Phillies’ Affiliates Recap (9/26/2022)

Here is today’s result.


Lehigh Valley (75-72) lost to the Syracuse Mets, 8-5.  

Noah Skirrow (3.00) pitched four innings allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks.  He struck out three.  Vinny Nittoli (3.81) pitched two scoreless innings facing the minimum and striking out one.  Jake Hernandez (4.22) pitched one scoreless inning allowing a hit, walk, and striking out one.  Grif McGarry (0-2, 9.00) couldn’t get an out, faced 4 batters, gave up one hit, walked three, and was charged with 4 runs after leaving with the bases loaded.  Brian Marconi (4.26) blew his first save of the season allowing 3 inherited baserunners to score.  He also allowed a couple of his own runners to score as he pitched one inning, and gave up 2 runs on a grand slam and 2 other hits.

The IronPigs built a 5-2 lead after seven innings.  They opened the scoring with 3 runs in the second inning on a 2-run HR by Jorge Bonifacio and an RBI single by Ali Castillo and a throwing error on the play.  They added a run in the third on an RBI single by Rafael Marchan.  They tacked on another run in the seventh on an RBI single by Madison Stokes.

Scott Kingery (.229) went 1-6.  Darick Hall (.254) went 1-5 with a double.  Dustin Peterson (.242) went 0-3 with 2 walks.  Rafael Marchan (.235) went 2-4 with an RBI.  Jorge Bonifacio (.242) went 1-3 with a walk, HR (15), and 2 RBI.  Madison Stokes (.233) went 2-3 with 2 walks and an RBI.  Ali Castillo (.275) went 4-4 with a double and walk.

Stokes (6) and Castillo (47) each stole a base.  Castillo, Kingery, and Hall turned 2 DPs.  Marchan and Bonifacio were hit by pitched balls.


The Affiliate Scoreboard


Transactions

9/25/2022 – Jersey Shore activated LHP J.P. Woodward from the 7-day IL (I don’t know why.  Maybe he’s going to be sent to Syracuse for an appearance?)

31 thoughts on “Phillies’ Affiliates Recap (9/26/2022)

  1. I am not as high on McGarry as others. I hope to be wrong, but unless something significant changes with his command, he will not be a good MLB pitcher. The batters are just too good. They won’t swing at bad pitches. Doesn’t matter how great your stuff is. Anything can change with a prospect that has the tools that McGarry has, but until it does, he is not a major league pitcher imo.

    1. Strike rate by level in 2022 for McGarry
      Jersey Shore: 61%
      Reading: 59%
      Lehigh Valley: 55%

      If he can consistently be a 60% strike thrower, I’d think he’d find a niche. If he can somehow get to 65%, he’d be among the Top-30 strike throwers in baseball.

      So what’s the difference between 60 and 65? Over 100 pitches, it’s 5 more strikes, obviously. Coming out of the bullpen, that’s one more strike on average based on a 20-pitch outing.

      So like I said to you on Twitter, there’s still a ton of risk. There’s a ton of questions. Was his September AAA swoon because of fatigue, more disciplined hitters or just decline? Probably all three.

      But also, is there a path to get just a few pitches better to make the stuff work? I think so. But I tend to be an optimist by nature.

      1. Great stats. Bad trend. I wonder what % of those strikes are outside the zone swings. At the MLB level, hitters won’t swing as much on pitches out of the zone. I hope to be wrong with my concern. I am not writhing him off. Just concerned.

        1. v1…..87 innings has maxed him out….20 more than he ever pitched in any prior summer …..he may have just tired and began losing it.
          Besides the control issues, I would be concerned about arm or shoulder fatigue setting in.

          1. That’s fair. Again not writing him off. Just saying my concern over his command hasn’t been alleviated. Some here have suggested calling him up for the playoffs. Imo that would be a huge mistake. Imo he isn’t ready yet.

    2. v1 – you’re right. He’s not a major league pitcher – now.

      That said, I think we need to cut this guy a little break. He jumped 3 levels in a season and dominated at 2 of the 3 levels. That’s not easy to do. It is also noteworthy that he’s improved his his control/command quite a bit since college and college was, well, last year.

      I understand there is a healthy skepticism with this guy, but, overall, he’s trending in the right direction.

      And then there’s the stuff. My, oh my, the stuff. It is elite, so small improvements in control could mean massive improvements in his stats.

      I do think McGarry will conquer AAA next year and be in the majors by May or June. And he may struggle for a while in the big leagues, but the upside is astronomical with this guy if he can just improve his control a little bit.

      1. Yes, I definitely will give him the benefit of the doubt and am rooting for him. We need elite pitchers badly. so really pulling for him. I am just still skeptical that the stuff will play at the MLB level unless he learns how to command it.

        1. I think the reality is in today’s baseball, he doesn’t need to be a 7-inning guy. If he’s really good for 5, sometimes 6, innings, that’s a quality guy to anchor the back end of a rotation. But you’re absolutely right, if the command doesn’t improve, none of it matters.

