Open Discussion: Week of January 9, 2022

Day 40 of Mister Manfred’s lockout.  No action on the negotiating front.  No likelihood of any for a couple more weeks, it seems. 

 

 


This is the courtesy thread for comments and discussion about the Phillies and other BASEBALL topics.


Rosters and Stuff


Key Dates:

  • December 1, 2021: CBA expires
  • December 2, 2021: Manfred locks out players
  • December 15, 2021: Close of the 2020-21 international signing period
  • January 15, 2022 – Start of the 2021-22 international signing period (thru 12/15)
  • January 28,2022: Caribbean Series
  • TBA: Minor League spring training reporting date (probably late February)
  • April 5, 2022: Lehigh Valley season opener at home v. Columbus
  • April 8, 2022:  Clearwater season opener at home v. Fort Myers
  • April 8, 2022:  Jersey Shore season opener at home v. Aberdeen
  • April 8, 2022:  Reading season opener at home v. Somerset

Transactions: In addition to a couple of free agent minor league signings that were assigned to Reading, there are a few releases and an international signing from a couple months ago.

1/04/2022 – Phillies signed FA SS Kevin Vicuna to an MiLB contract
1/04/2022 – Phillies signed FA 1B Aldrem Corredor to an MiLB contract
12/15/2021 – RHP Maxwel Hernandez assigned to DSL White
12/10/2021 – FCL Phillies released RHP Leonel Aponte
12/10/2021 – FCL Phillies released LHP Riley Wilson
12/10/2021 – FCL Phillies released CF Junior Ortega
12/10/2021 – FCL Phillies released RHP Hsin-Chieh Lin
12/10/2021 – FCL Phillies released RHP Wilson Gherbaz
10/26/2021 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Maxwel Hernandez to an MiLB contract

 

119 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of January 9, 2022

  1. If there is “no action on the negotiations front” I can’t see how this won’t affect ST, at least the start. It is about a month until pitchers and catchers report and 6 weeks until 1st games.

    Long live Bob Saget’s legacy, Philly Boy!

  2. Honestly if I was betting it won’t be until Monday January 31st until we hear there is substantive talks between the sides…Still no economic pressure for either side to sit down and talk.. As I’ve heard on MLB Radio ad nauseum over the lockout “without economic pressure you will never get to the other sides best offer.”

  3. The new J2 season kicks off on Saturday. Because of the pandemic, MLB moved the 2020 and 2021 international periods from July 15 to January 15. Sal Agostinelli has an agreement with 17 YO, Venezuelan LHH SS William Bergolla Jr to become a Phillie this week. He’s a consensus top 10 prospect for this international class (#4 on MLB.com & #8 for BA). And … BTW … Bergolla is the son of a former MLB player. That’s been a pretty impressive resume mention lately (Vlad Jr, Fernando Tatis Jr).
    I think (but am not certain) the next J2 class goes back to it’s normal time frame: July 15 of this year. Agostinelli has an agreement in hand with 16 YO Venezuelan SS Jesus Starlyn Caba for that class. Fangraphs rates Starlyn Caba even higher than Bergolla Jr on their overall International Board.

      1. Hinkie….”Bergolla is the son of a former MLB player. That’s been a pretty impressive resume mention lately (Vlad Jr, Fernando Tatis Jr).”….let us hope this one turns out well,
        …the last one had all the raw tools one looks for, except one, the ability to hit the breaking ball…. …Miguel Tejada Jr.

