Finished With the Mets

The Phillies went 3-4 last week.  They won a 3-game series from the Reds and dropped a 4-game series to the Mets.

Those outcomes weren’t too bad.  The way they happened was.  They had a chance to sweep the inferior Reds and were shut out, 1-0, in game three.  They were non-competitive with their two aces on the mound and facing the Mets 4 thru 7 starters and could only manage a win with their own Triple-A starter on the mound.  I thought I detected a chink in Thomson’s armor as he seemed to manage the bullpen Sunday like the former manager.

Oh, well, gotta finish the homestand strong since 22 of their final 34 games are on the road.

With MLB’s announcement of playoff dates, the Key Dates segment has been reinstated.  Everything else below this point is an update of last week’s playoff information and the compilation of the week’s transactions.

The Phillies’ remaining schedule is encouraging.  They play 22 games in seven very winnable series – 4 v. CIN, and 3 each v. PIT, at ARI, at SF, v. MIA, v. WAS, at MIA. That takes them through September 15th.  If things go as we all expect (um, hope), the Phillies should have a comfortable cushion for a wild card berth.  They finish with 19 games in six series in which a playoff team should be able to compete favorably – 3 at ATL, 2 v. TOR, 4 v. ATL, 3 at CHC, 4 at WAS, 3 at HOU.  They are on a pace to win more than the 85-86 games I had anticipated. Eighty-eight to 90 wins do not seem out of the question, anymore.

At 66-55, the Phillies are firmly in third place in the division, 12.0 games behind the Mets and 8.0 games behind Atlanta.  Miami and Washington are effectively out of competition for anything other than positioning in the draft pool.

The East and Central Division races have become competitive.  The West is over.

The National League Wild Card race is probably down to a four-team race with the second place finisher in the Central or West Division missing the playoffs.

The Phillies are a half-game behind the Padres for the second wild card berth, with one less loss and three games in hand, plus the tie-breaker advantage.

By merit of the first tie-breaker (head-to-head), the Phillies hold an advantage over  Milwaukee (4-2), St. Louis (4-3), Los Angeles (4-3), San Diego (4-3), and Colorado (5-2).

They clinched against the Pirates (4-0) with 3 to play and Washington (10-2 with 7 to play).

They are ahead of Arizona (2-1 with 3 to play), Cincinnati (2-1 with 4 to play), and Miami (8-5 with 6 to play).

They are tied with Atlanta (6-6) with 7 to play.

They lost their season series with New York (5-14), and trail SanFrancisco (1-2 with 3 to play), and the Cubs (0-3) with 3 to play.

They have a 2-game series against the Blue Jays in September and close the season with 3 games in Houston.

The Phillies’ division record is 29-27.  Their record against the other NL divisions is 30-20.  Their interleague record, which doesn’t matter in tie-breakers, is 7-8.

Tie-breaking Procedures:

  1. Head-to-head record
  2. Intradivision winning percentage
  3. Interdivision winning percentage
  4. Best record in the final 81 intraleague games of the season
  5. Best record in the final 82 intraleague games of the season (provided the game added is not between the tied teams), and continue one game back until the tie is broken

Key Dates: some are guesstimates.  Bold dates are pretty much confirmed thru announcements, some digging, and some extrapolation from previous years. Italics are those dates that can’t yet be confirmed.

It has been a long time since we cared about playoff dates.

  • October 3, 2022: Opening Day for the Arizona Fall League
    • November 5, 2022: AFL Home Run Derby
    • November 6, 2022: AFL Fall Stars Game
    • November 11, 2022: AFL Play-in Semifinal
    • November 12, 2022: AFL Championship Game
  • October 5, 2022: Final scheduled day of the MLB regular season
  • October 11, 2022: Opening Day for the Mexican Pacific League
  • October 15, 2022: Opening Day for Dominican Winter League
  • October 22, 2022: Opening Day for the Venezuelan Winter League
  • October 28, 2022: MLB World Series begins (FOX)
    • October 7-9, 2022: NL Wild Card A/B (ESPN)
    • October 11-16, 2022: NLDS A/B (Fox or FS1)
    • October 18-25, 2022: NLCS (Fox or FS1)
  • November 2-6, 2022: Trading resumes the day after the World Series ends.
  • November 6-10, 2022: Five days after the conclusion of the World Series is the deadline for teams to make qualifying offers to their eligible former players who became free agents.
  • November 12, 2022: Start of the Colombian Winter League 
  • November 4, 2022: Opening Day for the Roberto Clemente Puerto Rico Professional Baseball League
  • November 10, 2022: Opening Day for the Australian Baseball League
  • November 16-20, 2022: Fifteen days after the conclusion of the World Series is the deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offers.
  • November 18 or 21, 2022: Deadline to submit 40-man rosters before Rule 5 Draft
  • November, 2022: GM Meetings 
  • November, 2022: Owners Meetings
  • November, 2022: MLBPA executive board meeting
  • December 1, 2022 – Non-tender Deadline – The last day for teams to offer 2023 contracts to unsigned players (pre-arb and arb eligible) on their 40-man rosters.  Non-tendered players become free agents.
  • December 4-11, 2022: The 2022 Baseball Winter Meetings will take place in San Diego, California.
    • December 9, 2022: Rule 5 Draft
  • December 9, 2022: Opening Day for the Panamanian Baseball League
  • December 15, 2022: Close of the 2021-2022 international signing period
  • January 15, 2023: Opening of the 2022-2023 international signing period
  • January, 2023: Deadline for teams and players to submit salary figures for arbitration
  • February 2-10, 2023: Caribbean Series (Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Colombia, Panama, Cuba, Curacao)
  • February, 2023: Voluntary spring training reporting date for pitchers, catchers, and players recovering from injuries
  • February, 2023: Voluntary spring training reporting date for position players
  • February, 2023: Mandatory spring training reporting date
    • February/March, 2023: First spring training games
  • March/April, 2023: Opening Day for 2023 season
  • July 2023: 2023 Rule 4 Amateur Draft
  • December 15, 2023: Close of the 2022-2023 international signing period

This gives you a place to talk about the Phillies for the week.

Here are the transactions that were reported (or uncovered) this week.

8/21/2022 – Phillies placed RHP Seranthony Dominguez on the 15-day IL retro 8/18, right triceps tendinitis
8/21/2022 – Phillies transferred RHP Corey Knebel from the 15- to the 60-day IL
8/21/2022 – Phillies optioned LHP Bailey Falter to Lehigh Valley
8/21/2022 – Phillies selected the contract of RHP Tyler Cyr from Lehigh Valley
8/21/2022 – RHP Andrew Painter assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
8/20/2022 – Phillies recalled LHP Bailey Falter from Lehigh Valley
8/20/2022 – RHP Mick Abel assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
8/18/2022 – Phillies placed RF Bryce Harper on the 60-day IL
8/18/2022 – Phillies placed OF Brandon Marsh on the 10-day IL retroactive to 8/17, left ankle sprain
8/18/2022 – Phillies claimed CF Bradley Zimmer off waivers from Toronto
8/18/2022 – Lehigh Valley activated RF Jorge Bonifacio off the Development List
8/18/2022 – Lehigh Valley activated C Rafael Marchan from the 7-day IL
8/18/2022 – Clearwater sent CF Yhoswar Garcia on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
8/17/2022 – San Francisco claimed LHP Andrew Vasquez off waivers from Phillies
8/17/2022 – Lehigh Valley activated LHP Braeden Ogle from the 7-day IL
8/17/2022 – CF Simon Muzziotti roster status changed to injured-full season
8/17/2022 – Reading transferred RHP Mike Adams to the Development List
8/17/2022 – Jersey Shore sent C Nick Matera on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
8/17/2022 – Jersey Shore activated C Anthony Quirion from the 60-day IL
8/16/2022 – Lehigh Valley placed LHP Jonathan Hennigan on the temporarily inactive list
8/16/2022 – Reading sent LHP Josh Hendrickson on a rehab assignment to Jersey Shore
8/16/2022 – Jersey Shore sent RHP Victor Vargas on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
8/16/2022 – Jersey Shore placed SS Kendall Simmons on the 7-day IL
8/15/2022 – Phillies designated LHP Andrew Vasquez for assignment
8/15/2022 – Phillies activated RHP Sam Coonrod from the 60-day IL
8/15/2022 – Phillies placed RHP Corey Knebel on the 15-day IL, right lat strain
8/15/2022 – Lehigh Valley activated LHP Erik Miller
8/15/2022 – LHP Erik Miller assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
8/15/2022 – LHP Samuel Aldegheri assigned to FCL Phillies from Clearwater
8/15/2022 – LHP Samuel Aldegheri activated from the 60-day IL
8/15/2022 – RHP Jack Dallas assigned to Clearwater from FCL Phillies
8/12/2022 – Lehigh Valley placed LHP Ryan Sherriff on the 7-day IL
8/6/2022 – FCL Phillies placed RHP Nathan Karaffa on the 60-day IL
8/5/2022 – FCL Phillies placed LHP Danny Wilkinson on the 60-day IL

309 thoughts on “Finished With the Mets

  1. I gotta’ believe somewhere in the Phillues executive suites, Dave Dombrowski has been huddled with Sam Fuld, Jorge Velandia, Ani Kilambi, and Ned Rice throwing around names of BP possibilities. I suspect Griff McGarry is at/near the top of the list. I wouldn’t be surprised if Andrew Schultz isn’t also mentioned. And I’d even consider triple jumping Andrew Baker. He looks like the second coming of Ken Giles. Almost everything has to be on the table. Andrew Painter? Probably not. But for those of you who have been telling me Painter is not an option for the 2023 opening day rotation … think again. Dombrowski has a history of racing pitching prospects thru the system. Painter may be on the Rick Porcello plan. Starting for the Tigers at 19 YO.

    1. Without a major disruption to their their 40..I think Morales and/or Sanchez will be coming up for Sep.

    2. Yes, Porcello came up to the Tigers at age 20. His WAR for the next 6 years was 2.4, 0.2, 0.3, 1.7, 2.3, 3.8 = 10.7. That was his WAR for the 6 years he was with the Tigers. Was bringing him up early worth it for the Tigers? I would say not.

      You only bring up a pitcher early when he can contribute right away and deliver meaningful WAR. You can argue that most times when a HS pitcher is up early, the majority struggle for a lot of years. Kershaw is the exception. Even Julio Urias didn’t have an above average year until year 6.

      1. Agree:
        Not sure why the need to rush the arms up.
        —Fear that the hi velo guy will have TJ issues at some point, so get him up before that happens?
        —What he did in the minors will naturally transfer to the major league level?
        Not sure ether of those two rationales warrants a quick ascension.

        1. It doesn’t matter what Porcello’s WAR was for his first 6 seasons in MLB. The point was/is Dave Dombrowski doesn’t waste bullets on MiLB innings if he feels the prospect/pitcher is capable of throwing in MLB. He’s already stated Painter (McGarry & Abel) will all be with the team in spring training, and are possibilities for the rotation in 2023. In addition, he has a history of backing that up. You may not like/agree with the concept, but I doubt Dombrowski is going to add that to the equation. If any of those three impress at spring training, they could come north. If they struggle next March, they’ll start in AA or AAA.

          Romus … I forgot about Morales. Not sure DD won’t cut some of the fat from the 40 (Cyr for example) to promote a potential difference maker for the stretch drive.

          1. What do you mean WAR doesn’t matter? Your main goal as a GM is to maximize the value of every player. Getting 10 WAR out of Porcello is not maximizing his value. If you think Porcello was ready and he wasn’t then maybe you need to look at what got you to that conclusion.

            Bringing up Painter at age 20 and having him deliver poor WAR for the next 3 years is not helping anybody. There are limited numbers for teams bringing up pitchers that young because almost nobody does it.

            And ask yourself this, DD has now been our GM for almost 2 years. His moves for the Phillies, have they mirrored what he did in the past? Has he really been “Trader Dave” or has be been more conservative?

