Daily Discussion

A big step yesterday for Scott Mathieson, the 25 year old big right handed pitcher recovering from multiple Tommy John surgeries.  Mathieson threw 2 shutout innings for the GCL Phils, picking up the win without yielding a hit.  He didnt walk a batter and struck out three. 

Six shutout innings for Jon Pettibone in his second start for Williamsport yesterday.  He allowed 4 hits, walked 2 and struck out 6.  The early problems of Anthony Hewitt continue with an 0-3 (2 k’s) to go along with his 3rd error of the young season.

The line on Drabek….7.1 IP 6H  3ER 1BB 9K.  The Phils will need a starter it appears next time around the rotation.  Who is your choice?

Yet another multi hit game for Steve Susdorf in Clearwater(3-5,r,2 doubles)

 Recent comments from Frank Cacciatore, Reading hitting coach: 

On Michael Taylor–“He is doing the job away from the game with his early work to maintain his success…he has done a hell of a job until now and it is nice to see him hit the ball hard the other way…when you throw BP to Taylor, there are only a handful of guys I have thrown to (including at the big league level) where the ball comes back that hard…”

(Source: Readingphillies.com)

71 thoughts on “Daily Discussion

  1. Great news on Matieson – the strikeouts are particularly encouraging.

    Prediction on Drabek? Bastardo will get one more start to prove himself (assuming his shoulder is fine), if he struggles or is still hurt AND if Drabek’s next start is a good one – Drabek will be promoted and Bastardo will go back go LhV. Bastardo has the ability to be a good major league pitcher, but he cannot quite command and perfect his breaking stuff. He could probably use at least the rest of the year at AAA.

  2. It has to be Carrasco…right? The guy always performs when he is challenged. His main problems are that he gets bored with his competition level and/or he gets frustrated during games.

    If it is a one start deal, then its carpenter. If it is a more serious injury it should be Carrasco.

  3. Is susdorf a legit prospect or an older, experienced guy in a younger league?

  4. As gregg stated in the comments of the Lehigh Valley report and I agreed with I think you have to go with Carpenter on the next start in Tony B’s slot. If Tony B is hurt in any way there is no need to push him. He hasn’t performed that well that it’s worth risking him getting injured further.

    I’m not sold that the big club is contending this year so I’d rather use Carpenter, who has already been brought up this year, then start the clocks of either CC or Drabek. Carpenter has pitched very well at AAA and he deserves the shot to stick.

  5. We drafted Susdorf last year, so he’s not exactly org fodder yet. I believe he was a Stanford product? Anyone?

  6. It’s time to see what Carrasco can do on the major league level. Remember when he first went to Lehigh last year he took the challenge and dominated in his few starts there.
    There isn’t always a correlation between current performance and future performance. We know he has the talent. It could also be a good showcase if you want to trade him. Of course if he struggles you’ve hurt his trade value but I’d take that chance.

  7. I think Carpenter but open minded. When the panic sets in .
    They will call up Drabek, no if ,and, or buts. They do nothing until their butts are in the fire.
    BTW. I have never seen such bad baseball mistakes in my life.
    Phils and opps what the hell is going on.

  8. Rodeo, I don’t know how you can say that you are not convinced the big club is contending this year; they may not win but they are surely contending and the division is terrible-they may never have a better chance!

    Having said that, Bastardo has lost three in a row and it is time for a change, whether or not he is injured. I would try Carpenter first since he has been pitching well and has already been up once. He probably only has to last until they acquire the established pitcher that everyone says they will.

  9. Susdorf if I’m not mistaken had a terrific senior season last year and an even better college world series performance. But yes he was a Senior which means he is probably a little older for his level of play.

    To me he projects as another Jeremy Slayden.

    I hope to holy H they don’t panic and jump Drabek up. That would be the worst thing you can do for that kids development. Especially 1 year removed from TJ surgery.

    As stated on the big clubs site they can make it through the All Star Break with only 4 starters.

    Finally what we are seeing is a classic hangover season. I can only hope Ruben doesn’t make any rash moves that set us back 5-10 years like after the 93 season.

    Rollins decline in production since his MVP season is great cause for concern…who is our SS of the future?

