2022 Discussion in Preparation for the Amateur Draft – July 11, 2022

This is the Phuture Phillies forum for the discussion of prospects eligible for the amateur draft that is scheduled to be held July 17-19, 2022.  You can place videos, scouting reports, or just comments here.  These discussions will be added to the pull-down menu above.

Feel free to discuss the 2022 international signing period, too.  It began on January 15th.

This is the link to this year’s draft spreadsheet.

This space is for the discussion of prospects in the upcoming draft and international signing period.  This is NOT a place for you to complain about past picks/signings or the organization’s past/current draft and international philosophies … or any other non-draft topic.

103 thoughts on “2022 Discussion in Preparation for the Amateur Draft – July 11, 2022

  1. Hinkie, I posted on the July 4 thread about KLaw’s mock today. Did you happen to see it? What do you think?

    1. matt … I did see KLaw’s mock. Almost certain he stated Phillies would NOT pick a prep pitcher in 2020 (they took Abel) and again in 2021 (Painter) so there’s that. Having said that, I’m also skeptical the team would draft a HS arm in the 1st round for the third year in a row unless that prepster is Dylan Lesko or Brock Porter.
      I’d love a college LHP added to the Phillies current stable of young arms. I’m just not in favor of that southpaw being Carson Whisenhunt. Between the PEDs, non power 5 school stats, and mid rotation ceiling, I just don’t see him being worthy of the 1-17 pick. Give me Connor Prielipp or Cooper Hjerpe. I’d also be pretty excited for Drew Gilbert. I’d also be good with Kumar Rocker (if team Dr’s OK it) as a “go for it right now” pick.

  2. Last week, the FBI (Christopher Wray) and Great Britain’s leading intelligence agency warned that China has been taking actions to protect themselves from possible sanctions leading to speculation that China may be considering their own invasion of a neighboring country. I don’t bring this up to spark any political comments. Rather, I’m speculating/wondering how an attack on Taiwan could affect the Phillies. Over the last half dozen years or so, the Phils have made important inroads on the island nation. They have been as aggressive in scouting and signing prospects as any franchise in MLB. Hao Yu Lee is already a top 20 (maybe top 10) prospect in the organization. The team has also brought a few pitchers stateside in that time span as well. A couple of years ago, the Phillies were also the reported favorites to land Lin An Ko (the top two way player in Taiwan) before he decided to stay home and became a first round pick in the CPBL draft. More recently, the Phillies (since last winter) have been connected to two of the top current young arms from Taiwan: 19 YO Pan Wen-Hui and 20 YO Lin Chen-Wei. Both RHPs will probably be signed during the next J2 period. In fact, recent reports say Pan already has a deal in place with a ⭐NL East club⭐. There’s a lot to like about the 19 YO. His FB is already into the mid 90s (T 98), and the secondaries are also (at least) abv avg: sharp SL and swing-and-miss “splitter”.

    1. .

      The other kid, Lin Chen-Wei is 6’8″, very thin, and also throws into the mid-upper 90s.

      He’s playing in America (Northwoods College League) this summer to mixed results. Big FB, but has been walking almost 2 batters per inning. His uncle (Hung-Chih Kuo) played for the LADs for seven seasons. I get the feeling Lin may end up also signing with the Dodgers.
      But Pan Wen-Hui would be a HR “get” IMO, and that looks like a real possibility. In any event, the Phillies have been doing well in a free Taiwan. Don’t know what would change in a Taiwan under the thumb of China. Could their young players even leave the country? Just something to keep an eye on.

      1. Hinkie……they do have a form of military commitment.— 4 months for males aged 18-36 plus up to four 20-day training recalls….which can be done in off-seasons for baseball players, and other athletes….however the situation probably changes if things get dire

        1. Thanks for that info, Romus. I’m wondering if something similar to Ukraine would take place if China invades: all men 18-50 YO have to stay and fight. Hope we don’t have to find out. Hope it doesn’t come to that.

  3. Kiley McDaniel says ➡️ They’re (Phillies) rumored to be considering HS pitchers again, tied to all of the top prep arms: Brandon Barriera the most but also Dylan Lesko, Brock Porter and Robby Snelling.

    1. I always wonder about that ‘rumor’ mill and where it emanates from.
      …insiders from within a club’s organization….agents…card readers.????
      Every year so many different rumors, and the mocks, that go along with it abound.

      1. Most of the draft analysts are former scouts and they know many other scouts in the industry. Much of the “rumored” information is gathered through these sources, as they observe other clubs scouting various draft prospects on-site.

        Some of the information is accurate, as clubs may have a genuine interest in certain players and they go see them. And they’re seen seeing them. But other information isn’t necessarily accurate, as some clubs might feign interest by having a scout on-site but it’s a smokescreen.

        Additionally, some of the scouts are passing along faulty information on purpose, particularly on high draft picks or sleepers. It’s like any other kind of draft. Some of the intel is to be believed and some of it is not. Mocks are entertaining and fun but much of it is deception.

      2. It’s from agents who are talking to scouts. The scouts don’t make the final decisions though.

  4. I could see them taking Barriera.

    Living in SoCal, and having boys who played/play at a very competitive level, these drafts are so weird to me — quite a few of these kids (Kevin Parada, Brooks Lee, Justin Campbell, etc) I first saw play at 12 or 13. It’s strange. I keep rooting for the Phils to take a kid I know, but it hasn’t happened yet.

  5. I am looking forward to Hinkies final mock draft followed by the real one on Sunday. I keep thinking the 17th pick will be a HS Pitcher again. Brandon Barriera???

