Box Score Roundup; August 20th

Its time for the Friday edition. Before digging into the box scores, just an update. I’m planning on writing a series of draft reviews for the 2003, 2004 and 2005 drafts in the next few weeks. My review of the 2002 draft was one of the first things I wrote when I started this site, and I wanted to get back to that idea. My reviews won’t be as in depth as the 2002 review, but frankly, I probably wasted too many words on that one anyway. I think it takes time to evaluate a prospect, certainly 2-3 years at least, so there isn’t much short term value in looking at 2007 and 2008 yet, but we can definitely paint a better picture of 2003-2005 at this point. So look for that next week. Until then, lets tackle last night’s box scores

AAA: Lehigh Valley lost 4-3 and won 9-4.

* John Mayberry went 1/2 with a BB in Game 1. And thats really all thats worth mentioning from Game 1
* Mayberry went 0/2 with a BB in Game 2. He’s slumped a bit to the tune of a .665 OPS in August (65 AB), and for the season his line now stands at .251/.330/.439
* Andrew Carpenter started game 2; 6 IP – 2 ER – 8 H – 2 BB – 5 K. This is basically Andrew Carpenter. He’s a nice guy to have tucked away at AAA in case you need a spot start or two, but that’s probably his role, at least for the Phillies, for the forseeable future.

AA: Reading won 6-0.

* Quintin Berry went 2/4 with a BB. You can read a cool BP interview with Q here.
* Domonic Brown went 2/5 with a 3B (3)
* Kyle Drabek turned in his best start in about 2 months; 7 IP – 0 ER – 3 H – 1 BB – 4 K. His ERA sits at 3.39 in 90.1 IP at AA, 3.02 overall in 152 IP. With his huge workload spike, he’s going to have to be very closely monitored next season

A+: Clearwater won 1-0 and won 4-2.

The 1-0 game was the completion of the 8/7 game. Brett Myers made a rehab appearance. He was followed by Julian Sampson, who pitched 3 scoreless innings, walking 2 and striking out 3. That came out of nowhere. Michael Schwimer came in and finished it off with 2 good innings, allowing 2 hits and a walk and striking out 5.

In the second game

* Freddy Galvis went 1/4
* Drew Naylor went all 7 innings; 2 ER – 5 H – 2 BB – 7 K

A: Lakewood lost 2-0.

* Gose was 0/4
* d’Arnaud went 1/4
* Justin De Fratus was the tough luck loser; 6 IP – 1 ER – 8 H – 0 BB – 8 K
* Rob Roth made a cameo; 1.2 IP – 1 ER – 4 H – 1 BB – 1 K. He has a 5.77 ERA in 48 IP this year at Lakewood. Fading off the radar completely…

SS: Williamsport lost 8-5.

* Collier was 1/5
* Buschini was 1/4
* Hewitt went 0/4 with 2 K and his eye popping 22nd error of the year
* Spencer Arroyo had a bit of a mare; 1.2 IP – 5 R (2 ER) – 4 H – 2 BB – 0 K. Still sporting a 3.58 ERA on the season

RK: GCL Phils won 11-5.

* Singleton went 0/4 with 2 BB
* Domingo Santana went 3/6 with a 2B (6)
* Aaron Altherr went 3/6 with 2 2B (3) and a SB (4)
* Kyrell Hudson went 2/5 with a 2B (1) and a BB. He’s 3/11 to start, with 3 BB and 2 K
* Bollinger went 0/4 with a BB and 3 K. He’s 1/13 with 1 BB and 3 K so far
* Ryan Sasaki got the start; 5 IP – 4 ER – 4 H – 2 BB – 5 K

Proceed with comments.

49 thoughts on “Box Score Roundup; August 20th

  1. dom brown will probably get another 70 or so at bats the rest of the season, lets say he finishes the year at .300, you guys think he will start next year at LHV or Reading

  2. I like your “eye-popping” adjective for Hewitt’s errors. It’s got to be disconcerting to a pitcher when every ball hit to 3B might end up in an error (okay, I used a ton of hyperbole). Pitchers just might think about pitching righties away and lefties inside.

    3B prospects in the organization are pretty weak. Overbeck has a power bat but hasn’t made enough contact. He’s also not very good with the glove. Mattair’s bat just isn’t making it but his glove is pretty darn good. Hewitt’s Hewitt. Paulino and Castillo, a couple of DR products, aren’t jumping onto my radar screen.

    I’m not throwing anyone out just yet but it’s hard to see Hewitt and Overbeck staying on 3rd. 3B is a position the Phils will have a need for in two years. I’m not seeing it within the org.

  3. I would think Terry Tiffee could fill in on a short-term basis if anything happened at the major league level. Although he is probably not signed beyond this year, he has been a productive hitter (and an adequate fielder) wherever he has played.