  4. Here is hoping for Middleton to be waiting on what the new LTT ceiling is, and push through it early. Rumors where an escalating increase would be most likely to happen, escalating each year towards and additional 10-25 mil (estimates). Will have to wait till it’s official or unofficial, but if the LTT limit Does raise, I think it makes it possible for the Phillies to sign both Bryant and Schwarber. I see them sending up to the limit, once all the escalations stop. So if the new LTT is 225 million in 2025, I see Middleton just spending up to this in 2022 season vs being a good boy, and
    Waiting. He needs to pay the pentalty knowing relief is in sight. Will see, this is all hypothetical by me, but given the Harper signing, Middletons desire to get his trophy back, all the other FA signings & trades, the state of the farm … i think this is the move. If not, may the baseball gods go easy on us. Tortured enough, that’s for sure 🙂

    1. They have needs other than those Bryant and Schwarber can fill – and some of those will cost some $$$$$. Very, very hard to see them filling their needs and getting both of those guys and staying under the LTT, even with the escalation.

    2. CBS predicts free agent prices:
      —Kris Bryant (No. 3 on top 50 list): 6 years, $180 million
      —Nick Castellanos (No. 14 on top 50 list): 5 years, $115 million
      —Michael Conforto (No. 23 on top 50 list): 5 years, $80 million
      …assume Schwarber falls somewhere around Conforto.
      The LTT will have to go quite a bit if the Phillies plan on signing any of these players…..let alone two of them

      1. $180M/6 years for Bryant is absurd; that’s a bad contract for any team.

        The predicted numbers ($115/5 years) for Castellanos seem about right; he could even get up to $130M over 5 years.

        Conversely, the predicted Conforto deal ($80M/5 years) seems like a bargain.

        1. OTOH……MLBTR has them at the following projected prices:
          —Kris Bryant. Six years, $160MM.
          —Nick Castellanos. Five years, $115MM.
          —Kyle Schwarber. Four years, $70MM.
          —Michael Conforto. One year, $20MM.

          I could see Bryant signing on for that $26M AAV…..vs $30M AAV that CNS has him at.

          1. Conforto on a pillow contract is very attractive if you can’t sign Schwarber. I don’t want Bryant on a long-term deal – the back end, in my opinion, is going to be brutal.

            1. Conforto at that price is attractive.
              He turns 29 in a few months, and even with a 3 year and 4th yr mutual option, contract around $20/21M AAV may be a good signing for a club.
              Depends if he wants to take the risk on a pillow, and bet on himself.

  5. I think what you say makes sense, Tac3, but I still don’t believe that Middleton exceeds the LT. It may go up, I hope it does, and he will authorize spending to it, but I think his issue is not money, but toeing the line. I could be completely wrong, but when he had a chance to make the Playoffs this past season, the moves were structured to stay under the Cap. I will believe it when I see it, but 1 of Bryant, Schwarber or Conforto, some kind of trade for CF, and a BP signing is what I see.

  6. Romus I do see the Phillies somehow adding Bryant.
    Until the Phillies solve their bullpen issues it really does not matter who is added elsewhere.
    You just cannot lose game after game after game because you cannot get hitters out in the late innings. It looks like it may be a rerun of the past few seasons. Hope I am wrong.

    1. Don…yes I see the same also. Saw a report that the Giants are not expecting him back in SF…..so Philly would appear to be one of the few remaining teams he may end up with.
      You can cross off many of the large market teams…each has other priorities or already saddled with multiple large contracts, more or less, a process of elimination
      Philly will make it number four if they sign him….Harper, Wheeler and JTR….and all three are comparably good contracts when compared to some of the other teams dishing out the money…like the Mets with Lindor, and of course the Yankees with Stanton and soon to be Judge.

  7. Regardless of whether Middleton okays going over the LTT, I seriously doubt that the Phillies will sign more than one big fish, presumably Bryant. Dombrowski will go get a CF via trade, the groundwork of which may have already been poured. I think our speculation over the new threshold is irrelevant as it pertains to the Phillies. If DD needs to exceed it, he will. But I believe the game plan is set no matter what. I don’t see the bullpen being further augmented until the deadline. Re-signing Brad Miller is also a good move. Signing Schwarber would have been done by now if it was gonna happen. I don’t think the Phillies have been seriously in on any other free agents.

