per rotoworld, the Phillies have acquired Kyle Lohse for Matt Maloney. First reaction is, okay, I’m fine with it, but maybe I’m still underrating Maloney a bit. I gave Maloney a B in the prospect grades, saying this

Maloney, Matt, LHP (age 23) Grade = B

On paper, Maloney should be an A++. He put up a sparking 2.03 ERA in 168.2 IP in 2006, allowed only 120 hits and struck out 180 batters, en route to helping lead the Blueclaws to the SAL title. However, there are some problems, in my view. First, he was 22 the entire year, on the high end of the prospect spectrum. College pitchers should dominate at low A, and Maloney did. The second problem, which ties in with the third, is his walk rate. He walked 73 in the 168.2 IP, which is a lot of walks. This ties in with the third problem, his mediocre stuff. He has a deceptive delivery (but it looks max effort to me, which could be a problem), and he relies on his slow curveball to get outs. The problem is, at higher levels, batters are less likely to swing at breaking balls out of the zone. Most guys with fringe stuff are pinpoint control guys, like Kevin Slowey and Jeremy Sowers, and scouts even question their success at higher levels. For a guy with an 86-89 MPH fastball, even for a lefty, I think he’s going to need to really refine his control at the higher levels, or he’s going to hit a wall quickly. Because he clearly didn’t belong in the SAL, we’ll have to see how he does against better competition. I’m not writing him off, though my writeup seems harsh, but I want to see him dominate (or at least pitch well) at higher levels against more advanced hitters. If his control improves, so will his grade.

Ceiling: Because of the lack of a high quality fastball or above average stuff, his ceiling is probably as a 4th/5th starter.

Floor: Brian Mazone without the steroids?

Conclusion: Finesse pitchers are really tough to figure out and project. If his control improves, he’s got a much better shot to reach his ceiling. If it doesn’t improve, he looks more like a AAAA pitcher, or maybe a possible reliever down the road. His 2007 should land him in Reading, where he’ll be the proper age for his level, and will be facing much more advanced prospects. If he repeats his numbers from 2006, he’ll be a legit prospect, and the ceiling might even improve.

Basically, the problem I have with Maloney is that I don’t think he’s anything more than a 5th starter in the majors. None of his pitches are plus, he doesn’t have a lot of velocity, and that means he’s going to have to rely on his control/command to be effective. Prior to the last 6 weeks or so, his control/command hasn’t been good, and wasn’t particularly great last year. It’s one thing to trick 19 and 20 year old hitters in Low A, it’s another thing to fool major league veterans. Maloney is hittable, and that’s at AA, so he’d have certainly been hittable in the majors. This is the benefit of stockpiling arms in the system though, as he’s turned into a major league pitcher at a time when we desperately need pitching. If I were grading Maloney now, I’d probably either leave him at a B or drop him to a B-, but the difference isn’t overwhelming.

So that brings us to Lohse. I don’t have a ton of good things to say about him. None of his peripherals are great, but he is capable of delivering a gem every time out. The sad thing is, he’s also capable of delivering a complete clunker. Maybe the Phillies think Duuuuubee can work some magic with him, and catch lightning in a bottle for 2 months.

Because of Maloney’s limited upside, I don’t mind this deal. The time to win is now, so go for it. Maloney wasn’t an elite prospect, he might pitch well, but in Great American Ball Park, I’ll bet against it.

For everything I’ve ever written about Maloney, click here.

EDIT

Someone was kind enough to run the splits on Lohse. When pitching against NL teams this season, his numbers look like this

112.7 IP
6-6
3.59 ERA
1.23 WHIP
69 K; 5.52 K/9
24 BB; 1.92 BB/9
2.88 K/BB
11 HR; 0.88 HR/9

That looks pretty decent to me.

