A last look at the bullpen for Lehigh Valley, Reading, and Clearwater. A good amount of talent, and unlike most other areas in the organization, some potential for big league movement come 2011 with the impending free agency of several Phils relievers (Durbin, Contreras, Romero), along with the possibility that David Herndon begins next season in Allentown. Look for the final roster report of the season, the bullpen (Lakewood, Williamsport, and GCL) on Tuesday.
Lehigh Valley
Antonio Bastardo, 25, 23 games, 1-1 with a 1.77 ERA; 3 saves, 20.1 IP 15 H 6BB 33K, 1.00 GO/AO, .200 opp. avg., .212 vs. LH, .167 vs. RH, .238 with RISP. 1.03 WHIP. A 14.6 K rate per nine in the minors with an opposition average at .200 indicates that it is time to sink or swim with Bastardo in the Phils bullpen next year, replacing JC Romero.
Alex Concepcion, 26, 23 games, 2-3 with a 6.00 ERA; 30IP 26H 18BB 18K, 0.92 GO/AO, .226 opp. avg., .302 vs. LH, .161 vs. RH, .310 with RISP, 1.47 WHIP. Concepcion had a difficult year and was inhibited by shoulder issues post all star break. Signed as a free agent back in 2003, I would be a bit surprised to see him back.
Brian Gordon, 32, 40 games, 1-3 with a 3.46 ERA; 78IP 73H 19BB 86K, 2HR allowed, 0.74 GO/AO, .247 opp. avg., .289 vs. LH, .208 vs. RH, .256 with RISP, 0-2 with a 2.49 ERA Post All STar, 1.18 WHIP. Gordon was an unsung hero on the Lehigh Valley staff, taking the ball often to eat innings when the bullpen was depleted. Unfortunately, he was not put in too many high leverage situations because the Phils wanted to see how their younger relievers threw. That being said, Gordon pitched well. He is a converted outfielder, has a good arm and a great attitude. Where Gordon ends up next year is anyones guess.
Derrick Loop, 26, 16 total games between CW and LV (Only his last game was with LV); 5-1 with an 0.32 ERA, 28IP 15H 9BB 32K, 1HR allowed, .165 opp. avg. Loop was rescued from the Independent league late in the season when Clearwater needed pitchers and opened some eyes with his performance. He was lights out in CLearwater and may have earned himself a look as a middle relief guy somewhere in the organization next year. He was originally a 23rd round selection of the Indians in the 2006 draft.
Scott Mathieson, 26, 54 games, 3-6 with a 2.80 ERA; 26 saves, 64.1IP 49H 24BB 83K, 8 Hr allowed, 0.83 GO/AO, .212 opp. avg., .261 vs. LH, .167 vs. RH, .241 with RISP, 1.13 WHIP. Mathieson threw generally very well for Lehigh Valley and was dominant at times with AAA hitters having a lot of difficulty catching up with the fastball. He throws a good change up and an improved slider and it is time to go give him a legitimate shot in the Phillies bullpen. With at least two openings in 2011, and more likely 3 or 4, one of those spots should go to Mathieson.
Michael Schwimer, 24, Reading: 32 games, 5-3 with a 3.60 ERA; 11 saves, 40 IP 34H 14BB 58K, 5 HR allowed, 0.88 GO/AO, .225 opp. avg., 1.20 WHIP. Lehigh Valley: 16 games, 2-2 with a 1.35 ERA, 20IP 16H 7BB 18K, 0.79 GO/AO, .213 opp. avg., .229 vs. LH, .200 vs. RH, .080 with RISP, 1.15 WHIP. TOTALS: 48 games, 7-5 with a 2.85 ERA; 60IP 50H 21BB 76K, 0.84 GO/AO, .221 opp. avg. With several potential vacancies probable in the Phillies bullpen in 2011 because of free agency (Contreras, Durbin, Romero), Schwimer has placed himself among less than a half-dozen candidates for the open positions. A 14th Round pick in 2008 from UVA, Schwimer has shown he can pitch with success at high levels, including a very nice “K rate”. 2011: Lehigh Valley with a call up at some point during the season.