  10. Carpenter as pitched well, but I really don’t want to see any more of him. I think he’s a classic AAAA pitcher

    Carrasco needs to get a shot IMO. His peripheral numbers this year has been impressive on a lot of levels. I have no idea how big a deal these composure/maturity issues are, but unless the Phils think he’d melt down on the mound, I’d like to see him get an opportunity

  11. And, if they aren’t impressed by Carpernter’s effort and don’t want to start the clock on Carrasco so soon, Rodrigo Lopez has pitched very well his last two outings. He’s a pretty lousy retread, but at least an MLB veteran

  12. Whenever i read about Hewitt, I think of Stan Hochman’s famous line: “That’s a dizasta.”

  13. Not sure how you get the big league club not contending either.

    Last year from June 16th – July 1st (interleague play) they went 3-9 and ended June at 44-39 and 1 game up in the division.

    this season, from June 12-today(interleague play) they went 2-10 and are currently 37-33 and .5 games up in the division..

    It would appear they are basically the same team as last year but this version has been hit with more injuries.

    What this means for the minor leagues is that a few of these guys will probably be gone within the next month.

  14. Clearly they have only two pitchers in the system with major league stuff and major league ready right now: Carrasco and Drabek. Their fastballs sit in the mid 90’s and they can command three pitches. Was impressed last night when Drabek came back from a 3 run 6th inning by striking out the last batter in the 7th with a 95 mph fast ball and then struck out the lead off hitter in the 8th with an 83 mph off speed pitch that had Cole Hamels type movement. He walked the next hitter and was lifted after 7.1 innings and a 91 pitch count. In his previous start he pitched 8 innings and had a 96 pitch count. But he is facing AA bats. Guess they go with Carlos since he has faced AAA hitters and has more innings under his belt.

  15. Not sure CC sits in the mid 90s with his fastball. From what I’ve read he hits mid 90s but usually settles in the lower 90s.

  16. I just can’t see them bringing up Drabek after, what, 4 starts in AA. Right now, I don’t see them bringing Drabek up and keeping him in the rotation regardless of whether he pitches poorly or not. I think when he is ready they want to bring him up and let him grow into the role.

    They’re probably going to start limiting his pitches at some point and bringing him up and then having the shut him down or put him in the pen is an iffy situation for him and the big club.

  17. Rickey B: I was there too and was impressed with the variety of K’s he had. I counted at least three with hitters swinging feebly at off-speed stuff, He blew away of couple of guys with 95 MPH heat and came back nicely after getting hit hard in that 3 run 6th inning.
    Taylor continues to hit the ball hard but the pitcher made what hockey guys would call a kick save (and a beauty) on him for one of his outs. BTW I saw Taylor and Savery walking in the concourse together before the game. Two guys who know they’re going places together?

  18. From a minor league perspective, it’s time to give CC his shot or trade him. One or the other. At this point, if you bring up draybek and leave CC down, it depreciates his trade value.

    I give him his shot, he either puts up or shuts up. That’s it. His “mental makeup” is infuriating, if he’s a bitch, no amount of babying will help that. If not, lets end the speculation about it and move forward.

  19. Oh and for the record, if I pick. I think draybek is better RIGHT NOW, and obviously has a much higher ceiling.

  20. Susdorf is definitely still a prospect. Drafted as a college senior last year out of Fresno State, i believe he was tagged as one of the best hitters in college baseball. Last year he came in and hit the ball well at both Williamsport and Lakewood. People forgot his name a bit because he was injured to start this year, but now that he is back, he is hitting again. Im not saying this kid is a top 10 prospect, but he is experienced and can hit, thats something to watch. Kinda reminds me a bit of Slayden actually.