EDIT 2

Keith Law weighs in

The Phillies have now made two small but useful additions to their belated playoff push. Kyle Lohse is a capable fifth starter, a substantial improvement over J.D. Durbin and Adam Eaton, and an improvement over Kyle Kendrick once reality catches up with him. Lohse is a classic four-pitch mix guy who has never really had the put-away pitch that would elevate him out of fifth starterdom; his fastball is a bit too true and he’s prone to the longball, which won’t get any better for him with the move to Philly. The cost was minimal, reliever Matt Maloney, who projects as an 11th/12th man in the big leagues. Maloney is a lefty whose breaking ball isn’t good enough to make him a lefty-killer. Given Reds GM Wayne Krivsky‘s reliever fetish, offering Maloney was a good gambit for the Phils.

– ESPN.com

Sounds good.

I know the whole waiver/options thing can get confusing. Basically, once a player is placed on waivers and clears, he has cleared for the entire waiver period. For example, the Phillies placed Durbin on waivers after they claimed him, and he went unclaimed, thus, he “cleared” waivers. After a player clears waivers, he can be optioned up and down as many times as the team wants until the next waiver period. The current waiver period stretches from May 1 to July 31 at 4PM. The ambiguity here is, Durbin was placed on waivers before the May 1 start of the new period, so he’d have to clear again, which means they might not be able to send him down without getting claimed. Condrey, however, has been waived and cleared during this period, so he could be sent down.

That’s the rule, as I’ve read it in numerous places.

A hot topic of late is Michael Bourn and what he could bring to the Phillies via trade. So the question is, what type of player should the Phillies target for Bourn? Specific names? If they don’t get player X, is it better to keep him, or is he surplus goods at this point? I’d like YOUR opinion on the matter.

For White Sox 2B Tad Iguchi. No complaints here. Dubee is a C+ prospect at this point, and isn’t close to being a big league contributor, and hopefully this keeps Nunez out of the every day lineup.

For White Sox fans who might find this blog via Google, here’s the report I wrote on Dubee this winter.

I rated Dubee a C at the time, and as I said, I’d probably rate him a C+ prospect at this point.

Iguchi’s contract has this clause, per Cots

contract includes clause requiring White Sox to sign Iguchi to an extension by sometime in 2007, or release him (effectively granting Iguchi free agency after three years of ML service)

So, I don’t really know if that will still apply. I can see him being resigned as a backup, but I don’t know if he’d be interested.

Against the Braves, nothing went right as the Lynx slid further and further into last place, the team once again reverting back to poor pitching and hitting. They were simply out of games early against the Richmond Braves and once again were swept in a double header. Richmond got off to a very hot start this season and have continued to hold first place all season. They’re hot start can be attributed to a very good pitching staff and the combination of Braves pitching and Ottawa hitting didn’t bode well for Ottawa. The first three games in Richmond were awful, really bad and awful. The fourth was closer but again another loss. J.A. Happ was awful, Bubba Nelson gave up seven runs, closer Brian Sanches had to start the second game of a double header, (he got hit but a booted inning ending double play grounder didn’t help), and Fabio Castro went 4.1 solid innings but lost and the Lynx didn’t hit, (again), four runs in four games.

Continue reading Ottawa Lynx Week Sixteen(Part Two-Richmond) →

As there are eleven games in week sixteen, I have split up the report this week. Part two tomorrow.

Six games-four days and two double headers in three days isn’t something which is likely to help a team struggling as badly as the Ottawa Lynx are and have been since May. It didn’t. To further complicate things for the Lynx and play potential havoc with the starters, Ottawa was hit with heavy rains all day Friday which let up only a couple of hours before the scheduled start. Due to the double headers, there was a real danger that the pitching staff would further collapse as John Russell might have little option but to either leave his starters in too long to save the bullpen, or be forced to overuse the bullpen due to non quality starts.

