Not that this is a surprise, but this is a blog, I try to keep up with current events, and this morning The Inquirer ran an article saying Bourn has basically made the squad, and could actually see some spot starts at times, as opposed to just a late inning replacement. While I would not want him taking AB’s away from Burrell in the first 8 innings of a game, having him start a game or two a week in center instead of Rowand might not be a bad idea, and Rowand at least gives you some pop off the bench as a pinch hitter. Both Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia will start the season on the DL, which means Zach Segovia will remain with the team. Should Garcia need to miss his first start on either April 7th or 8th, then Segovia will probably be the guy. Once Garcia returns, Zach might shift to the pen until Jon Lieber returns.

All in all, it was a spring with some positives and negatives. James Happ’s numbers looked bad, but in the innings I saw him pitch, the stuff looked good. He was probably nervous more than anything, and a bit of time in AAA can’t hurt him, though I do wonder if he might not be more valuable pitching in the big league pen this year, and then going back to starting next year. Joe Bisenius got some quality work in, but he still needs to refine his control a bit more. Jason Jaramillo probably opened some eyes and showed he might be closer to the bigs than was expected when spring training started. On the flip side, Jim Ed Warden was a disappointment, and my first “bad guess” of 2007. Fabio Castro looked rough, and will probably need some time in the minors to get himself back on track. The Alfredo Simon experiment was brutal, and waiver signing Anderson Garcia didn’t look too great either. Greg Dobbs, though no longer a prospect, had a great spring, and could be a 5 year younger version of Chris Coste. That will just depend on how focused he remains and how hard he continues to work. Speaking of Coste, a rough spring for him, both hitting and healthwise. He could get the last spot on the 25 man roster, at least until Lieber comes back, or he might find himself on another team in a week. We’ll see.

In a vote that surprised me a bit, 19 of you that voted, 41%, said that we should trade Aaron Rowand and make Michael Bourn the everyday centerfielder. Obviously, some of you are very confident in his ability right now, or Michael had some free time in the clubhouse and just kept voting over and over again. Either way, here’s how the votes have lined up so far:

46 votes

19: Trade Rowand, make Bourn the starter
11: Make him the 4th/5th OF
11: Send him to Ottawa
5: Trade him for a young reliever

If you haven’t voted yet, please do so, and feel free to leave your comments either here or in yesterday’s post. We’ve had some good discussions here in the last week or so, and I’m hoping as the season progresses we get even more interaction.

The Phillies conclude their preseason with two games against Boston in Philadelphia tonight and tomorrow. Jon Lieber didn’t make the trip north, which means Zach Segovia will probably be on the team, even if only briefly, unless the Phillies make a trade. Right now, the Phillies 25 man roster looks like this;

C – Barajas
1B – Howard
2B – Utley
3B – Helms
SS – Rollins
LF – Burrell
CF – Rowand
RF – Victorino
C – Ruiz
INF – Nunez
INF – Dobbs
OF – Bourn
OF – Werth

SP – Myers
SP – Hamels
SP – Garcia
SP – Eaton
SP – Moyer

CL – Gordon
SU – Madson
RP – Geary
RP – Smith
RP – Alfonseca
RP – Condrey
RP – Lieber

If Lieber starts on the DL, that probably means that Segovia gets his spot, unless the Phillies go with Coste on the bench (when healthy) and only use 11 pitchers. When Lieber returns, one of them will have to go. Condrey is out of options, so if he’s sent down, he must clear waivers. If the Phillies trade for Rosario or another reliever, Condrey might also be let go. On the bench, Dobbs seems like the most expendable of the group, but he also had the best spring, and it’s tough to see him losing his job to Coste, especially since he can play both INF and OF.

I wouldn’t put a deal past Gillick at this point. If you remember back to last season at this time, we still had Rob Tejeda, who was traded at the 11th hour to Texas for Dave Dellucci. Should be interesting to see what happens. At this point, it looks like Bourn is going to be the only prospect to make the team out of camp, but Joe Bisenius is probably still the best bet to be the first prospect called up this season, barring an emergency start from either Happ or Segovia.

