5 Phillies on the BA SAL Top 20

Top Prospect Lists

Quite a haul. Head over to Baseball America to read the scouting reports. Don’t paste them here, that’s illegal. If someone has access and wants to share a few tidbits (and I stress a few), then go for it, but don’t copy/paste. Thanks.

1. Jon Singleton, 1B
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
7. Jarred Cosart, RHP
8. Jonathan Villar, SS (yeah yeah, I know, just posting for reference)
11. Trevor May, RHP
19. Sebastian Valle, C

Discuss!

54 thoughts on “5 Phillies on the BA SAL Top 20”

  1. Colvin over Cosart is high praise. I don’t have a lot of knowledge on Sally League prospects so the only rankings of concern are the Phillies relative to each other. That’s about where I’d rank them with maybe Cosart over Colvin. Singleton being a hitting prospect is less of an injury risk so I agree with him at #1.

    Pretty apparent BA’s Top 5 for the Phillies right now is Brown, Singleton, Colvin, Cosart, May. The first four probably make the top 100.

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  2. I’ll share a little bit:

    Singleton: middle of the line-up hitter; potential and total package are what’s attractive; polished hitter; makes great adjustments; can develop significant power

    Colvin: part of loaded rotation; ranked highest due to workhorse frame; late movement of pitches is a plus; sits 93-95 can dial up in time of need to 97; some scout thinks he profiles as a reliever

    Cosart: hardest thrower; delivery has much effort; injury concerns, no full seasons pitched; excellent command;

    May: plenty of sink and armside run; 91-94 FB; curve and change project to be above average; Parent could see him double jumping (I say no way)

    Valle: suprise here, says he stands out defensively; solid catch/throw skills; catchers build; hitting needs a lot of work, too pull happy

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  3. Chat highlight

    No Jiman James – didn’t think people took enough into account that he was a pitcher to start; wouldn’t be surprised to see him take off in 2011

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  4. Brief synopses from the subscriber site:

    Singleton–as polished a hitter as you’ll see for his age
    Colvin–odd mix of comments–durable, workhorse, three pitches, but one scout who thinks he profiles as a releiver
    Cosart–great command, needs to improve mechanics
    Villar–still very high on defense, offense will make or break his road to the bigs
    May–Mark Parent suggests a double-jump. Interesting given today’s news that Parent may get either the AAA or AA jon bext year.
    Valle–valued more for defense than offense (his approach “regressed”)

    From the chat: James was close to the cut, but the moderator hinted that managers he talked to didn’t realize he was drafted as a pitcher and the moderator says he wouldn’t be surprised to see James “take off” next year.

    A reader asked if Valle ends up at 3B, and the moderator again pointed to his defense as a strength and that he has as good a chance as anyone in the SAL to be a starting catcher at higher levels.

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  7. I apologize–the comment on Valle’s offense was based on his two months in the SAL last year. That’s what I get for trying to comment surreptitiously while at work.

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  8. Valle has some pretty bad mechanics but all the tools to be really good. My personal feeling is, with time, he will be a decent hitter with well above average power.

    I really hope the Phillies are eventually able to have Mark Parent with the big club. I really like the way he coaches.

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  10. I think a lot of people don’t realize how hard it is to play half your games at First Energy Park, the power numbers for Valle/Singleton take a hit because of that home field.

    Also I wouldn’t worry about the Cosart rating, I think it’s clear they’re main reason for him being so low is his lack of innings/durability this year. I imagine if he pitched a full season he’d probably be right above Colvin.

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  12. As expected, the Phillies have quite a group in the SAL.
    Valle getting good grades as a defensive catcher is awesome news. Even if his approach does not get much better, a power hitting threat a catcher is better than a defensive only catcher.
    May is still very tough for me to evaluate. No command but good enough stuff to K a bunch of A+ hitters. Gets demoted and essentially repeats a level he already dominated. Should he get credit for that? It would seem ridiculous to double jump him but his stuff is probably good enough for AA right now. It is just can he command it. I still think his profile is not much better than Aumont whose command issues & demotion have significantly hurt his prospect status.
    Colvin appears to have less risk than Cosart due to better established secondary pitches and less injury risk. If anything, I’d think Cosart would profile more as a reliever.
    For Cosart, it is rare that you hear a prospect with good command but needing to work on mechanics. Isn’t the normal scouting report ‘needs better mechanics to improve command’?
    Singleton is no surprise. Almost no weaknesses at the plate. Only negative is that he currently plays 1B so he better be able to mash.
    It is just incredible that with 50+ errors Villar is considered an excellent defender.
    James still has very raw plate approach but the tools are apparent. Not in Gose’s class but still catching up on lost development time.
    What about Barnes?

