Reader Top 30 #19 – Dylan Cozens

2013 Reader Top 30

Zach Collier takes the #17 spot and Austin Wright takes the #18 spot.  Tyler Cloyd has been added to the mix.

List so far:

  1. Biddle
  2. Quinn
  3. Morgan
  4. Joseph
  5. Franco
  6. Ruf
  7. Asche
  8. Pettibone
  9. Martin
  10. Tocci
  11. Aumont
  12. Gillies
  13. Watson
  14. Greene
  15. Valle
  16. De Fratus
  17. Collier
  18. Wright

Here is the compiled spreadsheet of all rankings out so far https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aq9atTaYBdErdDFibUpEVENleTB0Mnk1X0dSb19DSWc

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

46 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #19 – Dylan Cozens”

  1. Mitch Gueller.

    No particular reason. Just trusting the scouting and high pick over the remaining guys with low ceilings or big flaws. Plus, it seems inconsistent to have Watson at #13 and then leave Gueller until 19+. Not that much space between them.

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  2. Cozens. Massive power potential is too ignore. As an 18-year-old fresh off his high school graduation, he finished top five in the GCL in HR (5) and top 10 in SLG (.441). The 11.5/24 BB/K rate isn’t awful for a raw power hitter. The likelihood is strong that he’ll flame out, but, man, if he does tap into his potential …

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  4. I’m really liking Ceasar Hernandez here….another good year plus a down year from Utley could mean Ceasar is your 2014 opening day 2b.

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    1. Who is a Hernandez comp? We’ve been so spoiled with Utley that I’ve forgotten what a normal sceond baseman is like.

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          1. Galvis is a good fall back at second if short isn’t open because he provides great defense. That isn’t a bad outcome for your second baseman, we are used to Utley there, but that is at least a second division starter profile. Also if Quinn cannot stick at short expect a move to second before they send him to center. But this is all speculation because I would expect at least another 2 years out of Utley, possibly with Hernandez on hand for injury situations.

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    2. This makes me ponder different types of optimism. What’s more optimistic – to think that Hernandez could be a regular second baseman for a contender, or to think (hope) the Phillies can do better? As a practical matter, though Hernandez may be the best option when Utley leaves/retires.. Hence why, I suppose, I am not really either type of optimist.

      I will say this – if Ultely is relatively health and re-signed (and if he is relatively healthy he will be re-signed) he will be the Phillies’ second baseman in 2014, even if he has a “down” year.

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      2. It will be interesting if the Philles make a serious run at Robinson Cano (10y 180m). Cano, David Wright and Utley have very close career numbers. If Utley has avery good bounce back year (140g 850+ OPS) they will resign him (3y 33-39m), but if he has a mediocre year I say they go after Cano.

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        1. I am a little skeptical of the risk factor for a contract of that length, and I think the Yankees will re-sign him. But if they don’t, and if Utley has another season where he misses over 1/4 of the season, I think they should/will at least kick the tires on Cano. After all, they’ll have payroll space and the rest of the FA market next year is pretty bad.

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        2. If Cano is worth signing, he’ll sign with the Yankees. They won’t be outspent for a player they want and Cano is basically their future at this point and isn’t going anywhere.

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  5. Colvin.

    Would everyone be interested in posting their own personal top 30 if we had a separate section to do so, or separate post? I’d be interested in seeing everyone else’s rankings, and could be interesting to look back on during and after the season. Also, might be interesting to post each person’s estimated top ten at the end of the season. Thoughts?

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    1. It is in the plan. So the week after the votes are done this is the schedule:
      Monday – Full List Discussion (Plus poll on the remaining guys to see who would have been on people’s list)
      Tuesday – Readers Top 30 Thread – will put all of the lists in the spreadsheet that has been appearing and put it somewhere on the site for future reference
      Wed-Fri – Matt, Brad, and Gregg Top 30s
      After that there will likely be a breakout player thread and a sleeper thread.

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      1. Wow, that “Brad Top 30” is like three weeks away. I guess I should start writing…BOO REALITY CHECK!

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        1. Love the idea of showing the entire board my shear brilliance or quite possibly that I am a complete idiot when it comes to projecting players!

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    1. If Colvin finds command he pushes Biddle for 1. He’d be docked rightfully for being inconsistant, but on pure talent he’d have to be in that conversation. Big IF but every player on this list has a big IF attached to them.

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    2. It isn’t just control for Colvin, at this point is velocity and stuff is inconsistent start to start. He has lost his mechanics almost completely, They are going to have rebuild him as a pitcher before there is any hope of him starting.

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  7. Dugan here for me. I think he has more upside than Hernandez. I’d agree that Cozens and Gueller probably have bigger upside I just want to see more.

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    1. Also took a flier on Dugan. He flies a bit under the radar here and is a little old for his level, but improved substantially when moved up to Lakewood last season. If his injuries are now behind him, he could have a strong season.

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  8. Walding here. Expect him to continue to work hard and break out for 2013. He had a bunch of tough luck last year but the tools are there.

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  11. I also think Walding will have a good 2013. Last year he showed good hitting early on, even though he fizzled towards the end.His defence keeps improving & he looks like a solid 3rd baseman. He just needs to realize it’ a marathon not a sprint & handle the ups & downs.