  6. ⭐⭐ FINAL PHILLIES ONLY MOCK ⭐⭐

    Side note: about a week ago, my laptop crashed. I couldn’t retrieve anything from it’s hard drive. I had some doubts that there would be a (20 round) last mock. But mucho thanks to Mrs Hinkie who did some magic, and recovered all of my data/notes/statistics/videos. She’s a keeper!

    ROUND 1️⃣ Connor Prielipp … is my guy for the Phillies this year. In fact, he’s been my guy since my Waaay Too Early 2022 Mock I posted right after the 2021 draft concluded. He makes a whole lot of sense. He’d add another high ceiling early 20s YO arm to the club’s already impressive stable. Prielipp would complement Abel/Painter/McGarry/Brown because he throws with the other hand. It’s completely possible/likely those five could comprise the most vaunted rotation in MiLB next year at Reading.
    The fact that Prielipp might even be available at 1-17 is a minor miracle. He would have almost certainly been a top five pick if he hadn’t blown out his arm last season. The 6’3″/205 LHP was once selected on day three by the BoSox (led by Dave Dombrowski). Instead of signing, the former Wisconsin prepster chose to throw for the Univ of Alabama. When healthy, he throws a well commanded 92-96 MPH FB, a devastating/high spinning SL (up to 90 MPH), and a not too shabby CH. Unlike most of the other injured pitchers available for this summer’s event, Prielipp appears ready to throw to live batters very soon. Instead of looking at the TJ surgery as a negative, I prefer to see it more of a situation that has led to more tread on Prielipp’s tire. In college, he’s only totaled 28 IP. But his time on the hill has provided some impressive results: 13 H, 7 BB, 47 K, 0.96 ERA.

    ROUND 2️⃣ Nick Castellanos … cost the Phillies their second pick because he was tagged with a QO by the Reds. He’s struggled so far this season, but if history is any indicator, he should heat up (hopefully soon) and provide this team with more production than any second round prospect could (especially during this club’s window of contention).

    1. ROUND 3️⃣ Ryan Cermak … is the dude I have my fingers crossed for at pick 93. The Illinois State prospect is ultra athletic. He owns three plus tools (glove, arm, & legs). His raw power is above avg. The 6’1″/200 RHH can play anywhere (including pitcher) with the exception of catcher. But he especially excells in CF. This season, he was awarded a Gold Glove for his ability to chase down fly balls, many times throwing his body across the turf, or into the wall to make the out. Did you see Dylan Carlson break Phillie Batters’ hearts this week in St. Louis? That’s what Cermak is going to do for a MLB team in a couple of years.
      Offensively, he looks like a future #5 or 6 hitter. He broke out in 2022 with a .340/.441/.696 line.
      The ceiling is almost limitless. At the same time, his floor is really high because the glove, wheels, and arm guarantee he’s at least a 4th OFer. If I was Brian Barber, I’d promise this kid a Casey Martin deal (2nd round cash for a 3rd round pick) in an effort to do everything I could to make sure Cermak makes it to #93.

      ROUND 4️⃣ Alan Roden … is the premier hitter in the Big East. The 6’0″/200 LHH prospect @ Creighton enjoys yard work. His specialty is raking. That’s exactly what he has done as a Blue Jay. Roden is a .383/.484/.640 career college slasher! In the box, the Wisconsin native uses an open stance and a slight crouch. He’s more of a doubles hitter than a HR hitter. He’s got one of the best set of bat-to-ball skills in America (49 BBs vs 27 Ks at Creighton). This season, Roden struck out just 8 times in 242 PAs. Defensively, the kid has played mostly 1B, but has spent some time in LF too. There’s also a possibility that he may have just enough athleticism to give 2B at least a try as a pro. Roden is already 22 YO (turns 23 right before XMas) so he might be had at a discount to help overpay Cermak.

      1. ROUND 5️⃣ William Kempner … is a stocky, power armed RH college pitcher from the Great Northwest. It’s been reported the Phillies sent out numerous scouts and FO types to see Gonzaga’s Gabriel Hughes late this season. Unfortunately for Hughes, he was leaking oil at that time. However, the Phils personnel may have caught one of Kempner’s best outings of his career when he led Gonzaga to a win in the West Coast Conference Tournament. Kempner led the Zags past Portland St that night by going 5.2 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 14 K. The 6’0″/225 hurler has hit triple digits this season, but he’s mostly 93-97. The FB plays up with tons of life because of his lower arm slot. In addition to the heater, the former northern California prepster possesses an upper 80s CH, and sharp, low 80s breaker. He missed a month earlier this season with a finger tendon injury. The Phillies will need to work on getting Kempner to throw more strikes (like they’ve done with Griff McGarry). This season, he’s registered 36 IP, 25 H, 21 BBs, 48 Ks. There’s lots of reliever risk because of the delivery, and the control issues, but he could turn out to be very effective in that role.

        ROUND 6️⃣ Quinn Mathews … is a 6’4″/192 LHP @ Stanford. The loose, athletic hurler looks like he’s right out of the line for a Cole Hamels casting call: same handness, same body, same wind up, same pitch mix. He’s even got Hamels’ hair. The Southern California native Has experience as both a starter and closer. He features a low 90s FB, SL & CH, and does a nice job of tunneling all three pitches. There’s a lot of projection left in Mathews because he has plenty of room to fill out. This season, he totaled 99.1 IP, 77 H, 49 BB, 111 K.