  21. I don’t think it’s obvious that Drabek has a much higher ceiling than Carrasco. Recency bias at work a little bit I think here…..I am very high on both though. Carrasco this year still has his K/9 up right around 9, walks down, GB/FB ratio up and, which some people may forget, is barely 22. Plus no injury history like Drabek

    Don’t mean this as a slam on Drabek since obviously there is nothing not to like there, I just think people are snoozing on Carrasco a bit and possibly overhyping Drabek (ie saying he’s a better prospect than Hamels….that’s pure overhype). I think they are both very encouraging young prospects

  22. I would bring up Carrasco, with the thought that he’s probably going to mix in a couple disasters with some good starts. But he’ll learn, and the #3 starter upside is worth taking a chance on. Carpenter’s upside is probably 7th-inning reliever, and Kendrick we know about…

  23. I wish That I could understand why anyone would want to bring up carrasco. He by reports is immature, not ready to pitch, gets frustrated easily, why ruin him, he is not ready, just like Bastardo wasn’t ready, he didn’t have his secondary stuff and his fastball isn’t enough to get out big league hitters, I would rather waste the year then hurt these kids. But people on here just keep on mention kids who need time like carrasco, Drabek, Knapp, worley, stutes, if a deal can’t be made then its carpenter turn to try to help.

  24. Susdorf isn’t much of a prospect, despite his performance. He was picked in the 19th round last year, which, since he was a senior and was a cheap sign, indicates how he was perceived by teams and their scouting directors. He was also older than average for Lakewood (he is more age appropriate for Clearwater, but still too old to be considered a real prospect there. He’s a year and a half older than Brown). Also, 18 at bats is way too small a sample to make a judgement on.

    What I remember hearing about him was that he had strong character and leadership skills, and hence he was the kind of guy a team would want to have around younger players. I’m happy for him and I hope he keeps on raking.

  25. Carrasco is lined up to pitch today and Carpenter tomorrow (I think), so Carrasco would be lined up to pitch in Bastardo’s spot in the rotation against the Braves on 7/1. However, I think it is much more likely that they go as long as they can with 4 starters.

  26. The important distinction between Susdorf and Slayden is that Slayden actually had to go through the Rule 5 process this past winter because he was not protected on the 40 man, thus he’s been in the system for 5 years already. This is Susdorf’s second season in the minors and he is at A+ at the age of 23. Slayden is 26 or 27(?) and still toiling between AA and AAA.

  27. Not that I think Susdorf is going to be a great major leaguer one day, but the comparisons to Slayden and his situation is apples to oranges.
    Here is a good question, was Susdorf drafted after his junior year? Anybody know?

  28. the phillies are not contending? since when. please leave drabek alone hell be here next year. carrasco has to show what he has and his secondary pitch is much better than bastardo,s. bastardo has shown unfortunately he is far from ready to start. our starters hamels very good, blanton very good, moyer and happ good. so we need one guy it has to be carrasco. he has to show what he has. if he blows up carpenter, then a deal. manuel has to stop with the quick hook our bp has me more concerned. btw i dont care how bad rollins has been, actually i do, but bat him 8th no brunlett and no stairs starting over mayberry. ais a good pitch hitter doesnt need ab,s that what makes a great pinch hitter. g gross could go 6 months pick up a bat and go 3 for 5.

  29. btw flande should be at aa, taylor should ABSOLUTELY be at aaa. as much as i think hes going to be a star theres going to be a decision next year about him and mayberry. you have to be as sure as possible about taylor. and next years ss donald.

  30. That is the reason kids get ruin rushing them, but luck the phillies won’t do what you suggest. The future is looking good, and rushing kids who arent’ ready will hurt them and the team.

  31. Oh, let me clarify – not to say they aren’t going to contend, but I’d need to know they will break out of this funk before I mortgage any of the phuture for this team. It looks like some vets might not be slumping, but in serious decline, and some injuries might be more serious then others. Adding a player or two, whether they be from the pharm or traded for via prospects, would be unwise unless this team show it’s turned the corner. I wouldn’t start CC’s clock unless I knew the rest of the team was going to make that decision worthwhile.

  32. Hewitt’s doing great! His K% has dropped 37%, his walk rate has increased 23%, and his BABIP is only .167 despite a 25% LD rate, so it will obviously regress and so will his low BA.

    What’s that? It’s only been 29 plate appearances? You’re right, I probably shouldn’t judge him yet.

    Hewitt may suck and may be a bust, but this year’s performance is NOT the proof anyone is looking for.

  33. Wait a second. On Susdorf, this is his first full year in the minors. He is 23 and is in high A ball – but it’s not like he got there slowly. They put him there and all he is doing is beating the living daylights out of the baseball. Can we at least give him a full year to see what he can do before we talk about him not being a prospect? To date, he’s done nothing but show us he is a super hitter. So why should we be poking holes at him? I don’t get it.

