Box Score Roundup; 4/14

Box Score Recap

Before we get to the box scores, two quick notes on “prospects” on the big league team. I got a good look at Antonio Bastardo tonight, and really he’s the same guy he’s always been. He struggled with his command and lost the strike zone a number of times, but also flashed solid fastball velo, hitting 93 a few times and sitting 91-92. He didn’t control it particularly well, but when its around the zone its tough to hit because of the velocity. He didn’t throw many changeups, instead going with his slider. It was inconsistent, but when he snapped off a good one, it was an unhittable pitch. He still lacks consistency with it. David Herndon, on the other hand, looked excellent, and this was probably his best appearance I’ve seen from him. His fastball had excellent life, sitting 90-93, and he kept it out of the middle of the plate. He really didn’t need his secondary offerings, as his fastball was sinking and moving and he disposed of the three Nats hitters he faced with great ease. That’s 4 scoreless appearances for him. Because Kendrick has options, he will surely go to AAA when Blanton returns. Bastardo might make way for Romero, again because he has options. The decision on what to do when Lidge comes back will be tougher, but I have to think the Phillies would want to work out a deal with Los Angeles for Herndon’s rights, allowing them to keep him on the 40 man but take him off the 25 man and option him down. He certainly won’t clear waivers at this point, and the Angels would almost definitely take him back. Now, onto the box scores…

AAA: Lehigh Valley lost 5-2.

John Mayberry: 1/4

Mike Zagurski: 1.2 IP – 2 ER – 3 H – 0 BB – 2 K – 1 HR

AA: Reading won 7-3.

Tyson Gillies: 1/4, 3B (1)
Domonic Brown: 2/4, 2B (3)
Freddy Galvis: 1/4

Phillippe Aumont: 5.2 IP – 3 ER – 6 H – 4 BB – 2 K (8 GB – 6 FB)
Mike Stutes: 2 IP – 0 ER – 0 H – 1 BB – 2 K (0 GB – 4 FB)

A+: Clearwater won 7-3.

Anthony Gose: 1/4, 3B (3), SB (4), 1 BB

Trevor May: 1.2 IP – 1 ER – 1 H – 4 BB – 4 K (0 GB – O FB)
Tyler Cloyd: 2 IP – 0 ER – 1 H – 2 K
Edgar Garcia: 1 IP – 0 ER (1 R) – 2 H – 1 BB – 2 K

A: Lakewood won 10-9.

Jonathan Villar: 2/5, 2B (1), 1 BB, SB (2)
Jiwan James: 0/4, 1 BB
Leandro Castro: 2/4, 2B (2), 3B (2)
Sebastian Valle: 2/5, HR (1)
Jeremy Barnes: 2/3, 2B (3), 2 BB
Domingo Santana: 0/3

Jarred Cosart: 5.1 IP – 2 ER – 4 H – 1 BB – 7 K (8 GB – 1 FB)

Notes: I’m not concerned about Aumont or May. Aumont is in the process of re-working his mechanics, he’s going to struggle, and he’s still pretty young for AA. I’d wait another 4-5 starts before really starting to dissect his performances. May was pulled because he racked up huge pitch counts in the first 2 innings. This is a really, really smart move by the Phillies. The consensus opinion is that pitchers are at a much higher risk for injury when they are pitching fatigued, because they tend to alter their mechanics, and that can lead to problems. Throwing 50 pitches in 2 innings and laboring isn’t good for any pitcher, especially a 20 year old arm that isn’t used to throwing tons of innings/pitches. If he didn’t have it, he didn’t have it, get him out and go gettem again in 5 days. Cosart had another solid outing, 1 BB and 7 K, and tons of groundballs.

Discuss!

61 thoughts on “Box Score Roundup; 4/14”

  1. So excited about those studs in Lakewood and watching them grow together. Of the 6, including Collier, what’s the order/likelihood they make the bigs? Valle, Villar, James, Santana, Hewitt, Collier?

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  2. Catchers generally take the longest to develop. If I had to guess big league debuts, it would be

    James > Villar > Valle > Collier > Hewitt > Santana

    And Castro before Villar and Valle and probably even James

    I just have a hunch that Jiwan is going to take off this year. Like, really quickly, despite his inexperience as a position player. Hes a ridiculously gifted athlete who has a good understanding of the game and the strike zone, I think he can move relatively quickly.