Michael Stutes, 24, Reading: 25 games, 3-0 with a 3.79 ERA; 2 saves, 35.2 IP 28H 21BB 37K, 2 HR allowed, 1.09 GO/AO, .217 opp. avg., 1.37 WHIP. Lehigh Valley: 28 games, 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA; 1 save, 40.2 IP 29H 23BB 42K, 0.73 GO/AO, .200 opp. avg., 1.28 WHIP, .210 vs. LH, .193 vs. RH, .167 with RISP. 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA in 20 Post All Star Games. TOTALS: 53 games, 7-1 with a 3.42 ERA, 3 saves, 76.1 IP 57 H 44BB 79K, 7 HR allowed, 0.88 GO/AO, .208 opp. avg. Like Schwimer, Stutes has placed himself in firm contention for a bullpen spot with the Phils in 2010. He came on very strong towards the end of the year showing both durability and pitching with power. His control remains a bit of an issue, but improving. 2011: Lehigh Valley to start, Philly at some point.
Oscar Villarreal, 28, 49 games, 4-3 with a 4.40 ERA; 1 save, 57.1 IP 54H 26BB 42K, 7 HR allowed, 2.39 GO/AO, .254 opp. avg., .318 vs. LH, .211 vs. RH, .353 with RISP, 3-1 with a 6.97 ERA Post All Star, 1.40 WHIP. This was Villarreal’s first season back Post Tommy John and was healthy the whole year, but struggled tremendously during the second half of the year. .356 with RISP is eye opening as well. I doubt Villarreal will be back.
Ehren Wasserman, 30, 18 games, 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA; 26IP 29H 13BB 12K, 5 HR allowed, 1.21 GO/AO, .296 opp. avg., .302 vs. LH, .291 vs. RH, 1.61 WHIP. Wasserman spent the final 3 months of the season on the DL. He was awful during the first two months of the season.
Mike Zagurski, 27, 52 games, 2-3 with a 3.27 ERA, 3 saves, 52.1 IP 44H 27BB 71K, 1.45 GO/AO, .228 opp. avg., .274 vs. LH, .193 vs. RH, .243 with RISP, 1.35 WHIP, 1-1 with a 3.43 ERA in 21 Post All Star Games. Zagurski had a huge K rate (12.21/9) was generally pitched very well for Lehigh Valley. He doesnt project as a lefty specialist per se because of his reverse splits, but is in the mix for a 2011 bullpen spot with the Phils. The 12th Round Pick in 2005 is on the 40 man roster and will have one option remaining entering the spring.
Reading
Jason Anderson, 31, 42 games (6 starts) between Reading and Lehigh Valley. 2-8 with a 4.48 ERA; 4 saves, 76.1 IP 88H 19BB 56K, 1.01 GO/AO, .293 opp. avg., .284 vs. LH, .297 vs. RH., .303 with RISP, 2-4 with a 6.35 ERA Post All Star. Anderson has been asked to play almost every role on the mound in both Reading and Lehigh Valley over the last several years. AFter a very good 2009, Anderson had a mediocre year in 2010. WHere he is in 2011, will depend on organizational need, if any.
Chance Chapman, 26, 30 games (3 starts), 2-3 with a 5.16 ERA; 52.1 IP 51H 22BB 39K, 2 Hr allowed, 1.08 GO/AO, .262 opp. avg., .272 vs. LH, .268 vs. RH, .286 with RISP, 2-2 with a 5.81 ERA Post All Star. Chapman, the Phils 8th round pick in 2007 had a down year struggling with injury, pitching inconsistently from June onward. I assume he will be left unprotected for Rule 5 purposes, and untaken as well, leaving him back in Reading for the start of 2011 to try to turn things around.
Justin DeFratus, 22, Clearwater: 29 games, 2-0 with a 1.79 ERA; 15 saves, 40.1 IP 31H 11BB 43K, 1 Hr allowed, 1.39 GO/AO, .215 opp. avg., 1.04 WHIP Reading: 20 games, 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA; 24.2 IP 17H 5BB 28K, 1.59 GO/AO, .195 opp. avg., .125 with RISP, .140 vs. LH, .250 vs. RH., 0.89 WHIP TOTALS: 49 games, 3-0 with a 1.94 ERA; 21 saves, 65IP 48H 16BB 71K, 1.46 GO/AO, .208 opp. avg. 0.98 WHIP. Exceptional year for DeFratus, the Phils 11th round pick in 2007. Rule 5 eligible this off-season he must be added to the 40 man roster. He transitioned to Reading without issue, even improving his Clearwater line which was very good. DeFratus will go into 2011 with a chance to win a job in the Phillies bullpen, but will most likely end up in Allentown to start.
