All posts by giventofly41

The Lakewood Report, Week 2

4. Lakewood

lakewood2.jpg
(courtesy of Blueclaws.com)

Lakewood started off week 2 of the season on the right foot, beating West Virginia on April 9th and 10th behind strong pitching performances. After 4 shaky innings from Jarrod Freeman, the bullpen, led by Ben Pfinsgraff, clamped down on West Virigina and held on for the win. In game 2, Kyle Drabek tossed his first gem of the season, going 6 innings, allowing only 1 earned run on five hits, two walks, while striking out 4. Alex Concepcion and Justin Blaine combined for 3 scoreless innings to take Lakewood to a 3-2 record. The third game of the series was rained on Wednesday, and when play resumed Thursday, things didn’t go quite as well, with Lakewood losing both ends of the double header, largely due to shaky bullpen work from the Hill’s, Garet and Ronald. Lakewood traveled to Hickory for what was to be a 4 game series, winning the opener 9-5, with Ben Pfinsgraff notching his second win of the week in relief of Darren Byrd. The next three games, however, were canceled due to wind and rain.

So, Lakewood’s defense of their Sally League crown has begun with a 4-4 record, and they sit in 5th place, 2.5 games behind first place Greensboro in the Northern Division. There have been plenty of positives as well as a few questions left to be answered. Kyle Drabek, who’s first appearance came in relief, was excellent in his first start, and has 7 strikeouts in 7 innings against only 2 walks. Edgar Garcia has two good starts under his belt, having allowed only 3 ER in 12 innings with an 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Adrian Cardenas, thrust into full season ball, is hitting .333 in 27 AB, and in Week 2 alone, he hit .467. Maybe the most pleasant surprise has been Gus Milner, an outfield prospect that really wasn’t on anyone’s radar after a disappointing debut last year. Milner’s overall line .387/.424/.548 in 31 AB is an impressive start, and in Week 2, he 2 doubles and 2 stolen bases as well. Even CJ Henry, who struggled mightily last season, has shown some promise, with 5 extra base hits and 3 stolen bases so far.

Their are two things to keep on eye on however, that aren’t looking quite as positive. Darren Byrd and Jarrod Freeman, both promoted to full season ball this year, have struggled a bit. Byrd has allowed 7 ER in 8.1 innings, with 7 walks and 8 strikeouts, and Freeman has allowed 5 ER in 5.2 innings, but does have 7 strikeouts. Not every arm is going to pan out, and it is only two starts, but keep on eye on these two and see how they develop and handle the jump to a full season league. The other disconcerting aspect of not only Lakewood, but of all the Phillies affiliates, is the general lack of plate discipline being shown. In 274 AB as a team, they’ve managed to draw a grand total of 22 walks, with 5 of those going to Julian Williams and 4 to Tuffy Gosewich, neither of whom are really great prospect material. I’m not sure if it’s an organizational teaching method or not, because the big league club clearly doesn’t have a problem drawing walks. Again, keep an eye on this trend and see if it improves or gets worse as the season progresses.

Lakewood returns back home this week for a 3 game series against Delmarva and then they welcome in Hagerstown.

Nice Rashad Taylor article

2006 DFE's

Thanks to e-mailer BC for sending me this article on Rashad Taylor, our top draft and follow prospect. The article talks about the hardships Taylor had to overcome as a child, losing his father when he was only 5, as well as his impressive run this season at Skyline Community College. Taylor also hinted that he’s looking for “Top 12 round money” from the Phillies if he’s to sign, or he’ll return to Skyline next season. Top 12 round money really doesn’t tell you much, as only the first four rounds or so garner big bonuses. A large bonus for a DFE is normally in the 750k to 1 million range, so if Taylor is looking for something in the 250K to 500K range, I think he’d be more than worth it. The Phillies have until June 1st to make a decision.

Also, check out Jeff Crupper’s Threshers Blog, very well done. I’ve added a permanent link to the right in the blogroll. Nice work Jeff.

Who’s Hot, Who’s Not, Week 2

Other Stuff

Two weeks (actually 1.5) in the books, let’s see who’s hitting their stride and who’s still not quite getting it in gear.