        1. ROUND 7️⃣ Aiva Arquette … could be Brian Barber’s splash pick. This young man is a big HS SS/3Bman from Hawaii. The 6’4″/210 RHH prospect is as athletic as he is large. He has strong hands, and carries a loud stick. Defensively, the 18 YO prepster has surprising range for a kid his size. He’s also got plenty of arm to handle all the throws from the left side of the infield. This kid is not only the top baseball recruit on the island, he’s also the best basketball player there too. If he’s not picked high enough next week, Arquette will spend the next three years at the Univ of Washington. The Phillies scouting Hawaii, and picking prepsters from there is nothing new. Three summers ago, they took Micah Yonamine in the 29th round.

          ROUND 8️⃣ Brad Cumbest … has been one of best college athletes in the country over the past few years. The 6’6″/240 prospect has been a dual sport performer in the SEC (Mississippi State). He played three seasons on the gridiron as a TE before giving up football after the 2020 season to focus solely on baseball. Cumbest has taken off as an OFer since devoting all his time to baseball. This season was his best yet. He put up a .302/.347/.584 line. The 22 YO launched 15 homers, and it’s likely he’ll hit for even more power as he continues his career as a pro. Defensively, he’s been competent enough to even play some CF for the Bulldogs. Brian Barber was the Yankees lead man when they scouted and drafted Aaron Judge. The Phillies Amateur Scouting Director may squint, and see a little bit of Judge in Cumbest.

          1. ROUND 9️⃣ Eric Reyzelman … is a sturdy 6’2″/210 RHP @ LSU. He transferred from U of San Francisco. The California native only pitched one season of HS ball so he wasn’t heavily recruited. The 21 YO has a quick arm, and features four pitches: FB hits upper 90s as a reliever/sits 92-95 as a starter, and has plenty of arm side life, a low 80s SL, upper 70s CB, and mid 80s CH. This kid opened eyes on the Cape last summer when he avg 13.7 K and 2.3 BB per 9 IP. This season (his first at LSU), he went 42.1 IP, 32 H, 18 BB, 66 K all of it out of the BP. Even though Reyzelman has worked as a reliever as a Tiger, he’s got the four pitch mix to start. As a matter of fact, he did mostly start at San Francisco for two years, and on the Cape last summer.

            ROUND 🔟 Dale Stanavich … is a LH closer @ Rutgers. Before landing in New Brunswick, he made stops at Marshall and two different JUCOs. The 22 YO NY native is on the smaller side (5’11″/180), but he’s strong (can dead lift 660 lbs). On the mound, Stanvich pumps FBs up to 95 MPH, and supplements it with a SL and CH (both in the low 80s). This season, he went 34.1 IP, 24 H, 9 BB, 51 K. And he saved 10 games for the Scarlet Knights. In addition, this dude is really fun ⬇

            1. ROUND 1️⃣1️⃣ Malachi Witherspoon … is a two way prepster from Jacksonville. The 6’3″/205 HS star splits time between the OF and the mound. It’s as a RHP clubs are most interested in. Witherspoon has dominated hitters with three quality offerings: low 90s FB w/lots-o-life, big CB, and CH. This season, he went 43 IP, 11 H, 27 BB, 81 K. Obviously, he’ll need to work on his control, but he’s young (won’t turn 18 until the end of the summer), and has plenty of time to figure it out. The kid may be signable. He’s committed to Jacksonville Univ.

              ROUND 1️⃣2️⃣ Jared Beck … has always been a tall LHP. He was 6’11″/190 as an Iowa high school senior in 2018, and threw in the low 80s. Four years, three schools, one inch, and 45 ponds later, Beck has made himself into an intriguing prospect. He’s now 7’0″/235, and runs the ball in the low 90s (T mid 90s) with extreme extension. The 22 YO is throwing for Div II St. Leo’s in Florida after stints at Illinois St and Heartland Community College. This season, the towering south paw went 52.2 IP, 39 H, 21 BB, 82 K. He was also good against (mostly) Div I hitters last summer in the Coastal Plains League when he tallied 25.2 IP, 9 H, 11 BB, 38 K.

            2. ROUND 1️⃣3️⃣ Zach Dezenzo … is a big (6’4″/220) 3Bman @ Ohio St. He’s an intimidating offense force despite a funky setup in the batter’s box. Dezenzo begins with the bat held high above his head and tilted down at a 45-degree angle. He’s somehow quick enough with his hands to get the barrel through the zone with enough speed to produce loud contact. The former HS SS has put up a .326/.423/.700 (17 homers) line in his fourth season as a Buckeye. The 22 YO made a good impression during last summer’s MLB Draft League when he went .339/.393/.732, 6 HRs in 61 PAs, but went undrafted in the new 20 round affair.

              ROUND 1️⃣4️⃣ Justin Miknis … is a 6’0″/195 LHH C from Kent State. The Central PA native (DuBois Central Catholic) has been a stellar offensive weapon in the MAC. In two seasons at Kent St, he’s averaged a .322/.413/.499 slash line. He’s also a good defender (thrown out 43% of attempted base stealers this season. Mikins is no stranger to the draft. He was a day three pick (Orioles) in 2019.

              ROUND 1️⃣5️⃣ DJ Carpenter … is a 21 YO lanky RHP the Phillies used a 15th round pick on in 2018. There were originally reports that the team had signed him, but instead, Carpenter chose Central Arizona JUCO. When the Phils picked Carpenter, he was a tall, skinny California prepster. Four years later, the 6’8″ Carpenter has bulked up from 190 lb to 230 lbs. As he’s filled out, Carpenter has seen his velo jump from 89-90 to 94-96 (T98). He supplements the heater with an avg SL & CH. During three seasons at Central Arizona, Carpenter totaled 38 IP, 27 H, 28 BB, 59 K. This season, he threw for Oregon State, and went 24.1 IP, 33 H, 8 BB, 31 K.

