Well, its that time. Tomorrow is draft day, and that means its time for my final mock draft. You can see version 2.1 here and version 1.1 here. For the last mock draft I put out (2.1), I tried to base my projections mainly off of draft trends, and not really focusing on the latest rumors, as I think track record is generally more important when considering who will go where. Now that we’re only a few days away from the draft, I’m going to take those track records as well as the latest rumors into consideration and try to give my absolute best guess. I’ll go through the first 34 picks, which would cover the Phillies compensation pick. I think trying to guess after the first round is pretty nearly impossible, as the talent dropoff begins and the signability factor, which few of us really have a handle on, becomes a big issue. So, lets get started….
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Kevin Goldstein draft rankings
KG released his Top 50 today in terms of pure talent, with a mock draft coming tomorrow. Here’s where he ranks a bunch of the guys the Phillies have been linked to…
22. Anthony Hewitt, SS, The Salisbury School (CT)
What He Is: On a pure tools level, he’s the best athlete in this year’s draft, maybe the past several years.
What He’s Not: A baseball player.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: An absolute monster.
Backup Plan: You want fries with that? All kidding aside, he’s a bright kid who’ll go to a good school and end up just fine if this whole baseball thing doesn’t work out.
Open Issues: His risk/reward balance is so thrown off that people have a hard time coming up with a good valuation; like many East Coast prep kids, he’s a year older than most high schoolers.25. Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS (CA)
What He Is: A toolsy player who rocketed from decent prospect to surefire first rounder with an outstanding spring.
What He’s Not: Polished or experienced.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A player with a very good batting average and decent power.
Backup Plan: Fourth outfielder.
Open Issues: Without a ton of power or a ton of speed, is he a tweener?28. David Cooper, 1B, California
What He Is: Yet another bat-only college first baseman, but loaded with everyone’s favorite two p’s, power and plate discipline.
What He’s Not: A guy who will ever be a good defender or win a foot race.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A middle-of-the-order run producer.
Backup Plan: Something less than that, but he’s pretty much first base and DH only.
Open Issues: He is what he is, as his body doesn’t offer a ton of projection.30. Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona
What He Is: The son of an NFL lineman and a bulky lefty who’s velocity is hard to match among this year’s crop of southpaws.
What He’s Not: Anything more than a reliever.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: Randy Myers?
Backup Plan: More of a set-up type.
Open Issues: He has a long medical record, including a Tommy John surgery; his delivery has a lot of moving parts.38. Brett Devall, LHP, Niceville HS (FL)
What He Is: As advanced as any high school arm in the draft, with outstanding control and a deep arsenal.
What He’s Not: A power arm.
In A Perfect World He Becomes: A fourth starter.
Backup Plan: Some kind of big leaguer.
Open Issues: Can the fringe-average fastball set up the secondary stuff? Does his ceiling justify his price, or is there such a thing as a safe high school arm?
More draft thoughts
We’ll do this one with bullet points, just some general thoughts. Tomorrow I’ll post my final mock draft as well as some thoughts on the Phillies 7 early picks, and then on Thursday we’ll follow the draft as it happens and discuss the Phillies picks as well as other picks of note.
* Jim Salisbury, the only Phillies beat writer who really gives service to the draft, had some interesting notes in this article, which you may have seen by now. This is the money quote from Arbuckle;
“Can we take a kid who is worth $300,000 and give him $1.5 million? No,” Arbuckle said. “Can we take a kid who might be worth $350,000 and give him $600,000? If we see value and it’s the kid we want and that’s what it will take to sign him, then yeah, we might do that.”
There is some promise there, but of course “might” is the operative word. My stance on taking the best talent is well known. I don’t expect the Phillies to go crazy and sign every unsignable kid to a huge bonus, I just don’t want to see guys taken and given well below slot bonuses just to keep the draft budget down.
Daily Discussion; 6/3
I’ll throw the daily discussion thread up here, and then I’m also going to work on something for the draft, as thats the mode I’m in right now. First a recap of yesterday’s action
Lakewood wins 8-7.
Clearwater wins 8-7.
Lehigh Valley loses 5-1.
And now for today’s games…
Daily Discussion; 5/30-6/2
I’m going to be out of town this weekend and will not be arriving back till late Monday, so while I’m gone, behave yourselves and discuss the games that happen, as well as these tidbits;
* There is something very very wrong with Andrew Carpenter. Last night he went 4.1 IP — 8 ER — 9 H– 2 BB — 3 K. Now I know the jump from A+ to AA is the toughest in the minors outside of short season to Low A, but come on. Troubling as well is the 1.17 GO: AO ratio. I hinted 6 weeks ago that he had to be handled carefully because of the workload increase he saw in 2007, but it looks like he couldn’t have been handled carefully enough.
* Travis Mattair is hitting .333 over his last 10 games, with 3 of his 6 doubles for the season coming over that span. He’s racked up the strikeouts (45), but has already drawn 16 walks as well. Mattair was a three sport star in high school and turned down multiple scholarships to play baseball. I kind of suspected he’d be a bit of a project, but he is already showing signs of the raw ability. While the power hasn’t emerged yet, he seems to be making adjustments, and you have to figure the HR will come for a kid who is 6’5, 210 lbs.