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  14. Rodriguez just might crack the Phillies’ top 20. How on earth does that translate into deserving the Top 20 list of the entire Sally League?

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  16. I wonder if Cosart works with someone over the winter. Since he is going to the FIL, I wonder if Doc makes a cameo to help him and other out.

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  17. Our top 30 could be contentious and exciting this year. I see guys are already lobbying and making arguments about twho is better. I haven’t seen many of these guys in person so I have to choose based on stats and some first hand accounts provided by guys on the site. Cosart, Colvin and May are all top 5 guys (In the Phil’s organization). Not too many guys would dispute that. If I look at Colvin versus May, I think May comes out on top. May’s a year older. He had a great year last year. His stats at 19 blow Colvin’s away. May moved up and struggled in CLW but mostly it was control. His Ks were there but his BBs killed him. He came back to A- and continued the dominance. The BBs went away and he was hard to hit. Colvin is going to start in CLW (I presume). I think he’ll have some problems adjusting too. It will be interesting to see the development.

    It’s hard to say anything but nice things about JRod. Take a look at the results. He was #1 in the Phil’s organization in K’s per 9 innings. He had 1.7 more K’s per 9 than May did in Lakewood. He’s the youngest of the Lakewood 7 (Cosart, May, Colvin, Pettibone, Rodriguez, Zeid & Shreve) by 2 weeks over Brody Colvin. JRod’s K/BB ratio is best of the LW-7. He’s 6th in the whole organization (Pettis, DeFratus, Rosenberg, Hyatt and Schwim are ahead of him). I wish we had a definitive MPH on his fastball but he gets guys out with whatever he has. I’d find it very hard to slot him 10 slots below any of the other guys in Lakewood. That puts him near the top 10 for me. Crazy you say… I say crazy like a fox.

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  18. I’m more surprised Pettibone gets no love more then Rodriguez. Uptick in his fastball and touching 95 in the clinching game plus he’s a ground ball pitcher. He had a tremendous 2nd half of the season and only 20 years old.

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  19. Nick – there’s a lot “love” to go around as this is, by quite a margin, the best group of pitching talent I’ve ever seen at any level for any time. It sounds like hyperbole, but Josh Zeid was lights out, throwing in the mid-high 90s and barely gets mentioned. JRod strikes out like 14 batters per 9 innings and is an afterthought, not to mention Massingham, who also throws in the high 90s, or Nick Hernandez, who was a shut down guy for part of the year. For so long, the major league team traded for pitchers – I don’t see that happening much now – there’s too much inventory. Rather, I see a lot of these players being packaged for hitting talent.

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  20. Does Colvin now make BA’s overall top 100? It would appear that way based on the ranking and his jump over Cosart.

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  21. I still like Pettibone and think that his development this year was amazing. In many other years, he could have been the ace but that team was one for the ages as we all said all year. If they all stay healthy, and that’s always a big risk with pitchers, that team may have had as many as 8 future major leaguers on the pitching staff. That obviously is unheard of. As far as James, he’s real good but not quite as good as he could be or needs to be. Hopefully, he’ll take another big step up next year. And as for Valle, its obvious that Parent pushed the need for him to be strong defensively all year. I’ll bet he focuses more on his offense next year and that might get him close to being a complete package. A major league catcher MUST be strong defensively or you’ll never get there (unless you can hit like Piazza).

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  22. Interesting to note Valle hit 19 home runs in 479 at bats, regular season and playoffs combined, while back in 02 Ryan Howard hit 19 homers too at Lakewood in 493 regular season at bats. In 01 with Lakewood Carlos Ruiz hit 4 homers in 249 at bats.

    Valle was brilliant defensively in Game Three of the Finals blocking a ball in the dirt on one pitch and then lunging for an outside pitch to save a wild pitch which would have scored a run in what turned out to a 2-1 Lakewood win. At another point in the game he threw out a runner trying to steal second. Over all his three run homer lined to left won Game Four and clinched the Championship. His pitch calling resulted in a 7 game playoff staff ERA of 1.14. This marked the third straight season he played on a championship team. He should be in Reading next year but he will not doubt be the Thresher’s starting catcher next season.