    1. One thing about DD – he knows what it takes to put together a complete, competitive roster and he has to know they have some more work to do. I agree only one big fish will be signed (to permit other needs to be addressed) and I’m really hoping it is not Bryant because the last few years of that contract will be awful as he declines to being an average player, at best. DD will further augment the bullpen and will get help in CF. There are a bunch of needs here and only so much room for the one big star. Still hoping for Schwarber or, failing that, Conforto. I also still think it’s possible they sign Schwarber but the odds on that probably have fallen for sure.

  8. mark8:29, I saw that and was surprised as the opening to negotiation on key economic issues was much sooner than I thought it would be believing the end of the month would be the start date. So that’s the good news. The bad news is that the first MLB proposal to lift the minimum wage for players only works out to 3.4%. As they say “that dog won’t hunt.” I believe the MLBA is looking at $700-$750k a year. Boras wants a minimum of $2 million.

  9. Sheer conjecture on my part, but I would not be surprised if – assuming Bryant is signed – that Johan Camargo is given an opportunity to be the opening day 3b, especially if Bohm is included in a package for either Reynolds or Mullins. Bryant would likely man LF and be insurance at 3b. Just have a good feeling about Camargo, if only as a role player, bouncing back. His career numbers are nothing to sneeze at, switch hitter with some pop.

  10. Of course track records are limited, but IMO the Phillies have several players on their roster right now that could be very workable candidates for Center Field – meaning above all an excellent defensive player: Moniak and Muzzioti. I hate to see internal candidates not being given every chance to succeed, and especially not given that chance before trading away top prospects, especially top pitching prospects.

    1. I’d be excited for a Bryan Reynolds trade, and I would not put it past Dave Dombrowski to get that done. I have always felt (and have posted numerous times) that Ben Cherington would insist on three of the Phillies top 4 prospects (Painter/Abel/Stott/Rojas). I’d love to see DD expand the deal (maybe add Azuaje and Cabrera) to include David Bednar.

      I would not, however, give up multiple top prospects for Cedric Mullins. Mullins doesn’t have the same track record as Reynolds. 2021 was more of an outlier.
      Mullins lifetime MLB slash … .265/.333/.451
      Mullins lifetime MiLB slash … .265/.323/.426
      Mullins in 2021 ………………… .291/.360/.518

      Having said all this, I still think Kevin Kiermairer or Ramon Laureano are much more realistic CF trade options.

      1. Hinkie,……….what would you give up for Mullins? What IYO would be fair value for him? I’m kinda intrigued by him, probably the potential he has.

        1. Skeet … the Orioles are going to demand the same type of return for Mullins as the Pirates will ask for Reynolds. They both come with 4 seasons of team control. I just don’t feel comfortable projecting Mullins going forward. Not saying Mullins can’t continue to be 5-6 WAR player. Just saying he’s far from a sure thing.
          I’d give up something like Rojas, Luis Garcia, Bailey Falter, and Micah Ottenbreit. Baltimore would never take that, but I’m just not completely sold on Mullins.

      2. Hinkie…let’s not kid ourselves….when Dave and Middleton decide to make a trade for that CFer……they will surely run it thru Harper and get his feedback.

        I am not sure he will be overly enthused with either Kiermairer or Laureano……but probably will lean Reynolds or Mullins if it were his preference..

        Of course he will never come out and denounce or try to nix a trade that the FO decides on making, but you can always read him when he gets to talk about it.

        1. Romus … TBH, I think Harper would love playing with Kevin Keirmairer. Besides the gold glove, and cannon for an arm, Keirmairer is a top notch clubhouse guy. That is a very under-the-radar need for this club. He’s a dude I believe Harper would have a lot of respect for.

          1. I would love to get Reynolds and bite down hard on the prospect cost BUT my head tells me Kiermaier will be manning CF in 2022. And Harper will be more than fine with it, especially if Kris Bryant is on the other side of KK.

      1. Good power bat and a solidly built youngster.
        Very interesting Fangraphs recognizes him that high so early into his career..

