Tuesday night proved to be an interesting night for the Phillies stable of pitching prospects, as three of the most interesting guys in the system all took the mound, and two of the three were pitching against highly rated pitching prospects for their respective teams. The night also proved to be a continuation of early trends for all three pitchers.

Continue reading A tale of three pitchers →

Way back when, when this blog first started up, I wrote a piece about the timetable for prospects, and how to look at a player and properly assess his “prospect status” and things like that. I wanted to write a followup, go over some of those ideas again, and expound on them a bit, because I’ve been getting a bunch of questions via e-mail, and here in the comments section, asking about guys like Landon Jacobsen and Greg Jacobs. So, I felt like I’d try and answer them in a broad manner and give sort of guide for you to make things easier.

Continue reading Prospect v Non-Prospect, Part 2 →

It’s Monday, that means it’s time to find out who the hottest and coldest players were for last week’s games. Also, if you notice, there is a display problem with the category tags on the left side of the page. This is a WordPress issue and should be fixed sometime today. So, onto the list, and this week, I’ll add a small blurb with each player.

Hot….

Jason Jaramillo: 10/21, 2 BB, 6 R, 4 RBI

It’s been an interesting 6 months or so for Jason. Thought of as a highly touted defensive catcher who wouldn’t hit much, he drew mixed reviews on his defense after last season, and we started to wonder what kind of prospect he’d really be if his defense wasn’t great. Now, he’s tearing up the International League, and looks like an offensive asset. It’s only 3 weeks, but this is certainly a promising start. I hate to get ahead of myself, but the thought of a Ruiz/Jaramillo major league catching tandem next year, for the league minimum, is a really great prospect.

Pat Overholt: 13.2 IP, 0.68 ERA, 12 H, 2 BB, 10 K

The “Overholt to starter” experiment looks like a winning bet thus far. When talking about starters and relievers, generally a starter is more valuable than a reliever, unless you’re talking about a fungible 5th starter/longman versus a closer. If Overholt proves to be more capable of being a #3 instead of a #5, then this move is fine. He’s generated a ton of groundballs but is still striking guys out, and that bodes well going forward.

Carlos Carrasco: 7.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K

I put Carlos on the “Cold” list last time after 1 bad start, so I felt I should give him a fair shake and put him on the “Hot” list after one good start. The 1 walk is a promising sign, the 4 K is a tad low, but you can’t have your A+ stuff every time out. The key for Carrasco is handling aversity and learning how to battle when you don’t have your best stuff. That’s easier to do in Low A than High A, so this is a valuable learning lesson for an immensely talented prospect.

Gus Milner: 6/20, 2 BB, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R

I wrote this about Milner, in giving him a C+ grade a few months back…

“Milner despite being HUGE, (6′5, 240 lbs), played CF in college, and apparently played it well, which means that when he moves, he might move to RF, not automatically to 1B. Milner is a great athlete with great size, but based on his offensive numbers, is far from a finished product. He did log 6 triples in 70 games, but only stole 4 bases in 7 attempts. I like the upside on Milner, but he was 22 and will be 23 in 2007, so he needs to have a big year at Lakewood, along the lines of Jeremy Slayden’s 2006, in order for him to improve his grade.”

So far so good….

Anderson Garcia: 3.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 K

The inclusion of Garcia as the 5th name is more an indication of the general struggles of the offense and the lack of another great pitching performance. I could have given the nod to Carlos Monasterios for his last start, but I went with Garcia. A waiver pickup in the offseason, he’s thrown his mid 90’s fastball by just about everyone so far. He still doesn’t appear to have a reliable offspeed pitch, or at least he hasn’t shown he needs it yet. He’s a fringe prospect right now, but with a huge campaign in Reading, could earn his way into a possible late season callup when the rosters expand.

Not…

Adrian Cardenas: 5/24 (.208), 2 2B, 1 R, 3 RBI

Adrian really hasn’t gotten it going yet. He’s been kind of up and down, which is certainly to be expected. In a recent article I linked, he mentioned how much tougher it is to make adjustments in pro ball, whereas in High School, he really didn’t have to adjust and everything just happened. It’s a long season, and the mental part is just as tough as the physical part. He seems capable, he understands at an early stage what it takes, and I think given time this season, the results will be there. To put up a great season in a full season league at age 19 takes a lot of talent, both physically and mentally, and I’m convinced it’s going to click into place. Also remember, this is his first exposure to playing in cold weather. The Jersey shore is a bit different than sunny Florida in April.

Carl Henry: 2/13 (.154), 1 HR, 2 RBI

New name, same results. The home run is nice to see, but there’s little else there. Henry is still young, the tools are still there, but it’s time to turn on the jets and go on a 2 or 3 week tear.