          2. BTW, when Porcello got drafted, Scott Boras negotiated a major league contract already. So he was making way more than the minimum when he was in the minors. So it was in the best interest of the Tigers to promote him ASAP in order for the Tigers to get value back from his contract.

        2. Looking at the past 1st round picks and focusing on HS pitchers only, the last HS pitchers to even have ANY WAR was 2018 Ryan Weathers with -0.4 WAR and 2018 Matthew Liberatore with -0.2 WAR.

          Ryan Weathers had 18 starts for the Padres in 2021 as a 21 year old and delivered -0.3 WAR.

          Matthew Liberatore had 6 starts for the Cardinals this season as a 22 year old and delivered -0.2 WAR.

          The 2017 draft is where we see HS pitchers having positive WAR. Most of them made their debuts when they were 22 years old. Trevor Rogers has the most WAR with 2.5, and he’s having a brutal 2022 season.

          Even if Painter makes his debut in 2024 (as a 21 year old), he would still be one of the youngest HS pitchers to make his debut in recent memory.

          1. Guru … you seem to have an infatuation with WAR. The point wasn’t how much WAR Porcello produced. The point is Dave Dombrowski is a guy who won’t waste bullets on MiLB hitters. Painter is a better prospect than Porcello was. Look at the #s. Look at the scouting reports.
            But if you want to do the WAR thing … Porcello didn’t seem to suffer much as a 20 YO rookie (2.4 WAR). And Porcello’s WAR totals for his first, fifth, and sixth seasons (half the years you bring up) are higher than any year Zach Eflin has ever accumulated. And his fourth year total of 1.7 is the second highest WAR Eflin has ever totaled. Would another Zach Eflin help the Phillies rotation?
            And the whole 6 year window you use is a bit arbitrary. Porcello’s limited MiLB IP didn’t stop him from winning a Cy Young award (or producing some pretty good seasons) later in his career.

            I’m not guaranteeing Painter is on the opening day roster next year. But if he continues throwing the way he’s been, and is good in Clearwater next March, he’s not going to be sent down just because he’s not old enough. You don’t have to believe me. Read what the Phillies POBO had to say in the story below.

            1. First, I know what DD said in his interview. And I’ll believe it when I see it. Second, I think Porcello got promoted because of his ML contract. If that contract wasn’t looming over the Tigers, I don’t think Porcello is promoted that early.

              Your main goal as a GM is to get as much value out of the players you have. Getting 10 WAR out of Porcello is like getting 10 WAR out of Nola and then letting him walk into FA. And yes, Porcello won the cy at age 27. But you know what, perhaps if the Tigers didn’t promote him early, then that cy young season could have been for the Tigers.

              Just because DD promoted Porcello early doesn’t mean it wasn’t the wrong call. And it doesn’t mean he can’t change his mind and learn from it. I hate hindsight calls, but there’s no way you can justify Porcello’s career in Detroit as good for the Tigers. And yes, Eflin’s career in Philadelphia has been disappointing (6.8 total WAR).

              If Painter comes up in 2023 and has the same career as Porcello in Detroit and walks after 6 years, who’s going to be happy about that? And pretty sure people would be livid when he has 0.2 WAR in year 2 and 0.3 WAR in year 3.

            2. Dave Dombrowski’s main goal is to win a World Series. If he thinks Andrew Painter can help him get there in 2023 (and if he can produce at Zach Eflin levels … or better … he’d help), he’s going to add him to the rotation. I take him at his word on that. Don’t see the reason he’d want to put any extra pressure/greater fan expectation on Painter by saying what he did if he wasn’t serious. That’s me. But … to each his own.

    3. I like those prospects that you mentioned, but there is no way that DD believes that those kids will close the gap between the Mets and the Phillies. But as a stop gap to help us get into the wild card? maybe. my biggest concern with Schulz and Baker is that they both have a really high WHIP. Not only do they walk a lot of batters, they get hit too. So I don’t see them as a savor for a playoff chase.

  2. 10-9, 1-0, erasing a 6 run 9th inning deficit, with a 7 run 9th, one team has shown itself to be significantly better than the other. And, my team is the lesser one. It’s much more than missing Bryce. We need to take a minimum of 7 of the next 10.

  3. Someone mentioned on the Affiliates thread to replace Vierling with Guthrie. I liked V but after watching him in big spots I think G would be better. Vierling swings like I did after moving on to the 38+ league, reactionary. Guthrie is on a tear and plays multiple IF & OF spots. Guthrie is hitting close to .300 with 5-12 over last 80 ABs, or 1 month. Overall 10-45-.284.

      1. Not sure if the 60- day rule completely but you could move Eflin or Muzzioti to that list and promote Guthrie.

  4. I have been calling for them to promote Guthrie for a couple of months. Now an outfielder, he can also play infield (was drafted as a SS). I am a big Vierling fan but he just doesn’t seem to have it to play at a major league level. He’s okay as a platoon OF but he struggles so much against RHP.

    I only get to watch the Phillies when they play on national TV, the occasional free game on MLB or when they play the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets which my cable company offers. If I buy the MLB package for the Phillies, I’ll end up in the insane asylum by the middle of the season.

    Having written that, I watched the weekend series from 7:00 Friday night until 6:00 Sunday evening. I don’t have to tell any of you guys that it was a long lost weekend. That’s 47 hours of my life that I can never get back. Can’t complain too much because it’s not like I had anything else to do.

    1. I am starting to see the final score and if the Phillies win I go to YouTube to watch 10 minute highlight video. Much more entertaining. If possible I will follow on MLB site during game by watching “All Plays” site. If going in wrong direction, turn it off and remain sane.

  5. I left pretty early Friday morning for VA and got home late afternoon yesterday…in time to see the collapse of what seemed like a tattered and torn BP.

    Not ideal LOL. They get a lot of credit for holding their heads above water during the absence of BH since mid-June.

  6. Team fWAR:

    1 LAD….30.9
    2 NYY …26.7
    3 STL …26.1
    4 NYM…..22.7
    5 TOR….22.5
    6 HOU….22.3
    7 ATL…..20.8
    8 MIN….18.5
    9 SEA ….17.2
    10 CLE ….17.1
    11 MIL…..16.5
    12 PHI…..15.7
    13 SDP ….15.0
    14 BAL….14.8
    15 TEX …14.7

    1. Thor dropped the hammer and adapted.
      i do believe with a good hard off-season shoulder work ups, he will regain 2/3 ticks.
      Not sure what he will be looking for AAV, but Phillies should make an offer.

      1. Thor is an interesting case. Because he threw crazy hard when he was younger, he has gotten paid a lot of money for somebody that has had their share of injuries lately. He has made almost $50M already so it’s possible that money may not be the primary motivation. He could look for team fit instead. That said, I don’t think the Phillies are willing to give multiyear deals when they have 3 possible replacements at AA.

        So who would you rather give a 1 year deal to:

        Thor (~20M)
        Eflin (~10M)
        Gibson (~11M)

        And that’s assuming that they don’t sign a multi-year deal elsewhere.

        1. Eflin is going to get more than 1/10. If that’s what we offer him, he’s gone.

          The injuries are a concern, but he pitches well enough when healthy that SOMEONE is going to give him multiple years for more AAV than that.

          Gibson is on the other end of the spectrum. He won’t make a high AAV, but he’s an inning eater that will command more than a 1 year deal.

          The only reason Thor might be agreeable to another 1 year deal is because there’s a very real chance he can increase his stock for the next free agency class by getting stronger post-TJ.

          1. After listening to Thor post-game….not sure I want him back.
            If one reads body language or voice inflections, my gut feeling he is only here because he was forced by the trade.
            There was no enthusiasm in his voice, no conviction to a team play-off push.
            i really do not think he likes being a Phillie…..he probably still has that Met disdain of the Phillies deeply imbedded..
            That is just my take.
            IMO, Phillies should make him a courtesy nominal offer, and let him move on.

            1. Romus … I’m so-so on trying to bring back Noah Syndergaard for 2023, but not for the reasons you stated. I just think they can do better. As far as the other stuff (body language/voice inflections/no enthusiasm), that’s just him. No different from his time in NY. See interview below ⬇

              I’m sure he enjoyed his time with the Mets, but he also had no problem walking away from them (turning down the QO) for just a couple extra million dollars (from the LAAs).

            2. Hinkie/King Fel………..I see both your points…I stand corrected….that is his personality, the way he projects himself.

            3. I agree with you 100%. I think he’s sucking it up for the month of September and his heart is not here. I don’t really think his stuff is that good and I’m taking into account who he has beaten with his tenure here. I think there are better options than Thor for 2023.

  7. I don’t remember anyone striking out 4 times looking like Schwarber just did? These weren’t missed calls by the umpire. 4 Ks, sure, not a great night but that’s happened a lot. But, looking? I don’t remember that.

    1. I’m on emotional roller coaster with Schwarber. He makes Hoskins look consistent and I’m not sure Hall wouldn’t put up better numbers given the chance. There’s just no excuse for his batting average to be where it is. Harper has made himself an elite hitter by changing his approach when having 2 strikes, Bohm and Stott do also, it’s high time these other guys start.

  8. Here my off-season plan to catch the Mets:

    1. Re-sign Segura to 2 yrs/$28. Same deal they gave Didi two years ago.
    2. Keep Stott at SS
    3. Trade Rhys for the best SP or RP that we can get. This is not disrespectful of Rhys. He is a good player. But we need to upgrade our defense.
    4. Re-sign Thor to a 1 yr deal
    5. Do NOT re-sign Eflin or Gibson.
    6. Convert Schwarber or Castellanos to 1B. Hall makes the team too and gets ABs
    7. Sign Brandon Nimmo. 5yr/$100m He is our lead-off.
    8. Give Painter a legit shot to make the rotation. Can always add a 5th starter mid year if he isn’t ready.

    Lineup is:
    1. Nimmo (LF)
    2. Bohm (3B)
    3. Harper (RF)
    4. Castellanos (DH)
    5. Schwarber (1B)
    6. JT (C)
    7 Stott (SS)
    8. Segura (2B)
    9. Marsh/Veteran FA (CF)

    Stubbs or Sands

    1. Wheeler
    2. Nola
    3. Ranger
    4. Thor
    5. Rhys Trade or Painter or Griff

    Pen: I leave it to DD to figure it out.

    1. I like most of what you proposed. Brandon Nimmo might be my favorite player in basbeall, and I’ve been mentioning him since last winter as the most perfect fit for the Phillies in MLB. I believe DD when he mentions Painter (and Abel & McGarry) as candidates to start 2023 in the Phillies rotation. I don’t mind Syndergaard (decent chance his velo increases another year out from TJ), but Verlander would be my #1 target in free agency (even ahead of Nimmo). Also, instead of re-signing Segura to an extension, I’d just pick up the 1 yr/17M option.
      For me, FA 🎯 … Verlander or Nimmo > Trea Turner.

      1. 40 year old SPs with 3,100+ IP scare me. I would rather go with Nimmo. Ok with the 1/$17 for Segura. But 2/$28 makes the AAV $14m. So saves a little. Either way is fine w me.

      2. Also Verlander has a vesting option that passed the criteria. So he has a player option to stay in Houston. Doubt that he leaves.

        1. V1, I had a question on a basic point of your post that trading Rhys would improve our defense. Granted. Also granted that first base is one of the easier positions to fill. But I am wondering what people think would happen if Realmuto was replaced with one of the other catchers on the roster defense-wise. Part of what I am completely unable to understand is the plus or minus of the called game by catchers with pitchers. Obviously Realmuto does not really vary location between pitches but I am sure there is much more to it than that, and I don’t have any feel for it. The reason I bring this up is (and yes, I am sure Realmuto has veto power over trades) because I think he might bring back a lot more value if there was a potential trading partner he favored,

          1. My point about trading Rhys is that it allows us to move Schwarber to 1B and upgrade our LF defense materially. Rhys is a very mediocre defender. I believe that with a full off-season, Schwarber or even Castellanos could be equal there defensively.

