Lehigh Valley loses 5-4.
Savery; 5 IP – 7 H – 3 ER – 4 BB – 3 K – 1 HR
Reading loses 5-2.
Gillies: 0/4
Galvis: 0/3, 1 BB
Brown: 0/3, 1 BB
Schwimer: 1 IP – 1 K
Clearwater loses 8-0.
Check below for the rest…
Gose: 1/4, CS
Rizzotti: 2/4 (hitting .361 on the season)
JC Ramirez: 4 IP – 7 ER – 8 H – 1 BB – 4 K
De Fratus: 1 IP – 2 K
Garcia: 2 IP – 1 H – 1 K
Lakewood wins 4-3.
JJ: 0/4, 1 BB
Hewitt: 0/4
Castro: 0/4
Valle: 2/4, 2B
Villar: 2/3
Santana: 0/2, 2 BB, SB
Hernandez: 6 IP – 0 ER – 3 H – 2 BB – 7 K
Some quick hits
* Nick Hernandez likely doesn’t have a whole lot left to learn at Lakewood. He should get bumped to Clearwater, IMO, and Shreve should take his spot in the rotation when Cosart has recovered from his blister issue.
* I’m giving Tyson Gillies 10 more games, then I’m officially getting concerned.
* A step back for JC Ramirez, but mama said there’d be days like this.
* Domingo Santana now has 14 BB and 26 K on the season. His average is really perplexing. He has a .370 BABIP, a very high LD%, and an even split of groundballs and flyballs. Its really really weird. He obviously has an idea at the plate, and pitchers are obviously worried about him, so I think its comforting that he is showing an advanced approach for his age. Hopefully he starts making a bit more contact and the average/power climb. But he’s holding his own right now.
Phuture Phillies 
Gillies’ BABIP is .256 currently, so he’s due for some luck in the long run. However, there are some major red flags in both his current and career numbers.
-His GB% has been 67% or higher at every stop except for high desert last year.
-His K rate: never under 18%, except for last year.
-He has been awful at FirstEnergy Park: .152/.170/.217 line in 47 PAs
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If his GB% is over 66% that BABIP doesn’t represent bad luck, in all likelihood, but bad contact. Even with his speed, only somewhere between 1/4 and 1/5 GB is going to be a hit.
Minor League Splits dot com has his LD% at 6.8% on the season. Generally, BABIP should equal LD rate (.068) + .120. So his BABIP is actually higher than you’d expect.
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My date to get concerned (or get excited) about guys playing everyday is May 1. The young speedsters are all struggling right now: Gillies, Gose and James. A stat to think about with Gillies is he’s only attempted 1 SB and he was caught stealing. I know he has to get on base to attempt a steal but you’d think he’d at least attempted a few more.
Something I noticed the last two games in Lakewood is Santana was pinch run for in both games. It worked out well in both games with James pinch running 2 nights ago, stealing a base and scoring on a error. Last night, Schoenberger pinch ran for Santana after he walked. He moved up on a Sac Bunt, moved to 3rd on an error and scored on a Hewitt ground out. Nice manufactoring of runs but why were they pinch running for Santana late in the last two games? He stole a base earlier in last nights game so he’s capable helping the team out with his legs.
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I declare May national “Santana Month” starting soon. Players that are a little uncomfortable at a new level may tend to try to just make contact and not swing hard which doesn’t work out. Soon the light will go on and the BOY will take off.
QUESTION: Is Bump now in the picture?
” The Phils have played only 6 games at home. Will it make a difference?
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Herdanez at lakewood does anyone know what kind of velocity he has, and secondary stuff, dont know much about him.
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Hernandez is, by all reports, a finesse pitcher and is older for that level. My rule with college pitchers is, absent an extremely high strikeout ratio (see Austin Hyatt), don’t get too excited until they played a couple of months in AA.
On the low averages for some of our more highly touted prospects – let’s all give it time. Gillies is young, has jumped a level, and has gone from a great hitting league to a pretty average hitting league. He’s struggling, but, these days, the jump from A+ to AA, is almost as big as the jump from AA to the majors since AA is now the premier prospects league.
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Never worry about a stat line until mid-June. Sometimes guys take a couple months to adjust to a higher level.
