Thoughts on David Herndon

Spring Training 2010

Had my first good look at his in today’s game against Detroit. Though his minor league peripherals weren’t amazing last year, he generates a good amount of groundballs, and seeing his sinker today, its not tough to figure out how he does it. He also snapped off two nice sliders on the outer half to RHB, and then threw a softer slurvy type breaker on the inside corner which just missed. Without radar gun readings on the tv screen, it looked like he was able to add/subtract a bit on his sinker. The Phillies have to decide what to do in the bullpen, and it could be really tough to keep him. With the two injured pitchers out, the locks are

Madson, Baez, Contreras, Durbin

Bastardo is a near lock as the only healthy lefty.

That leaves Herndon and Mike Zagurski, the latter hasn’t thrown much at all. Zagurski has one option left, I believe, so he could be sent to the minors without losing him to waivers, while Herndon has to stay on the 25 man roster. Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer are battling for the 5th spot. Kendrick has options left, Moyer obviously doesn’t. When Lidge and Romero come back, it could set off a chain reaction which will ultimately lead to Herndon getting squeezed out. If the Phillies like him enough to think he could help later in the year, they’d have to work out a trade for his rights with Anaheim.

49 thoughts on “Thoughts on David Herndon”

  1. Might be tough to get a trade with the Angels. The guy they took from the Angels last year, Mosebach, did pretty well last year for LA. Maybe the Angels like the Philly pitching coaches.

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  2. Perhaps it might be best to just cut Moyer. He’s taking up a roster spot. We’ve done it before (Eaton, Jenkins).

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  3. I’m not in a tremendous hurry to cut a pitcher (Moyer) who has contributed so many innings with stuff not much better than he has now. I’m far less confident in Chad Durbin, who really did not pitch well enough last year to earn a guaranteed spot.

    As for Herndon, I think with potential injuries to Lidge and Romero there may be a spot open. No hijinxs. If he earns the spot he stays, but otherwise he deserves to be with the Angels’ organization in the end.

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  4. Just maybe it would be a good idea to see if Herndon can actually get batters out in a real game before deciding which proven ML pitcher is cut.

    The guy give up more that 1 hit per inning and strikes out batters at Kyle Kendrick’s pace in the minors so I can’t get too excited about him based on a few ST innings.

    They can keep him around for a couple of weeks to open the season if they are still interested but he’s going to have to prove more than he has so far.

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  5. I think Moyer will start the year on the DL. Say Herdon does make our 25 man for the whole year would he have to be on major league roster again in 2011 or would he have an option(s)?

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  6. I would not cut Jaime Moyer in order to keep David Herndon. There is no need for that. The Phillies have at least 10 pitching prospects that I would be willling to trade in this type of minor transaction.
    If the Phillies go to the Angels and tell them they are going to keep Herndon no matter what, the Angels have other choice than to accept a decent arm in return or risk getting nothing (25K).
    I would give them a list of about 5-6 pitchers to choose from, featuring Cisco, Naylor, Cloyd, Hyatt, Sampson or Escalona. The Angels do not have leverage if the Phillies preface the offer with the idea that they will stash him either way.

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  8. Working out a trade for Herndon might not be necessary if he does well in the majors. But I do like the idea of threatening to keep him to get the trade worked out to then put Herndon in the minors to polish him up. He looks like he could be a great relief pitcher, especially in the ground ball friendly CBP.

    Plus, with Aumount, we could have some really tall pitchers.

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  9. I was just lookin at Herndon in boxscore and wondered if he had a chance …Came here to see if i could find something on him and boom…here it is…I think he gets a week or two tryout until JC gets back…that may buy Phils sometime…could always put kendrick in minors till then ( even though i want him over Moyer in rotation)

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  11. 3up3kkk – the reason for the excitement (for me anyway) is not based on the statistics – it’s based on having actually seen him pitch. He stuff was surprisingly good. Today’s Inquirer said that he almost exclusively throws the sinker (and threw it all but 2 pitches yesterday). Well, if that’s true (and it very well may be) he has great command and can apparently make the pitch go in different directions with great movement. And, although there was no gun numbers posted yesterday, he appeared to throw very hard – it seemed that the sinker was in the 90-93 range.

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  13. Herndon- after giving this some thought I remembered a few complications to all this. Before Herndon can simply be offered to Angels he must pass through waivers. This rule protects the players interest somewhat , as he had chance to be on MLB roster, and ordinarily Angels could simply place him in minors and retain his rights, he would have a chance to see if other MLB teams would keep him on roster. I think in this case it would start with Washington and go through Pittsburgh , Kansas City, et al., if any team would keep him on the 25 man roster, he is likely gone from Philly. The team making the waiver claim would inherit the stipulations of season long roster presence that Philly has. If he should somehow make it through this, then he would be offered back to Angels for $25,000 and, since he is out of options, the fact that he has been through league-wide waivers would enable them to outright him to minors. I believe that if Philly or a team making a waiver claim were to trade for Herndon and then attempted to send Herndon to the minors they would first have to put him through league-wide waivers because he is out of options.