Sergio Escalona, 26, 50 games, 4-8 with a 3.81 ERA; 10 saves, 54.1 IP, 46H 22BB 53K, 1.57 GO/AO, .227 opp. avg., .188 vs. LH, .262 vs. RH, .233 with RISP, 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA Post All Star, 1.25 WHIP. Sort of a stagnant year for Escalona who, as a member of the 40 man roster will have one option remaining in 2011. Expect him in Lehigh Valley next year.
Matt German, 26, 43 games, 1-2 with a 5.87 ERA; 46IP 46H 23BB 38K, 5 HR allowed, 0.65 GO/AO, .260 opp. avg., 1.50 WHIP, .237 vs. LH, .286 vs. RH, .319 with RISP. After struggling with injury issues in 2009, German had a hard time bouncing back in 2010 putting up a disappointing line. His command was an issue, and as a soft tosser, with no command comes little success. It is a real question mark as to whether he will be back.
Chris Kissock, 25, Clearwater: 36 games, 6-3 with a 2.17 ERA; 4 saves, 54 IP, 49H 8BB 36K, 4HR allowed, 1.80 GO/AO, .241 opp. avg., 1.05 WHIP. Reading: 11 games, 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA; 23.1 IP 20H 4BB 14K, 1 HR allowed, 1.12 GO/AO, .247 opp. avg., 1.03 WHIP. .185 with RISP. TOTALS: 47 games, 7-3 with a 2.68 ERA; 77.1 IP 69H 12BB 50K, 1.55 GO/AO, .243 opp. avg. Kissock was the Phils 9th round pick in 2007 and placed himself on the radar screen with a very good 2010. He will be Rule 5 eligible this year, although I doubt he will be added to the 40 man roster or taken in the draft, a good performance in the AFL could change that. 2011: Reading to start, Lehigh Valley by mid season if pitching well.
BJ Rosenberg, 25, 20 games between Clearwater and Reading. 2-0 with a 5.20 ERA, 27.2 IP 25H 9BB 33K, 1.14 GO/AO, .238 opp. avg. 2010 was pretty much a washout for Rosenberg who got injured early, came back, and then reinjured himself. He did pitch very well in the seasons last month, as he started to reclaim some of his vast ability. Rosenberg, the Phils 13th round pick in 2008 will be participating in the AFL. How he feels as well as how he performs will lead to wear he starts in 2011.
Clearwater
Jacob Diekman, 23, Lakewood: 21 Games, 2-0 with a 1.90 ERA; 23.2 IP 16H 15BB 30K, 0HR allowed, 2.64 GO/AO, .178 opp. avg, 1.30 WHIP. Clearwater: 24 games, 0-2 with a 3.44 ERA; 32IP 22H 23BB 26K, 2 HR allowed, 2.53 GO/AO, .191 opp. avg., 1.40 WHIP. .240 vs. LH, .182 vs. RH, .250 with RISP. TOTALS: 45 games, 2-2 with a 2.91 ERA; 55.2 IP 38H 38BB 56K, .187 opp. avg. A very good year for Diekman, the Phils 30th round pick in the 2007 draft. He continues to need to work on his control. I would expect him to move up to Reading in 2011. He will be Rule 5 eligible this off-season and I would not expect him to be protected.
Jordan Ellis, 25, Lakewood: 33 games, 3-3 with a 2.47 ERA; 11 saves, 43.2 IP 31H 17BB 55K, 1 HR allowed, 1.15 GO/AO, .200 opp. avg. CLearwater: 20 games, 1-3 with a 2.25 ERA; 4 saves, 32IP 27H 19BB 34K, 1.31 GO/AO, .229 opp. avg., .348 vs. LH, .153 vs. RH, .185 with RISP. TOTALS: 53 games, 4-6 with a 2.38 ERA, 15 saves, 75.2 IP 58H 36BB 89K, .212 opp. avg. Ellis was a pleasant surprise this year after not showing much during his first two minor league seasons. The 2008 draft pick has earned a 2011 promotion to Reading in the back of their ‘pen.
