucket of balls to avoid further embarrassment .
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Collier would get another year and maybe more. D’arby Myers is still in the organization. He was drafted at 17.
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B in DC
This should answer your questions on optioning Mathieson.
The Phillies have one option left on Scott Mathieson. The Phillies used options on him only in 2006 and 2010. However in order to send him down to AAA he must clear “Optional waivers”. “Optional waivers” are required of all players who made their first appearance in the major leagues more than 3 years from when the team wants to option the player to the minor leagues. Mathieson made his major league debut on June 17, 2006. Mathieson is not the only Phillie that needs to clear “optional waivers” to be sent to the minors. Mike Zagurski needs to clear this type of waivers to be sent to the minors also.
There are 3 waiver periods during the active season:
Feb 16 to May 3
May 4 to July 31
and Aug 1 to Sept 30
Mathieson would have to clear at least once if he is to be sent to the minors. If he clears once in a waiver period, he called up and sent down as much as they want within that period. If they want to send him down in another period, he would again have to clear within the new period. So potentially he might have to clear 3 times.
The following is what I wrote and posted when Mathieson was DFA last year. It goes into more details on how waivers, DFA and options work.
“Recently, the Phillies asked for waivers and designated for assignment (DFA) Scott Mathieson. This is causing much concern with the Philly fans that the Phillies would lose Mathieson to another club. The people who are exhibiting this concern clearly do not fully understand how waivers, options and designating a player for assignment work. There was about as much chance of losing Mathieson to another club on waivers as there will be to lose Chase Utley when the Phillies ask for waivers on him in early August (more in this latter).
What is occurring with Mathieson is standard operating practice for players that are more than three years removed from their major league debut. Major League rules require that those players clear optional waivers before they can be sent to the minors.
First you must understand that there are 5 types of waivers. The 5 types of waivers are general waivers, release waivers, outright waivers, trade waivers and optional waivers. General waivers, release waivers and outright waivers are not recallable while trade waivers and optional waivers are. Once a player is put on general or release waivers that player is lost if any other club claims him. A player put on trade or optional waivers can have the waiver recalled if another team put in a claim. 99.9% of the time no claims are made on trade or optional waivers. Trade waiver are used to make player available for trade while optional waiver are use to option player to the minors if they are more than three years removed for when they made their major league debut.
When a player is called up and is eligible for optional waivers the team usually asks for optional waivers after 24-hrs of the call up in order to be able to send the player down whenever they want in that waiver period without having to wait for the player to clear optional waivers. I might add that when the club asks for optional waivers there is no immediate intention of sending that player down. In general 99.9% of the time the person put on optional waivers clears waivers. Waivers usually take 3 to 4 business days to clear. If he clears waivers he will be added back to the 40-man roster and optioned back to the minors. If a person does not clear then the team has the option of adding that person back to the 40-man and designate someone else for assignment.
Mathieson was called up around noon on June 17. The Phillies probably asked for optional waivers on him about noon on June 18. Latter on June 18, Ruiz was hurt in the night game. Because the waivers on Mathieson had not yet cleared since it will take 3 to 4 business days (Monday thru Friday). The Phillies then needed to designate Mathieson for assignment in order to open a roster space and allow time for his optional waivers to clear. Designating a person for assignment is a temporary holding area and a quick way to remove him from the 40-man roster to clear a spot for another person. The person designated for assignment continues to get paid and earns major league service time while he is on it. A person designated for assignment can remain on it for up to 10 days at that point he must be added back to the 40-man roster, traded, or released. It was designed to be use with waivers so that it gives the team time to allow for a person to clear waivers. Many people react to the Designate for Assignment for Mathieson because they think that it is used only to release or trade a person. This is not true although probably 75 to 80 % of the time it is used that way.
The only way the Phillies could possibly lose Mathieson is if someone puts a claim for him (99.9% unlikely) and the Phillies determine that he has less value than someone like Quintin Berry or Brian Bocock and then they ask for general waivers on him. I should point out that once a person is call back from optional waivers when claimed then he would need to clear general waivers (none recallable) within that waiver period in order to be sent to the minors. Since the Phillies only need the roster spot for backup catcher Sardinha for a couple of days, the Phillies will probably reinstate Mathieson when Ruiz is ok’d to play and designate Sardinha for assignment.
