A Week Later

The Phillies completed a four-game sweep of the Washington Nationals Sunday.  They have a five-game winnings streak, have won 10 of their last eleven, and have won 11 of 13 since their 3-game flop against the Chicago Cubs after the All-Star break.

The Phillies are hot.  Their hitters are hot.  Their pitchers are better than effective.  Their bullpen is better than just competent.  They have passed the San Diego Padres for the second wild card slot, and are within three games of the Atlanta Braves.  A real test comes after their 3-game series against the Miami Marlins when they play 7 of 10 games against the division-leading New York Mets.  A good showing in those seven games could firmly cement the Phillies’ position in the wild card race.

A look ahead at the Phillies’ schedule is very encouraging.  After the second (and final Mets’ series), they play 22 games in seven very winnable series before 19 games in six mostly competitive series in the final 3 weeks of the season.  They’re on a pace to win more than the 85-86 games I anticipated.

The return of Bryce Harper for the stretch run in September will be a big boost for the team.  Unfortunately, barring injury, I don’t see any way that Darick Hall survives Harper’s return.  Even if Harper could throw, he would push Castellanos to DH and Darick to a 4-man bench that already includes a backup catcher, 4th outfielder/infielder, and 2 middle infielders who can also play third base and who have stood in the outfield on two occasions.  A September call-up is possible but not guaranteed.  His chief competition would likely be Camargo, Munoz, Marchan, and maybe Sands or Muzziotti depending on which position they wish to bolster.  Of course, this might all be moot if Harper doesn’t return until after August 31st.  We’ll see.

At 60-48, the Phillies are firmly in third place in the division, 9.5 behind the Mets and 3.0 behind Atlanta.  Miami and Washington are effectively out of competition for anything other than positioning in the draft pool.

The East and West Divisions are pretty much locked up in both leagues with both Centrals providing the only division races, so far.

The American League Wild Card race is among 6 or 7 teams depending on whether you think Boston still has a chance.

The National League race is probably down to a four-team race with the Central Division loser missing the playoffs.

The Phillies are a half-game ahead of the Padres for the second wild card berth, with 2 fewer losses and three games in hand.

By merit of the first tie-breaker (head-to-head), the Phillies hold an advantage over  Milwaukee (4-2), St. Louis (4-3), Los Angeles (4-3), San Diego (4-3), and Colorado (5-2).

They clinched against the Pirates (4-0) with 3 to play and Washington (10-2 with 7 to play).

They are ahead of Arizona (2-1 with 3 to play) and Miami (6-4 with 9 to play).

They are tied with Atlanta (6-6) with 7 to play.

They trail New York (3-9 with 7 to play), SanFrancisco (1-2 with 3 to play), and the Cubs (0-3) with 3 to play.

They have 7 games against the Reds.

They have a 2-game series against the Blue Jays in September and close the season with 3 games in Houston.

The Phillies’ division record is 25-21 (the same as Atlanta).  Their record against the other NL divisions is 28-19 (slightly lower than Atlanta, but we hold 7 games in hand with 2 fewer losses).  Their interleague record, which doesn’t matter in tie-breakers, is 7-8.

MLB has replaced tie-breaking playoff games with a set of tie-breaking criteria.

  1. Head-to-head record
  2. Intradivision winning percentage
  3. Interdivision winning percentage
  4. Best record in the final 81 intraleague games of the season
  5. Best record in the final 82 intraleague games of the season (provided the game added is not between the tied teams), and continue one game back until the tie is broken

If the Phillies win the games they are supposed to win and get their share of the tough series, they could win over 90 games.  I can’t believe I typed that.  But, they are finally hitting the way we all expected, the pitching by the starters and the bullpen has proved that their outcomes aren’t a fluke, and Harper returns 3-4 weeks (we all hope).

I don’t think I want to play the Central Division winner in the first round anymore.  Let’s get those 3 home games for the first wild card.

This gives you a place to talk about the Phillies for the week.

And, in other news around baseball, Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mickey Moniak has a fracture to the tip of his left middle finger that will sideline him, but he hasn’t been ruled out for the rest of the season.  Mickey will likely go onto the IL later this week.  He had played in 5 games with the Halos, and went 4-14 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, and a hit by pitch.  His small sample slash is .286/.333/.714/1.047.  Here’s hoping for some good news when they re-evaluate the injury in 7-10 days.

Here are the transactions that were reported (or uncovered) this week.  Familia’s release hasn’t been recorded, yet.

8/07/2022 – Lehigh Valley sent LHP Scott Moss on a rehab assignment to Jersey Shore
8/06/2022 – Phillies released CF Odubel Herrera
8/06/2022 – Phillies sent LHP Ryan Sherriff outright to Lehigh Valley
8/06/2022 – C Gustavo Sosa assigned to FCL Phillies
8/06/2022 – 1B Ty Penner assigned to FCL Phillies
8/06/2022 – OF Dakota Kotowski assigned to FCL Phillies
8/06/2022 – 1B Cole Moore assigned to FCL Phillies
8/06/2022 – C Jordan Dissin assigned to FCL Phillies
8/06/2022 – LHP Mavis Graves assigned to FCL Phillies
8/05/2022 – Lehigh Valley placed RHP Cam Bedrosian on the 7-day IL
8/05/2022 – LHP Braeden Fausnaught assigned to FCL Phillies
8/05/2022 – LHP Danny Wilkinson assigned to FCL Phillies
8/05/2022 – Phillies optioned 3B Yairo Munoz to Lehigh Valley
8/05/2022 – Phillies recalled SS Nick Maton from Lehigh Valley
8/05/2022 – RHP Andrew Schultz assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
8/05/2022 – Reading transferred RHP Tyler McKay to the Development List
8/05/2022 – SS Kendall Simmons assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
8/05/2022 – C Andrick Nava assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
8/05/2022 – Jersey Shore released C Freddy Francisco
8/05/2022 – Jersey Shore sent LHP Keylan Killgore on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
8/05/2022 – Clearwater activated 2B Alexeis Azuaje from the 7-day IL
8/05/2022 – Clearwater sent RHP Cam Wynne on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
8/05/2022 – 3B Matt Alifano assigned to Clearwater
8/04/2022 – FCL Phillies released C Oscar Gonzalez
8/04/2022 – Phillies activated SS Jean Segura from the 60-day IL
8/04/2022 – Phillies activated OF Brandon Marsh
8/04/2022 – Phillies activated RHP Kyle Gibson from the bereavement list
8/04/2022 – Phillies activated RHP Noah Syndergaard
8/04/2022 – Phillies released SS Didi Gregorius
8/04/2022 – Lehigh Valley released RHP James Dykstra
8/04/2022 – Jersey Shore sent C Anthony Quirion on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
8/04/2022 – Reading sent SS Madison Stokes on a rehab assignment to Jersey Shore
8/04/2022 – RHP Aidan Anderson assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
8/04/2022 – Reading activated RHP Carlo Reyes
8/03/2022 – Phillies activated RHP David Robertson
8/03/2022 – Phillies optioned CF Simon Muzziotti to Reading
8/03/2022 – Phillies recalled CF Simon Muzziotti from Reading
8/03/2022 – Phillies optioned RHP Francisco Morales to Lehigh Valley
8/03/2022 – Phillies optioned LHP Bailey Falter to Lehigh Valley
8/03/2022 – Phillies optioned RHP Mark Appel to Lehigh Valley
8/03/2022 – LHP Andrew Vasquez assigned to Lehigh Valley
8/03/2022 – Reading activated CF Hunter Markwardt from the 7-day IL
8/03/2022 – C Ryan Leitch assigned to Clearwater
8/03/2022 – Phillies traded SS Drew Maggi to Pittsburgh
8/02/2022 – Jersey Shore activated C Arturo De Freitas
8/02/2022 – Jersey Shore sent 3B McCarthy Tatum on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
8/02/2022 – Clearwater activated OF Troy Schreffler
8/02/2022 – Clearwater activated OF Cade Fergus
8/02/2022 – OF Chad Castillo assigned to Clearwater
8/02/2022 – Clearwater activated C Caleb Ricketts
8/02/2022 – Phillies designated RHP Jeurys Familia for assignment
8/02/2022 – Phillies designated CF Odubel Herrera for assignment
8/02/2022 – Angels traded RHP Noah Syndergaard to Phillies for CF Mickey Moniak and RF Jadiel Sanchez.
8/02/2022 – Angels traded OF Brandon Marsh to Phillies for C Logan O’Hoppe.
8/02/2022 – Cubs traded RHP David Robertson to Phillies for RHP Ben Brown
8/02/2022 – Phillies recalled RHP Francisco Morales from Reading
8/02/2022 – Phillies claimed LHP Andrew Vasquez off waivers from Toronto
8/02/2022 – C Arturo De Freitas assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
8/02/2022 – OF Cade Fergus assigned to Clearwater
8/02/2022 – C Caleb Ricketts assigned to Clearwater
8/02/2022 – OF Troy Schreffler assigned to Clearwater
8/02/2022 – Reading sent LHP Josh Hendrickson on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
8/01/2022 – Phillies designated LHP Ryan Sherriff for assignment
8/01/2022 – Phillies activated LHP Ryan Sherriff from the 60-day IL
8/01/2022 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Cam Bedrosian from the 7-day IL
8/01/2022 – Lehigh Valley released C Edgar Cabral
8/01/2022 – RHP Colton Eastman assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
8/01/2022 – C Karl Ellison assigned to Lehigh Valley from Jersey Shore
8/01/2022 – RHP Ben Brown assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
8/01/2022 – Reading activated OF Carlos De La Cruz
8/01/2022 – OF Carlos De La Cruz assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
8/01/2022 – 2B Nicolas Torres assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
8/01/2022 – CF Marcus Lee Sang assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
8/01/2022 – RHP Rodolfo Sanchez assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
8/01/2022 – Phillies signed RHP Nathan Karaffa
8/01/2022 – Phillies signed RHP Alex McFarlane
8/01/2022 – Phillies signed OF Emaarion Boyd
8/01/2022 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Eric Garcia to a minor league contract
8/01/2022 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Jack Dallas to a minor league contract
8/01/2022 – Phillies signed free agent 3B Otto Kemp to a minor league contract
8/01/2022 – Phillies signed free agent LHP Andrew Walling to a minor league contract
8/01/2022 – Phillies signed free agent LHP Braeden Fausnaught to a minor league contract
8/01/2022 – Phillies signed free agent C Ryan Leitch to a minor league contract
8/01/2022 – Phillies signed free agent 1B Ty Penner to a minor league contract
8/01/2022 – Jersey Shore activated CF Marcus Lee Sang
8/01/2022 – Jersey Shore activated 2B Nicolas Torres
8/01/2022 – FCL Phillies released LHP Nick Fanti
7/31/2022 – Reading released SS AJ Graffanino
7/31/2022 – Jersey Shore released 3B DJ Stewart
7/31/2022 – Clearwater released SS Albert Jerez
7/31/2022 – Phillies signed free agent C Cole Moore to a minor league contract
7/31/2022 – Phillies activated 2B Edmundo Sosa
7/31/2022 – Phillies optioned 3B Johan Camargo to Lehigh Valley
7/30/2022 – FCL Phillies released RHP DJ Jefferson
7/30/2022 – FCL Phillies released LHP Sergio Sanchez
7/30/2022 – FCL Phillies placed RHP Drew Garrett on the placed on the IL-Full Season
7/30/2022 – RHP Drew Garrett assigned to FCL Phillies
7/30/2022 – FCL Phillies placed OF Gabriel Rincones Jr. on the placed on the IL-Full Season
7/30/2022 – OF Gabriel Rincones Jr. assigned to FCL Phillies
7/28/2022 – RHP Jonh Henriquez assigned to DSL Phillies Red
7/25/2022 – Phillies signed free agent C Guillermo Rosario to a minor league contract
6/07/2022 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Jonh Henriquez to a minor league contract

305 thoughts on “A Week Later

  1. Hoping for some good news for MM when he is re-evaluated. I will continue to root for him. Nick Maton played a great game, and I know it was vs the Nats, but I am feeling really good about the team. We need to keep it going against the Marlins, and pay back the Mets for some of the losses we suffered already.

