Phillies Discussion (9/21/2026)

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Here’s a new Phillies Discussion. 

We enter the final week of the season with the Phillies on the verge of clinching a wild card berth.  Also up for grabs is playoff seeding.  Currently, Chicago and San Diego are a game ahead of the Phillies.  In the event of a tie or  ties, Chicago holds head-to-head advantages over both the Phillies and San Diego.  The Phillies hold the head-to-head advantage over San Diego.  In the unlikely event of the Diamondbacks closing ground with the Phillies, Arizona would hold an advantage in the second tie breaker, division record.

Important 3-game series during the final week include:

  • September 22-24, 2026
    • Milwaukee at Philadelphia
    • Miami at Chicago Cubs
    • San Diego at Los Angeles
    • Arizona at Colorado
  • September 25-27. 2026
    • Tampa at Philadelphia
    • Chicago Cubs at Boston
    • Arizona at San Diego

The Phillies schedule is harder on paper since their opponents have the best records within their leagues.  However, there are those who speculate that their opponents will be resting players down the stretch.  Milwaukee is still playing for home field advantage through the NLCS.  Both teams will have time to rest during the wild card series so I find that hopeful but not likely.  Even if they do sit some players, the Phillies have long shown the ability to play down to the level of their competition.  I expect they will start the playoffs on the road, opponent as yet undetermined.

This should post automatically at 10:PM EST on September 21th.  Comments on the previous discussion should automatically close at the same time.

Important Dates

  • December 1, 2026 (11:59 p.m. ET): MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.

 

 

42 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion (9/21/2026)”

  2. Let the cubs play the Padres and take our chances with the Braves. 3 game series I will take it do or die. Sale may be good one but Phils will have a couple good starters as well. Padres have dodgers and diamondbacks but how motivated will the Dodgers be.

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  3. It starts tonight, Wheeler vs May. Phillies need to win this game to set a tone for the series. If Wheeler gets bombed, it’s not a good omen.

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  5. Is it weird that I am happy for Pete Alonso? I generally hate Mets players but I always liked him.

    I thought if Middleton was serious he would have allowed DD to sign he and Schwarber.

    And given that BH was somehow moved to play RF when they traded Arraez I have to assume he would have done so for Alonso a RHB capable of 40 HRs to hit behind him.

    Which leads me to the luck the Padres found in Ty France. Every year DD looks for a reclamation project and they just kind of flame out. The Padres landed France on a minor league deal and he somehow managed to hit 301 with 21 HRS over 146 OPS+.

    A little luck goes a long way in the business

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    1. Speaking of luck……Junior Caminero received a signing bonus of $87,500 when he originally signed with Cleveland as an international free agent in July 2019…….and the Rays acquired Junior Caminero from the Cleveland Guardians Nov, 2021, in exchange for right-handed pitcher Tobias Myers. Rays als sent Junior to Australia winter ball at 18-years old…..and he raked there. Now there is some luck.

      https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=camine000jun

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      1. Yeah, probably some combination of luck and good scouting – like the Cristopher Sanchez acquisition. Sure we got lucky, but Klentak and his team did a great job of sniffing out that opportunity and I was totally wrong about this trade – you were right, Matt Klentak!!

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    2. I think we should hand out an annual award that goes to the Phillies’ annual “buy low” early 30s position player who the team thinks will, but in fact never does, have a bounce back year. I would call it the “Jenkins Award”, in honor of Geoff Jenkins, who was signed in 2008 to play the outfield as a bounce back candidate and who was a -0.3 WAR player in his only year as a Phillie and ultimately lost his spot to Jayson Werth. This year, the Jenkins award goes to Adolis Garcia. As unfortunate as his injury was, it prompted the team to acquire/promote Derek Hill and Bryan De La Cruz, each of whom make around major league minimum and each of whom have been much better than Garcia.

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  6. Congratulations to the Reading Fightin Phils who are Eastern League champions. I’m expecting the following players to start the season at Lehigh:

    The locks: Heredia, DeMartini, Miller, Rincon

    Very Likely: Graves, Jimenez, Nori, Ware, Ricketts

    50-50: Wood, Bowker, Pan, Escobar, McGowan

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    1. What’s the contract of Heredia? He feels like he’s been here a long time.

      The rest seems likely. Sprinkle in AAAA players and they may be interesting.