        1. I think he’s in the 15-20 range right now with a ⬆. He’s got good bat-to-ball skills, some pop, and plays with an attitude. I got in on a BA chat a couple of months ago, and asked about Lee. They said he’s a kid other organizations think highly of.
          I bet his name is coming up frequently when Dombrowski calls clubs about CFers (Tampa for Keirmairer, Oakland for Laureano). Phillies could have another Curtis Mead situation on their hands.

      2. Yeah, I thought he was my little secret. I saw him play in the FCL and Instructs. He caught my eye. I didn’t want to influence the voting by hyping him. Just as I didn’t read the FanGraphs write-up, I don’t want it to influence my write-up when I start to catch up on the prospect write-ups.

    1. #22 MM……………the cloud of expectation is starting to drift away and dissipate. Will he be a throw-in via a DD deal and/or is this his make or break year? Time waits for no man. How many years will they hold him?

    2. Notable to me are the rankings of Rojas (3 over Painter), Vierling (5), McGarry (10), Lee (12) and Viars (15) who IMO could be the next “Big Piece” of Phuture Phillies. But no Azuaje at all?

      1. “……….doesn’t stand out to scouts in a way that demands placement on the main part of the list. Azuaje was age-appropriate for the GCL and crushed it there, but he’s physically mature for any kind of prospect let alone a 19-year-old. He’s a present power flier without a clear defensive home.”.

  11. Something to discuss!

    Inquirer put out a “trades” article

    https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/phillies-trades-rumors-mlb-hot-stove-20220112.html

    Phillies get 3B Matt Chapman from Oakland for 3B Alec Bohm, Marchan, and OF Mickey Moniak.

    Phillies get 2B/OF Whit Merrifield from Kansas City for OF prospects Símon Muzziotti and Ethan Wilson and single-A RHP Cristian Hernandez.

    Phillies get INF/OF Ketel Marte and SS Nick Ahmed from the Diamondbacks for Marchan, Rojas, INF Nick Maton, and LHP Bailey Falter.

    Phillies get OF Max Kepler from the Twins and RHP Amir Garrett from the Reds; Twins get RHP Tyler Mahle from the Reds and RHP Hans Crouse, SS Gregorius, and $14 million from the Phillies; Reds get INF/OF prospect Austin Martin from the Twins and Marchan and Rojas from the Phillies.

    1. Count me in on the Chapman and Whitfield trades, although KC would/should ask for more in return for Whit. I like Ketel but Marchan can’t be traded both to Oakland AND to Arizona. Pass on Kepler.

        1. Envision how Chapman’s and Kiermaier’s gold gloves would strengthen the pitching staff. Chapman, Harper, Hoskins and Bryant could combine for 130 HRs which would also alleviate pressure on the arms.

        2. I would run, not walk, to make that Chapman trade. He’s a 3.5 WAR player in a horrible year for him. In a good year, he’s darn near a superstar. If I can get him for that type of package, I’m all over that.

    2. I’ve been reading this blog since James started it but rarely comment. I enjoy the discussions. My long readership period provides somewhat of an historic perspective.
      I remember when Ruben Amaro, Jr., was castigated for annihilating the farm in order to exploit the open window of competition at that time (of course, after the window closed without an additional championship). Everyone decided we need to build through the farm.
      Most of the contributors in the subsequent period felt that we needed high ceiling players to produce future stars. That did not work out so well- whether it was the fault of scouting or development (or both) and everyone decided that we needed to emulate the Cardinals and draft solid high floor players instead.
      Of course, that did not work out to our expectations, so the trend moved back to high ceiling players early in the draft. The result of this sea change is yet to be written.
      The point is that it is much easier to be smart retrospectively than prospectively. As we debate the possible scenarios to strengthen the team, we need to consider that there are multiple outcomes that may result from any move and to prospectively consider which range of outcomes we can best live with.
      I’m glad that I’m not a GM who has to decide one way or another and will forever be held responsible for the outcome, good or bad.

