Around the System (First Base)

Around the System

With Ryan Howard signed through the 2011 season, there isn’t an immediate need at first base but the lack of possibility should be reason for concern as next years draft roles around.  See below the fold for the details:

Lehigh Valley

Andy Tracy, Will be 36 in December; acquired as a free agent.  .254/.361/481; 26 HR 96 RBI; 74 BB 110K; 453 at bats; 7 SB; .275 with RISP; .992 fielding %; 8 errors. Tracy does alot of things well, hits for power, has a good eye, drives in runs, and plays a good first base.  All that being said, he is 36 and is clearly not the future at first base for the Phils.  Personally, I hope Lehigh Valley brings Tracy back to play 1B again next year.  He is very good in the clubhouse with the younger guys and proves some insurance if Howard does a stint on the DL. There are few better at first in the International League.

Reading

Brian Stavisky, Age 29, Acquired as a free agent prior to the ’09 season.  .279/.377/.454 with 11HR 66 RBI and 3 SB. .327 with RISP.  .986 fielding %, 12 errors. Stavisky is a solid offensive player who struggles at times defensively and appears to be a AAAA guy.  He will be a free agent and his return is dependant on the best opportunity that presents itself for him.

Kevin Mahar, AGe 28, Acquired as a free agent prior to the ’09 season. Also played over 50 games in the OF.  .314/.358/.457.  12HR and 54 RBI in 407 AB’s.  7 SB. .351 vs. LHP; .245 vs. RHP. .317 with RISP. 6 errors (.987 fielding % at 1st base). Mahar had a very good year, hitting consistently all year.  His RH vs. LH splits are interesting, as he crushes lefties but is average at best vs. righties.  He will be a free agent in the off-season and depending on Andy Tracy’s status, could be in AAA with Lehigh Valley, or just as easily be with another organization that provides him with a shot at the majors that he wont have in Philly.

Clearwater

Michael Durant, Age 22, Drafted by the Phils in the 4th round of the 2005 draft. .211/.312/.365; 12HR and 37 RBI in 375 AB’s. 38% K rate. .192 vs. RHP; .198 post all star; .196 with RISP. 15 errors, .984 fielding %. A horrible year for Durant, once considered a true power hitting prospect for the Phils.  A 40 man roster decision will need to be made on Durant and I would fully expect him to be Rule 5 eligible.  He simply has not shown he can hit pitching consistently at any level.  In addition, his fielding was poor this year.  I would not be surprised to see Durant released.

Matt Rizzotti, Will be 24 in December; Drafted by the Phils in the 6th round of the 2007 draft. .263/.351/.454. 13 HR 58 RBI in 350 AB’s. 26% K rate. .121 vs. LHP in very limited AB’s. .303 with RISP. Played 28 games at 1B (the rest at DH); 6 errors; .974 fielding %. A decent year for Rizzotti, although played the field on a very limited basis.  Depending on roster moved in Reading, could make the Reading roster or still be in a similar role in CLearwater.

Lakewood

Jim Murphy, Age 25, Phils 17th round pick in 2008 draft. .279/.393/..467. 14 HR 67 RBI in 398 AB’s. 33% K Rate. .328 with RISP. 2 errors; 997 fielding %. Murphy had a nice year this year, although his strikeout rate was a bit high for the power he produced.  After hitting just .220 in Williamsport in his rookie campaign Murphy put himself back on the charts this year, albeit old for this league.  Next season: Starting 1B at Clearwater.

Jeremy Hamilton, Will be 23 in November; Phils 5th round pick in 2008 draft. .255/.344/.357. 4 HR 32 RBI in 294 AB’s.  25% K Rate. .200 vs. LHP; .275 with RISP.61 games at 1B; 7 errors, (.987). Not enough power out of Hamilton for a prospect at first base and needs to play better defense. Where will Hamilton be next year? Probably in CLearwater seeing some time at 1B and DH.