Also, one quick mention. I’m going to be writing all of the affiliate reports (except the VSL/DSL) for the start of the season, since I haven’t really had time to get everything coordinated, but as the season progresses, I should be able to integrate others into the mix. I want to try and create a uniform method for my madness before opening it up to everyone else. I’ve got big plans for this blog, but I need to make sure everything is running smoothly before branching out into a bunch of different directions. For those who have contacted me, thanks for the interest, and I will get more details to you at a later time.

With the latest round of cuts yesterday, it appears Michael Bourn is closer to making the big league team out of camp. Bourn has generated a bit of buzz this spring, I wrote a profile on him a while back, and in my prospect grades, I gave him a B-, noting his great speed, but his fringy offensive skill set. I’m going to attempt to turn this into a poll and see if we can get some idea of what people are thinking. I’ll give my thoughts and rationale under the poll, so you can vote before reading my take on it.

Go here to vote, then come back and keep reading.

To me, Bourn is a really risky guy going forward. As I have highlighted in the past, he’s going to realistically need a .400+ OB% to be an offensive asset in the majors, which will allow him to utilize his speed. Defensively, he seems fine, but he has very little power, and the small dimensions of Citizens Bank Park will likely rob him of a few doubles and triples because of the narrow power alleys. The Phillies can’t really be sure what they have in him, so it seems unlikely they’d just turn over an everyday job to him. At the same time, there is an argument that says he should be getting regular AB’s in Ottawa, but to me, I don’t know what benefit that will be. If they view his offense as fringy, is it really going to improve batting against a lot of minor league mercenaries in AAA? He hasn’t shown any power since his days in Low A, and that probably won’t change. As it is, he’s probably a valuable 5th OF now, able to play defensively at any of the 3 OF positions as well as pinch run in later innings. You also have the notion that other teams may value him because of his speed and defense, and a team like Florida has been mentioned as a possible suitor, mainly because they have no good in house options.

Anyway, I’m curious as to what people think, so please vote, and if you’d like, leave feedback in the comments section.

Hmmmm, the picture is becoming a bit clearer now. Today, the Phillies announced that they were sending Fabio Castro, Eude Brito and Joe Bisenius to minor league camp, along with non-roster invitees Brennan King, Dusty Wathan, Rob Calloway, and Brett Abernathy. This is surprising, for a few reasons. First off, Bisenius has some of the best numbers of any pitcher in camp this spring, I can understand him not breaking camp with the team, but have they already decided who is staying and who isn’t? If this move is based on merit, it’s tough to understand, but if it’s based on managing the 40 man roster, then it makes more sense. However, as I mentioned in the Bisenius piece a few days ago, the Phillies have plenty of room on the 40 man roster at present. It’s also kind of surprising that both Brito and Castro were sent down. Castro has struggled mightily this spring, but the reality is that he was probably going to spend the majority of the season in Ottawa anyway, most likely as a starter. Brito is a bit surprising though. After showing up late to camp because of an injury, he’s pitched decent enough, and he’s one of the only viable lefthanded pitchers the Phillies had for the bullpen. Matt Smith has been, well, not so good, and he’s our only LHP at the moment in the pen. Brito has little value as a major league starter, but I think some value as a reliever…..apparently not though.

So, let’s take a look at how this latest purge affects the bullpen. If we do a tally, we have 8 starting position players, 5 starting pitchers, that’s 13 spots. The norm is a 5 man bench, so we’re up to 18 spots, which means a 7 man bullpen. Here are the “locks”

CL – Gordon (RH)
RP – Madson (RH)
RP – Geary (RH)
RP – Smith (LH)
RP – [Lieber] (RH)
RP –
RP –

So, theoretically, there are 3 open spots. However, you have to assume, barring a trade, that Lieber will occupy one of those spots, unless Garcia’s injury is more serious that believed to be at this point. So, for now if we assume Lieber will open in the bullpen (or traded for a reliever), we have two openings. Here are the potential fillers in those spots

Segovia: 10 IP, 2.70 ERA
Condrey: 10.2 IP, 4.22 ERA
Warden: 6.1 IP, 5.69 ERA
Alfonseca: 6.1 IP, 5.69 ERA
Happ: 16.1 IP, 6.06 ERA

You almost have to assume that Alfonseca is going to get a spot, simply because he’s dripping with veteranacity, even though he isn’t a very good pitcher. On merit, Segovia probably deserves the last spot, but with Warden being a Rule 5 guy, he’s probably going to end up sticking unless he implodes in the final week and Segovia dazzles. Keep an eye on today’s game, as Segovia is starting against the Yankees.