Earlier, I indicated that the Phillies will probably ask waivers on Chase Utley in early August. Most Philly fans will be surprised to learn that the Phillies probably will be asking waivers on Halladay, Hamels, Utley and Howard in early August and even more surprising is that they all will probably clear. The waivers that we are talking about are trade waivers.
Virtually all players on the 40-man roster except for player with no trade contracts and 5/10 year player are put on trade waivers in early August of every year. This is done because in order to be ready to trade players before the trade deadline. Players must have to cleared trade waivers during that waiver period in order to be eligible to be traded. Even players that the team has no intention of trading are offered on waivers in order to mask the players they really want to trade. Just like optional waivers 99.9% of the players offered for trade waivers clear. August 1 opens the new waiver period that controls the critical late August trading period. Starting August 1, teams can put up to 7 players a day on the trade waiver list so by August 5 or August 6 virtually all the players on their 40-man roster could have been put on trade waivers. Teams can only make one claim per day and the fact that teams do not want to step on other’s toes so the others do not step on theirs so 99.9% of the players put on these waivers clear. If a player does not clear then the team recalls that waiver and that player can not be put on trade waivers again in that waiver period nor can he be traded.”
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This is such a good explanation that I suggest it be put on some permanent part of the website because I often struggle to recall exactly how these things work.
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After I read this five times, I might get it. I had never heard the three waiver period described before. So if Mathieson doesn’t break camp with the team, and clears optional waivers, which he will, they can recall and send him back through May 3. They would have to do the same two more times throughout the year in the other periods, but since he is still in an option year, it’s all pretty much moot. I imagine Zagurski is in the exact same situation. He’s been optioned twice, (last year he obviously cleared optional waivers, we just didn’t hear about it because it makes no noise unless someone is later DFA).
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You should note that there are actually 4 waiver periods during the year but the 4th period is entirely during the off-season. The reason I did not list that period above was because it has no effect on in-season transactions.
Mathieson also cleared “optional waivers” out of spring training in 2010 but there was no “noise” at that time because his roster spot was not immediately needed.
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Oh, and thanks by the way, for explaining the whole thing. Really helpful to me to understand better how the FO has to manage rosters.
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To show an example of the waiver periods, in 2007 Clay Condrey was sent to the minors 4 times but he only had to clear waivers 2 times. This was because the other 2 times where in a waiver period that he already had cleared.
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NEPA: Outstanding explanation.
Just a question: Is a guy like Mathieson the 0.1% exception to the rule? He is relatively young, not a ton of miles, throws really hard, some team might think this is not the run of the mill guy going thru optional waivers. He could be my closer in two years. Then Phils are forced to recall waivers on him, might have a 40-man problem, even might be forced to trade Mathieson to the claiming team or another team to solve the roster problem?
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Every year is a “make or break” year for prospects.
Every year.
None of them have guaranteed contracts. Have a bad year and you wil never be looked at the same again.
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Obviously we’re using different definitions of “make or break.” Rather than engaging in a large definitional back and forth, let me just focus on one name – Aumont.
I don’t think it’s make or break for Aumont in the sense that he is gone if he has another poor season. But he does drop off the prospect radar with another season as poor as 2010. However, I think it’s unlikely that he’ll have a seson that bad, if only because he’ll be much more likely to succeed in a relief role. Now, his value is obviously less in such a role, but I’ll predict that Aumont almost certainly will have what is percieved to a “comeback” year (barring injury).
I do think Jumpin also has a point – most minor leaguers who go on to real major league success usually advance pretty smoothly through the system. Injury years aside*, minor league players who regress or even fail to progress in even a single season tend to see their stock lowered dramatically. Look at Aumont last year.
*And even there, obviously many a minor league career has been derailed by injury.
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Good points, larrym. In some cases you even see players like Dom Brown or Ryan Howard or others who blossom in the high minors and their star potential begins to shine after nice but not great seasons in lower minors. That is one of the best indicators of major league success, doing better at higher levels. Steady climbing and maintaining performance is kind of an indicator of a decent major leaguer but not a star. Just a general thought, does not apply 100% or in all cases.
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And how do you view DeFratus who has improved at every level?
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Same as others. Great indicator that he will be an effective, perhaps standout major leaguer. No guarantee ever though, but he’s a good bet to be a solid reliever, maybe Madson-like or better. This year at AAA and any cup of coffee he gets with Phils will tell us a whole lot. I see Mathieson as more likely to make the team out of ST, over DeFratus, if both have good springs. But who knows how it actually plays out.
