First off, apologies for having not cranked out A Closer Look piece in a little bit, though big thanks to governator for his interesting piece on Matt German in the meantime. Not sure if I’ll have a chance to write anything before I head on vacation this weekend, but I’ll definitely be back at it when I get back.
In the meantime, the system got some pub from both BA and BP today. Check below the jump for the goods.
As posted in the Info Outpost, Jim Callis answered a bunch of Phillies questions today
Andrew(Philly): Was it necessary to take 2 weeks off before giving us the Phillies top 10. C’mon, we’re the World Series Champions. Couldn’t you have stopped before the Nationals. How about a little hint. Who is prospect #11?
SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:14 PM ET ) Prospect No. 11 for the Phillies? LHP Antonio Bastardo.
Pete (Philly): Michael Taylor of Dominic Brown?
SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:47 PM ET ) Brown.
Zac (Flemington, NJ): Have any insight on Julian Sampson? He was supposed to have nice stuff coming out of HS, yet his k-rate was alarmingly low this year in A ball. What does he throw and how does it grade out? What kind of ceiling does he have? Thanks.
SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:41 PM ET ) I still like him. He’s more of a groundball guy than a strikeout guy right now, but he has a nice sinker. He just needs to refine his slider and changeup.
Zac (Flemington, NJ): What do you know about Edgar Garcia? The Phillies continue to promote him aggresively, and he has always been very young for his league, yet his numbers have been pedestrian. Any thoughts?
SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:24 PM ET ) Promising young arm but not real polished yet. He needs a year to catch his breath, and then he might turn into a pretty decent prospect.
I meant to post this, but I was distracted with the Rule 5 writeup and a few other things. Thanks to “Pat Burrell” for posting it and reminding me
Zac (Philadelphia): How do you grade out the Phillies farm system? It seems like it is rapidly improving with the likes of Carrasco, Marson, Donald, D’Arnaud, Drabek, Taylor, Brown, and Happ? Am I dreaming, or is the Phillies farm legit for the first time in years? Thanks.
SportsNation Jim Callis: It is improving, not yet overwhelming.
Zac (Philadelphia): Lightning Round! In five years, D’Arnaud or Marson?
SportsNation Jim Callis: Marson.
Kyle(Philadelphia): Drabek or Savery?
SportsNation Jim Callis: Drabek
From today’s chat at ESPN
dan ( philly): Big Mike Taylor or Dom Brown?
SportsNation Jim Callis: Brown.
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Dave (Philly): Carrasco or Drabek in 5 years?
SportsNation Jim Callis: Drabek.
Update, 12/4: Keith Law did a chat today
Phil (PA): Who are your top 3 Phillies prospects, relative to age and level?
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:28 PM ET ) Did I answer this above? Donald, Brown, Carrasco, probably Taylor next. I’m a little down on Marson, whose swing is going to generate a ton of groundballs.
Im going to try and post links and updates from now on when I find prospect related chats, so hopefully we can get Phillies questions answered. Today, KLaw is doing a chat at 1PM Eastern, and hes normally good for an hour and a half or so. Get your questions in, hopefully we can get a few answered, and I’ll update this post with any Phillies related nuggets.
I’m working hard this afternoon
JM (DC): Hey Kevin, a few questions about Phillies prospects. Jason Donald was hitting well in Reading before hurting his hand, are scouts starting to come around on him or is he still a utility guy? Also, what do you make of Greg Golson’s fast start? Just a 3 week flash in the pan, or is he turning it around? He’s posting the highest walk rate of his career right now…
Kevin Goldstein: I actually like Donald quite a bit offensively, but defensively, he’s got a little Jed Lowrie in him where he’s playing there, and he’s holding his own, but it’s not really what you want there glove wise. Golson is a total tool shed, and what he’s doing right now is one of the top things to keep your eye in early in the season.
You rarely hear someone called a tool shed in a positive light, but KG pulled it off. If Donald turns into a Jed Lowrie type prospect, that would be pretty ok in my book.
Hey, we also got a Bastardo reference!
Jeff N (Lawyerville FLA): Hey Kevin, what do you know about Antonio Bastardo? Hes striking out like 20 guys per 9 innings right now. Is he just a fastball pitcher abusing weak hitters?
Kevin Goldstein: Well, 34 in 22.2 innings, but still damn good!. Tony the Bastard is a little lefty is good command and a great changeup. Not a lot of projection, but could end up a bullpen piece.
KG not only breaks out a toolshed reference, he goes with the preferred “Tony the Bastard” as well. What a world we live in…
I meant to write this up yesterday, but I was sidetracked after the chat and then forgot to put it up last night. A commenter posted it, which reminded me to do it now. Yesterday in his chat, Jim Callis was asked whether he liked Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman more, and his response was…
Brian (Philly): Carlos Carrasco or Josh Outman?
