After a busy first week (and a fraction), the RPhils stand a 5-4 in the Eastern Division of the Eastern League, 1.5 games behind division leader Trenton. The RPhils had a 4-game winning streak over the first weekend of the season, but have lost far more than they’ve won outside the streak. They are winless on the road, at 0-2. Reading is 4th in the league in BA at .247, with their .659 OPS being 8th in the league, so they really have not been hitting. Their 36 runs scored is, however, tied for 6th in the league, basically dead-center.
The pitching has been a little below league average, with a team ERA of 3.87, but, looking at the peripheral stats, they’re not even that good. Their problem has been walks, as they lead the league with 36 so far while being last in the league with strikeouts, whiffing only 43. They’ve also given up 9 HRs, tied for the most in the league. Honestly, given the talent on this team, the pitching should improve.
Mike Spidale leads the RPhils in average, hitting .346, currently 10th in the league, with Domonic Brown and Tag Bozied close behind at .323 and .321 (15th and 16th in the EL). Ironically, Brown was injured yesterday in a collision with Bozied diving for a foul ball, where he sustained a mild concussion that may keep him out of the lineup for a day or two. Tyson Gillies, who apparently left his bats on the plane when the club flew north, is the regular who is struggling most, hitting an unlikely .111 at this point while drawing only 2 walks. Gillies likely will turn things around soon, he seems to have too much natural ability to struggle this much. Freddy Galvis, the excellent defensive SS, has been fairly consistent (but mediocre) at the plate thus far, hitting .257, while still not drawing walks or hitting for power (an OPS of only .612). His bat may never develop enough to make it to the majors, and this year is a crucial one for him. I’m sure he was hoping for a stronger start.
Yohan Flande leads the RPhils starters with a 0.00 ERA in two starts (12 IP), with Michael Cisco posting a solid 3.00 ERA in two starts as well. Neither pitcher is striking anyone out. Phillippe Aumont and Vance Worley have both been hit hard in their two starts, while Drew Naylor was effective in his one outing, and will pitch tonight. The bullpen has been very effective with the exception of BJ Rosenberg, who was trying to pitch through an injury, and is now on the DL.
This week the team finishes a 4-game road series at Richmond, then moves on to three games in Harrisburg, where they will likely face number one overall draft pick Stephen Strasburg, who pitched effectively in a rain-shortened start last night, and will probably pitch again on Wednesday, April 21st.
Phuture Phillies 
I though Gillies was so similar to Gose that it was a bad get but better pick it up or keep looking over his shoulder. Brown vs. Strasburg sounds epic. I hope he recovers for that one.
One has to wonder how long Strasberg or Brown for that matter stays in the minors (Raul sadly looks spent).
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Brown has to come in to replace Raul, and Werth has to be resigned. We can call someone up to replace Victorino eventually (if we must)
But, in the minors, do we have any power right handed hitters?
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I’m pretty happy–thrilled, actually–to see Galvis hitting .257 at this point. I’m sure most everyone who here has seen this already, but Beerleaguer had a pretty rapturous assessment of his progress from the Reading beat writer.
http://beerleaguer.typepad.com/beerleaguer/2010/04/scouting-report-has-freddy-flipped-the-switch.html
Again, he’s only 20, but the events of the last week in Philly obviously are a reminder that the current occupant of the SS position isn’t going to be around forever. Straining/tearing a muscle during wind sprints sounds like a definite sign that the aging process is beginning to take hold.
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Suprised that Yohan Flande’s performance has not received much attention from PP fans. He suppossedly has the best change-up in the system and he does not walk anybody. While everyone is watching other pitchers, if Flande continues to avoid walking batters and his breaking ball improves a little, he would likely get to the majors before others.
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Domingo Santana is the real deal. Two great catches in right in the first inning of today’ game in support of Pettibone in Lakewood.
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“But, in the minors, do we have any power right handed hitters?”
We used to.
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Thanks for the report Chuck. I’m going to talk a bit about Gillies and Aumont in my weekly notes column tomorrow night. Short story, I wouldn’t worry at all right now, especially with Aumont.
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dominic brown is listed as day to day
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Flande doesn’t get much love b/c he tops out at 89/90 and really only has two effective pitches, FB/Change. Works fast, though, and has the mental toughness that can lead to success. Adding a plus slider or curve probably gets him at least to the bullpen.
