Hardball Times Top 10 Prospects

The Harball Times published its Phillies Top 10 today–usually a good source of major league info, but the inclusion of Villar on this list makes detracts from credibility on the minors side (as does the inclusion of Worley as a Top 10).  There are brief writeups on each guy on the site.

  1. Domonic Brown
  2. Jonathan Singleton
  3. Jarred Cosart
  4. Trevor May
  5. Brody Colvin
  6. Vance Worley
  7. Sebastian Valle
  8. J.C. Ramirez
  9. Jesse Biddle
  10. Domingo Santana

(Note:  THT corrected the list and removed Jonathan Villar–everyone slotted up one and Santana was added.)

39 thoughts on “Hardball Times Top 10 Prospects

  1. I left a message with the THT group to fix the Villar mistake. In defense of Hagen’s choice with Worley, the focus of the top prospect series is to highlight the top 10 prospects in each system for fantasy purposes. As such Worley isn’t the worst choice at #6 given his proximity to a big league job and the likelihood he could help out when used situationally or in a deep league.

    I’ve recommended Jiwan James, Tyson Gillies, or Domingo Santana to move onto the list in place of Villar.

  2. BA publishes their list on Monday.

    My own top 10 as posted on Twitter. Brown, Singleton, Cosart, Colvin, May, Valle, James, Biddle, Hernandez, Santana

  3. I also emailed the author on Villar. At first I thought the list was solely for fantasy purposes, but the inclusion of low-level guys like Biddle ran counter to that.

    On Worley, I guess the Top 10 isn’t crazy given the drop in talent after the first five–seems like the next ten are fairly interchangeable and he is seemingly major league ready. I was just surprised to see him since these types of lists usually go heavy on upside and Worley seems like more of a “what you see is what you get” type (although one who should be able to provide, at a minimum, cheap help for the next few years).

  4. My own list is close to yours Alan. I still like Gillies enough to place him between James and Biddle at #8. I like what I’ve seen of him but don’t know what to make of that mess last summer. The negative drug test taken a few hours after his arrest makes me feel a little bit better though.

    I haven’t firmly decided on who #10 is. That’s around where a lot of guys become differentiated by very subtle things.

  5. I was down to Gillies and Santana for #10. I took Santana because though his season was seen as a step back, his production as a 17 year old at Williamsport was still very good.

  6. Hopefully Phillippe Aumont can improve his stock next year. I think his stats last year were comparable to those of John Lackey when he was in A ball.

  7. 1. Domonic Brown
    2. Jonathan Singleton
    3. Jarred Cosart
    4. Brody Colvin
    5. Trevor May
    6. Sebastian Valle
    7. J.C. Ramirez
    8. Jesse Biddle
    9. Domingo Santana
    10. Vance Worley

    What is interesting to me about this year is so many overflowing in the 20-30 Range, (20 for these 10 slots) like Zach Collier, etc, etc, etc. who could become top 20s with a solid year this year.

  8. The list itself is not so bad, but I think the overall analysis and level of knowledge of these players and the system as a whole is pretty wretched. There are at least 20-30 people who visit this site regularly who could have provided a much better write-up that what the HBT gave us.

    Anybody who truly understands this system knows that it is knee-deep in projectable pitching talent. Now, all of those players will not make it, but there’s enough volume there that we will get a good dose.

    Also, I question many of the assessments. Valle didn’t progress as a catcher? That’s directly contrary to everything we read and heard this year. Worley’s stuff is pedestrian? The pitcher I saw at the end of the year did NOT have pedestrian stuff – he had a whole assortment of pitches that moved and over which he had good command and he regularly threw in the low to mid 90s – that’s not average; that’s the stuff of a possible #3 or 4 starter on a good team. So, on the whole, I thought their assessments were pretty useless and, in many cases, even wrong and misleading.

  9. For today I like:
    Brown, Colvin, Singleton, Cosart, May, Valle, Biddle, Bastardo, Worley, Altherr. But the next 15 are an interesting bunch as well and could each deserve that 10th spot.

  10. I love DeFratus, but I can’t see a relief pitcher deserving of a top ten slot in a strong farm system.

  11. Worls seems too Kyle Kendricky to me and I don’t think anyone thinks he belongs in any top 10. I know Mathieson is getting older but I’d swap Vance for him purely because hes gotta be such an animal to still want to be out there after all his injuries.

  12. for now…

  13. I see a future closer’s value around that of a mid-rotation starter, so if one can make the list so can the another.

  14. While the thoughts of Brown’s demise may be exaggerated, his poor play between MLB and winter league have somewhat closed the gap between him and Singleton. If brown was a 9.5 (from 1-10), I’d give Singleton a 9.25… whereas perhaps at the all star break last year it was 9.8 to 9…. Just a thought but would anyone actually have the balls to rank singleton over brown?

  15. No, Brown’s much more developed than Singleton right now although I’m sure plenty of scouts will agree that Singleton now has the higher ceiling.