I’ve commented on Joe at length in the past, and as spring training has progressed, the buzz surrounding him has started to grow. The question everyone is asking is, will he make the team out of spring training? I wanted to look at the three determining factors, in my mind, which will ultimately lead to that decision.

His spring performance.  9 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 6 BB, 6 K. As I mentioned whenever talking about Bisenius, his control is the last missing piece, and it doesn’t appear to be there just yet. 6 walks in 9 innings is WAY too many, especially considering it is spring training, and he’s not always facing quality major league hitters. No one really questions his stuff, the mid 90’s heat is there, the hard slider is there, but unless he can command it, he’s going to frustrate his manager, his teammates, and all of us. Pitching to contact isn’t what you want out of your high leverage relievers, but you also don’t want a guy walking 2 in every appearance. If will be interesting to see how his numbers look at this time next week, and ultimately, that will probably go a long way in determining his immediate status.

The performance of everyone else. The Phillies bullpen was obviously wide open this spring, but few have really taken advantage.  Of the non-certainties, only Zach Segovia has pitched well (2.70 ERA in 10 IP), while the next best performance is Clay Condrey’s 4.82 ERA in 9.1 IP. Hopefuls Jim Ed Warden (5.69 ERA), Brian Sanches (6.75 ERA), Alfredo Simon (12.47 ERA, already offered back to Texas), and Anderson Garcia (9.00 ERA) have disappointed. Couple that with Alfonseca’s disappointing spring (7.20 ERA), and Bisenius looks like he HAS to be included. The Phillies surefire guys have to be Gordon, Smith, Geary, and Madson. That’s 4 slots, and there will be at least 2, probably 3 more spots to fill. Alfonseca is probably going to get a spot on the team until Gillick is forced to release him due to suckitude of the highest order. That means 1, maybe 2 spots to fill. Bisenius and Segovia seem like slam dunks, barring any kind of trade.

The 40 man roster.  At present, the Phillies have 4 spots open on the 40 man, so this doesn’t seem like a factor. Also included in that number are Warden, who may be removed and sent back to Cleveland. Segovia is already on the 40 man roster, so he has one less obstacle to overcome, but there is plenty of room there, so it shouldn’t be a means to keep Bisenius in the minors.

So, I suppose it all comes down to the last week of spring training. If I had to handicap it right now, I’d say there’s a 60% chance of him breaking camp with the team. The other 40% involves them keeping Warden, at least for now, Castro making the bullpen despite his poor spring, or a trade bringing in a reliever from another organization. However, with Alfonseca’s performance so far, I doubt it’s very long before Bisenius makes his way to Philly.

Also, is it just me, or does he look like Jeremy Bonderman’s twin brother?

The latest hot topic appears to be Zach Segovia moving into a position to make the bullpen out of spring training. The Inquirer makes a brief mention here, citing his most recent impressive outing against the Yankees, and the Daily News talking about his control and composure. This idea seems to really be picking up steam recently, and maybe more because of everyone else’s general state of suckitude rather than Segovia’s complete dominance. As I highlighted in my profile of Zach, pitching out of the pen, at least for now, might be his area of greatest value to the big league club. The overpowering velocity isn’t there, the strikeout numbers aren’t there, but he doesn’t walk a lot of guys, and that’s an important component for any quality reliever.

Quick update on our top Draft and Follow prospect, Rashad Taylor. Through 71 AB, his batting line:

.423/.535/.809,  25R, 4 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 19 BB, 12 K

Hey Pat, please make this guy a quality offer.

Also, a plea to my fellow Phillies fans….don’t panic about Cole Hamels and his spring struggles, he’s going to be fine.

