281 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of November 7, 2021”

1. Opinions? Should the Phillies try to keep Gary Jones in the organization? He had such an outstanding record in the Cubs organization.

2. Michael Conforto top FA target IMO. LH bat can play either COF spot. .356 career OBP. Hard nosed player. Great teammate. Boras client.
   I’ve seen estimates as low as 5 yrs/90M. I believe it will probably take something more like 6/132 or 7/147. Won’t be excited to lose a draft pick, but there is a chance that can change with the new CBA. That’s why you wait until after Dec 1 to sign him.

   I’ll be really interested to see how DD fills the closer spot. FA or trade. I’ve seen a Segura-for-Kinbrel suggestion (I forget where). I would not do that. I keep coming back to my original idea: Corey Knebel makes the most sense as the best, most cost efficient option. The fact that Dombrowski drafted him with a first round pick eight years ago completes the circle.

   1. If the team signs a LHH (Conforto or Schwarber), I think they’ll still need to acquire a RH bench bat. That was a glaring need in 2021. How many times did Brad Miller have to pinch hit against a LHP? Too many times because the Phillies lacked a thumping RH bat off the bench. I would target Garrett Cooper via trade. Miami reportedly planned to shop him this summer before he blew out his elbow in a game against the Phillies.

      1. With the DH likely to be in the NL’s immediate future, I see Mark Canha (without a QO attached) being an appealing target. Canha could see time in LF even if they also sign Schwarber who could split time there, while Canha can play 1b while Hoskins DHes against LHPs.

         I agree with Hinkie that Knebel makes sense as an option to close, and not exhorbitant in price, maybe 3/$30M-$33M. Plus yes he’s a DD draftee. Iglesias is good but won’t be worth what he’ll command.

   2. I like Michael Conforto, but I don’t love him, especially at any contract longer than 3 or 4 years. And I really dislike the idea of a 5 or 6, or God forbid 7, year contract for him. He is very inconsistent year to year, which also concerns me and it’s not like he’s a great fielder.

      The guy I really want is Schwarber. I think he’s turned the corner and is going to be one of the top sluggers in baseball over the next 3-4 years. I also think you can get him for 3-4 years at a reasonable price.

      1. Only as a DH, he’s a terrible fielder.

3. Since the QOs were announced yesterday, along with Jim’s insights above, I’m not as confident that the Phillies will sign a free agent with a QO attached. If they do, perhaps DD will work a trade or two where prospects come back in return to offset our losing a 2nd round pick…or however the new CBA will be constructed. However, the more I think about it, I don’t believe the QO will be altogether preclusive. A Chris Taylor makes sense, as does a Marcus Semien, players with positional flexibility to allow for young players like Bohm and Stott to settle at their respective positions. I’ve cooled on Semien only because Taylor seems to fill more of a need. And since Schwarber has no QO attached, I can see Dombrowski target him at a fair price.

   As for Moniak and yesterday’s comments pouring water on the prospect of his role on the 2022 roster, if he’s not traded this winter (which is possible but IMO not likely since his value on the market probably isn’t high) I see him platooning with another useful player in Vierling. There’s something Max Muncy-ish about him. The Phillies need a shot of self confidence that kids like Vierling and Stott seem to exude.

   I still go back to Dombrowski being a big trade guy, and the free agent money will be spread around. I also see him managing to shed Didi and some of his salary, maybe half, and getting back a decent prospect, or by taking on salary with real value. And yes, the Yankees can figure in such a deal. Even if NYY signs Corey Seager, the right field porch at the Stadium would justify Didi as a DH/utility man for one season. Anyway, I would be mildly surprised (and disappointed) if the Phillies opened next season with Didi on the roster at all, let alone starting at SS.

4. Jim mentioned the A’s and Reds as possible trade partners. We’ve already been discussing Chapman and Manaea from Oakland. What might it take to acquire Jesse Winker and Sonny Gray from Cincinnati? Winker is due $7M in ’22 with his 3rd and final arb year in ’23 before he’s scheduled for free agency in ’24. Gray is also under contract through ’23, making $10M in ’22 and $12M in ’23. I don’t think the importance of rotation depth can be overstated with this Phillies team.