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  3. I agree with PP’s order, except for Collier over Hewitt and Santana. Hewitt, as bad as he was last year, he was no worse than Collier. Collier has an injury that may keep him from progressing again this year. When BP’s KG said he prefered Hewitt to Collier even after Hewitt’s 2 terrible seasons, that was enough for me.
    I hate to say, but I think Collier should be last on the list, because I think he is the least likely to make the majors.

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  4. Kyle Kendrick is the same as he ever was. Only now he has more pitches to nibble with. I’ve never seen a pitcher who is so afraid to throw strikes to hitters.
    Confident with a new season, he tried to throw strikes in the 1st inning of his first outing. He had 6 laser beams in a row hit off of him. Because of those results, he reverts right back to nibbling, especially to any LH hitter, or any good RH hitter. I honestly do not know how he corrects his problem. The guy is afraid to throw strikes for fear of getting hit, yet he can not strike anyone out either.

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  5. I was at the game last night, and I came away pretty pleased with Aumont. I’m still not sure if his long term future is as a starter, but he battled well last night. I think he pitched better than his final line indicated, as some of the hits were seeing eye singles.

    Drabek on the other hand, I’m not so sure about. I’ve seen him pitch a few times in person now, and I realize that he’s still young, but I’m not sure if he’s ever going to be “special” in the big leagues. He’s still getting hurt by left handed batters, and gives up a good amount of extra base hits. His fastball was sitting around 90-91. If he could get it to 94-95, he’d be that much more dangerous, but you could say that for a lot of guys. In a few years, I don’t think anyone is going to be all that disappointed that we traded him. To me (and again, I’m just going by what my eyes tell me), he tops out as a good #2, or possibly even a #3.

    Another guy that nobody really talks about, and might be a bit old for the level (he’ll be 26 in June), is Matt German. German pitched last night and is very deceiving from the left handed side. He’s your typical Mike Myers type pitcher (tops out at around 82 MPH on the fastball, and his curve sits at 70-72), but has a real herky jerky type motion that seemed to cause fits last night. He was very successful last year before he got hurt, and seems to be picking up where he left off. I think he could potentially be a LOOGY. Then again, he could become another RJ Swindle as well (although in my opinion, the big club didn’t use Swindle well at all, pitching him essentially in long relief instead of a LOOGY role)

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  6. Watching players smash good low pitches this season, it is evident if you can’t change their eve level with a high pitch ala
    Doc,Happ etc and are not willing to back them off by pitching inside then you have little chance in the majors.
    Its a pity for KK but he needed to establish respect.

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  8. Anyone know what Aumont was on the gun last night?

    Cosart’s combination of Ks and ground ball outs look very special to me! It’s early, but I am curious to see who his comps are.

    And I love the daily roundup. Keep up the great work!

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  9. I’ll comment on the minor league stuff later, but I don’t think they should send Herndon down – he’s been one of their better relief pitchers and his stuff is electric. Sure, they should try to work out a trade (assuming it’s reasonable), just because it prevents them from going through the season with a gun pointed at their head, but, so far, Herndon deserves to stay in the big leagues on the merits. He’s certainly the biggest surprise we’ve had on the team since the evolution of Jayson Werth.

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  10. What was Aumont’s velocity last night – reports are generally that he sits in the 93-95 range with occasional pitches in the 96-97 range. If so, I think there’s very little question that he’s at least as good a prospect as Drabek and probably has more upside (but also greater chance of not succeeding at all).

    In a few years, there’s a high likelihood that the only player we’ll end up missing from the Halladay trade is D’Arnaud, and that assumes that Ruiz can’t continue to play well and Valle does not become a top catching prospect. Taylor may be a super player, but we’ll have outfielders galore with similar talents. I was so sad to see him go, but they can probably get similar production from some of their other young players – the issue is more one of timing – how do we bridge the time gap between the current generation and the young hot shots. I sense a couple more “rent a player” transactions on the horizon.