  16. I don’t like any top list wth Ramirez on it. As for Brown vs Singleton, the gap is not close at this point. Singeleton struggled terribly the second half of the season at A ball while Dom struggled while sitting and not playing in the majors. i also agree with Defratus because he’s a potential major league closer while Matheson doesn’t look to be.
    My list: 1)Brown, 2)Singleton, 3)Colvin, 4)Cosart, 5)May, 6)Biddle, 7)Valle, 8)Worley, 9)Pettibone, 10)Defratus, 11) Gillies, 12)Garcia, 13)James, 14) Altherr, 15)Santana, 16)Julio Rodriquez, 17)Cesar Hernandez, 18)Hyatt, and 20)Shreve.
    I’m just not as high on Santana as everyone else. I need to see a bit more improvement form the young kid. No right or wrong….

  17. Yeah and I’m aware of the second half issues singleton had, but I think BradJ said it best, singleton might have a higher upside… If brown gets assigned to AAA (which I think he will) and doesn’t earn (as in destroys AAA pitching) a call up by June/July, I will be extremely disappointed and may downgrade him with a great half year from anyone else in our top 3/4

  18. I don’t think Singleton has higher upside than Brown. Brown is a raw tools guy who shows an increasing ability to turn those tools into baseball skills. He’s a decent bet to be a perpetual 20/20 guy and possibly a 30/20 guy. I like that better than a good hitting 1B who might get by playing LF.

  19. While I like Singleton, moving him past Brown is ridiculous at this point. Dom has speed,power,great arm and massive upside.
    I believe he is the victim of unrealistic expectations. He is a great athlete who is still learning while performing at a very high level. The Winter league thing is totally meaningless.

  20. Why dont we wait till Singleton gets out of Low A ball before we break out the annointing oil. The list of guys that dominated in the Sally League is long and undistinguished.

    Not to bash Singleton at all as he’s a great prospect but dont toss him up there to #1 quite yet.

  21. Agreed, specifically we need to see how Singleton adjusts to the outfield. The comments I heard were very positive but that could just be organizational spin. We’ll have a better idea if he has a future in the OF once scouts from other orgs are commenting. If he sticks in the OF, he’s a much more valuable prospect.

    As an aside, when Dom Brown was compared to Darryl Strawberry, everybody stumbled over each refuting that statement. I’ve seen Singleton’s hitting ability compared to Manny Ramirez and haven’t heard anyone utter a word to the contrary. Is that because he’s still relatively off the radar or because the comp is valid? I barely was alive when Ramirez was a prospect so I can only compare the stats.

  22. I haven’t seen a valid Singleton/Ramirez comp. Actually I don’t recall hearing Singleton consistently compared to any established player.

  23. I feel like I read it in a BA article or one of the “scouts comments” in a Kevin Goldstein/John Perrotto article on BPro. The comment read something like “best pure hitting ability I’ve seen since Manny Ramirez.”

  24. I also heard the Singleton/Ramirez comparison. It wasn’t actually a comparison of them as players though. Like Brad Johnson said above the comment was that Singleton was the best 18 year old hitting prospect that this scout had seen since Manny Ramirez.