Williamsport

Darin Ruf, Age 23, Drafted by the Phils in the 20th round of the 2009 draft.  For GCL Phils: .326/.400/..395 in 43 AB’s.  0 HR and 6 RBI’s.  For Williamsport: .301/.377/.496 in 133 AB’s. 3 HR and 24 RBI.  .371 with RISP; Combined: .307/.383/.472.  3 HR and 3o RBI. 2 errors, .994 fielding %. Ruf impressed after coming out of Creighton to put up nice numbers.  A promotion to Lakewood surely is in order.

Stephen Batts, Will be 24 in January. Phils 19th round pick in 2009 draft. .195/.259/.282 in 149 AB’s.  2HR 11 RBI’s; 31% K Rate.  .184 for RISP. No errors. Not sure how patient the Phils will be with a 24 year old that didn’t hit .200 in Short Season ball.

Francisco Muriilo, Will be 23 in October. Signed by the Phils as a free agent in 2004.  .253/.314/..452 in 146 AB’s.  5 HR and 16 RBI.  34% K rate. .216 vs. lHP. .196 Post all star. .182 with RISP. 1 error, .993 fielding %. Murillo showed some flashes this year and made the New York Penn League all star team, but struggled the last month of the season.  If Murillo is around in the Spring, it will be 6th year playing in the organization.

Gulf Coast Phils

Jonathan Singleton, Age 18, Phils 8th round pick in 2009 draft. .290/.395/..440 in 100 AB’s.  2 HR and 12 RBI’s. 13% K rate. .355 vs. LHP. .269 with RISP.  2 errors, .991 fiedling %. Singleton looked very good as a 17 year old playing in his first professional season.  I see a season in Williamsport next season.

Cory Wine, Will be 23 in October.  .189/.326/..216 in 74 AB’s. 0 HR and 7 RBI. .069 with RISP. 1 error. .993 fiedling %. Again a 23 year old, hitting below .200 at the Rookie level.  Probably the end of the line for Wine.

Ryan Bollinger, Age 18, .174/.240/.217 in 23 AB’s. 0 HR and 0 RBI. Bollinger signed late in the GCL season.  It simply depends if the Phils saw anything at all of interest in the young 47th rounder.

39 thoughts on “Around the System (First Base)”

  1. So this post could be summed up as, “Let’s hope Ryan Howard stays healthy.”

    Singleton is the only player that is really a prospect – and he has the potential to be a really nice player.

    I was very disappointed with Hamilton this year. I was expected him to be a Mark Grace/Rico Brogna type.

    – Jeff

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  3. as far as the durant thing goes does he havea shot going to the majors with any team cause obviosly his future isn’t in phillie

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  4. A pretty uninspiring group on the whole, though that’s really no different from the rest of the organization’s infield prospects.

    As Jeff O says above, Singleton is far and away the most intriguing guy out of this group. Depending on how he looks at instructs and in spring training, I could absolutely see him starting next year at Lakewood. He showed excellent command of the strike zone in his debut (15.3% BB, 13.0% K), so I don’t think a guy with his approach would necessarily be overwhelmed in the SAL.

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  6. his OBP form this season was better than Howard’s Ibanez’s, Rollins, Feliz’s, Ruiz’s And victorino’s. I know that its a small sample size, but 15% walk rate is very impressive.

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  7. The Phillies have shown that they will be aggressive with promoting young promising players from the GCL straight to Lakewood. I think Singleton winds up in NJ next spring, if only to get him regular at-bats for a full season. If he has problems, he can still be dropped to Williamsport and be age-appropriate.

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  8. I would actually like to see what Hamilton could do if he had the chance to start 1B at Clearwater. Hamilton’s defense saved a lot of errors for other players. I feel that we have not really seen what Hamilton can do.

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  9. What about Rizzotti? Those power numbers are undeniable! 350 ab’s 13 homeruns, 26 doubles. I wonder what he would of done if he got another hundred abs. Possibly hit 20 and 40???

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  15. In my view, Rizzotti is a very marginal prospect. The question is not whether he will replace Howard, but, rather, make it above AA. He’s about as far as a likely replacement for Howard as one can reasonably get. He’d have to go gangbusters this year to change his prospect status.

