In the first official Grapefruit League game for the Phillies, they fell to the Tigers 9-7. Not much in the way of prospect news in the game:

Michael Bourn: 1/2, 1 R
Fabio Castro: 3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 K
Anderson Garcia: 1 IP, 3 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 1 K
Brian Sanches: 1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K

Also, there was a little writeup on Kyle Drabek’s performance. He said all the right things in camp, and hopefully with a strong showing at Lakewood, people will start talking about him for the all the right reasons, not the troubles he had in the past. Reports were that his velocity was down around 88-89 mph, but that’s to be expected this early in the season. Most of the big name college pitchers, guys like David Price and Andrew Brackmann, were reportedly also throwing 3-5 mph below their peak in early starts. You have to remember that it is March, and I’m sure nerves played a factor for Drabek. Because he appears to have been a model citizen in big league camp, he’ll probably end up with his full season assignment at Lakewood, pitching in what should be a great rotation.

First, one guy I missed, then the revisions, and then the overall wrap-up. Thanks for the all the feedback as we progressed through.

De La Cruz, Maximo, RHP (age 22) Grade = C-

De La Cruz, in his age 21 season, didn’t really make much progress at Lakewood, posting a 4.90 ERA in 90 innings pitched. Shuttling between the rotation and bullpen, he allowed 98 hits and 35 walks compared to only 58 strikeouts. His performance was inconsistent, and for someone repeating Low A, I expected more out of him. He still is young, but he’s going to need a breakout performace in 2007 to be considered a decent prospect again.

2007 Outlook: De La Cruz will probably be a full time reliever in the near future, maybe even in 2007, with the shear amount of promising arms the Phillies have in their system. It’s possible he could spend 2007 in Lakewood again, but it’s likely that he’ll be moved to Clearwater.

Revisions

Carlos Monasterios, from a B to a B-. Slotting him in as a B was maybe a bit optimistic, but I think his control is a plus, even if his other numbers are lagging. He was old for the GCL, but that is offset in him pitching in the US for the first time in 2006.

Will Savage from a B to a B-. Because his role is likely to be as a reliever, and because he was a college pitcher, I decided to bump him down a half grade.

Ronald Hill, from a C to a C-. I bumped him down a half grade due to age.

Tim Kennelley, from a C- to a C. I bumped him up because of his age and because he was learning to catch really for the first time in his career, which probably affected his offensive numbers.

Tim Moss, from a D- to a D. A D will be the lowest grade given, I feel bad for giving him a D-.

Welinson Baez, from a D+ to a C-. Because he is still young, and he does have outstanding tools, I’m willing to cut him some slack, but he definitely needs a big 2007.

Greg Golson, from a D+ to a C-. See above. He did improve slightly when challenged with a promotion to High A, so I’ll give him some slack here. Again, he needs a big 2007 to recover his prospect status.

Derick Griffith, from a D+ to a C-. He regressed in 2006, and is dangling on the edge, but I’ll cut him some slack.

Final Wrapup:

I’ll list the prospects in groups based on grades, but I’ll also rank them within the group. So, all of the A’s will be first, but I’ll rank all of the A’s in order. Remember, though, that all A level prospects are close, all B+ prospects are very close, etc etc. When it came to breaking ties, I considered age/level/performance.

Also, I wanted to make one more comment on these grades. I tried to develop a system for grading guys, and my system was based much more on performance than tools. Tools are very important to me, but when it comes down to it, some guys are “dream athletes” who just never put it together, while other guys always seem to get the job done, even if they are less heralded. So, in doing these grades, my goal was to simply evaluate what a player has done, considering his age and level, and then tinker with his grade based on his tools and adjust it in that manner. It’s not a perfect system, but I’m going to work on it and try to make it that much better by this time next season.