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Seems like Hewitt has not struck out for a couple games now. If not the last 2 games in a row. Last night and a recent other game. Able to make contact and score run as above. Seems like he has hit a bit less but has made more contact, so maybe he is making adjustments and may surge later.
The moving of Rizzotti to AA, where he might have been placed to begin with, might kick off some changes. They could advance any of the 3 First Basemen who could have been placed at AAA to begin with to AAA. Based on the early season stuff they really could release Andy Tracy, we’ll see if they have the inclination. Then the Ransom/Sellers conundrum would not need to resolve itself , Sellers could slide to 1B/DH and split with the AA advancee. To fill from below they could advance Darin Ruf to HI-A to keep holdover James Murphy in back-up /DH role. Then they could finally make the move to advance Jon Singleton to Lakewood. Or, if Collier recovers and Singleton is deemed not ready they could use Collier or one of the OF’s at 1B , and continue with one of the 4 OF’s as DH. Or, if the above moves occur, they could add Singleton and when the draft rolls around (I would say not before then) they could add Collier to mostly be the DH, and Santana may benefit by a Williamsport assignment at that time , if current trends continue. We’ll see what happens.
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Now that Howard has been signed for 7 or 8 years, does anyone really care about any first base prospects other than a potential star? I know I don’t. At this point, the only first base prospect I care about is Singleton. In my mind, everyone else is just filler or trade bait. So, yeah, I’m mildly interested, but aside from that, I couldn’t care less.
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Another poor stat to look at for Gillies is that he has only walked twice this year in 65 AB, last year he had 60 walks in 500 ABs.
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The most interesting play of the night was the game saving 5-3 assist at third to end the game by Adam Buschini. With the game on the line he came up big defensively.
Here is how Greg reported it in his blog:
Phew. Adam Buschini a diving stop of a groundout with runners on the corners. Lakewood wins 4-3!
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I believe I brought up Bushini yesterday, and it’s good to see him flashing some leather, too. Looking at his stats so far, he is certainly off to a good start – 10BB, iso over .200, ops over .900. If he has similar numbers by Memorial Day, then he needs to be sent to Clearwater. Given his age, he would probably be considered old for High-A, but he may be creeping his way onto the Prospect Radar ™.
– Jeff
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keith I hope you are right about gillies, I just dont understand why we took him and ramirez over a good third base prospect for lee. IT really cant figure it out, especially since two of the top ten for seattle are third basemen. Much rather have a good third base prospect then another toolsy outfielder.
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Can we wait until at least May to start ripping the guys we got in the Lee trade? Seriously, its late April and they’re PROSPECTS that are probably working on certain things with new coaches and trainers.
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I’m not going to rip anyone because it’s still so very early, but man, there’s not been a lot to get fired up about early on with the exception of a few flashes.
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Since we’re coming into May, when does the VSL and DSL start up? I think the VSL is usually in the middle of May and DSL the end of May. That will add a couple more box scores to look at.
When we’re talking about players age and level remember Freddy Galvis is a full year younger that Gillies. He also has one very large plus tool. It may not be the tool we all want but it’s an impressive tool. I’m really hoping that when he fully matures, he’ll hit enough to be an everyday SS. Gillies struggles gives me hope that Galvis will surprise everyone.
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The Santana thing is fascinating. He’s whiffing at, to be frank, an unacceptable rate (a full 47.2% of his at bats), but the accompanying patience is jarring for a kid his age (walks in 20.3% of his plate appearances), while he’s already clubbed a pair of homers and posted a not-too-shabby .146 ISO in a godawful park for hitters. It’s weird, in that the numbers show that he’s clearly punching above his weight in that league, but he’s not exactly overmatched.
The Gillies thing has got my full attention at this point. 67 plate appearances certainly isn’t enough to draw any meaningful conclusions, but the peripherals are just really, really bad — 17 whiffs in 65 at bats (a 26.2% K rate) is a scary number for a slap hitter. There’s obviously plenty of time for him to turn things around, but count me among those with definite concerns at this point.
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Also, agreed with NEPP above: let’s not start second guessing who we got from the Mariners just yet. Based on the information available at the time, I preferred all three of the prospects we got to the third baseman rocky’s referencing above — Alex Liddi hadn’t hit anywhere but the Cal League, and Carlos Triunfel profiled as a third baseman with no power. I’m sure the Phillies had a similar mindset when pursuing Gillies, Ramirez and Aumont as the return for that deal.