Sizzling

Dan Brauer: 11 IP, 1 ER, 7 H,  5 BB, 12 K, 2 W
Andrew Carpenter: 11 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 1 W
Lou Marson: 21 AB, .381/.381/.619, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI
Jason Donald: 20 AB, .400/.400/.500, 2 2B, 5 R
Adrian Cardenas: 15 AB, .467/.467/.533, 1 2B, 1 R, 3 RBI
James Happ: 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 3 BB, 6 K

Frozen

Joe Bisenius: 1.2 IP, 37.50 ERA (5 ER), 4 H, 2 BB, 0 K
Mike Costanzo: 23 AB, .174/.240/.217, 1 2B, 1 R, 2 RBI
CJ Henry: 18 AB, .167/.286/.278, 2 2B, 2 R, 3 RBI
Carlos Carrasco: 3.1 IP, 20.32 ERA (7 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K
Darren Byrd: 4.0 IP, 11.25 ERA (5 ER), 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K

Phillies add JD Durbin

Transactions

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Pat Gillick has to be getting desperate now. It seems every day, we see a new waiver claim. I guess on one hand, it’s positive, because he’s still trying to fix our shaky bullpen, but on the other hand, how likely is it that a guy plucked off waivers is going to save our fledging pen? Well, JD Durbin is the latest name to enter the mix, as the Phillies claimed him off waivers from the Red Sox. Durbin, who’d been in the Minnesota system his entire 6 year career prior to 2007, has had some success, notably in 2006 at AAA Rochester, where he posted a 2.33 ERA in 16 starts. He has solid K numbers, as seen in his career 8.18 K/9 rate in the minors, but of course, there’s always a catch, that comes in the walk rate, which has been downright ugly since 2004, as he’s walked 145 guys in 300 innings….not a good ratio. Durbin used to touch 100 MPH with his fastball, but clearly he didn’t always know where it was going. He was ranked the Twins 10th best prospect in the 2007 Baseball America handbook, with his velocity (still mid 90’s) and his power curveball as assets. Over the last three seasons, he’s missed time, largely due to a partially torn labrum in 2004, but he appears to be healthy. If the Phillies are planning to use him in relief exclusively, I guess it can’t hurt. But who goes? As far as I can tell, no one in the current bullpen has options remaining. Do they try to pass Condrey through waivers? Is a trade in the works? We’ll see.

Interview with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus

* Interviews

I’ve had the chance to pick the brain of Kevin Goldstein, minor league guru over at Baseball Prospectus, and he was kind enough to take some time and answer some Phillies related minor league questions. Kevin’s coverage at BP is quite extensive, and if you aren’t a subscriber, I’d highly recommend it, as the site has a plethora of baseball information, covering just about every aspect of the game. I’ll add a tag on the left side to keep this interview at the top in case you’d like to come back and check it out at a later date and don’t want to dig to find it. Thanks again Kevin for taking the time!

PhuturePhillies: What is your overall impression of the Phillies system right now? They’ve obviously graduated a ton of major league talent in the last 5 years, with guys like Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard, but they appear thin in the minors, especially in AA and AAA.

Kevin Goldstein: Yes, they’ve graduated some fine, fine players, but taken as a snapshot right now, the system is pretty bad – I ranked them 26 th in my most recent organizational rankings. If there is any good news I ranked their pitching talent 12th in the minor leagues, but their hitting talent 29 th. You’re also correct in saying that there’s not a lot of upper-level talent. They have a good number of toolsy high-ceiling guys at the lower levels, and they need some of them to live up to their promise.

PP: Would you say it’s been bad luck or bad planning to explain the Phillies lack of top echelon talent in the system? It seems the Phillies have taken their share of “toolsy athletes” that haven’t learned to play baseball.

KG: I do think they’ve had some draft mistakes, and they’ve also lost a good share of picks by signing free agents. I don’t have a problem with them taking tooly guys, that’s where a lot of stars come from – you just have to accept the inherent risk.

PP: In your recent “State of the Systems” review of the Phillies, you mentioned you were high on D’Arby Myers, a personal favorite of mine. When you look at him physically and toolswise, and then look at his performance in the GCL, what do you see in his future for the next few years?

KG: Obviously you have to love the body and the athleticism and what he did in his debut, but he’s anything but perfect. He’s still very raw, particularly in his approach. In two years he could be a top 50 prospect, in two years he could be all but forgotten about – he’s one of those guys.