In Baseball America’s latest prospect blog entries, some updates on Phillies prospects are given. First, Scott Mathieson has begun long tossing from 150 feet and appears to be right on schedule. He should be back to pitching from a mound sometime in July, and might make a cameo in September. However, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be effective right away, as pitchers coming back from TJ almost always go through control/command troubles while regaining arm strength. The realist says that sometime mid 2008 he should be fully ready to contribute at the big league level, the question remains in what role he’ll play. Some argue he should get a shot to be the next closer, others argue his highest value is still in the rotation. Until we know what his arm/stuff is going to look like post surgery, that type of speculation really is just that, speculation.

Mentioned in the same article, Scott Mitchinson is also recovering from shoulder surgery (which I apparently missed) and should also be back and throwing in July. Also, there was a blurb on Drabek and his most recent outing in a Low A spring training game. Apparently the Phillies tried to alter Drabek’s delivery, and because of it, he suffered with a bit of velocity drop and wasn’t sharp. He revised his mechanics, somewhere between what he originally was using and what the Phillies suggested, and his fastball velocity shot back up into the 94 range with improved control, his curve was great, and his changeup was better than it was last season in his brief debut. Drabek was also praised for his attitude and ability to work with his coaches, which has to be seen as a great sign. It looks like he’s a lock to start the year at Lakewood, barring a late injury here.

If you’re a subscriber at Baseball Prospectus, you know all about similarity index and comparable players. If you don’t know, here is a real brief summary. Basically, the backbone of this is the PECOTA system, and is broken down into four main attributes; on field production, shear amount of numbers, physical traits like handedness, and then finally defensive position. The database contains over 20,000 seasons from major leaguers since World War II, as well as 10 years worth of minor league seasons from 1997-2006. Similarity index is basically a snapshot of all of the player’s comparable, with an index of 50 being a very common player, historically speaking, and a rating lower than 20 meaning the player is very unusual in a historical context.

Just for fun, on this miserable looking Friday, I looked at the comparable lists for the Phillies 10 best prospects, according to my prospect grades I did a little while back. Here are just a few brief thoughts on each guy.

1. Carlos Carrasco: SI = 57. At this point, his ten most comparable pitchers isn’t a pretty sight, but near the bottom of the top 10, then the 11-15 range, you see names like Jeremy Bonderman of 2003 (#7) and Yovani Gallardo of 2006 (#12). Because he had such a night and day change from 2005 to 2006, it’s tough to project him. The upside is definitely there.

2. Adrian Cardenas: SI = 24. Lots of interesting guys in his Top 20, including David Wright (#3), Ian Stewart (#13) and Milton Bradley (#14). Again, we’re dealing with a small sample size, hence his low Similarity Index.

3. D’Arby Myers: SI = 7. Clearly, because he was only 17 in the GCL, he’s a somewhat unique case. However, numbers 8-10 on his list include Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes and Carlos Gonzalez, one of the best prospects in baseball.

4. Scott Mathieson: SI = 66. Mathieson’s top 20 is all over the map, but does include a few really good signs, including Jake Peavy circa 2004 (#3) and Catfish Hunter circa 1969 (#7). However, it also includes guys like Victor Santos and Seth Etherton. We won’t really know anything about his future until sometime in 2008.

5. Josh Outman: SI = 59. Outman’s top 20 is absolutely ugly in every way. He really turned things up in 2006, and he was outstanding over the last 6 weeks of the season, but he still has control issues. We can only hope his list looks better at this time next year.

6. Edgar Garcia. No comparables in the PECOTA system yet.

7. James Happ: SI = 62. Happ’s top 20 is ugly as well, but interestingly, Doug Davis circa 2000 is his #3 comparable. Prior to Happ adding velocity on his fastball, he shared a lot of similarities to Davis. You could do worse than Doug Davis, who is a capable innings eater, but with a strong 2007, I’d imagine Happ’s comparable pitchers list will change a bit.

8. Joe Bisenius. No comparables in the PECOTA system yet.

9. Dan Brauer. No comparables in the PECOTA system yet.

10. Ben Pfinsgraff. No comparables in the PECOTA system yet.

Since a few guys aren’t in the system yet, I figured I’d look at a few lower ranked prospects and see how they stacked up.

Matt Maloney: SI = 60. Doug Davis circa 1999 comes in as his #2 comparable, and Brian Fuentes circa 1999 his #7 comparable.