    1. Hi Matt. I too feel good about the Phillies at this point. I think it was around now calendar wise that both the Nats and Braves took off on their runs to the WS titles.

      Grandson goes back to school on Wednesday. I think at this moment he is going to return to the team he played for this Summer. He had a couple offers to switch teams but as of now the coach for next Summer will be a college coach from Michigan. Grandson seems to really like him. So, we will see how it goes. Coach is a young guy with lots of enthusiasm. Next to the injuries that was a piece that was missing at times this year

      The month of Augus I see very few Phillies games. We have two concessions trailers at the Indiana State Fair that runs for 24 days. I am only home on Monday evenings and the Phillies have been off the last two. I just hope the hot streak continues.

  2. Thanks for checking in, Don. Hoping your Grandson has a terrific year. Good luck to you at the State Fair! Hope it’s a big success for you.

  3. Where is everyone today? It is just about time to concentrate on basketball. Indiana is a crazy basketball state. But baseball is his favorite at this time.

  4. I don’t think Nick Maton’s energy on the field is just for show. He may have the makings of an exciting young player. Thomson needs to give Nick ample playing time so the Phillies can decide if he can hold down 2b next year. If that is the case, Stott stays a SS and $$ can be spent on a high quality SP rather than in wooing Trea Turner.

    1. There’s nowhere for Maton to play right now. Thompson can work him in when possible but he’s not going to get a lot of starts over Bohm, Stott or Segura. He might be the first lefty bat off the bench, provided Hall isn’t on the bench too. It’s too bad he got hurt when he did; just bad timing.

      The Phillies are just going to have to do some self scouting based largely on what he did in AAA to determine if Maton’s worth a shot at 2B.

      1. They seem to view Sosa as a possible every day option… if they can’t land a large SS fish next offseason maybe they could roll with a Maton/Sosa platoon at 2B and spend the money on the pen or a #3 starter.

        1. If the Phillies sign a big FA at SS, then what’s the point of trading for Sosa? Having Sosa and Maton on the bench erodes their value, unless you feel that their ceilings are backups. Stott will play every day at 2B.

          If they don’t sign a SS, then it makes more sense. Stott take SS, and Sosa/Maton in a 2B platoon. Then you start giving more playing time to the ones who play well.

          1. Harper seems to want Turner, and the club has a history of acting on Harper’s wants. That said, I think Turner is going to command an 8 year deal. Not sure I’d want to be tied to Turner for 8 seasons. Then you add in the loss of another second round draft pick … . Sosa and Maton make a whole lot of sense as cheap alternatives, and would allow the team to spend big bucks on another top SP. Maybe they get a guy like Rodon on a shorter term/higher AAV deal.
            A rotation of Wheeler, Nola, Rodon, Ranger, McGarry in 2023 would be pretty nice.

            1. Turner is going to be a FA at close to age 30. Giving him a 8 year deal is insane. Looking at the history of Jimmy Rollins, after age 29, he had 1 good year, 5 average years, and 2 bad ones. And Rollins was very durable for his career. I think Trea would give you 3-4 good years, 1-2 average years, and 3 bad ones. I’ll pass on that.

            2. A case could be made that Turner is the missing piece to a Phillies World Series given his ability as a leadoff hitter and defensive ability at short stop so I can see them splurging and spending the 2nd round pick (but we saw where the missing bonus money hurt them). He’s a winner (which the front office values) and he’s a Harper guy.

              I’d give him the Javier Baez 6 years $140 million but I wouldn’t go beyond that for him but for the reasons we’ve all stated I could see him getting more. I’m not sure LA lets him leave unless they want to start Vargas at 2B and Lux at SS and spend on Kershaw/Anderson.

    2. Maton seems to field well enough and can play multiple positions. He has also developed better on base skills, which is enormously important. But what has me excited is that he looks like he has the ability to really drive the ball for power while not selling out to pull everything. That homer he hit was crushed, as was the double and single was a thing of beauty too (he went the other way). I think they need to give this kid a chance to prove he’s for real. With Maton, and perhaps a lower level free agent (not sure who – need to do my homework on that), they can move on from Segura to free up more cash. But I think there might be a cheap, first division regular lurking in Maton and if I'[m the Phillies, I give him all the extra infield at bats In can in the next few months to see if he’s for real.

      1. ‘perhaps a lower level free agent ‘…they have Munoz, Sosa and Camargo all available to feel those roles….and they all at one time in their past history, had higher expectations from their original clubs.
        Munoz, especially with the Cardinals, but he kind of mentally goofed that up.

        1. Yeah, I hear you, but none are proven major leaguers. So I guess you could let Maton and the other three fight it out and, hopefully, one dominant player emerges. If that doesn’t work you might be looking for a player at next year’s trade deadline. Buying a free agent lowers the need for that type of mid-year trade where, let’s face it, you always pay a premium. I mean, look, 2 months of David Robertson may have cost us a mid-rotation pitcher. Prices are steep.

      2. I agree I love Maton so much so and I don’t think they would have the guts to do it but I would give him 2-3 starts a week over Segura down the stretch.

        Of the two players one is more likely to be here next year than the other meaning he is more a part of your future than the other.

        1. One thing I LOVE about Rob Thomson is he consistently players younger guys with upside. I want to watch Thomson over the course of a full year, but, so far, he’s the best Phillies manager I can remember and I’m not just saying that because he’s winning.

  5. Let’s say the Ben Brown trade works out as planned for both sides. That Robertson turns out to be a high impact reliever that gets us through some tough spots in must win games and is clearly a difference maker that gets us a playoff spot. In this scenario, it is very debatable that we would have made the playoffs without him. Also, Ben goes on to have a very good career in Chicago. Personally, I think that he is a reliever at the MLB level, but let’s say that he turns out to be a SP akin to Eflin. Very good some starts but inconsistent enough to be an elite SP.

    So the trade is playoffs this year for a quality MLB SP. do you do that deal? If no, you are giving up the playoffs in this scenario.

    1. I still do it.
      if Robertson turns out to be the ‘ high impact reliever’ the last two months, then the play-off experience(win or lose, akin to the 2007 Phillies) alone for the team goes a long way towards the coming years.
      Further, Robertson more than likely will get offered a two year deal.

      1. My feelings are mixed on that trade still. Just to make the playoffs I don’t like it. If we were on a run of playoff appearances but weren’t advancing to the NLCS yeah I do it.

        I want to build an actual WS contending team. I could be happy just making the playoffs if done with the organic young talent in the system.

        Giving up young talent like that just to squeak in only to find out from it that we are still far away from winning divisions and championships not sure about that.

        1. DMAR….not many teams in MLB history, especially since the expanded play-offs decades ago began, have gone from a non-play-off team one year, to the WS winner in the following season..
          Baby steps, so to speak,
          That is why i like to see them get the experience of play-off baseball, and also the taste in their mouth , especially if they lose
          Like I said, the 2007 loss to the ROX was a lesson learned for the Phillies.

      2. Yeah, I got to agree with that, this deal isn’t long term and you have to get to the post-season every now and then to keep the fan interest up and a chance to smell the roses!

    2. Ben Brown was a lot to give up but it’s a sellers market and Robertson stabilizes the back end of the pen and gives them depth if they lose Seranthony or Hand. I do that trade 10/10 times.

      1. Agree. While I initially had pause at the possibility of acquiring Robertson after his last “non” stint with the Phillies, Ben Brown is a highly regarded and promising yet unproven prospect in a win now organization. And notwithstanding the less than stellar defense, this roster can do lots of damage once firing on all cylinders as they are now, and a formidable top 3 in the starting rotation. 15 or 20 years ago, perhaps you don’t make this trade, but if Ben Brown turned out to be Nick Pivetta after keeping him, we’d feel worse than if we contend for a ring after trading him and he turns out to be John Smoltz, especially if Abel, Painter and McGarry turn out to be close to what we anticipate.

    3. Also, he’s probably not going to be an Eflin type starter for the Phillies. He’s clearly behind Painter, McGarry, and Abel. So in two years (I’m not rembering where Nola and Wheeler are contract wise) let say you have two of mcg, painter, and abel in the rotation to join w wheeler, Suarez and nola. Then the other is your depth 6. Brown would at best probably be your 7th. So making the playoffs this year is better than have a 7th depth starter in 2 or 3 years

      1. I agree that David Robertson gives the Phillies another back end option in the bullpen. But it was a heavy cost. If Browns becomes a 3, that’s crazy valuable. And thinking that McGarry/Painter/Abel all make is possible but unlikely.

        For example, Jessie Biddle’s HIgh-A numbers at age 20 was pretty good. Then he hit a wall at Reading.

        There’s no guarantees until they prove it at the ML level. So you need to have as pitching as you can.

        1. I do not like the Sosa, Robertson and Marsh trades. Do like the Thor trade although watching him pitch the other day brought back memories of Jerad (batting practice pitcher) Eickhoff.

          Bryan Rincon making his debut today in the FCL. 1-2 with a double and 3 rbi’s. Looks like the high school draftees will get some time soon.

          1. I’m curious why you don’t like the Sosa trade, it makes a lot more sense after they moved on from Didi. Their middle infield depth is fantastic and by a lot of accounts Sosa was highly sought after by other smart teams (Red Sox, Yankees).

            I understand Jojo was a favorite around here but I never watched him pitch and thought he would be anything more than a middle reliever which are easy enough to find.

            1. I like Jo Jo and we don’t know if he will develop into a starter or stay a reliever due to the TJ surgery. He just came back. We will know more next year at this time.

              Jo Jo is the kind of guy the Phillies always seem to need to “buy” at the trade deadline. I can see next year or the year after the Phillies trading for a Jo Jo type at the deadline and giving up more than they got in Sosa. Between Stott, Camargo, Munoz and Maton I just don’t see the great need for him. Pitching is more important than a reserve infielder. Been wrong before and could be again.

