VSL June Update – Who To Watch

1. VSL/DSL

Several readers had commented that it would be a useful exercise to highlight who to watch in the complex leagues this season.  The VSL started a few weeks ago, so now we have some idea of who is playing well and, frankly, who is playing.  These leagues are developmental leagues, so the better prospects generally play the most, and play at the most demanding defensive positions (SS/CF/C).  Without detailed scouting reports and eyewitness accounts of these players, we are really relying on their statistics and the Phillies judgement over who to play to form opionions on the players.

This article will deal with the VSL with a follow-up on the DSL next week.  One note on the DSL – A number of people have noticed the production of new 18-year-old signee Nevri Jimenez who started the year 17-30 with power (7 extra base hits) and speed (4 SB).  The only thing he has not done is draw walks, though it is hard to complain about that when you are 17-30.  While he is a little old to be considered a top prospect, the fact that he is a new signee batting in a prominent lineup position (leadoff) and playing prominent defensive positions (SS/CF) is a good sign.  He is clearly one to watch this season at DSL.

Getting back to the VSL, the Phillies do not appear to be a very good team.  They are in last place (7/7) in the league with a 5-13 record at this point.  They have shown some promise on offense with their younger players, but their pitching staff appears to be a disaster.  And the pitching staff is not especially young, so it is potentially lacking any serious prospects.  Here are the players to watch in the early going:

Nerio Rios – Rios is a SS with a plus glove and potentially better hitting tools than Freddy Galvis.  He is off to an OK start as a 17-year-old.  His average is only .231 with limited power, but he has added 10 BB to post a .388 OBP and .695 OPS.

Bernardo Solarte – Solarte and Rios were the two medium profile signees from last year.  Rios is a converted SS now playing CF.  He has plus speed and line drive power.  He is hitting .235 in only 34 AB with limited power and patience (.734 OPS)

Rosmel Fajardo – The youngest player on the squad (turns 17 in July), Fajardo is only hitting .229.  The reasons to watch him are age, defense (playing CF when Solarte is not) and speed (4 SB).

Willans Astudillo and Gregorio Machado – Two more 17-year-old OF are also getting playing time, though hitting only .203 and .147 respectively.  Astudillo is a utility type playing multiple positions, while Machado projects to being more of a power hitting OF (6’1″, 184).

The rest of the offense is not noteworthy at this stage.  Two older players, Luis Unda (age 19) and Marco Davalillo (age 18) are the only other players with a .700 OPS and they do not appear to be top prospects.  None of the new catchers have produced at this point as well.

As I noted earlier, the pitching staff is relatively old and may be devoid of prospects.  Three of the starters appear worth watching at this early stage.  All are age 19, so they really have to perform this year to be considered prospects.  Those three pitchers are the following:

Ely Izurriaga – Small lefty who has started with a 0.95 ERA in 4 starts (19 IP, 14 H, 3 BB, 22 K).  Izurriaga was OK last year, posting a 3.54 ERA in relief.

Zael Honora – New signee, at 6’2″ and 199 pounds Honora has decent size for a starter.  3.46 ERA so far in 3 starts (5 BB, 10 K).

Yosber Monzon – Monzon has a 3.75 ERA in 3 starts after posting a 5.73 ERA last year in 22 IP.

Beyond this it is difficult to spot other potential prospects.  Jesus Pirela is also in the starting rotation and striking out a fair number of hitters (18 in 19 IP).  He is 20, however, with a 4.75 ERA.  Jorge Guzman is also worth watching as the youngest pitcher on the squad (age 17).  He has not pitched well, however, posting 5+ ERAs both last year and in the early going this year.

13 thoughts on “VSL June Update – Who To Watch”

  2. Santana is probably going to play at GCL, though we will not really know that until they set the rosters. The Phillies generally fast track their higher profile signings straight to GCL to get them better coaching, nutrition, etc.

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  4. From BP today.

    10. Luis Jolly, LF, Dominican Republic
    Height/Weight: 6’2″/170
    Bats/Throws: R/R
    Jolly is a well-rounded outfielder with solid tools and hitting ability. He is athletic, and gifted with above-average speed, but he lacks the defensive instincts to project him as a center fielder. A below-average arm makes Jolly a left fielder, but happily there’s enough power emerging in his projectable frame. He makes consistent hard contact in workouts, but his bat will have to carry him to profile as an everyday left fielder. He’s drawn heavy interest from the Phillies and Dodgers, with the expected price in the $600-900,000 range.