  4. Agree that Brown will probably start 2010 in Reading and move to AAA around the all-star break if everything goes well.

  5. GCL- Kelly Dugan has not played for a few games in a row. I am thinking minor injury. Altherr, K. Hudson, and D. Santana played well as the Outfielders. Bollinger was the DH.

    Give credit to Andy Tracy who was credited with 3 HR’s in yesterday’s Double Header. Since the 1st game was the continuation of a suspended game, maybe he didn’t actually hit both HR’s yesterday. Regardless, maybe Tracy is beginning a September call-up drive.

  6. First off, really enjoying these roundups. Think it’s a great feature for the site. Also looking forward to your draft reviews.

    Would agree with your comment on Drabek. You think there is any chance that was his last start of this season? I would really prefer them to shut him down.

    I have been following Santana pretty close, and as a just turned 17 year old, was thinking about where he may play next year. I am kind of hoping they get very agressive with him and put him in Lakewood, but I would predict Williamsport. Any thoughts on that?

  7. Tracy’s homers came in an actual doube header, not a continuation of a suspended game (I was there). The first game had been scheduled to be played in Scranton on Wednesday and was rained out. It was rescheduled and played in its entirety last night in Allentown.

  8. Lakewood- I would think that Castro and Collier would be good bets for 2 OF spots, and I would like as reserves The Switch Hitters: Uhl And Jivan James. I then say one of the GCL outfielders could begin starting at Lakewood, and maybe remain there or go to Williamsport after next season’s draft. I would say Dugan would be the favorite for that spot, Santana another possibility, and they can look at Kyrell Hudson and Altherr there in Spring Training.

  9. Santana at Lakewood would be extremely aggressive, even more aggressive than Collier and Gose there this year. It will probably depend on how he does in Instructional ball this fall. I would be inclined to put him in at W’port, but perhaps they will take the same approach as Collier – start him in Lakewood and move him down to W’port if he’s struggling.

    One thing in the Berry interview that caught my eye was his attributing all of his hitting knowledge to Tony Gwynn and Ryne Sandberg. He hasn’t learned ANYTHING about hitting in all his time in the Phils org? That concerns me a bit. Perhaps I misconstrued his comment, but the fact that he does not mention Phils coaching does stand out.

  10. I’m sure others have noticed this as well, but DeFratus has really been good since 7/16 when he gave up 9 runs in 4IP. Since then he’s had a WHIP of 1.03, K/9 of 7.97, BB/9 of 1.55 and an ERA of 2.43. Good control with solid strikeout numbers, and only 3 HRs in 101IP. In addition he’s getting way more groundball outs this year than he did last year – perhaps the result of increasing the downward angle on his fastball as he mentioned in PP’s Q&A with him in September. Since he works in the low 90s and he’s still just 21, he looks and feels like a prospect to me.

  11. I feel like Andrew Carpenter’s been somewhat overlooked this year. He’s quietly increased his K rate to just over 7 per 9 innings, while holding his BB rate steady. That seems like a genuine step forward, and while he’s still probably not more than a back-of-the-rotation starter in the end, it’s nice to see him back on the prospect radar.

  12. “Reading. He has much to work on beyond his batting stroke.”

    Besides spelling, what does he have to work on in Reading that he can’t do in LHV?

    As to Lakewood…other than Drnaued they do not have ANY “baseball players”. Just a bunch of guys who can run and throw.

  13. Does anyone think they should just shut down Drabek? Will they?

    With Kendrick/Carpenter/Naylor doesn’t this feel like they are very similar in terms of ceiling?

  14. Drabek’s fastball was sitting at 94-95 and he pitched a 7 inning, 3 hit, shut out last night. He has been pitching every 5th day on a 100 pitch count limit. So that would leave three starts remaining for him in the season: at home, Aug. 25th v. Erie, Aug. 30 v Bowie and Sept. 4th in Norwich Conn.

  15. No reason to shut Drabek down if he isn’t experiencing any health issues. As long as they keep controlling his pitch-count, there shouldn’t any issues with him taking his regular turn.

  16. ” No reason to shut Drabek down if he isn’t experiencing any health issues”

    I beg to differ. See Cole Hamels this year. In all seriousness though, this incredible jump in innings after TJ surgery is worrisome for his prospects next season if they aren’t careful.

  17. Right so if he only has 3 starts left why not shut him down or limit his pitches greatly. I mean it’s only 3 starts.

  18. With Drabek, it’s hard to say what his innings limit should be. Obviously, the TJ surgery screws up what his max innings should be. He threw 32 innings last year, obviously his limit wasn’t going to be 62 this year. I don’t see the harm in letting him have a few more starts on a pitch count limit. Yank him if he’s starting to labor and throwing more stressful pitches.

