This week we will take a quick look at the VSL and DSL teams this summer. As always, these reports are based on little more than statistics over the Internet, so they are highly subjective. The key statistic to look for is age-based performance. In general, the better prospects are the younger ones that get regular playing time. Prospects over the age of 19 are rarely top prospects. The Phillies VSL squad last year might have been a slight exception to that rule as 3 20-year-olds (Freddy Ballestas, Yonderman Rodriguez, and Harold Garcia) are all making significant contributions in the U.S. this season. It remains to be seen if all of them are prospects, however, as each is somewhat old for the league they are playing in.
The VSL Phillies are currently in 3rd place out of 8 teams in the league with a record of 28-24. Unfortunately the best players on the team have tended to be the older players. The average age of the team is slightly above the league average this year and many of the younger players have struggled. This article will take a look at the top players and prospects so far, with a follow-up article after the season ends to rank the top prospects.
Hitters
The three younger players that have had some success this year are Cesar Hernandez (age 18, 2B), Vernal Bogle (age 18, OF), and Francisco Diaz (age 18, C). Hernandez is in his second season and has shown flashes of doubles and triples power over 2 years. He is hitting .280 with 6 3B, 14 SB, and an improved walk rate to give him a .781 OPS. His biggest negative may be that he was moved off of SS for the most part after playing most of last year there.
Vernal Bogle is a new signee from Panama and has hit .295 with a little power (8 XBH) and speed (10 SB). His OPS is .808, though he has benefitted from a .390 average on balls in play. Diaz is a catcher who has raised his average from .234 to .306 this year. He has limited power, though a decent walk rate gives him a .768 OPS.
The team’s top offensive players are three older players. Anderson Alvarez (age 20) was released by the Yankees last year and signed as a C/IB with the Phillies. He is hitting .279 with 3 HR and an .802 OPS. Lev1 Rossi (age 21, OF) also has 3 HR to go with a .310 average and an .805 OPS. Finally, Jorge Guerra (age 20) is another catcher with plus offense (.282 average, 2 HR, 39 RBI, .756 OPS). Guerra had even better offensive stats last year, so his lack of a promotion is probably a signal that the team does not think he is a top prospect.
Several younger players are worth watching. Winder Torres (age 17, OF) has been hurt most of the year and has hit only .206 in limited playing time. He is still worth watching after last season’s .790 OPS at age 16. Edgar Duran is a 17-year-old SS who is good enough there to have pushed Cesar Hernandez to 2B, though his offense has been limited so far (.233 average). Finally, Luis Martinez and Luis Unda are 2 18-year-old OF that have put up passable numbers. Martinez is a big 6’5″ kid in his third year that is hitting a little bit (.662 OPS), though not quite enough to be noticed as a top prospect.
Pitchers
The top starter on the team is 21-year-old Juan Colmenarez in his 4th season with the team. Colmenarez (LHP) is 5-3 with a 1.95 ERA (60 IP, 56 H, 7 BB, 38 K). He went to Spring Training with the Phillies this year but did not make the cut for GCL (probably got caught in a numbers game). Jose Hernandez is a 20 year old RHP in his first season with the club that has also been solid at 4-2 with a 2.48 ERA (58 IP, 61 H, 9 BB, 39 K). Neither Colmenarez or Hernandez is likely to be a top prospect at their age.
The 3rd starter is a little younger and may be a pitcher to watch. Jesus Pierla (age 19, RHP) is in his second season and has improved from a 5+ ERA to go 1-2 with a 3.16 ERA (42.2 IP, 36 H, 19 BB, 26 K). Manuel Landaeta (age 20, 2-3, 3.46) and Ricciard Rodriguez (LHP, age 20, 2-1, 2.90) round out the rotation. Unfortunately that means that 4 of the top 5 starters are at least age 20 and not likely top prospects.
Most of the younger pitchers are starting in relief. Ely Izurriaega is an 18-year-old LHP that has gone 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA, though he has 23 Ks in only 18.1 IP. Jorge Guzman is the only 16-year-old on the team and has predictably struggled with a 5.59 ERA. His consistent innings, however, is probably a sign he is a prospect. Orlando Garces is a 17 year-old LHP also getting consistent innings with some better results (3.79 ERA, 19 IP, 20 H, 9 BB, 14 K).
The consistent theme for this year’s Phillies’ VSL squad is older players. While a few younger players have performed well (mostly on offense), the bulk of contributions to the winning record have come from players age 20 or more. While some of the anonymous younger reserves will take steps forward over the course of this year and next, few have stood out as potential top prospects.
Next Up – A DSL update
Phuture Phillies 
“Orlando Garces is a 170year-old LHP”
Little old for the VSL?
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I looked at box scores a few days ago and noticed that the average age was older than I’d hoped to see, so possibly just a down year.
