Just looking at some box scores, just some random thoughts, in bulleted format.
* Marson had a .679 OPS in May, and wasn’t much better in the beginning of June, but he’s hitting .371 over his last 10 games, with 10 RBI and 4 BB. He only has 2 extra base hits (both doubles), so the power still hasn’t come, but he’s at least starting to put it together.
* Anthony Gose is 44/52 in SB. His plate discipline is obviously lacking at this point, and he hasn’t hit for much power, but that speed sure is something. As a reference point, Michael Bourn stole 58 out of 64 in his age 21 season at Lakewood. Gose has a real chance to end up with 65-70 SB, though his success rate might not be quite as good.
More below….
* Andrew Carpenter and Carlos Carrasco are prime candidates for a callup to replace Bastardo, but they couldn’t be having more different seasons. Carpenter has an ERA of 3.02 but a DICE of 4.41, while Carrasco has an ERA of 5.20 and a DICE of 3.39. He’s been the victim of bad luck, but the questions about his mental approach still persist.
* On DICE, here are a few other random lines
Vance Worley, 3.67 ERA – 3.75 DICE
Joe Savery, 3.24 ERA – 4.46 DICE
Mike Stutes, 4.65 ERA – 4.85 DICE
Kyle Drabek, 2.36 ERA – 2.20 DICE
Yohan Flande, 2.52 ERA – 2.63 DICE
Drew Naylor, 4.24 ERA – 3.43 DICE
Carlos Monasterios, 2.90 ERA – 2.98 DICE
Julian Sampson, 7.74 ERA – 4.84 DICE
Mike Cisco, 3.00 ERA – 3.76 DICE
Tyler Cloyd, 3.05 ERA – 2.41 DICE
Jason Knapp, 3.62 ERA – 2.69 DICE
* With the trade deadline approaching, the merits of Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown, how they compare, which would should be traded (if either should) and other arguments have been ramping up. While this won’t be a full on take on the subject, I think it should be noted that Brown is 2 full years younger, 1 level behind Taylor, but has a superior ISO (.241 to .237). Taylor’s having a fine season at AA and looks to have eased some of the concerns among scouts, but there are still question marks. I have very little doubt that in 2 years, Dominic Brown is going to be considered one of the best OF prospects in the entire minor leagues.
* Brad Harman is one of the most perplexing prospects I’ve seen since I started closely following the minors. .643 OPS in April, .822 OPS in May, .344 OPS in June. So many times you think he might be ready to break out, and then he falls flat completely. But I still think he could have an Eric Bruntlett type career, if thats something anyone would aspire to have.
* Two of my personal favorites, Heitor Correa and Justin De Fratus, are having nice seasons at Lakewood. Correa, who didn’t pitch at all last year because of a violation of team rules has thrown 57.2 innings, with a 2.81 ERA, 50 H, 23 BB, and 40 K. De Fratus, moved to the bullpen this year, has a 1.58 ERA and a 46:6 K to BB ratio in 45 IP. He’s also generating 1.58 GB for every flyball. Lefties are hitting him a bit (.292) but he’s completely handcuffing righties, who are hitting only .167 against him, including a 31:2 K to BB number. That’s impressive.
* Zach Collier has been an abject disappointment. His overall line of .221/.278/.315 isn’t good, he’s stolen only 12 bases, and he has 0 HR as we near the end of June. He was obviously going to need some time as a young 18 year old in the SAL, but he was described as being much more polished than a guy like Anthony Gose, but Gose has clearly had the better debut and has shown progress at the plate. Collier is sporting .456 OPS in 54 June AB’s. Its obviously waaaaay too early to make any definitive judgments on him, but his start is one of the more disappointing storylines of the season for me so far.
* Travis D’Arnaud has had a rough go of it as well, but has a .726 OPS this month. He’s going to require some patience, much like Gose and Collier, but it was easy to get a bit too excited after his strong finish at Lakewood last year.
* Tim Kennelly is having a bit of an underrated year at Clearwater. He’s only 22 and is throwing up a .306/.387/.443 line in 219 AB’s. He’s crushing lefties to the tune of a .993 OPS, and he’s been fairly steady from month to month. He’s played 1B, 3B, LF, RF and C. Another Eric Bruntlett in the making!
Phuture Phillies 
if there is any promise, can we refer to them as Dobbs instead? because honestly Bruntlett comps just make me want to cry. Heck i would take a Tomas Perez at this point.