              ROUND 1️⃣6️⃣ Dustin Dickerson … is a 6’1″/175 RHH SS @ Southern Miss. Being the son of a coach (Bobby Dickerson), this kid is a well schooled/fundamentally sound/heady player. He’s spent three seasons as the anchor of the Golden Eagles infield defense. Dickerson’s got good range and an abv avg arm. Offensively, he is a bat-to-ball demon (just 11% K-rate in 2022), but offers little to no power (only 2 HRs in nearly 600 career PAs). In 2022, the 21 YO prospect registered a .320/.397/.409 line. You can see below his dad has coached him up well.

              ROUND 1️⃣7️⃣ Cam Fisher … is a sweet swinging 6’2″/205 LHH LFer @ Charlotte. The 21 YO former Tennessee prep star began his career in the SEC at Ole Miss (red shirted there). He then spent a season in JUCO (Walters St) where he put up a .321/.452/.603 line. He’s played the 2021 & ’22 seasons at Charlotte. During his time as a 49er, Fisher has slashed .320/.443/.575. He belted 18 homers this year. Fisher likes to stand on top of the plate. That allows him to easily cover the strike zone with a quick bat. Defensively, he’s played almost everywhere during his amateur career. He’s just not great/good at any of them. That’s why he’ll most likely be a LFer as a pro.

              ROUND 1️⃣8️⃣ Orion Kerkering … is a 6’2″/205 RHP who plays a stone’s throw from the Phillies complex in Clearwater. The University of South Florida hurler features a 92-95 FB (T97) and a turbo spinning SL that usually makes hitters look foolish. That breaker registered some of the highest spin rates at the combine (~3,000 RPM). Kerkering spent his first couple of years at USF in the BP. He worked mostly as a starter this season, and totaled 67.2 IP, 75 H, 19 BB, 91 K. He’ll need work on his CH to start as a pro. But the FB/SL combo gives him a late game reliever floor.

              ROUND 1️⃣9️⃣ Steven Zobac … is a 6’2″/200 Cal Bear who used to split his time between COFer and pitcher. He gave up the field to focus on the mound this season, and has shown some serious stuff as both a starter and reliever. The San Jose native packs some heat. He’s been up to 98, but generally sits mid 90s. He also adds a sharp biting breaker, and developing CH. In 2022, Zobac put up impressive #s: 61.2 IP, 55 H, 20 BB, 72 K. It’s not unreasonable to expect more from the 21 YO now that his sole focus is pitching.

              ROUND 2️⃣0️⃣⃣ Marcos Pujols … has been one of my personal favorites (as a late round under the radar kid) for the past two draft cycles. Maybe it’s just my affinity for players with unusual body types (ie Jake Hernandez & Carlos De La Cruz). Pujols reminds me a lot of Pablo Sandoval (maybe even Alejandro Kirk). He’s a 6’0″/260 LHH 1B/LF/DH who has also even seen limited time at 3B during his career. The Univ of Dayton prospect has got a simple setup in the box. The bat lays on his back shoulder, he uses very little leg lift, and has a natural launch angle that produces above avg power. The swing is quick, and allows him to pitches anywhere in the zone. Over the past two seasons, Pujols has put up a .324/.407/.545 slash line. Defensively, he’s surprisingly agile for a guy his size.

            3. ROUND 1️⃣3️⃣ Zach Dezenzo … is a big (6’4″/220) 3Bman @ Ohio St. He’s an intimidating offense force despite a funky setup in the batter’s box. Dezenzo begins with the bat held high above his head and tilted down at a 45-degree angle. He’s somehow quick enough with his hands to get the barrel through the zone with enough speed to produce loud contact. The former HS SS has put up a .326/.423/.700 (17 homers) line in his fourth season as a Buckeye. The 22 YO made a good impression during last summer’s MLB Draft League when he went .339/.393/.732, 6 HRs in 61 PAs, but went undrafted in the new 20 round affair.

              ROUND 1️⃣4️⃣ Justin Miknis … is a 6’0″/195 LHH C from Kent State. The Central PA native (DuBois Central Catholic) has been a stellar offensive weapon in the MAC. In two seasons at Kent St, he’s averaged a .322/.413/.499 slash line. He’s also a good defender (thrown out 43% of attempted base stealers this season. Mikins is no stranger to the draft. He was a day three pick (Orioles) in 2019.

            4. ROUND 1️⃣5️⃣ DJ Carpenter … is a 21 YO lanky RHP the Phillies used a 15th round pick on in 2018. There were originally reports that the team had signed him, but instead, Carpenter chose Central Arizona JUCO. When the Phils picked Carpenter, he was a tall, skinny California prepster. Four years later, the 6’8″ Carpenter has bulked up from 190 lb to 230 lbs. As he’s filled out, Carpenter has seen his velo jump from 89-90 to 94-96 (T98). He supplements the heater with an avg SL & CH. During three seasons at Central Arizona, Carpenter totaled 38 IP, 27 H, 28 BB, 59 K. This season, he threw for Oregon State, and went 24.1 IP, 33 H, 8 BB, 31 K.

              ROUND 1️⃣6️⃣ Dustin Dickerson … is a 6’1″/175 RHH SS @ Southern Miss. Being the son of a coach (Bobby Dickerson), this kid is a well schooled/fundamentally sound/heady player. He’s spent three seasons as the anchor of the Golden Eagles infield defense. Dickerson’s got good range and an abv avg arm. Offensively, he is a bat-to-ball demon (just 11% K-rate in 2022), but offers little to no power (only 2 HRs in nearly 600 career PAs). In 2022, the 21 YO prospect registered a .320/.397/.409 line. You can see below his dad has coached him up well.