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  11. Drago on Aumont (and Drabek): http://readingeagle.com/article.aspx?id=212953

    “…Aumont, a former No. 1 pick of the Mariners, also struggled in the early going. He gave up single runs in the first and second before looking dominant in the third and fourth.

    He rang up back-to-back strikeouts in the third with a sharp-breaking curve and retired eight batters in a row at one point.

    Aumont was removed in the sixth after losing the plate, just an out short of being able to pick up the win. The Phillies snapped the 3-3 tie with four runs in the bottom half of the inning…”

    No mention of Aumont velocity, but I like to see that he looked dominant at times and used a nice curve.

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  12. When you were a child, did you ever touch a burning hot stove and burn your hand? If so, you now understand why KK is so afraid to throw strikes.

    On Bastardo, that was the worst he’s looked this year and he was still fairly solid (very similar to Romero in that his wildness both helps and hurts him). He got squeezed majorly on that 2nd walk he allowed. Once Dubee calmed him down (by ripping him a new on on the mound), he was fine.

    On Herndon: I think that was the worst he’s looked all season and he was very very solid. His velocity was down a smidge but that movement is ridiculous. There must be some way to keep him even if it means giving something up. He was built to play in front of our defense in CBP.

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  13. I was sitting right behind the plate last night and noticed that for once, the Scouts guns and the gun on the scoreboard were pretty much in synch.

    Aumont hovered around 90-91, and topped out at 93. Drabek was around 91-92, and I think he might have hit 94 once.

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  14. They way a bullpen fluctuates throughout a season the Phillies might not to do anything with Herndon but let him carry his pink bag.

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  15. NEPP, I agree. KK was afraid to throw strikes because every time he did it was smacked. I don’t remember a single swing and miss his entire outing.

    Looking forward to see if Gillies can show any kind of OBP he did last year. It’s early yet…

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  16. KK simply doesnt have swing and miss stuff. He never has. He HAS to pitch to contact and now he’s afraid to even do that. He falls behind guys in every AB and then has to groove one to avoid the walk.

    If it were me, I would either skip his next start by moving Happ up a day (easy to do as there’s an off day and it would be on regular rest for JA) or let Figgy slide into that rotation spot. He’s still stretched out from Spring Training and he’s basically pitching on a starters’ schedule already anyway.

    I don’t see them letting Herndon go at this point.

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  18. I figer by the time they have to make a decision and move on Herndon, someone else will be hurt. Herndon is a keeper. He likes pitching down by the Delaware River.

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  19. Surprised there was no mention of Hewitt. 2-5 with 3 RBIs (and 3 strikeouts too) and hitting over 400.

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  20. I agree with PP and disagree with NEPP … thought last night was the best Herndon looked in any outing. Yes, his velocity was down 1-2 MPH, but his location was spot on. Every pitch was down. In prior outings, his control was not great, he ran some deep counts and got some balls up. This was easily his best and easiest inning of the year.

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  21. Seems like Aumont can’t decide what he wants to be either a power or finesse pitcher. It seems when he tries to up his velocity he loses his command and control. He might be more effective as a ground ball, contol pitcher who pitches to contact than trying to blow them away with wild heat. Drago pointed out the following in his piece today:

    Phillippe Aumont had better velocity and a better curve than in his Reading debut, but he was a wild: He had four walks and two wild pitches over 52/3 innings.

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  22. Good to see the Phils minor league department continues to stretch out their young starters and build arm strength. They appear to be still holding to the 100 pitch count limit they followed last year. The BlueClaws blog had Cosart at 95 pitches last night after 5.1 innings before Parent lifted him. He pitched to numerous deep counts because most Hagerstown batters had trouble squaring him up by fouling off pitches when they did make contact to go with his 7 strikeouts.

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  23. A few Phillies questions in an ESPN Jim Callis chat (this chat is free on ESPN, where I got it from, and subscription on BA, so it’s OK to post!!)

    Justin (PA)
    The ceiling for Domonic Brown is______________.

    Jim Callis (2:03 PM)
    All-star, on a regular basis.