    Otherwise, let him have September off for sure. Do you send him to AFL? Obviously, he’s a logical candidate given his performance, but his big innings jump this year might necessitate he get that time off so he can be back rested for spring training in February and a run at the starting rotation before going to LHV.

  19. With Drabek, it’s a fine line between putting him at risk and making sure he’s able to compete at less than 100 percent–as everyone is at this point in the season.

    I think it’s appropriate to be at least a little nervous about the workload jump, but my sense right now is that they’re striking a pretty good balance. In any case, I’m just happy to see him dominating again after a few less than stellar starts.

  20. I saw let Drabek pitch. There is no evidence that it will hurt him to pitch 3 more starts. I think Cole’s issues are more related to his lack of preparation and some maturity issues this year. If you watch him closely he isn’t as repetitive as he used to be. Watch Cliff Lee, he doesn’t throw gas be he repeats himself well on each pitch.

  21. Its good to see Inch get out there. Hopefully, we’ll get a Colvin sighting next week too. As for Drabek, the team has monitored his innings very closely and they’ve kept to a 5 man rotation adding extra days off along the way. I’m sure Drabek got sucked in the trade talk and last night’s start performance says to me that he’s finally past it. Reading is actually in playoff position and the organization wants very much for some of its players to get playoff game experience.

  22. Drabek will pitch more than 3 games most likely…Reading is in 2nd place by 2 1/2 games so they look likely to make the playoffs.

  23. So we have Hamels and the possibility of Mathieson left from the 2002 draft and the biggest miss, Steve Doetsch, never made it past A+ ball.

    I guess 2002 would rate as a pretty poor draft overall, but Hamels by himself makes it worthwhile?

    Wow, the draft strategy has changed from that signability and slot college seniors in the rounds after 10 since 2002. Its better that way.

  24. PP —
    You were done in on your Segovia rating by injury, otherwise the B likely is fine. We all badly overrated Blalock.

  25. Another guy jumping onto the radar is the converted catcher Jesus Sanchez 8+ k’s per 9 innings pitched. Turns 22 next month, but this is his first full year pitching.

    Anyone know about his stuff? From his hit by pitch number (1), I’d guess that he doesn’t go inside frequently?

  26. Boy, when you look at the 2002 draft, it really drives home one overriding theme. Particularly after the first round, when you’re a team that is drafting, each round, you should draft the player that you believe has the greatest chance of success. Need at a given position should be a secondary consideration – who needs a second baseman that never makes it to AA? It should all be about potential. The sheer number of rounds in the draft will generally take care of the distribution of talent on the team.

    To give the Phils credit, I think they’ve done a lot better on this in recent years. But, man, aside from Hamels and Mathieson, 2002 is a wasteland, although, I guess, that’s not all that uncommon. If you get one star and another serviceable player from a draft, that’s probably a decent draft.

  27. DaveH (Savannah GA): Is Domonic Brown almost up to the level of Heyward and Stanton? Heyward’s game appears to be pretty fireproof, Stanton still has SO/contact issues, is there any area that Brown appears to need to improve greatly? … because I struggle to find any dirt on him

    J.J. Cooper: That’s a good way to put it. Brown is at least in the discussion with Heyward and Stanton because there really isn’t any huge flaw to his game. He can hit, now he’s showing he can hit for power, he can run well for a big man and he’s an excellent right fielder. Add it all up and you’re talking about a franchise cornerstone. I’d say he’s a safer bet than Stanton, although I’d still rank it Heyward, Stanton, Brown right now because of Stanton’s ceiling.

    David Beach (Houston, Texas): Hey there J.J., first off thank you for taking your time to answer these question’s! I have to ask since I just read your answer on Dominic Brown, what makes Brown better than Michael Taylor? I ask this because if anyone were to write in & compare Taylor with Stanton & Heyward, you would probably laugh them on the chat room board; but when you look at everything EXCEPT for a few years age difference- Taylor is just as good if not better than Brown! Please explain, as Taylor has all the tool’s that Brown does except Taylor has shown much better plate discipline & more power! Thanks again, Dave.

    J.J. Cooper: But the problem with that is that when you’re looking at prospects age is one of the biggest factors in their ceiling and potential. As a 21-year-old, Taylor was hitting 12 home runs at Stanford while Brown is hitting home runs in Double-A. One of the big reasons that Jason Heyward is the best hitting prospect in baseball is because he has shown that he can hit Double-A pitching as a teenager. You can’t discount age when looking at prospects, because studies going back to Bill James have shown that one of the biggest predictors to a players chances of stardom is reaching the majors at a young age. Of the 10 most recent Hall of Fame inductees as hitters, nine of them were younger than Michael Taylor is right now when they made their big league debuts, and seven of them were 21 or younger. But one other point I will quibble with, Brown is a potential Gold Glove right fielder while Taylor is a solid left fielder who could slide over to right if needed.