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They definitely are older in the VSL this year. A couple of the younger players from last year (Winder Torres, Kirlian Campo, Luis Martinez) have also not taken huge steps forward. This does not mean the team is completely devoid of prospects. But it does mean that nobody has really impressed.
DSL is a little different story. The team has a terrible record, but this is mostly due to actually playing some younger players. Of course, when your high priced signee is hitting .154, simply playing the younger guys does not mean they are prospects. There are a couple of players (namely Juan Sosa) that have been impressive on the DSL squad.
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Valenzuela has been a huge disappointment.
But even bigger, have the Phillies made ANY signings at all this summer?
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Saberscouting.com had a note in one of their threads saying the Phillies had signed 3-4 mid-level players. I assume this means in the $100K-$300K range, though I suppose it could be a little more if all range prices have gone up.
Hopefully they have raised the signing budget which was reportedly about $1 million last year. While we can definitely see that the Phillies have spent more on the draft this year, There is no reason they should not also budget $2-$3 million internationally.
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The phillies can build all the academics they want the record speaks for itself. In thirty years only one player has reach double a carrasco.They were the last team in the latin market and at one time had no scouts in latin america. They can’t see that players coming out of these countries and they are missing them.
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To be fair, the Phillies system has produced some other major leaguers in recent years:
Carlos Silva
Robinson Tejeda
Miguel Asencio
Elizardo Ramirez
Eude Brito
Other than Silva, none have had much of a career. But Carrasco is not the only one to get to AA. What is painful is that this team was one of the leaders in the 1970s, signing Juan Samuel, Julio Franco and George Bell in one short period.
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Are the Phillies out of the Adis Portillo mix?
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andyb How bad are those names.
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Baxter he signed with another club.
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Portillo signed for $2.2M with the Padres. This is the link to the story where the Phillies are mentioned near the end of the comments:
http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/07/02/july2update/
Also, I forgot Carlos Ruiz on that international list of players that have made the majors in the last few years. There are probably a handful of others as well. While Ruiz has been a huge disappointment, he has been a great value for his reported $8,000 bonus. He is an example of why age is so important. If age 27 is the peak year of most players, Ruiz was already at his peak when he made the majors. He is 29 now. Hopefully he can get back to being a .250-.275 hitter with maybe 10 HR power, but he is looking more like a backup these days.
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PP, This is totally off topic, but BP came out with their midseason top 150 and we have 5 guys listed… not too shabby and worth a post
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It’s actually rotoworld who made the list, Carrasco was ranked pretty high. But I agree definitely worth a post.
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cool. does someone have the names and numbers?
probably 4 now that cardenas is gone.
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Carassco 18
Marson 63
Donald 111
Bastardo 138
Savery 148
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It hard for me to believe that donald is 111.This kid has done nothing but improve. He has hit at every level. In my opion a better prospect than carassco,and at this stage marson. I heard people talk about him playing third. When I e-mail the phillies about him moving they said that they are happy with him at short,what does that mean is my question.Then I read he has a great arm . There isn’t one PLAYER who can in this system play third in the next two to three years. why not donald.
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welcome to an average farm system boys…and i mean that in a good way…30 teams means that 5 per team is average. that means that our farm system is not “baren” as others suggest. and it probably would have been 6. where was adrian ranked?
as for the rankings…carasco at 18! that seems high to me, but i love the recognition. i just can’t believe that he is the 18th best prospect in the minors. on the flip side, i think that marson seems low to me only because he is a catcher.
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I think a lot of Phils prospects are so low, because they haven’t ever been ranked by Rotoworld before. Marson, Donald, Bastardo were all new to their lists.
Savery has had an up and down year so far, so I can’t say I’m shocked they have him rated so low . . . . although if he finishes strong this year I’m sure he’ll be rated a lot higher next year.
That’s just my guess though.
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rocky – we all love donald, but he doesn’t exactly project as a major league all star. he is a guy that will hit .275/.280, draw some walks and hit an occasional double while playing good, solid defense. i don’t think that he has one plus, plus tool. sorry to be a wet blanket, but i think that he is right where he should be. not that he isn’t a valuable member of our system. just that he isn’t our best prospect.
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If we take that list at face value, we remain a bit below average. An average team would have 5 prospects on list, but they would be rated #15, #45, #75, #105, #135. Each of our prospects below average for his bracket and we have none in the second bracket and two in the lowest bracket. I don’t think Donald is rated too low. His bat projects as weak for 3B and he does not project to be even an average defensive major league SS. His ceiling seems to be adequate major league starter. I think they are generous with Bastardo. He is a really smallish starting RHP and is currently out with an arm injury. I’d adjust his impressive stats down on both counts. Based on his last month’s performance and acknowledged potential, Savery is probably ranked too low, probably because the list is a little stale.
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Okay now that is said does anyone have any leads or rumors to tell about the unsign draft choices. I have tried to see if there is anything on pettibone or weber but have failed. maybe someone can find something on them for us.
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