    Joe (Minneapolis)
    Hi Jim. I am very excited by some of the young arms down in Lakewood and Clearwater this Spring. Cosart, May and Hyatt to name a few. Is the BA team bullish on these prospects or should I temper my enthusiasm?

    Jim Callis (2:21 PM)
    Color us bullish. The Phillies system has been thinned out, but they still have a lot of intriguing, high-upside players in the lower levels of the system.

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  24. KK is a AAAA pitcher at best. “KK simply doesnt have swing and miss stuff” is true but understates the problem. No starting pitcher in the past 40 years (at least; knuckleballers perhaps excepted) has been successful long term with his K/9 ratio.

    With all the talk of his improvement last year, his K rate is still the same. It was a bit higher in the majors, but with a very small sample size (and still too low). His minor league K rate was lousy. You can get by with that at AAA if you do everything else right and/or get lucky, but not at the major league level.

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  25. Can’t express how much I like the discussions on box score round up. I would like to see aumont more in the 93-94 mph range if thats what the gun reading really were last night. Also liking valle starting to heat up and anth hewitt lets hope he can keep going.

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  26. I too have been impressed with Herndon and hope he sticks around with that sinking FB.

    And has anyone else noticed the gas and sink that Chad Durbin’s been bringing? I’ve seen him hit 93-94 quite a few times this year on the tv mph graphic, but isn’t he normally a 88-90 guy?

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  27. Don’t see that Herndon has done poorly enough to be sent down. Short term, there probably isn’t a necessity for it , anyhow. Short term………………………………………………………..
    Blanton replaces Kendrick
    Romero replaces Bastardo
    Lidge replaces Figueroa
    Through the course of the season a couple of minor pitching injuries will arise here and there. Maybe more. Why risk leaving it short. Moyer is in last year of contract , and might go south for a period of time like last season. After September 1, the requirement is made.

    Hewitt still hitting well , but a couple of strikeouts starting to pop up, still the only .400 hitter they have. Ruf next around .350, Barnes around .346 , rest of the regulars between that and .300 , except Buschini and Valle at .250. No regulars under .250. Hope they can keep piling on with that.

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  28. Keep in mind that Herndon himself can spend some time on the DL, so if Lidge was ready to come back when everybody else was healthy, they could interpret any minor ache or soreness as a reason to bide some time with Herndon on the DL. He can even make minor league rehab appearances as long as he is on the major league DL. Its been done before with rule 5ers. My vote would be to keep Lidge making his rehab appearances for a good long time though, as long as everybody else is looking sharp, we don’t need to throw the wild card in to the mix.

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  29. Yes, Durbin looks to be back in the same condition he was in early 08 before he was overworked. His fastball is popping and his slider is tight again.

    On the Kendrick K/9 thing…the only name that comes to mind is Paul Byrd (if you consider that long-term success). You need to NEVER walk guys if you have a K ratio that low and KK walks a TON of batters unfortunately…and his sinker doesnt induce enough groundballs for him to work like an Aaron Cook type pitcher.

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  30. Nice update on the nightly round-up. Glad to hear about May. Agreed to quick to judge based on early results, but here are the numbers that have my attention from each team thus far:

    LHV: 4 & 6 as in 4 Walks and only 6 SO from Mayberry. His .310 avg is nice to see.

    Reading: .296 BA for Galvis. Hitting better than expected so far. I would expect that to drop.

    CLW: 0.60 WHIP. Only 1 walk and 12 SO for Hyatt.

    LKW: .409 BA. .773 SLG & 1.253 OPS for Hewitt. Hopefully that is not a mirage.

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  31. My feeling on Aumont is this starting assignment is to stretch him out in order to straighten his mechanics out with more innings. It is hard to work on mechanics when you are a reliever, as you may need to pitch any given day. Once they get to that point, they can make an evaluation of what they actually have.
    I believe the guy will be a closer, simply b/c his stuff will be huge in that role. He can come in and air it out for an inning. He can’t do that now, b/c when he does he has no idea where the ball is headed.

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  32. The Byrd comparison really highlights how unlikely it is that Kendrick will ever again have any major league success. Kendricks’d K/9 rate is much lower than Byrd’s, and Byrd’s includes a normal age rated decline. When Byrd broke in, his K/9 rate was FAR better than Kendrick’s. And as you said Kendrick’s BB rate is higher.