Edgar Garcia, 23, 34 games (10 starts); 3-4 with a 4.16 ERA; 93IP 93H 33BB 83K, 10 HR allowed, 0.96 GO/AO, .257 opp. avg., .292 vs. LH, .234 vs. RH, .255 with RISP. Garcia did not take another step backwards this year, but his days as a true prospect are waning. Entering his 7th year in the organization, Garcia would be in Reading in 2011 I would presume.
Korey Noles, 25, 21 games, 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA; 29IP 37H 12BB 16K, 1.34 GO/AO, .302 opp. avg., .244 vs. LH, .333 vs. RH, .308 with RISP. After a very good 2009 season, Noles had a disappointing 2010, that was mired with injury. He missed the last 2 plus months of the season on the DL. 2011 is a real crapshoot as to where Noles goes in the organization, if anywhere.
Juan Sandoval, 29, 21 games, 1-1 with a 6.68 ERA; 33.2 IP 46H 15BB 21K, 1.34 GO/AO; .343 opp. avg. Sandoval was brought in as a mid-season stop gap and that was the way he pitched.
Jon Velasquez, 24, 45 games, 3-9 with a 3.19 ERA; 6 saves, 87.1 IP, 68H 36BB 77K, 0.62 GO/AO, .217 opp. avg., .215 vs. LH, .219 vs. RH, .263 with RISP. Velasquez did a little of everything this year and did it well. He started, closed and was a long man in between. Signed as a free agent in 2009, Velasquez should be in Reading come 2011.
Phuture Phillies 
I am curious about a couple things … I have just started checking out your site and I enjoy it thoroughly, you do a great job. I thought I was the only “nut” who followed the Phils minor leagues players all the way down to the GCL Phillies. I have a question, when looking at pitcher’s stats, you use a “GO/AO” ratio, I can’t figure out what that is. Also, Derrick Loop, you don’t appear to bullish on him despite his lights out stats. Is that due to his age? I know he was pitching at CW at 26, but a .32 ERA, a WHIP less that 1.00, OBA at .165, those are crazy #’s. He should get a good look next spring and I would think end up in LV. Am I overrating this guy?
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Tom Lane…. GO/AO is ground ball outs to fly ball outs
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Tom–
This season was the first season Derrick Loop ever pitched a game above AA, and it was just that, one game. He proved himself at Clearwater, but keep in mind that this is a guy that is now in his 3rd organization since 2006, excluding his time in the Independant League….We all look for, and hope for the proverbial “diamond in the rough”, and hopefully that is exactly what Loop is. Best case scenario suggests he is at Reading next year, as the Phillies will have quite the logjam in Lehigh Valley. As an aside, Loop is known as having one of the best pick off moves in the game.
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Why no Matthieson?
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In Matheson, Schwimer, Stutes, Bastardo, DeFratus, and possibly Rosenberg, if he can get healthy and back to where he was throwing last year, the Phils have quality “cheap” major league arms available. Bastardo and one, or maybe two, of these guys should start the year in Philly. Finally!
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Mike N–
Belive it or not…TOTALLY forgot him….Adding him now. Embarrassing considering how much praise I threw his way this year. I am a big Mathieson guy!
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Gregg,
Wow, this is all good stuff. Just wondering with so many rule 5 guys this year who might be protected? Is it me or does there seem to be more than usual?
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The Phillies definately help “some potential” in the upper levels with the bullpen. I think Mathieson makes the team next year. Bastardo has not looked good in his brief stints in 2010. Stutes could be a Chad Durbin type. Mike Schwimer a good set-up guy and I think the real wild card in this could be DeFratus as the future closer.
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Though I enjoy this site, there is one area of popular opinion here that I find stupefying. The over rating of these minor league bullpen arms. It’s laughable that some believe that guys like Mathieson and Stutes will make next next years’ opening day roster, along with Bastardo. The Phillies are no more loaded with Minor League bullpen arms than any other team.
Mathieson has caused more wasted breath than John Mayberry. If he makes the team, it will be because they refuse to sign even the most marginal bullpen vet. Stutes is a minor league pitcher.