            Imo JT is the best catcher in baseball and an exceptional defensive player. I would not trade him.

            1. Thanks for the reply and info V1. As an alternative, for a starting pitcher maybe we could trade Marsh. Isn’t he comparable to what the Cardinals traded to the Yankees for Montgomery?

        2. You don’t think Verlander could/will do better than the 1/25M vesting option if he heads to the open market? I’d be shocked if he doesn’t choose free agency, especially after he sees the money Max Scherzer got last offseason, and the dinero Jacob deGrom is likely to make when he opts out this winter.

            1. Yeah. I wouldn’t normally invest money in a 40 YO pitcher either. But this guy is not human. Verlander is an outlier. He is otherworldly. And IMO, he’s the FA who would make the greatest impact on the Phillies for 2023.

    2. I like a lot of this. Some thoughts on your thoughts:

      1. I’d rather get a good defensive SS (Turner sure but Swanson is another option) because while Stott could be good there, he would be elite at 2B.
      2. Not sure about Rhy’s trade value, but here’s a fun fact: he’s +5 DRS this year. The last time he had a positive value there was 2019. The similarity? Working with Dickerson. OAA isn’t as good though, so take that for what it’s worth, but his defense seems better this year. Not sure if Schwarber or Castellanos would be better?
      3. Feel like Thor might have done enough to earn > 1 year deal. But he seems to love working with our coaches! Maybe another pillow contract and more time to recover from TJ.
      4. I like Nimmo.

      1. Yes I did know Rhys’s +5 DRS this year before my reply. It is an outlier for his career but really nice to see.

        My desire to move Rhys is based on my desire to upgrade the OF defense. I like Rhys.

          1. That’s a cool site. I had never seen that before. But it highlights my point, Castellanos is the worst defensive OF in baseball. And Schwarber is the worst defensive LF. You simply can’t have that and beat good teams. Getting a healthy Bryce back to RF helps next year. But still need to upgrade the LF defense.

            1. Like you said earlier….moving Hoskins this off-season, gives the team the defensive flexibility to ‘hide’ one of Schwarber or Castellanos at first base for the future..
              The Phillies however may be forced to play one in LF at some point.
              Teams have done it in the past, then brought in a defensive player late in the game.

            2. I think the Phillies plan to improve the OF defense next year is 1) use Marsh everyday in CF and 2) get Harper back, who’s a good fielder, and also pushes horrible Castellanos to DH (please never let him play the OF again for the next four years). Schwarber + Marsh + Harper is a pretty decent defensive outfield, especially cause Marsh can shade over to LF to cover Schwarber’s deficiencies. I think your plan could work too v1 but I don’t see the Phils moving Rhys.

            3. Frank or someone………… me out here…….just a little over a week ago Harper started getting in game shape……….. was starting to play some outfield, began throwing …. 🛑 …….we aren’t going to do that just now, get him ready to DH… smacks of shoulder/arm didn’t take the platelet enrichment procedure………. no one ever explained it. So, if that’s the case, aren’t we looking for a surgical procedure over the winter and a recovery period which could be a delayed start of 2023 before we pen him in the lineup in RF..

            4. Yes. That is a big concern. If Harper has to stay as a DH, then we really have to dump Castellanos in the off-season. He is truly a terrible RF.

            5. Skeet…..Harper had the PRP injection mid-May because of the small tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of his right elbow…… possibly it did not work to what they expected. So assume he will have the TJ in October or November. Unless they try the PRP again, not sure how the process works.

            1. Baseball Reference has Reynolds at -0.7 dWar. I don’t think he’s the worst, but he’s not having a good defensive year that’s for sure. It’s starting to depress his value.

  9. If the Phillies were like the Reds or Pirates, I wonder how many of our minor leaguers would have been in the majors?

  10. Before people want to give Syndergaard a one or two year contract, keep in mind that he struck out ONE batter in seven innings. That means there are more balls in play which means a possibility of more men on base.

    And I think that Romus might agree with me that it would nice to see the Phillies give Plassmeyer the start on Wednesday rather than Sanchez. We pretty much know that Sanchez will give them 5 innings tops. Give Plassmeyer the shot.

    1. ciada…..and he is already on the 40 so it will not be a big transaction maneuver required.

  11. 67-55 (.550%)….with 40 games left.
    The future schedule appears favorable so… at a .575% (23 wins) clip in those 40 and the Phillies are at 90 wins…with a WC chance.

    1. That’s awesome, what life is about. Enjoy. If you need some traveling hecklers let us know 🙂

    2. that is so great. Congrats. I too am a proud papa like you, as both of twin sons committed to play D1 baseball at Iona .They are leaving this weekend actually as incoming freshman. Bittersweet definitely, as I will miss them everyday (huge Phillies fans as we are, having the Sunday Season ticket package), but excited for their next phase.

      1. Wow…that’s great. I often think ahead to what it will feel like when my boys leave the home. congrats on their success.

  12. What do you think the innings limit will be for Painter/Abel/McGarry next season? 160 innings? I’m asking that now because Nola is already at 157.2 innings (24 starts). Something to keep in mind if people want one of the big 3 to start next season in the rotation.

  13. So the Phillies play their next 21 games against sub-.500 teams (including SFG on the road)…Reds, Pirates, Marlins, Nats, most of them at home. If they can’t win 15 of them, they have NO business in the playoffs.

    1. Yeah .. it’s show time. I want to see the intensity from the players, playing SMART baseball. Opposite of Herrera.

      I expect them to make the playoffs now, a full game up on MIL, which could turn into two depending on how MIL plays that game in hand.
      They are tied with SD with 2 games in hand.
      Plus easy schedule. This is why Bryce came to Philly, this is why the big FA signed this winter … & previously … time to rev it up and get into the postseason, of which, I like our chances against the braves

  14. Hi guys. Most of my guys have been posting on this week.
    Few things. I was hoping Phillies could go 2-2 vs Mets. Close.
    Indiana State Fair finally over. Yeah. 24 days.
    I met a Phillies fan like myself last week at fair. A friend of mine introduced us.
    His name is Jim Riley and he moved to Carmel, Indiana in 1977. Lifelong Phillies guy like me. I guess I had his son in class in late 80s at Carmel. My friend told him we are only 2 Phillies fans in Indiana.
    I gave him the site and hope he joins. I told him my listing and gave also all of you who have been so nice to me the last couple years.
    Also, congrats Vi. Awesome for your son and entire family.
    Hinkie and I predicted 90. Phillies can still make it. 20-20 is 87 rest of the way.
    Finally, a little tidbit on grandson. Hagerstown the representative in the LLWS is close and was the first Varsity baseball game my grandson played in last Spring. It is a small town in Indiana. They are still in LLWS and play again this afternoon.
    Congrats to all the kids who are getting to play. Grandson team went to Cooperstown back I believe when they were 11. Lots of teams from everywhere go during that season and play for a week. Neat experience.

    1. Hoping you can finally get some down time, Don. Has your Grandson started back at school yet? Wishing him a great year. v1, that is awesome, and congrats to you and your son. Great stuff

      1. Welcome back, Don. Hope you had an awesome (and profitable) 24 days at the Indiana State Fair.

  15. ⬇ ⬇ ⬇ ⬇ ⬇

    2. Andrew Painter

    The Scoop: Painter’s season has been nothing short of remarkable. In fact, it’s gone well past remarkable, shot past outstanding, put incredible in the rear-view mirror and is rapidly approaching unbelievable. At this time last year, Painter had been a professional for just more than a month. In the months prior, the righthander had closed his senior season of high school and then been selected with the 13th overall pick in the draft. Now he’s in Double-A, where he put forth a sparkling debut that extended his scoreless innings streak to 26. Simply by throwing a pitch in Double-A in his first full pro season, Painter joined a very exclusive club of high school pitchers. Since 1997, just six high school first-round arms have reached Double-A in their first full seasons as pros: Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley, Dylan Bundy, Forrest Whitley and Painter. Does joining that group guarantee big things for Painter? No. Is it a really great indicator? Absolutely.

    1. According to BA, Painter’s FB has characteristics (avg 96+ MPH w/> 18″ IVB) only matched by two MLB SPs: Garret Cole and Dylan Cease!

    2. Interesting list, you have 2 HOFers, 2 guys that should have been better, and 1 guy who has had a boatload of injuries.

  16. Phillies face Lodolo again this evening. Let’s hope they have him figured out a little bit.

  17. Thanks guys. I check my phone during all the games.
    Sunday up 4-0. Up 7-4. Up 8-7 with 1 to go. Lost 10-9. Downer.
    Yes, fair was good. We had really good weather. The 2nd weekend was really hot but rest nice for August in Indiana.
    We do the fair and festival stuff till mid-October each year. This year also working in a 5-day trip to Disney World for the 4 grandkids.
    Does anyone know the Jim Riley I met? He was a born in Philly guy. My wife said you could tell by his accent.
    Matt, they went back to school August 10th. He is kind of chillin right now. He played over 70 games counting high school and travel. I have no idea how many summer basketball games he played. I know one day he played 3.
    Plus, he and his little sis are big time livestock exhibitors. They won a lot this show season as well.
    V1. Sorry I put an i. I am so tired. I just got all the stuff home from fair. Fortunately, we only live about 30 miles from fairgrounds.

  18. The hype for Painter is pretty intense. Feels different than Sixto or Howard. This kid is not slowing down, like a freight train just gaining speeds. definitely feels like Hamels 2.0.
    He’s “seems” mature from the interviews I’ve seen so hopefully he has some good life guidance on his side.

    I easily see him on the roster next year, Mayish.

  19. Count me as someone who wants nothing to do with Segura after this year. Is he talented? Sure. Is it coincidence that no player in MLB has played more games without even one playoff experience? I don’t think so. Is it coincidence that he has been traded as often as he has even given his obvious talent? I don’t think so. Was it coincidence that the Phils immediately began playing better AFTER Segura went down with injury? Again, I don’t think so.

    Look, most of us have played baseball at some level and especially as you progressed up the baseball ladder [probably high school and above] you encountered a teammate who, despite his talent, simply caused far too much distraction and controversy, much of it unseen to the average fan.

    I believe Segura is a clubhouse lawyer, has entirely far too many emotional ups and downs which teammates notice, and simply does things that not only irritate teammates but opponents. The latest example came on Sunday. The Mets commented after the game that they did not appreciate Segura’s antics after his 8th inning home run put the Phils ahead 8-7. I have always believed in the mantra “play like whatever you do well, do it like you have done it before.”

    I also believe that much of what we don’t know now about Segura’s temperament currently will be fully revealed once he is gone. I do not believe he will back next year, nor do I think DD wants him back. I think he wants to sign a free agent shortstop [Turner or Boegarts] and move Stotts to 2nd base.

    1. Interesting perspective. While I was always covetous of Segura prior to his arrival in Philadelphia, I can see the obvious question as to why the frequent change of scenery. He’s a good player. But I see Stott assuming the full time 2b responsibilities in 2023, Dombrowski having gotten his star free agent SS. There’s nobody else in the organization ready to step in as an everyday 2b but Stott. Same for CF, IMO. While I’m okay with Marsh getting enough time to prove himself, I’m not feeling it.

    2. Did anyone besides me see the article in either today or yesterday’s Phila Inquirer where Stott gave the credit totally to Segura for – after studying tapes of Stott hitting- urging him to use his two strike approach, where he shortened his stroke and widened his stance – all the time, and how that change was what let him start to really hit well?

    3. I’m not saying you are wrong altogether about Segura, you very well may be right. But come on, were not gonna rip him for celebrating a homer. Bat flips and celebrations are the future of the game. Im not going to fault Jean because the mets were whiney babies about him celebrating. The old 1960’s “baseball is a sacred game everybody needs to play it without fun” mantra needs to die. I hope Jean hits a homer vs the mets in the playoffs and bat flips while cartwheeling around the bases lol.