        2. I think, more than anything, he needs the benefit of time as so many pitchers do. This site was all over Aaron Nola for quite a long time and I just kept telling people – yeah, his season last year was frustrating, but do you know how hard it is to strike out 223 batters in 180 innings or strike out 10 in a row? Give him time I said. And I’m saying it now about Ranger Suarez – people think he’s a disappointment. No way!! In a “down” year, he’s been a solid #3 and there’s reason to think he couldn’t improve again next year. Even great pitchers like Scherzer and Verlander had some mediocre seasons before they broke out. As for Spencer Howard, I was down on him because he had physical problems and a shoulder injury is one of the worst things that can happen for a pitcher (as shown by his difficulties in retaining his velocity over more than a few innings).

          So, with McGarry, if and when he struggles, give him time. He may need several years before he breaks through, but if the stuff is there, he’s worth the patience and the risk. The stuff is tremendous.

  2. McGarry has a very high ceiling but his floor is still not that high. I agree that he has to improve his command but he already has improved it over last year and I expect that he’ll improve it more next year and more the year after. It comes to some guys slowly, some guys quickly and some guys not at all. Let’s be patient with him. Abel has a similar need to improve his command. You could almost say every minor league pitcher needs to improve his command. But not all of them have the same upside due to their stuff. Morales is in the same boat, great stuff with shaky command. Pitching coaches really make a difference if they’re good.

    1. I am not suggesting not giving him time. I agree we should be patient. Some have suggested calling him up for the playoff this year. Imo that would be a big mistake.

      1. It’s fair, to want to see more command. It would be a huge hit to big club if he doesn’t pan out. The big club needs 2 of the big 3 arms to make it imo. What is batting avg of balls put in play off him? Hopefully that is trending in the right direction. Right now, even if you cut this K% in half, he’s averaging 1 SO per 3 batters. That would be nice for a team with defensive issues

        1. Tac3…do not put all your emotional eggs in one basket in hoping for ‘ 2 of the big 3 arms to make it’.
          There also are other pitchers that may just surprise.
          Three years ago it was Spencer Howard as da man…..and lo and behold someone with little regard named Ranger Suarez emerged, and now it looks like another in Bailey Falter.
          It would , however, be great if all three blossom into top of the rotation run-stoppers.

        2. good question. McGarry’s BABIP this year by level:
          – A+: 46 IP, .342 BABIP and 4.63 BB/9
          – AA: 32 IP, .176 BABIP and 5.51 BB/9
          – AAA: 8 IP, .294 BABIP and 10.13 BB/9

          Small samples, but he isn’t missing barrels when they make contact. He has given up 9 homers in 86 IP this year.

          This year the MLB leader in BB/9 is Dylan Cease with 3.72 BB/9. Last year Lance McCullers Jr. had a 4.21 BB/9, but he was a major outlier. second was Cease with 3.69. Only a few MLB’ers every year (like 1 or 2) have a BB/9 of more than 4.0. It is rare. There is a model where a 4.0 BB/9 can work if you have elite stuff. But there is no model for 4.6 or more. Certainly none with 5+

          And again, the concern is that the walk rate will be higher in the majors than the minors.

          1. Interesting…..you mention McCullers and Cease.
            Both are TJ surgery survivors….McCullers’ four years ago and Cease 6/7 years ago.

          2. Somebody or something helped Alvarodo ….7.7 walk rate per 9 at the start of season , 3.3 since June 16. Certainly an example in our organization for McGarry to, at the very least, inquire about.

            1. Sure. It definitely can happen. And he should be given plenty of time. 100% agreed on all points. But it has to change. Something has to click.

            2. Gelb wrote an article earlier this season about Alvarado’s improved ability to deal with stress on the mound. He began talking to a mental skills coach. Alvarado attributes his recent success to these talks. Probably similar to the guy who helped Halladay early in his career.

  3. Thanks, Hawk and all. We are sheltering in place and fully expect to survive this as we did Irma.

    Regarding McGarry. Innings and length of season are all worth considering at this point in the season.

    Another point to consider is that he pitched as a starter through the end of August. He threw out of the bullpen in his last Reading appearance and in all seven Lehigh Valley appearances.

    Since he’s only throwing one or two innings, he may be throwing harder. We all add velocity to a pitcher’s fastball when he switches from starter to reliever. Perhaps that’s in his mind. If he’s overthrowing, that could lead to inconsistencies in his pitching motion. Things he’s been doing all season to improve command might be slightly out of kilter due to an effort to throw harder. Timing, release point, and arm slot are things that could be affected. Right? Maybe?

    Just spitballing. I share the same concerns as some of you and hope he can control his stuff. Nobody wants another Phillippe Aumont.

    1. Plus there’s the change from pitching all season on 6 days rest to pitching on 6 before his first relief appearance then on 4, 2, 4, 2, 2, 1, and 2 days rest.

  4. Per MLB Trade Rumors, the Angels are calling Logan O’Hoppe up for a late-season preview. Needed to be added to the 40-man roster this winter anyway.

      1. Romus so true my kid went to his girls house, near Methodist Hospital, Broad and wolf, Guy tries to get into his car ,lucky we all carry, He had to pull his gun. Guy bolted

        1. rocco…keep your head on a swivel.
          One of the reasons why I gave gave up my Phillies season tix…..Packer Park, Hartranft is normally pretty safe to walk thru after a game, but after dark who knows who lurks in the shadows or jusy=t plain drive thru.
          That Congresswoman had her carjacked at the lakes..

    1. Thanks Rocco. Were better off than those to the south of us. Went for a drive around the immediate area. Damage and debris far less than after Irma.

      We have no power. But, as I mentioned above. We’re better off than others.

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