PP:. On the flip side, you aren’t as high on Edgar Garcia, another favorite of mine. You cite lack of strikeouts, but how much does his solid command and feel for his changeup offset the lack of K’s? Could we see him develop more as he learns to pitch instead of throw?

KG: It offsets it a bit, but not a ton for me. There’s still plenty of ceiling in Garcia, he’s just not there yet. I want to see a consistent, dependable, go to out pitch. In general, great pitchers put up monster K rates in the minors – you have to blow people away. I’m not saying Garcia can’t become that pitcher, I’m just saying he’s not there yet.

PP: Of the guys not mentioned in your latest writeup and your Phillies top 10, who is the one sleeper we should pay close attention to this year?

KG: I like Jason Donald much better than his disappointing junior year at Arizona would indicate. He’s one of those players where the biggest strength is a lack of a discernable weakness. Not a star by any means, but should get there.

PP: What are your thoughts on Jason Jaramillo? Since being drafted, most Phillies minors fans always assumed he’d be a .250 or so hitter, but with great defense. Has that changed? I’ve read some reports that his defense was spotty in the AFL. The Phillies still seem high on him.

KG: I think that’s an accurate assessment of him. Most scouts I’ve spoken to see him as a solid defender, with a good arm. I think the majority of his career will be as a backup because of the bat, but he’ll start here and there.

PP: What can you tell us about Latin American signing Freddy Galvis? And is it spelled Galvis or Galvez? I’ve seen both.

KG: It’s Galvis. He’s an absolutely lights-out defender, with not only remarkable fundamentals for such a young players, but the athleticism to make the spectacular plays as well. Just a special, special player. Notice how I haven’t said anything about the bat? There’s a reason for that. That said, he’s very young, and has the tools to hit, he just needs to figure it out.

PP: One of the more intriguing young arms for me is Heitor Correa, who made his GCL debut last year at age 16. Can you give us any insight on him?

KG: Him I have little on. He seems like a nice find for the Phillies as a young kid who can throw hard, but it’s much easier to get info on the Dominican and Venezuelan amateurs, not so easy to get info on Brazilians.

PP: Though he’s had a rough spring, it seems that James Happ has done more to strengthen his prospect stock than most in the Phillies system. The knock on him seemed to be lack of velocity, but he’s now in the 90-92 range, so does that make him more a middle of the rotation prospect or still on the back end/bullpen?

KG: Well, he sure looked good in his AAA debut with five no-hit innings. I think 90-92 is a little generous. Not that he can’t throw that hard, but more realistically he’s 88-92. I do think he’s a solid middle-to-back starter and innings eater – but that’s not a bad thing. Based on this winter, those guys are worth 7-10 million a year, no?

PP: I wanted to ask you a question more related to the process of looking at a prospect. I know you value statistics and numbers, but also the virtue of tools. How do you factor those together, roughly speaking? Is it, say, a 60/40 mix? Is it different in each case? It seems like the “tools” guys more often than not never fully develop, and we know that all too well with guys like Jeff Jackson and Greg Golson. At some point, doesn’t performance on the field trump what you MIGHT be able to do, based on your arm strength, or speed?

KG: It’s totally different in each case – it’s always something that you have to deal with on a player-to-player basis. Jeff Jackson is obviously the example of the kind of tools guy that busts out, but always remember that EVERY high school pick is based on tools, not statistics. Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Delmon Young, etc. – all those guys where drafted based on their tools just like Jeff Jackson.

PP. Of the guys who won’t be regulars come opening day, who do you think has the chance to be the biggest impact player for the big league club this year? Joe Bisenius? Happ?

KG: This year only, I think you’re really looking at a pretty set squad. As it is, the Phillies can’t find enough innings for the starters, so I can’t see Happ getting much more than a looky-loo. Bisenius might be the right call.

PP: Give us one guy that you have a gut feeling on, but can’t really back it up with numbers or tools, either good or bad.

KG: Michael Dubee.

Minor League Action, 4/13

Box Score Recap

Lakewood @ Hickory, 7:05
Darren Byrd (?)