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phillychuck, at this point in flande’s career, the chances of him adding a plus breaking pitch are zero. he’s shown no talent for it this far into his career, and pitchers tend to peak around 25-27 years old, stuff wise. he’s maybe a loogy, and probably a AAA guy in the long term, with a year or two of being used in the majors as a mistake because some manager feels the need to have a lefty instead of a good pitcher.
also, whats going on with Aumont? anybody know?
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So, likely Wednesday, Harrisburg, PA, Strasburg V. Reading Phillies 7 p.m.
Somebody on here had said , at first , that D. Brown collided with Gillies, now the word is Bozied. Anybody sure about that?
The write up on Galvis, says he struck out once in 36 AB’s and he has drawn walks. I looked yesterday and the top player in walks had 4 and I am sure Galvis has at least that many, because it seems to me he has one in the last 3 games or so, and at least one before. Not make the majors? He’s practically there now. He should complete the full season in AA and then advance to AAA next season and be first in line for a call-up. They will always use a good defensive player on a short term or long term basis. Even at the current , let’s make it , .260 rate, and that regresses 20 points for both AAA and MLB, that would be a .220 clip in MLB. Numerous SS’s have played a full season in MLB , and hit for less than that. It all depends on the fielding. That should not be an issue as , I believe , Galvis will begin hitting again and bring those averages higher. Power not essential for a good fielder at that position. I believe Galvis is now at around .240 , which is not bad for a minor league middle infielder, especially 20 in AA.
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The fact that Flande does not have a plus breaking ball, means Flande will not be a LOOGY. He will probably be a starter or nothing at all.
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I thought that Flande velocity was around 86, is that wrong?
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I would quess the Harrisburg game will be sold out by game day. Sometimes I find myself in the area. shame
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My understanding is that Flande throws in the upper 80s and does not hit 90. Also, he doesn’t strike people out enough to be really interesting. Although, I will say he is good at keeping the ball in the yard and he keeps walks down.
I think being a LOOGY is also unlikely because his best pitch is a change-up, which tends not to work as well lefty-on-lefty. You can see his L/R splits on minorleaguesplits.com. He is slightly better against lefties for his career, but it’s not all that strong a difference.
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marfis:
Galvis currently, after walking last night, has 3 walks in 38 ABs, and 2 Ks. Don’t rely on your memory of his performance, check the stats–the link is in my report. He’s hitting .237, with a sub .300 OBP and a sub-.300 SLG. The NL regular SS with the LOWEST batting average in both 2008 (.277) and 2009 (.250) was Jimmy Rollins. Maybe Galvis’s glove will get him a job as a defensive replacement for a second division team right now, but he’s got to get a lot better to play as a regular anywhere in modern baseball. Teams don’t carry Mark Belanger-type SSs anymore.
Flande’s FB sits at 86-87, and tops between 89-91 depending on the day. His change-up has good deception and movement, his fastball sinks, and he works quickly and mostly with good control. His stuff doesn’t look like a LOOGY, but a normal reliever–the change makes him pretty effective against righties. Watching him pitch, I think he throws both a slider and a curve, but neither one looks all that deceptive or sharp-breaking.
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thanks didnt know jimmy rollins had the worst average among shortstops. and flande velocity at 91 is new to me so thanks again
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Gose is really young for the league, wonder why they have so much faith in him, to move him to high a at 18 years old. and why do you think overbeck at his age is not at reading?What bothers me is at lhv we have no real position prospects, i am not a mayberry fan, and at double a very little . I know we made some trades but really only d’naud would be a real positon prospect for us and he woulnt be at double a either.. donald isnt anymore, marson is up, the rest are pitchers.
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mikemike,
The players at LV serve as an extended bench for the Phils. The fashion now (especially for us) is to sign vets for that role.
Gose is actually 19, and will be 20 in August. Not that old for high-A.
Overbeck couldn’t beat Pinckney out for Reading’s 3B slot. The Phils don’t like releasing minor league vets they sign in the offseason unless they stink it up in Spring Training, so Overbeck was pushed back to CLW. If he keeps hitting like he is, he’ll move up.
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Thanks a lot phillychuck, this is great stuff.
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Hernandez sharp so far. A one hitter. 7 K’s thru six innings. Fastball sitting at 88-89.
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thanks phillychuck
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So far in three starts Hernandez has 20 K’s and one walk. Today, a 91 pitch, three hit, 8 inning, 9 K’s, no walk , shutout.