  34. I don’t think it’s about poking holes, it’s more about keeping things in perspective. He should be hitting at that level given his age. So you can’t get too too excited about the guy. Now if he keeps mashing and works his way up quickly through a couple of levels, then he suddenly gets quite a bit more interesting

    But as a college senior sign who is now 23, he’s going to have to hit a ton the next year plus to get into the discussion of top 15 system prospects IMO

  35. Yeah, I don’t think anyone is (or can be) arguing that Susdorf is a top prospect. But all he’s done since we drafted him is hit. It’s only fair to give him a shot, so at this point I do think of him as a prospect. If he keeps hitting at Clearwater for over a larger sample size, challenge him at Reading. He was just drafted last year, so he should be treated like any other player who isn’t categorized as “filler” at this point.

  36. Taylor will be used in a trade so I am no longer excited about him as a Phillie prospect, but I am very excited to watch him play from a baseball fan perspective. This guy just makes you show up at the ballpark hours early.
    Drabek (2) and Taylor (5) showed up on the BA Hotsheet today.

  37. Also for whoever was asking about Susdorf’s previous drafting, he went in the 27th round in 2007 (after JR year) to DET

  38. 26 major league players and managers have 4 year college degrees. The odds are against Susdorf, that’s all.

  39. Degrees and whether they played and were drafted after their senior year are 2 very different things.

    I would guess there are at least 100 college senior draftees on major league rosters, maybe more.

    About Susdorf, he does need to move quickly. Basically college seniors should do well in High A in their first pro season if they are prospects. Sometimes they should even get to AA to be close to age appropriate. Susdorf probably would have started at Clearwater if he were healthier earlier.

    That being said, I think he is a marginal prospect at this stage. Sort of a poor man’s Jason Michaels. He could be useful as as 4th or 5th OF if he continues to hit, but until he does this at AA or AAA he is doing it against less experienced and younger players.

  40. “Hewitt’s doing great! His K% has dropped 37%, his walk rate has increased 23%, and his BABIP is only .167 despite a 25% LD rate, so it will obviously regress and so will his low BA.”

    He’s made a lot of hard outs so far. Hopefully he keeps walking more.

  41. Anonymous – I sure as hell hope you’re wrong about Taylor. If he is traded I will be beyond depressed. I haven’t been this excited about a prospect since Hamels. I don’t want to see him winning MVPs for the Red Sox (“sure we’ll give you Brad Penny and all it will cost is Michael Taylor!”)

  42. no one is arguing that he is a top 15 prospect. All I, and a couple of others, have said is that he has been in the system for less than a full year and shouldnt be considered organizational scraps just yet. He has mashed everywhere he has been, yes he was old for each league, but at 23 he at least can be looked at as a decent option as a lower tier prospect.

    Colin_k i wasn’t comparing Susdorf to Slayden at the present time, i was saying that Susdorf reminds me of Slayden from a few years ago when he was in a similar situation agewise.

    and Rodeo, yes the odds are stacked against him being a MLer because of his 4 year college career, but the world needs bench players and triple A injury replacements as well. If he can continue to hit for average with some power, a pinch hitter could be in his future, which isn’t too bad a career in my book.

  43. Carrasco may be young and immature, but he has been in line a long time. You guys know how it feels when you’ve been waiting in a line for a long time and all of a sudden Antonio Bastardo comes along and cuts in front of you.

    It’s time to teach Carlos how to swim by throwing him in the water.

    Or. If any of you have MLB the Show for PS3, one commentator always says that young pitchers are like Tea Bags… you never know what you got until you stick ’em in hot water.

  44. I expect that CC will break our hearts if we bring him up now. I doubt he’s ready and fear that, if we bring him up now, he’ll take a giant leap backwards.

  45. In case your interested and this makes for an interesting topic…. Adam Buschini wqs assigned today to the Crosscutters as a…wait for it… 3B. The samer team that has “Hard Hittin’ Whitten” ..I mean ‘Hard Hittin’ Hewitt’ at 3B…. does that mean anything? Splitting the time now instead of giving Hewitt every day?