  6. Don’t know how many of you got to watch TMac and John Kruk host the Players Lounge on Sunday’s broadcast. There was definitely some awkward moments. I’m not going to get into them here, but you can check out Jomboy on twitter for an example. What I did want to mention was this: IMO, Gary Mathews is God’s gift to television. I know Comcast handed him his pink slip after they signed their mega deal w/the Phillies, but listening to him with McCarthy and Kruk this weekend (even for a short while) was awesome! He’s just natural and fun. He is by no means a perfect broadcaster, but that’s what makes him so charming for me. I compare him to Larry “Bud” Melman (😁😂🤣). I have nothing against the current group of color analysts (I especially like RAJ), but if I were producing Phillies games for TV, I’d include Gary Mathews for an inning (at least for all home games). They could package it as “The Sixth Inning With Sarge” or something, and make (even more) money on it by having it sponsored.
    That’s it. Just wanted to give some love to Gary Mathews, and pay tribute to one of the most fun former Phillies.

    1. I enjoyed Gary Matthews as a player and a person but in the booth was not enjoyable. He was called among my family Captain Obvious, he was slow on the uptake, but he is such a good guy and truthful. I could take him for an inning but not anymore.

    2. I too loved Sarge and like the entire rotation. I think it keeps things fresh…

      I like it when they have Jimmy on as well. Out of 162 games there is definitely room to sprinkle those guys in.

    3. The Players Lounge was fun with the exception of Pete Rose. My goodness, after being shunned for that many years, he couldn’t behave and not swear on TV for one weekend? He’s a completely untethered and unrepentant person – and I haven’t missed him at all notwithstanding all his greatness as a baseball player.

      1. I’ve hated Rose for 52 years, ever since he willfully destroyed Ray Fosse (my favorite player when I was 9) in a meaningless exhibition game. I just watched the replay and had somehow forgotten that he lowered his shoulder at the last second to maximize the damage.

  7. v1, in your scenario, I still do the trade. I think the organization has ID’d Painter, Abel and McGarry as the untouchable arms, as well as hinting that we may see any of them in 2023. If the choice is the trade or missing the Playoffs, I want to make the Playoffs.

  8. This kid (Mason McRae) is very sharp. IMO, he’s a young Kiley McDaniel (even better with the metrics). I think there’s a good chance he’s eventually hired by a progressive MLB franchise after he graduates from VCU.

    ⬇ ⬇ ⬇ ⬇ ⬇

    #28 Griff McGarry “is what we thought Jack Leiter would be”.
    #30 Andrew Painter “might just be the next Justin Verlander”.
    #32 Mick Abel “looks like your prototypical middle of the rotation starter with the stuff and build to put together a decade of productive outings in a starter role.”

    Others of note:

    12. Curtis Mead
    41. Jack Leiter
    51. Kyle Hurt *former Phillie draft pick (who the LADs stole from the Marlins)
    77. Logan O’Hoppe

    1. The potential Verlander comparison with Painter had occurred to me: his sheer size and dominant fastball. This will especially be true if/when Painter fills out more. Part of Verlander’s young dominance was that he was/is so physically dominating. I had the impression that he intimidated hitters to the point where they were scared of him. Now, if Painter can get the f-you attitude snarl as well, then he is the new Verlander.

      1. Painter is extremely polished for a 19 year old and nothing seems to faze him. I can really see him getting to the big later next year after starting the year a double A. His fastball is electic but in that last game, he seemed to pitch off his slider. It was an incredible performace.

        1. Agreed.

          On his current trajectory, Painter probably makes the big leagues mid to late next year, when he is 20 years old. I am guess he gets at least 10 starts in AA and then they’ll assess where he goes next. He has excellent command and can throw good breaking balls over the plate with ease. His FB is in the 96-98 MPH range and he can command it pretty much anywhere he wants to throw it. My guess is that, soon after he comes up, he’ll look a lot like Zach Wheeler, but with more projection down the road. He is our highest ceiling pitching prospect since Cole Hamels (yes, Sixto had a very high ceiling, but he never performed like this and he wasn’t born with Andrew Painter’s literally perfect pitching body).

          Here’s what’s amazing. Right now, Griff McGarry has better stuff than Painter. He doesn’t have the same command/control – but the pure stuff is better and Abel’s stuff is at least as good as Painter’s. Of course Painter has better command than the other two and he’s still just 19 and is just now filling out – he has more projection (which is INSANE).

  9. Matt Gelb has an article on some of our draft picks, having the scout that first touted them talk about the kids. I found it a great read, and it’s these guys jobs to get it right, I know, but reading about the prospects got me more excited about this year’s draft than I had been previously. I am interested in what you guys think if you get a chance to read it

    1. Agree, matt. The “draft pick summaries through the eyes of the scout” article is one of Gelb’s best articles every year.

  10. I’m warming to the idea of Maton as our 2b in 2023 instead of Segura’s option year. Of course the assistant GM Bryce Harper likes Trea Turner which would put Stott at 2b, unless Turner was agreeable to play CF should the front office deem Marsh as a trade commodity in the off season. Musical chairs pending what money they decide to invest where…..I still prefer an impact leadoff bat in CF while allowing a young keystone combo to grow together with the corners covered with lumber if not leather.

  11. I don’t think there is unlimited $, and I don’t think Hoskins gets traded to free up any, and I think they like Stott at SS. So, my early projection for the off season is adding a #3 SP. Plus, there will be BP needs with so many guys on expiring deals, Robertson, Hand, Knebel. I would love Trea Turner, but they can only do so much.

    1. Here’s what I think will happen (and God knows, I could be completely wrong).

      1. Hoskins agrees to a deal for 2023 (or arb result – but he stays with the team), but no long term deal.
      2. Hand is re-signed.
      3. Robertson is re-signed (one year with a team option and buyout for the second year – he will give them a discount because of the disastrous first contract).
      4. Knebel is not re-signed.
      5. Eflin option is declined.
      6. Segura option is declined.
      7. Gibson is signed to a 2-year contract for around $18 m total (he is soooo worth it – he’s not a stud but the dude flat out knows how to pitch).
      8. Team will be tempted by Trea Turner, but ultimately adds a big dollar pitcher, perhaps on a pillow contract. Team will have one of the best rotations in the big leagues with three studs on the way and the ability to trade from a position of strength throughout the season.
      9. Maton is given a chance to win the second base job but has to fight it out with others, perhaps even a low dollar ($5-8 million) free agent (don’t ask me who – just spitballing here).

      1. If Hoskins stays, then what happens with Hall? He’s going back to Lehigh? And no, Hall will NOT be platooning at DH with Castellanos. The Phillies didn’t pay Castellanos $20M per year to be in a platoon.

        I can see Gibson getting 2 years. You leave the last starter spot to be Falter/Sanchez/FA for 1 year. Hopefully McGarry can be up by mid-2023. The timeline for Painter/Abel will be more mid-2024.

        1. Hall will still get plenty of ABs – I’m not worried about that. He and Hoskins can co-exist for a year and, in any event, experience shows players will get hurt and he’ll pick up even more at bats that way.

          1. I don’t think they will leave a spot open in the rotation for McGarry – way too much uncertainty and projection for a team that wants to contend. If he’s that good and forces the issue, they will be able to trade someone else, but one starter (at least) almost always gets hurt and reinforcements are needed – he’s the ace in the hole.

            1. If you feel that McGarry is close, why wouldn’t you leave the door open for him? Nola/Wheeler/Suarez are locked in. You want to give Gibson a spot, fine. The last spot could be competition with whoever you want in ST. If the winner succeeds during the year, that’s fine, leave McGarry at Lehigh. But if they struggle, McGarry is right there to take his place.

            2. There WILL be a spot for him if he performs and is ready.

              Good teams don’t plan on having 5 guys. They always plan on having more because guys always get injured. But if, by some stroke, nobody gets hurt, someone else either gets traded or bumped from the rotation to make room for him and it could give you a valuable trade chip. I don’t think I can ever recall a guy who could pitch lights out not find his way quickly into a rotation. Don’t worry about it. If he pitches to his potential, he’ll play.

          2. Do like the Braves develop talent and boast about it and trade for better talent ; i.e. John Smoltz. Fred McGriff, Etc.

          3. I’m not sure why you think Hall is going to get ABs. He’ll be lucky to play 2 games a week (1 at 1B and 1 at DH). So he’ll play around 50 game and get around 160ABs. Is that enough?

            1. Agree Hoskins and Hall cannot co-exist one goes in a trade and nets you something of need.

            2. Not so. Schwarber, Castellano, Harper and Hoskins, among others, are all going to need days off and when they do, Hall can slide in as the DH (or when Hoskins is out, the first baseman). In addition, someone always gets hurt and he’ll indirectly take most of those ABs. He may not get 400 ABs, but he will play a bunch and shoul get 300 ABs if he performs.

              And, unless he morphs into a superstar in the next 2 months here, he’s not going to displace Hoskins to start next year (nor should he), but he could become the heir apparent for 2024. If there’s anything this year has taught us, it’s that Hoskins and Hall are not redundant.

            3. How about a Dombrowski off-season block buster that only he can navigate:
              ….if the other side are acceptable of course.

              Rhys, Andrew Painter, Brandon Marsh to the Angels for,
              Mike Trout and 60% of his contract.?
              Trout has a NTC in his contract, but he could waive that for Philadelphia,
              just maybe I’d think!
              Besides the obvious players going to LA,
              Moreno can now offer Ohtani his worth in a LTC.

            4. I seriously doubt Hall gets 300 ABs. That implies that he’ll get into 75 games so he’s playing almost half the season. He can only play DH or 1B. Last season, Brad Miller and Torreyes were the only bench guys who got 300+ ABs. Miller was playing all over the field, and played a lot of 1B when Rhys got hurt. Torreyes played a lot because Bohm was hitting poorly. If guys stay healthy, no way bench guys should come close to 300 ABs unless there’s a platoon.

            5. Yeah, you’re missing my point about Hall’s ABs. If Harper is not playing DH next year, he could get 300 ABs playing first and DH. I am assuming he plays DH when, for example, Harper or Schwarber have a day off because Castellanos would play the field. And I’m assuming there will be injuries and can slot into the lineup in the same way when players are injured (just as he does now). And, fyi, even if he ends up being a good major league hitter, I am expecting some regression from him next year as the league adjusts to him (this is typical and expected – sophomore slumps aren’t about bad luck, they are generally about league-wide adjustments).

        2. I’d think Hall would be traded for a relief arm (not sure the quality) or kept for depth in AAA.

      2. 1. I think they make an attempt to move Rhys in the off season first, then default to your plan.
        2. I don’t think they’ll resign Hand.
        3 – 7. agree
        8 – 9. Though I would love to have Turner, we are almost out of the financial abyss we have created and a successful youthful keystone combination where one of them hits would bode well for the future. Intriguing chance to take, tempting.

      3. Wow Catch I pretty much think the same things.

        Except #3 will definitely be a guaranteed 2yrs.

        #7 I think they offer Gibson a fair but slightly low ball deal. Turning parts of the roster over is important to. We might seem comfortable with Gibson cause he handled the Pirates and Nationals but he’s an expensive #5.

        #8 I think Turner is their plan A and a #3 pitcher is plan B. My guess is Turner minimum 6 yrs $180.