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    1. Thanks for posting. I’ve been checking everywhere to get information on Lewis Alezones. It was said that the Phillies spent 2 million on LA signings last year. Grullon for 575k, Pujols for 540k and Willerker Isava for 200k. That leaves over 650K. I knew Alezones was one of the signees from Venezuela. Now I know he got 320K.
      I consider bonus numbers when ranking the prospects that haven’t played. 320K is significant from the Phillies for LA pitchers. Alezones just jumped from #70 on my list to #45 on bonus alone. LOL.

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  13. I love that Tyler Cloyd was added, but I’m not ready to vote for him just yet. Cozens here.

    I’d like to see Hernandez hit the ball harder. I’m not saying power because it’s not his game, but the high percentage of junk pitches at AAA kind of slowed him, I think. Just my impression. He’s good at 2B, but I’m not sure he’s a finished product there, either. I am interested to watch him this year, though.

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    1. One under explored aspect of “power” is, I think, the extent to which even mid range power has the ancillary impact of (all else being equal) also driving up BB rates. We talk about the “poor plate discipline” of certain players who really have good to excellent plate discipline but don’t walk much simply because pitchers aren’t afraid of the long ball. The following players all have above average plate discipline as measured by O-swing%, yet below average BB rates:

      Pierre
      Revere
      Eckstein

      The point isn’t that these guys are under rated because they don’t get credit for their plate discipline; they aren’t under rated, if anything they (not so much Revere at this point) tend to be over rated. It’s just tough to be a successful major league hitter in the 21st century if you don’t have enough power to keep the pitcher honest.

      I don’t know where Hernandez fits in here as we don’t have sufficient data for minor league players. But his BB rate in 2010 at least suggests decent plate discipline; his subsequent mediocre to poor BB data could at least possibly be a result of lack of respect from opposing pitchers.

      To what extent do I buy this? In Hernandez’ case, not much, as a comment up thread suggested. But he is still fairly young; to the extent he exceeds current expectations, IMO it will be by developing some mid-range power, hopefully accompanied by a higher BB rate. His ISO in AA was a career high (mainly doubles and triples).

      This is also IMO an issue for Tocci and to a lesser extent Quinn. No one thinks Tocci can become a real power guy, but if he fills out to the point of having at least mid range power, he could develop into a star. Whereas a player with little to no power pretty much has to do everything else very well to be successful. (It’s also why a player like Bourn is such a risk for premature decline – once the speed goes there isn’t much left.)

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      1. Concerning the topic of BB% Rate. Why isn’t this statistic further broken down? There would be differing importance to the BB. The BB as the lead-off hitter in an INNING has been proven to be more detrimental to a pitcher and defensive team then the BB with one or more outs. And naturally the BB with the bases-loaded is obvious. Is there anywhere in Fangraphs or BaseballRefernce that breaks down this scenario per player?

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        1. Not directly. They do have stats which aggregate all offensive events and calculate their situational value, and they have situational stats from which you can calculate your own percentages.

          I think the assumption – a reasonable one – is that there aren’t players who “pick their spots” in terms of situational BB, and, even in situations where BB has a (little) less situational value, the differential isn’t quite as great as you might think. There aren’t many if any cases where it makes sense to be more “aggressive” as a hitter because of the situation, contrary to popular belief.

          As a general rule, if a BB in a situation is worse for the hitting team (than swinging away), the pitcher will issue an IBB. Of course it is possible that teams are overly reluctant to issue IBB, but if anything the evidence indicates the opposite.

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      2. Yeah, I mean, it’s the only my power of observation: I saw him play a few times in Reading and felt like he could see some fastballs and square them up–drive them to the gaps and beat out a double–or slap it down the line and go for three. Then, watching every game in LHV it seemed like he didn’t get the same opportunities and when he did get hits they were soft liners that were mostly singles. That said, I think there’s the opportunity to improve. Not homers, now, just doubles and triples like you say. Kinda the same type of improvement we saw from Freddy Galvis a little bit ago.

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  14. I have changed my order a few times in the last few weeks. C Hernandez is one of the harder placements for me, but I’ll take him for #19. I don’t see Hernandez as any lesser prospect than De Fratus or Collier. So I think #19, right behind them, is appropriate. I need more positive information on Gueller before ranking him significantly higher than Cozens, Pullin or Vargas. I’ll be picking from that group at #20 and 21.

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  15. Wow, this was a tough one for me. I was thinking Dugan at first, then maybe Hernandez, then Altherr, then Rupp and Colvin, and then I voted for Gueller. I’m just trusting the Phils’ scouts and the reports about his potential.

    All those guys I mentioned, plus Vargas and Cozens, will come into play for me over the next few rounds. Also a couple college pitchers who did well in their debuts- Milner and Brady. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more talk about them since they could move through the system pretty quick.

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    1. Brady’s stats make him look real good. Milner’s a weird case since he was in the pen in college. Hard to get a good read on him while he was still stretching out for the first half of the his 2012 pro season.

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  17. Hernandez for me here at 20. He has speed and plays good defense. He also gets his share of hits. Sounds like at least #20 for me.

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