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Players get hot and cold. That’s baseball. Yeah, I’m as upset as the next guy about the poor starts most of the young hitters are having – but I expect a few of them will turn it around in the months to come.
Not hitting is one thing that can change – but the plus speed guys are really worrying me in that they aren’t taking walks either. If you don’t control the plate the pitchers going to throw junk at you. I’m afraid we might be seeing a little of this with the Lakewood guys and Gose. It’s hard to get out of a slump when you’re swinging at garbage balls.
The fact that Santana is walking makes me a lot less concerned about his average being low. If he’s making them throw good pitches he’ll eventually start grooving them.
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If it is any consolation. April was Gillies’ worst month last year. He also struggled similarly in the 1st month he played at High A in 2008.
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Bastardo goes down…
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and you know why? Because he has options.
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Yea, he would be the obvious choice of bullpen options with Kendrick soon to follow once Blanton is ready.
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As for guys off to a slow start, it happens to different guys every year. I don’t start getting concerned until around June. If a guy hasn’t righted the ship by then, they are probably in for a bad season overall.
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Sort of, it’s mainly because they have to keep Figeuroa & Kendrick in the rotation til Blanton & Happ get back, and they don’t want to lose Herndon since he’s shown a lot of potential as a rule 5 pick. Can’t say I blame them.
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I think sending Bastardo down was a mistake. His stuff is better than Romero’s right now. However, it was clear that UC didnt trust him as a rookie so he was rotting away on the bench. Hopefully he continues to refine his slider in Lehigh and they bring him up as a second LHP at some piont later in the year when the numbers work out.
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“Liddi hadn’t hit anywhere but the Cal League”
and where has Gillies hit? Is not even the players we got but
the fact that the cupboard is bare with no chance of anyone picking up Lee’s innings.(he is back tomorrow )
I hope at least they send Bastardo out to start.
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“no chance of anyone picking up Lee’s innings”
Roy Halladay is picking up Lee’s innings pretty well so far.
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Everyday with the ridiculous statements. The cupboard is not bare. If the Phillies need to make a trade for pitching they have enough to get a starter if needed, without moving Domonic Brown, Cosart, May or Aumont.
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It’s not like anyone we gave up is lighting up the majors either. The only thing Lou Marson is doing is accelerating Carlos Santana’s timetable. Kyle Drabek and Carlos Carrasco wouldn’t have helped the Phillies right now.
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I don’t think the cupboard is bare, but without giving up one of the four you mentioned, what type of pitcher do you think we could get and what do we have to give up? Prospects in A ball don’t fetch much at the trade deadline.
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“without giving up one of the 4 (prospects) you mentioned, what type of pitcher do you think we could get?”
The system is virtually equal to what it was at this time in 2008. The Phillies got Joe Blanton for Cardenas and Outman. A number 3 pitcher, still in his arbitration years, for an A baller, a guy in AA that was in nobody’s top 100 and filler. You don’t think the Phillies could get a the same type pitcher for Anthony Gose and Bastardo at the deadline?
They could get an even better pitcher, for that, if they took a veteran in the last yearof his deal.
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Mike, no I don’t. Cardenas was considered a much better prospect than Gose and at the time, Outman was a starter with a mid-90s fastball. Bastardo seems to have a ceiling of a set up guy. I’d hate for the phillies to acquire those guys for their number three starter, so why would I think another team would do that? I think your overvaluing those guys
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Did you read my entire post? Blanton still had 2 years arbitration left. Even if you believe Cardenas and Outman blow away Gose and Bastardo ( I don’t), they still get the same level pitcher if he is not in his arbitration years.
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What’s all this “should have got Alex Liddi , the Third Baseman” deal? Everything I see says he does not possess the agility, fielding proficiency, and all that to even remain a Third Baseman.
He would probably just have turned into another First Base prospect people could whine about having to read about.
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I think Santana is over matched in the sally league. Good looking kid, but hes just that a kid. Maybe send him back to Est. and send Gump who is struggling at clearwater, or even Dabbs who is healed up from his Ab injury to Lakewood.
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