Every year around the start of the draft the articles start coming out about how the Phillies are failing in every part of their draft. This year the rallying cry has been the lack of pitchers developed by the Phillies and why they should take a college pitcher early to help the big league club. In general the fanbases clamor for college players because they have a quicker impact on the major league club.

Today David Murphy wrote an article about the Cardinals and how they have had college heavy drafts, and hinted that maybe the Phillies should follow that model. My first instinct was that this is a flawed argument and that the differences between the Cardinals and Phillies doesn’t have to do with whether it is HS or college players drafted, but more what are all of the factors that go into it. So lets look at some Cardinals and Phillies drafts head to head.

2006:
Top Picks: Adam Ottavino (Cardinals-30), Kyle Drabek (Phillies-18)
Combined WAR: .1 (Phillies) 28.1 (Cardinals)
Notable Phillies Picks: Drew Carpenter, Jason Donald, Quintin Berry, Domonic Brown
Notable Cardinals Picks: Jon Jay, Allen Craig, Luke Gregerson, Chris Perez, David Carpenter Continue reading Phillies and Cardinals Drafting over the Years →

As a baseball purist, I admittedly dont look as deep into the metrics as perhaps I should. I must admit however that the concept of “Game Score” for starting pitchers has struck my fancy in measuring the quality of performance on a particular night for a particular pitcher.  If you look at the average Game Score of a particular starter, you get a very good idea of what their body of work looks like over the course of a season.  In essence, game score combines durability, control and overall effectiveness to come up with a number to put on a particular outing.

Bill James developed Game Score and the math goes like this:  Start with 50.  Add one point for each out recorded (so three points for each IP); add two points for  each full IP after the fourth; add one point for each strikeout; subtract two points for each hit allowed; subtract four points for each ER allowed; subtract two points for each unearned run allowed; subtract one point for each walk. In essence, Game Score takes the concept of a quality start and expands on it, factoring in control and hittability. The highest Game Score in history went to Kerry Wood who achieved a Game Score of 105 on 5/6/98. He struck out 20, allowing just one hit and didn’t walk a batter.

Game Score allows you to assess a degree of quality on a particular start and extrapolate from there.   Now, looking at Phillies minor leaguers….At the AAA level, the highest Game Score achieved this year was Greg Smith, back on April 17th, who achieved a Game Score of 78.  The lowest Game Score was “achieved” by Brad Lincoln who received a 17 for a miserable start just a few days ago on 5/28/14.  In a system which would categorize a “quality start” at a 50, IronPigs average Game Scores are as follows (Min 4 starts): Pettibone 52, Smith 52, Enright 50; Buchanan 49, O’Sullivan 47n and Lincoln 41. Continue reading Game Score →

The attention this week should go to the relief pitchers who put on quite a show during the time period of May 22-28.  Tyler Knigge is making people notice once again, while Kenny Giles simply keeps doing what he does.  Colton Murray, who spent a bit of time at High A before promotion, has had an outstanding start for Reading…Samuel Hiciano is taking the attention away from the other, higher ranked prospects in the Lakewood OF simply by performance…Cameron Rupp has been really struggling since his return from the oblique injury, while Brian Pointer remains consistently on the Not Hot list….I intend not to waste another word discussing Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez.

Hot Hitters: (MIN 13 AB’s): KC Serna (.400, 7R HR 4RBI, AB); Samuel Hiciano (.370, 2HR 4RBI); Deivi Gruillon (.357); Everett Williams (.357, 4RBI); Cameron Perkins (.345, 3R, HR, 6RBI); Ronny Cedeno (.341, 5RBI); JP Crawford (.333, 3R, 3RBI, SB); Tyler Henson (.333)

Not Hot Hitters:Malquin Canelo (.000, 0-13); Brian Pointer (.071); Andrew Knapp (.118); Cameron Rupp (.136); Addison Maruszak (.143); Nick Ferdinand (.143);  Roman Quinn (.150); Carlos Alonson (.154) Chris Serritella (.167); CHris Swauger (.176);Albert Cartwright (.179) Continue reading Hot or Not →

Another week with a winning record for Lehigh Valley who went 4-3 on the week, including a sweep of a doubleheader in Norfolk on Tuesday.  The ‘Pigs are now 28-24 and tied for second place in the Northern Division of the International League, just 0.5 games behind division leading Syracuse.  Lehigh Valley left for a nine game, 8 day road trip after last Sundays game that takes them to Norfolk and Durham. The ‘Pigs, at 17-10, have the second best record in the IL in May.

‘Pigs Prospects:Cameron Rupp has really struggled with the bat since returning from his oblique injury and is hitting just .161 since his return(31 AB’s).  He continues to play quite well defensively with a caught stealing rate at over 30%.

Tyson Gillies after starting very slowly, has improved slightly and now sits at .226/.288/.302 in 124 AB’s with Lehigh Valley this year.  His strikeout rate is still a high 26% and Gillies has stolen just 3/5 bases this year.  He does appear to be playing smarter over the last couple of weeks, trying to use his speed to bunt for a base hit which is occasionally very nice to see.  Over his last 10 games Gillies is right at the Mendoza line, hitting .200.