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Hewitt 2-5 with 2 RBIs.
Give me a few more weeks of hitting and I will officially get excited about him.
He was in the team photo for BA prospect hot sheet. And in the chat, they mentioned pitch recognition as still being a problem based in strikeouts
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RE: the Brown collision/injury
Brown collided with Chavez on a pop-foul ball down the 1st base line. Brown dove for the ball and appeared to get somehow knocked by Chavez on the way down.
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There might be some Sabermetric stats churning site somewhere that listing SS’s by a projected out for the season , like 3 AB’s for every game their team played , that might have J. Rollins as the lowest BA among starting SS’s. But I doubt they have 29 players listed ahead of him. Again, I have to just go on memory, So I guess I’ll have to look this stuff up sometime, but I am fairly sure Paul Janish played most of the games at SS for Cincinatti, and I don’t think he batted over .200, and there are likely other teams where the combinations at SS did not hit above .250 either. I watched Pittsburgh from time to time and the guy they finished up with, Ronnie Cedeno might be another. I don’t think there are 29 regulars , one for each team. who batted above Rollins. But, again, I guess I’ll have to look all this up sometime, now.
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Guess the question is if Paul Janish or Ronnie Cedeno would be playing SS on a playoff caliber team?
Problem with Galvis is that there is no way his sub .600 OPS cuts in in the majors. All I ever heard was complains about Eric Bruntlett being worthless and his CAREER ML OPS was 60+ points higher than Galvis’s last season. IS Eric Bruntlett a starting ML SS??
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“I guess I’ll have to look all this up sometime, now”
These days it takes about 2 minutes to look something like this up. 🙂
2008 (NL only), 9/10 among qualifiers, 9/13 among SS with more than 100 games.
2009 (NL only), 9/10 among qualifiers, 12/13 among SS with more than 100 games.
Worst SS BA in the past ten years (for the entire 10 years, not seasonal) for a SS with at least 1000 hames in that time period is .245 (Alex Gonzalez).
Not last, but close to it in 2009. But the point remains; Galvis is going to have to learn to hit if he is to have a real ML career.
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All of this Freddy Galvis talk is driving me a bit nuts. My view of rangy shortstops is they are as more likely to continue to improve at bat well into their mid to late twenties (Smith, Vizquel, and Dave Concepcion, for a few examples, were completely crappy hitters until they were in their mid to late twenties). Galvis is young for his league, appears to be filling out and he is playing a demanding defensive position that can hinder a player from focusing on offense. It’s ridiculously early to be writing him off as an offensive player. The concerns about him are legitimate, but let’s give him time, people – he’s still got a long development curve ahead of him from an offensive standpoint.
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Not writing him off by any means and I certainly hope he does become an everyday caliber player but he is no where close to that today. Guys like Smith, Vizquel, Bowa, Concepcion, etc. are from a different era where SS was a defensive only position. In today’s game, a SS must provide enough offense to stay on the field.
What drives me nuts was the talk about how he should have been brought up to replace Rollins when he was injured. He has a long way to go offensively before he even becomes a quality bench player in the major leagues.
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Agreed that the bar has been set higher for hitting shortstops and agreed it was nuts that people wanted him to replace Rollins (a decision that would have been stupid at a number of levels). However, I disagree that there’s no room for a guy who is primarily a fielder at shortstop – Smith (the most spectactular shortstop I’ve ever seen, bar none) and Concepcion all would have played and started today as, of course, would Vizquel (not sure if he is still active or not). In fact, if you’ve been paying close attention, there is a push back in favor of fielding metrics (see Seattle and Oakland), so I think a light hitting, but great fielding shortstop can still find the field on a regular basis, but they sure as hell can’t hit .225 like Mark Belanger, Bud Harrelson or even Larry Bowa (mid-career Bowa would still player – early and late career Bowa would have been a bench player – another Juan Castro).
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Two issues. One, guys who hit poorly early in their careers usually don’t develop into good hitters later on. Smith, Vizquel and Concepcion are exceptional players because they are atypical of your average developing infielder. Second, when these shortstops played but didn’t hit, their teams typically didn’t win.
I won’t discount the possiblity that Galvis will hit in the future. My only stance is that he needs at least a .700 OPS to justify an MLB starting job. .650 for a utility role.