  46. So far, Susdorf has hit far better than Slayden did at a similar point in his development. We’ll see.

  47. On the phils draft of the 22 unsigned players 17 of them are high school kids If the Phils can sign half of the 17 I would say that would be good

  48. Adam Buschini flies out in his first professional AB, and Hewitt follows him with a single.

  49. I bet Hewitt will get 95% of the ABs at 3B. Nice start by Way – they can’t handle the change-up! Barnes is also ripping it. Seems like an outlier based on his college stats, but let’s hope it’s not.

  50. catch22 says
    don’t want to see him winning MVPs for the Red Sox (”sure we’ll give you Brad Penny and all it will cost is Michael Taylor!”)

    That would be terrible. Could you see Taylor in that park drilling balls through the walls. I hope they dont but they seem deadset on trading Taylor. Haven’t they made enough mistakes this year.

  51. Buschini—Buschini played 2B. If they alternated with Hewitt at 3B, there would be no need to sit one out because they have a DH in that league. I do not think they will do that as Francisco Murillo has started to hit well and they seem to like Batts at 1B, so , I say, those 2 will alternate at 1B and DH. Buschini will likely play 2B with the 6’5 Evan Porter backing up Barnes at SS and Buschini at 2B.
    Hewitt has one more Strikeout than Barnes does. How’s that? The problem with Hewitt , so far, is lack of production.

    Nobody is waiting in line.

    This whole “age appropriate” thing , on here, is getting out of hand. You see that somebody in HI-A at 23 is too old for level, but just bouncing a level a year, they can go to MLB at 26, so what difference does it make , unless they are Starting Pitcher material.\, or a position player starter? Then the story is , they will only be a “4th or 5th OF type. One who Bats Left-Throws Left as a position player, and who nobody says has much power, could only play OF or 1B in MLB, and with little power, is highly unlikely to be an MLB regular from the “git-go”.

    There may be some merit to the idea that a pitcher or 2 at MLB level will not begin to solve enough of the problems to make a significant difference at this point. I do not think they would or should give up a whole lot at this point.

  52. Its time for CC in Philly. Bastardo needs to go down and work on his other pitches which he has seen he requires to be successful. I think he overthrew his fastball in the first two starts which resulted in the 95s but likely hurt his shoulder.

  53. hudson is playing american legion ball in vancover. If he is going to sign it should be now so he get a couple of months in gcl.

  54. First off, James, great site and great work. I was not into the whole prospect thing until stumbling upon this a few months ago and now check the site daily.
    I will weigh in with my two cents on CC and bringing him up. He did not have a great year at AA last year and is falling apart (again) this year when guys get on base. That is not a guy ready for the show or bored with the competition. Just to put things in perspective also, he is 9 months older than Drabek, so very little difference in age and is obviously still young. Leave him down there until he dominates for a few outings in a row at the least.

  55. Looks like another Cole Hamels on the way after reading this story:

    “Matt Way struck out three, didn’t walk a batter, and induced half of his 12 recorded outs on groundballs. He threw first-pitch strikes to 13 of the 21 batters he faced, and ran just one two-ball count.

    “He was pretty much fastball, change-up, but it was an above average change-up,” Fryman said. “He looked like a veteran out there. That impressed me a bit because he didn’t look the least bit nervous at all.”

    “He had a beautiful change-up,” Truby said. “He kept guys off balance and let them put it in play. For him to come and throw that way, and be aggressive in the zone, and still be able to go four innings while throwing 50 pitches is just a great job.” Mitch Rupert Wpt Sun Gazette.

  56. Carpenter for George Sherrill?
    or better yet +
    Carpenter + for Jim Johnson
    The Orioles need youth

  57. The Orioles’ system currently includes Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe. I doubt a pitcher on Carpenter’s level would entice them at all.

    The Orioles are another team thin on infield prospects. They’re bound to ask for Jason Donald.

  58. There’s a 4 year college guy (local kid) by the name of Chris Heisey absolutely tearing it up in AA for the Reds. 3-5 tools. 20th round selection. He’ll be a MLB player.

    You can find college guys who are late bloomers who end up being special. Either the guy filled out late, went to a small school, or just never got/heard the right piece of instruction that makes it all click.

    I don’t know that Susdorf is one of these guys, but I won’t stop pay attention to him until he stops producing.

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