        My other precitions:

        -Viars or Sang will be next yrs Sanchez.
        -Ortiz and/or a catcher will be used to net a lefty reliever in the minors.
        -Ethan Wilson will rebound and restore most but not all his value.

    2. Your top 5 projected payrolls for 2023

      White Sox-166

      The Phillies currently drop to 4 in 2024 with projected payroll of $128. Plenty of room to go over LT for at least a season.

  12. Guys keep the Phillies train going this week. I will be back Sunday evening to see all of your responses. Hopefully another 4 or 5 wins for the Phillies. I do at the end of the night get an update on the evening game. Let them keep moving up the pecking order. Braves are in sight now. It does seem as though the Mets never lose. Wow. Have a great week.

  13. I don’t believe the Phillies want a $25 CF (Turner) to keep Stott at SS. The Phils have to start being a little more frugal in the future. This team needs to balance the high salaried guys with some inexpensive talent.

    My cable provider gives me all the Red Sox, Yankee, and Met games (Cohen, Hernandez, and Darling are exceptional) so I got to see a lot of their games this past weekend. The Sox are tumbling, the Yanks are stumbling, and the Mets are hot, hot, hot.

    The Mets have lined up Scherzer, deGrom, and Bassitt to pitch this coming weekend. Against the Braves and Reds (last night), the three pitched 20.2 innings and surrendered two runs. Diaz came in to close out two of the games.

    In the next two weeks, the Phillies have to be really careful. If they lose 4 of 6 versus the Marlins and the other team and drop 5 out of 7 to the Mets, they will be back to fighting for that last wild card spot. They need to step up.

    1. Good points and, I agree with you that they are unlikely to sign Turner, but I do think they will add a big free agent pitcher because, ultimately, they have to compete with the Mets and Dodgers if they want to sniff a title and I think they also want some “insurance” for a few years later when they may decide not to extend either Wheeler or Nola.

      1. I don’t know! What BH wants BH seems to get and after that night in the booth I’m convinced they go hard after Turner. And if Bryce feels that way about Trea my guess is the feeling is mutual.

        Now I am not saying he would take an under market deal but now is not the time to try and pull back on the spending.

        1. DMAR….Phillies do seem to lean towards whatever Bryce recommends.
          Turner will be 30 next season, so he will want 5 plus one option year (hopefully mutual or club with a buy-out)….AAV IMO $25M or 26M

    2. I think you can pretty much pencil in the ALCS as Yankees-Astros which will be one heck of a series. The Yankees are stumbling a bit yes but I see it as the summer doldrums for them. That’s a really solid team they have.

      Mariners are interesting. They play both the Yankees and the Astros tuff.

      The Astro’s seem to have the Yankees #

      I think any of the Mets Braves and Dodgers could make it to the NLCS. If DeGrom and Scherzer remain healthy and that is a big if I say they can hold off the Braves and take the Dodgers in 7.

      The Padres since their mega trade are in a tail spin. They lost to the Giants last night 1-0 and prior to that were embarrassed by the Dodgers.

      1. Yeah, San Diego is always seems to be missing something besides raw talent. I see the playoff race like this…

        NL – in a short series, Phillies will be dangerous…
        1 LAD
        2 NYM
        3 STL
        4 PHI
        5 ATL
        6 SD

        AL – ‘stros are team to beat but M’s are sleepers…
        1 HOU
        2 NYY
        3 CWS – Chisox emerge from the central
        4 SEA
        5 TB
        6 TOR

      2. I think the Phillies have a fighting chance this year but your analysis is why I think the FA dollars this winter go get another starter and it might be Rondon.

        1. Giants will try bringing him back, and they do have the money available to that end, whether they want to outbid another team remains to be seen.

          ………… Zaidi said. “First of all, we feel great about (Rodón’s) health and he hasn’t had any issues this year and obviously has pitched really well for us. But if he makes it to the end of the year and opts out, we have the ability to extend the qualifying offer. We certainly will have discussions about bringing him back (on a new deal). He’s been a great Giant”

        2. I think Eovaldi is the starter they sign given Dombrowski’s history with him.

          If I had my druthers the Phillies would lock up Aaron Nola long term before committing to Carlos Rodon or another outside pitcher.

          1. Digging deeper into the weeds on Rodon…and he would be an ideal pick-up for sure.
            He will be 31 years old for next season…..if he opts out, which seems likely now, he is leaving $22.5M on the table.
            Giants will make their push for him….. with right now a $99M payroll for 2023…plenty of money there.
            So any team wishing his services will need to , after bidding ends, come up with IMO around $25/26M AAV over 5 years.

            And can see your point….Nola needs to be brought back and it will be a tight squeeze with Nola’s contract on the books and trying to wedge Rodon’s money in there as well..

          2. DD’s first job in the offseason is to extend Aaron Nola. Nola is currently at 4.4 WAR. He’s going to get paid once he become a FA in 2024. We need to see if he’s willing to give us a discount. 5 years, $115M?

            1. I do think Nola will command a few shekels more than Wheeler’s AAV of $23.6M contract signed in 2020…..5/$125M

            2. Oh yeah, Nola will get 5/$125m – they would be smart to sign him to that extension now.

            3. I’m thinking Wheelers contract as well for Nola except tacking on a 6th yr with a $7 million buyout. Making his overall guaranteed money 5/$125.

  14. How about the fact that Jazz Chisholm is still the Marlins leader in HRs and RBI and hasn’t played since June.

    Just saw that and was shocked.

  15. Somebody tell me why Marcus Lee sang isn’t the top hitting prospect in the philles system now that Ohoppe is gone. He appears in almost every statical offensive category here. He even has 41 RBIs at the cut off but is batting 1st which limits RBI. He is 21 at double A. It one thing for a prospect to be top 5 in a category or two but he is top 5 in almost every.


    1. Lee Sang’s numbers are skewed by a hot start in a small sample at a new level. Frankly, in my opinion, he wasn’t even the best hitting prospect on his team in Clearwater.

      That’s can happen when you try to jump to conclusions from lists.

      You can be led to make incorrect assumptions. For instance, according to Lee Sang’s splits, he was the leadoff hitter in just 4 of 81 games with Clearwater, So, not much negative effect there.

      1. ..but aren’t we looking at totals for the year for all prospects that includes the previous level? How is the “hot start” in a few game impacting the total that much for all the stats? If this is the case how come Rojas didn’t appear in the top 5 in most of these category with his hot start and so many plate appearances? That is not how totals work.

        I just went to the Clearwater site to look just at his numbers from Clearwater and he is still leading them in average, and runs (even though he wasn’t batting first much like you said). His Clearwater number are still also 2 off the RBI leader and 1 off the HR leader even though he is not there anymore. I am not sure I understand what you are saying here. So he is not “top” prospect he is still only 21 and they promoted him and and threw him lead off sport and played him every game? So you are saying he is not a prospect although his .266 average over 2 level lead the minors and he has 10 HR and 19 SB? Who else in the organization is doing that?

        1. He’s not in Clearwater anymore but he does still lead that team in plate appearances so his counting numbers should still be high there.

          No one is saying that’s he’s not a prospect. The initial statement was that he’s their best hitting prospect in the system right now, which is not true.

          As other have noted as one example, Hao Yu Lee has performed better in Clearwater at a younger age with better contact skills and better counting stats in almost 100 fewer plate appearances. I see him as a better hitting prospect at this point.

          1. I agree. Hao Yu Lee is the likely the best/most intriguing hitting prospect in the system based on his age,level and production. But after him, who do you got?

    2. Um his K rate was a staggering 30% at Low A

      conversely Lee Hao YU at 19 in CLW is 20% with a BB rate of 12%. Yu is a far better hitting prospect than Sang. And he has some pop with 7 HRs. One fewer than Sang in many less PAs

      We should be paying more attention to him.

      1. You are right. Hao Yu is a beast and i likely the top hitting prospect now. But does that make Leesang not one of top hitting prospects when you compare him to the other “ranked” prospect in terms of level, age, and stats? Look at them.. Martin, Baylor, Simmons, Wilson, Garcial etc. How is Leesang not better than those guys?

        1. Sure I’m not trying to rain on Sang. He lost a year of development but Aaron wanted to know how he wasn’t THE TOP hitting prospect in the system.

          He’s not…

          One of? How deep are we going? Are we excluding Sands because he is 26 in AAA slashing 300/364/1.064 OPS?

          When I see a K rate that high in Low A I have a lot of questions about the hit tool.

          1. I am the same with the K percentage at that level with regards to the hit tool but have since soften my concern for it in today’s game where the kids don’t seem to care about K’s as much anymore (look at Brandon Marsh’s stats). Plus, whats the difference with 30 more Ks vs 30 more flyouts as long as the average is fine along with the OBP, I don’t worry about it as much anymore. Mookie Betts Ks a lot but his average suggest he has nothing wrong with his hit tool. I have also seen guys improve when they get to the higher level where the pitching is “less wild” and perhaps they develop more plate disciple. Look at O’hoppe. Sang has even improved his K percentage over the last week and a half at high A even though that is a very small sample size. He came in very Raw and has played very few games in his professional career before this year. He is certainly isn’t “the best hitting prospect” in the system but he is very intriguing especially when compared to the ranked hitters we currently have and their level, age, and production. He has done better than most of them at those same level/age (except for the K’s).

    3. Relax.. I don’t don’t know about “top” prospect but he certainly is an intriguing prospect that will likely get ranked much higher in the future. Looking at his rise and his EV from statcast, he was second to Jadiel in average EV. He was also second highest total EV to Simmons (110) with a 109.8. So yes, combined with his total actual production he will likely be considered a “top” prospect but he isn’t “the” top prospect in the organization.

      1. Lee Sang is an intriguing prospect…good size, strength and also speed.
        The one area he will have to, cut down on, is his tendency to swing and miss probably outside the zone,…..29% K rate in A ball where the pitching is not at the level of AA/AAA has to be corrected.
        As a LHB he faces RHPs more and that is an advantage……and sems to go with the pitch ion the outside to left field..40% or better to left field this season.

        1. I agree. He is still raw though and as he gets more ABs you have to hope he cuts down on K’s. I saw another Notherneast HS prospect in O’Hoppe do it. At
          Williamsport, he K at a high rate but made the adjusment at A ball. Leesang is really just getting his experience having played only 38 games each of the 2 seasons he played while losing that Covid year. It will be interesting to see how he develops and if he gains more plate disipline with more plate apperances. The power and speed combo along with a decent high average (even with the K’s) is what intrigues me the most.

        2. I agree.. a lot of it comes down to approah at the plate. Hao Yu lee has an advanced approach and you can see it. It is also expected as he played a lot of baseball, even playing at high level against Andrew Painter in the World games as a teenager. The problem with drafting young northern prospects is that the weather isn’t great and they don’t play as much baseball nor is the competition level as high as what you find in the south. Drafting a highschooler from the north is drafting tools and projectability and hopefully a kid that will be willing to learn. You then have to hope that with more expereince those prospects will develop the plate discipline and approach that southern highschoolers and college players developed with their # of ABs and game experience. Look at Jamari Baylor.. he is also a near northern highschooler, full of tools, but it hasn’t quite clicked in for him yet. For Leesang, other than his K percentage, he has developed probably more than the organization could have hoped for…. and he is still young and raw. What will he be with even more development, is what is extremely intriguing to me especially from where he is now.