  12. Here’s my take on the trade proposals, and I know I am much more reluctant to move certain guys, Stott, Painter and Abel, than some of you. I think Stott is the future SS, buddies with Harper and not getting traded. I want to ask you about the Pitchers. We have not been great at developing SPs. We have 2 guys who are really highly regarded. If we trade both, or either, there is such a huge gap to whoever is next, that I can’t trade them Not for Reynolds or anyone else. We have a number of future Relievers, and maybe Crouse and Miller are future 4/5s, but where are our future ToRs coming from? I respect all of your opinions, this is just my take on why Stott, Painter and Abel don’t get moved.

    1. Matt, in a vaccuum I would say you are absolutely right for any reluctance to part with top prospects. However in context, timing in this case is huge. If Dave Dombrowski wasn’t the POBO/GM, and the core players were not in their prime years, then NO I wouldn’t dare trade such young promising arms.

    2. matt13…… ;We have not been great at developing SPs’….looking around the league, that is the central nemesis for many teams. Phillies are not alone, though they have come up with some notables.
      Take out the first round picks of teams that selected pitchers and go from there.
      First rounders are scouted very well and one can expect some measure of success Not all, but many come on.
      Then look at the Brewers…..their top guys were further along in their drafts..Woodruff and Burnes…and that is what I look for in a club for pitcher development.
      I hope arms like Pipkin, Lindow, Hernandez, McArthur et al start developing into MLB pitchers.

  13. I think all of these are good discussion points.
    Bryant- yes
    Chapman – yes
    Kiermaier – no for me
    I think Phillies will put a competitive team on field.
    My concern remains with BP arms who can actually get hitters out in the 8th and 9th inning with a lead. This issue alone has kept the Phillies out of the playoffs the last couple years. Why can the Rays find different guys it seems every year that CAN get outs in the last 2 innings. I saw a stat when the Phillies played the Rays. The Rays were like 29-0 in games that they had I think it was a 2 run lead at any time in the game. Could you imagine the Phillies record in recent years if they could do that?
    Playoffs. Playoffs.

  14. Exactly my concern, Romus. I do not intend or mean to discredit any of the Pitching prospects by saying I think they are more than likely future Relievers. Morales, Grff McGarry, and others could be high leverage arms that significantly help us win games. But, as far as a #2, let alone a #1 SP, after Painter and Abel, there really isn’t anyone.

  15. Some more J2 Phillies news …
    The Phils are one of a handful of clubs in the hunt for a couple of hard throwing Asian hurlers. The new signing period opens this weekend.

    1. BTW … both guys are college players in Taiwan, so they are (roughly 21 YO). Usually these college players in Taiwan don’t sign until after they are finished school so it’s possible they don’t come stateside for a few more months.

      1. OK … so after doing some more research, it looks like Pan Wen-Hui is just 19 YO, and throws a forkball and CB in addition to the big FB.

        And Lin Chen-Wei is apparently 20 YO.

  16. Topic for discussion: the future of Rhys Hoskins.

    Jim Salisbury expressed doubt that the Phillies will eventually have room to sign the free agent Hoskins following the 2023 season. He makes $7.5M this year, and his final arb year will likely touch $10M-$12M should he turn in a solid 2022.

    What say y’all?

    1. Scott Boras is thinking a ‘home-town discount’….NOT.
      I think the Phillies will make an offer to extend him prior to the beginning of the 2023 season, which will be in good faith, and Boras and Rhys will reject it…..Phillies then will let him walk after 2023.