      Overall though you may be on to something. What do you mean about clubhouse lawyer though? And where do you get that? Just wondering.

  20. I’m not sure no matter how good Painter has been that I would put him in the MLB in 2023. At least not any of the front half of the year. Manage his IP well and possibly he gets a few starts on the back half.

    Abel possibly. McGarry absolutely if he proves his command is up to the task. McGarry kind of reminds me of Kopech….so far.

    The cautionary tale of this season is not what the current crop of FA’s DD brought in has done as much as it is even with those upgrades how much they still struggle to win games against the Met’s and Braves.

    And the proposal that DD would trade O’Hoppe for Marsh then go out and spend big on CF is mind numbing.

    1. …unless Marsh in a larger package can attract a rebuilding team with a good CF in return.

      1. This is not happening. The Phillies traded O’Hoppe for Marsh in the hopes that Marsh can turn it around. We’re not going to flip Marsh after giving him less than 3 months to prove himself.

        And if the rebuilding team has a good CF to trade i.e the Pirates with Bryan Reynolds, they would rather get a ranked prospect than a player like Marsh who *might* turn it around.

      2. Comparing Marsh and Bryan Reynolds defense this season is eye-opening. One is near the top of the leader board, and the other sits at or near the bottom.
        The bat, is the value indicator between the two right now.
        As for Marsh, I still hold confidence in Marsh reaching close to his minor league slash line in 2023..

    2. Many were ready to give Mickey Mo. the full opportunity to prove himself long-term in CF before the trade, however when it comes to Brandon Marsh there is a littlie negativity and certainly doubt to his abilities as the future CFer.
      Perhaps if Marsh was in the system from 2016 there may be a different attitude.
      Looking at their minor league metrics there is a discernible difference between the two as prospects..

      Brandon Marsh…..slash….288/.371/.440….K-24%…BB-11%
      Mickey Mo………….slash…256/.305/.310….K-22%…BB-6%

  21. Arte Moreno is planning to sell the Angels. If there’s one thing that he did, it was spend money. The next Angels owner may not be so willing to do so.

    1. Whoever the new owner will be…they will have a decision to make on Ohtani and his contract.
      Moreno did try to bring championships to Anaheim…signings of CJ Wilson, Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, Justin Upton, Rendon….the drafting of Trout and signing Ohtani.
      Just lacked the pitching and overall players staying healthy.

      1. Moreno overruled the recommendations of his baseball people on most of the players you listed and signed them on a whim. He bid against himself on Pujols, as the Cardinals weren’t anywhere near the price tag on what he paid.

        After Wilson, he clamped down on multi-year contracts for pitchers and made an already difficult job that much more difficult for his GM’s. He had nothing to do with drafting Trout, as he doesn’t know enough to covet any draft picks like he does position player free agents. As for Ohtani, that was a gift that fell from the sky. Moreno didn’t sign him as much as Ohtani chose them.

        Angels’ fans are rejoicing at the news today, as they should.

        1. Yes…..Moreno was impetuous and wanted to do it his way…he was the owner after all and he may have signed players on the ‘whim’..
          However, there was also the internal friction a dozen years ago or so between ….Dipoto and Scioscia.
          That didn’t go to develop a winning attitude within the organization.
          Three alpha dogs wanting to be the lead dog.
          From that pont on things unraveled….Dipoto left for the Mariners and Scioscia took off also.
          I am sure the fans are celebrating the upcoming change of ownership.

          1. Dipoto and Scioscia bickered over analytics and Moreno sided with Scioscia, as he liked him better. Scioscia left because he could see the owner was meddling in baseball decisions and the situation wasn’t going to get better. He was right.

    2. I don’t want to make it sound like Moreno didn’t spend because he obviously did with certain players (Trout, Pujols, and Rendon were the big ones). But I think the Angels’ next owner will make Moreno look like Wilpon by comparison, in terms of team spending. They’ve never went over the luxury tax and I believe that will change with new ownership and I’ll tell you why.

      MLB will steer this sale towards someone with obvious deep pockets (think the Angels’ equivalent of Guggenheim) and despite the stadium issue, it’s a sleeping giant, much like the Mets were when Cohen bought them, as well as when Guggenheim purchased the Dodgers from McCourt. The sale will be very, very costly, so whomever purchases it won’t stop there.

      Moreno is not liked by many people within MLB. He was a thorn in the side of Selig and Manfred during his ownership reign and he alienated himself with other owners on several key votes. The league will not be sad to see him go and will work diligently towards getting someone more to their liking, with the hopes of a more successful franchise and subsequent increased TV revenues that will help elevate other clubs’ deals in the future.

  22. Is it a coincidence that the Phillies Top 3 pitchers are being treated like college pitchers , McGarry Friday, Abel Saturday and Painter Sunday pitching once a week? Is it just a way to limit innings? Anyway, can I plan on attending Reading’s Sunday game and assume Painter is pitching?

    1. I think it’s easier to go to a 6 man rotation, especially now that the minor league schedule has 6 games per week vs the same team. It also limits innings and the Phillies can develop 6 pitchers instead of 5. But I don’t know this for sure, maybe Jim can give his insight on what the Phillies’ plan for this.

      As for Painter pitching on Sunday, I would wait until Reading declares him the starter for Sunday, most likely by Friday. I doubt it, but the Phillies can shut Painter down early.

  23. Segura skeptics (among whom I had counted myself) should read today’s piece in the Inquirer, which credits Segura’s coaching of Stott for the latter’s surge.

    A quote: “Segura said he never had a veteran player guide him in his career. He felt like he had to rely solely on his coaches’ advice, which is partly why he feels it’s important to help players like Stott when he can.”

    If that doesn’t make you take a second look, you might be a hater %)

  24. Romus – “Whoever the new owner will be…..” Who are you kidding? You and Moffo are putting your “shekels” together as I write to buy the Angels.

    1. LOL…..20 years ago Arte Moreno bought it for a little less than $200M…..selling it now for a little more than $2B…not a bad return on investment.

  25. Alex Coffey had an article in the Inquirer today about the young guys. Preston Mattingly said they are sticking with the once a week rotation and trying to get Painter and Abel to go longer. Wants them using all 4 Pitches more, and loves them both. Also mentions 2 guys I am not familiar with. Jaydenn Estanista from Curacao and Taylor Lehman, who is from Penn State and had TJ surgery. He is high on them as well.

    1. Lehman is interesting because he’s a 6’8″ 240lb lefty. I don’t know what he throws; he has good numbers but a short track record despite the fact that he’s 26. Seems like the kind of guy who could pop up as a bullpen candidate over the next year or two.

  26. Can someone in this comments explain in simple words “How a players Options are calculated? Or give me a website. Seems the Phillies are using Player options for promotion to the Big Team with little regard to Player Performance.

    Note: Promotions for help with BP, loosing Dominguez and Knebel then in the same note saying promotion to give SP EXTRA DAYS REST= BP Game?

  27. The last time the Phillies played Miami, the Marlins salvaged one game behind Edward Cabrera. Cabrera beat the A’s last night pitching 8 innings, giving up 2 hits, 0 runs, with 3 walks and 7 Ks while throwing 101 pitches.

    What really caught my eye was that the game was played in Oakland in front of 2,630 people. That was probably the “announced attendance”. That team needs to move if they can’t pass a deal for a new venue.

  28. I’m just not a Vierling fan….not much offense, and I am NOT thrilled with his defense.

  29. I’ll ignore how it even got to the point where heroics were required for the time being and just say; Stott has been a BEAST after his early struggles. The kid keeps rising to the occasion. He looks like he might be one of only a couple players who could be in Philly for the entirety of Harper’s contract.

    Also, it was ugly but I’ll take the birthday win. I feel like it rarely happens for me. That being said, they also like to lose (often in humiliating fashion) when I’m in attendance so… maybe don’t watch the game on Sunday, guys.

    1. I dunno about the rest of the game, but he should have at least been allowed to keep going until he allowed a runner

      1. Plassmeyer may get his shot at a rotation job next spring.
        if he can keep his BB/9 under 3, he stands a better chance.
        I think that was a good pick-up by the Phillies

        1. Plassmeyer was fantastic last night. He took the ball looking like he wanted it and performed incredibly.

          Finally a player who saw his opportunity and took it on squarely.

          Castellanos gets knocked for his defense but IDK he looks way better out there than Munoz did. In fact since BH went down he’s been really good out there to my naked eye.

        2. As much as we want Plassmeyer to succeed, we need to temper expectations. He’s throwing 90-91, against a bad Reds team. He’ll get to ST and show what he can do. Lehigh depth is one thing, being a ML starter is another beast.

          1. Yeah, I agree, kudos to the kid for balling out in his debut, but numbers dont lie; hes a 25 year old soft tosser. Somebody a little bit ago compared him to Cole Irvin and I think that is fair, maybe a best case scenario. Theres a place for him in the bigs, just think he may be a long man/spot starter and not a legitimate rotation piece. But whatever happens, cant take last night away from him. If the phillies make the playoffs by 1 game, gotta remember Mikey P played a key role lol

    1. I think 8 of the pitches were fastballs too. I saw one changeup that he got a popout on.

      1. I was trying to remember who the Phillies traded to Giants for Plassmyer. They traded a catcher Austin Wynns, a player they picked up in spring as free agent from Orioles. Plassmyer is only 25.
        Wynns 31, MLB average .218. Might be a steal.

  30. Robin, I had a response to the earlier “coincidences” comment that I decided not to post. But, since you replied, I decided to not let you stand alone.

    The “coincidences” noted by that individual and some personal biases led to an opinion. That’s okay. Everybody observes things and reaches opinions based on their own observations.

    I guess it wasn’t a “coincidence” that the Phillies went on to win 6 games after Segura returned on August 4th. I guess we ignore things that don’t fit the narrative we want to push.

    I think one major “coincidence” was overlooked. The firing of Joe Girardi is considered by many as the motivation that led to inspired Phillies’ play from June 3rd forward.

    I wish he had stopped there. Without inside information, the clubhouse lawyer speculation is just that, speculation.

    I know for a fact that the Phillies clubhouse is a hot mess. But, I’m not going to go into that here except to say it is not due to Segura.

    Now, how about this for a coincidence. The Nationals didn’t go on to win the world series until after their star, right fielder left for free agency. And, during his seven seasons, they won 4 division titles and lost 4 division series. That should be more concerning to Phillies fans than some BS about Segura.

    1. This may be out of line as an infrequent poster, but I really wish the readership didn’t receive these cryptic posts about the Phillies clubhouse being a “hot mess”. Maybe that’s the case and maybe Jim doesn’t want to reveal his sources, but it is frustrating to read when the situation seems great these days. I see all different guys talking, giving each other hugs, supporting other guys, etc., and there is no discernible animosity on the field or in the articles we read. Why is it a hot mess? Are we implying Harper is the issue? If so, has that been rectified at all with the addition of other established vets like Schwarber (who people seem to love) and Castellanos? I know we’ve heard in the past (again, cryptically) that the clubhouse is “cliquey,” so maybe it’s still that way. Either way, I’d like to know more about the source of the information. Maybe that makes me needy or I’m failing to grasp the rules of the road for the site, but the cryptic posting is no bueno. It’s a downer to here when the vibes around this team are actually really good for once.

      All that said, this site is the best, and glad we still have it.

      1. I believe what was meant was … Segura is not the issue … it’s a coincidence, much like Harper’s coincidence with the Nats winning without him & not with him … If you’re concerned about segura’s coincidence.. then why are you not concerned about harper’s? For the record … that was one of the luckiest WS wins from what I recall, but that’s up for interpretation.

        The non-coincidence is Joe giradi, and likely what was his managing style. Possibly the players going out of their way to prove to management old school is over & out. I will say, my guess on reading between the lines is old school vs new school vs Millennials 🙂 … there are a likely 3 different generations of “how to play baseball” trying to mesh in clubhouse all across baseball. I’m speculating .. but I’d bet this problem likely exists across most if not all mlb and minor league clubhouses. Here is what I am speculating as I see it just about everywhere…..