      Within the realm of possibility that some of those players push for a major league spot. Unlikely but I could see Graves push with a good spring.

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      1. I believe Heredia is rule 5 eligible so he will need to be added.

        3B is the only position that’s really open and I don’t think the Phillies will sign a stopgap. So it’s possible that Miller might get a crack at it. The other players will likely make their debuts due to injuries.

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  7. Wheeler’s seven straight strikeouts to open the game broke the team record of six, set by Brandon Duckworth on August 5, 2001 against the Dodgers.

    ….man , where has the time gone……back then I thought Ducky was going to be the guy, the next ace.

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  8. Lhv hope next year some real young prospect. No hoping for a miracle that a Kemp or Kielboom becomes a prospect. No more 28 yr non prospect. Starting games. Miller , rincon, escobar with nori in outfield. That’s something to get excited about. Wood Bowker, starting rotation

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    1. I generally agree and I’m going to keep beating the DeMartini drum – he has been outstanding in AA this year once he got healthy. If he really is a plus fielder as we are told he is, he is one of the best under-the-radar prospects we’ve had in years because he hits, he hits for power and he gets on base. Don’t sleep on this guy.

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  9. 3 more wins from 5 games remaining. Rays taking care of business last night hopefully means the pedal is off the metal for the final series.

    The pundits don’t seem to think its a big deal to have a home WC series but I do. Not that we can’t win on the road but that its just great for the city.

    The Cubs go on the road to Boston after the Marlins not sure if Boston is playing for anything. Most teams that have locked down a playoff spot will be aligning their pitching for the Playoffs.

    Either way you slice it it still is the best reality TV you can find.

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    1. Home field advantage is a really big deal, but as I think about it, being able to start Wheeler and Sanchez and hopefully Luzardo, if necessary, is a bigger deal – but not by that much when you have someone as hot as Nola as your 3/4. The hope is that this is decided one way or another by Saturday so Wheeler doesn’t have to pitch the last game.

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  10. So I was first row last night at Reading, literally the two closest seats to where the players would come out of the dugout to the on deck circle. Pretty cool to watch the celebration from their perspective. Wasn’t close to being sold out being a cold rainy school night in September, but my friend kept commenting that no one was on their phones and for the most part everyone was super into the game. Usually minor league games are kid friendly and a cheapish night out for the family, but a great vibe inside last night.

    Gage Wood was a total fanboy in the dugout, turning and watching the crowd in the 9th inning. Before Demartini’s 3 run HR, Ricketts called him back from the on deck circle and reminded him something about the pitcher who had just entered the game. I couldn’t hear exactly what he said, but they were definitely onto something from a scouting report and it showed.

    Couple notes:

    I love Aidan Miller’s swing. Clean, compact, and loads well. He had 3 hits. I don’t love the lazy E5 throw he made that gave up a run. Turner-itus is contagious.

    Nori’s swing seems very long/slow. I’ve read some comps to Dykstra and I don’t see it at all. He had 3 hits.

    Escobar was clearly struggling against older competition. Just waving at curveballs down/away, missing 90mph fast balls, etc. One of his hits was a bloop.

    I think Ricketts can be a MLB catcher; besides the grand slam he seemed solid defensively and had a few quick throws on steals. Certainly can bring the good vibes as well as Stubby, but TBD if he can pitch the 9th inning in a 12-1 game though.

    Rincon didn’t stand out to me at all. Barreled up his only hit. Has a weird low throwing angle that needs to be addressed before a runner comes in standing up.

    Heredia was bigger than I expected and had a few rips.

    Bullpen game = 7 pitchers in 9 innings. Graves and Pan impressed me. Glad to see Pan throwing upper 90s coming back from his surgery.

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    1. Nice – thanks. You noted DeMartini hit a big homer – what were your observations of him both at the plate and in the field?

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      1. DeMartini DH’d last night so I didn’t get to see him in the field. Pretty stacked lineup with Miller at 3B, Rincon at SS, Escobar at 2B. Not sure if I remember a Reading team with this many offensive prospects since the Hoskins/Cozens administration with JP Crawford, Roman Quinn, Alfaro, etc.

        Had two walks and worked a few deep counts. His OPS is .900+ in Reading. He’s listed at 5’11, I would have guessed he was taller than that but he’s pretty lanky.