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  23. The Phils don’t have a coach on the major league staff that will replace Charlie someday, so maybe they will give some thought to using Parent at AA or AAA in coming years, and then move him to a Bench Coach role under Charlie for a year or two and transition to him when Charlie hangs em up, like Mattingly in LA.

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  24. Really wouldn’t worry about Valle. If you think back to both Lieberthal and Ruiz when they hit the majors, there were a lot of doubts about both offensively and both turned out to be good for many years. Valle has a lot of time to develop his offense…

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  25. And in Ruiz’s case, it took until he was almost 30 before he even became a ML average offensive player. It’s only been in the last couple of years where his offense has become a positive. If Valle can become a plus defender, the offensive production has plenty of time to catch-up..

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  26. Hard to find faults right now with this organization anywhere but if we want to get picky, they could really use a 3B, SS, or 2B prospect in the system that projected as a plus everyday big league player to replace Polanco at third, or Jimmy as SS and move Jimmy to 3B in a few years.

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  28. What does Rupp’s defense look like as a catcher, is he a possible 3B transition waiting to happen? That would be nice but we don’t need to create the next Todd Zeile either, the homeless cowboy.

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  29. Yes, PP. The system is completely bare of any real 3rd base prospect. Shortstop is bare above the DSL and VSL with Villar gone, though they have signed several SSs to those teams with considerable bonuses of late. Of course, should any of those get to the bigs J-Roll will be long gone.
    Though we should be able to draft a 3rd baseman in the upcoming June ’11 draft, the 3rd base vacuum will require filling before any such draftee would be ready…if at all. The same applies to the SS position.

    Given how J-Rolls’ physical condition has been for the last two seasons, it is really something that needs attention sooner than later. The option on his contract has been taken but that only goes to the end of the ’11 season. Do they re-hire him and be content with the risk that he might play only a half season? Polly gone after ’12; who then plays 3rd?

    Discontent in the hinterlands. Questions to be answered amidst the grasp for another WS ring.

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  30. I could see J Roll playing third after Polly’s contract is up, and Chase playing lf down the line a bit further. Challenge is filling the SS and 2B roles with anyone close to Jimmy and Chase will be very hard to do. However, as we currently are paying veteran pitchers a lot of money – Roy’s, Joe, Lidge, Romero, and Baez – our minor league pitching prospects could lead to a much cheaper pitching staff in the future, freeing up money to fill middle infield positions with free agent types.

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  31. Like seeing the love for Parent, the guy is from my hometown! (And yet another former catcher/manager)

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  32. If parent is a good teacher/manager I want to see him stay in the minor league system. I don’t want to see him be brought up to the bigs. IMO he can have more of an effect on the young players than he will on the older ones.

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  33. Someone mentioned in a previous discussion that 15 of the 20 prospect from BA’s NYPA league’s top 20 five year ago made it to the Major Leagues.

    16 of the 20 players from BA’s SAL list five years ago made the ML. They include Ryan Braun, Phil Hughes, Neil Walker, Blake DeWitt, Gio Gonzalez, Hunter Pence, and Yunel Escobar.

    The BA’s SAL list from 7 years ago is even more impressive with 18 of the 20 players making the ML. The list includes: Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, B.J. Upton, Hanley Ramerez, Matt Cain, Brian McCann, Fausto Carmona ( 19-6 with 2007 Cleve Indians), Jeff Francoeur and others.

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  34. Catch22-
    I was with you on Rodriguez and Hernandez, even Zeid, but Massingham is a bridge to far. He’s almost 24 and a reliever. I don’t really see him as a prospect. I’d have Pettibone, Shreve, and Way ahead of him.

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  35. The comment on Massingham was based on first hand reports from a family member who said Massingham was dominating in the game he saw him pitch and was regularly hitting the high 90s on the gun. I am generally less concerned with pitchers being “age appropriate” than I am hitters. In any event, the point of my comment was that even the guys who are fringy at Lakewood have some real ability.

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  36. I don’t think many teams, if any, have a “Just-in-time” succession plan. Two years back, the Phils had two OF prospects in Taylor and Brown. They felt they’d lose Werth and then Ibanez the next year. JIT looked like it was in place for that. But Taylor was traded and Brown is probably ready but you still need to fill the Ibanez slot. I’m not even taking into account the lineup imbalance that Brown brings. There’s no OF’er that will be ready especially if Gillies can’t overcome his tumultous year.