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At some point I hope to see Kennelly in Reading but that would leave Clearwater bare. I am also hoping Berry would kick it up a notch.
Santo Hernandez does he have a future? As an Indy player
it is hard for me to judge but nice start. Two saves already
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One minor quibble: A .241 ISO is not superior to a .237 ISO. They’re essentially identical: A difference of .004 means less than 1 extra base at this point in the season.
I’ll accept that Brown is a superior prospect overall, but I feel like the margin is smaller than most people think. Taylor has a slightly longer track record (Brown didn’t really hit for any power before this season), and Brown has never shown the contact skills that Taylor has. I know that we don’t like to emphasize batting average overmuch, but Taylor is hitting .340 over 750 AB (!) between this season and last, which I think is indicative of a real skill.
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Talk about getting excited. From the day he was drafted, from what I had read and the little I could see of video of him drabek to me had the chance to be a number 1, knapp excites me even more. 94 strikeouts in 73 innings, at eighteen, he is wild but with more innings and two more seasons in the minors he will be I believe a ace type prospect, we can only hope this teams keeps Hamels to go along with these kids,
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Mathieson pitched 2 innings last night in the GCL. No hits, no runs and 3Ks. Can’t get excited yet but I’m glad he’s back to pitching.
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Major league careers can be made for good-hitting players who can man multiple positions. Greg Dobbs, Jim Leyritz and others have done it. This sounds like Tim Kennelly’s future.
Also, how about that Jeremy Slayden? By his performance, he is saying loud and clear to the club that “I DON’T BELONG HERE!” Good for him.
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Forget two years, Brown is probably one of the better OF prospects right now. His stats don’t look superficially impressive, but in the tough hitting environment of the Florida State League he is still third in OPS.
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Slayden
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI
LEH (phi) AAA 38 .229 .295 .398 4 12
REA (phi) AA 10 .440 .517 .720 2 10
Jaramillo
LEH (phi) AAA 115 266 .340 .371 8 39
MLB 37 .282 .360 .419 2 17
Why are players not doing well at Lehigh ?
add Marson and Donald
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nowheels – it’s no longer there’s something rotten at reading? Is there something looney at lehigh?
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Don’t post often, but wanted to thank PP for this post. Here’s to hoping for some more of these types of posts in the future as it was very well done and provided some good food for thought as well as a nice update on the farm system.
I agree with PP that Brown is the better prospect, but it would take a real ace to get Taylor (Halladay is really the only one, maybe Cliff Lee as well). He is as close to untouchable as it gets along with Brown and Drabek.
Amazing about Drabek is that his DICE is even lower than his 2.36 ERA. He is going to be a good one, and with Bastardo possibly injured, I wonder if the Phils are thinking of calling him up? It can be argued whether it is a smart move or not, but I am sure they are thinking of it. Personally, I vote to bring up CC and see what he’s got.
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RodeoJones
If you knew Jaramillo was going to hit over .250 in the majors would you have traded him.
The Lehigh reporter did confirm twilight trouble with the outfielders defensively. Bad batting eye??? Expanded strike zones??? Maybe I am full of sawdust. It will play out eventually.
Ps. nothing rotten in Reading this year. The new coaches are doing a job so it wasnt the stadium. Savery’s progress e.g.
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Anyone see what Mathieson’s velocity was? I also think Taylor is to good for double a right now and after slow starts at each level he dominates. I think he is ready to get his feet wet at lehigh. Give him some time to get acclimated and see more breaking pitches. Also gives Amaro more time to see if he is ready for the bigs next year.
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PP, Gose may be even better than we think. He is only 18 at Lakewood; Bourne was 21. Also, if I am not mistaken, most of the times he was caught stealing took place early in the seson; he has been much more successful recently.
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I was thinking the same thing but I thought he was 19. While still impressive if he is only 18 I think he is way ahead of where Bourne was at that age.
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Jaramillo’s hitting troubles also extended to Reading, Batavia and Ottawa. He still only slugged over .400 one season, and his slugging pct. now in Pittsburgh is .409. He’s not the kind of player I would regret trading.
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As for Bourn/Gose, they are both extremely fast players. Beyond that, I don’t think they are comparable. Gose is a player with a developing batting eye but raw power. Bourn had an extremely good batting eye but little power.
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Well, Gose will be 19 on August 10, so you weren’t far wrong. Having only walked 13 times in 262 ABs, his OBP is only .312, which makes the number of steals even more astonishing. He has 17 doubles and 5 triples, although I don’t know how much of this is speed and how much is power.