    I heard Jayson Stark relay this story on 97.5 during the Mike Missanelli show…

  25. My list is:

    1. Brown- Stumbled at the MLB level, but has all the tools to be great. We all know the Strawberry comp and I will say to naysayers dont panic.
    2. Singleton- Waiting for more power, but everything else has been great. Heard good things about him playing LF. He has a strong arm from reports I read as well. And for a 1B/LF he runs well.
    3. Cosart- Needs more work and to stay healthy. He has probably the best stuff of any pitcher. I hope he can put in 100+ innings this year.
    4. May- If he controls his command will be a top pitching prospect in a year. The way he strikes batters out and his size he could have Ace ability. He just needs to keep his control.
    5. Colvin- I would like to see more K’s, but was a workhorse his first full year. Also loved his rise in velocity during the year.
    6. Valle- Low OBP, but for a 19/20 year old to have power like that from the catcher position is hard to ignore.
    7. Gillies- He had a bad year, but he was in a new league and battled injuries. He has a good eye, makes good contact, plays great defense, and is a great base runner. He has too many tools to keep out of the top 10.
    8. Biddle- Very good first year and had a promotion. He has great stuff and a great frame. Already the best LH pitcher in our system. Could be the Ace of Lakewood’s staff next year.
    9. Pettibone- He put in a lot of work last year. His peripherals werent that great, but his stuff got stronger as the year went on. I saw he was at mid 90’s late in the year on his sinking fastball. He also has a nice frame as well. I expect him to have a breakout year this year.
    10. Vance Worley- He doesnt have a high ceiling, but has 4 solid pitches and can develop into a solid number 3. He should be the 5th starter this year.
    11. DeFratus- IMO Major League ready. He can wait a year and be our closer when Lidge leaves. I would have him higher, but I dont value relievers as high as others.
    12. Altherr- Has a similar build to Brown. Also has similar production to what Brown did at this level. This upcoming year at Lakewood could be very telling for him.
    13. Santana- I just cant simply ignore his Rookie Ball year. I also cant ignore the fact he takes a lot of walks for a 16 and 17 year old. His contact rate will rise. When that happens look out. Could climb fast.
    14. Hernandez- Solid fielding 2B with a typical offensive output for a 2B. IMO has slightly more upside than Garcia.
    15. Garcia- More ready than Hernandez, but like I said Hernandez has a little more upside.
    16. Hyatt- I believe at best he is a number 3 pitcher, but he could be a 2 inning reliever at the MLB level. He had high K rates, but he is a little older than his competition.
    17. Dugan- I know this wont be a popular pick, but I like what I saw last year. He had minimal playing time compared to others, but raked rookie ball and was doing well at short season before getting hurt. I also love his size and love the fact he does work counts at a young age.
    18. Aumont- Still has nasty stuff. I think could end up being a reliever, but at 6’7″ he has the frame to be a good starter. He had an off year last year. I think this year is a huge year for his development. If he isnt at least in Double A at some point getting those hitters out. Then he needs to be a closer or reliever.
    19. Rodriguez- He did very well at the lower levels. But I take his stuff with a grain of salt. Until I see him do some damage in the upper levels, then I do believe the reports that he will struggle to get hitters out with his stuff as he moves up.
    20. Collier- I just think this guy had too much upside to keep off the list. It was said he would take a few years to start hitting and catching up to his other tools, but was injured.

    As you can see I judge off of upside. I like what Castro and James have done, but I think they are basically tapped out. I think next year we could see one of Walter, Musser, or Garner make some noise. Also Cameron Rupp I think has more ability than what he showed last year.

  26. 1. Brown – might not start off in Philly but will end 2011 there as starting rf
    2. Singelton – only 19 yrs old – great plate discipline – will be interesting with him in outfield
    3. Colvin – work horse
    4. Cosart – could flip with Colvin – need to limit his innings
    5. May – hopefully can handle Clearwater better this time – could end up at Reading
    6. Valle – best catcher in the system – could be ready when Chooch is done
    7. Gillies – thinks he has a comeback year
    8. Biddle – Maybe grows into a “Hamels type”
    9. Worley – Will get a good shot at #5 spot. If not #1 pitcher at LHV
    10. DeFratus – should get the call up in 2011 and could be future closer
    11. James – had a strong year in 2010 -could be future cf (or Gillies) when Victorino leaves.
    12. Santana – still has a long way to go but has too much potential
    13. Pettibone – had strong season in 2010 – may have been top pitcher at end of season for Lakewood
    14. Altherr – another “potential player” who has good tools
    15. Hyatt – have to like his strike out numbers

  27. It the list is going 17 deep, as at least one is, I think it’s got to include Aumont
    Brown, Singleton, Colvin, Cosart, May, Valley, Biddle, DeFratus, Gillies, Santana, Worley, James, Hernandez, Garcia, Ramirez, Pettibone, Hyatt, Shreve,Altherr, Dugan, Castro
    I think that’s our top 20 guys. Order on the second ten is very iffy and depends upon how highly your rate level in the system and how much you discount for injury. I put 21, because I was torn between Dugan and Castro. If I stopped at 20, I’d drop Castro but he’s very close.

  28. Having said that, I see I missed Aumont going down my list. He’s about 15 for me. Awfully dumb for this far into the day. I guess I should also include Rodriguez, so both Dugan and Altherr exit my top 20.

  29. Kphilly- “8. Biddle – Maybe grows into a “Hamels type””

    I think he has the ability to be a top end of the rotation guy, but I think Biddle reminds me of a guy who can give you like 230 innings a year. He has such a big build. I just think his stuff translates more to a different style of pitcher than Hamels. But I do see your point. To me Biddle reminds me of a C.C. Sabathia style of pitcher, but I dont think Biddle would ever reach Sabathia’s level. I hope I am wrong though.

  30. For what it’s worth, Bob Brookover of the Inquirer made a top-10 list today:

    1. Domonic Brown
    2. Jonathan Singleton
    3. Jarred Cosart
    4. Vance Worley
    5. Justin DeFratus
    6. Sebastian Valle
    7. Jesse Biddle
    8. Brody Colvin
    9. Matt Rizzotti
    10. Trevor May

    For a most immediate impact, I’m most intrigued by Worley. I think his upside in ’11 is working into the fourth starter role (yes, ahead of Blanton), winning 12-13 games with a high 3 ERA.

  31. Brookover’s list makes almost no sense to me at all. His has no obvious ratio of valuation of lower level/ high upside v.s. higher level/low upside players. It’s like he chose Brown to be #1 by default, and then with the other 9 he picked names out of a hat.

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