    I was looking at my top 30 from 2 or 3 years ago. 7 of the top 8 aren’t in the Phils organization (Carrasco, Marson, Donald, Drabek, Taylor, Happ & D’Arnaud). Knapp is also gone and he was in my 11 slot. Everyone but Taylor and D’Arnaud played in the MLs this year. You can’t complain about who these prospects brought to the organization. Could Carrasco and Happ replace Halliday and Oswalt? Could the Phils have gone to the W/S last year without Lee? The payroll would have been a heck of a lot less but the results wouldn’t be what they are.

    My point is that JIT would be idylic but it’s nearly impossible when you consider 8 position players, 5 starters and at least 2 critical bullpen arms. You draft the best available in early rounds. You take some some chances on high risk / high reward guys. And you use what you’ve got to get the guys you need. It’s also a whole lot harder getting the guys you need when you start with nothing but when you’ve been to the W/S in successive seasons and your core is mostly intact, these prospects can get you what you’re missing. This sure sounds a Rolling stones song, “You can’t always get what you want, but if you try …. you get what need.”

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  37. Good points Bellman. Who could of predicted the brain freeze of Ed Wade. Or even Lee and Halladay being available. You know I have always been a Happ guy but Oswalt has been more than expected and
    11 mil too!
    Even though Omar our best exec is gone: the Marlins are still mismanaged(profit only), Washington is too young and the Braves have no plan, it will take years before the there is a serious challange to the Phils.
    It has been unexciting how easily the Phils took it all. What a bunch of dogs in our division.

    In a couple of years hopefully there will be a changeover starting with new young blood prospects from the farm.

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  38. Well, we can sit around and call everyone else dogs, but the truth of it is that, even with their collapse, the Braves had won 90 games going into the last 3 games of the season. What has really happened is that, through patience, an expanding payroll and key acquisitions, the Phillies have improved and have become the beasts of the National League. Now, that doesn’t mean they are going to win the WS or even get there, but the Phillies are the big bad bullies of the NL and I, for one, am savoring every minute.

    The challenge, now, will be for the team to keep this up. The good news is that, this coming year, they have only one serious player issue that they must deal with and that is the extension of Werth. After that, the team is going to need to slowly, piece by piece, figure out the succession plan. Their main players are probably now mid to late career, but they are still performing at a high level and have another 2-5 good years left. Another interesting thing that has happened is that slowly, almost imperceptibly, this has become a team built as much on pitching and defense as it is built on hitting. This will allow the team and its players some breathing room as key players are replaced – many by players in the minors, but some others will, no doubt, be acquired as the team now has developed a very interesting strategy for acquiring established stars – trading for players who are mid-contract on teams that are not very good and cannot afford payroll. If you think about it, the notion that the Phillies obtained Halladay, Lee and Oswalt in a single calendar year without gutting their entire farm system or getting their payroll completely out of whack is astonishing. But, to do this, you need to be really selective and you also need to be careful that the minor league player you trade is not a player that you cannot replace somehow, even if, of course, the player you trade may end up being much, much cheaper. Thus far, I don’t see anyone they traded over the last few years who they cannot live without.

    This is a roundabout way of saying that I expect that quite a few of our good young pitchers (but probably not the guys the team projects to be true stars) will be traded for position players as the team’s need shifts from pitching to hitting. However, if the team is careful to make those trades good ones and not trade the true superstars that may be emerging in their system without good reason, with a little planning and luck, I don’t see why this team cannot continue a strong run for the foreseeable future.

    How sweet it is.

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  39. Bellman — your lament about how ‘easy’ it was for us to take the division ignores that the Braves were 7 up on us in July and suffered pitching losses after that. I wouldn’t say the Braves lacked a plan. With better health, they take the division this year. They likely take a wild card.

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  40. Oh give me a break Allentown – the Braves didn’t encounter any more significant injury losses than what the Phils suffered this year. Yes I agree, if the Braves were perfectly healthy (please let me know the last time that happened to any team) and the Phils had the injuries they did, the Braves probably would have won the division. Its almost like saying if Washington had Halladay, Oswalt, Madson, Howard, Werth, and Utley, they would have won the division this year.