          BTW.. even though its a smaller sample size, his average against lefties is almost the same as against righties except his slugging is down as expected.

          Hao Yu Lee, in my opinion, is the best/most intriguing prospect in the system now that O’hoppe is gone. I don’t know why they didn’t promote him to high A to gain experience.

  16. 3Ks – Chisholm at a very young age is the heart and soul of the Marlins. He always gives the Phillies fits and his being out is a big reason why the Phillies swept them.

    1. For whatever reason, your description of Chisholm reminded me of Jose Fernandez. Weird to think, but he would have just turned 30 on July 31.

      I hope his family, and especially his daughter, are doing well.

  17. I like Maton but don’t see him yet as an everyday player. I also think that Stott is the 2B of the future, the guy is already excellent there defensively. I think in terms of getting an SS, they’ll look at Turner (not a great defensive SS but offense and speed more than makes up for it) and should also look at Swanson if the Braves don’t resign him. Then I think Sosa/Maton could be bench infielders.

    1. Regardless of whether Segura’s option is picked up or not, I would talk to Turner about playing CF. Marsh is under control for several more years and they can figure his role out in time. Turner gives you roster flexibility with his ability as a SS. I would strongly consider Maton at 2b, at least through the spring.

      1. Turner hasn’t played CF since 2016. What makes you think he wants to go back to playing CF? And Marsh is going to get a LONG look in CF. You don’t trade a top 100 guy for Marsh and then push Marsh to the sidelines in less then 3 months of games.

    2. I lean Swanson…..Braves probably will not go there with him, at least from what they have done recently with their free agents.
      They like to hook them early…Acuna/Albies/Riley….why they did not on Swanson makes me think they are ready to move on.
      He will be 29, plays great defense and his bats plays well…also one of the best first-to-third runners in baseball.
      He may come lower in salary AAV than either of Correa, Bogaerts or Turner…..and signing him depletes a NL-East foe.

      1. I’m ok with either even Bogaerts point is they can’t stop spending now (if they as everyone here likes to say) are trying to contend.

        I’d watch the Orioles for Swanson. Perfect team to go in with a large overpay. He would fit in nicely with that young core they are building and if and when Holiday is ready for the MLB he easily slides over to 2B.

        1. yeah…Os have plenty of cash on hand….and look to be the team on the rise so far.
          Swanson would fit in there for sure.

  18. The one scenario for 2023 that everyone ignores is the most simple one ➡ Dombrowski picks up Jean Segura’s option, Stott plays SS, Sosa is UTIL1, and Maton/Camargo/Munoz battle it out for UTIL2. IMO, Segura for 1 yr/17M > Turner for 8 yrs/200M.

    1. I like Segura but he spends a lot of time on the IL he’s 32 going to be 33. He checks a lot of boxes but I’ll take Turner Alex for $200

      Segura just isn’t dynamic enough offensively to take pressure off of Stott.

      And I don’t know about you guys but I don’t want to see Kyle lead off again next year.

      So yeah simple is as simple does…we’ll be right back where we are now clamoring for a WC.

      1. 2023?
        Turner cf
        Harper rf
        Bohm 3b
        Schwarber lf
        Castellanos dh
        Stott ss
        Realmuto c
        Hall 1b
        Maton 2b

        Rotation: Nola, Wheeler, Rodon, Suarez, McGarry

          1. So we traded O’Hoppe for a bench player?

            By the way Turner hasn’t played in the OF at all since his age 23 season. If you did get Turner I think its far more likely he slides to 2B and Stott remains at SS.

            No shift next year so you will need a high range factor 2B. No more Mike Moustakases of the world playing that position I hope.

        1. They are not signing Turner AND Rodon. They will go over the luxury tax from time to time, but they are not going to live way above it year after year.

          1. Committed payroll from Spotrac


            they don’t go out past that so I am not really sure what that means for what they can spend and or how they can manage the LT. It seems on the surface to be manageable.

            I agree they can and should go over from time to time but not live over it.

            Harper is here through 2031
            Castellanos 2026
            JT 2025
            Schwarber 2025
            Nola 2023
            Wheeler 2023

        2. Turner is not going to play CF. Guy is the top FA ss available and he’s not going to pick a team that wants him to move off the position. You have a better chance of Stott moving to CF which isn’t happening either.

          Also, they didn’t trade for Marsh only to give up on him as the CF in 2 months.

      2. DMAR….if Marsh can come around at the plate, he would be an ideal lead-off hitter….I do see him eventually in the mold of the Mets’ Nimmo.
        His minor league metrics fits that description…1300PAs- …and a slash of 288/.371/.440.

        1. DMAR shrugs his shoulders OK

          I don’t see what you see certainly not for a player the caliber of O’Hoppe. We have/had a few Marshes in the system already.

          I’ve seen quite a bit of him actually. At best he’s a JBJ or KK with the bat and good defensively yes but not quite that good.

  19. Grow the arms buy the bats I thought was an excellent philosophy…

    I’m not saying don’t extend Nola and the Wheeler deal turned out great for us. But let’s keep in mind Wheeler wanted to be here or at least close to home. Those deals don’t land in your lap every year.

    Other than Nola I am not sure what FA SP you’d want to throw 5/$125 or more at.

    Generally speaking pitching is far more injury prone than position players (outside of catching) and they can only help you win once every 5th day.

  20. Going to have to have SP, DMAR, and if Gibson doesn’t get re-signed and Eflin doesn’t either, I don’t think the next 3 SPs will be Ranger, Falter and McGarry. I may be wrong, but I just don’t see that happening.

    1. They won’t be. The Phillies are likely going to go into 2023 with 5 established MLB starting pitchers but the top 3 or so are likely to be much better than the last two. And fyi, if McGarry pitches like a stud, he won’t be blocked; they will find a way to make room for him.

      1. McGarry, barring any injuries , should be there in 2023….but doubt he comes out of spring training as a starter in the rotation, unless 2/3 of the regulars go down.
        Wait until after June and they save a year of service time, and he also gets more experience in Triple A with a dozen or so starts.

        1. Romus … teams are less likely to play the service time game anymore since the owners and players agreed to the new rule that rewards clubs with draft picks when they promote prospects day one of a season, and that former top 100 prospect finishes first or second for ROY, or MVP/CY his first three seasons. If McGarry looks good in spring training, I believe they’ll take him north (CBP) for the start of the season. He’s going to have to show the ability to throw strikes on a pretty consistent basis next March.

          1. Yeah….still have to see if he can maintain his control.
            Though right now he has 87 minor league innings pitched…..that is not a lot.
            Even Aaron Nola had over 170 innings pitched in the minors, and he was eval higher than McGarry.
            I think the Phillies want to see more experience and consistency below the major league level before they bring him up.

            1. These are different times, especially in the Phillies system where Dave Dombrowski is running the baseball operations. Pitchers only have so many bullets in their arm. Why waste them on MiLB hitters? Dombo has been pretty open about his want to give McGarry/Abel/Painter every chance to pitch for the big club as soon as 2023. That probably sounds revolutionary/crazy to Phillies fans, but look at Dombrowski’s history with top pitching prospects (both college and prep draftees). He gets them to the show in record time: Justin Verlander drafted from ODU in June, 2004 pitched for the Tigers in July, 2005 & Rick Porcello drafted from HS in June 2007 spent just one and a half years in the minors when he made the Tigers opening day lineup in April 2009! According to the Porcello model, it’s not out of the question that Andrew Painter is part of the Phillies rotation next April.

            2. @Hinkie, yes, DD did promote pitchers aggressively in the past. But Verlander was already very polished and didn’t require much time in the minors (similar to Aaron Nola). Rick Porcello was too aggressive and his career WAR suffered for it. You need to learn from the past and make adjustments for the future.

            3. Guru … Griff McGarry was drafted as a college senior. He’s already 23 YO. Nobody questions the “stuff”. As I’ve mentioned already, it’s all a matter of his strike-throwing ability. He’s already made big strides since being drafted, but there is still some work to be done. Can he be ready for opening day 2023? Absolutely. Is that a certainty? No. But if you don’t believe that is a real possibility, I think you’re off base.
              Dombrowski has a history of being aggressive with young pitchers. He wants to get McGarry/Abel/Painter to Philliy as early as 2023. You don’t have to take my word on it. The Phillies POBO has said it publicly ⬇

            4. @Hinkie, I’m not talking about McGarry. I’m pretty sure he’ll be making his debut some time in 2023.

              I’m more talking about Painter and Abel. DD can talk all he wants but I would be shocked if those 2 guys made their debuts as STARTERS in 2023. There’s really no reason for the Phillies to push them in that way, unless the rotation suffers some catastrophic injuries, and even then, I’m sure Lehigh will have depth options. The Phillies are locked into Wheeler/Nola/Suarez for 2023. Suarez wants to be remain a starter, so I think moving him to the bullpen would be a huge mistake. So already, there isn’t enough spots for all 3 pitchers in the rotation anyways.

      2. The Phillies have 2 starter openings for 2023. If the Phillies feel that McGarry is close, then I think 1 spot will either be filled internally or by a FA on a 1 year deal.

        1. How does The Braves’ management bring their young pitchers along, one goes down another is right behind to plug the hole?

          1. The Braves are aggressive with their promotions when they need to be, they usually put pitchers in the bullpen at the ML level to start, and they let their starters sink or swim for the most part. Don’t forget that they don’t spend a lot on payroll so they don’t normally spend big money on pitching. There’s almost always at least 2-3 young pitchers in their rotation because they have to save money.

        2. Food for thought … maybe it’s some combo of:

          4-Efflin/Syneguard on a pillow contract

          Suarez to the Pen ?

          1. Why would you even consider taking Suarez out of the rotation? He’s pitching like a 3/4. You keep him in there until he can’t do the job anymore.

            1. Wheeler
            2. Nola
            3. Suarez
            4. Gibson (on a 1 or 2 year deal)
            5. Falter/Sanchez/Plassmeyer/FA on a 1 year deal

            Rodon is interesting but he has an extensive injury history and his first 6 years in the league were average or below. And would you rather give Rodon the money or Nola?

            1. Agreed on Suarez. He is young, good and cheap. Crazy to move him. I also want nothing to do with Syneguard in 2023. Unless it is a really cheap contract. I think that he is washed.

  21. Great story (as always) by the best Phillies writer out there, Matt Gelb. This one on Alec Bohm, and the crisis in confidence (that I’ve been posting about here for quite some time) that almost ended his career at 3B. Bobby Dickerson and some teammates, especially Nick Castellanos (who is mentioned in the article) & Didi Gregorius (who I had witnessed numerous times) were most instrumental in getting Alec through his crisis in confidence.

  22. Hard to believe the Phillies are favored tonight when they send Noah Syndergaard to the mound vs Sandy Alcantara.
    And … isn’t crazy that we never seem to miss Alcantara in a series … like ever. Seems like the Phillies never miss him.