Michael Bourn: SI = 49. The 2004 version of Tim Raines is his #4 comparable, and the only guy that looks anywhere near decent is Randy Winn circa 1998, who is his #15 comparable. Maybe this helps affirm my worries about him being a regular player in the big leagues.

Today’s player profile is a guy I’m having a hard time figuring out, 2002 2nd round pick Zach Segovia. Since being drafted in 2002, Zach has seen his share of ups and downs, including Tommy John surgery in 2004 and what appears to finally be a return to full health in 2006. With much uncertainty surrounding the Phillies bullpen entering the season, his name has been mentioned a few times as a possible candidate. Entering his age 24 season, he’s seen his performance fluctuate wildly, and his ERA hasn’t always matched his peripherals, couple that with his sometimes less than awesome stuff, his possible conditioning issues, and he really is impossible to project.

First, lets take a look at his numbers, season by season, and see if we can figure them out.

2002, GCL: 34.1 IP, 2.10 ERA, 21 H, 3 BB, 30 K

An impressive debut at age 19 for Zach. He kept his hits way down, allowed only 3 walks, and struck out 30. Expectations were obviously high after the strong start.

2003, GCL: 9 IP, 4.00 ERA, 8 H, 0 BB, 6 K
2003, Lakewood: 49.2 IP, 3.99 ERA, 63 H,  14 BB, 27 K

Clearly something was up here. His hit rate went through the roof, and while his control was still solid, his K rate plummeted. The Phillies knew something was wrong, and sure enough, he had done ligament damage in his right arm and needed Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss the entire 2004 season.

2005, Clearwater: 144.2 IP, 5.54 ERA, 168 H, 48 BB, 83 K

At first glance, the ERA is awful, and he allowed a ton of hits with few strikeouts. However, there is a silver lining, that being his great control. With pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery, command and control are normally the last things they regain, but Segovia still displayed great control in his first season back, and maybe more importantly, he pitched 144 innings, showing that his arm was healthy.

2006, Clearwater:  49.1 IP, 2.19 ERA, 39 H, 12 BB, 41 K
2006, Reading: 107 IP, 3.11 ERA, 90 H, 24 BB, 75 K

In his second season back, his trademark control again remained intact, but this time, his hit rate jumped right back in line with where it should be, though his K rate was still lagging behind. I like to look at walk rate and strikeout rate separately, as I think K/BB can sometimes be misleading,  but he does average 3 K per BB, which is decent. The other great asset which he has retained is the ability to keep the ball on the ground and not allow home runs. In 394 IP as a pro, he’s allowed only 30 HR, a very respectable number. In 2006, he allowed 10 in 156.1 IP, again not a bad total. Last season he also induced 220 groundballs to only 170 flyballs, a solid ratio for a guy who doesn’t strike out many guys.

So, if we look at his numbers overall, they are pretty decent. His 2005 ERA is bloated, but that’s to be expected for a guy in his first year after Tommy John. Now we have to look at his stuff. Depending on who you talk to, it appears the majority opinion is that he hasn’t regained his pre Tommy John velocity, and two years removed from the surgery, he probably never will. From most scouting reports of him last season, he was consistently in the high 80’s with his fastball, hitting 91 or 92 on occasion. He has at least average secondary offerings, and his stuff plays up a bit because of his excellent control, but it does leave us with a tough time projecting his future.

Command and control guys, or finesse pitchers if you will, have much less room for error than guys with overpowering stuff. Often times, flamethrowers are overrated by scouts, and even despite terrible numbers, are more well thought of as prospects because of the notion that they “might put it all together one day” and become special. However, a larger percentage of these guys never make it, and end up flaming out because of lack of control. On the other side, finesse pitchers who are able to outmaneuver minor league hitters often struggle when they get to the big leagues, mainly because they fall victim to nibbler syndrome, where they try and be too fine and hit corners, end up walking a ton of guys or always end up behind in the count, which results in fat pitches hit to all quadrants of the park. The obvious best solution is a guy with good stuff who also has good control. But those guys don’t grow on trees.