        What are young kids doing when you walk into a room? Yup, on their cellphones. That kid is grown up, and in mlb clubhouses .. trying to play for say a … Larry bowa type…. Yeah… it’s not going to work. It’s a problem newer to baseball.. before you had generations mix, but the different is that you had a Dallas green mix with a larry bowa … or a larry bowa to a Chase Utley. The generations mixed better, or wasn’t too far off. I’m not knocking the kids of today, they have their ways, but they get to point B much different than prior generations.

        I imagine the issues center around electronics, With the argument being the time you spend on them you could be working on your craft or preparing/resting for tomorrow. Something along those lines .. and I’d bet it’s a struggle all across baseball right now … for instance if I was in little league.. I’d be willing to bet my teammates would be playing Fortnite while they wait to come up to bat… vs 40 years ago when kids were involved in their teammates at bats/watching the game more.

        Maybe one of the dads can confirm, How little league is going these days. Im sure some coaches have a no phone rule and some don’t. For the ones that do, lol, I can see it really upsetting the kids. I’d have a no phone rule but …. Kids have a hard time going a few hours without their phones .. they’d rather chop their arm off than be without it . The dopamine kick is real

      2. I believe what was meant was … Segura is not the issue … it’s a coincidence, much like Harper’s coincidence with the Nats winning without him & not with him … If you’re concerned about segura’s coincidence.. then why are you not concerned about harper’s? For the record … that was one of the luckiest WS wins from what I recall, but that’s up for interpretation.

      3. Amen- is the “hot mess” fixable? It does seem like the team’s attitude is much improved but winning solves a lot of problems. Will we ever get any additional insight on who this person is?

    2. I wanted to write something tangential about Segura. After the Phillies traded for him there were a number of comments on how J P Crawford was putting up similar numbers at a lower salary. What I wanted to comment on is the possibility that it is a false conclusion that if the Phillies had just kept Crawford that he would have also put up similar numbers. Crawford had around 200 ABs for the Phils and was consistently around the Mendoza line. By contrast, however the current Phillies team contains numerous players both home grown and imported who in the second half of this season are reaching new levels of success. To me that is an extremely positive thing.

      1. IHeart……..”Crawford had around 200 ABs for the Phils and was consistently around the Mendoza line”……when you are in and out of the lineup, every other 2/3 days, and one day at 3B, then next at 2B and then another at SS as a rookie, well it is hard to get into any kind of a rhythm…..and that was the decision of the manager at the time….not too dissimilar to one Scott Kingery.
        With the Mariners, Scott Servais and Dipoto put him out there at ss, and said it is yours for the entire season in 2020, come rain ..more rain and high water, in Seatlle

        1. JP came up in 2017 when the Phillies were transitioning from tanking to contending. In 2018, Kapler was hired and the Phillies were in win-now mode. We have seen it here all the time, the Phillies can’t afford to wait for young players to struggle. Crawford was in that mix. For whatever reason, the Phillies saw an opportunity to upgrade and traded JP.

          JP went to Seattle where the pressure to perform is nowhere near what it is in Philadelphia. Even then, JP didn’t play a full season of games until his 3rd year, when he broke out. So the Phillies didn’t give JP a full season of games his first 2 years, and the Mariners didn’t do it either his next 2 years.

          So perhaps JP wasn’t ready. So could the Phillies have waited for JP to break out in year 5? No way.

          1. You can be in win-now mode and still allow younger players to be incorporated into the line-up. Phillies are doing that same thing now with Bryson Stott, who was also hitting under the Mendoza line for the first 3 months of the season. They are finally starting to see the results of that patience paying off, and it’s not a coincidence that the DFA of Didi to open up SS everyday was around the same time he started to hit better.

            If the Phillies (and their fans) want to be good for a sustained period of time, then they need to have some patience with younger players to allow them time to grow into the job.

            This mind-set that being in win-now mode means that anyone not immediately ready must go and there is no time for development to happen is the reason they are always stuck with a high payroll full of older players.

            Creating a winning culture takes time. I keep hearing complaints about how the Phillies never seem to bring up young players like the Braves, Dodgers, etc. Well maybe it’s because they aren’t willing to allow those young players to grow into the job.

            One example. Austin Riley started for the Braves in 2019 and was below average for the first 2 seasons, both offensively and defensively. But they continued to give him at-bats and let him develop. Compare that with how people see Alex Bohm after his first 2 years with the Phillies (and he actually hit very well in his 1st season offensively).

            To the Phillies credit, they’ve stuck with Bohm and it’s starting to pay dividends. That’s what it takes to build a team that allows younger players to become key components of the team and eliminates the need to keep signing big $$ FAs to fix every hole.

            Will the fanbase have the same patience for Marsh in 2023? Already see people calling for him to be traded this off-season for a veteran replacement.

            1. Stott had a lot of things go his way for him to be in this current position. He performed well in ST so that got him on the opening day roster. He might have started the year at Lehigh if he didn’t. Then he struggled but Didi was struggling too so Stott got some ABs. Then Stott got sent down to get more ABs at Lehigh, but was brought back up when Didi got hurt. Stott was still struggling, then Segura broke his finger. Since Stott was the most obvious replacement, the Phillies had no choice but to leave him up here and take his lumps. And Stott has eventually adjusted. But make no mistake, if Didi and Segura were healthy, no doubt that Stott would be spending the majority of 2022 at Lehigh.

              As for Bohm, he already proved he could hit ML pitching his rookie year. The Phillies were trying to get him back to that point. This season, Bohm got off to a good start, struggled, then said he wanted out and owned up to it. That got him a lot of points in Philadelphia and he eventually adjusted. Could you imagine what would have happened if Bohm didn’t own up to that statement? Most likely he would have been traded at the deadline for pennies on the dollar.

              This is how the Phillies operate. And the fans are ruthless. It really isn’t easy being a struggling young player in Philadelphia.

          2. Not really…his second year in Seattle they let him have shortstop all to himself….2020 he played in 53 of 60 games….that was almost the entire truncated season…… Servais let him go out there

            1. You are correct, JP broke out in year 4. But the Phillies weren’t going to wait 4 years for him to be starter level.

            2. The question is, should they have?

              How many playoff games did that win by signing Didi to play SS for $30M vs. allowing JP to play instead.

    3. Jim,

      Love your posts and while i wish you could just come out and say what you know, I understand why you can’t. Based on this post and others, it definitely seems like you are implying a certain player is a key cause of the issue. The whole thing is odd because the team looks like they enjoy each others company and looks like they are having fun playing together, so if there really is a lot of behind the scenes drama, they do a great job of hiding it.

      1. I came here to say this. While I don’t doubt there could be an abrasive personality or two in the locker room, the team genuinely looks like they enjoy playing with each other.

        To touch on Segura, I’ve always noticed that he is one of the first players out of the dugout (including last night) to swam whoever had the walk off hit. He also seems to genuinely have fun while playing the field and always has a smile on his face. Its hard to seem him as a bad teammate.

        1. Its also very possible that he was kind of a pain in the butt when he was younger but as hes gotten older and matured hes become a much better teammate as well

  31. When the season ends all we should care about is if we are on the right track to contend for the division and a Championship and that there are players in the system that appear to be pieces to sustainable winning.

    Often times we see teams rally down the stretch but come up a little short or fold down the stretch and leave us clamoring for changes.

    With a little more than a month left I like what I see on both the big club and in the farm system.

  32. Stott starting hitting better at the beginning of June. Not when Didi was let go.

    1. Stott starting hitting better because he got regular playing time. Just so happened it was because Segura broke his thumb. When Segura was ready to return, they wisely removed Didi to allow Stott to continue to play regularly.

      Point remains that for a younger player to succeed, they need to be allowed to play, failures and all. If they have to be concerned that an 0-16 streak is going to send them to the bench they cannot relax and play.

      Also, note that’s he’s hitting .329 is August. Which is the timeframe that covers when Didi was released and he no longer has to wonder if he’s the everyday SS.

      1. 3up….Dave D has a decision to make for next season and probably within 4 months..
        1. For next season…does he go out and sign one of the big shortstops for $24M or more AAV …and then move Stott over to 2B and release Segura and his $14M slary
        2. Keep Stott at shortstop, keep Jean at 2B for his last year…..and save about $10M or so from the middle infield starter positions.

        1. I would leave Stott at SS. He can definitely handle it defensively, and the money the Phillies would save would be enormous.

          As for 2B, it’s a trickier issue. Segura can still play. Do the Phillies want to pick up his option or let Maton take it (maybe with Sosa in a platoon)? Maton looks like he can hit ML pitching so leaving him at Lehigh doesn’t make sense. Having him as a backup infielder is almost doing him a disservice with the way he’s been hitting. Maton will be 26 in February, he’s still not in his prime. I’m leaning towards giving Maton 2B.

          With the money, they could look to extend Nola and/or Suarez. The Phillies will have to start spending rotation dollars soon.

        2. I’ve been on record as a guy who believes the Phillies should be “all in” on Justin Verlander when he turns down his 25M player option. I’d make him a big dollar, short term offer (maybe 2/65M). He’s got a history with DD (drafted him and raced him to MLB). And IMO, would provide the greatest impact to the 2023-24 Phillies teams. I’m fine with Stott at SS and Segura back at 2B on his club option (1/17M). But Verlander makes a whole lot of sense. Not only is he still a stud, but he’d make a tremendous mentor to not only Painter/Abel/McGarry, but also to Wheeler/Nola/Suarez.

        3. Romus, I agree he has a big decision to make. I personally go after one of the FA SS’s who can hit lead-off (Turner. wink..wink) and let Segura walk.

          Waving good-bye to Eflin, Gibson, & Knebel with the money already coming off the books creates enough room to pursue a top-3 rotation pitcher and top SS.

          Save the #5 spot in the rotation for one of the young pitchers to occupy. Can use Falter/Sanchez as a stop-gap until they are ready.

          1. “….an use Falter/Sanchez as a stop-gap until they are ready”
            ….maybe even Plassmeyer

  33. Jim and others…fair enough and as someone who loves this site and respects the writers and readers, I certainly did not wish to create a firestorm with my comments about Segura. However I will say this much in defense of what I wrote. I did not speculate about the Mets feelings about Segura after he hit the home run, those feelings came from the Mets themselves.

    As for my other comments, those opinions were widely shared by players and writers alike during his time in Seattle, Arizona and Milwaukee. As a Phillies phan I want him to do well and root for him when he plays. But I will stand by my comments and we will see what happens during the off season in regards to his future with the club.

    1. Who cares if the Mets didn’t like his reaction to the HR he hit to give the Phillies the lead. Do you think the Mets “tried harder” because of it?

      Did they like the Jimmy Rollins comments in 07?

      Was Pete Rose beloved by opponents?

      I hope the Phillies move on from Segura after the season simply because I want them to go after one of the big FA SS’s and move Stott to 2b. Has nothing to do with Segura not being a “winning player”.

      1. Yeah, there is nothing more annoying when teams cry about bat flipping/celebrating. Its a game, its supposed to be fun. The young generation loves the bat flipping and encouraging the high energy and celebration is how you get the young generation into the game. He may have some valid points about Segura but the mets homer celebration is not one of them

  34. Lets not forget that while Stott has certainly hit better lately, his horrendously low BA to start the season was very much a product of a poor BABIP too. Was he playing well? No of course not, But he was also getting extremely unlucky. I know it is not analytical, but I do think the eye test is a thing that matters, and to me at least Stott never looked like he didnt belong. Even when his BA was in the .100’s, he never looked overmatched to me. I know its becoming a cliche comment, but hes got that dog in him!