Jeremy Slayden: 3/24 (.125), 5 BB, 1 HR, 4 RBI

Slayden is off to a slower start than one had hoped, considering many of us felt he should have been double jumped to Reading because of his age and experience. The walks and plate discipline are nice, the lack of extra base hits is a tad troubling, but he should get it going.

Greg Golson: 6/30 (.200), 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI

Golson hit for the “weekly cycle”, but hit little else. Complete lack of plate discipline still appears to be a problem, and one that, at this point, we shouldn’t wait around and hope to see fixed.

Mike Costanzo: 5/22 (.227), 1 HR, 1 2B

A cold list regular, Costanzo makes a re-appearance this week. Another home run, but another truckload of strikeouts, and just as alarming, more errors. The most disturbing Costanzo stat; through 15 games, he has more than twice as many errors (7) as walks (3), and has struck out 26 times in 53 at bats. That’s just….well….the opposite of good.

As always, feedback is welcome.

While I’ve previously expressed a differing opinion than the Phillies on Pat Overholt’s role, he continues to impress, with an 8 inning gem tonight. He allowed 6 hits and 1 walk to go with his 3 strikeouts. More impressively, he logged 14 ground ball outs against only 6 fly outs. Here are his game logs this season

4/5: 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K
4/11: 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K
4/16: 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K
4/21: 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K

Here are his GB: FB numbers in those starts

4/5: 4 GB, 6 FB
4/11:  11 GB,  1 FB
4/16: 8 GB, 0 FB
4/21: 14 GB, 6 FB

Add that up, he’s registered 37 GB outs to only 13 FB outs, good for almost a 3 to 1 ratio. If he continues to pitch along those lines, and can keep his walks down, he’ll likely experience success as a starter. While I do tend to worry about starting pitchers who don’t miss bats, if he’s getting weak contact, it’s not quite as big an issue.

Before I get to the update, I’m still looking for correspondants to write a once a week report for Lakewood and Reading. If you’re interested, send an e-mail to phuturephillies @ hotmail dot com

Way back in January, I wrote a little piece on 5 pitchers in the Phillies system that I thought would merit special attention and following in 2007, as I felt they were candidates to have very solid seasons and elevate their prospect status. So, let’s see how my guys are doing thus far.

Continue reading Arms to Watch, Update #1 →

I’ve gotten a few questions on the whereabouts of D’Arby Myers, both here on the blog and via e-mail, so here’s what I know. Myers is in extended spring training right now. Extended spring training is basically the equivalent of sandlot baseball. It’s more about instruction and repetition, with very loosely played games, sometimes of the intra-squad variety and sometimes against the complex teams of nearby organizations. It serves as a place for injured players to rehab, toss batting practice, etc etc, instead of doing it in pressure game situations when you aren’t 100% ready for the season. Myers, despite his success in the GCL in his debut is still very raw, and the Phillies probably wanted to ease him into action this season. My guess, and this is purely a guess, is that he will make an appearance at Lakewood sometime in May. I get the feeling the Phillies will give him a one month trial or so at Lakewood, see how he handles Low A pitching, and go from there. If he holds his own and looks good in the box, they’ll probably keep him at Lakewood for the duration of the season. If he struggles, they can re-assign him to Williamsport once the short season league opens.

I’m working on getting a Q/A with D’Arby sometime in the near future, but I can’t make any promises.

Two weeks (actually 1.5) in the books, let’s see who’s hitting their stride and who’s still not quite getting it in gear.

Sizzling

Dan Brauer: 11 IP, 1 ER, 7 H,  5 BB, 12 K, 2 W
Andrew Carpenter: 11 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 1 W
Lou Marson: 21 AB, .381/.381/.619, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI
Jason Donald: 20 AB, .400/.400/.500, 2 2B, 5 R
Adrian Cardenas: 15 AB, .467/.467/.533, 1 2B, 1 R, 3 RBI
James Happ: 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 3 BB, 6 K

Frozen

Joe Bisenius: 1.2 IP, 37.50 ERA (5 ER), 4 H, 2 BB, 0 K
Mike Costanzo: 23 AB, .174/.240/.217, 1 2B, 1 R, 2 RBI
CJ Henry: 18 AB, .167/.286/.278, 2 2B, 2 R, 3 RBI
Carlos Carrasco: 3.1 IP, 20.32 ERA (7 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K
Darren Byrd: 4.0 IP, 11.25 ERA (5 ER), 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K

Our first installment begins now.

Who’s Hot?

Javon Moran (AA): 6/12, 5 R, 3 2B, 2 RBI, 3/3 SB
Jeremy Slayden (A+): 7/12, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI
Greg Golson (A+): 6/14, 5 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2/2 SB
Gus Milner (A-): 5/12, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 3B
Edgar Garcia (A-): 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 K

Who’s Not?