            5. ROUND 1️⃣7️⃣ Cam Fisher … is a sweet swinging 6’2″/205 LHH LFer @ Charlotte. The 21 YO former Tennessee prep star began his career in the SEC at Ole Miss (red shirted there). He then spent a season in JUCO (Walters St) where he put up a .321/.452/.603 line. He’s played the 2021 & ’22 seasons at Charlotte. During his time as a 49er, Fisher has slashed .320/.443/.575. He belted 18 homers this year. Fisher likes to stand on top of the plate. That allows him to easily cover the strike zone with a quick bat. Defensively, he’s played almost everywhere during his amateur career. He’s just not great/good at any of them. That’s why he’ll most likely be a LFer as a pro.

              ROUND 1️⃣8️⃣ Orion Kerkering … is a 6’2″/205 RHP who plays a stone’s throw from the Phillies complex in Clearwater. The University of South Florida hurler features a 92-95 FB (T97) and a turbo spinning SL that usually makes hitters look foolish. That breaker registered some of the highest spin rates at the combine (~3,000 RPM). Kerkering spent his first couple of years at USF in the BP. He worked mostly as a starter this season, and totaled 67.2 IP, 75 H, 19 BB, 91 K. He’ll need work on his CH to start as a pro. But the FB/SL combo gives him a late game reliever floor.

            6. ROUND 1️⃣9️⃣ Steven Zobac … is a 6’2″/200 Cal Bear who used to split his time between COFer and pitcher. He gave up the field to focus on the mound this season, and has shown some serious stuff as both a starter and reliever. The San Jose native packs some heat. He’s been up to 98, but generally sits mid 90s. He also adds a sharp biting breaker, and developing CH. In 2022, Zobac put up impressive #s: 61.2 IP, 55 H, 20 BB, 72 K. It’s not unreasonable to expect more from the 21 YO now that his sole focus is pitching.

              ROUND 2️⃣0️⃣⃣ Marcos Pujols … has been one of my personal favorites (as a late round under the radar kid) for the past two draft cycles. Maybe it’s just my affinity for players with unusual body types (i.e. Jake Hernandez & Carlos De La Cruz). Pujols reminds me a lot of Pablo Sandoval. He’s a 6’0″/260 LHH 1B/LF/DH who has also even seen limited time at 3B during his career. The Univ of Dayton prospect has got a simple setup in the box. The bat lays on his back shoulder, he uses very little leg lift, and has a natural launch angle that produces above avg power. The swing is quick, and allows him to pitches anywhere in the zone. Over the past two seasons, Pujols has put up a .324/.407/.545 slash line. Defensively, he’s surprisingly agile for a guy his size.

  7. Nice Job Hink. do you think only 2 High Schoolers this year? Also, what do you think of Carpenter? we all did see some reports that he had signed. Do you think he could be at Reading by now?

    1. Thanks. I think it’s possible that I can be totally underestimating the amount of prep players the Phillies pick. It’s possible/likely they take a HS pitcher in the first round. And if recent history (last summer’s event) is any indication, Brian Barber may find more of that second level of prepsters who are looking to go pro right away for <1M dollars. I have no inside info. I'm assuming Aiva Arquette and Malachi Witherspoon are those type of HS kids. This is more a process of me picking players I like, and think could help the Phillies. I try to keep it realistic based on the Phillies bonus pool.

      As far as DJ Carpenter goes … yeah, I think he'd most likely be pitching in Reading, and playing with Logan O'Hoppe right now. O'Hoppe was also picked on day three in 2018. BTW … the Phils also drafted Carpenter's HS teammate, Brandon Ramey in the 30th round that year. Ramey signed, and was later traded to Milwaukee for David Phelps.

      1. And in this mock (above), I believe the Phillies would have to promise Cermak an over slot bonus to slide him down to the #93 pick. Brian Barber/David Crowson/Dave Dombrowski could like a HS player a lot, and do the same for that kid instead of Cermak in round three.

        Here are a few HS candidates who could get overpaid in round three⬇

        ◾ Nazier Mule … 6’3″/205 two way kid from NJ. He’s going to get drafted as a pitcher. He’s already got two plus pitches (upper 90s FB & late breaking SL). He’s young for the class (won’t turn 18 until October). He’s a Miami commit.

        1. ◾ Noah Samol … 6’7″/225 HS LHP from the Cincinnati area. Missed most of 2021 (jr season) recovering from TJ. Got back on the mound later in the summer (in showcase games). This spring, he began putting it all together. He’s added more juice on his FB (92-96 T 97), adds a nasty 80 MPH CB (gets lots of swings-and-misses), and an emerging CH. Has an easy delivery, and a really nice mound presence. There’s a lot to dream on. Plans to play for Ga Tech next season if he doesn’t get paid this summer.

          ◾ Andrew Healy … 6’6″/175 LHP @ Penn Charter HS. He’s long & lean, and older for the class (turns 19 this month). He’s a Duke commit. He throws a low 90s FB (w/plenty more to come) and a nasty CH.

          1. ◾ Austin Henry … is maybe the best pitching prospect from the state of South Dakota in 50 years (Floyd Bannister). The 6’5″/212 RHP prepster is old for the class (already turned 19). He’s a TJ survivor. He throws a low 90s FB w/plenty of ASR & a hammer CB with extreme spin rates (3200+ RPM). If Henry doesn’t get picked/signed by a MLB team next week, he’ll head to Wichita State and throw for Alec Bohm’s alma mater.

            ◾ Jeric Curtis … is a skinny Texas prep OFer who has world class speed, and could grow into abv avg power. The 6’1″/165 prospect is a Texas Tech commit.