    1. Marlins cannot hit and although NS gave up 11 hits in 5innings, about half had very weak contact. Plus it was like the 2nd time he had pitched in 3 weeks. I expect Noah to match Sandy tonight at least for 5 innings. I also expect Rhys to homer off Sandy once again.

    1. Then, unless Robertson is a big reason the Phillies win the WS this year, it’s a disaster. I don’t know any other way to put it.

      1. I would guess that the Cubs wanted McGarry and DD asked his people who had a higher upside – McGarry or Brown and they told him it was McGarry.

        Why do I say this? Because DD traded a young Randy Johnson and I’m pretty sure he never wants to trade another young Randy Johnson.

        1. It was reported on Cubs’ sites that Brown was the pitcher they targeted for acquisition. It wasn’t like they had to be talked off McGarry. The Phillies could not talk them off Brown.

    2. There’s a reason people remember trades like Smoltz/Alexander, they don’t happen that often.

      I was/am not a fan of the Brown deal for Robertson but every prospect traded isn’t the next coming of Smoltz, Sandberg, etc.

      Can Brown become Smoltz? Sure. More likely scenario; probably not.

      1. But he doesn’t have to become John Smoltz for it to become a very painful trade.

        One of my pet peeves is when teams view a surplus at a position as a reason to more easily depart with a prospect or young player. You need to be careful about that. The fact that the other three starting pitching prospects are potentially awesome doesn’t mean Ben Brown isn’t very, very good.

        1. It is difficult to horde talent like the old days when the Yankees had their own large farm system, and farm systems of other small market teams who were strapped for finances, and the Yankees had no limitation on spending…
          Another factor why it may have been Brown over McGarry could have been due to the construction of the 40.
          Brown, 2017 draftee, and going into his age23 season in 2023, had to be protected this Nov….whereas McGarry not until 2024

          1. Maybe a little, but these guys are such high profile talents – I don’t think the composition 40-man rosters were that big of a motivating factor. Ben Brown will be in the majors by next year most likely.

            1. I can see the Cubs bringing him up in the 2nd half of 2023….I do not see them overtaking the Cards or Brewers anytime soon and they will let Brown get some valuable MLB experience without being under the pressure of a pennant race.

        2. As noted, I am not a fan of the trade. My pet peeve is that every time a prospect gets traded, we get the “but he could be the next ….” response.

          The odds are that he will not become the next HOF player traded and they can’t be afraid to make deals because it might happen.

          1. The biggest difference (and it’s a huge difference) between Griff McGarry and Ben Brown are their secondaries. McGarry already has a plus SL and a plus CH, and a real chance at a plus CB. Brown has a big FB, but no other pitch better than avg. That’s not to say I liked the Brown for 2 months of Robertson trade.

            1. The braves just keep turning out prospect, They calling up 21 yr old today who has really good numbers,

            2. …and the other large difference between Brown and McGarry …is control….a BB/9 of 4.9 is quite a bit different than a BB/9 of 3.1…that will separate a reliever from a starter.

      1. I do not know about that…but he drafted Fer Green and P Bennet this year, a great haul from the Soto trade this year, along with RHP Gray and catcher Ruiz from the Scherzer/Turner trade last year…..so he has a pretty good foundation of youth to go forward.
        He seems to be on the right track and by 2023 they could be yet another division contender.

        1. Yes, they have the makings a good core. Soto’s refusal to sign was a blow because he was going to be that central piece they could build around.

          1. Losing Soto is massive. He was the Goliath in that lineup. Now that he’s gone, there’s a lot more pressure on the other prospects.

            It’s still early for Ruiz (23 year old, 1.2 WAR) and Gray (24, 0.5 WAR) but they haven’t exactly played up to their potential. Robles (25, 1.3 WAR) has been a huge bust. Garcia (22, -0.6 WAR) can hit a bit but his glove is really suspect.

            Only Cade Cavalli is close to helping. The Nats are going to be bad for a few years minimum.

    1. No, I think Arcia got hurt and crazy enough, the Braves don’t have any healthy IFs on their 40 man roster. It’s mostly pitchers and OFs. They’ll have to kick somebody off the 40 for him.

      1. Yes, they have 23 pitchers on their 40-man roster, not including a couple on the 60-day IL.

        Only 17 spots left for position players and that includes the 9 starters so just 8 spots left for back-ups and injured players.

  23. Nola now number 8 Phillie pitcher in WAR and getting closer to Curt:
    1. Robin Roberts 69.8
    2. Steve Carlton 64.6
    3. Pete Alexander 60.3
    4. Cole Hamels 42.0
    5. Curt Schilling 36.8
    6. Chris Short 32.1
    7. Jim Bunning 31.4
    8. Aaron Nola 28.3

    1. Here’s a hot take…Nola is on pace to be a Hall of Famer. If he stays healthy and maintains his production, he’s in the discussion.

      1. It’s possible, but it’s going to be tough. Nola would have to average something like 5 WAR starting NEXT season for the next 5 years to even be in the discussion.

        1. 65 WAR basically guarantees you get in. He will have 30 WAR at the end of this season. He has played effectively 7 full seasons. That’s an average of 4.3 WAR per full year. He needs to keep that average for 8 more years.

          He is not a high velo guy. He relies on exceptional command of 5 different pitches. All with great movement. I think that he is a classic example of a pitcher that can age well.

          1. The list of pitchers right now who are in the late 30s and averaged 4 WAR the last 8 years can’t be a lot. Even Clayton Keyshawn is not doing that right now, and he’s 34. Granted, there are a lot of miles on Kershaw. Charlie Morton has been better in his 30s but he hasn’t done that either.

            Not to say that Nola can’t do it, but asking for 4 WAR for the next 8 years, the odds can’t be good for Nola to do that. Nola needs to turn into Mike Mussina.

            1. True, but he is now entering his early 30’s. So his prime years. He will be ~ 5.5 war this year. A few more years like this one and the average needed will come down.

              I am not saying it is easy. It is really hard to get into the HoF. Just saying that he has a real shot. Imo he is a classic example of a pitcher who will age well. The opposite is a pitcher like Thor. Those type of guys rarely age well. When they go, they go fast.

            2. The trajectory I see….and what Nola really could use to get him a more notable reputation among the writers, is averaging over the next 3, maybe 4 years, a 5 or 6WAR clip …which is doable since he still would be in his early 30s.
              After 35, it becomes that more difficult.

      2. Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. He will, however, need to start getting some accolades, like at least one Cy Young award and more all-star appearances. And he will need to have a long and productive career. As Bert Blyleven showed, if you don’t have some hardware, you have to generate a LOT of WAR (or have some amazing postseason success) to be in the conversation. Blyleven had 96 WAR and was shut out of the HOF for a long time. Even Andy Pettite, who had 60 WAR, 5 WS titles and 3 AS appearances (along with 256 wins) is probably not going to get in.

  24. If signing Trea Turner is in fact priority one this winter, then Bryson Stott is our 2b in 2023. My suggestion above that Turner play CF was more of a long term sell…CF is an easier position for someone with his speed, and much less wear and tear. But yes, to expect Marsh to sit on the bench would make the O’Hoppe trade a dud, unless they were to include Marsh in a deal for a SP…or a bigger package for Bryan Reynolds?

    Anyway, does anyone think Johan Rojas will reach the majors by midseason ’23 or spring of ’24? And in what role?

    1. I expect Rojas to stay in the minors for all of 2023 which will give them a year to see if they can improve on Marsh’s K-rates.

      Depending on what happens with both players, 2024 will be the year they decide which one is their long-term solution or if they need to keep looking.

      1. One thing I have noticed with Marsh in his short time with the Phillies is that he takes a lot of hittable pitches. Becoming more aggressive might help improve those strikeout numbers.

        1. I wouldn’t really expect big changes with Marsh, stat-wise, until next season, if at all. I know it’s been reported that they’ve tried to simplify his setup and swing, so he’s ready to swing earlier a la Bohm. He hasn’t been swinging and missing much if at all since the trade.

        2. 3up………..
          His zone swing metrics from last year to this year have remain pretty consistent except for his O-Contact%
          In 2021 it was a low 40.4%, and this year so far it is over 50% at 51.5%.
          That is a significant increase on contact Whether or not the balls are barreled or just fouled off is another thing.
          With his defense, I’d be happy if he got close to his minor league metric slash….288/.371/.440….11%-BB….and maybe tick down a little from 24%-K

          1. If Marsh got close to his minor league metrics, with his defense, he’s a first division regular and the trade is almost certainly a huge win because he’s under team control for 5 more years, which has enormous value on a team with a lot of big contracts.

            1. Yeah….some were really harsh on Marsh after the trade.
              But when you comp Mickey Mo’s MiLB metrics…..256/.305/.410….6%-BB….22%-K…to Marsh’s MiLB metrics, they is a fair amount of a divide.
              I believe in the kid…though wish he visit the club barber at some point.

    2. I have no idea what will happen with Rojas. He will go as far as his hit tool and plate discipline allow. The tools are pretty darned good, but if he’s hitting .247 with a .310 OBP in AAA is he really going to excite anyone or overtake Marsh, who I think may develop into a decent hitter?

    1. Most impressive win of the year. Looking forward to their upcoming two series with the Mets.

      And the young guys again: Bohm, Stott, and Marsh all with huge hits in the 8th inning!

      1. Agreed.

        Is it me or does it feel like Girardi was the manager like 3 years ago? This team has come really far in a very short amount of time under Thomson. He’s been a superb manager this year.

    2. I echo that. It was high energy with lots of the young guys coming up big. Happy for Marsh to get that big clutch hit

      My wife though she doesn’t like his hair

      Oh and Stott Bohm just incredible what those two are able to do in a big moment.

      But yes they will need to show up against the Mets for the rest of their of their games with them. I think we’re what 10.5 back of them with 7 to play against.

      When the season ends I don’t expect to take the division from them but I would like the goal now to be finishing 2nd above the Braves and maybe only 3.5-4 back of the Mets.

      1. Lol. My wife said she hates the hair and the caveman look too – as if it mattered.

  25. There’s just something special about Bryson Stott. The way he fields his position, his plate discipline and the way he can work a count, the willingness to hit the ball the other way, the ability to drive the ball (which appears to be growing), the clutch gene, the body language. I think he’s going to be a heck of a player and the same goes for Nick Maton, who I pray they don’t trade this offseason.

    1. Love that you mentioned body language. I am a huge observer of that. Its oft overlooked….

      As a coach I liked to tell my kids you may feel defeated in a moment but never let them see it.

      1. I tell my boys the same, but I phrase it differently. I tell them that every failure is a learning opportunity. So instead of being upset about the strikeout, ask yourself, what did you learn from that at bat? where was the pitch? were you late? early? what did you learn about the pitcher’s mechanics? focus on the learning rather than the disappointment.

      1. Yes, he does. He’s got the “it” factor. If you watch sports long enough, you know it’s a real thing. Utley also seemed special long before he performed like a star.

        1. I hope you are right. I remember reading on this website that Kingery had the “It” factor. And before that Cody Asche had the “It” factor.

          1. Extremely fair point. I may have even said that so, yeah, it’s not all about how a guy carries himself, but it is relevant.