Brad Harman (A+): 2/14, 3 R, 1 HR
Tuffy Gosewich (A-): 2/12, 1 R, 1 HR
Adrian Cardenas (A-): 3/12, 2 R, 2 RBI
Josh Outman (A+): 2.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K
Brett Harker (A+): 1.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 K

Just a real quick preview of tonight’s action. Also, I’ve made a few more adjustments on the team rosters.

Lakewood v Greensboro, 6:35 PM
Carlos Monasterios v TBA
Game Preview

Clearwater v Dunedin, 7:05 PM
Freddy Garcia (Rehab Start) v TBA (Possibly Brandon Magee)

Reading v Harrisburg, 7:05 PM
Landon Jacobsen v TJ Nall
Season Preview

On the eve of the minor league season opener, I felt a little preview was in order. Check back tomorrow for a full update on our 2006 Draft and Follows, but for now, let’s take a look at the upcoming season for each of the Phillies full season affiliates.

Lakewood, South Atlantic League: Lakewood, the defending SAL champions, open their season tomorrow night with a 3 game series at home against Greensboro. The 2006 team was built on pitching, and the 2007 team figures to be much of the same, with a rotation featuring first round pick Kyle Drabek, Edgar Garcia, and a bunch of live arms in Carlos Monasterios, Darren Byrd, Jarrod Freeman, Michael Dubee, Andrew Cruse, and Alex Concepcion. Up the middle, the Phillies feature Adrian Cardenas at 2B and Jason Donald at SS, a tandem which is likely to climb the organizational ladder together. The outfield will most likely be a four man rotation, with Quintin Berry and Gus Milner being to the two prospects to keep your eye on. CJ Henry, acquired in the Bobby Abreu trade, will shift from SS to 3B this season, and though he has been disappointing, he’s still young, and could still turn into a decent prospect.

Clearwater, Florida State League: The Threshers are coming off a somewhat disappointing season, having gone 67-72 in 2006 and finishing 5th in the FSL West division. This season, however, they figure to be a bit better, and will be backed by arguably the strongest pitching rotation in the minors. The starting rotation will feature Carlos Carrasco, Josh Outman, Drew Carpenter, Dan Brauer, and Pat Overholt, meaning you will see a legitimate prospect pitching every evening for Clearwater. In the bullpen, Brett Harker is the logical choice to close out games, and he’ll be supported by Will Savage and Mike Zagurski in the late innings. On the offensive side, the team could again struggle to score runs, with Brad Harman and Jeremy Slayden the only real offensive forces, unless Welinson Baez finally steps forward and displays the tools he shows in practice. Lou Marson figures to be the every day catcher, and is responsible for handling a very talented pitching staff.

Reading, Eastern League: The Reading Phillies finished 71-69, good for 3rd place in the Southern division of the Eastern League. The 2007 team is going to lack in position player prospects, as really only Mike Costanzo and Javon Moran can still be considered legitimate prospects. There are plenty of minor league veterans, guys like Juan Tejeda and Joe Thurston, so they could still score some runs, but not a whole lot to get excited about, prospects wise. On the pitching side, things are a bit brighter, as the rotation should be fronted by Matt Maloney, Kyle Kendrick and Julio De La Cruz, being rounded out by Tim McClaskey and free agent pickup Landon Jacobsen. The bullpen will likely be led by minor league veteran Chris Key, who saved 20 games for Reading last season. He’ll be joined by Nick Evangelista, Nate Johnson and new acquisitions Heath Totten and Anderson Garcia. Of the bunch, Garcia and Evangelista are worth watching, but both will need to really show a solid performance to still be on the prospect radar at this time next year.

Ottawa, International League: The Phillies first and last season in Ottawa begins Friday night against Rochester. The Ottawa roster figures to be in a state of flux for much of the season, as guys like Joe Bisenius, Zach Segovia, James Happ, Eude Brito and Fabio Castro move between Ottawa and Philadelphia on a need or merit basis. The rotation figures to be Brian Mazone, Happ, Segovia, Brito and Castro, but Segovia’s first start of the season is likely to come in Philadelphia, and he’ll most likely head to Ottawa once Freddy Garcia comes off the disabled list. Joe Bisenius could join him when Jon Lieber returns, unless another move is made. Happ will likely make his major league debut this season, and Brito might see a spot start here or there, or could eventually be used in the bullpen, depending how things shake out. On the offensive side, the only real prospect is Jason Jaramillo, who might make his big league debut in September, or possibly sooner depending on the health of Barajas and Ruiz. The rest of the lineup is filled with minor league veterans like Brennan King, Ron Calloway, Carlos Leon and Gary Burnham. Yoel Hernandez will likely close out games while Bisenius is in Philadelphia, and if he’s to regain prospect status, he needs to do it quickly. Brian Sanches is another possibility to close games, and he’ll be joined in the pen by minor league vets in Kane Davis, Jim Crowell and John Ennis.

It should be a fun season, make sure to check back daily for game recaps, prospect analysis and other features as the season unfolds.