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Too many on this site go for the year to year stats but ignore the pattern . Its like knowing the words but not reading the story.
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Here’s the thing nowheels. You’re right, IMO, about a guy like De Fratus. But in other cases – and yes, I’m talking about Rizzotti – we see someone who hasn’t made fundemental progress – he is still striking out/walking/hitting home runs at more or less the same level – but had a truely ridiculous and unsustainable BABIP.
I think that by and large the people who comment here are well aware that a pattern of improvement from year to year in the minors is indicative of likely major league success. But in some cases, and Rizzotti is a big example, the improvement is at least partially an illusion of one type or another.
As I said before, the main reason that people underate De Fratus (and they do) isn’t a failure to see a pattern of growth, but an exagerated belief in the low value of relief pitchers.
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If anything DeFratus is over rated on this site because he has been hyped and written about so much the last three years. His name is in everyones consciousness.
Many players get over-rated from the readers when pp likes them. Savery hasn’t done anything in 4 seasons, yet this is the 1st year he wasn’t voted into the top 20. Mattair and D’arby Myers are still getting love from some. PP has great insight and knowledge, so I guess it is natural to love everyone he loves.
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Mike,
I think some people on the site over-rate him, and some under-rate him. He is a polarizing player, true. But he’s a guy who stuck out almost 10 per 9 ip last year, doesn’t give up home runs, was age appropriate for his league, doesn’t walk a lot of people, throws hard with good command and control – what’s not to like?
Yes, he is a reliever. But if he closes – and it looks like the Phillies are grooming him for that role – even going by WAR (which doesn’t take leverage in to account, nor does it account for the fact that the market over values closers but you need one regardless), an average closer is worth about 2 WAR which is about what a number 3 starter is worth. A number 3 starter as close to the majors as De Fratus is would be ranked higher than De Fratus by the fans here. Heck, look at Worley, more likely a 4 or 5 and ranked 7th by the readers here. I’d say De Fratus has a higher ceiling than Worley, even taking into account the fact that De Fratus is a reliever amd Worley may start. And De Fratus is almost as close to the majors as Worley.
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larrym: I take your point. With Rizzotti I would state it differently. He is a higher risk than a guy like DeFratus, who has been consistent and gone from good to outstanding.
Rizzotti’s success came from nowhere. He was OK (org filler) and then came on strong. We all know the story: he did some killer workout regimen and overhauled his body big time. There is risk he will revert, but at least a chance he has become a permanent masher.
I would also state the power question differently for him. I don’t have any doubt the guy has solid power. By anecdotal accounts he can hit the ball a long, long way. He is just tapping into it now in the games. Now, is he a 40 or even 30 HR guy? Maybe not, but given a DH or 1B job somewhere, he looks like a guy who will hit 20 to 30 eventually, maybe a few more in one career year. That seems to be an reasonable power profile. Maybe you’re thinking if he is not 35 HR plus, he is not worth a lot. I would disagree. a .285 BA, .350+ OBP, 25 HR guy has very good value, IMO.
What clouds the pic, as we all know, is his fielding. If he becomes a passable fielder, if he stays in awesome shape, and if he keeps winning the pitcher-hitter battles (plate discipline), he will have a decent career, given opportunity.
Lots of risk with all this ifs, but would not surprise to see him move towards that. A good reason to pull for him.
OTTH, if he comes into ST out of shape and does not work on his fielding, can’t see a reason to stay loyal to him.
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“What’s not to like”
Never said I don’t like the player, but the assumption that he will be a closer is premature, IMO. His calling card for the last few years was control and a plus fastball that he keeps low. From my perspective, a closer has two plus-plus pitches. I never heard DeFratus described as having the plus breaking ball accept on this site. DeFratus’ repertoire of command and control make him a sure bet to become a major league pitcher, but it doesn’t necessarily describe a closer.
As for Vance Worley being rated 7, justifying DeFratus ranking. Worley is rated too high also, but he is a starter and he has already pitched almost 20x more AA and AAA innings than DeFratus.
I don’t dislike DeFratus at all, but I would not rate a relief pitcher (without dominating secondary stuff) who has 20 AA innings, in the top ten of supposedly the 5th best system.
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DD,
Well that’s the optimistic but still within the bounds of reality version. I don’t buy your power projections; I think 15-20 HR is a more realistic upside. Couple that with a .285 BA and .350 OBP (reasonable), and poor defense at 1B … that could lead to a brief career as a regular for a non-contender, but no more than that.