Bastardo and De Fratus are the only two minor league non starters I would think have a chance at being impact bullpen pieces. The other future bullpen pieces are all starters (Aumont, Ramirez, Hyatt maybe).
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I could absolutely see Mathieson, Stutes, Schwimer, etc. being impact bullpen arms. Every year MLB teams come up with good relievers I’ve never heard of coming into the season. But you can’t count on three of those guys all coming up and simultaneously contributing. (And by the same token, you also don’t want seven guys in your bullpen on multi-year contracts.)
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Regarding Schwimer, I will withhold judgment. He may be a guy who has a decent career. However, I do not see the fascination with Stutes. Every report I have ever read says he lacks command and he is wild with his secondary stuff. Mathieson doesn’t even have major league secondary pitches. How is a guy like that built-up as a sure thing to make a championship team’s roster?
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The Doubting Thomases need to update their viewpoints for the ’11 season. The payroll relief due to the bullpen contracts expiring is the opening to bring along to the pen some of their draftees who, I believe, were signed with this in mind.
Hyatt has surprised and pitched recently as a starter, very effectively. If they find him doing just as well as he did at Clwtr (best pitcher in league) at Reading in ’11, he could emerge soon as their backup starter (absent winter trades) as well as help for the pen sometime before ’11s season end. DeFratus seems primed to become a serious candidate for a closer…which they will soon need because Lidge’s contract also ends at ’11s season’s close. DeFratus had a super great season in ’10…is scheduled for the AFL in October, and it is certain that should he keep this pace up, he WILL be part of the pen sometime towards ’11s midseason.
There seems some controversy about Mathieson and his real or missing 2nd pitch. Some statements mention his slider and another even mentioned a change-up. That he is busy learning the splitter it must be that the 2nd one is inadequate. But, since he had such an outstanding season in AAA at LV, he should be considered for the pen IF he does learn that pitch. Along with his giddyup fast ball, he should make the team and along with DeFratus compete for closer’s role…at least in ’11-12.
All that ain’t so bad; in fact it’s real good! I like the FO approach.
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Just so we are clear…I have two relievers making the team out of Spring Training: Mathieson and Bastardo. I believe that we will see at least one of the Schwimer, Stutes, DeFratus contingent at some point during the season.
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I think at least 2 rookies will be making the bullpen out of Spring Training. This is not a huge leap as 1 rookie (Herndon) made it this year.
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I think most bullpen jobs are the hardest in baseball. Pinch itter role has to be right up there too. You have to go to the ballpark every day not knowing if you’ll pitch. You have to be ready to pitch… to anyone on the other teams roster. You also might have to warmup a couple times during a game and not even get in the game. You have to get your adrenaline level up and then many times sit back down. You have to know the other teams hitters and yet you might not have pitched to any of them. You pitching plan is short-term in nature. You can’t think about establishing the fastball and then work in your secondaries because you have to come in and just get 1 or a couple of guys out. If a starter works a game and gives up a hit or BB to the 1st guy he faces, it’s no big deal. He’s long-term. Relievers have to go and get every guy they face. Pressure is tough. Even Loogys feel pressure because they want to be that 8th or 9th inning guy. Don’t mess up.
With all that said, Relievers have to be mature guys, who trust their stuff. A young guy might know he’s got great stuff but he’s inexperienced in many of the nuances of pitching in the big leagues. I guess it’s no surprise that most relievers on good clubs, like the Phils, are 30 years old or more. They’ve been around. If the Phils were back in their mediocre years, the bullpen would be filled with Bastardo, Mathieson, Schwimer, Stutes and maybe DeFratus. They’d get their experience and then move to the Sox, Yankees or other good clubs.
These guys have talent. They need experience. They need to level out the adrenaline rush. Think about Oswalt’s first game as a Phillie. His spike in adrenaline got the better of him and he was awful. He’s an experienced, star pitcher. Imagine a 25 year old guy that’s thrown out there and told to hold the lead or don’t let the game get out of hand or get this great player out and save the inning.
I don’t think the Phils can fill their bullpen with these guys and expect the same results as the veteran relievers but they need salary relieve and I can guaranty at least 1 of these guys is on the big club out of ST. I would not be surprised to see 3 of them providing valuable innings during the year.