    Though oddly Kendricks’s K rate so far this year is significantly better than his career rate. Still too low, and a small sample size, and it’s not much consolation given how badly he’s been rocked.

    Too bad, though, seems like a good kid. Still, how many players with his skill set have even as much of a major league career as he had?

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  33. From a Claw chat today

    Who is next years Heyward?
    Klaw (12:20 PM)

    He was number 3 on my top prospects list heading in 2009, after Wieters and Price. Candidates would include Mike Stanton, Dustin Ackley, Domonic Brown, and Aaron Hicks.

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  35. ****Though oddly Kendricks’s K rate so far this year is significantly better than his career rate. Still too low, and a small sample size, and it’s not much consolation given how badly he’s been rocked.****

    sadly, his walk rate is identical to his SO rate. Not a good sign. I agree completely on KK. I just dont see how he makes it as a starter. At best, he’s a middle reliever in the mold of a Clay Condrey type and that’s his “upside”. There are probably a half dozen guys in the minors that could cover that role (Worley, Stutes, etc) and perhaps be better at it than him.

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  36. Even Pineiro’s worst K rate was better than Kendrick over his career.

    The list of pitchers who have pitched 1,000 or more innings in the last 20 years with a K rate less than 4.5 is short. Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, Kirk Rueter, Ricky Bones, Bob Tewksbury, Brian Anderson and Steve Sparks. Of those, Cook and Tewksbury are the only ones to post above average ERAs.

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  37. Larry M – Byrd’s career K/9 was 4.9. Early in his career he struck out more batters. But, he was well below 5 for majority of his career.

    Kendrick’s first 2 years were 3.6 & 3.9, respectively. But, it increased to 5.1 last year and is at 4.8 over his 2 starts this year. The sample size is small, but his K/9 numbers are comparable to those of Byrd.

    As noted by others, Kendrick’s biggest problem is his control. His rookie year, he had a 1.9 BB/9. In 08, it jumped to 3.3. This year, it is 4.8. Byrd’s career BB/9 was 2.1.

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  38. Lots of good commentary from everyone. Bastardo looked like he couldn’t find a consistent release point the first part of the inning and then Dubee came out and said something and suddenly Bastardo’s release point looked fine and his ball started doing exacxtly what it was supposed to do. Difficult to explain why… As for Herndon, he just pitches like a guy that knows what his strengths are and doesn’t get hurt with pitches he can’t throw. I agree that KK will get sent down when Blanton comes back and I assume they’ll try to get Figuerora through waivers and store him at AAA when Lidge comes back. We sure do have quite a few prospects that look like they could be playing in Philly in a few years. Its a fun time to be a fan!

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  40. Can we give Bastardo a break. He was been a starter all his career.

    Maybe he will get a start when Romero comes back. If he does well good. If not bring in an old head. KK looks cooked. He needs to get tough and back them off.

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  41. Bastardo has a big upside as a reliever and, just maybe, as a starter. He’s a lefty who hides the ball well and pitches in the low to mid 90s (hit 96 today) – if he learns to consistently command a breaking ball he’s going to be big trouble.

    Herndon is one of those rare people who can rear back, try to those a fastball and what comes out is a nasty pitch that is not only thrown hard, it sinks and moves laterally. You can’t teach it, you can just learn how to hone it. He’s a keeper as far as I can see.

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  43. So why again did so many people want Moyer shipped out for KK? Hes a nice luxury to have waiting in AAA but not much else. I assume that category wasnt anybody on here.

    I dont think Herndon is in danger of going anywhere. Id like to keep Figgy as well if possible, but well see how injuries work out. But the assumption that Kendrick gets sent down for Blanton, Bastardo for Romero, and Figgy for Lidge seems to be a safe one. Id say Bastardo and Figueroa both have a chance to stick around if other injuries arise. Id still like to see Bastardo given a chance to be a starter, but I agree with the current situation that he has to be our lefty reliever for now.

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  47. That’d be his 2nd of the year…good for him. I would expect him to get pitched around a bit more if he keeps this up.

