Around the System–Starting Pitching

Around the System

With the trade deadline approaching and the need for a starter probably the primary concern of the Phils, a second look around the system to ascertain what we have “in house”. 

Lehigh Valley

Carlos Carrasco, Age 22–15 starts, 4-7 with a 4.92 ERA, 86.0 IP, 25BB 84K, 8 homers allowed, 1.21GO/AO; .271 opp avg. (.333 with RISP); 1.37 WHIP

Andrew Carpenter, Age 24–14 games; 7-1 with a 2.75 ERA, 88.1 IP, 26 BB 61 K, 11 homers allowed; 0.78 GO/AO; .251 opp avg (.227 with RISP); 1.22 WHIP

Kyle Kendrick, Age 24–15 starts; 4-4 with a 3.97ERA,; 79.1 IP, 26BB 43K, 1.46 GO/AO; .257 opp avg (.183 with RISP); 1.33 WHIP.

Gustavo Chacin, Age 28–7 combined starts between Reading and LV; 3-2, 3.63 ERA, 34.2 IP, 12BB 18K, 2.23 GO/AO, .299 opp avg. (.310 with RISP), 1.50 WHIP

Rodrigo Lopez, Age 33–13 starts, 5-4 with a 3.91 ERA, 71.1 IP 13BB 52K, 1.28 GO/AO; .292 opp avg. (.273 with RISP); 1.34 WHIP

Reading

Kyle Drabek, Age 21–15 combined starts between Clearwater and Reading; 8-1 with a 2.46 ERA; 95 IP; 32BB 100K; 0.98 GO/AO; .223 opp avg. 1.14 WHIP

Joe Savery, Age 23–15 starts; 9-1 with a 3.32 ERA; 78.2 IP, 35 BB 56K; 1.26 GO/AO; .234 opp avg. (.118 with RISP); 1.44 WHIP

Vance Worley, Age 21–15 starts, 5-4 with a 3.63 ERA, 89.1 IP, 29BB 61K, 1.15 GO/AO, .232 opp avg. (.253 with RISP); 1.17 WHIP.

Mike Stutes, Age 22–14 starts, 4-4 with a 4.65 ERA, 69.2 IP, 32 BB 52K; 0.78 GO/AO, 10 homers allowed, .268 opp avg. (.269 with RISP), 1.45 whip

Tyson Brummett, Age 24–14 starts, 3-7 with a 4.43 ERA, 83.1 IP, 22BB 61K, 1.77 GO/AO, .289 opp avg., (.289 with RISP), 1.39 WHIP.

Clearwater

Yohan Flande, Age 23–13 starts, 7-1 with a 2.52 ERA, 82.0 IP, 24BB 67K, 1.73 GO/AO, .238 opp. avg., (.229 with RISP), 1.17 WHIP.

Mike Cisco, Age 22–7 starts, 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA, 42IP 9BB 30K, 1.35 GO/AO, .226 opp avg. (.194 with RISP), 1.07 WHIP

Drew Naylor, Age 23–14 games, 4-6 with a 4.35 ERA, 80.2 IP, 20BB 58 K, 0.94 GO/AO; .275 opp avg. (.295 with RISP); 1.32 WHIP

Jon Velasquez, Age 23–16 combined games between Lakewood and CLearwater (12 starts); 9-2 with a 3.93 ERA; 75.2 IP, 19BB 50K; 0.80 GO/AO; .243 opp avg. 1.12 WHIP.  Note: Only one start at CW thus far.

Julian Sampson, Age 20–12 starts, 1-8 with a 7.29 ERA, 54.1 IP 19BB 23K, 7 homers allowed; 2.24 GO/AO; .332 opp avg. (.338 with RISP); 1.71 WHIP.

Lakewood

Jason Knapp, Age 18–14 starts, 2-6 with a 3.62 ERA; 74.2 IP 33BB 94K; 1.00 GO/AO; .202 opp avg. (.219 with RISP); 1.15 WHIP

Tyler Cloyd, Age 22–14 starts, 7-4 with a 3.05 ERA; 88.2 IP, 19 BB 77K; 1.70 GO/AO; .268 opp avg. (272 with RISP); 1.22 WHIP

Heitor Correa, Age 19–11 games; 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA, 64.2 IP; 23BB 45K; 1.64 GO/AO; .232 opp avg. (.209 with RISP) 1.22 WHIP

Jesus Sanchez, Age 21–14 starts, 3-4 with a 4.23 ERA, 66.0 IP, 24BB 62 K, 0.79 GO/AO, .273 avg. (.234 with RISP); 1.40 WHIP

Trevor May, Age 19–3 starts, 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA; 12.2 IP 8BB 20K; 1.29 GO/AO; .250 opp avg. (.222 with RISP); 1.58 WHIP

Williamsport (abridged stats, only 2 trips through rotation)

Siulman Lebron, Age 22, 2 starts, 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA; 12.2 IP 8BB 15K.