5. Jim looking forward to shifting through your new project info.

   Some random thoughts, on planning the roster construction/value for $:
   Rumors are Phillies may trade from a position of strength, it probably makes sense given all the holes the team seemingly has. I’ll throw a curveball, that takes patience for 2022. SP & C are positions of strength imo. So looks like Nola maybe one to be dangled. We’ve discussed it’s He doesn’t have a great track record on pitching on short rest, you kinda need that for the playoffs, but he also sends back the biggest return over anyone not named Wheeler. What if the FO decides to keep Nola, they could have a fairly cheap SR overall, that produces high value in return. They need to hold on until Abel is ready. Wheeler, Nola, Ranger, efflin, Abel. Not in that order necessarily but Wheeler makes roughly 20, plus Nola is 15&16 mil next 2 years including option. With efflin .. at 10 eventually. That’s pretty low, with the potential for another prospect to take a spot once Nola contract is up. They have a bloat payroll, but I will say I very happy with where their SR is, both talent & finance wise. They are in good shape there in whichever way they decide to go. They are effectively at 9.4 million per SR member, with what is pretty top quality out put. The bullpen is just about the opposite, but that’s another story. I’d lean on trading Gibson, if I needed to shed more salary but hopefully they can make whatever moves they need and keep the strength of the SR going. Will have to see as DD loves to deal and that includes prospects

6. Kiley McDaniel: Which shortstop could get $300 million? Rankings and contract projections for top 50 MLB free agents https://t.co/N7ZmHur9I7

   — Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 8, 2021

   Trevor Story 5/115M (23M AAV)
   Marcus Semien 5/110M (22M AAV)
   Kris Bryant 5M/90 million (18M AAV)
   Starling Marte 4/68M (17M AAV)
   Javy Baez 1/25M he’ll turn down 3/60M
   Nick Castellanos 3/54M (18M AAV)
   Michael Conforto 3/51M (17M AAV) could settle for a one year pillow deal
   Kyle Schwarber 3/45M (15M AAV)
   Raisel Iglesias 3/45M (15M AAV)
   Chris Taylor 3/39M (13M AAV)
   Kenley Jansen 2/18M (9M AAV)

   IMO these numbers are very doable. If they are in this neighborhood, I’d expect DD to be very busy in the FA market.

   1. That is how I saw Story’s contract a few weeks back….roughly JTR money.
      Personally I would go for him…..move Stott to 2B, and longer range…. in 2 years , maybe 3, move Story to 3B and let Luis Garcia handle SS.
      For 2022…Segura can swing over to 3B.

   2. I like this numbers, they are lower than I’d of expected in both $ & contract years.
      Castellanos is intriguing at 18 mil and only 3 years. If this is the case, I’d do what I can to rid myself of Didi’s contract (though I feel he could have a decent bounce back year career Avgs) and trade segura to make $$$ for a SS signing. Segura was one of our best bats, no doubt but I’d argue these moves make the Phillies better. You’ll need to utilize the youth more with Stott to 2nd. Have Bohm tough it out at 3rd for growing pains l, hopefully he can swing it. I’d like to bring galvis back as a cheap protection plan for 2B & 3B.

      CF – trade/Moniak/Hasley etc
      RF – Harper
      LF – Castellanos/conforto (not bad either)
      1B – Hoskins
      SS – Siemens
      C – Realmuto
      2B- Stott
      3B- Bohm

      If CF can come through, that’s a pretty tough lineup. I like all of Castellanos, comforto & schwarber .. I’d take any of them, but with the money very close, I’m taking Castellanos as 1st preference. He’s a beast.

   3. Schwarber(LF) or Chris Taylor(CF). The Phillies need to get at least one of them.

   4. There are more stud SS than teams that are willing to pay up for them. I expect DD to wait it out. See if there is a good player (maybe Semien or Story) who is the 5th or 6th SS to come off the board and see if he can get him in a 1 year prove it deal or a 2 year deal.

7. First, thank you jim for all the work it took to get the Prospect profile together. I always look forward to the opinions here about ranking prospects. I agree with Hinkie in waiting until after Dec. 1 to see what the QO penalty may be. I am very reluctant to lose our pick I was disappointed that Taylor received one, as I was intrigued by adding him. I would be very happy if Bohm and Stott could play 3B and SS. But I am still really concerned about Defense. Maybe Stott is really good? I don’t know, but I want a defensive standout on the Roster. So, I ask, Galvis or Simmons? Simmons is about as good defensively as there is.

8. … and Jim Bowden has just released his own FA rankings w/projected salaries.