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Just wanted to let you know that the Tim Kennelly Bandwagon has been happily trundling along and we appreciate the love from PP. The Bandwagon thinks he will not get promoted this year, but will be a “one level a year” guy as long as he can warrant it. Tim Kennelly’s Bandwagon also scoffs at any Bruntlett comparisons and thinks that a Gary Sheffield comp is more appropriate. Sheff has also played many positions in his career, hence they are very similar players. Also, Bruntlett reminds us of a dirty Kiwi.
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Baseball America wrote up a piece about him. Apparently he was successfully stealing 2nd base 90%(!) everytime he was on first. Not 90% success rate on his steal attempts. But everytime he was on first, he stole 2nd 90% of the time.
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i echo what seth said about browns so called superior iso to taylor .241 to .237. not exactly dominateing. i happen to think from everything i read here taylor is the better prospect. the fact he has done it for 2 years longer shows hes more consistant not that brown is a baby waiting to reach gargantuin hieghts. and it not like taylor is in a wheelchair. he,s 23 ? p.s. what is dice?
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PP, true that Dom Brown is two years younger than Taylor, that would seem to be Brown’s biggest “advantage” if we’re comparing the two, and its no small detail. But I would like to point out that Taylor, while he is at this point only 1 level ahead, has proven just about all he can at AA, so a case could certainly be made for moving him up. In fact, if he were on another teams roster, one that isn’t as full in the outfield as the Phillies’, he would probably be close to getting a look in the major leagues. So yeah, he’s only up on Brown one step, because that’s where the team is keeping him. But it’s possible that Taylor is too good for the level he’s at, while DBrown hasn’t been able to show that at High A yet. We’ll see when gets healthy again.
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Nice post, thanks James.
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I typically side with Taylor in these discussions having seen both play and having read extensive comments on both, however I don’t think Taylor has been “doing it” for 2 years longer. In fact, Brown entered the minor league system a full year before Taylor did after being drafted in 2006. The difference being that Taylor came from college.
So they’ve been “doing it” for roughly the same amount of time, but Brown’s 2 years younger. This head-to-head contest gives Brown the edge, as he is pretty close to Taylor’s numbers with arguably more years ahead of him.
I’m not going to get into the injury factor right now, but I think its important to note that Brown has already had a dislocated shoulder (twice?) and broken hand this year. Let’s hope that trend doesn’t continue.
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Just to put a finer point on it, in a similar number of at bats in CLE, Brown has a 920 OPS compared to Taylor’s 940 OPS when he was in CLE. Again, Brown is two years younger than Taylor was when he did it. That’s darn impressive.
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Here is a little different spin:
Brown has been working within the organization, swinging wood, with professional instruction, and only focusing on baseball since he left high school.
Taylor spent 3 years in college (At Stanford) working with metal, under coaches who have everyone adopt the same swing, and split time with sport and academics. Transitioned to wood just 2 years ago this month.
Both are absolutely tremendous prospects with physical attributes and production and time will render the verdict, which I think will be positive for both.
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I have only one problem with taylor, and that is that he is only walking about 6% of the time. Thats really, really low. still, slightly better than Gose’s 5% walk rate. Brown definately has better walking skills, at 8%. over his minor league career. other than that, I think that taylor is the better prospect right now, and would much rather see brown traded.
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Gose is very exciting at this point. I hope he develops patience in the next few years.
I agree that Brown is better than Taylor but both are impressive.
Collier has been a disappointment so far.
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Baseball America had a write up on Brown today.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=5048
Another thing to consider on the Brown/Taylor front. Yes, their Isolated Slugging figures are close. But the league slugging average in the FSL is .363, compared to .387 in the Eastern League. Taylor is playing in a much better hitting environment.
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These types of posts are always much appreciated, James. Nice work.
The Brown v. Taylor debate is a nice problem to have, and while I come down on the Brown side (though not by a wide margin, I might add), there’s one overarching takeaway here: the Phillies will obviously have to give one of them up to get a front-line starter. Under no circumstances, however, should they give up both.
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Would anyone trade Werth and promote Taylor now?? It would be very aggressive for a world series champion but the team looks dead right now.
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You need a lights out #2 at least. That means a major leaguer in trade.
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I doubt Taylor could jump from AA to starting in the majors without issues. The list of position players who skipped AAA is a very short one and it consists of names like Griffey Jr, Arod, etc.