  35. A few thoughts on Stott, Segura and Harper:
    1. Love the story about Segura mentoring Stott. To me that’s a story about personal growth and maturity. We all mature at different ages. Some are more mature early. Others later in life. Let’s not judge 30+ year olds by their immature actions as a 22yo in the majors. We all deserve the benefit of the doubt for our emotional growth.
    2. To me, Stott’s leap as a hitter happened when he went to the no stride swing. His double last night and his homer on Monday night were both no stride swings. As have been many of his big hits lately. I may be wrong, but I think that he got the no stride swing from Harper, who adopted it last year with 2 strikes. If you notice Harper’s homers last night at LV were no stride. I love that swing approach. Really helps the hitter be on time. All they have to do is take their hands to the ball. So much more simple. We abandoned the big leg lift with my son. Too many moving parts. Just get into your back leg and take your hands to the ball.

    1. Agree V1 that the idea of spreading out with no stride came from Harper. Sounds like several people have been trying to convince Stott to use that approach all the time. Read something early in the season where Kevin Long was make the same argument.

      If Segura was the person who finally convinced him, all the better.

  36. Agree V1. The fewer moving parts the more successful you can be at the plate in my opinion. I would like to see JT do something similar. I like where his hands are, but the high leg kick requires timing to be perfect.
    Glad to see you taking that approach with your son. I would like to see my grandson do more of the same. To me he has too many voices telling him what to do. Keep it simple.

  37. ⬆️

    The reigning (2022) WS Champion Philadelphia Phillies open the 2023 season in Texas for three games, then travel to NY for a trio of contests with the Mets.
    Projected rotation:
    Game 1 … Justin Verlander vs Rangers
    Game 2 … Zach Wheeler vs Rangers
    Game 3 … Ranger Suarez vs Rangers
    Game 4 … Aaron Nola vs Mets
    Game 5 … Andrew Painter vs Mets
    Game 6 … Justin Verlander vs Mets

    😉👍 Nice !!!

      1. You’re right. My bad. My eyes ain’t what they used to be. That’s probably why this year’s pitch count/velo reading drives me (and Romus) crazy on NBC Sports Philly. I’m watching on a 75″ inch screen, and still have a helluva time making out the tiny graphic under the score board in the top left of the picture.

    1. And actually, Hinkie…I think Painter on the opening day roster is more likely than DD signing Verlander, which itself isn’t out of the realm of possibility, depending on whether they go after a FA SS. But yes, the 2023 Phillies starting rotation could be the best in MLB.

      …now if we could fix CF just as easily.

      1. Roger Clemens pitched the Yankees to the 2003 WS at age 40, then pitched a couple years afterward, taking Houston to the playoffs. Not taking into account fueling with the high test kool aid.

      2. Yeah, mark. Like I’ve mentioned a few times already (and will likely continue posting thru the winter), Justin Verlander would have a greater impact on the 2023 & 24 Phillies (for multiple reasons) than Trea Turner IMO. When he elects free agency, DD should be aggressive with a 2 year big money offer. I mentioned 2/65M earlier, but I’d even go higher (it’s not my money) if that’s what it takes.

  38. Interesting that they play only one 3-games series against a division foe (Marlins) in all of April through mid-May.

  39. Hey, next year my 62nd birthday is on a Saturday, and a 4 p.m. start to beat the Cubs! Us old guys need those earlier starts %)

    I’m hoping for a Verlander start that day, especially if Mrs Verlander is there.

  40. Topic: Kyle Schwarber

    The Phillies are winning more games than they’re losing lately. Bryson Stott was leading off before Schwarber returned to the lineup. The latter has been horrific at the plate. Stott, on the other hand, has been playing well and certainly hitting better than KS. And Stott figures to be a top of the lineup guy moving forward. So why is Thomson insisting on Schwarber in the leadoff spot? Fortunately it hasn’t set the team back much, but why keep him there?

    1. Schwarber has not hit a HR in 13 games….and leads the league in strikeouts with 156…maybe time for him to slide down a little in the lineup.

  41. Next year’s schedule is like no other. Every year the Phillies played the division rivals 19 times. Next season they play each of those teams 13 times. I kind of like that.

    The interleague schedule has gone up to 44 games. It used to be about half of that. The Phillies play the entire AL East, Al West, and AL Central 3 games each except for just two with Toronto.

    It used to be that they’d play one division every third year and have a rivalry team. The rivalry team used to be the Red Sox. The past few years, it has been the Blue Jays.

      1. The 2 league distinction no longer exists, especially now with the universal DH. Six 5-team geographic divisions make much more sense. Have two conferences, east and west. But play less games within the division, say 12 versus each of the 4 rival teams (6 home, 6 away = 48), then play 6 (3 + 3) against other conference teams (6×10=60). The remaining 54 games are against the other conference, break it down into 18 3-game series, whatever…

        Northeast: NY Yankees, Toronto, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit
        Mid-Atlantic: Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, NY Mets, Pittsburgh
        South: Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Houston, Cincinnati

        Northwest: Minnesota, Seattle, San Francisco, Oakland, Colorado
        Midwest: ChiCubs, ChiSox, St Louis, Milwaukee, Kansas City
        Southwest: LA Angels, LA Dodgers, San Diego, Arizona, Texas

    1. 44 interleague games is kind of shocking. When they play more than a quarter of their games against teams in the other league it’s not very special, is it? I am in favor of playing teams nearby every year – such as the Yanks, Red Sox and Orioles, but why sacrifice games against division rivals so they can play the Mariners? Those are much less compelling games.

      1. Maybe they will play a majority of the interleague games in the first half of the season.
        BFL tries to do that with inter-conference games…..and down the stretch play teams in their own conference and division…makes for more intense and tighter playoff pushes.

      2. The Mariners are being used just as an example – they should play the AL East teams every year and the Central and West every other year.

  42. I thought this was cool…especially having a kid almost entering high school. We often forget that these players were local legends. Even the guys who only get a cup of coffee in the majors were special players in high school.

      1. V1, interesting question for me .. maybe otherS. I have been to a little league game in decades … before the infusion of cellphones into kids lives. Curious … not just your son’s team but have you noticed kids on their phones while on the bench? I’d imagine some coaches allow this while others have zero tolerance rules about electronic use during games.
        Curious as I feel we are in a time in baseball where 3 generations of people are colliding l. It wasn’t an issue before , as the previous generations were closer together on how play baseball “the right way”

        Think Dallas Green to Bowa to Utley to Harper to a kid raised with a phone available from young age.

  43. So my other team, the Guardians, are beating the Padres (on MLB network) for the second straight day. Win, win, for me.

    Hinkie was so so right about Kwan.

    A reminder that the Guardians lineup is younger than EVERY AAA team. Is Francona a great manager or what?

    How many people had the Padres fading after the Soto trade?

    1. Robin … I do like Kwan’s game a lot. Crazy to think he wasn’t even a Guardian’s top 30 prospect at the beginning of last season.

  44. Thompson had some really nice things to say about Plassmeyer in the post game press conference. It would nice to see him get called back up and maybe get a start. Hope he is still around when next year’s spring training comes along. What do you say, Romus?

    1. ciada…….I like to see next spring also.
      He has to have command of his pitches for him to be effective.
      His velo is very pedestrian in the low 90s, so he needs that command.
      He probably is an end of the rotation guy….if Gibson leaves, maybe he can slide into that 5th slot.
      He will be competing with the other two lefties….Falter and Sanchez.
      Probably doesn’t matter anyway…a team needs 6 and 7 starters through a whole season the way it usually works.

    2. As i mentioned in the prospects thread, Plassmeyer may be another example of where scouting of second-tier players has improved under DD.s That is part of what gives me confidence he can make trades over the winter that improve the club.

      Trades could include fun prospects who have big questions marks like Ortiz and Rojas.

  45. My less than 2 cents worth opinion. I do not dispute jim’s sources. We have no one close to the Bryce Harper ability coming. If the “hot mess” is on him, despite what I believe to be close relationships to Stott and JTR, them we need to get rid of anyone not in Harper’s “camp”. Sorry, jim and anyone who thinks otherwise, but talent matters.

    1. matt13…..I do not think I have been on any team or managed any team were the whole team was one big happy family. Yeah after we won a championship at whatever level we were playing at, then everyone loved each other…but during the season too many different personalities. You can bet, put 25 people together, there will be cliques somewhere along the line.
      Then you get a team like the ’93 Phillies….25 different cliques…but Dutch was the glue that kept them together..

      1. Whatever it is … I’ll be a selfish fan … don’t care if they hate it each other’s guts… just win. Don’t even care if they take roids .. but if you do … you need to win. Don’t care if they have their version of the trash can stomp or DD is stealing intel from other front offices… just win. Don’t care if they are paying umps to call close pitches for them …
        After watching for over 37 years … and seeing 1 WS… I don’t care… in fact I EXPECT IT 🙂

        Also, I think we are blowing this up. I don’t believe Jim meant Harper is the issue but it’s a coincidence just like segura is.

        Club house issues could be generations butt heads, electronics in the clubhouse (still) – vacciners vs nonvaccers, pitchers willing to use spider tac or not, a new steroid … it might not just be personality. It could be various issues .. lol whatever it is …
        Don’t care….just win! The one exception id make to caring is abuse, anything to do with kids, or a serious crime. Other than that .. just win. I’m going to ignore all that and enjoy a playoff worth team with 3 mlb arm on the way and daddy war bucks spending to fill in the pieces ….

        Also ..the Trout watch might be back on 😂

  46. I agree, Romus. Maybe I am wrong, but jim seemed to suggest we need to worry that Harper is an issue. If I misread that, I apologize. If I didn’t then I want Harper and everyone else can go. This is the Phuture Phillies site, but we have no upcoming Bryce Harper.

    1. I’ve always thought that once Harper/Marsh returned from injury that Zimmer would be DFA’d but after seeing the OF play the last couple of days, they might keep Zimmer and get rid of Munoz.

      He’s not an option for the OF and is unnecessary as a backup IF.

      Agree with replacing Nelson with Appel.

      1. Yesterday morning around this time I posted above:

        “Castellanos gets knocked for his defense but IDK he looks way better out there than Munoz did. In fact since BH went down he’s been really good out there to my naked eye.”

        I expect that experiment with Munoz is over

  47. With such a favorable schedule remaining, it’s almost inconceivable that the Phillies won’t win at least 90 games which would lock them as the 2nd WC behind either ATL or NYM. How far into October they go will depend on how well they are playing heading into the playoffs – namely defense and situational hitting against better pitching.

    Nola, Wheeler and Suarez should hold their own, perhaps Thor gets a couple starts and keeps them in games despite his recent pitch to contact approach. Gibson could be ideal as a long/middle reliever.

  48. Munoz only had 6 games in OF at LHV this year and 8 games in OF last year, so he is not prepared to play OF.

  49. Ok I’m somewhat convinced this team if they make it to the playoffs anything can happen especially with a healthy BH…

    If and only if Wheeler and Nola don’t have any clunkers. The Dodgers still seem too tall a task to get by but all the other teams appear very beatable.

    1. DMAR….Dodgers’ pitching……they have to depend now on Urias, Gonsolin and Anderson down the stretch and maybe into the play-offs….Kershaw’s back is always a concern and Dustin May is coming back from TJ, Buehler is gone again with TJ… their pitching is susceptible….and Kimbrel is their closer, with a current WHIP of 1.5, and his play-offs have not be super of late.
      But if it is between the Dodgers, Mets or Braves at the end..I prefer to see the Dodgers in the WS.

  50. Hinkie – Cal Quantrill pitched 7 shutout innings yesterday to gain his 10th win. His ERA is right around 3.6. You were clamoring years back that the Phillies should draft him.

    Had the Phillies drafted him, would he still be pitching at LHV or with another club given their propensity to give up on pitchers very early in their development.

    I believe he would have been given the Moniak treatment had he been a first or second round pick and allowed a little bit more of a leash.