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some small amplifications:
Herndon did not “make the team” as a rookie-he was Rule 5 and had to be there. If you want to say that’s semantics, maybe, but its still a different scenario.
Secondly, I would table the discussion on how many pitches Mathieson has. Reading between all the lines, Bruce Sutter was brought in specifically to teach his Hall of Fame pitch, the split-finger fastball, and it was already reported he was working with Mathieson.
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I think that Bastardo, Mathieson, and possibly Zagurski and Escalona are the only ones that have a shot at making the team out of Spring Training. I think that Stutes, Schwimmer, and DeFratus have a shot at coming up mid season just to be a David Herndon type.
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It’s semantics. It would have cost them nothing to offer Herndon back to the Angels, in fact they’d get money back if the Angels wanted him. The Phillies saw a young sinker ball arm they could use in low leverage situations. They valued him more than other options even when that was difficult to do. Did he have any major league experience prior to this year? He was a rookie.
I also think Mathieson gets traded this winter while his value is high.
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“While his value is high”
When did his value become high? What are you expecting back for a 26 year old minor league pitcher that has had 2 Tommy John surgeries? Mathieson’s value is high only to some readers on Phuturephillies.
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Gregg, Another spot-on analysis, Thanks! One thing I would like to see is “days spent on the DL,” perhaps just for guys for whom that has been a continuing issue. To me and a lot of others, the biggest question mark coming into the season for Bastardo, Matheison, and Zagurski, was their durability and health. Zagurski has been ignored so far by all of the commentators, but he answered his health questions the best and has just a good a chance as Bastardo, Matheison, and Herdon of opening the 2011 season with the Phillies. By the way, I don’t think that any of these 4 would be officially considered rookies next year and we’ll have to take all 4 off our prospect list discussions.
To mike77, I don’t think anybody has said, the Phillies “loaded with Minor League bullpen arms.” We’re just saying that this season, most of the Phillies’ major league ready players in the minor leagues (prospects/rookies or not) happen to be relievers. Looking for these pitchers to compete for the closers role any time soon is unrealistic. Let’s see them make the team and have some big league success in the 7th and 8th inning first. But I do agree that DeFratus seems to have the brightest future. This is his 4th consecutive very strong year statistically. He has shown both the consistency and the star potential needed to succeed on baseball’s biggest stage. Everybody else we’ve talked about has lacked consistency, but if they get it, they’ll be major leaguers.
Zagurski’s relative success against righties this season is a good thing. He can be like Romero and be effective for a full inning or inning plus. That said, his “reverse splits” are probably an artifact of too small a sample size. He does have splits in the expected direction in his MLB career. To the commenters, don’t forget Escalona, Zagurski and Worley as potential relievers for the Phillies come April 2011. I think the Phillies will obtain some fifth starter candidates with major league experience (perhaps even resigning Moyer), through free agency and trade, mostly on minor league deals to challenge with Kendrick for the fifth starters job or perhaps like Park and Contreras with potential to start or relieve. Depending on how things go in Spring Training, Kendrick and/or Worley could end up in the Phillies bullpen.
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Remember how Ruben works. He will likely add a couple of veteran arms to compete with all of these guys. Some of them will be on Minor League deals so that if the likes of Bastardo or Matheison beat them out then he will move those vets to LV or just cut. But if this team loses Durbin, Romero, Contreras, and others then we all know the fans will be screaming for Rube to sign someone or trade. And Ruben will very likely fill a spot or 2 with a proven Major League arm. Its just the way he works and history would back that.
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I agree with Bob – probably only one or two minor league relief pitchers, at the very most, will stick with the club coming out of ST. And it’s not just Ruben, I think Charlie and Dubee like experienced relief pitchers too. Several of the players we like will probably be traded. I do think, however, that Mathieson will likely stick if healthy. Bastardo should too. Everyone else? Back to the dungeon!
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mike77 you have no clue on what you say i enjoy reading what you write only for a good laugh
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“While his value is high”
Uh yeah, compared to his value after his second Tommy John surgery I’d say it is soaring.
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Ranking the relief prospects. If I rated pitchers who I felt would make the best relievers, someone like Phillippe Aumont might rate #1. But instead I decided to rank only the pitchers who spent a healthy part of 2010 in a bullpen.