Jon Pettibone, Age 18, 2 starts, 0-0 with an 0.00 ERA; 11.0 IP, 3BB 12K.

Nicholas Hernandez, Age 21, 2 starts, 0-0 with a 4.91 ERA, 7.1 IP 2BB 2K.

Josh Zeid, Age 22, 1 start, 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA, 4IP 0BB 2k.

Matthew Way, Age 22, 1 start, 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 4IP 0BB 3K.

Denotes on 40 man roster

38 thoughts on “Around the System–Starting Pitching”

  1. I love Pettibone’s start so far.

    If Carrasco is the next man up I wonder what the chain reaction will bring. Savery or Brummett to AAA? Anyone but Sampson in Clearwater to AA? Cloyd to Clearwater?

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  2. Doubtful Carrasco or anyone else stays in the bigs for very long, but they sure could drop chacin or rodriguez at anytime to make room. I would say move up Savery and let’s see what he really has. I am with you on the promotions to AA and Cloyd to clearwater seems to make the most sense since he is the oldest and most experienced professionally on that staff.

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  4. Appearant bad news for Mike Cisco fans…he faced just one batter and left today’s game. Just saw the box score, so I don’t know what the cause was, but he is appearantly headed to the DL for the third time this year. (Or he got traded mid-inning…)

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  5. I wouldn’t drop Lopez or Chacin. There isn’t a pitcher in Reading making a case that they MUST be advanced, and it would be extremely frustrating for the Lehigh Valley club to lose effective veterans when they have struggled to build a respectable win/loss record. It is one thing to cultivate prospects, but a good organization owes consideration to its affiliates to build somewhat competitive teams.

    Even Savery. That W/L and ERA looks good, but then the K/BB ratio is not very good at all.

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  6. I’d definitely agree: Savery to AAA, Flande to AA. Good to hear Cloyd is going up a level. And i’d love to see how DeFratus handles a starter’s role again after dominating out of the ‘pen.

    This list is almost entirely consisting of legitimate prospects, which is great. And that’s with Edgar Garcia not having pitched at all. Same for Shreve and Cosart.

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  7. Cisco left with a leg injury, it mentions it in the recap portion of the box score, so unless it’s a break it’s nothing serious.

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  8. Any news on Schreve…??…or Cosart?

    Looking forward to seeing both of them…Schreve WAS formerly a terrific Juco pitcher who came down with arm problems, surgery, then rehab. If he had no arm difficulties, he would have gone HIGH in the draft.

    The Phils must be getting excellent medical/trainer reports, having taken now Savery and Schreve in the draft despite both coming with prior arm surgeries; perhaps Hamels’ draft-time arm having been broken, but his recovery was coming along when they drafted HIM.

    No guts,. no glory??

    Risk-takers.

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  9. Those stats tell me that at the lower levels, Knapp, May and Pettibone are the guys to watch. Not a surprise, I suppose, but nice to see three 18-year olds with some potential.

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  10. I’m happy about Cloyd getting a promotion. If only we could get Flande to AA I’d be happy.

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  11. I’d bet Cloyd has problems jumping to this level. Savery would definately have problems jumping to AAA, as would Flande to AA. Both not ready for those levels until next year.

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  12. one thing that jumped out to me, i never noticed Worley is still only 21 years old. Having a 21 year old Drabek and a 21 year old Worley both pitching pretty well for AA, i love it.

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  13. Why the “whoever is promoted, it won’t be for very long” thing? If Bastardo goes on the DL,(which he should) he likely would not be eligible to return until near August and if the replacement pitches well he could easily be here until the rosters expand in September. If they find an effective pitcher he would likely be here regardless, as there are openings. Bastardo could likely use a little extra time in minors after re-hab anyway.

    Cisco—if you read the re-cap it says 1st opposing batter grounded out to Cisco. Then Cisco left with a leg injury. So, I would guess, he got hit with a line drive, or twisted his leg in the act of throwing. Could be alot of things. Awaiting further developments.

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  14. I think Flande might struggle at AA as well, but I don’t know at what point in his career that wouldn’t be true. He is barely a prospect as it is but he could really do himself a favor and gain some cred by moving up to AA.

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  15. What stands out – apart from the pleasing number of decent to very good prospects – is the age of the pitchers at Clearwater. The average age of the Clearwater pitchers is almost as high as the Lehigh Valley pitchers.

    Is it just me, or is Correa flying somewhat under the radar? Haven’t heard much about him despite very nice numbers and only 19 years old (3 years younger than Cloyd at the same place).