Clearwater v Lakeland, 7:05
Carlos Carrasco
Reading @ Altoona, 6:35
Kyle Kendrick

Ottawa off.

Phillies claim Michael Garciaparra

Transactions

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In continuing the Phillies tradition of always acquiring the less talented brother in a baseball family, the Phillies added Michael Garciaparra off waivers from Seattle. Garciaparra has been placed on the Reading roster, and will likely be the team’s everyday second baseman. Originally a supplemental 1st round pick in 2001, Michael has never developed any kind of power, but has a good batting eye (31 BB to 47 K last year) and makes contact, as he hit .331 in 593 AB at A+/AA/AAA from 2005 to 2006. The problem is, he only had 39 XBH over that span, so he possesses no real power to speak of. However, if he plays well this year, he could be a nice option to back up the middle of the infield next year. A nice move that costs relatively little and has no real downside.

The Reading Report, Week 1

6. Reading

The Reading Phillies are coming off a 71-69 campaign in 2006, and with a handful of quality pitching prospects, are hoping to improve on that record in 2007. The composition of the R-Phillies is largely made up of minor league veterans and non-prospects, so my attention to the team might be a bit less this season than that of Lakewood and Clearwater, which contain many more actual prospects. Nevertheless, Reading will feature some interesting pitching, as well as Mike Costanzo’s bat at 3B, and should have some new arrivals from Clearwater at some point during the season. Reading continues to sit near the top of the Eastern League in terms of attendance, which speaks to the quality atmosphere at games. While they should be able to maintain their performance of last season and possibly improve on it, winning the league will be tough, as many teams like Akron, Binghamton and New Britain will again be filled with promising prospects.

The lineup for the R-Phillies will consist of two real prospects in Javon Moran, a former Phillie farmhand reacquired in the Jeff Conine trade. Moran, now 24, will be on the old side to be considered a bona-fide prospect at AA, but he brings a lot of speed, good contact skills, and solid center field defense, and with a big season, could bring his prospect status up a bit. The other main draw in the lineup is 3rd baseman Mike Costanzo. Costanzo, who had a so-so 2006 campaign at Clearwater, is now thrust into the middle of the Reading lineup and into the spotlight of 6,000+ fans every night. There were reports that Costanzo was “taking AB’s off” last season, but he shouldn’t have to worry about a lack of atmosphere this season. Juan Tejeda, a fringe player, will play 1st, and newly acquired Michael Garciappara will likely see time at 2B, trying to resurrect his career. The pitching rotation features free agent pickups Landon Jacobsen and Heath Totten, and they will be joined by legit prospects Kyle Kendrick and Matt Maloney. Anderson Garcia, picked up off waivers from the Mets, will likely get the majority of the save opportunities early, and at age 25, he’ll need a big season to be considered prospect material heading into next year.

Reading opened at home with a three game sweep of Harrisburg, with Jacobsen, Maloney and Key picking up wins and Anderson Garcia netting 2 saves in as many tries. Mike Costanzo started off on the right foot, homering in his first two AA games. After dropping the first two games of the series to Bowie, the R-Phillies managed to salvage a game behind the second strong performance of the season from Landon Jacobsen. Javon Moran has been the story so far offensively, with a line of .417/.462/.625, adding 5 doubles and 4 stolen bases. Costanzo, after the hot start, has cooled significantly, hitting only .167 in 24 AB, but more troubling, with 0 walks and 12 strikeouts. Garcia is 3 for 3 in saves, with a 2.25 ERA in 4 games, the only runs given up in a non-save situation. Kendrick and Maloney both had respectable debuts. The progress of Moran will be interesting to watch, as he could work himself into a midseason promotion to Ottawa, and Kendrick, who will have to be added to the 40 man at the end of the season, could emerge as the ace of the staff. Reading finishes out their week with a four game series in Altoona, where they’ll run into one of the best prospects in the game, CF Andrew McCutchen.

Minor League Action, 4/12

Box Score Recap

Lakewood @ West Virginia, Lakewood loses 6-5.

Berry: 0/5
Donald: 1/4, 1 R
Gosewich: 2/4, 1 2B
Milner: 2/4, 1 R, 1 SB
Henry: 1/4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 SB

Monasterios: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Dubee: 1.2 IP, 2 K
G Hill: 1.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 K
Lakewood @ West Virginia, Lakewood loses 3-2.

