We are closing in, and I wanted to quickly put this out here, as I’ve gotten a few emails on the subject. The signing deadline is on Monday, August 15th at midnight. We should know a few hours before, like we have in past years, what the Phillies plan to do. So far, we know that they have a meeting set with Ryan Garvey tomorrow, at least based on the articles I’ve seen. Pre-signing deadline workouts are very common, and I’ve been told another group of guys will be coming to Philadelphia this weekend to work out. This normally involves a round of batting practice for the position guys, and maybe a light bullpen for pitching prospects. After which, the team will negotiate with the guys involved and try to see if there is common ground. Check below for more
As it stands now, the Phillies have signed 24 of their picks, spending about $1.7M in total. You can posit that they will spend around $3M more, which includes locking up their first 2 picks. They could spend more, I guess they could spend less too, but I imagine it will be somewhere around $3M. I figured my last bit of speculation will be to give you my gut opinion on the odds of the rest of the guys signing. This is not based on some kind of inside information, its just my assumptions. I have a few people I could ask for information, but I’d rather not bother them with this, and we’ll all know soon enough. I’ll break the groups down in terms of the % chance that I think they sign
99% certain: Larry Greene Jr (1S)
95% certain: Roman Quinn (2)
65% certain: Mitchell Walding (5)
50% certain: Ryan Garvey (15), Brandon Pletsch (34), Jesen Dygestile-Therrien (17), Braden Shull (27)
20% certain: Jake Overbey (10), Riley Moore (21), Brett Maggard (38)
10% certain: Brendon Hayden (36)
5% certain: Tim Ponto (39), Everyone else not mentioned (too long to list them all out)
0% certain: Zach Wright (6)
Anything can happen. For instance, if Roman Quinn doesn’t want to sign for $750K, maybe they offer $750K to Riley Moore, who has a rock solid college commitment. I believe there is a strong chance they could land everyone in the 50% certain and up group.
Greene – $850K
Quinn – $750K
Walding – $500K
Garvey – $450K
Pletsch – $350K
JDT – $200K
Shull – $300K
That would be $3.4M total, added to the $1.3M we’ve spent, and you have $4.7M. More than last year, a significant commitment, but not an outrageous outlay, and zero $1M+ bonuses in the draft, something that would appeal to their risk based strategy.
I figure there will be at least one article this weekend, probably from Jim Salisbury, with some interesting tidbits. If I hear anything else before the deadline that I can actually write here, I will be sure to share it.