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  17. FWIW, I found this on Philly.com:

    Sanders20
    Anyway i was talking to 1 of my dad friends this weekend. Anyway you can take the news however u want.
    1. The scout said that the phils will look to get a front of the rotation starter this off season(if they can’t trade for 1) He told me the phils front office will go hard after John Lackey. He said the phils really like to see him hit the open market. He did say that at 31yrs old that a 5yr deal would get it done(something the phils never do for a pitcher)
    2. He told me that a couple of phils scouts told him that the phils would like to see Jamie Moyer retire after the season. The Phils would want him to take a spot in the FO or within the minor league. I myself don’t think for a minute Moyer will walk away from 6.5mil next year.
    3. He said Joe Savery really looks like a pitcher now vs a thrower. He is a guy he thinks will be a solid #3or#4 starter.
    4. He thinks Michael Taylor is the best player in the Eastern League. He said he is a 5tool player.
    5. He said Drabek is the 3rd best pitcher he has seen in double A eastern league. his 1st 2 where Bumgarner(19yr LHP from SF) and Matusz(22yr old B-More)
    for those who wanted to know his top 5 pitchers in the Eastern league where
    1.Bumgarner, Matusz, Drabek, Alderson(20yr SF), and Tazawa(22yr Boston).

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  18. Correa is certainly flying under the radar – most likely reason I’d guess is because he missed last year entirely due to suspension. He and Knapp are the two pitchers A-ball and below I pay attention to most.

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  19. Thanks for the post, Gregg. The amount of talent listed there is pretty exciting! I especially like the Lakewood rotation (including DeFratus); there’s not a guy there I wouldn’t be excited to see pitch.

    Any promotion of Carrasco is likely to be short-lived as I doubt the Phils try to make a playoff push with Carrasco in the rotation. I think it is more likely that they trade Taylor for a starter and Carrasco spends most of the rest of the year in AAA.

    Since someone from the FO (I can’t remember who now; it was in discussing moving Taylor to AAA) said that they want promotions to be permanent, I doubt they bring up one of the AA starters to fill in while Carrasco is in the majors. More likely Woods picks up those starts.

    Finally, I’m not sure why one might think Cloyd would have trouble in the FSL. He’s got nice peripherals and good control. I think his line will look very similar to his Lakewood line. Congrats, Tyler!

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  20. these are my favorite and most informative info sites, gregg good work. just the facts nothing but the facts mamm.

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  21. So if Carrasco has like a 60% strand rate and a .333 BAA w/RISP, can he just not pitch out of the stretch or is he somehow getting very unlucky?

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  22. I see seven or eight starters (depending on Chacin’s health–the low K rate is discouraging) at Reading and LHV who could be serviceable or better in the majors within the next 2-3 years. Gotta be excited about that.

    Carrasco would be my choice for the callup, with hopes that he’d stick and push Bastardo back to LHV or to the big-league bullpen.

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  23. This is a really nice group of starters across the board. If we can avoid injury, a lot of these guys will reach the majors. I noticed that the average age of the Lakewood starters is significantly less than the average for Williamsport. Average age of Reading starters is the same as for Clearwater.

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  24. Savery went 6 innings, 2 hits, 4 walks and struck out 2. He also induced 2 groundball double plays. Well on his way to his 10th win this year.

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  25. 4 walks is way to many for 6 innings. He needs to stop walking people if his sucess is going to continue.

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  26. This is a good group. Many will be in big league rotations within 1-5 years. Who stays, who goes to other teams in trade, and when they get to the show are, of course, the big questions.
    I think Drabek is in Phillies rotation in 2011 with an outside chance of being there next year. Hamels, Blanton and Happ are definites in my mind for 2010. ( I’m hoping they don’t trade Happ) I would offer Brett Myers arbitration. If he accepts he’s only signed for 1 year. He can re-establish his value and then either be signed long term or traded. ( he could also be a closer again if Lidge remains ineffective)
    That leaves the 5 spot open again (and maybe the 4th) for a spring competition.
    With continued development 4 or 5 guys from this group can compete for roster spots for the next 4 or 5 years.

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  27. Myers is making $12MM this year and would have to be offered at least that I think for arbitration, so you don’t offer him that since no way he gets that on the open market. He may be unhappy if the FO does that and decide not to negotiate with the Phils, but very likely they take that chance rather than overpay him.

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  28. Trade Taylor? BITE YOUR TONGUE!!

    This guy is destined to be an All-Star for 8-9 years. A 5 tool guy and right-handed–something the lineup needs…desperately (?).

    The other fielderr gEM id Dom Brown…but he is a lefty, though possibly both of them would be a joy to watch for that period into the future for this franchise.