    2. I think Rhys Hoskins after 2023 is entirely TBD. So much will depend on his performance over the next two years, whether they can move an older Realmuto because O’Hoppe (or someone else) is ready to take over behind the plate to reduce payroll, whether they develop a hot young power hitting first baseman in the minors (or trade for a guy who becomes a hot ticket), and what Hoskins would be willing to accept. And, listen, I like Hoskins as much or more than practically everyone here, but he’s a first baseman – a bat – which is replaceable commodity when you’re talking about big bucks free agent contracts. Let him play out (or get close to playing out) his committed years (which, by the way, could change due to the CBA) and then let’s see if his demands fit our payroll, roster and needs. And, by the way, if you sign Schwarber for 4 years, you might not be that desperate to keep Hoskins after 2022.

  17. A lot depends on whatever this off season may bring and then how we do in 2022. For instance, assuming Bohm is not traded for Matt Chapman, shows an improvement at the plate but not in the field, Rhys may go in a trade to open 1B for Bohm. Or, Bohm excels at 3B, Rhys hits the way we all hoped he would and he gets re-signed. Is too pollyannaish?!?!

    1. On Bohm, it is very, very hard for me to see him succeeding at third even in the medium term. He’s going to end up in the near term (1-2 years) as an outfielder or first baseman and he’s going to have to justify his existence by hitting really well, which he did not do last year.

  18. Regarding CF, the reason I believe that Dombrowski will have to settle for Kiermaier instead of Reynolds isn’t that he won’t offer a competitive package for the latter but because the Phillies best offer won’t beat those of rival suitors.

    1. Maybe Max Kepler would be a better offensive fit…and will not cost as much…Twins with Kirilloff coming on, and needed to play full-time now,Buxton coming back and Larnach in LF …they may try to move Kepler.

      1. For me, (and I’ve mentioned this a number of times) Bradley Zimmer could be a dark horse CF trade candidate for DD. He’s got a tremendous pedigree, plays good D, but has big time K problems that have led to all kinds of offensive frustrations. I’d like to see Kevin Long get a chance to solve the Zimmer puzzle.

        .

        Also … before the lockout, Cleveland added Steven Kwan to their 40-man. He’s a big time OBP prospect who would fit perfectly into the top of the Phillies lineup if the Guardians aren’t interested in dealing Zimmer.

        1. Interesting, Hinkie. Perhaps Moniak for Zimmer, even up? Zimmer is 29 but under control through 2024, barring CBA changes. Makes $1.5M in ’22.

          1. It is highly, highly unusual for a hitting prospect to turn his career around at age 29 when he has no track record of success so, for all the metrics, I’m not excited about Zimmer unless you get get him for a song on a no risk basis. Steven Kwan is someone I’d love to get – exactly the type of player I was talking about when I said we don’t need Brian Reynolds (I mean, of course we could use him, but he’ll be way too expensive in prospect/player costs), we need the NEXT Brian Reynolds.

            1. “we need the NEXT Brian Reynolds.”,
              …more than likely Daulton Varsho, but the DBacks probably already assume that may be the case.

              Further, any CFer that they get will have to agree with Bryce….so someone with ‘potentia’l vs someone who is ‘already there’, may not be his cup of tea.

            2. I have been sitting back and absorbing all the discussion since the off season. I am ready to give my opinion, either we go all in or play the hand we have been dealt. There are some budding superstars we could get and some players that are basically where our prospects will probably be in a couple years. If someone will be available during ST, or during the year or in the next off season, then wait. I’m comfortable with Moniak, Hasely, Vierling, Maton, Williams, Bohm, Muzzioti, Kingery, etc..

  19. What do you guys think about Suarez and Bohm for Marte, Varsho, Bumgarner, and Kelly? Varsho can get a shot at CF for a year and Vierling in LF. Carmago can start at 3b. He had a nice year when he started in 2018. I think he is a very underated signing. He was only stuck behind Donaldson then Riley!

    Suarez is basically a unknown but he is at peak value most likely and there’s too much posibility of him only being a setup/ closer. 6 SPs might seem to be too much but that should always be the plan I think. Eflin is out for half the year anyways and if the other 5 are healthy he goes to the bullpen where I think he would be great. He should probably go there anyway because of his knees.