  28. * PP – You were done in on your Segovia rating by injury, otherwise the B likely is fine. *

    Maybe PP got the name “mixed up” with the guy drafted one spot ahead of Segovia. 🙂

  29. * Potential GG RF…Nice compliment for Brown *

    If Werth is ever re-signed, look for Brown or Werth to be moved to 1B when the time comes.

  30. I can’t believe that JJ Cooper has ever seen Brown play–he’s nowhere near a GG outfielder. His only plus OF tool right now is his arm. He doesn’t take good routes to flyballs. He sort of gets confused about when to charge a line drive and when to lay back. He doesn’t always take good angles to cut off bouncing balls in the gap. His defense is probably the area he has to work on the hardest in his game. He can succeed, but it’s not a given he will become a plus defender.

  31. Brown is a GG outfielder that’s great to hear. I knew he had a good arm but now when a expert says this it means a lot’

  32. Routes is something that can be taught. Range and Arm can’t be…those are raw skills whereas a good OF coach can train him on angles and routes.

  33. Agree with PhillyChuck, I think he’s short selling Taylor there too.

    Although I do think the more Brown plays the more apt at judging balls and running routes he’ll be.

  34. On an unrelated topic.

    I think Steve Sudorf is this week’s “Peter Principle” award winner (for those who are not familiar with the term, it signifies the level at which a person who has been promoted becomes incompetent or unable to perform up to the job’s specifications). Here’s to hoping he adjusts and makes the transition next year.

  35. Since the daily discussion seems to be off for the weekend, thought to put in some stuff from Saturday’s games.

    GCL- Notice that Santana was HBP in top of one inning. After a pitching change in the bottom of the inning and allowing a sacrifice fly, the UDFA Jesse Zuber hit a couple of GCL Pirates players. Maybe there’s a story there, or not.

    Kyrell Hudson played half the game in CF, and was replaced by Dugan, who had had some time off lately.

    Williamsport – Jeremy Barnes broke his foot and is out for season. Jonathon Villar called up from GCL. He has a possible 15 games , I say, to give an account for next season’s Lakewood roster. It is also learned that Eric Massingham broke his pitching hand on line drive and is also out for season. Previously replaced by Justin Beal. From Crosscutters website.

    Lakewood , I believe DeLosSantos must be a good Fielder, he seems to get the playing time when not seeming to hit so much, while more touted players sit.

    Clearwater- team got bombed. Velasquez started and though he gave up 5 runs in 4 innings (like that) he got 9 strikeouts and pitched the best of anybody. Monasterios got bombed. Esmelvin Jimenez got bombed.. Tyson Brummett continues to pitch in long relief since the demotion to A ball, got bombed in 1/3 of an inning and now has a 135.00 ERA.

    Derrick Mitchell has raised his Batting Average all the way to .210 from a long way under, and now has 11 HR’s. Though I thought a release candidate at one point, he now looks like a starter in AA next season. Who else they got? They might bring back the veteran Javis Diaz, and they got Gus Milner and Arlon Quiroz. That’s the Clearwater guys. I don’t think any of the Lakewood guys can go to Reading, maybe Reading has some repeaters, given a possible logjam at AAA.

    Kevin Nelson 4 for 4 with HR at AA, and continues to play over Kennelly. Although the demotion from AAA works against this, maybe if this continues the search for a 3rd MLB catcher in September can expand.

  36. Catch 22; agree with your point on the draft. In light of so many drafts being crapshoots after the elite players are gone, the Phils philosophy of drafting toolsy players for upside makes sense. If performing HS and college players drop out from injury, lack of talent or intelligence/makeup issues, why not at least go with guys who are strong and fast or throw really hard and try to teach them?

    What are the arguments against this theory?

  37. It looks like Mitchell was warned that if his play didn’t pick up, he’d be released. I was wondering why he wasn’t gone earlier but he has a lot of pop in his bat. He’s batting .371 in his last 10 games with 3 HRs and 8 RBIs. He also has 11 Ks in that stretch. He’s not in my top 30 or even 50 but he could play himself into another year. He’s 22 so another year would be in order.

  38. I didn’t know where to put this, but I think someone asked about Shreve a couple days ago. On his facebook page it seems as if he had another surgery in June because he wasn’t getting better (as quickly maybe) or something.

    Hope it helped him.

  39. blues, nice catch on Shreve. I hope he’s alright.

    Cosart was dealing today, 4IP, 1H, 3BB, 5K. Inch is now in to relieve him.

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