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mayberry,s warts are starting to show. they cannot trade taylor
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great post. the DICE stats are very interesting and support some of the comments we hear from scouts.
i love both brown and taylor, but i wouldn’t be so quick to be positive that brown will out perform taylor. the grass seems greener on younger prospects, but taylor’s size yields raw power potential that brown will never touch.
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I’ve actually entertained the notion that they could trade Werth and promote Taylor, but, the more I think about it, the more backwards it seems. You’d be trading to shore up one gap (starting pitching) and creating another problem (losing a guy who will probably hit more than 30 homers this year and who scores runs and hoping that a player from AA is ready to take over). It’s not the type of move a team should make if it is looking to repeat. And what kind of message would that send to the rest of the team if they traded Werth (the universal reaction of the team would be: “you did WHAT?” and I can understand why they’d feel that way)?
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Susdorf is there any reason he isn’t at reading? To see if he can handle the pitching. He is twenty three years old, and to me going to reading would give us a better idea. If he is a prospect or org. filler. To bring up Taylor now and trade werth is hard to judge, if it was a non contender yes, but for a team going for the division and more, its a hard choice. The whole team is just in a funk, some of it to me is them just being in the mind set of we can turn it on anytime. That’s my opinion, it could be way off, but it seems they play like we can turn it on when we want,
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catch i agree with your blog its so tantalizing to bring up taylor but werth is one of the most taken for granted guys. but some things have a life of their own. like why isnt taylor at aaa. it cant be to hide him . he,ll do the same thing at lhv. he,s doing at aa. btw we havent heard much about worley. hows he doing? when brown gets healthy he HAS to go to aa. same with flande.
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as I have stated before, everyone seems to forget about some of the players the Phillies hve in there system who have major league time. I think it is safe to say that Ellison should be gone, period. I know the people at Lhigh love Tracey, but he is what, about 55 and the phillies still pay him about 20 k a month for what. These two poele alone block the path for good players. You wll see at the end of this year a grop of players at Readng get the hell out. No phutuere because of Phils loyalty to really od players. Mahr has really started to get inot a grove, yet I guess he is one player that no one cares for. cannot figue. Great athlete, great defensive player and he can hit. Here is my guess, Mahar, Taylor and a good young pitcher will be gone before long in a trade, very real chance to be Clevenland, for Cliff Lee. REmeber, there is no room at the inn for utlfielders and first baseman with big league team becasue of Ibanez, Werth, Victarino, and Mayberry. yes i said Mayberry. Manuel loves him. And Howard will be there a long time. You are going to say Mahr splits time at AA with Stavisky, which is nothing more that Roadcap adores Stavisky, yet it is Mahar who got to the majors while Stavisky has been a career hig A and AA player, and agin is older. Just watch and see what happens.
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So you think charlie and the phillies think Mayberry is a better prospect than Taylor? I am not saying you think that but it sounds like charlie and the f.o. does, or it could be a smoke screen.
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i would disagree about taylor but maybe its wishful thinking. although i dont know how we can know if manuel likes mayberry more than taylor. if taylor is not better than mayberry than the phils are doing a hellava pr. job. not to mention the people who have seen him. heres a question. would you rather trade carrasco and marson for meche or taylor carrasco and marson for lee.
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Why would Cleveland want Kevin Mahar?
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Coste is DHing and Bruntlett is playing SS. What’s next Bill Giles in left field. I will pretend they are Cairo and Taylor and be happy. Thank god for the Sarge/Wheeler mute button
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im watching penny 95 fb 75 slider but he,s a nibler. not to impressive. i hate to say this but i still think hanson will have arm troubles. he pitches with his arm not his legs, too much stress eventually. i can pretty well guess what charlie said friday night. take,take,take, make the pitcher work. p.s. when did tbs become the official red sox network?
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Mahar played for Buck Showwalter, manager of Texas when Mahar was there. showwalter likes Mahar type athletes, like Taylor, both big , strong and good to real good power. showwaltr is special asst. to president of the Indians and I feel comfortable in saying that Wedge is on his last legs. I also know peole who are well aware of some conversations that have occurred between the Indians and some outside peole who have been following Indian scouts, and they have been at a lot of the R-Phils games over the last three weeks. there is also a pitcher on the R-phils roster they are high on, and I would bet you that the Phils would give a lot to get Cliff Lee. Remeber this, when the Mets get healthy ove the next few weeks, they will be very tough and you know that Manuel likes to win.
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