    DD can figure out how to unload whatever salary he can with Gregorious and Segura. I would really like the Phils to get Staumont and Barlow from KC and I would overpay for them.

    1. Phi93 … I agree with you. Ranger Saurez will never hold more value than he does right now. I’ve mentioned using him as a trade chip a few times this offseason. It never goes over well on this board. Ranger was phenomenal in 2021, but it’s hard to imagine (IMO) the league not catching up with him going forward (especially) if he doesn’t expand his repertoire. He’s going to have to throw more than FB/CH.
      Where I disagree with you is your trade target. I’m not a guy who is drunk on Ketel Marte (another not so popular opinion around here). Marte can’t play CF IMO. I even have a hard time envisioning him being avg in a corner. I’d rather do something like Saurez, Bohm, and Maton to Oakland for Ramon Laureano and Frankie Montas. I’d then sign Trevor Story to team with Bryson Stott to man the left side of the Phillies’ infield (in whatever spots they fit best). The club’s defense would be much better, which would have a positive effect on the team’s pitchers. In this scenario, Camargo becomes a super utility player who moves all over the field as the club uses multiple guys to DH.

      1. Trading Ranger would be above all THE most outside the box move Dombrowski could make. I don’t advocate it, but if you can get a stud CF for him, I might have to grin and bear it. However, I seriously doubt DD will pull the trigger on that one, even with his reputation.

      2. I’m not drunk on Marte at all either. He would be 2b with this trade. Varsho in cf. It just seems the best way for the Phils to get quality players is to take a risky contract because they don’t have many chips. Bumgarner is 17m thru 2024.

        I def agree about Story but he’s prob 6/150? They have got to find cost controlled players. Carmargo was good defensively in 2018 per fangraphs. A trade like this gives 4 young players a shot to succeed in the lineup. Gibson is gone after this year and then maybe they have a very comparable player in Falter for little money next year.

        If things were to go well with a trade like this, they would have Abel, Rojas, and O’Hoppe as some decent chips to get players at the deadline to make them a better team for the playoffs. Ideally, Abel shows that he would be ready at least midway in 2023 and he’s then off the table.

  20. Trade proposal…

    PHILLIES get:
    Whit Merrifield 2b/CF

    ROYALS get:
    Rafael Marchan c
    Matt Vierling OF

    Not sure how to interpret Merrifield’s contract monetarily but he’s under contract through 2023. Spotrac lists him as making $6.75M in ’21, $2.75M in ’22, and then $7.5M in ’23 before entering free agency. But with KC historically looking to shed future salary, Merrifield at 32 figures to be a nice versatile addition should DD find either a taker for Segura or no luck finding a CF option better than Kiermaier.

    1. While I understand that Ranger’s value is high (people say it will never be higher, but, really, you don’t know that. If Ranger throws 160 innings and pitches to a 3.3 ERA next year, which is very possible, his value will be higher next year), we aren’t sitting on a treasure trove of starting pitchers. So, if you get rid of him to plug another hole, then you now have what could be a gaping hole in the rotation. So, if you trade Ranger Suarez, you need a LOT in return. Ranger pitched to a 5.8 WAR in 106 innings, which is an insanely high level of production. That type of performance doesn’t grow on trees even if you project a reasonable amount of regression from him.

      First of all, if I’m DD, I’m extremely reluctant to part with Suarez in the first place. You trade him, it at all, only if the offer is one you feel you can’t refuse. Not only can I refuse the offers I’ve seen here, they aren’t of equivalent value.

  21. Trade proposal…

    PHILLIES get:
    Cody Bellinger 1b/cf

    DODGERS get:
    Jean Segura 2b
    Mickey Moniak of
    Casey Martin if
    Francisco Morales rhp

    Bellinger ($17M) with final arb year in 2023 and Segura ($14.25M) and club option for 2023 virtually cancel each other out, financially (perhaps LAD should throw in a little cash). The promise of a 25 year old Bellinger may be worth the prospects, none of which are top 10 but still projectable at the big league level, especially with an organization known for developing talent. Personally I can see Moniak wearing Dodger blue. Again, I like to spitball trade ideas…

    1. ….bear in mind a roster with Bryant and Bellinger oozes flexibility. Maton could hold down 2b unless DD swings a deal for Ketel.