Berry: 1/3, 1 R
Donald: 2/3, 1 R, 1 RBI
Cardenas: 2/3
Milner: 0/3
Henry: 0/3

Garcia: 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K
R Hill: 1.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB
Clearwater v Tampa, Clearwater wins 4-2.

Golson: 0/4
Harman: 0/4
Slayden: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 R
Marson: 1/4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI

Outman: 4/1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
Savage: 1.1 IP, 1 BB, 1 K
Harker: 1.0 IP, 2 K, SAVE (1)
Reading @ Altoona, Reading wins 7-6.
Matt Maloney (0-0, 3.60 ERA) v Kip Bouknight (0-0, 18.00 ERA)

Moran: 2/4, 2 R, 1 3B, 1 BB
Costanzo: 2/4, 1 BB

Maloney: 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K
De La Cruz: 0.1 IP, 1 H
Cameron: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 K
Ottawa @ Buffalo, Ottawa loses 2-1.
Brian Mazone (0-0, 0.00 ERA) v Josh Stanford (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Jaramillo: 1/3, 1 BB

Mazone: 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K

The Clearwater Report, Week 1

5. Clearwater

In the first edition of the Clearwater affiliate report, we’ll look at the composition of the roster, the potential excellence of the pitching staff, and how the team can make a run at the Florida State League title.

Last season, the Threshers posted a 67-72 record, which doesn’t look great until you consider the fact that they were an unbelievably bad 41-95 the year before. Everyone that follows the minor leagues will tell you that the records of the minor league affiliates aren’t important, that it is all about player development, and they are correct. However, everyone likes to win, at whatever level they are at, whether it be little league or the International League, and losing hurts, regardless of the situation. Last year’s team was in a state of flux, as two of their better pitches, James Happ and Zach Segovia, as well as their best reliever Joe Bisenius, were promoted to Reading mid season. This year, the staff is loaded from top to bottom, starting with the Phillies #1 ranked prospect, Carlos Carrasco.  Following Carrasco are 2006 draft picks Andrew Carpenter and Dan Brauer, as well as rising prospect Josh Outman, and the rotation is rounded out by Patrick Overholt, a reliever being converted to a starter this season. In the bullpen, Brett Harker is likely the closer, with lefty Mike Zagurski setting up and Will Savage also getting into some high leverage situations. The offensive core is led by Brad Harman at 2B, looking for a rebound season after a terrible 2006, outfielder Jeremy Slayden, catcher Lou Marson, and CF Greg Golson.

In the early going, the lineup has fluctuated a bit, but Golson, Harman and Slayden have hit 2-3-4 a few times, with Marson hitting 5th or 6th. Chris Coste had been rehabbing in Clearwater, and was batting in the middle of the order, and Freddy Garcia is doing his rehab here as well, plus an appearance from Jon Lieber has meant a changing lineup/rotation. Once the season starts to take off, Golson, Harman, Slayden and Marson should consistently be in the 2-5 spots every night in some order. Welinson Baez has been hitting lower in the lineup, likely to try and put him in low pressure situations as he adjusts to High A after struggling at Lakewood. Slayden is likely the first of this group to be promoted, as he’s still too old for this league. On the pitching side, Outman probably has the ability to move up to Reading first depending on how he pitches.

Clearwater opened the season with 4 games against Dunedin, going 2 and 2. Carrasco produced a nice 5 inning debut, while Brauer and Carpenter combined on a 9 inning, 2 run performance. Josh Outman, pitching in relief in his first appearance due to a Jon Lieber rehab appearance, struggled mightily, allowing 7 ER in 2.1 IP, with 3 BB and 3 K. It may have been nerves, or it may have been because he was pitching in relief, something he isn’t accustomed to doing, but we shouldn’t worry too much about it. Once the rehab assignments are done with, he’ll be back in the starting rotation and should be able to get comfortable. Offensively, Jeremy Slayden is off to a solid start, hitting .533 in 15 AB. Greg Golson also has come out of the gates strong with a .389 BA in 18 AB, with 4 extra base hits and 2 SB. This week, Clearwater will play 4 games against a good Tampa team, and then 3 games against Lakeland, all at home.