  8. 17. Phillies: Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma
    Horton jumped into first-round conversations with his ridiculous postseason run and I keep hearing his name rising, with him coming up in the teens now. The high school lefties, Barriera and Snelling, still come up here as well.

    1. Horton is a guy I spotlighted last month. It was really interesting hearing Barber talk yesterday about McGarry. He could have easily been talking about Horton, as they both performed at very high levels in the College World Series.

      I’ve been leaning towards the Phillies taking Snelling and still am but would be thrilled if they took Horton.

  9. Good article on the drafting philosophy differences with Barber.

    Classic example is Griff McGarry. Almaraz valued control over stuff. You know how that turned out. Phillies analytical dept loved McGarry’s stuff. So Barber and scouts dug into why he had an 8.8 BB rate in college. What mechanical issues caused his poor command and whether the development staff believed they could fix it. So there was a plan before drafting him. Alignment between scouts and developmental staff. Working out really well now. Encouraging stuff.

    https://theathletic.com/3421426/2022/07/13/phillies-draft-picks-strategy/?source=user_shared_article

  10. I suspect RHP Gabriel Hughes, Gonzaga is going to be the pick. I’ll probably be wrong but I really like this kids make-up and his stuff isn’t too shabby either. More importantly there isn’t a ton of mileage on the arm and he should be on a timeline that is relatively quick.

    I also think whoever takes Jones and Green will be disappointed. Jones will be above average defensively but his hit tool will leave his suitor longing for more.

    Green simply doesn’t see spin and strikes out a ton. That I don’t believe is ever going to change enough to tap into his raw power.

    I think the O’s end going with Termarr this kid has it all and is a star in the making

  11. .

    17. Philadelphia Phillies

    Drew Gilbert, CF, Tennessee

    I think Philly wants Brandon Barriera here and they’ve been tied to Brock Porter and Robby Snelling, but I think it also may be reductive to assume they’d just take whichever prep pitcher gets here because they’ve found success with prep pitchers the last two years.

    Gilbert has momentum into the top 20 at a number of picks in this area. I don’t have a ton of clarity here, but I’m leaning towards a position player if Barriera isn’t available. Connor Prielipp is another possibility.

    ⬆ ⬆ ⬆ ⬆ ⬆ ⬆ ⬆ ⬆ ⬆ ⬆

    So it seems like the consensus has the Phillies wanting Brandon Barriera. McDaniel (and some others) have Barriera going to the LAAs at 1-13. Love the Prielipp mention. I like Gilbert, but I like Ryan Cermak better. I’d take Cermak at a good discount over Gilbert. I’d then overpay a prep pitcher or maybe one of the injured college pitchers in the third.
    Here’s a clip of Barriera ⬇.

  12. .

    17) Phillies … Brandon Barriera

    Barriera seems to have plenty of potential homes throughout the middle of the first round, but we’ll take him off the board here with the Phillies like our previous mock draft. All the other college pitchers are getting some buzz with the Phillies here and they were apparently one of the teams scouting Gonzaga righthander Gabriel Hughes quite aggressively.

    1. Carlos Collazo also mentions a couple of prepsters as possibilities for Brian Barber later in the draft: Henry Bolte (OFer from California) and Xavier Isaac (1Bman from NC)

      1. Unless he’s asking for big dollars, I don’t see Bolte being around when the Phillies pick in the 3rd round. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s drafted in the competitive balance round A or early 2nd round. Too big, fast, and talented to go much later.

  13. .

    17. Philadelphia Phillies

    Kumar Rocker, RHP, Indy Ball

    I continue to hear the Phillies connected to college pitchers at this stage. Rocker is repeatedly mentioned in the 10-20 range. It’s hard to lock in exactly where he fits. That said, multiple folks I’ve talked to have suggested wherever we have him mocked, mock him higher. Tough call at this point. The Phillies have been attached to James Madison outfielder Chase DeLauter and Gilbert here as well. I would think Bishop Gorman outfielder Justin Crawford would be of interest too.

    ***

    Interestingly, Prospects Live is the one outlet that doesn’t seem to have the Phillies connected to Brandon Barriera (at least this time). They have Barriera going to the Reds at 1-18.

  14. .

    17. Philadelphia Phillies: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Troy Valley-Cats

    Rocker seems to have a few possible landing spots in the first round – San Diego, Philadelphia, Boston, at least – although I know other teams who still think he slips out of the round. I’ve heard the Phillies connected to Horton as another possible fast-mover. I would guess they don’t go high school pitching for the third year in a row.

    ▶ KLaw also mentions the Phillies as Jacob Berry’s floor.

    1. As much as Berriera has been written and mocked frequently to the Phillies, I think Kumar Rocker has Dombrowski written all over him. Aggressive, if risky, move for an advanced arm who should be major league ready in short order.

    2. I do agree with KLaw on that one aspect….it will be a college/post-college arm.

      1. Yeah. I’ve written this ad nauseum ➡ It is extremely rare for a club to go HS arm with their first round pick three straight years. It’s only happened 2 times since the turn of this century. Having said that, KLaw has said the Phillies would not draft a prep pitcher each of the last two years (Abel & Painter). For me, I’d be OK with another HS hurler if it’s Lesko or Porter.
        Agree with mark on Kumar Rocker. Between the Boras relationship with Middleton and Dombrowski, and the fact that Rocker could help the big club quickly, he makes a lot of sense here. The shoulder may be concerning, but the Phillies have become one of the more risk averse teams in MLB lately.
        Also … I’ve been hoping for Ryan Cermak to make it to #93. That’s not guaranteed. Maybe not even likely. I like the him a lot. I would consider picking him at 1-17 at a discount. He maybe/probably takes 2.5M, and saves the Phillies ~1.3M. That 1.3M added to their third round slot (almost 700-thousand) would allow Brian Barber to offer someone (high ceiling prepster or injured college pitcher) at least 2M in round three. That is = to pick 39 (competitive balance A) cash. Just a thought. Cermak is one of my favorites in this year’s draft.