Jim: Beginning to think the answer to that one should be Outman.
Now this strikes me as somewhat strange. I don’t mind someone liking Outman a bit more, but nothing in their comparative numbers this year would indicate Outman should pull ahead of Carrasco, as Carrasco was again ranked higher by BA heading into this season.
Carrasco, Age 21: 11.0 IP — 8 H — 4 BB — 14 K — 2 HR — 0.55 GO: AO
Outman, Age 23: 17.0 IP — 18 H — 8 BB — 19 K — 0 HR — 0.68 GO:AO
The only statistical advantage Outman has over Carrasco is a few more groundballs at this point, and Carlos has allowed 2 HR. But Carrasco is 2 years younger than Outman, which is a really big consideration in this debate. Outman’s fastball is good for a lefty, with plus velocity, but his control is a real work in progress, as it has been since he came out of college. Carrasco hasn’t done anything to diminish his stock this season, and Outman hasn’t really blown the doors off just yet. Both guys still have work to do, neither guy is ready for the bigs just yet, and 2-3 starts is hardly a telling sample size. Anyway, its nice to see Outman is liked in the talent evaluation circles, but I still think Carlos gets the nod, at least until we have a significant 2008 sample worth analyzing.
Today, Chris Kline at Baseball America took questions on the Phillies Top 10 list for the better part of 2 hours. I won’t be posting his comments exactly, I’ll just comment on a few of his more interesting revelations. The gist of what Chris said will be in italics, my comment will follow
Scouts are really split on Costanzo. Some love him, some think he doesn’t go all out all the time and won’t succeed at higher levels.
This doesn’t really surprise me. As I wrote up in my top 10 list, Costanzo seems to run hot and cold. He has good stretches where he shows good plate patience and some pop, but then goes cold for a month or two. The defense is there, but if he can’t hit, he’s nothing more than a backup at 3B and 1B.
Lou Marson struggled with the bat, but handled the Lakewood staff well, and should continue to progress.
Marson is a name that sometimes gets lost in the mix. If I did a top 30 list, I’d probably put him around 25. We won’t know more until he continues to climb the ladder. If he’s solid defensively, they’ll keep giving him chances, but if he can’t hit at all at the higher levels, he probably doesn’t have much of a big league future.
Still hope for Brad Harman, solid defensively, Phillies still think he’ll hit.
The organization is still high on Harman, and he’s always been young for his league. He’ll start at Clearwater in 2007, and it’s a big year for him in terms of his future.
Carrasco and Drabek are close, but Carrasco is further along and has more consistency with his fastball.
Can’t really disagree there. Drabek has more velocity, but Carrasco has better command of his fastball at this point, and that comes with 2 more years in pro ball than Drabek. He also commented that Drabek seemed to take to instruction well in the FIL, which is a good sign.
James Happ has added a few MPH to his fastball, which has evelated his stock a bit. Still needs to sharpen his slider/curve.
This was one of the best revelations in the chat. Happ’s fastball was in the 88-90 range before this season and through much of 2006, but if he is in fact pitching more in the 90-92 range, hitting 93, it definitely improves his chances of future success. Kline likes his changeup quite a bit already, and says his curve/slider will develop more as he throws it more. Great news on Happ.
Cardenas will be moved from SS to 2B and maybe eventually to the OF. He’ll play 2B at Lakewood with Donald at SS.
Not surprising, though I’d have liked to see him tried at 3B. Scouts apparently don’t feel he has the arm for 3B, which means he’s probably going to either end up at 2B or LF.
Baez still has promise as a defensive 3B, but he’s only hit in Instructional League and hasn’t been able to translate it to full season ball. Jim Ed Warden has the best chance to stick out of the Rule 5 guys.
Baez was ranked 5 last year and really saw his stock drop this year. He was atrocious at the plate at Lakewood, but can still play defensively. 2007 is an important year in terms of figuring out what’s there. Warden’s fastball/changeup combo should help him, and Kline thinks he’s got a good chance of sticking. See my piece on Warden for a full writeup of his offerings.
D’Arby Myers has 5 tool potential and looks like a potential star in CF. 2007 is a make or break year for Golson
Right on. I’m disappointed Golson made the top 10 over him, but if he has a strong 2007, he should move into the top 10, and possibly even the top 5. Likely will start at Lakewood, Golson likely to start back at Clearwater.
Jason Jaramillo really struggled defensively and scouts in the Arizona Fall League rated his defensive ability much lower than in the past.
This was the one thing in the chat I really couldn’t figure out. Jaramillo was always thought of as a defense first guy who wouldn’t hit much at the big league level, but Kline seemed to say the opposite here. Maybe he just wasn’t focused in Arizona? Maybe he got some bad info? Not sure what to make of that.
That about sums it up. If you have anything to add, please do so in the comments section.
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