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  14. I would start Moyer in the rotation, move KK down to keep him ready to eventually replace Moyer in the rotation through ineffectiveness or injury and leave Herndon as the last man in the bullpen. Lidge and Romero can replace Bastardo and Zagurski. Those two both have options and unless they force the teams hand I don’t see them being completely ready anyway.

    Trade nothing. It’s not necessary.

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  15. RodeoJones – Sounds like the best plan. I think they’ll end up putting Kendrick in the minors to start the season regardless, because if my calculations are correct, they won’t need a 5th starter until Saturday April 24. They’ll probably want Kendrick to continue pitching during that time.

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  16. The team has plenty of time to make a decision on Herndon. They have at least 4 weeks. Jaime Moyer could get a hangnail and the phillies could put him on the 60 day DL. There are a number of ways to keep Herndon, if he is really good enough to bother.

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  17. And, if I’m not mistaken, Herndon only has to be with the team for 90 days if he goes on the DL. So, if the Phillies are ever in a bind, they can stash him on the DL and not have to send him back.

    Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft#Description

    I am beginning to wonder if the rest of our bullpen, if they falter, will be replaced with Bastardo. I mean, I don’t know anything about them yet. But I guess the Phillies don’t really have as big as a bullpen issue as we thought when the season ended.

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  18. I’m thinking the pen looks better this year than last on paper and based on ST performance. One reason I say this is Phils actually have some depth in Bastardo, Escalona, Zags, Rosenberg, Schwimmer, even Eyre later in the season.

    Obviously, though, the big IFs are Lidge and Romero turning in decent performance this year. If that happens, I think Phils can mix and match the other guys, along with whoever might be available in trade at the deadline for a Carpenter or someone like that.

    Bottom line is there is a real chance for a good pen this year, especially if improved rotation turns in more IP/game.

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  19. Sidetrack: DiamondDerby, they’ve been saying that, because of pinch hitting, if the Phillies are trailing in a Halladay game that they’ll likely pull him for a pinch hitter – thus giving Halladay less innings and less complete games.

    Do you think this is a wise strategy?

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  21. They shouldn’t be trailing in many games that Halladay is pitching in, but if they are trailing they would be crazy not to pinch hit for him once he comes up in the 8th

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  22. Dr. Steve: That may happen 2 or 3 times, but unlikely before the 7th inning and not in a close game. I can’t see that costing Halladay more than 3-5 innings all year because he seldom gets hit hard and they are mostly him leading or a close game where they need him to keep it close. Maybe once or twice a season there will be bases loaded, one or no outs in the 7th inning in a 1-1 ballgame. In that case, they may pinch hit. If man or first or first and second with no or 1 out, they might have Halladay bunt.

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  23. Matt, your calculations are off. The Phillies will have to use their 5th starter on April 10th, the 5th game of the season. If not, they will pitch their #2, #3 and #4 starters on 3 days rest in the 2nd week of the season.
    The Phillies need the 5th starter. David Herndon will not make the team over Kendrick or Moyer, that is just not realistic.

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  24. I’d go with stashing him on the DL as the Pirates and the Cubs pulled that stunt last year with their rule 5 guys. As soon as someone goes down, he could come off the DL and such. I would say keep him for sure though, he’s been really good in the spring and in my view deserves a spot on the team for the time being. Even if he can’t stick, I would trade him for Worley/Sampson or someone along those lines.

    Another way out there option could be maybe sending Bastardo down, keeping Moyer as the lefty, and having Kendrick in the 5 spot. Highly unlikely, but I’m just really throwing that one out there.

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  25. Correct me if I am wrong. If the Phillies stash Herndon on the DL, they would be stuck paying him a major league salary for no production and no development. He would not get development in the minors, because he would be in the majors. Would the Phillies be willing to pay 350K, just to stash Herndon? Minor league salaries are much less.

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  26. Moyer as a LOOGY simply doesn’t work. You need a true LOOGY and a long relief guy like Moyer.

    Let’s be honest, Moyer is 47. He’s not gonna be able to go back-to-back or multiple short relief sessions. If he’s in the BP (not likely) then it will be like last year in the 2nd half.

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  27. A decision on Herndon is not needed just yet. Pitch him in as many spots as possible in order to get the rest of the bullpen ready. I think Kendrick takes the 7th bullpen spot (like Happ last year but Happ was a lefty).
    Bastardo takes Romero’s spot. Herndon takes Lidge’s spot. If possible they should try to get Herndon some action in the early games and see what he does.
    When Lidge is ready then they will have to decide what to do. Sending Bastardo down would leave no lefties in the pen. Sending Kendrick down would be unfortunate since he is pitching very well and deserves to stick with Halladay. Moyer is not going to be cut just to keep Herndon. Maybe Durbin will head to IR for a hangnail.