* Josh Outman has given up 6 ER in his last 4 innings, covering 3 relief appearances, and that comes after a string of 10 scoreless innings. His splits so far this season;
SP: 25.2 IP — 3.16 ERA — 29 H — 15 BB — 32 K — .279 BA
RP: 17.1 IP — 4.15 ERA — 16 H — 8 BB — 16 K — .258 BA
Its still a small sample, but so far, I’m sure the results are not what the Phillies were hoping for. His control is still an issue against both lefties and righties, but he is holding lefties to a .222 BA against. I think he should be in Philly at some point this season, but it might take a little longer than some thought.
Ok, I’m off for a long weekend. Don’t burn the place down while I’m gone.
The draft is a week away
Wow. It really kind of crept up I suppose, but the draft starts next Thursday at 2PM, and the first round + comp round will be shown on ESPN2 I do believe. I’ve posted two mock drafts, and I suppose I’ll churn out one more next Wednesday, trying to incorporate the murmurs on what teams are thinking. There’s lots of smoke and little fire at this point, and I trust the track record of teams more than the latest buzz, and those track records are what I built my last mock draft on, so not much is likely to change, but I will make a few adjustments. I’m going to devote this post to the first round and the compensation round, and then I’ll look at guys we can possibly grab in the 2nd round on Tuesday before wrapping everything up on Wednesday before the draft. On draft day, I’ll make a draft discussion thread and update it as the day progresses. If you’ve just stumbled onto the site, you can check out everything I’ve written on the 2008 draft by clicking here. You can see my first mock draft here, and my second mock draft here. Now, onto our first 2 picks.
Marson makes the Ten Pack
Marson Mania is kicking into full gear. Lou made this week’s Ten Pack;
Marson was one of the Phillies’ breakout players last year, batting .288/.373/.407 at High-A Clearwater while featuring plenty of athleticism behind the plate. All of that has led to another step forward this year, as Marson is currently riding a nine-game hitting streak is which he’s reached base 22 times and driven in 15 runs. Now batting .345/.462/.460 for the R-Phils, Marson has turned into an absolute on-base machine, reaching safely at an even .500 pace in 21 May games, and he’s doing his part defensively as well by nailing 39 percent of opposing basestealers. From nice catching prospect to very good one, Marson could fill one of the Phillies few lineup weaknesses by mid-2009.
Daily Discussion; 5/28
First a recap of yesterday’s action
Lakewood wins 6-5.
Clearwater loses 10-5.
Reading loses 3-1.
Lehigh Valley wins 7-3.
Quick note. SQUIRE, if you read this, can you please drop me an e-mail? I have a question/inquiry for you.
Today’s action….
Daily Discussion; 5/27
I don’t have time today to post all of the recaps from the weekend games, but feel free to discuss any of those results should the urge hit you. Here are a few talking points before we get to today’s games;
* Andrew Carpenter now has a 6.18 ERA in 55.1 IP. Is this just a case of him having a poor two months adjusting to AA? Is he carrying an injury? I raised the notion about 6 weeks ago that he could have trouble this year, as he violated the “Rule of 30” last season.
* Lou Marson has a 1.150 OPS in 36 AB v LHP. His .843 OPS against RHP is still impressive, but man is he destroying lefties. Overall, he’s hitting .424 in his last 10 games with 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 SB, and 8 BB to go with 8 K. Young Lou is on fire.
* While I’m normally the guy that stresses patience when everyone wants a guy promoted after 6 weeks, can someone explain to me why 24 year old Chance Chapman is still at Lakewood? Has he already ascended into “organizational filler” less than a year after being drafted? His peripherals are decent, but he’s pitching against guys 4-5 years younger than him. If anyone should be converted to a reliever and fast-tracked, its Chapman.
Now, onto today’s games
Carrasco makes the BA Hotsheet
Its Friday, that means the Baseball America hotsheet. Carlos Carrasco comes in at #10
The Scoop: If McGee is No. 9, then Carrasco fits in nicely right behind him after posting a nearly identical line at the same level (albeit in different leagues), with Carrasco allowing one more hit than McGee. Carrasco has mixed some outstanding starts with some not-so-hot starts, but the 21-year-old always shows flashes of his potential. “The stuff’s there,” Reading manager P.J. Forbes said. “He’s shown the flashes that he’s gonna pitch in the big leagues. We’re waiting to see the consistency that comes along with his stuff. He’s got three plus pitches, plus command and now it’s just a matter of him putting it together every five days. That consistency over two, three, four starts is all we’re looking for because the stuff is there.”
Obvious omission; Lou Marson. There will be a chat about the list at 2:30 Eastern. Hopefully we can find out why Marson was left off, though I’m guessing the response will have something to do with the “lack of extra base hits”….
Phuture Phillies 