    Should they make a trade they will be considering the status of those soon-to-be-called up (within this and next season) and forming the rotation for several years. With 4-5 guys likely to be given a shot at that rotation, it would be a “travesty” to lose any “untouchables” : Drabek, Taylor, and Brown.

    As for a callup, I nominate Carpenter whose last 8 or 9 games have been excellent with only one hiccup; clearly he has EARNED a callup in these circimstances.

    IMO, Carrasco needs more polish; his pitching with men on base is still an unsatisfied challenge to him.

    Maybe in a month or two. Like an August callup. ??

    Don’t know if Myers will receive any significant offers. Just to keep him nearby, the Phils should sign him to a 2 -year SMALL contract…and pray. He should take all of 2009 to recover, and another several months to get his arm strength. A small gamble.

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  29. Great stuff! A lot of exciting prospects and then there are those that haven’t pitched yet this year too! Shreve, Cosart, Garcia. Would love to add Colvin to this mix.

    Wow, Sampson’s GO/AO is incredible. Way too many walks and not enough Ks, but being 20 at high A, I’m going to give him some time. It really seems like the FO is committed to sticking with him.

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  30. I just checked a web site with good info on arbitration rules.
    If the player is under team control they must offer at least 80% of last year’s salary. Free agents, as Myers would be, have no such minimums. Both sides submit their offer/request and judge picks one or the other.

    I don’t think his injury is one that will require longer than an off-season to recover from. He’s been out since May so he’ll have 9 months to regain his form. You might even see him play winter ball to prove he his healthy and still effective.

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  31. Myers would have to decline arbitration to be a free agent (if the Phillies offered). That arbitration offer would be subject to the 80% rule, though the team and Myers could also come up with their own agreement independent of arbitration.

    FWIW I think there is a small chance Myers would be back in September. Probably only for an inning or two in non-pressure situations, but that is when the 4 month injury return timetable starts. Whether the Phillies choose to push his comeback is another story.

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  32. Regarding arbitration, Myers is going to come up shy of Type B, assuming he won’t be back by the end of the season to pitch some more. MLBTR.com has the reverse engineered Elias rankings, and Brett came up slightly short of B. Without more counting stats he has no chance of hitting the threshold for B in the NL

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  33. carrasco,carpenter,drabek,worley,savery,flande,knapp,and cloyd. look like the pitchers with legitimate chances of being mlb,ers. as for your reporting of arbuckle and other scouts at lhv this past weekend its amazing nothing was said about it on local sports.

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  34. “This guy is destined to be an All-Star for 8-9 years.”

    I don’t mean to pick on this particular comment, but …

    I see this a lot on this board. As good a prospect as Taylor is, I’m not sure that it is EVER possible with ANY prospect to project a AA player to 8-9 all star games. That’s his upside, for sure, but there is probably only a small chance he is THAT good. Especially considering he is already 23 – seems young, but most perenial all stars are already in the majors by 23 (people around here don’t realize how unusual Utley and Howard are in that respect).

    Look, I agree he shouldn’t be traded except in the unlikely event that we can get an ace for him – certainly not for Meche – but let’s get real. He is going to have some success in the majors, has a good chance to be a star, but is no sure thing by any means. Lots of players have torn up AA at 23 and gone on to mediocre major league careers.

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  35. Okay, it took me literally ONE minute to find an example to make my point. Check out Marlon Byrd as a 23 year old at Reading in 2001 (28 HR, .316 BA, .941 ops, 32 SB (vs only 5 CS)). Not quite as impressive as Taylor this year, but pretty darn close.

    How many all star games has Byrd been in?

    I could find plenty more examples.

    The point isn’t to bash Taylor, who is a great prospect. The point is to be realistic about evaluating our prospects.

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  37. Thanks LarryM for your more realistic view. I know that I appreciate being grounded every now and again with my expectations (although they are never quite as high as others on this board).

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  38. This is really a bit of a digression, but I was curious and decided to look at all players who had precisely 8 or 9 all star seasons. It’s an impressive group. Mostly hall of famers, with several players who will be hall of famers when they are eligible, and several players who fell just a bit short of the HOF. Only a very few players with 8-9 AS years aren’t at least serious HOF candidates. The worst player in the group was maybe Frank McCormick – and he was a heck of a player.

    As to age of debut, I was essentially correct. 33 of 47 players were ML regulars by the age of 23. Even that is deceptive – almost all of the “late arrivals” were pitchers (4) or catchers (5). Only five non-pitchers, non-catchers wasn’t already a ML regular at the age of 23 (and one of those, Gil Hodges, played 96 games in the majors at age 23; he just missed my arbitrary 100 game cut off. Another was Ichiro, who was of course a major leaguer in Japan at a young age). The average ML debut was at age 21. That includes the late arrivals.

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