A

1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP (age 19)
2. Adrian Cardenas, SS (age 19)
3. D’Arby Myers, OF (age 18)

A-

4. Scott Mathieson, RHP (age 22)
5. Josh Outman, LHP (age 22)
6. Edgar Garcia, RHP (age 19)

B+

7. James Happ, LHP (age 24)
8. Joe Bisenius, RHP (age 24)
9. Dan Brauer, LHP (age 23)
10. Ben Pfinsgraff, RHP (age 23)

B

11. Kyle Kendrick, RHP (age 22)
12. Brad Harman, SS (age 21)
13. Zach Segovia, RHP (age 24)
14. Matt Maloney, LHP (age 22)
15. Brett Harker, RHP (age 22)
16. Scott Mitchinson, RHP (age 22)
17. Drew Carpenter, RHP (age 21)
18. Alex Concepcion, RHP (age 23)
19. Jesus Sanchez, C (age 19)
20. Jarrod Freeman, RHP (age 19)

B-

21. Lou Marson, C (age 20)
22. Kyle Drabek, RHP (age 19)
23. Heitor Correa, RHP (age 17)
24. Michael Bourn, OF (age 24)
25. Pat Overholt, RHP (age 22)
26. Mike Costanzo, 3B (age 23)
27. Will Savage, RHP (age 22)
28. Mike Zagurski, LHP (age 24)
29. Jeremy Slayden, OF (age 24)
30. Carlos Monasterios, RHP (age 21)
31. Darren Byrd, RHP (age 20)
32. Matt Olson, RHP (age 20)
33. Garret Hill, RHP (age 22)
34. Reymond Cruz, RHP (age 23)

C+

35. Jason Jaramillo, C (age 24)
36. Justin Germano, RHP (age 24)
37. Andrew Cruse, RHP (age 22)
38. Sam Walls, RHP (age 23)
39. Jason Donald, SS (age 22)
40. Zach Cline, RHP (age 23)
41. Antonio Bastardo, LHP (age 21)
42. Gus Milner, 1B (age 22)
43. Charlie Yarbrough, 1B (age 22)
44. Jacob Dempsey, OF (age 23)

C

45. Tim Kennelly, C (age 20)
46. TJ Warren, OF (age 19)
47. Rob Roth, RHP (age 19)
48. Nick Evangelista, RHP (age 24)
49. Darin McDonald, OF (age 19)
50. Michael Dubee, RHP (age 21)
51. Quintin Berry, OF (age 22)
52. Justin Blaine, LHP (age 22)
53. Nate Johnson, RHP (age 24)

C-

54. Greg Golson, OF (age 21)
55. CJ Henry, SS (age 21)
56. Welinson Baez, 3B (age 21)
57. Dominic Brown, OF (age 19)
58. Michael Durant, 1B (age 20)
59. Ronald Hill, RHP (age 24)
60. Derrick Mitchell, SS (age 20)
61. Maximo De La Cruz, RHP (age 21)
62. Derick Griffith, RHP (age 24)

D+

63. Fidel Hernandez, SS (age 20)

D

64. Tim Moss, 2B (age 25)
65. Jermaine Williams, OF (age 20)

And there you have it folks, my Top 65 list. I’ll do mid-season grades for the kids in full season ball, and then at the end of the year do a recap of the list plus grades for those in short season.

Today is the final day of new prospect grades. I’m going to go back and go over all of the past grades, see if anything needs adjusting, and then tomorrow, I’ll do a recap of all the grades, breaking them down in tiers. If you feel like I missed anyone, please drop me a line in the comments or via email so I can grade those players before doing my recap.

Williams, Jermaine, OF (age 20) Grade = D

Williams, the Phillies 7th round pick in 2005, looks like a complete bust. Considered a raw project, he debuted with a .603 OPS in 2005, but completely bombed in 2006, hitting .079 with a .114 OB% and an .092 slugging %. I can’t even put into words how bad those numbers are, but if I did use words, they’d have to be censored. As he only turns 20 in March, I guess it’s not the end of the road yet, but really, what can we even expect from him in 2007?

2007 Outlook: Grim. Bad. Not good. Those are the words I’d use to describe his 2007 outlook. Who knows, he might turn it around, but don’t count on it. He’ll be somewhere in short season ball, probably a 3rd year in the GCL.