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I’m with 3up3kkk on this; not writing Galvis off at all, but not nearly ready to project him as a regular either. I mostly agree with Catch 22 as well.
Something to keep in mind about some of the “good field, no hit” guys we are talking about is that in the context of their time most of those could hit a little. Smith didn’t hit much his first few years, but (as I think someone else mentioned) developed into a decent hitter in his late 20s & 30s – decent BA, BBs, SBs with a good % – still no power to speak of (but some doubles and triples), but was for much of his career an average hitter & above average hitter for a SS of his era. Even Vizquel was far from a total zero as a hitter.
In other words, yes, even today a shortstop doesn’t have to (say) hit 20 HR to be a regular if he is an excellant fielder. But he needs to contribute SOMETHING with the bat. A SS who is completely overmatched as a hitter will not start for even a bad team, even if he is a great fielder.
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I am hopeful that Freddie will hit at MLB level but he would have to hit even better than oz by atleast 20 points and higher ops to make up for lack of speed. Galvis will steal 5-10 bases while ozzie stole 35-50. I would be ok with galvis as a starter with .260-10-55-OPS of 650. .270-5-50-OPS of 675 would be fine also. He has a lot of development before he can hope to attain these #’s at the MLB level.
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I think the lowest bar for a guy like Galvis is John McDonald…he of the .592 career OPS. He found the perfect storm of opportunity, 2nd division team, and great fielding to hang on in the Majors for parts of 12 seasons now. And honestly, I tend to think that’s what Galvis’s upside is. Its not a bad upside to have as McDonald has had a nice career and was even a part-time starter for a few years based on his exceptional glove.
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that was me above
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Another point: I fully expect Galvis to be traded this year as he is a easy chip to get rid of in a mid-season trade.
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I wonder(out loud) if Gillies, JC Ramirez, and galvis would get us Lee in july if M’s are out of it and Phils are in need?
Nepp what kind of player do you think Galvis alone could bring? strong power bat off bench, above avg. middle reliever, #5 starter?
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I doubt Galvis alone would bring us much at all. His upside is fringe major leaguer. He’s a nice piece as a “throw-in” for a deal when the other team isn’t quite happy with the player/players they’re getting. I could Galvis on the level of the guy you trade back to the Angels if we want to keep David Herndon and dont have the roster spot or something. There are plenty of no-hit, good glove infielders in the minors.
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Actually herndon sounds about right. Also I realize the phils would probably never trade for Lee for a half year because controversy would begin again when they did not sign him for beyond this year. I would be in favor of this proposed trade however.
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The posting which started all this , did not state that Galvis would not be a high quality MLB starting SS, but that he would not make MLB at all.
The follow up on the “Rollins – lowest BA of all starting SS’s proves what I said, in that it was said out of 15 listed qualified SS’s was the list. There are 30 MLB teams, not 15. This shows that there are numerous SS’s both starters and reserves who hit below .250 in MLB.
The “making a trade for Cliff Lee at Midseason” thing for mostly what they gave up to get him , Stinks of a “Loan”. If the commissioner did not dissallow it , there should be an investigation. That’s almost as off the wall as trading 5 MLB players for Matt Gamel , 2 years ago.
The “trade Freddy Galvis” thing is ill-conceived. That would leave virtually no young, non-AAAA players at SS. SS is an important position, Unlike 3B and C where numerous fill-ins could be available, contrary to what the 3B fetishists would believe. A trade of Galvis would leave no younger types of players with even adequate defensive ability for years to come.
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Honestly, I am intrigued by Freddy Galvis, but could care less if they traded him – he is a “commodity” player in baseball. Every year there are slightly older Freddy Galvises hanging around, just waiting to be acquired. Sure, he could be a 1 in 50 shot and develop into an Omar Vizquel, but the odds are against it. More and more, Villar is looking like our SS of the future, so it trading Galvis allows us to keep Herndon or acquire something else we need at the ML level, I’m all for it.
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Catch 22’s handle is appropriate because that is kind of how I view Freddy Galvis’s trade value. If he looks like a decent MLB piece, the Phillies will want to hang on to him. But if he has little future prospects, the Phillies will hardly get much in return for Galvis.
I think the Phillies are best off adopting a wait and see approach. Villar is still a long way away and Rollins is a free agent after next season. After this season we’ll have a better idea of what direction the organization should take in 2010.
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