   Top 25 MLB free agents of 2021-22: Jim Bowden’s rankings, contract predictions and best team fits for a stacked class

   via @TheAthletic https://t.co/hWJEu4qrN2

   — Jim Bowden⚾️ (@JimBowdenGM) November 8, 2021

   Bowden’s projections are generally much higher than Kiley McDaniel’s (probably more realistic). For instance:

   Marcus Semien 5/148M
   Trevor Story 7/204M
   Kris Bryant 6/150M
   Starling Marte 4/104M
   Nick Castellanos 5/126M
   Michael Conforto 5/90M

   He lists the Phillies in a group of teams for Conforto. He also lists the Phillies for Japanese OFer Seiya Suzuki (5/101M).

   1. Clarrification: Bowden lists the Phillies *in a group of teams for Suzuki.

      1. If Dave D can get Suzuki….that would settle an open hole….he has even played third base early on….but I see him as the Lfer
         I think he will sign for a little less than that $20M AAV…..maybe 5 @ $18M AAV

   2. Yeah, Bowden’s are way high…if McDaniel is closer to reality, those estimates are definitely with the range of a lot of teams. Personally, I think POBOs and GMs generally prefer higher AAV and shorter years. There are quite a few excellent players in this market, a fact which will bring the real values back down to earth. Again, positional flexibility likely determines DD’s targets: Taylor, Semien and even Kris Bryant. And Schwarber poses to get an extra year with many teams in demand for a big thumper with the DH added to the NL.

      1. McDaniel may see the Lux Tax Treshold coming down….if the owners give in to many of the players wishes….then the owners may get a lower LTT….they started at $180, I think if they eventually get it…it will be $200M , with a floor of $100M to prevent teams from tanking and to ensure small market teams contribute their fair share to salaries across the league.
         Plus onwers want more teams in the play-offs, for obvious reasons…..and players want it also to have more opp to get that ring.
         That is also on the table.

9. The Cardinals usually hit well as a team. This year they earned gold gloves @ 1st, 2nd, 3rd, LF, and CF. Wow and we can’t catch anything.

   1. Skeet….and in 2019 or 2020, if I recall, they had one of the worst defenses in the league, according to DRS.
      So it can be done…and Dave D will do it.

   2. They almost had six. I saw Yadier Molina at 39 years old came in second at catcher… Unbelievable..

10. Oddly the Rockies did not QO Jon Gray….

    Obviously the situation with Didi appear untenable but all 29 GMs probably know that. That’s $15.250.000 of dead money….whether its Didi or some other name.

    JM should greenlight for 1 year at least that DD go over the LT.

    1. DMAR…would you trade Didi to the Yankees for Sanchez?
       With the DH on its way…Sanchez can fill that role…plus save $7/8M
       Phillies may have to give up another player, but
       Cashman needs a placeholder until Volpe or Peraza come up.

       1. Romus if he could swing that sure why not…

    2. Agree with DMAR. I’ve posted before that I’m going to take DD at his word when he says:

       1. the club sees Bryson Stott as a SS (even though I have my doubts he can stay there).
       2. ownership is willing to ignore the cap for the right player.

       Many other big market clubs go over the LTT (but stay below the second penalty level), and re-set/go back under after a year or two. The Phillies are in their window for contention. It may not be the prettiest window, but it is their window. Harper/Wheeler/JTR/Nola are all in their primes. Now is the time to pour whatever financial resources into the team you can.

    3. The Rockies have no idea what they’re doing. If they don’t QO Gray, then trade him at the deadline. It makes no sense to let him walk with no compensation unless he’s massively injured.

11. I think there is a good chance that McDaniel’s numbers are low for every player on that list. I would definitely take Starling Marte at those #s. We know we have no shot at Suzuki. Have we ever been even in the final 3 for one of the Japanese players? And we never even tried the Iron Chef Morimoto as Director of Food Services idea! Hoskins, Segura, Stott, Bohm, JTR, Schwarber, Marte and Harper. An upgrade IMO. We have money for a Closer and a depth SP. Galvis and Miller on the Bench, a couple of BP arms. I think that’s doable and, if Bohm and Stott play well, a good team.

12. I’ve posted my belief the Phillies will be hot and heavy for Michael Conforto to be their next LFer. I think they’ll battle it out with the Mariners and Mets for him.
    Bryant would be great, but I just don’t think the Giants will be outbid for him.

    CF needs a solution, and I believe Dombrowski will most likely settle that spot through trade. Any of JBJ (most likely), Kiermairer, Buxton, Laureano (in a dream scenario), or Bradley Zimmer could end up here.

