Category Archives: 01. Site Features

The Phillies are interested in re-acquiring Travis D’Arnaud

Other Stuff

I thought this was an interesting little nugget included in Bob Elliot’s (Toronto Sun) column.

The Phillies have discussed possible ways on how to re-acquire catcher Travis D’Araund from the Jays. Good luck.

D’Arnaud is arguably the best prospect we’ve traded in the last 3 seasons. He appears to have star potential behind the plate if he can remain healthy. He was excellent in AA and is close to big league ready. The Jays have another good young catcher already in the majors in JP Arencibia, so they would be dealing from a position of strength, and they’d obviously ask for a ton in return. I’m sure nothing would happen on this, but its fun to ponder during the long cold winter.

What to expect in 2012, Sebastian Valle

2012 Expectations, Valle, Sebastian

I was thinking about the next player to write up, and Valle seemed like a great case. Always young for each league he’s played in, Valle had his best season in 2011 and performed very well in the pitcher friendly Florida State League, posting a line of .284/.312/.394, and that line may have been higher if he hadn’t worn down a bit in the hot summer sun over the last 6 weeks or so. Early in his career, Valle was considered an offensive first prospect whose future behind the dish was a bit uncertain. Over the last 2 seasons however, his athleticism and instincts have helped him improve tremendously defensively, and he now looks like no worse than an average defensive catcher with significant upside. He has a strong arm, and though he is still adding polish to his defensive game, all the tools are there. The question now is what is his offensive upside? Here is his career ledger

(click here to open in new tab)

32-33% caught stealing is solid enough, he cut down on his errors significantly, and the last piece is refining his ability to block pitches in the dirt. Offensively, his walk rate tanked and his K rate went up a tad, which means part of his batting average was definitely BABIP induced luck. Its important to remember the threshold for catchers in baseball. The average three slash line for all major league catchers in 2011 in the major leagues was .245/.313/.389. That’s putrid, obviously, and you only have to scan major league rosters to find guys who, if they played another position, would have been out of baseball years ago because they can’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag. Valle could struggle in AA, especially against quality offspeed stuff. The Phillies are probably anticipating this, and are fine with this, as long as he plays solid defense, which is going to be a requirement for him making it to the big leagues and contributing.

So, what do you expect from Valle in 2012 at Reading?

Coaching Announcements

Other Stuff

Just a short note that the Phillies have announced that the entire Lehigh Valley coaching staff will return next year. This includes Manager Ryne Sandberg, Pitching Coach Rod Nichols and Hitting Coach, Sal Rende.

Former Lehigh Valley All Star first baseman Andy Tracy will begin his mangerial career this season taking over the reigns of the Short Season Williamsport Crosscutters.

What to expect in 2012: Jon Pettibone

2012 Expectations, Pettibone, Jon

In part 1 of this series, we took a look at what to expect from Trevor May in 2012, and today we’ll move on to RHP Jon Pettibone. Pettibone has been a bit of an enigma since signing in 2008. He was not highly touted by scouts entering the draft and the report indicated he may be better off honing his game in college and then re-entering the draft. After a 1 inning stint in 2008, he pitched just 35 innings in 2009 before logging a full season in both 2010 and 2011, moving one level at a time. His raw numbers have improved across the board, especially in 2011, and his K rate increase is the most notable, though its still below average. More importantly, the scouting reports on Pettibone have greatly improved. His fastball is now consistently 90-94, up from the 88-92 range where he was when drafted. Not only has the velocity improved, his command to both sides of the plate with the pitch has also improved, and his command in general is possibly the best of any Phillies starting pitching prospect. His secondary pitches are still developing, but both his changeup and breaking ball made strides in 2011. His career work to date (click to enlarge)

Like Trevor May, he will move to Reading in 2012. As we’ve documented a number of times, the jump from A+ to AA is a big one, especially in the Phillies system where you go from a pitcher friendly league in the FSL to the more offensive neutral Eastern League, but Reading’s home park plays as a decisive hitter’s environment, making the adjustments all the more crucial. So, what do you expect from Pettibone in 2012, and how have your expectations and impressions of him changed in the last 12 months?