Carlos Monasterios, RHP (age 21) Grade = B

Monasterios, acquired in the Bobby Abreu deal, is another in the line of young arms to watch in 2007. Though already 20 years old, Monasterios was pitching in the US for the first time in 2006, and put up solid numbers overall between the GCL Yankees and the GCL Phillies teams. He pitched 45 innings, posting a 3.20 ERA, allowing 41 hits and 6 walks to go with his 35 strikeouts. Obviously, his command is the first thing to jump out at you, and his K/BB rate is outstanding for a raw pitcher. Normally I’d deduct points for him being 20 in the GCL, but because it was his first pro season, you cut him a bit of slack. I don’t have much in the way of a scouting report on him, but he does have a good fastball, by all accounts, and will just need to work on his approach to pitching and refining his secondary stuff.

2007 Outlook: Carlos just turns 21 in March, so 2007 will be his age 21 season. He’s a likely candidate to head to Williamsport, and he should remain a starting pitcher for a while until the Phillies feel he can’t handle the role.

Bastardo, Antonio, LHP (age 21) Grade = C+

Bastardo, making his US debut in 2006, pitched well, all things considered, and showed a bit of promise. The Phillies were cautious with him, allowing him to pitch only 23 innings, mostly in relief, but he allowed only 20 hits, while walking 14 and striking out 27. The walks are obviously a concern, but the K rate is solid, and he allowed fewer hits than IP in his debut, so that’s a positive. I know little about his past, and I know little about what he throws, hence my cautious grading of him, but he could prove to be a useful bullpen arm in a few years, or he could prove to be little to nothing at all.

2007 Outlook: A repeat of the GCL is likely, as he learns to harness his stuff and acclimate himself to life in the United States. His control and command will be key, but if he can retain his strikeout numbers, positive things could be on the horizon.

Let’s get to it..

(photo courtesy of PhilliesDraft.com)

Roth, Rob, RHP (age 18) Grade = C

The Phillies probably considered themselves lucky to sign Roth, their 19th round pick in 2006, because he seemed like the perfect candidate to head to college and improve his draft stock. His velocity jumped into the low 90’s in the spring, but possibly because he was in Idaho, he wasn’t heavily scouted. His debut was somewhat of a mixed bag. He only allowed 33 hits in 33.1 IP, but he allowed an eye popping 31 walks to only 24 strikeouts. Clearly, he’s very rough around the edges, but the Phillies like his arm. Because he’s only 6’1, 200lbs, it’s tough to say whether he’s going to grow a bunch more, but I suppose it is possible, especially since he just turned 18 in August.

2007 Outlook: Roth is, as you can see by his numbers, a project. He’ll likely repeat the GCL, and with a strong showing, could head to Williamsport in 2008. He gets a C now, but he could greatly improve or fall off a cliff, just like most really young, really raw prospects.

Drabek, Kyle, RHP (age 19) Grade = B-

Ah, the name everyone has been waiting for. I might be Drabek’s biggest fan, but his debut doesn’t warrant more than a B- grade, in fact, on straight numbers, he warrants much lower, but I had to make adjustments there. You all know about the 7.71 ERA, the 33 hits and 11 walks in 23 innings. However, you also know that he threw a TON of pitches in his senior season, that he signed a little later in the summer, and that he had a ton of baggage tossed on his back before he even played an inning of pro baseball. For all of the negatives we heard about him, in the last four months, it’s been mostly positives. He reportedly responded to instruction during the FIL, and there have been numerous cliche-filled articles written about his promising spring training and his experiences with Jamie Moyer and others. I, personally, wasn’t worried about the off the field stuff, but others were. If he truly has put that stuff behind him, or at least way onto the back burner, then his grade should greatly improve in 2007.

2007 Outlook: It was originally thought he’d start 2007 in extended spring training and then go to Williamsport, but it now looks like he’ll likely start at Lakewood in the rotation, barring some unforeseen disaster in the next month or so. If he is focused and ready to show everyone what he can do, he’s capable of a big season.