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  41. wow the phillies have only one player not missing games out of the regulars due to injuries. lose moyer, lidge, matson, romaro, happ, for a time and you say the braves would have won, how many more games the phillies win if they dont lose these guy and look at there record wiht rollins and without

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  42. I know a little out of left field; but Bastardo has had a few good outings recently. His velocity is up and strike outs are up. I know he’s been an injury waiting to happen; but I am hopeful.

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  44. Some comments on our younger players.

    If you watch Bastardo carefully you will see that he is on the cusp of being something between a very useful and nearly dominant middle to late game reliever. He is throwing 93-96 with late, rising action on his fastball and a nice slider that comes out of his hand looking to the hitter like the fastball. He has the potential to be an extremely good major league pitcher although exactly where he’ll pitch is not clear.

    On Brown – the more I see him, the more I like him. The most impressive thing about Brown that you could not entirely discern from his minor league statistics is how well he tracks pitches. Although he does not have a huge number of walks – his recent at bats show that he has good strike zone judgment now and, as he develops, is likely to develop outstanding judgment. This, combined with his speed, rocket arm, great natural power and amazing ability to get the good part of the bat on the ball suggest to me that he, at the very worst, going to be a productive regular for a championship calibur team. However, I suspect he will grow into something much more than that – something akin to a left-handed version of Jayson Werth, but with even more upside, which is saying something as Werth is an exceptionally talented player. I don’t think Brown is quite in Heyward or Stanton’s class (Stanton’s raw ability and power are mindboggling and I feel pretty much the same way about Heyward – this isn’t rocket science, I think most baseball people think this too), but he’s not going to be too far off that standard.

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  45. After tthe first three innings I think I might consider putting Vance Worley in my top ten prospects… very compact delivery, good movement.

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  46. Jumpin’ you are right on the money. The pitcher I saw out there today (he just left the game) showed solid middle-of-the-rotation stuff. Honestly, while Tommy Hanson does have better stuff, the difference wasn’t nearly what you might expect. Worley showed great poise and movement on his pitches. He threw several breaking pitches, including a nice change-up and a very sharp-breaking curveball – I wouldn’t quite call it 12-6, but it broke far more than average. On top of that Worley showed a fastball in the 91-94 range which froze several hitters. I also like Worley’s size. He’s a big strong guy, which suggests to me that he might develop more velocity and he might become a real workhorse. I feel very safe in conclude that Worley has far more ability than Kendrick and, unless this was a one-day fluke (I doubt it) – he has the inside track for the no. 5 job next year. This kid is a real player.

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  47. To me worst case senario is Worley takes durbin or contreas place, looks like he has nice fastball and above average breaking ball, and a change.

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  48. In the year that Worley was drafted the Baseball America year end evaluation of MLB teams drafting for the year said, I believe, that Worley would be the first of that year’s Phils draftees to reach the majors lgs.

    If my memory is correct, it seems they hit the bullseye on that target.

    Since Kendrick has been the poster child for habitual erratic pitchers it would be mahvelous if Worley could successfully gain the #5 spot in ’11 and suspend our supplying ourselves with aspirin or the pain reliever of our choice when #5 comes up.

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  50. Let me go back to Schwimology
    Hanson shows too much of the ball

    Many were negative about double jumping. Schwim stated that a little struggle is not the worse thing. As per Spark Anderson too much early success leads players to think the game is early. I am on the side of challenging players. If they have the GROIN for baseball they will survive.

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  51. I think the way you advance players is dictated mostly on the individual circumstances regarding the player. However, my personal view is that things have generally worked out much better when the team was conversative in promoting players. So long as a player is not permitted to languish in a situation where he is dominating the competition, mastery and confidence seem to be more conducive to long-term success than throwing a player into a situation where he is over his head. Sure, there are exceptions and, perhaps, Worley and Stutes were correctly double-jumped two years ago, but I think if they had just gone to Clearwater, they probably would have ended up in the same place at the same time. Others (Santana, Aumont and Valle are good examples) go backwards when they are promoted too soon. But, yeah, it’s stupid to keep a guy in a league when he just outclasses the competition – like Austin Hyatt did for about two months this summer – now that was a wasted opportunity.

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  53. Allentown, I think you mistook me for someone else. I’m the ultimate pessimist. I was calling for the Phils to give up Werth and get the best deal they could. I never anoint a recent draftee the next coming of anything. I don’t even want to put Biddle in my top 20. I would never say that winning the division was easy. It has never been easy.

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