  26. Stott is what I call A Baseball Player. Love him.

    btw, just bought tickets for 8/20 and surprised at the availability. Folks, please don’t let the stadium be filled with Mets fans!!!!

    1. Yes, Stott has IT, some of which has probably rubbed off from hanging with Harper. It’s encouraging to see Stott, Bohm, Marsh experiencing the exhilaration of a pennant race as a potential future core of players when Bryce’s career is at its horizon.

      1. What do you mean Bryce’s career is at it’s horizon? Bryce is 29 and is at the peak of his powers. I think it’s high noon or 1 p.m. in Bryce’s career. Between now and age 34 or 35 he is going to put up ridiculous numbers.

        1. Easy! Clarification – I meant that they could be the core players in 5 or 6 years when the end of Harper’s playing days are nearer to the end…key words: *potential future core*, as in not right now.

    2. feel the same about Stott. He definitely has the “IT” factor as Mark mentions below. never phased by the moment. Reminds me a lot of Brandon Crawford. I think that is a great comp for him.

  27. I’ve been watching the The Captain (Jeter Bio series) I am enthralled by it. That guy was just wired differently than most.

    The absolute definition of a winning player vs. players with more talent but NOT always concerned with winning.

    1. Someone once mentioned….Jeter did not just want to win…he needed to win.
      Utley was like that also.

  28. Since 7/10, last 30 days in 23 games, B Stott is hitting .315 with 3 hr and 15 RBIs. 23-73. Run that out for a full year he would be; 21-105-.315.

  29. The great thing about Stott is that he puts the bat on the ball. I was a little surprised that they went with Bellatti ahead of Knebel. Has Knebel dropped in the pecking order? There is Robinson and Dominguez at the very back end, then Hand and Brogdan (where’s he been lately ?) and Alvadado in the middle and Knebel, Bellatti, and Nelson (long man) to mop up. Sad that a $10M reliever is now in mop up.

  30. Assuming the Phillies can take care of business today and next week’s 3 games at Cinci, sandwiched by the 7 games versus the Mets, while NYM play 4 against the Braves in Atlanta next week, followed by a 2 game set versus NYY after our games. Might we gain 5 of the 10 games we’re currently behind?

    1. Phillies next 14 games after today – 7 vs Mets, 7 versus Reds…Phillies “should” win 9(?)

      Mets next 13 – 7 versus Phillies, 4 at Atlanta, 2 versus NYY…Mets could lose 9(?)…and hoping they’re about to cool down👍against stiffer competition. Even if we pick up 3 games over that stretch, things would get very interesting.

  31. The Phillies must lead the league in allowing runners to score from 3rd on passed balls

    Who will be the days hero or are they finally do for an L

  32. Hope this game was not the start of the Phillies bats going cold. Scherzer, deGrom, and Bassitt coming up.

    1. I would be perfectly happy if the Phillies played well and took 1 of 3 in NY and split the home 4 game series against the Mets and then ambushed bad teams like the Reds. What they can’t do is get swept this weekend.

  33. First time I think I questioned Thompson or seen him over manage a game. I would have left Hall in to hit and I would have left Stubbs into to hit…

    I mean Stubbs hit a HR off this guy to walk it off before…

    1. This game was over early. As well as they played yesterday, they were180 today. Stubbs didn’t seem to me to be in the game today, multiple checked swings (one which surprisingly enough ended up a hit), passed or muffed balls, poising after swings, trotting down to 1b on a called strike, etc. Hoskins error, Segura’s misplayed infield fly for a hit. Gibson missed badly on off the plate stuff, etc.
      Day game after night game going on the road, heat.

      I think there are times as a manager you know its over before the last out. I think today that was the case.

    2. Saw the game in person and Stubbie hit that hr on 6/15 off of the same pitcher (Tanner Scott) had he been left in the game. My thought same as yours – first time I have seen Thompson over manage. Team had chances but couldn’t cash in. I also saw this Miami pitcher last Friday in Chicago and he looked good then but I thought his lack of command would do him in vs. Phillies – it didn’t – in both of the games.

      1. Not blaming the game on the ump but he appeared to live rent free inside of our hitters heads…

        He was bad both ways but it looked like it got to a point where they were arguing/annoyed with every close call. Granted he was bad that ump.

        Tonight into this weekend is where the rubber meets the road. We’ve been here before. Tough task ahead with the pitching match-ups but they have to find a way to take 2-3.

  34. I would love to see the record of teams up 2-0 in a 3 game series with a final afternoon game getaway….I don’t know…seems like a Vegas lock.

  35. Best thing about Stott’s emergence as a hitter is that he is now safely off of the interstate. If he could end the season batting 235-240, that would be very positive.

    1. If that happens …then right now he would be about league average

      …….242 (.24160)…AL
      …….245 (.24490)…NL
      MLB……..243 (.24325)

      1. I don’t think there is any question Stott is a everyday MLB player. I don’t even need to look at his numbers. The only question is to what level of MLB player he will rise.

        Same can be said for Bohm. Now you have two cornerstone pieces for cheap for a while. DD just needs to lengthen this LU a little more and he has the makings of something.

  36. #31 Andrew Painter
    #43 Mick Abel
    #78 Griff McGarry

    others of note …

    #49 Curtis Mead
    #100 Logan O’Hoppe

  37. I needed a place to vent about this. I’ve been watching the Phillies on MLB Extra Innings since 2008. Tonight, once again the game will be blacked out because it’s on a streaming network. I understand MLB wanting to try and attract more fans with these networks, and I understand them not being on cable. But I’ve already paid MLB to watch these games. This might be my last year doing so….

    1. Gotcha, it sucks for sure. I switched cable suppliers just to insure viewing. Same deal as you. How many times can they gouge you for the same thing? I feel your pain!😡

    2. I feel you David. I refuse to give in and add Apple. I’m already paying Comcast close to $280/mo including my internet so I’ll be darned if I pay out any more.

      My saving grace is the MLB Network. They will have the live look ins so I can kind of see what is going on.

      Eagles pre-season is on tonight so maybe I will actually watch some of that.

      1. I was in NC last weekend and Phillies’ games blacked out because I am living in Washington area (?). Vacationed in Fl this week and now blacked out because I am in Miami area which is 300 miles from me. Can’t win.

        1. Washington and Baltimore are the home teams for NC even though no station we have carries either team.

      2. DMAR……remember the old days of transistor radios and sitting out back……large companies, are making it easier to go back

        1. LMAO Romus…

          I never did that personally I was born in 69 so my fandom started around the late 70’s. The games were mostly televised back then I think. I remember a handful of games being blacked out against the Mets but we could get al beit fuzzy the NY TV broadcast

          But I do remember our vacations in Ocean City and hearing on the beach radio broadcasts of the games.

        2. That’s our corporate America of today in action, Romus….they would just as soon have 10 people pay $100 for their product than 1000 people pay a dollar…building a customer base comes a distant second to maximizing profits.

          1. Yep…seems that way.
            Oddly….not sure MLB is attracting anymore younger audiences…..I suppose streaming gets their attention for a few minutes during the game,
            But cannot see any person younger than 30 sitting and watching a 3 hour ballgame
            And even the ones playing it , looking into the dug-outs and bullpens, may have a hard time focusing on each pitch in a game for three hours.

            1. I remember listening to the Johansson/ Patterson fights on the radio. Great memories……….boom Johanssons down……boom Patterson’s down……Patterson’s up…..boom Johanssons down………..there’s a left to the jaw………….and the Gillette Blue Blades commercials …somewhere Edith is singing “those were the days”. Thanks Romus!

            2. Skeet…on boxing…I listened to the Ali-Frazier bout late at night…I think it was the Manilla Thriller. Letting the imagination take it away.

          2. I really believe, mark, that it has nothing to do with attracting a younger audience. It has everything to do with being offered $ from Apple or Peacock and figuring, “screw the people who don’t stream. We will grab the $”, and the people who don’t stream may get pissed off, but they always come back. Pure greed, nothing related to growing the game’s fanbase, at all. Purely my opinion.

    3. Ask for a pro-rata refund for Phillies games that have been streamed but you can’t watch on MLB Extra Innings. They guaranteed all Phillies out of market games can be seen and that isn’t the case when they are streamed.

    4. The recent Friday night games on Apple have been free. I watched the last two. I think there is just one more Phillies game v. SF scheduled. Maybe they try to add another.

      I downloaded the app to my laptop with no problem. Had to create an account, but they did not ask for credit card info. So, charges can’t suddenly appear.

      I also have a Firestick and downloaded the app so I can watch on TV.

      I wish I had shared this earlier.

  38. Did not realize Kyle went out with a calf strain….those are bad news and this LU can ill afford any loss of offensive production.

    Hall as the lone lefty pop bat will now have to come up really big in this series..

    1. DMAR…..two games ago he busted it and went from first to third, late in the game and the throw from the RFer was a little wide of the bag…..it was a critical play and he was able to slide in safely….Phillies won.
      Sometimes you have to sacrifice the body I guess.
      He said yesterday morning it was tight..I can only surmise after he woke up.

      1. Romus…………when you walk, K, or HR almost every AB, ……”legging it” should not be in your regimen or else you risk crippling yourself. heh, heh

  39. I refuse to watch the games on any streaming service. So, I just follow on the computer. I really thought when Marsh came to the plate with the bases loaded in the 9th, he was going to win the game. It didn’t happen, but, at least, I had hope. Now, I am hoping we can do something vs the Mets. We play poorly against the, and we are facing 3 really good SPs. But, even with Schwarber out tonight, I expect us to come to play.

    1. Me too. I have to get myself on board with Marsh and start rooting for him.

      The worst place to be on a player of ours is of the opinion they aren’t likely to succeed. You’re always fighting your desire not to be wrong.

  40. Losing Schwarber for the series is a really big deal. The last time the Phillies faced Scherzer, I believe Schwarber hit two HRs and they still lost. That’s what’s going to happen when you have to run Schwarber out to LF every night. Eventually, he’s going to come up lame. He missed a ton of time last year. Let’s hope he can be back by next weekend at the latest.

  41. Jeez, the announcers for Apple are just awful. The play-by-play has been fine, but both color analysts are just terrible. The guy even mentioned that being able to DH has helped Bohm get back on track after a rough start.

    Bohm has 4 PAs as the DH on the year.

    1. Floyd started out calling Bohm “Bomb”. Do your homework, and get the names right. The other two (Stephen Nelson? and Katie Nolan) got his name right, though.

      I watch the other announcers sometimes. The A’s guys got his name wrong the whole series in April. Sheesh. Take a walk down the hall and ask TMac.

      1. You would also think all announcers/analysts would look at Baseball Reference, who put out the pronunciations.

        Full Name: Alec Daniel Bohm
        Pronunciation: \BOWM\

  42. Great win!!

    The Phillies have beat both Max Scherzer and Sandy Alcantara in the span of just three days.

    Bryson Stott is the first player to EVER reach base four times in the same game against Max Scherzer.