    2. mark……do you really think Friedman will be agreeable to that package?
      He needs pitching……Suarez and Mickey would get it done…..IMO, that is what he would agree to.
      They are already over the Lux Yax….so cross off Segura…and Martin and Morales are not ready for Dodger Stadium.

  22. The new J2 period kicks off today. Phillies have a ~5.2M dollar pool.
    According to BA, Sal Agostinelli has deals in place with:

    William Bergolla Jr., SS, Venezuela
    Aaron Escobar, SS, Venezuela
    Romel Perez, OF, Venezuela
    Leny Carela, SS, Dominican Republic

  23. You have 2 sides that think each got screwed in the last CBA, and want major fixes. Plus, the level of mutual trust is a negative number. I wish I had faith in the leadership on either side, but I don’t. I fully expect ST to be impacted.

  24. Official: Phillies sign Venezuelan ss William Bergolla Jr for $2.2M, MLB ranks him #4 among int’l prospects, Baseball America has him #8.

  25. I read somewhere, and it may not be accurate, but there needs to be an agreement in place by February 1 to not impact ST. Is that factual, or not? Is there anyone who believes that will happen? I don’t think there is any serious negotiating going to start until we are into February. And, no, I don’t think anything that has happened so far has been serious negotiating.

  26. I know it is a subjective vote. For me, Pee Wee Reese and Phil Rizzuto, both, from everything I have read/heard, terrific human beings, and are Hall of Famers, and Jimmy was a better player. More recently, Barry Larkin is a Hall of Famer, and a player I enjoyed watching. I agree he is a Hall of Famer. So, is Jimmy. To me, he was as good as Larkin. I feel the same way about Chase Utley. A Hall of Fame player to me. Yes, his number of years as an outstanding 2B were shortened by injuries, but I believe he is a Hall of Famer. Now, I don’t vote, and this is only my opinion, and neither may make it, but they would get my vote.

  27. Signings so far according to Baseball America’s website:

    Philadelphia Phillies ($5,179,700)

    William Bergolla Jr., SS, Venezuela
    Aaron Escobar, SS, Venezuela
    Romel Perez, OF, Venezuela
    Leny Carela, SS, Dominican Republic

    1. Hinkie …you have any details on these?

      Enrique Segura, RHP, Dominican Republic
      Jeffrey German, RHP, Dominican Republic
      Edwar Chirinos, LHP, Venezuela
      Manolfi Jimenez, CF, Dominican Republic
      Nolan Beltran, SS, Columbia

      1. No, Romus. I don’t. I’m always most interested in the arms (especially LHPs). I’ve searched everywhere for info on Edwar Chirinos with no success.
        I wish we also got more info on signing bonuses. I’d love to have a better understanding of what kind of shape the Phillies are in for either of the Taiwanese hurlers they’ve been linked to (I posted earlier in this thread). Pan Wen-Hui (19 YO) and Lin Chen-Wei (20 YO) are older/more advanced & pretty exciting prospects. Here’s hoping Sal Agostinelli can fit at least one of them into this J2 class.

        1. Hinkie…..maybe Fans’ Eric Longenhagen or BA’s Ben Badler may have some insight….,maybe they will open up a chat room tomorrow or this week sometime on their websites…..you use to go on there in the past.

        2. Hinkie after reading your reply above on information on Chirinos I tried emailing Jim Salisbury since he had the byline on the original news release of his signing. For whatever reason (much of it no doubt being that I don’t have a twitter or muck rake account) I have so far been unsuccessful. Likely you already traveled that road, but if by I any chance I find anything out, you will be the second to know!

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