        The two names I Do Not want to hear at 1-17 are Chase DeLauter or Carson Whisenhunt. I wouldn’t be thrilled with Daniel Susac either.

        1. Here’s my first round pick preference in order:

          1️⃣ Connor Prielipp
          2️⃣ Ryan Cermak (at a big 💲 discount)
          3️⃣ Brock Porter
          4️⃣ Dylan Lesko
          5️⃣ Cade Horton
          6️⃣ Cooper Hjerpe

        2. Agree on DeLauter and Whisenhunt..pass.
          Not sure about Susac.
          I would not mind Preilipp….Gabriel Hughes has the raw tools, just not sure of the hitters he has faced…he may have over-matched them just because they were not top-notch batters.
          Also Rocker has a caution flag for me….also not sure how the signing bonus will work…he and Boras may demand more than slot adn wait it out until the two week signing period almost comes to a close.

          1. Wink wink nudge nudge, Romus. I don’t think DD and Boras would ever confer prior to an official selection…😉

            1. Correction. Just noticed I said Phillies have become one of the more risk averse clubs. Meant to say *least risk averse. Sometimes the fingers can’t keep pace with the brain.

            2. There is nothing wrong/illegal with a team having a deal in place with a prospect (and his advisor/agent) before drafting him. As a matter of fact it would be pretty risky to pick a kid, and not know what he is demanding or will accept.

              Rocker is interesting. The Mets promised him 6M last year, and then offered him zero dollars after seeing his medicals. Yes, Boras will be doing everything he can to make Kumar as much money as possible. But the truth of the matter is Rocker is now 22 YO, and has little negotiating leverage. I’m sure the team picking him tomorrow will get to see all medical info, and will have a deal in place ahead of time. Neither side wants any surprises.

  15. My feeling is that, by all accounts, we made 2 very good selections when we took Abel and Painter. So, if the Board put together by Barber’s staff has a HS arm at 1-17 as the BPA, we have to take that player. It makes no sense not to trust the same evaluators that picked Abel and Painter just because it’s rare that HS arms haven’t gone to a team in the first round 3 straight years.

    1. I suppose it comes down to a few factors that they will decide upon
      ….what has the highest risk factor…a HS arm or college arm?
      ….everything else being equal, especially with health…..who has the fastest ETA..HS arm or College?

  16. Hinkie, I’m with you on your #1,#3 & #4. would love that. I’ve had some contact with someone who knows Prielipp and he says that he is a great kid. he also said that he was practically unhittable before TJ. but I think a lot of us already know that. fingers crossed.
    gm

  17. If you are drafting a first round player you expect them not to be a marginal player but to be a star player. It is not clear to me that Kumar Rocker, while a star college player, has the projection to be a star MLB player. He has velocity. But at the signing level for a round 1 pick I am not sure how he projects versus free agents on a 1 year contract or 2 year contract combined with the need of the big league club for middle infielders

    1. The signing bonus has to be irrespective of any contracts that a FA will sign…not the same pot of money.
      Drafted player bonuses are not calculated into the luxury tax threshold
      Rocker , id drafted could take the full slot or more…but that only counts against the Phillies total ten round pool money.
      His future salary, which will be under team control , for the next six years, is where the Phillies can make ‘hay’ so to speak.

      1. Thank you, Romus! Yes, exactly! You wrote it much better than I…. the Phils have the opportunity to add a player or two without worrying about luxury tax by using the draft bonus pool. It could be someone like Rocker, or it could be a potentially difference-making infielder where the Phils may be bare now, but are likely to be barren in 3 or 4 years. I am not sure that Rocker has the potential to be a topline pitcher, unlike perhaps Abel or Painter….. and why spend a #1 draft pick for a number 3 or 4 pitcher?

        1. Back in 2014, Nola was taken at 7th……they did not have him as a 1 or 2, but looked at him as more of a 3 in the rotation…that is what Ruben at least has said on a few occasions over the years.
          You just never know with pitchers with so many variables from progressive (or regressive) development, to an assortment of injuries that they may incur along the way.
          .

          1. Romus, I have no doubt that you are correct, Amaro may have said that often, and it may have been the club philosophy. But IMO it is a foolish one that leads to lots of Matt Imhof, Chris Oliver, B. Liebrandt and minor league filler…. vs. for example Griff McGarry. So, though my opinion has definitely not been solicited I am glad it does not seem to be the current mode.

  18. .

    17. Phillies

    Callis: Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison (No. 18)
    DeLauter’s combination of tools, size, performance and patience makes No. 17 feel like more of a floor. This could be the ceiling for former Vanderbilt right-hander Kumar Rocker, the biggest wild card in the first round, or Tennessee outfielder Drew Gilbert. The Phillies’ affinity for high school pitchers could lead them to Barriera.

    Mayo: Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama (No. 25)
    They could go high school lefty with someone like Robby Snelling, and while I put Horton here last mock, I’m hearing now they may have backed off.

    *****

    😠👎 on DeLauter

    😎👍 on Prielipp

    I’d also be excited for Rocker if he is Dr approved.
    I like Drew Gilbert, but I love Ryan Cermak … and Cermak would come at a big discount to set up an overpay at #93.
    Barriera and Snelling are risky, but I’d have to trust Barber/Crowson and Company after what they’ve done the past two years.
    I’d also be good if Horton hears a who/his name called @ 1-17.