    1. Big win for the Phils! And the rise of Bohm and now Stott this year are extremely encouraging for the future.

  43. WHAT A WIN!
    Thus team is absolutely rolling now.
    Day care at it again. Stott fantastic in the leadoff spot. Bohm with both RBIs and a couple of excellent defensive plays. And Matt Vierling more than made up for Schwarber’s absence with the game saving defensive play in the 9th (maybe the defensive play of the year)!!!
    Dave Dombrowski looks like a genius with his deadline deals. I didn’t like the Ben Brown trade, but man … has David Robertson been huge so far. That’s why Dombrowski is going into the HOF, and I’m sitting on my living room couch posting on PP. 😆

    And LOL @ Keith Hernandez ⬇️

  44. Agree, Hinkie! Vierling was huge! Stott and Bohm are Major Leaguers, Robertson closed it and Ranger was terrific! Can’t say enough.

    1. BTW … If Alec Bohm somehow comes in top two (maybe even top three … not 💯 on that) in NL MVP, he’ll earn the club an extra draft pick. Not predicting he does that. But with 50 games left in the season, stranger things have happened.

    1. At HInkie – Marsh made a great running catch and running throw back in to the cutoff man to prevent a runner from advancing to second – must have been in the 8th, 9th innings. One of those moronic commentators then responded, that player “will win a gold glove one of these days, he’s that good.” Watching him in only a very limited sample – he can go and get it !!!

    1. The new CBA has a clause that was put in to help end the service time manipulation game most clubs have been playing. It incentivizes teams to promote top 100 prospects by rewarding a franchise a draft pick (after competitive balance A round) if they promote a top prospect at the beginning of the season, and they finish top 2 (either league) in ROY or top 2 (or maybe 3?) in MVP/CY for their first three seasons. If the rule had been in effect in 2020, Bohm (who was runner up for NL ROY) would have netted the Phillies a draft pick. This is his third season, which means this is his final season to earn the club the extra pick by finishing at/near the top of the NL MVP race. BTW … Bryson Stott was also a top 100 prospect, and was on the opening day roster this year. If he stays en fuego over the final 50 games, and ends up ROY or runner up, he would also be worth a (late 30-something-ish overall) draft pick.

  45. We may be overlooking the biggest news of the night.
    Ranger Suarez!

    28.1,21,4,4,6,25, 1.27,0.95.over last 5 starts!

    Tonight was on the road, against rival 1st place Mets, dueling the mighty Max Scherzer, and on opening night of biggest series of the year so far!

    He’s pitching again like he did last year. This guy is a serious #3 SP or better!

        1. Ranger has his work cut out for him…right now he is outside the
          SABR-SDI top ten….
          NL leaders, (2022 Rawlings Gold Glove Award qualifiers)
          PLAYER ….SDI
          Tyler Anderson… 2.7
          Taijuan Walker ….2.4
          Ian Anderson….1.5
          Tony Gonsolin…..1.5
          Corbin Burnes ….1.5
          Adam Wainwright….1.4
          Germán Márquez….1.4
          Kyle Wright….1.3
          Max Fried….1.2
          Zac Gallen….0.8
          Fangraphs has Wheeler and Gibson high on their list……will Ranger have enough innings pitched to qualify.

  46. I’m liking this lineup on opening day ’23…

    Stott 2b
    Turner ss
    Harper rf/dh (pending TJ surgery)
    Realmuto c
    Schwarber lf
    Castellanos dh/rf
    Hall 1b
    Bohm 3b
    Marsh cf

    We could potentially have 5 .300 hitters…Stott (with his already excellent approach at the plate), Turner, Harper, Castellanos (if he rebounds to previous form) and Bohm. I’ll settle for 3. Plus you’re looking at 220 dingers with that thunder. And I like JTR cleanup, protected by 2 lefty power bats. He may age like fine wine offensively, even if his catching skills begin to decline. And we shouldn’t underestimate the impact of Kevin Long throughout this lineup, especially with Marsh between now and the spring. Let’s bear with him for the rest of ’22.

    1. What would you rather have:

      Sign Trea Turner and let Aaron Nola walk after next season


      Sign Aaron Nola to an extension and let Maton/Sosa platoon 2B

      Because right now, I don’t think the Phillies can do both.

      1. Sign Turner and let the Nola situation play out after 2023…who knows how much the roster may change by then.

        1. After 2023, the big money players will still be there:

          Wheeler (1 more year)
          Schwarber (2)
          Realmuto (2)
          Castellanos (3)
          Harper (8)

          The Phillies won’t be getting out of any of these contracts without paying a large portion of their salaries. And Dominguez and Suarez will get larger arbitration raises.

          1. True, but both Hoskins and Segura will likely be gone. In any case, I don’t think signing Turner alone this winter precludes them from pursuing Nola. Gibson’s money will probably be off the books since the cheap and controllable Abel, McGarry and Painter should be arriving by 2024…

          2. True, but both Hoskins and Segura will likely be gone. In any case, I don’t think signing Turner alone this winter precludes them from pursuing Nola. Gibson’s money will probably be off the books since the cheap and controllable Abel, McGarry and Painter should be arriving by 2024…

            1. There are no guarantees that any of those pitchers will make it. They’ll get their opportunities, but thinking that they will be as effective as Aaron Nola is a tough ask.

  47. Guru – I say go with the younger guys and stay under the cap for next season. And do you think they will really let Hoskins walk or trade him away?

    On another note, if things go as planned, Scherzer and deGrom will pitch next week against the Braves on Wednesday and Thursday so they would miss the series in Philly. Of course, there could be a rainout or they might give those guys an extra day’s rest.

    1. I would prefer to roll with the younger guys and give the money to Nola.

      Hoskins is an interesting case. He’s not elite but his defense has been better this year and he’s a high character guy. He’s clearly a leader in the clubhouse. WAR wise, he’s still worth getting the $10-$12M in his final year of arbitration. The issue now is whether his money could be better allocated elsewhere, especially with the emergence of Hall. My gut tells me that DD will let Hoskins play his final year in Phillies pinstripes for 2023. And once Boras asks for 5 years, $125M, the Phillies will let him walk.

      1. And since the QO is still in play, the Phillies will get that compensation pick once Rhys moves on to another team….as long as he signs on before June 2024.

        1. My gut says they keep Hoskins for another year to watch and see both Hall (as a first base option) and Bohm (as a first base option/RH hitter) next year to determine the long range plan at first base. There is no need to rush to a decision with any of these players

          1. “My gut says they keep Hoskins”………I hope you do not have a mictobiome issue going on.
            IMO, does not appear to be a rush to judgment decision on him.
            This off-season, the return value on Hoskins could be the highest it may ever be.
            He has produced very well offensively this season…best WAR yet for him in his career…..and so far has avoided the iL for an extended period..
            Besides the arb $$$ savings….Phillies may be able to get a quality pitching prospect or two,…a team can never have enough quality arms.
            He who hesitates is lost.

            1. This team need hitting more than pitching, particularly with the young arms on the way.

            2. Romus, if you want a quality pitching prospect or two for Hoskins then they need to get a Ben Brown type of prospect back, at least. Hoskins is a more valuable player than David Robertson and he has an arb year, is much younger, etc,

              My feeling is Hoskins will not be traded.

            3. NL……that is what I would suggest….an org’s top tier pitching prospect at least. Hoskins value right now would indicate that return IMO, as long as Hosjkins does not go into a prolonged slump over these last 7 weeks.
              A team, like the Giants, who will need a first baseman once Belt decides what he will do, assuming he leaves….and the prospect, someone like a Will Bednar

    1. Of course he is. We gave up a lot of value to get Marsh because he is useful now and also has some upside. But in the abstract I think O’Hoppe may have the better career. We shall see.

  48. Why throw anything but a slider to Castellanos? Is he going to be flailing at them for the next 4 years?

  49. Nothing to be ashamed of to lose 1-0 in NY to deGrom/Lugo/May/Diaz. Nola was really good. Just wish he would have pitched around Alonso with 2 bases open in the first inning. Gotta like their chances tomorrow with Wheeler on the mound, and Diaz almost certainly not available for NY. Need to score some runs.

    1. Yes, a high quality effort, but in a game like that you have to be able to play “small ball” Did anyone (besides me) see the Bronx Bombers beat the Red Sox last night on an exquisitely executed suicide squeeze?

  50. I(H)PP – I saw the game going back and forth with the Phillies. Yankees are not scoring much so small ball is a must. Amazing how much they miss Stanton.

    Writing of not scoring a lot, the Phillies have scored 2 runs in the last 28 innings including 2 shutouts. They really need to score a few against Bassitt this afternoon.

  51. Watching Bassitt pitch for Mets, nothing spectacular and pitching a little above 90 makes me think of a righty Bailey Falter, but Phillies don’t put confidence in these types of pitchers over a consistent period of time.

    1. But Denny, Bassitt has 6 pitches he can throw, with a lot of deception. Falter is not a Lefthanded Bassitt.

  52. What a nightmare game!! Top four, two on, no outs, can’t score. Bottom four, none on, two outs, all soft contact, Mets get four. What did it? Wheeler had Canha 0-2 and couldn’t put him away. Back to the old Phillies?

    1. I joked about it last night with my dad, but now I’m seriously suggesting it: when Schwarber is back in the field, it’s time to let Vierling take over RF for a bit. Castellanos’ defense is palatable when he’s hitting, but he’s not. He actively helped that implosion inning for Wheeler simply by having a worse arm than the average fan in attendance. How do you one hop a throw from SHALLOW RIGHT FIELD? And he was running in on it (because he runs in on everything because he has no range so he needs to be on the warning track to prevent singles becoming triples).

      I was expecting good things from him offensively this year. But saying he’s been a disappointment is a massive understatement. He’s directly costing us wins. And while Vierling probably isn’t an answer long-term, at least he’ll give our pitchers (who have been EXCELLENT) some peace of mind.

  53. As good as the first two games were, this one is a puker . Wheeler not really sharp and why do you give the “Pillsbury Doughboy” something he can turn on? Big problem is our bats seem to either hit all at once or go dormant. Not quite the start to the Mets/Phillies series that we needed.

    1. Too many guys swung at too many pitches that weren’t even close to the Kzone. Biggest offenders were Vierling, Stott, and Bohm.

      1. I’m not happy with their performance either, but you’re talking about young guys facing experienced elite pitchers. There’s a reason why the Mets are in first place. They have a nasty pitching staff with the ability to expoit any hitting weakness. This is a learning moment for them.

      2. Bohm can’t end the game looking at strike 3! Yes, on the corner and at the knees, but clearly a strike. Stick the bat out, foul it off, maybe it bloops into RF, but don’t stand there. Be aggressive, it’s the end of the game. It wasn’t a bad call, it was a strike. And, I am a Bohm fan. Equally upset with Castles fouling off a hanging slider, and a bunch of other bad ABs

  54. So, I’m depressed. I stopped watching at 3-0, went to the pool and got dome sun, but argued with myself the whole time. The Mets are much better than us, and I dislike them more than any team. That’s my own issue, but this is my hypothesis. The season ends in Houston. We need 1 win in the 3 games. Who is confident that we can do that? I’m not. I don’t mean hope and pray we do, but really confident?

Comments are closed.