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  49. People need to realize James is so new to all this, it’s to be expected. Hewitt has had two years of struggle and reflection to work through his issues. James has had none of this, nor have pitchers had a need to make adjustments … maybe they are now.

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  50. I’m not too worried about James or too terribly excited about Hewitt. If both are still hitting in June, we might have something. Till then, its fun to watch.

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  51. Agreed. Would really love to hear someone talk about Hewitt who has actually seen him play this year. Is there something definitive about his play that is different from the past two years?

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  52. I believe there was a report from someone (don’t remember who) that talked to him. Hewitt said that the first two years he had a real hard time recoginizing a breaking ball and now he can pick it up out of the pitchers hand. This makes this current hot streak something to getexcited about for me. If he truly couldn’t pick up a breaking ball the first two years and now can, well we have seen how he has been these first few games.

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  53. Great stuff!

    Not worried about James but I am excited about Hewitt. This guy has struggled since he was drafted and now he looks like he is actually progressing. What’s not to get excited about? I know it’s early but hell, how many people on here in the past shook their head after reading his box score? I know I have. Good for him.

    I am really, really impressed with Durbin and Herndon.

    I don’t know what to make of KK. I was really pulling for him and now…just don’t know. I thought we would always get 1 viable starter out of Carpenter/Savery/KK/Bastardo but now, if Bastardo reall becomes a reliever, we may not get a single one. Yes KK has had a nice run, but he’s looked real bad.

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  54. Thanks Toddzilla. I’m getting really, really excited about Hewitt.

    I wonder what some legitimate scouts would have to say about his hot streak. Recognizing a breaking ball makes him a completely different player.

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  55. I was just reviewing the affiliates rosters and have a few observations/questions.

    Trevor May’s line is sick. 14 Ko’s 2 hits in 7.2. I see he pitches 3-4 innings per game. Is he on a pitch count until they build him up the next few years?

    Mathieson. 6 innings 0 runs again(just like last year). Will they call him up this year if he continues? I hope so.

    Not happy with Gillies and Gose Kos to BBs aside from the low averages. Is Gillies over matched at AA or just in a slump?

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  56. Joe – come on, they’ve only played a week or so thus far – particularly with hitters, I wouldn’t read too much into their performance thus far. Not only that, but Gose and Gillies have jumped a level (and Gillies has gone from a great hitting league to an average hitting league). Give those guys a month and a half and then check back. I think they’ll both be fine.

    As for May, he’s on a pitch count most likely and, last outing he struggled with control. But the strikeouts are real – the dude appears to have some serious stuff. If and when his command improves a little more, he’s going to be absolutely lethal. He and Cosart are fast risers and, I think, within a year or so, we’ll forget all about how much we miss Drabek (don’t think we’ll forget about D’Arnadu, however – he appears to be going places).

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  57. Thanks catch. I put those things out there so more knowledgable people could put it in context for me.

    Any level 14 KO’s in 7.2 is excellent.

    What’s Hyatt’s story? He seems to get a high KO ration as well.

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  58. Hyatt is a college pitcher who should do well in A+ ball. My experience is that the rubber hits the road for those guys in AA – if he gets to AA and performs (particularly if K rates are high and BB rates are under control), then we can take him more seriously. I would also take him more seriously now if I received reports that he was throwing in the mid-90s, but I haven’t heard that (or anything else for that matter – if anyone knows Hyatt’s velocity, please chime in).

    But May and Cosart are legit. hot shot prospects and don’t be surprised if Colvin develops along those lines as well.

    For all the young prospects we traded in the last year there is a ton of players to be excited about. There’s way more talent in the system than there appeared to be in, say, 2007 or so. But what’s there tends to be at the lower levels. At AAA, it’s Mathieson, Mayberry (kind of) and a bunch of AAAA players – and that’s how the Phillies like to run the system – they mostly use AAA for their 24th and 25th man roster moves. Which routinely makes LhV a team with very few bona fide prospects – the real big-time prospects league is typically AA – that’s where stars of the future typically play the longest – often a full season or more (Brown will probably play a full season in Reading, or perhaps even longer). Rarely do good players play several years at AAA, but it does happen (see Utley and Happ).

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