Phillippe Aumont receives kudos for having a solid week this week after a very poor week last week.  Over his last 3 games, Aumont has thrown 5.1 shutout innings, allowing 3 hits, 2 walks and striking out 5.  On the year, Aumont is now 1-1 with a 4.30ERA and 1.65 WHIP.  Opponents are hitting just .211 against him, but that is counter balanced by the fact that he has walked an average of a hitter an inning.  In 9 May appearances spanning 13.1 innings, Aumont has walked 11. Continue reading Lehigh Valley Weekly Report →

This season Mark Perlman-Price (Broadcast Assistant for the IronPigs) and Michael Vetola (Radio Broadcaster for the Fightin Phils) have teamed up for a Phillies minor league podcast.  They have interviewed players and coaches as well as had on various beat writers and  broadcasters associated with the major and minor league teams.  In their latest episode they brought me on to talk about Reading park factors, and how it appears from the statistical side, from observation, and how it affects players and managers.

You can download any episode here https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-aphilliated-podcast/id854317012?mt=2

And while we are talking podcasts, Jay Floyd of Phoulballz puts out the PhoulBallz podcast which you can find here https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/phoulballz-podcast-jay-tug/id534600778?mt=2

Lehigh Valley

Phillippe Aumont, 25, Acquired from Seattle in 2010; 14 games; 0-1 with a 5.60ERA; 17.2IP 15H 19BB 18K; 0.76GO/AO; .246 opp. avg; 1.92WHIP; 9.7BB/9.2K per nine; .200 vs. LHH; .278 vs. RHH; .400 with RISP.  Ten walks per nine innings and getting lit up with RISP.  Not much more to say.

Justin DeFratus, 26, Phils 11th round pick in 2007; 14 games, 0-0 with a 4.20ERA; 3 saves; 15IP 17H 3BB 12K; 1.64 GO/AO; .309 opp. avg; 1.33WHIP; 1.8BB/7.2K per nine; .348 vs. LHH, .281 vs. RHH, .316 with RISP.  DeFratus is still trying to figure it out.  He has been extremely hittable this year and far less overpowering than in years past.

Kenny Giles, 23;Phils 7th round pick in 2011;  18 games between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 2-0 with a 1.29ERA; 8 saves; 21IP 11H 10BB 31K; 0.71GO/AO; .155 opp. avg; 1.00WHIP; 4.3BB/13.3K per nine;  These are simply overwhelmingly good stats.  The only brief moment of pause is a slightly elevated walk rate, but Giles has been dominant. Continue reading Around the System–Relief Pitchers →

There has been a rash of pitching injuries across baseball from every level from the majors through the minors and amatuer ranks.  For the most part the focus has been on Tommy John injuries, but the Phillies have had larger problems with injuries to all parts of pitchers bodies.  For the most part I am going to focus on the past year and a half, but I will also pull in pitchers who have affected the last few years who were injured in previous seasons.

Cliff Lee – LHP – Age: 35
Pitches: Fastball, Curveball, Changeup, Cutter
Injury: Left Elbow Strain
Background: Lee pitched with elbow soreness for over a month.  The Phillies have opted for rest, fastball velocity down to start the year.

Jonathan Pettibone – RHP – Age: 22
Pitches: Fastball, Changeup, Slider
Injury: Torn Labrum
Background:  Pettibone was injured late in 2013 and has opted for rest over surgery. Continue reading Trying to Find Patterns in Phillies Pitching Injuries →

A look back at the time period of May 15-21…Looks like our #1 Not Hot Starter, David Buchanan, may be on his way to Philly to replace Cliff Lee in the rotation…I have to admit, Andrew Knapp is starting to worry me…With Willians Astudillo starting to catch more regularly, the fact that he continues to scald the ball becomes more intriguing…The transition to AAA for Kenny Giles seems to have been a smooth one from his early numbers…Just when some thought Justin DeFratus was fixed, he ends up taking a step backwards….The Reading bullpen was outstanding this week (Knigge, Murray, O’Sullivan, Ogando)

Hot Hitters: Min 12 AB’s: Willians Astudillo (.476, 8RBI); Albert Cartwright (.400, 9R, HR 2RBI, SB); Art Charles (.400, 5R); Anthony Phillips (.385); Samuel Hiciano (.375); Andrew Pullin (.364, 5R 1HR 5RBI); Wilmer Oberto (.350, 4R 3RBI); Ronny Cedeno (.333); Jiandido Tromp (.333, 4R 4RBI); Honorable Mention: Susdorf

Not Hot Hitters: Chris Serritella (.067);  Nick Ferdinand (.067); Andrew Knapp (.148); Gabrial Lino (.167); Aaron Altherr (.167); Carlos Alonso (.167); Tyler Henson (.174); Malquin Canelo (.188); Mitch Walding (.190) Continue reading Hot or Not →