What to expect in 2012: Trevor May

2012 Expectations

Since things are a bit slow, I figured we would try something new. Every few days, I’m going to start a new post in what will be a series looking at a bunch of our key prospects heading in to 2012, and what we think, both individually and as a group, the players will do. We’ll discuss where they are likely to start the season, things they need to work on, and what expectations are for each guy in the new season. Keep these posts on point, and if you want to ramble on about something random, use the most recent open discussion post.

That said, we’ll start with RHP Trevor May. Through prospect graduations and trades, and also his strong bouneback season, May is now the Phillies top prospect heading in to 2012. A lot is expected of him, and the jump to AA will be a big test. When he moved up to Clearwater the first time, he struggled mightily and needed a tune-up back at Lakewood. The move to AA from A+ is maybe the sharpest in the minors (you could argue short season to Low A) in terms of the quality of competition, and the learning curve can be steep. Hitters are more experienced and disciplined, pitchers have better command, and it helps to separate the men from the boys. May’s career grid looks like this (click to enlarge)

It won’t come as a surprise to you, but I think the biggest key for May in 2012 is fastball command. He can get away with mistakes against inexperienced A ball hitters, especially up in the zone, but more disciplined hitters in AA will lay off that pitch up and out of the zone. If May pounds the bottom half of the zone with his fastball and can set up his curve, he’ll be fine. If he doesn’t throw strikes, the results could be ugly. 2012 is a big year for him. He made stride with his command in 2011, and he needs to build on it in 2012.

Whats your take? How do you think he will fare in Reading?

Phillies Minor League Free Agents

Other Stuff

Today Baseball America published the list of minor league free agents. The article did a pretty good job of explaining exactly what a 6 year free agent is, so check it out here. Here are the free agents from the Phillies organization:

Philadelphia Phillies (31)
RHP: Brian Bass (AAA), Eddie Bonine (AAA), Nate Bump (AAA), Dave Bush (AAA), Joe Esposito (AA)
LHP: Ryan Edell (AAA), Ryan Feierabend (AAA), Derrick Loop (AA), Tommy Palica (Hi A), Juan Perez (AAA), Les Walrond (AA)
C: Tim Kennelly (AA), Torre Langley (Hi A), Jeff Lanning (Lo A)
1B: Tagg Bozied (AAA), Jeff Larish (AAA)
2B: Josh Barfield (AAA), Ozzie Chavez (AA), Paco Figueroa (AA), Kevin Frandsen (AAA), Fidel Hernandez (AA), Steve Singleton (AA)
OF: Brent Clevlen (AA), Terry Evans (AA), Chris Frey (AA), Cyle Hankerd (Hi A), Chris Lubanski (AA), Scott Podsednik (AAA), Mike Spidale (AA), Rich Thompson (AAA), Delwyn Young (AAA)

I expected to see Brandon Moss, Derrick Mitchell, John Suomi, and Tuffy Gosewich listed so I’m assuming they have resigned with the Phillies which means they never hit the free agent market but that’s just speculation on my part.

Additionally, Dane Sardinha was previously announced as a free agent and the Phillies have reportedly re-signed 40-man roster cast-offs Pete Orr and Drew Naylor to minor league deals.

Anyone on the list who you think needs to be back next year?

Baseball America’s Phillies Top 10 list

Top Prospect Lists

The list is free for all to read here. The scouting reports are subscriber only content, so don’t copy/paste. I’ll summarize in one sentence the reports and I’ll provide my own thoughts on the list after the jump.