    1. cicada … I think they would have stuck with Quantrill, and given him every chance. That’s part of the perks of being a 1st round pick (especially a 1-1 if the Phils had taken him in that 2016 draft). Plus it’s not like this organization has been with flush with SP prospects until recently.

  51. I think the Braves are going to run down the Mets. This would put the Mets as the number one wildcard in the Phillies remain where they are the Phillies would be the number to wildcard, with either the Padres or the Brewers the number three wildcard. Does that mean that the Phillies would play the Mets in the first round best of three? If so that’s deGrom and Scherzer in the first two games, a very tall task indeed.

    1. Hope is that the Braves/Mets are fighting to the last day for the division and cannot set up their rotation for the playoffs.

  52. Need some help with my memory…can anyone remember the OF the Phillies had briefly back in the late ’90s or ’00s (I think?)…first name was Chris (not Coste) and I believe his brother was a big time college linebacker. For the life of me I don’t recall his last name…anybody?

    1. There was a Chris Roberson around 2007. No idea if he even had any brothers, but he shares my birthday.

      1. Craig James was his brother, played in the SMU backfield with Eric Dickerson “the Pony Express”.

      1. Didn’t he and Lance Parrish and Michael Jack go back-to-back-to back in one game in the late 80s?

        1. Yep, Romus…mid-to-late 80s was a strange time, but a couple great talents emerged – Juan Samuel (who was later traded for Lenny) was about as dynamic as any player during my lifetime. Von Hayes had that ‘almost’ something special which never fully bloomed…..well, that’s about it. Dutch’s formative years before becoming the man in the clubhouse. Mix in a Kevin Gross, maybe. John Felske was about as blah as managers come.

          1. Von Hayes..hah…I remember the story after the trade and the first time he walked into the clubhouse to introduce himself, he went up to Pete Rose, and Rose asked him who he was, he told him Von Hayes….Rose said “I thought you were black”
            Hayes did have a 27WAR career with the Phillies over the nine years in Philly.

            1. If I remember correctly, Von Hayes career was basically ended when his arm was broken by a pitched ball and he never recovered. I don’t know that i have EVER heard of anyone else who had their arm broken by a pitched ball.

            2. Yes, must have got him in the wrong spot…usually wrist and hands/fingers are the common injuries, like Harper and Moniak.
              Though I remember LHP Dave Drabecky was a pitcher, who threw a pitch and his arm broke…..later found out he had a cancer tumor on his bicep and his arm was amputated..

  53. Who have the Mets pummeled:
    ………….34 of their 79 wins….43%
    Rest of the league: 45-34

  54. We should not be too despondent about the Mets’ dominance of the Phils this year. In 1983 the Dodgers had an 11 to 1 regular season advantage over the Phils, but Gary Matthews got red hot in the playoff series which the Phils won three games to one.

    P.S. In the regular season the Dodgers had shut out the Phils five times, allowed them a total of 15 runs in twelve games and held the Phils’ hitters to a microscopic .187 batting average. Talk about dominance!

    1. Would be nice to turn the trick on them if they meet in the play-offs.
      I remember that series….Burt Hooton heard the Phillies fans loud and clear.

  55. That is why the playoffs start 0-0. Anything can happen and often times it does. The way the baseball playoffs are now it is really difficult for the team with the best record to make the WS yet alone win. You just have to win so many games and as was mentioned a team can get really hot at the right time. Cards, Nats, Braves are just a few of those teams in recent years.
    As Parcells always said the trick is to make the tourney and let the chips fall.

  56. Hopefully Wheeler’s fine come playoff time, but might Dombrowski place Painter on the 40 man roster before Sept 1 in case Zack’s not ready?

  57. romus, the burt hooten game was the 1977 series. it is referred to as black friday. Hooten was completely rattled and booed off the mound. unfortunately , we had a 4-2 lead in the ninth with 2 outs and the fell apart. 5-4 loss was the worst game i have ever witnessed. still upsets me to this day.

    1. jim c – I completely agree with you….Oh, the Bull – and that darn ball bouncing over his head. Yes… it is painful.

    1. I was listening to the extremely-listenable Reds radio broadcast of the game, and the “color commentator” Jeff Brantley went on and on about the extraordinary movement on Nola’s pitches

      1. First batter of the game Nola faced was Jake Fraley, from Delaware….him and Nola are buds, LSU Tiger teammates….at .Nola’s MLB debut in 2015, Fraley’s parents came up from Delaware for the game, nice people.

      2. Good for you. The Phillies home broadcasts are literally impossible to watch. One long commercial for stadium vendors, constant food in the booth, split screen whenever anybody is in the booth, fan shots of guys eating potato chips, the Phanatic, goofball Kruk, little kids crying, etc, etc. Almost anything but the game. An old school opinion. Maybe people today would rather see a Yuengling beer can than the game.

          1. Scott Franzke is head and shoulders better than any play by play voice in the city. Harry and Whitey remain the best duo of our lives but they’d never survive this corporate climate of constant commercial cacophony. TMac seems like a nice guy but he sounds like an online simulation of broadcasting 101, with no personal style except a spine splitting crescendo on a homerun call that pummels my eardrums like a punching bag.

            But other than that, I like him.

            1. mark……….”… sounds like an online simulation of broadcasting 101, with no personal style except a spine splitting crescendo on a homerun call that pummels my eardrums like a punching bag.

              ….that is the best I have heard describing his style.
              Though his calling of football games I like…less time for him to meander on about trivialities.

            2. I enjoy the Phillies TV broadcasting team. They are like your friends sitting in your living room watching the game. TMac is a regular Philly guy. Kruk is a hoot, Ben Davis is ok and Amaro is nauseating.
              Not satisfied at all with the revolving door of radio analysts.
              Love LA, old school is alwsys entertaining.
              Not a fan of Scott F, he is, IMO, walking thru broadcasts. LA saves him by the banter, which makes Scott endearing to the fans. Scott is reactionary and boring at times.
              These are all my opinions so everyone is entitled to one or more.
              Been listening since mid ’60s.

  58. Last year many here wanted to dump Nola. Hinkie and I were his most vocal defenders. We both said that you absolutely can not trade him. That his ERA was not indicative of his value. Here is what I saw to draw that conclusion:

    1. imo the most important stat for a pitcher is K rate. Simply put, MLB hitters are too good if you let them put it in play, bad things happen. Last year, Nola was 6th among all MLB SPs in K% with 29.8%, tied with Woodruff. The 5 above him: Burnes, Scherzer, Cole, Ray and Cease. Said differently, Nola has elite stuff.

    2. Imo the second most important stat for a pitcher is BB%. Nola’s 5.2% was tied for 3rd best with Scherzer, Burnes and Grienke. Only 2 above him was Eovaldi and Urias. Said differently, Nola has elite command.

    3. The combination of elite stuff and elite command is extremely rare. Nola’s K%-BB% was 5th in MLB last year. Only behind Burnes, Scherzer, Cole and Ray.

    4. A pitcher can only control his pitches. He can’t control how the defense handles balls in play. Which is why I then look at Fielding Independent Pitching. Nola was 12th in MLB SPs.
    5. So why was Nola’s era much worse than his FIP? Two reasons, we had a terrible defense last year (not his fault) and, for some reason, he gave up a lot of homers last year. If you combine poor defense and a bad homer year, your ERA will spike. But while we didn’t really improve our defense this year, Nola figured out why he was giving up so many homers and has cut his Homer/9 P rate from 1.3 to 0.86 (18th best among MLB SPs).

    Aaron Nola is an exceptional starting pitcher. According to Fangraphs, since his rookie year (2015) his WAR of 28.5 is the 7th best among MLB SPs. Folks, that’s elite. If you don’t see an elite SP with Aaron Nola then you aren’t looking closely.

    1. I was the one that freaked out when people wanted to trade Nola. He is a legit starting pitcher in the bigs. That type of pitcher is very hard to find. Not only is he the best draft pick the Phillies have had in the last decade, he needs to get his extension in the offseason.

    2. At v1 – if you recall last year Nola had a penchant for getting two strikes on a batter and then somehow the batter homered off him. It happened quite a few times in meaningful games – its almost the reverse of a BABIP collapsing for a hitter ; Nola’s inability to just get that pitch slightly lower/higher caused the homers -but it seemed, now, to be more of a statistical phenomenon. He corrected it, or did the rule of averages come back to support him ? Any which way, Nola is without doubt an ace of a pitcher and under no circumstances was any talk of trading him anything more than a temper tantrum.

    3. I’d also like to say that Nola is the most aesthetically pleasing type of pitcher to watch. I’d put him in the camp with guys like Halladay and Lee: “finesse” pitchers who actually have really good stuff too. Personal preference but I’d rather watch him than Wheeler who’s more of a straight power pitcher.

  59. v1, there has been legitimate criticism of Nola’s past couple of Septembers, so last night was great to see. I have never been a trade Nola guy, and I am hoping to see more outings like last night as the calendar turns to September.

  60. I’ve always firmly been in the “Nola is an ace” camp. So I’m always super happy when he has a game like last night where no one can deny it for a bit.

  61. So, with Harper back tonight, from here on I’d like to see this lineup…

    Stott ss (I’m sure it’ll be Schwarber)
    Bohm 3b (though Rhys may pull rank)
    Harper dh
    Realmuto c
    Schwarber lf (Stott, if not leading off)
    Castellanos rf
    Hoskins 1b (in one of his many lulls)
    Segura 2b
    Zimmer/Vierling cf (until Marsh returns)

  62. V1 – Always liked Nola: steady, calm, quiet, just a good teammate. Going back to your point one, the Phillies need to keep just that in mind when/if they decide to offer Syndergaard a contract for next season. If he can bring up his K rate these next 5-6 starts, then I would consider him as a piece for next season.

    1. At 29, Nola is ranked #15 in active career pitching WAR according to Baseball Ref. No one aged 30 or below is close. It’s pretty remarkable to see him ahead of Darvish and within striking distance of Gerritt Cole at this point in his career.

      He could put up 60+ WAR if he stays healthy.

      1. He could, but it’s a tall, tall order. There can’t be more than 7 current pitchers who delivered 30+ WAR since they turned 30. Charlie Morton, who has had a career resurgence in his 30s, didn’t do it. Kershaw won’t be doing it either. Adam Wainright is close, but he’s already 40.

  63. Romus…here is a quick reminder of a very interesting and successful Phillies team of the mid-late 80’s Phillies, the1986 club. They had a very good team, led by MVP Mike Schmidt, an All-Star season from Von Hayes, tremendous seasons from Juan Samuel and right fielder Glen Wilson [knocked in 100 runs] and a very under rated season from left fielder and lead off hitter, speedy Gary Redus.

    They also had a very solid starting rotation of Shane Rawley, Don Carmen [who almost pitched a perfect game in August], Kevin Gross and rookie Bruce Ruffin, who replaced Steve Carlton in June. They also got solid September starts from Starvin Marvin Freeman and Mike Maddux and a bullpen led by Steve Bedrosian, Kent Tekulve and Tom Hume. They also had 2 young catchers in Darren Daulton and John Russell.

    The highlight of this season was when the eventual World Champ Mets came into Veterans Stadium needing only 1 win to clinch the East. The Phils said “not in our park” and swept the series, highlighted by Schmidt’s towering and game winning home run against Dwight Gooden in Game 1.

    Unfortunately, catcher Lance Parrish was a free agent, a good buddy of Wilson, and considered the “missing piece.” The Phils signed him in the spring of ’87 and then made a disastrous trade, Redus for pitcher Joe Crowley. The Crowley nightmare would make Steve Blass control issues look tiny by comparison and after a horrible 0-4 start, he was quietly released. Parrish was a big disappointment and the 87 team was not only bad, but led to an over decade [other than 1993] period of literally being lost in the woods. The names were legendary for their mediocrity…Dale Murphy, Ken Howell, Steve Ontiveros, Danny Tartabull, MidreCummings, Rick Schu, Tommmy Herr and Randy Ready.

    Hope this rekindles some nightmares [er, memories!]