Continue reading Ottawa Lynx Week Sixteen, (Part One-Rochester) →

The Phils road trip ended with the Phils mired at .500 (52-52), in 5th place and 8 games out of first in the SOuthern division.  Still among the league leaders are Matt Maloney who is 8th in wins(9), 1st in innings (118.2), and 4th in strikeouts (108).  Chris Key is climbing up the leader board now with 13 saves ranking 7th.  In the hitting categories, Greg Jacobs is 2nd in hits (110), 5th in doubles (27), 3rd in homers (16), 2nd in RBI’s (65) and 6th in average (.316).  Mike Costanzo is 3rd in runs (67), 2nd in homers (18), 10th in RBI’s (55), and 2nd in strikeouts (123). Jason Hill continues to lead the league in doubles with 30. Jesus Merchan leads the league in batting average at .333 and Javon Moran is 3rd in steals with 24. Continue reading Reading Report →

Ok, here it is. We’ve debated this in other posts, let’s have the final debate here and not carry it into other discussions. I went back and looked at every draft from 1990 to 2004, 15 years worth of drafts, to evaluate who was the “best” and “worst” at drafting pitching over that period. I looked at only the first round (and supplemental first round), because that seemed to be the focus of Conlin’s claims. I didn’t include 2005-2007, because it’s still way too early to know which of those guys is going to pan out/get injured/recover from injury. I didn’t go past 1990 for the sake of time, but we can always re-visit that at some point. So, here are the guys, broken down by team, aligned by division. Note, expansion teams will have a few less entries because of fewer drafts.

Continue reading Track record for drafting pitching →

In his chat on ESPN.com today, he said this

Danny (Philly): Brandon Workman-Phillies or Texas?

Jim Callis: (2:51 PM ET ) The Phillies seem to be lying in the weeds on a number of players, so this could be a case where Workman is going to get over slot but they’re waiting to announce the deal.

You’d have to think the guys we’re “laying in the weeds on” would be Workman, Sampson and Moncrief. Hopefully 2 of the 3 get finished before the deadline.

In case you haven’t read Bill1Chair’s latest nugget of goodness, you can find it here. As Bill often tends to do, he exaggerates and sensationalizes things to try and sound like a voice of authority, when in reality, he really provides very few facts and even less context. Here is the money excerpt from his latest piece, where he basically says taking Kyle Drabek was a mistake;

Drabek became the latest first-round draft pick to join an ill-starred list of can’t-miss righthanders who became damaged goods early in their Phillies careers and never amounted to much.

The list includes Roy Thomas (1971, No. 6 pick overall), Brad Brink (1986, No. 7 overall), Tyler Green (1991, No. 10 overall) and, now, Drabek (2006, No. 18 overall.) It turned out Thomas and Brink were injured before their signings. Green had been shut down in both high school and college. I am tempted to add Brett Myers (1999, No. 12 overall) to the list, but this was the first arm injury of his career and the jury is still out on the long-term implications of history’s longest-running shoulder “strain.” Lefthander Cole Hamels (2002, No. 17 overall) had back issues in the minors, but does a rigorous daily program that has kept him healthy as a major leaguer.

Bill attempts to paint the Phillies as incompetent because we’ve drafted 3 (4 if you count Drabek) guys who had major arm trouble in the low minors, over a 35 year time period. That’s right….4 guys in 35 years, considering the position and the unstable nature of amateur talent, and Bill is convinced the Phillies do no leg work on their draft picks. He somehow tries to sneak Brett Myers into the conversation, even though Myers hasn’t been hurt at all up until this year. Also, if you notice, he’s including Drabek in the same sentence that concludes with “never amounted to much”…do you think he knows that the recovery rate from TJ is high? Wanna see an organization that can’t draft pitching? Check out Pittsburgh over the last 10 years. Jon Van Benschoten, Sean Burnett, Brad Lincoln and Bryan Bullington were all first round picks who would up with major arm problems requiring surgery, and all were picked within a 4-5 year span.

This type of irresponsible journalism isn’t new, especially from Conlin. Every once in a while he spins a good yarn about the incompetence of the Phillies ownership group, but many times, like this instance, he’s way off base. I’d recommend sending him an e-mail, his address is right at the bottom of the article above. Just a warning, you may get a snappy return that does or does not mention his timeshare in the Dominican Republic.