    11. Chesler Cuthbert, 3B, Nicaragua
    Height/Weight: 6’1″/190
    Bats/Throws: R/R
    Cuthbert has a chiseled frame that had one international scouting director saying that it reminded him of a linebacker’s. He also has some length and stiffness to his swing, which has some thinking he may struggle to hit at higher levels. Cuthbert has solid to average speed, and good hands and range along with an average arm, which projects him to be a solid defensive third baseman. He can generate some legitimate power in BP displays with impressive bat speed and leverage. The only real concern is his general rawness, including what one scout called, “a little scariness to the bat.” A number of teams are interested, with the Royals, Braves, and Pirates mentioned most often, but the Phillies, Rangers, Mariners, Red Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals are also showing interest. The projected bonus has risen with growing interest from clubs and is projected to be in the $600-800,000 range.

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  5. I appreciate the write up, so thanks.
    But regarding the comment made about Jimenez: he turned 18 in March, so he will won’t be 19 until next spring…at 18, he could have just had a growth spurt, etc. and if you want to mention he is one of the older players in the league (is he?), that’s fine, but I think that calling someone at 18 “too old to be a prospect” is a bit of evaluation over-kill…he could easily be starting the season at Lakewood on or about his 20th birthday-would that be so out of line? Not picking on you, but I think the age issue is down the totem pole relative to years they have been playing, etc.

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  6. The comment on Jimenez noted that he was “a little old to be considered a top prospect” does not mean he could not turn into a top prospect. What we know today is that he is a little older than most of the top prospects in the DSL. While the average age of the league for all players is in the 18-19 range, prospects are usually age 16 or 17. In addition, the best prospects often skip directly to GCL.

    For example, Jimenez is the same age as Leandro Castro was in the DSL when he played there 2 years ago. Castro is a second tier prospect (then and now).

    This does not mean that Jimenez will not develop. Obviously if he continues to hit over .400 he is one to watch in any league. It is also possible that he signed a year or two later than other prospects because he was a late developer or even for personal reasons (like finishing high school).

    With all prospects, they really need to show performance at an age appropriate level to shoot up the charts. Michael Taylor did not make me a big believer until he hit Clearwater last year where he was more age appropriate than at Lakewood. Of course he has also taken it up another level next year.

    The DSL team actually has a second offensive player tearing it up in Geancarlo Mendez (hitting .538 with a 1200+ OPS). Mendez would be a lesser prospect than Jimenez because he is a year and a half older and plays a less demanding defensive position (1B mainly).

    It will be fun to watch Jimenez this season regardless.

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  7. The DSL team looks somewhat interesting to follow after the first few games. They have the two hitters leading the league and a pitcher who is tied for the most strike outs in the league.

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  8. Just heard an agent on Eskin show say the Phils will be signing 4 players from Dominican league. 3 players at 350,000 each and 1 at 380,000. Signings will be July 2nd. Have no further info cause I cant stand Howard even when hes talking about things I like.

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  9. Just as a general comment, and not trying to analyze the statistical relationship between age and prospect status or other potentially confounding variables that may blur that relationship, but this years teams in the VSL and DSL are younder than the teams that the Phillies have usually fielded in the past. At least we are moving in the right direction, even if we’re not quite there yet.

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  11. Thanks mbbear. Just trying to be realistic as much as possible, even when we get excited over a guy hitting .500. I remember a guy named Trino Aguilar who tore up the Venezuelan league at age 17 for the Phillies. He is now 25 years old and putting up .800 OPS seasons in Independent leagues, though never really made it to full season ball with an organization.

    MLL – On the age factor, the Phillies have gotten younger in their teams starting about 3 years ago. That is always a good sign. Baseball-reference.com has a great feature where the track the average age of each league (splitting hitters and pitchers). Here is the hitting page:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2009-organization-batting.shtml?redir

    DSL hitters for the Phillies are age 18.1 (vs 18.4 league average). VSL is even younger (17.8 vs 18.4). For pitchers we are a little older than average unfortunately (DSL 18.9 vs 18.8, VSL 19.4 vs 18.5). Those age averages are weighted by playing time. While the real prospects are always younger than this average, the relationship of the team to the league does tell a story. This is why we should be more excited about the hitters on each of these teams than the pitchers, especially the VSL pitchers.

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  12. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the team age for Venezuela given that they represent a specific group of prospects (Venezuelan amateur signees) rather than minor leaguers here who represent various stages of development.

    Worth noting that the first VSL player to make the Phillies was Sergio Escalona, and he was as old as 22 years old when he played there.

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  13. Those age calculations are based on playing time, so they do mean something. We have Bernardo Solarte and Nerio Rios playing regularly at age 17. Even if they struggle a little, they are often playing against older 19 and 20-year-olds. That does not necessarily mean they are great prospects. It just puts their performance in context with expectations. I agree they need to come over to the U.S. to have a better evaluation of how good they are. The pitching staff being both older than average and mediocre is not a good sign.

    BTW, Carlos Silva was a Venezuelan signee 10+ years ago. I think he played early in the DSL because we did not yet have our VSL team.

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