    1. Thank you California for the repeat nightmare!
      I think during that period, Bill Giles weighed heavily in the decision making
      And unfortunately they never could get over the hump.
      When Schmitty retired a few years later, and so abruptly in ’89, I was hoping he would hang on to hit 7 more HRs that season then call it quits, and get to a number like 555….but that was not his style.

        1. I remember the photo of Jeff Stone, Juan Samuel and Von Hayes together as the future of the Phillies.

          1. 2 out of 3 isn’t bad. I remember some of those trenches “Spinner” Stone would make at 1b in his attempts to steal second.😏

  64. Danny Tartabull, 1 AB, fouled ball off his foot, broke it and was done! Those were dreadful years. Dale Murphy was a great player, but was finished when we got him. It was about this time that Bill Giles hired Woody Woodward who told him the farm system had to be completely re-done, and Jim Baumer had to go. So Giles fired Woodward and we got Lee Thomas, who famously told the fans they should be happy to just come out to the ballpark for entertainment. Who were we to demand a good team. Nightmares, for sure!

  65. Some stats through age 29 season*
    WHIP / K% / BB% / FIP
    Hamels: 1.15 / 23.4% / 6.3% / 3.48
    Nola: 1.13 / 27.3% / 6.6% / 3.31

    * Nola’s age 29 season is ongoing. But when complete it will be the 8th season for both pitchers. Nola obviously had the Covid shortened season of 2020.

  66. One big difference, v1. We have not seen Playoff Nola, and we can only hope that that Pitcher is somewhere even close to 2008 Playoff Cole Hamels. And, not 2009 Playoff Cole Hamels.

  67. He was fun, v1, and I want Nola to get the chance. I think he will rise to the occasion, and hopefully, Wheeler is healthy, and the 2 of them give us a real chance in a Playoff series. At least, that is my hope!

    1. I just want to see how Nola does in Sept. before the play-offs…
      He has struggled in the last month….Sept/Oct…W-9…L-14…ERA-4.60, WHIP-1.3, is not a confidence builder.
      Hamels’ career spits in Sept/Oct were a bit better.
      W-29…L-24…ERA…3.56…WHIP – 1.2

  68. They keep making Schwarber run like that, he’ll be on the 10 day before you know it!😎

  69. If you want to understand why advanced analytics rates Alec Bohm as the worst defensive player in MLB, but your “eye test” thinks that he is playing good defense, go watch Ke’brian Hayes’s “double” from last night. His poor range costs us badly. He is hitting well. So seems like we will stick with him. But don’t fool yourself into thinking that he is a good defender. He remains a terrible defensive player.

  70. This is where I differ, v1. I wouldn’t call him terrible. I think there has been marked improvement from earlier, and while I also wouldn’t call him a “good” defensive player, he is now passable to me. I respect your opinion, but I think he has improved from “terrible”, and I definitely think the team is sticking with him at 3B.

    1. That’s fair Matt. You may be right. As long as he isn’t committing many errors, he isn’t terrible. But he certainly isn’t good as some have suggested lately.

    2. Bohm’s defense has improved, but it’s still pretty bad. He’s going to get very close to -2 dWar for the season and that’s brutal.

      At this point, we can only hope that he can improve into the -0.7 dWar range in the future. However, his defense is going to depress his value similar to Rhys Hoskins. It’s not a surprise that Hoskins is posting his best WAR season because he’s finally gotten his defense into the 0 dWar range.

  71. Speaking of good defensive players, Austin Hedges must be the best defensive catcher in all of baseball. His name was always mentioned way back when the Phillies were trading Hamels and and Padres were in the mix. Why do I bring this up you may ask (if you care)?

    Hedges has not hit above .200 since he batted .231 back in 2018. Yet, he is still a starting catcher in MLB and it’s not with an also ran team. He catches most of the games for Cleveland. So, I guess his stellar defense is the only reason he is still in MLB and catching daily.

    1. Going back to a previous topic, obviously this team as it is constructed needs an excellent defensive center fielder with outstanding range and excellent defensive shortstop with outstanding range. And when you develop or acquire the preferred pitchers who induce ground balls that importance is magnified. I like our current shortstop but don’t know that he has outstanding range. And I really like Juan Segura but from a cost perspective it seems a replacement SS with great range and Bryson moving to 2nd is a big improvement – and also vastly better than giving up on Bryson and Alex. If I remember correctly, with another of the most highly touted Phillies 3rd base prospects in recent times, Maikel Franco, the Phillies suffered defensively from his limited range. This is why SS would be my top off-season priority.

  72. On Nola, I’m a huge fan. I was in the “He’s an Ace” group for the first 5/6 seasons of his career. I’m not going to get excited about him blowing the reds away. Great to see, but it’s … the reds. I will say I feel like he has been good against the braves far more than he isnt.

    I was open to trading him last deadline: offseason because of what he could bring back .. but it was also before the the CBA pushed the luxury tax up .. AND Middleton blew past it for once.

    Now you resign him. With the young guys coming, even if he regresses to a #3, It’s a great move imo. I just hope he wants to play here when the time comes. I was getting the sense he might want a change of scenery … especially if they missed the playoffs.. but making the playoffs could make it that much easier for him to resign if the money is where it needs to be

    My all time fav Phils starters


    Honorable mention … Tommy Greene . Not on the same levels as the others but fan favorite. 2nd honarable
    Mention was Randy Wolf. Love watching all those guys pitch

  73. Just took a look at Rhys Hoskins’ bio and saw he was a 5th round draft pick by Phillies in 2014. Noticed too that Nola was #1, also Schwarber and Bradley Zimmer were #1’s by Cubs & Clev. Later rounds Coonrad 5th round and Nick Nelson much later.
    Just a Fun Fact.

    1. Bradley Zimmer has been DFAd, Marsh has been activated and in tonight’s starting lineup.

      Bradley Zimmer was a former top prospect that has a career minor league OPS of .827. When he made the bigs at age 24, he had a .902 OPS at AAA. There are no guarantees when it comes to prospects.

  74. There is an informative article on the Phillies website that mentions that it’s not likely that Painter/Abel/McGarry will be coming up in September. Not only that, all 3 seems to be close to their innings limit.

    On Sep.1, the roster will expand to 28 players, with a limit of 14 pitchers. So I’m assuming Darick Hall will come up and maybe Appel or Plassmeyer?

    Zach Eflin is progressing but I find it hard to believe he’ll be able to ramp up his arm and be ready to pitch in a game before the end of September. Eflin hasn’t pitched since June 25th. I don’t know how the Phillies can count on Eflin for 2023.

  75. If Eflin could somehow be ready to pitch again this season, it would be as the long man out of the bullpen replacing Nelson.

    Seems like New Jersey born Zac Gallen is lined up to pitch against the Phillies on Monday night. He’s having a great season.

  76. There are a lot of really, and I mean REALLY bad major league baseball teams. I thought the Nats were one of the worst teams I had ever seen. Then I thought the same of the Reds. Now the Pirates. You also have the Royals, Tigers, A’s. AAA teams basically. That doesn’t include the mediocre teams. Not a lot of fun watching really bad baseball.

    1. Implementing a Minimum Team Salary and Maximum Team Salary was the most important goal of the last CBA. By not implementing some reasonable range this landscape of talent inequality is getting wider each year, even more so post trade deadline. It’s becoming noticeably embarrassing. Many of the August series are proof of that.

      I still love baseball best but the NFL is comparatively so much healthier because it has built-in competitiveness. All of the varied MLB leaders (commish,owners,union) are destroying the sport. Sadly.

    2. Not sure how this would compare to years past. Of course, after the trade deadline most of those teams are at the lowest point they can reach in terms of talent. Reds, Pirates and A’s just moved most of their best players out.

  77. Last night got only the Pirates broadcast. Couple things they brough up. Phillies have spent nearly $1.5 B since 2011 with no playoffs. Wow.
    Schwarber K in the bottom of 8th was 160. Wow. Incredible for a leadoff hitter.
    3rd point they made was that the Phillies BP is 4th worst since All Star break.
    Cardinals were 3rd worst and other teams are bad teams.
    The other thing I have noticed in the games I have been able to watch recently are the incredible low batting averages by so many hitters. I caught a couple Indianapolis Indians AAA games while in Indy at fair. Louisville and Iowa. So many hitters near or below 200 averages.
    Just throwing this out on a Sunday hoping Phillies go 7-0 vs Bucs. Braves swept them last week.
    This year the Phillies are winning the games they should win. Another stat Phillies guy threw out Friday was win put Phillies 16 games over 500 for first time since 2011. Another wow. Dodgers are 50 games over. I looked yesterday on Extra Innings previews. They would be 34 games ahead of Angels.

  78. Don53…………..”So many hitters near or below 200 averages.”…has to be the balls, what other explanation can there be.
    The balls must be better to grip for the pitchers, and dead to hit for the hitters.
    Also along the ISO/power grid….HRs may be down overall thru-out MLB compared to previous seasons…I have not checked but seems that way.
    ‘Warning track power’ was the term used earlier in the season.

    1. Nah, we’re about 75% of the way through the season with a little over 4,000 homeruns hit. So we can expect around 5,000 by the end of the year, which would put this season around 6th or 7th since 2008. So pretty close to middle of the pack. Notably, with the exception of 2020 (and this year so far), all the most recent seasons take up the top 5 spots.

      The league average ISO is also fairly middling (9th since 2008), but slugging IS noticeably lower (2nd to last, beating only 2014). So the ball is carrying but batters aren’t getting as many hits. Could be a grip thing as you mentioned.

    2. Romus…maybe the hitters are not very good this year. Pirate guys were comparing Schwarber to Adam Dunn last night. Both All Stars. Around 200 averages. Both lots of HRs. Both lots of Ks.
      When I watched those 2 AAA games many hitters there were around 200. Sure, AAA probably uses somewhat different ball. Not sure on that.
      Main thing at this time is the Phillies are winning and barring a total collapse should nab one of the playoff spots. Personally, I think I would like for them to open with St. Louis. But not looking that way at the moment. Get in and see what happens.

      1. Don…Schwarber and Adam Dunn is a good comparison. Power with high K rates, low BA. better than average BB rates generating a decent OBP..

  79. I have been on the “let’s make the Playoffs and see how it goes” side for the past few years. I have seen us be in the Playoff hunt in August a few times, and lose to those “bad” teams. I will take and enjoy every W regardless of who it’s against. We have seen multiple trade deadline moves completely fail, and am happy with what this tear’s moves have done. With Knebel done for the season and SerA on the IL, where would we be without Robertson. And, I was not thrilled with losing Brown, but it is presently a good move.

      1. Not only that, this offensive juggernaut has been shutout 5 games in the month of August, wasting really good efforts by Nola, Wheeler and Suarez.

        1. Last 3, vs Fla, Cin & Pitts were on getaway days all with Thompson. He has been done so many things right but this might be a teachable moment.

      2. I’ve seen some nasty sliders from RH pitchers (David Cone, Dave Stieb, Brad Lidge) and Roansy Contreras’ slider is up there. That is a plus slider. That thing breaks so fast and then falls off a cliff. To say that it’s getaway day is doing a disservice to Contreras. He’s going to be a good one for the Pirates.

        1. Looks like the Pirates did make a good move with him in the Yankee trade. He was listed as one the top pitchers in his 2016 class
          ….”… the Yankees were able to sign one of the best pitching prospects on the market, righthander Roansy Contreras, for $250,000 on July 2….., the top-ranked pitcher in the DR last year. Contreras, 17, struck out five of the nine batters he faced last year at the MLB international showcase, flashing a three-pitch starter’s mix. Contreras isn’t that big (6 feet, 175 pounds), but he has a strong lower half with good arm action and not much effort to his delivery. His fastball sits at 88-91 mph and has touched 93. His true curveball is a separator, a big-breaking pitch with deep, downer action, good shape and tight spin. It’s a swing-and-miss pitch that already flashes above-average”

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