    1. Hinkie, SF will be tough for Bryant, no doubt but I think the Phillies could be in play because Harper & Bryant are apparently great friends. I know money talks, but so do wives… and their wives are also great friends. I’m just saying I don’t think it’s a slam dunk SF gets him back. I’m not 100% I want him on the Phillies over other FA, but there is an element to Bryant’s FA that I’d not think is usually present. Will see. I don’t have interconnections to the team that I used to, but i gotta believe when Harper was being courted by Middleton, scenarios like this were discussed. Again will see, but don’t be surprised if Harper repurposes his Trout pompous for Bryant

    2. Giants have many holes to fill with current team’s free agents and Posey’s unexpected retirement also a factor….BUT…they have plenty of $$$$ to play with.
       Do not see Bryant leaving there.

       1. Romus I hear that, but don’t discredit the Phillies being a player for the relationship I outlined Earlier. There could’ve been a handshake deal at the time with Middleton. I’m not guaranteeing it …but I’m not discarding it so easily either. I say it’s a 50/50 chance only because SF is well positioned for a bid war.

          1. Tac3…….that very well may happen
             SF will fight to keep him…..with Posey gone and perhaps Belt….they wil need a big established bat in that lineup….and Crawford is due to come down to his level at his current age.

13. Thoughts on the SR:
    This is the strength of team, and where the surplus is to trade, along with catcher imo. Rumors about trading someone from the SR seem to be plausible, with Nola bringing back the best return, excluding Wheeler. Thinking about it some more, Phillies should trade Gibson (& possibly efflin if really needed) Tough choices but if the FO can hold onto Abel and or painter, The team is setup very well for a low cost SR with m top tier Production. Assuming the prospects materialize. If you trade Gibson, he effectively brings nolas salary down. A prospect fills in, until either Abel
    Or painter take the job. You’re looking at a 9.5 million a year salary per SR member. When it was the 4 aces, it’s was like 18 mil a year per member (guessing) 9.5 million, That’s pretty good imo in today’s world. . Wheeler, Nola, Efflin, Ranger & Abel/painter. 3 or 4 home grown arms … will take it.

    1. Well, the SR is the strength of the team, but I certainly wouldn’t trade from there – at least from the top 3 – for a number of reasons.

       First, it may be a strength, but it’s not deep – at all. There’s no Ian Anderson or Max Fried in the high minors for us. If you trade from the top/middle of the SR, you rob Peter to pay Paul. If you make that trade you’ve got some hitting or prospects, but the rotation is very weak at the back end and just one or two injuries and you’re running mediocre AAA and AA guys out there. And not only that, the drop off from a guy like Nola to his replacement would likely be immense.

       Second, if this team wants to compete for a championship, it needs that pitching as this is not a true top tier offense (it’s decent and could be good, but it’s not the 2008 team). That’s their key to taking a short series.

       I mean I guess you could trade Gibson but who starts after that in his place? You got Gibson to shore up the back end because slots 4 and 5 in the rotation were almost automatic losses without him there. I don’t see competent help in sight, but I guess DD could trade for that or sign that. Still, Gibson is more valuable than you might think.

14. Always interesting to think of salary dump trades. Will Myers and Jagger Haynes for Mickey Mo, Adonis Medina and Cristopher Sanchez. Padres may be looking to dump salary to get under the luxury tax and they need SP depth.

15. In light of the fact that the Phillies are apparently going for it while their core players enjoy their prime years, and in light of DD’s reputation, should we dismiss the notion that someone like Bryan Reynolds is off the table? Yes, the prospect capital would be significant. But Reynolds is a keeper to anchor the OF for years to come, and a top of the lineup bat.

16. A few thoughts: Story makes sense as a top fielder at SS and someone who can move to 3rd if needed. (Bohm struggles/Didi rebounds/Stott pushes for a promotion) Semien makes more sense, he also plays into a future replacement for Segura in the future. Stott seems to be headed for a promotion to SS with 3rd & 2nd as fall back options. Both are big bats.

    I figure they will go into the season with an extra player who has position flexibility so they can rotate the DH and off days.

    I see a lot here about Galvis and he is a good player but looking at defensive marks they are only showing him to be about average now. It should be noted Didi was a good fielder and 2021 may have been a fluke, there is a chance he turns it around.

    The starting pitching could use another arm, maybe even one of the top available with out a qualifying offer attached. Having 6 starting pitchers plus Falter and Crouse would be a good thing. A veteran or two for depth to be stashed at AAA will help.