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  16. The 1B situation at LVIP, I see, you start by looking at the OF.. Now, you got Taylor, D. Brown (don’t see none of that must remain at AA stuff, he got 150 AB’s at AA and did all right and will make strides in AFL) and I’ll go with Quinton Berry in CF. That leaves Mayberry, who has too much to be a liittle used reserve, so he slides to 1B. I don’t see a trade to an MLB club who will use him in the MLB, he needs to improve. DH’ing and backing up at 1B, I say Susdorf can handle that for the season. So, in this well reasoned scenario, there is no room at the Inn for Andy Tracy.

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  17. The 1B situation at AA Reading I see as Rizzotti starts and you keep Durant as back-up and alternate with Rizzotti at 1B and DH. Again, you look at the OF. I see Derrick Mitchell as the best guy there and best bet to return to organiztion. At CF, I think they still may have rights to Javis Diaz and they have Arlon Quiroz there , and , I suppose they could bring back Gus Milner in Right. So, as that level seems presently constituted, I don’t see alot of benefit to using some of the OF’s as DH regulars, so, if they don’t add some outsiders at that position at the level, then they should continue with Durant as 1b/DH developmental player, because I don’t think he will be snapped up in the Rule 5 draft.

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  18. First Base is not a huge concern for the Phils. Many guys can play 1B if Howard was injured. There are a couple of guys like Dobbs and Hoover who can play it. Mayberry was a good 1B in College. Utley could slide over for a few games, although when we get to second basemen we’re going to hope that he never gets injured or moved. Mayberry was a good 1B in College. He is a great athlete and would increase his value if he could play 1B whenever needed. Cervanek and Tracy can play the position although who knows if they’ll be back. The future looks like Singleton, an outfielder –who is completely blocked by our OF depth in the organization or some yet undrafted kid. Hamilton is streaky with a good glove but will never hit for power. If he became like Mark Grace or Rico Brogna, I’d be thrilled.

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  19. The Clearwater situation I see as Hamilton starts and gets the priority over Murphy. Murphy can get solid playing time at DH and as alternate at 1B. because outside of Anthony Gose, and they may start former hot prospects D’Arby Myers and T.J. Warren, don’t see many candidates as a full time DH.

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  20. Lakewood, Ruf to start is essential, I say. Singleton makes it here as DH and alternates at 1B. Outside of the starters I project in OF: Zach Collier, Jiwan James , and Leandro Castro, I see no strong full time DH candidates there, or among the Infielders or Catchers.

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  21. For the Williamsport ccntingent at Extended Spring Training next season, I pencil in Ryan Bollinger, as he improves in Instructional League. Before the Williamsport season starts , they can add competition from the College players they select in the Draft. They will also need a skeleton crew of starters for the GCL contingent at EST, and for this I would select 1B/OF Luis Unda from Venezuela. I reasoned it out to bring 8 starters and a couple extra catchers from Latin America to start off at EST, and this is really the best course and the best selection.

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  22. And , of course , the Latin American contingent brought to EST can compete with USHS players selected in the Draft.

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  24. Please give me your opinion. My friend and I are having a debate. He thinks Gose starts the year in Lakewood, but I think he gets moved up to Clearwater. What are your thoughts? Thanks.

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  25. Bellman-

    Never, ever suggest moving utley to first, even for just a few games. anybody that we put at second base in his place makes our defense worse, and by more than a little bit. he is far and away the best defensive second baseman in baseball. Has been for 3 years now. I’d rather see bruntlett at first because it will help the defense more than starting him at second in place of utley will.

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  26. if they keep murillo where do u think he will play next year

    Probably Lakewood, but if it were my decision, I’d probably let Murillo go and give Singleton and Ruf the 1B/DH at bats for the BlueClaws.

    Please give me your opinion. My friend and I are having a debate. He thinks Gose starts the year in Lakewood, but I think he gets moved up to Clearwater. What are your thoughts? Thanks.

    Gose definitely gets promoted to Clearwater.

    In my view, Rizzotti is a very marginal prospect… He’d have to go gangbusters this year to change his prospect status.