Correa, Heitor, RHP (age 17) Grade = B-

If you don’t recognize the name Heitor Correa, make a mental note. Looking at his 2006 GCL numbers, they don’t look inspiring; 23 IP, 7.83 ERA, 35 H, 7 BB, 14 K. But, when you add the qualifier “turned 17 on August 25th”, it makes a bit more sense. Correa put up most of those numbers at age 16, a pretty remarkable thing really. Correa was signed as an amateur free agent out of Brazil and was brought to the GCL to work with pitching coach Carlos Arroyo. At 16, he’s already 6’3, 200lbs, and has room to grow a bit more. And here’s the best part, he can already hit 91-92 mph, though not consistently. The Phillies love his intelligence (trilingual) and arm, and think he could be something special. He’ll repeat the GCL at age 17, and I have a feeling all of his peripheral numbers will look better at this time next season.

2007 Outlook: Caution is the optimum word here. Correa is the equivalent of a high school junior, so there is no reason to rush him or pile a ton of innings on him. He’ll likely get about 40 innings in this season on a tight pitch count every time out. His secondary stuff is non-existent at this point, but the raw tools are there.

Another snowy Monday morning, but baseball will be here before you know it. We’re winding down the grades here, just a few more to go. Once I finish, I’m going to do some possible grade revisions, as well as go back and cover anyone I may have missed. So again, if you’ve been reading, or if you haven’t, check out all the prospect grades and let me know who I may have passed over.

Freeman, Jarrod, RHP (age 19) Grade = B

Freeman, the Phillies 11th round pick in June, had a very impressive display, and is one of those guys I’m really excited to watch in 2007. Equipped with a near perfect projectable pitching frame (say that 5 times fast), he’s already 6’3, 195 lbs and just turned 19 in November. As with most young pitchers, he’s much more projection and speculation than substance, but for his debut, he pitched very well. In 45.1 IP in the GCL, he posted a 3.38 ERA, allowing 47 hits and only 5 walks to his 37 strikeouts. His fastball was registering in the low 90’s, and he also features a good curveball and an advanced changeup, considering his age.

2007 Outlook: Because he didn’t pitch in a baseball hotbed (Utah), and because he is only 19 and still growing, the Phillies will probably be cautious with him, keeping him in extended spring training and then sending him for a repeat of the GCL or possibly to short season Williamsport.

Olson, Matt, RHP (age 20) Grade = B-

Olson, in his repeat of the GCL, showed an improvement in his already solid command, and also allowed fewer hits per 9, despite posting a higher ERA than in his 2005 debut. A 13th round draft pick in 2005, he showed solid progress this season, despite seeing his K/9 rate dip a bit from it’s already low 5.93 in 2005 to 4.57 in 2006. However, this isn’t uncommon for raw high school kids learning how to pitch as opposed to just throwing. Olson has a large 6’4, 200lb frame, and could add a bit more velocity as he continues to grow. His control is good, his hit rate dropped, but he needs to start setting up hitters and finishing them off, but that will probably come with him improving his secondary stuff and developing his curve into a true out pitch.

2007 Outlook: Olson is still learning how to pitch as opposed to throw. His fastball already sits in the low 90’s and could actually improve as he continues to add muscle to his frame. He may eventually become a reliever full time, and his power arsenal would certainly fit, but the Phillies will probably resist that temptation until his secondary pitches prove they can’t develop. After two seasons in the GCL, he’ll probably start the season in Williamsport.

More of the Jamie Moyer-Kyle Drabek relationship and some other time honored cliches in this piece, and then another nice article about Joe Bisenius and his chance at making the big league bullpen.

Also, I missed this one a few days ago, but the Phillies signed 16 year old Australian outfielder Angus Roeger. I have no idea what kind of player he’ll be, that article is somewhat vague, but the Phillies apparently like his bat. He’s 16, so we’ll check back in a few years.