Does last year increase the chances that he’ll have even that sort of career? Probably so, but only in the sense that it may increase the chance that he’ll get a shot. You say he “did some killer workout regimen and overhauled his body big time.” Did that manifest itself in improved performance? I’d argue no. Power was essentially the same, K% was the same, BB% was the same. All he did was increase his BABIP by an insane amount. That explains VIRTUALLY ALL of his improved performance.
Could some of that improvement be meaningful/real? Maybe. But everything we know about how players develop points the other way. Players who increase their BABIP one year almost always regress the next year. NO PLAYER in modern Major league history has been able to maintain a BABIP even close to Rizzotti’s figure from last year. And the few players who have come sort of close have been speedy (lots of infield hits) extreme line drive hitters. Rizz may be a line drive hitter (even there, will he maintain last year’s line drive percentage? Questionable at best) but he is not an extreme one, and is not fast.
I mean, I hope I am wrong, but I don’t think I am.
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You like to see players who improve every single year. But players struggle. Big league players have down years, the same is true of minor league players. Rob Neyer once posed this example. He was asked about two prospects in the Cardinals system after the 1990 season. Both were 23 years old in AAA.
RL: .260/.362/.410, 10 HRs, 30 SBs
BG: .295/.388/.397, 3 HRs, 45 SBs
Those are Ray Lankford and Bernard Gilkey. Gilkey had maintained his production from the previous year, but Lankford lost 100 points off his OPS. Neyer assumed that Gilkey was the better prospect, but actually Lankford was the better prospect because he had the track record.
You get so much variance from year to year that you really have to take 2-3 years into account. Especially when looking at batting average, which is so volitale in small samples.
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That was me above.
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These are my make or break prospects (meaning with a bad year, they can possibly be out of a job and with a good year, they could become major league players):
Drew Carpenter (will he ever be a decent major league starter?)
Drew Naylor (the phils see something in him or he wouldn’t be on the 40 man roster)
Matt Rizzotti (can he have another monster year?)
Harold Garcia (impressive last year but will he ever be successful in the majors?)
Joe Savery (he couldn’t pitch, maybe he can hit)
Austin Hyatt (will turn 25 in May and will most likely start in AA)
B.J. Rosenberg (had an amazing 2009 but struggled last year due to injuries)
Cody Overbeck (he finished last year strong, can he keep it up?)
Tyson Gillies (he has the ability but will he be able to stay healthy on and off the field?)
Phillippe Aumont (will he finally become the top prospect traded for Cliff Lee?)
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Domingo Santana is Alot older then 18
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Two names I have not seen mentioned are Tyler Cloyd and Jacob Diekman. At one time Cloyd had a great BB/SO ratio; then at Clearwater he seemed to plateau. The Phillies moved him up to Reading late in 2010. I would say that he must do something this year. Reading has fewer pitching prospects than the leagues below them so he may be able to pitch at the AA level this tear. This is probably his make or break year. Jacob Diekman changed his delivery and began to get outs. They worked with him in the Fall and he went to AFL where he bombed. I imagine that they will try him at Reading and if he does not improve or plateaus, the Phillies will not retain him. Jim Murphy is another player that has probably exhausted his opportunity. Darren Ruf has passed him as a prospect. This will be a make or break year for him. I have great respect for players who are good enough to play in the minor leagues. I feel for them when they struggle. I remember Quintin Berry’s blog about making the grade and feeling sad for those who did not make the grade; then we felt sad for him the next year when he did not make it. There is a human side to all this competition. Good luck to those whose season is a breaking point for them. I hope they do well in other pursuits.
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Fyi: Baseball America prospect guide is down to $16 on Amazon.
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Just a thought, sorry if its already been mentioned but I haven’t read the comments here for a couple of days.
Have we written off Galvis too soon?
His AA average improved from .197 to .233, his AA OBP went from .222 to .276 (30 walks up from 13 across three levels in 09) his AA OPS is up to .586 from .468
if he shows similar improvement this year what would everyone think of him? Its not completely unfeasible given his age
as a SS he doesn’t need to be putting up a .800 OPS so there might be some (slim) hope for him yet. I won’t be holding my breath waiting for him to take over from Jimmy but I’ll be keeping an eye on him just in case
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I think about a .660 OPS in the majors would be enough for him to be a starting SS. At his age, if he can manage that .660 OPS at Reading, I guess he has a fair chance of doing so in the majors.
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