    1. I agree with Jon Mayo.
      IMO, Prielipp could be pitching, as a long shot, in Philly by August/sept 2023.
      More than likely, 2024 for sure…barring any health setbacks.

      1. Could you imagine a rotation in Reading next season of Abel/Painter/McGarry/Prielipp/Brown? Probably the best in MiLB.

        1. There’s no reason why Abel and Brown won’t be starting next season at Reading. Abel has been solid (considering he’s still only 20) and Brown looks fully recovered from TJ and performing well. Painter should be at Reading too. All 3 seem healthy.

          As for any drafted college pitcher, he would have to be pretty polished to start him at Reading. Jack Leiter starter at AA and he’s having his struggles. Aaron Nola was very polished and he started at High-A, although he eventually made his way to Reading later that year.

          Prielipp has only 28 innings in college. By comparison, Jack Leiter has 125 innings. Not to say that Prielippwon’t be a star, but you figure that the Phillies wil baby him early on if he’s the pick.

          1. Progressive organizations understand there are only so many bullets in a pitcher’s arm. I think today, the good ones are being pushed up the ladder more quickly in an effort to make sure fewer bullets are wasted in MiLB.
            If the Phillies draft Prielipp, I think he could get limited innings in at Clearwater this summer, get some more time in at instructs, and then start 2023 at JS. IMO, he’s good enough to advance to Reading early/midway next season. The guy who may not be in AA at that time is McGarry. He could be in LHV by then.

            1. To add to my post above … I just finished Eric Longenhagen’s mock. He has Prielipp going to the White Sox. He says

              Pick: Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama
              Prielipp presents more upside than is typically available down here, and could also be a candidate for the Garrett Crochet Treatment.

              ***

              Chicago brought Crochet up to the big leagues the same season they drafted him. I doubt Prielipp will move as fast as that , but it does indicate how smart teams view/utilize top college pitchers.

      2. Romus, the published reports are that Prielipp among other things has not regained his control since the TJ a year ago-May. Is there enough data to determine how many people who have TJ never recover that?

        1. IHeart…majority of the time they get it back….comes last however, once their mechanics come natural again…..and happensy after FB velo returns.

  19. 17. Philadelphia Phillies
    Pick: Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS (FL)
    I don’t know if team personnel keep suggesting the Phillies will take a high school pitcher because they have actual intel or because the Phils have done it in the last two years. While Barriera, Brock Porter, and Robby Snelling in my opinion are all scarier from a delivery standpoint than Andrew Painter and Mick Abel, some would consider them to be strong value here on upside.

  20. Over the past 5 years, the Phillies have followed the MLB Pipeline rankings more than almost all other teams when it comes to first round picks.

  21. Last minute pick change from Jim Callis (who is usually pretty clued in).
    From Chase DeLauter
    To Connor Prielipp
    🤞😉

  22. OK gents, let’s get the show on the road as the Orioles are officially on the clock!

    1. My guess is he gets the 6M the Mets had promised him last season. That would also save the Rangers 1.6M in bonus money.

  23. Surprises for sure Texas and Rocker and Cubs with Horton.
    Phillies could have options with HS arms perhaps now, like Lesko or Snelling.

    1. Cam Collier is still available. Would be shocked if he somehow makes it to 1-17.
      Phillies dark horse: Tucker Toman switch-hitting 3Bman.

      1. I think Collier could make it down there the way things are going right now.
        4th youngest player in the draft and playing in JUCO…..sound familiar?
        ….Bryce’s route to the majors.

  24. Man …..Hughes with the ROX…the third surprise pick IMO.
    Phillies wil definitely have heir pick of HS arms….Lesko or Barriera or Snelling…..and also college arm Prielipp I predict.

  25. With Parada @11, IMO Mets go with a pitcher at 14…..one of the HS arms…Brock Porter or Brandon Barriera perhaps if they are still there..

  26. If the Mets pick Jett Williams here, there will be three picks to go. Phillies are guaranteed one of Collier, Prielipp, Lesko, or Porter.

    1. Teams seem to be avoiding HS arms.
      Horton. Hughes,and Rocker going as high as they did surprised me……wonder why teams are not jumping on the HS arms!

    2. Hinkie….both Susac or Collier will be there…LOL..I know yuo do not want Susac.

  27. Jett Williams….whoa…Mets with a little surprise….ranked 21st by Mayo/Callis.

    Phillies will have many options now.

  28. Thank God the Guardians take DeLauter (wasn’t a believer).

    Phillies options:

    Cam Collier
    Connor Prielipp
    Brock Porter
    Brandon Barriera
    Robby Snelling
    Justin Crawford

  29. Wanted Prielipp. A little surprised they passed on Collier, but gotta like the upside in Crawford.

  30. Collier got above slot from the Reds, which have extra space.

    I’m pleased with Crawford and it seemed that the Phillies were really set on him, given how quickly they turned the pick in.

    1. If Barber/Crowson have a “type” in round one, it is young, tall (w/room to fill out), and ceiling over everything.

      BTW … I wonder if Bryce Harper has another extra room at his house, or will Crawford have to bunk with Bryson Stott?

      1. I love that he’s in LV with Bryce and Bryson. He’ll get a Harvard education from them and dad knows a thing or two as well.

        I hope Porter doesn’t go to the Braves. He’s supposedly getting a big payday from someone in the Comp round.

  31. Rays take Xavier Isaac. BA mentioned him as a possible target for the Phillies in the third round.

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