So, where does that leave Zach? Well, I’m not really sure, and in doing my grades and projections, he was a tough guy to figure out. I gave him a solid B grade in my prospect grades, and I feel like he could be a starter at the big league level, but I wrestle with that thought now. His command is obviously good enough to be a starter, his groundball tendencies are there, but is the lack of overpowering stuff going to kill him at the next level? Is he going to be better off as a 7th inning reliever, where he doesn’t have to face a lineup 3 times? As a #5 starter, I think he’d be a fine addition on most teams. On a mediocre team, he might even be the 4th best option. On the worst of teams, he might even be a credible #3 eventually. But on this current Phillies team, he might be better suited to pitching in relief. I think he’s going to spend time at Ottawa this season before he makes it to Philly, unless he’s absolutely lights out the rest of spring training and most of the other candidates in the bullpen implode. I’m not a fan of low strikeout guys pitching in high leverage situations, but with Segovia, I really have no idea what to expect out of him at the next level, so I’ll go with the “never say never” line until we have a better read on him.

A few articles of note this morning. First, a piece talking about Justin Germano, his minor league numbers and his brief major league experience, and the possibility of him moving to the bullpen and breaking camp with the team.

However, in his last six seasons of professional ball, he has three relief appearances.

”Coming up, I had the attitude that I’m a starter, and that’s it,” said Germano. ”Now, I want to do whatever I need to do to get there. ”I’m getting into the mind-set of being a long reliever right now. I pitched out of the pen a few times and felt a little uncomfortable. I’m working on figuring out what I need to do to get ready quickly.”

Charlie Manuel wouldn’t mind seeing a capable reliever emerge in a hurry. ”He has good off-speed stuff and he throws it for strikes,” Manuel said. ”The hitters aren’t used to seeing sharp off-speed pitches this early, but if he can keep getting guys out, he can be [in the majors].”

Germano as a reliever is an interesting idea. He doesn’t turn 25 until August, so it’s not like he has no chance of being a successful starter, but he really lacks the stuff to be anything more than a 5th starter on a good team/4th starter on a poor team. He’s always shown great command with poor strikeout numbers, and I’m hesitant of having those types of guys in high leverage situations, but as a long man, he could provide a cheap, decent option. Who knows, not all relievers are high strikeout/swing and miss type guys, but that’s what you look for, and that isn’t Germano. Never say never though. I rated Germano the 36th best prospect in the organization, giving him a C+

Also, an AP article talking about the Phillies move to Ottawa this season. For all your Ottawa Lynx needs, visit the unofficial and definitive Ottawa Lynx Blog.

This brief blurb touches on the progress of Alfredo Simon and Jim Ed Warden this spring. I was really expecting nothing from Simon, but had hopes that Warden would work out. It looks like his confidence hasn’t returned and he’s struggled all spring. The Phillies plan to contend from Day 1, so don’t expect them to keep either Rule 5 guy around if they don’t really turn things around soon, and I have a feeling Gillick won’t be afraid to cut bait early on. The article also mentions the idea of Germano moving to the pen.

In this article, reliever Matt Smith really tears into himself about his performance, and ponders the thought of being sent down to the minors.  Smith, the only viable lefty we have right now, probably doesn’t have to worry about that, but it’s nice to see he realizes he needs to be sharp and not just rest on his positive performance in 2006.

The Phillies bullpen is the obvious glaring weakness at this point. Germano’s name emerging is interesting, and I have a feeling you’ll hear thoughts of Zach Segovia and James Happ starting the season in the pen as well. Earl Weaver was a big fan of breaking in young pitchers in the bullpen, so with a strong spring, you’d think they might give those two a look. However, I think in terms of long term health and value, if the Phillies feel Happ will be a starter, they should leave him in relief all season, and then have him resume a throwing pattern/workload next offseason to get his arm into starter mode again. Some pitchers have a hard time bouncing back on a day’s rest, and you never really know how each pitcher will react. I think that moving a guy between roles who isn’t familiar with doing that can sometimes cause problems, whether it be the arm’s resiliency, or the pitcher’s performance. You have to wonder if Madson’s struggles last year had anything to do with him just not being in the right frame of mind to pitch in relief after starting earlier in the season. I’m sure it’s different for every pitcher.