01. Trevor May, RHP – Raw stuff still good, added a slider in 2011, now a 4 pitch guy, repeating his delivery better (improved command/control)
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP – Velo down, changeup/curveball both very good considering his age/experience
03. Sebastian Valle, C – Good athlete, improving defense
04. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP – Velo is up (now 90-94 touching 95) and has taken to the 2 seam fastball
05. Phillippe Aumont, RHP – Command still an issue, and apparently so is his attitude (first time I’ve heard that)
06. Freddy Galvis, SS – You’ve heard it all before, great glove, weak stick
07. Justin De Fratus, RHP – Slider has improved
08. Brody Colvin, RHP – Questions about his delivery/mechanics leading to health issues
09. Jiwan James, OF – Superb defender, better hitter lefthanded, may scrap switch hitting soon
10. Maikel Franco, 3B – Unconventional swing but great bat speed, not a good athlete but could stay at 3B or move to C

My immediate reaction below

Continue reading Baseball America’s Phillies Top 10 list →

Open Discussion: 40 man roster decisions

Other Stuff

I wanted to throw this one out there. The rules under the CBA state that college players must be protected after 4 seasons (anyone age 19 and older when drafted) and high school kids 5 years after they are drafted. By my quick estimation, that would mean all high school kids taken in the 2007 draft have to be protected, and all college kids from the 2008 draft have to go on the 40 man roster. Which guys fall under those classifications?

Tyson Gillies (25th round, 2006)
Travis Mattair (2nd round, 2007)
Phillippe Aumont (1st round, 2007)
Jiwan James (22nd round, 2007)
Sebastian Valle (FA, 2007)
Colby Shreve (6th round, 2008)
Cody Overbeck (9th round, 2008)
BJ Rosenberg (13th round, 2008)
Tyler Cloyd (18th round, 2008)

Did I miss anyone?

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that a bunch of these guys are currently working it in the Arizona Fall League. The league is a double edged sword, allowing the parent club to get one last look to determine if the prospect deserves a 40 man spot, but it also gives high profile looks to other teams who may want to snatch a guy up in the Rule 5 draft come December.

Phillies post-mortem…get it out of your system

Phillies Chatter

Hey everyone. I have a bunch of big plans for the site over the next few months. Today is a rough day, as we try to sort through the rubble and figure out what went wrong. I think I already figured it out, and I wrote about it before Game 5 even happened over at my other site. But it’s going to take some time to decompress. I’m just going to ask that you decompress here in this post and not everywhere else on the site. You can talk about which players should go, which should come in, etc etc. But I am going to do a few updates per week on the AFL, I’m working on some other pieces as well, and then we’ll start the Reader Top 30. I’d prefer to keep all of the hand ringing, wallowing, and bitching in one place. So this is the place. Bookmark it if you need to. But I’m going to eradicate unrelated comments in other posts that belong here. A disappointing season, but still a bright future ahead. So get it all out of your system now and let’s move on in a little while.

Thanks

BA Top 20: Phillies get hosed on the Eastern League list

Top Prospect Lists

Okay, “hosed” was used for effect, but I am a bit surprised the R-Phillies didn’t sneak at least one guy on to the list. Derrick Mitchell, Austin Hyatt, and Matt Rizzotti all put up statistically worthy campaigns, but all 3 are a tad advanced in terms of age. Hyatt’s 2nd half maybe should have warranted consideration, as he posted a 62/15 K to BB rate in 55 innings post-all star break and allowed just 4 home runs. He is 25 though and lacks projection, which is where BA focuses these lists. That said, I think there’s a decent chance he ends up with a more productive major league career than a number of guys who did make the list. The other options that might have made it were Justin De Fratus and Phillippe Aumont, but both guys were promoted to LHV and probably didn’t have enough innings to merit consideration, especially because both are relief prospects. Freddy Galvis, a long time favorite of BA, also did not make the list after putting up the best offensive numbers of his career (by a wide margin)

I’m working on a revamp of my “statistical toy” that I talked about a few months ago, blending it with what I used for the SONAR scores a few years ago to try and create something “better” and more valuable, and when I do this, I will run the numbers for each league and put together Top 20 lists of my own, which will be fun to compare with the lists put up by BA. Look for that later.