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    3. I’m sure it was a blast being there. DeMartini actually hit a slam as did Ricketts earlier. Two grand slams in a championship clinching game. That can’t have happened too often before. LHV should finally have a prospect filled team next year. Should be fun. I doubt however they’ll expect Miller or DeMartini to be the major league 3B to start the year.

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      1. Close to zero percent chance either Miller or especially DeMartini starts 2027 (if there is a 2027), in the big leagues. Miller could be a LATE spring call up – again, if there’s a big league season.

        Personally, I think the odds of there being any big league season are 50/50 at best and I think there’s less than a 25 percent chance of the season starting on time. This could easily be like 1994 – the year without a WS – it’s still staggering to think that this happened, but if it’s going to happen any year, it will be this year. Baseball has totally ironed out its on-field problems but it’s money and structural problems are really and MASSIVE.

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        1. They will play…eventually….my guess, July start time, truncated season like the Covid season….too much $$$ at stake for both sides, to not get a deal done. Three parties involved….owners, MLBPA and finally media.

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          1. In the NL, there’s only 1 playoff team on a low payroll: the Brewers. The DBacks, who likely won’t make the playoffs, are at $188M.

            In the AL, the Rays, Guardians, White Sox have low payrolls. But you can argue that it’s a down year for the AL and some high payroll teams stunk like the Blue Jays and the Tigers.

            I have no doubt that we will lose games and I think that it’s more than 50% that the entire season will be lost. I know that the prediction markets are pricing it at under 10% but I think that’s way too low. Owners want a cap.

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            1. Not sure they will lose the entire season…..players went on strike in Aug.,1994, over a proposed salary cap by owners……that season it wiped up to 1000 games and the post-season, it lasted into 1995, and that season was shortened before the courts stepped in. Everyone lost money, I do not think they will go to that extreme again.

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            2. Is that true on the prediction market? If so, I’m taking the over! It’s way more than a 10% chance there’s no season next year.

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  11. I was going to write that if the Phillies don’t resign Arraez and don’t agree on a contract with Bohm, they might give Carter Kieboom an invite to spring training.

    He’s batting .270 with LHV. He has struck out only 78 times in 429 PAs. Big problem is he’s only hit 7 HRs and his fielding % at 3B is .912. So, I think not.

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    1. At this point, I view Kieboom and, unfortunately, Kemp (who is probably experiencing the downward spiral of missing on an opportunity – a bounce back might be in his grasp, but maybe not), as little more than AAAA players who can play in the big leagues in an emergency – they are just taxi squad guys at this point.

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  13. Wheeler’s ERA stands at 3.06. He is due to pitch on Sunday. He will most likely follow Sanchez in game two versus (most likely) the Braves. Would you pitch him on Sunday for say, 2-3 innings to maybe get his ERA under 3 or at this point do numbers really matter? It would be nice to have the top 3 pitchers with ERAs under 3.00.

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    1. I think whether his ERA is or is not under 3 is perhaps the least relevant consideration as to whether and how long he should pitch on Sunday unless the seedings are already set by the time they start playing the game – they have much more important priorities than that little stat.

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  14. Why isn’t Stubbs catching Nola…….something is missing when JTR catches Nola…namely correct pitch calling.

    1-2 on Turang and he calls for a 2smr and wallah..it is in the RF bleachers.

    The batter prior gets run-up on the 2smr with two strikes…..does he think Turang does not notice that.

    Nola’s knuckle-curve could have been called…even if it is wasted.

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    2. So, Reuben claims since JT will be catching in the playoffs, JT & Nola need to get in synch. Pretty weak excuse, I think, considering that neither catcher can hit. So, what’s it matter who catches Nola’s game.

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  15. So Vlad Guerrero Jr got 14/500 and proceeded to give the Blue Jays 1.3 WAR in the first year. After being questioned about his subpar year, he mentioned that he was getting paid for what he did in the past, not for what he will do in the future. He also ragged about fairweather fans, who are only on your side when you do well. Pretty sure he lost some fans with those statements.

    I really didn’t want the Phillies to sign him and thankfully, he’s not the Phillies’ problem.

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  18. Realmuto went 0-4 with RISP tonight, he’s now 0 for his last 25, and his current stats are a putrid .209/.286/.336. And he’s owed 2/30. Best case, he gets maybe 2 WAR in one of the next 2 years. But who saw this coming right?

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