    I’ve been surprised by Rizzotti’s and Hamilton’s struggles in pro ball. Both put up pretty impressive numbers in college — including excellent control of the strike zone — but that success hasn’t led to success in the minors. Rizzotti’s best case scenario right now is looking like Andy Tracy — a Quad-A hitter who gets a few pinch hit at bats when rosters expand in September.

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  27. i think gose will start in clearwater he has improved so mush since the 08 season if spring training goes well he will be in clearwater is my guess

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  28. Definitely CLW for Gose. Why would he repeat Lakewood? Too good for that and repeat sends a wrong and very bad signal. Rizzotti seems marginal to me also. Not at all young for his league, so an .800 OPS and doesn’t play the field much isn’t going to get it done. Looks a lot like the Slayden story to me. He can get his ABs as a DH doesn’t cut it. If the guy is viewed as inadequate on D, he has to learn, or he is simply going to flunk out.

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  29. On the whole the Phils priority in the draft next year should be infield help. Outside of Galvis, who do they really have? We have pitching depth, OF depth, hell we even have a little depth at C. We NEED a 3B. I read this morning that the Brewers may consider dealing Gamel. Doubtful, but he could be a big piece.

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  30. Ruf will definitely start somewhere next year based on what he showed this year. It will most likely be at Lakewood but due to his age, they’ll consider Clearwater for him. The other factor will be whether they want to push Singleton to Lakewood. If Singleton goes to L Wood, he’ll start there and Ruf will go to Clearwater. I don’t think that Murillo, Hamilton, Rizzotti (a disappointment to me), or Durant look like major leaguers at this point. The decision on where to play Singleton (who they do believe has that potential) will effect all the others. As to the person that said the Phils could sub Hoover at first for Howard, do you really expect anyone to value your opinion after that comment?

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  31. Philliesnation.com is posting a report on the top 25 prospects in the Phillies organization (they are adding one to the list every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday) and they are down to the final 5. Drabek, Brown, Taylor, and D’Arnaud are no-brainers. I’m still trying to figure out who the other top prospect is. Could it be Rosenberg or Mathieson? Here is the list for your review:

    6. Trevor May, RHP
    7. Joe Savery, LHP
    8. Vance Worley, RHP
    9. Sebastian Valle, C
    10. Mike Stutes, RHP
    11. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
    12. Anthony Gose, OF
    13. Colby Shreve, RHP
    14. Anthony Hewitt, 3B
    15. Justin De Fratus, RHP
    16. Sergio Escalona, LHP
    17. Yohan Flande, LHP
    18. Julian Sampson, RHP
    19. John Mayberry, Jr., OF
    20. Mike Cisco, RHP
    21. Freddy Galvis, SS
    22. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP
    23. Domingo Santana, OF
    24. Jonathan Singleton, 1B
    25. Drew Naylor, RHP

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  32. Looking at who’s missing from the list, it has to be Mathieson, Carpenter, or Rosenberg. Not sure on what planet Hewitt, Mayberry, Sampson, Worley rate quite as high as they’re listed. I wouldn’t put Savery quite that high, either.

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  33. Just shows how subjective this stuff is. BA just issued their tip 20 for the GCL. Phils had 3 in top 10 and 4 in top 20

    The Phillies have an affinity for signing raw athletes who offer projection but require plenty of polish, so it was no surprise that they led all organizations with four players on our GCL list: righthander Jarred Cosart (4), first baseman Jonathan Singleton (7), outfielder Domingo Santana (10) and shortstop Jonathan Villar (18). Philadelphia’s top pick (second round) in the 2009 draft, outfielder Kelly Dugan, didn’t make the Top 20 but showed some potential as a switch-hitter with a solid frame and average speed.

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  34. I thought about Carpenter, but I don’t think I would put him ahead of Mathieson or Rosenberg on a top prospects list.

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  35. Well, none of the 3 I listed makes my top 5. Carpenter and Rosenberg maybe not top 10. I’d have Mathieson close to 5, if I truly believed he was over his injuries. He is the top ceiling among these guys.

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