1. Scott Mathieson
2. Antonio Bastardo
3. Justin De Fratus
4. Michael Schwimer
5. Michael Stutes
6. Joshua Zeid
7. Edgar Garcia
8. Mike Zagurski
9. Julian Sampson
10. B.J. Rosenberg
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Ranking the Phillies’ future relievers (uneducated guess):
1. Ramirez
2. De Fratus
3. Bastardo
4. Aumont
5. Schwimer
6. Mathieson
7. Hyatt
8. Zeid
9. Zagurski
10. Stutes
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I have seen stutes twice throw, how can anyone on here say he is a minor league? But looking at ramirez and aumont praise those two. Sorry they have shown nothing to be rated in top of any ones list. Stutes has a chance better than ramirez, and better than aumont to contribute.And mathieson being put down, is amazing he throws 96 and is coming off two surgies,no reason he cant develop a secondary pitch, and I love he throws a straight fastball another joke, like all guys fastballs move, too much
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Writing off a guy like Aumont would be a mistake. In 2007 Daniel Bard walked 78 batters in 75 innings. I wrote him off as any kind of prospect. The Sox converted him to the bullpen and he exploded into one of the best relievers in baseball. Statistics are less reliable for relievers than for any other group in projecting future performance.
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Alan just wondering why people pick Aumont and Ramirez, is it because of the trade? Are we trying to justified it? Where are the facts showing these kids are going to pan out? Just because we got them for lee doesnt mean they will ever do anything, thats my point show me where they have improved. How can anyone who thinks they know baseball have him as the number one relief pitcher. Tell me please?
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Mikemike, Phillippe Aumont isn’t some media creation or anything. He was an eleventh overall pick in the 2007 draft, and Baseball America rated him in the top 100 of their prospect list for three years. He was with the Mariners’ organization at the time of all three lists. On the mound he pitched well in the M’s farm system, including a 3.24 ERA which is amazing for High Desert. And in 2009 he pitched in the World Baseball Classic and helped Canada escape a bases loaded, no out situation unscathed.
Obviously, the guy has shown a pedigree and a track record. The question is, how much does one bad season cloud judgment of a minor league prospect? The track records are filled with good major league players who had bad seasons in the minors.
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If you saw the Phils game last night, it included a pretty impressive display of ability by Antonio Bastardo who is now in the 94-96 MPH range with his fastball and shows more than a decent slider. He struck out the side in the 8th. Assuming he stays healthy, his upside is very impressive. I don’t think he’s likely to become a closer, but he certainly has the ability to be a fine set-up guy and, in the playoffs (I think he’s just about won a job for the first postseason series), he’s an extremely valuable LOOGY+.
The most interesting thing next spring, aside from what happens to Dom Brown, will be the composition of the bullpen. My guess is that it will end up being Lidge, Madson, Mathieson, Bastardo, Durbin (he’s valuable and I think they will re-sign him for a couple of years – he will add stability to the pen when Lidge leaves after 2011), and another lefty they acquire – not sure what happens to Baez and Contreras will probably not be re-signed. Herndon will be in the minors to perfect his secondary offerings.
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Let’s strike LOOGY from the venacular. I always felt it was an inefficient use of a roster space. Bastardo has only allowed righties to hit .210 off him in the minors over his career and while he is better against lefties, I think he’s just a good left handed reliever, period.
I’m not writing off David Herndon breaking camp with the club next year either. He gave up two home runs in 52 innings (so far) this season. That’s a terrific line, and I think the Phils got a real commodity there.
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Alan – I understand your point and agree that he has the ability to become a good reliever, but the reference to LOOGY was to his possible use in the playoffs THIS YEAR. Unless they need him to mop up in a game that is out of control, I doubt he gets to pitch to more than one or two batters per appearance and his main use this year in the playoffs will be to get out left-handed hitters. As for the LOOGY reference, you may not feel it’s appropriate, but as long as teams use left-handed relievers for precisely this purposes, the term will remain viable.
On Herndon, he has ability but was only a very borderline reliever this year and, if they did not have to keep on the roster, he probably would have been sent down. He needs some time (half a year to full year) to develop his breaking pitches so that he comes back as a good, servicable, long reliever or set up man. Right now, he’s not there.
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