    I think there is a limit to how many IR days a rule 5 pick can have before being offered back to original team. I think Herndon would still have 3 option years because he would be on the 40 man roster if Phillies traded for him. He would have to stay on the 40-man but not the 25-man and would be optioned went sent down and not subjected to waivers.

    I originally though Bastardo would retain the 7th BP spot with Kendrick in the minors. Maybe Herndon takes that spot. Most likely, the Phillies will need to trade a lower level starting pitcher who is actually a prospect to keep Herndon. No Chase Chapman or Jacob Diekman will do. Cloyd or Cisco seem like adequate compensation for a near majors ready reliever. Without some other injurry to the pitching staff my guess is that Herndon goes back to the Angels.

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  28. As far as roster management goes, if Herndon is stashed successfully on the 25 man all season, then he would have 3 option years left starting in 2011.

    If the Phillies arrange a trade with LAA, he can be optioned down because he is on the 40 man roster already. These types of situations, where teams work out trades, normally involve the team trading a player who is not on the 40 man roster to the other team, but not someone hugely valuable. So for the Phillies, it might be a guy who has to be protected after 2010, maybe an Edgar Garcia type.

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  30. My prediction is that Lidge, Romero, and Moyer all start the year on the DL. That will buy them more time to see where they all stand. I think it’s possible one of them still won’t be ready or maybe someone else will go down by then.

    The Phillies have 3 scheduled off days in the first 15 days of the season, plus they play 6 vs Nats, 3 Stros, 3 Fish. 5 or 6 wins shouldn’t be very difficult

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  31. Speaking of guys who have to be protected after the 2010 season: What about Joe Savery? He has to be considered a trade candidate this year. No way, would I want to waste a 40 man spot on him at this point. My posts may get marked as spam for saying this, but I would trade Savery before I give up on Garcia. I would rather not trade either guy for Herndon though.

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  32. I really dont see Savery as anything but a loogy maybe everyone is talking like herdon is great. I think we have his type now in the minors, rosenberg, swimmer type is what i see him as not a big time starter.

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  35. Sad part is Savery was 2nd in the minors with 16 wins even with his piss poor stats. I loved it when he got called up to AAA and went 4-0 off the start even though he pitched mostly like crap.

    And his BB:K ratio = BLEH

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  36. 1. There’s hope for Savery yet. He’s young still.

    2. When they drafted him, weren’t people worried they’d be ruining a good hitter by turning him into a pitcher? Didn’t he play outfield or something?

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  38. Salvery is just to me like other rice pitchers that were drafted. use too much and hurt,its like the stanford guys who fall into the so call stanford swings, just would try to stay away from drafting these guys, most never make it

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  39. Catch, I’m more of a “see ’em pitch” vs. stats guy as well but there’s also value in looking at performance over a long term vs. a few ST innings.

    Herndon has looked good so far but as someone else posted above, his stuff isn’t really much different than Condrey’s.

    I hope he pitches well and earns a job in the pen the entire season but I’m not ready to dump a player with a proven ML track record until he shows he can do the job when the lights come on.

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  40. Agreed there. I’ve seen guys look hugely impressive in single outings who never could stick in the majors.

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  41. ****There’s hope for Savery yet. He’s young still.****

    Well, he’s 24 this year…this is definitely a make or break year for him.

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  42. Whoa, Savery is 24? When did that happen?

    And, as for Herndon, there’s no harm in putting him in some early games. If he really, really struggles you can release him. But if he’s looking decent to good, you can keep him.

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  43. Phillies/Yankees 1pm on ESPN and the YES Network. David Herndon is scheduled to pitch according to the Phillies’ press notes. Hamels and Bastardo also scheduled to pitch.

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  45. I thought he was done after 1 inning, but they brought him back out because he was so efficient. After getting the first two outs, he left a sinker up to both Granderson and Tex, and both were lined back up the middle for hits. There’s some degree of luck there, as he’s relying on the ball being put in play, but if those pitches are 2 inches lower in the zone, they are probably both beat into the ground for easy outs. He got the third out on a line drive to LF from Swisher.

    Overall, I’m still very impressed. His fastball has excellent movement, and he threw one or two nice changeups. He’s going to have to mix in more breaking balls, because if he does make the team, the scouting report will get around on him right away, and lefties will just be lunging toward the outside corner. But I think he’s got an interesting tool set, and I hope the Phillies find a way to keep him around.

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  47. Stutes was out there throwing 91-92 mph fastballs and a good slider. If he keeps that going, he’s at least a nice bullpen piece. Possibly more.

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  48. Stutes is probably being groomed to replace a guy like Durbin and he would apprear to the have the right skill set to do that. I’m a big Stutes fan.

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