    I expect at least 3 quality relievers add to replace Neris, Kennedy, and Bradley.

17. MLB trade rumors did their projections. the 3 contributors each picking a spot for the various FAs. Just some more opinions, but I found it really interesting that 2 of the writers picked us for Correa at 10/$320, which I believe is a definite no, and Tim Dierkes has us with Story at 6/$126, which I would actually be ok with, but I think is pretty low. All 3 writers have Seager to the Yankees at 10/$305. He also has us with Suzuki at 5/$55M, but no explanation why we would all of a sudden get a Japanese player, and also has us with Neris at 2/$15M and Melancon at 2/$14M. All in all some really random picks, and I would have liked some rationale for why a player was picked to a particular team, but I enjoy any off season predictions.

    1. It would be a stunning development if the Phillies were able to grab Suzuki. Not sure why those writers would think that since the Phillies have had no history going after posted Japanese players.

       1. Maybe Uncle Charley is pushing for it! 🙂

    2. I too think it is unlikely Correra signs with the Phillies, but less discuss how it might happen.
       Phillies sign
       OF Big bat for 18m/AAV – Castellanos, Schwarber, Conforto
       RP- Neris – 7 mil
       Closer – Melancon 7 mil (not my favorite)
       Trade for salary relief:
       Segura 14.8 mil
       DD – 7.5 mil – because you eat half of 15.25 mil owed

       Sign Correra for 32 mil a year.
       Gets you back to 206 mil.
       I don’t see it happening do to the moving parts, but I’d rather see the Phillies sign
       Story/Bryant & another OF (maybe Suziki) for a better bang for the money, and go over the LTT for a more rounded team.

18. I don’t believe Stott will start the season in the majors. I don’t believe the Phils will spend over the tax penalty amount. I don’t believe Moniak has any chance at starting the season in Philly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Taylor accept the 1 yr $18M QO. He is a solid player, not close to being a star and not worth losing a 2nd or 3rd rd pic over in addition to the cost. I think trading Didi will be very difficult and I expect him to bounce back next year. I like the idea of Knebel as the closer very much. I would resign Neris and Bradley too. There are #5 SPs out there and we should sign one to a minor league deal. Bring back Galvis and Miller. Sign Pedersen to platoon in LF with Vierling. Trade Rojas, OHoppe and Miller for Reynolds or K Marte to play CF. Retain Quinn. That’s it, that’s the team that we can afford. Not as sexy but very realistic.

19. Nice write up on Crouse

    MLU: Can Crouse Crack Phillies ’22 Rotation?
    by @nathangraham3 https://t.co/kTUH5Mo6fR pic.twitter.com/f9OK7fyqWp

    — Baseball Prospectus (@baseballpro) November 8, 2021

    1. The questions about Crouse in the past were whether his delivery will allow him to maintain his command well enough to stick as a starting pitcher. And he has polarized prognosticators, with some seeing impact starting pitcher potential, while others believe his delivery makes him suited for a relief role. Let’s hope he is a starter fro awhile.
       Its been alittle over two years …Oct 2019…. since his elbow surgery for bone spurs, and he has continued to progress.
       I hope Dave D struck a gold nugget in this trade.

       1. I like Crouse. I don’t see him as a relief arm at all – he just doesn’t throw hard enough. Also he has a number of pitches that move, so he’s better suited to the rotation.

          Based on what I saw this year, Crouse looks like a 3/4, which sounds unimpressive, but I mean it as a compliment – a guy who is a solid pitcher with an ERA in the 3.8-4.2 range. Basically, I view him as having the upside of a Zach Eflin, which is quite good. However, if he’s going to become more than that, he either needs to gain velocity (sometimes happens for no particular reason), develop an out pitch or really improve his command of several pitches. I think he would benefit from at least a half year in AAA, perhaps more.

          1. I think he’s more of a 4/5 but we’ll see what happens. His control is spotty, likely because of his delivery. At the minimum, the Phillies won’t have to bottom feed for pitching in FA.

          2. I think he can gain velo the further he is away from his bone spur surgery…..’20 was an off year with all the issues….so ’21 was his first real full length season.
             How much velo he can garner upwards, remains to be seen..his sinker registered 93…so if he can get that up 2 or 3 more ticks it would be to his benefit

             https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/hans-crouse-668968?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

    2. I watched his appearances with The Phillies and concluded he has exactly the same problem as Howard: he can’t repeat his delivery. Every single pitch his body is doing something completely different, which is why his pitch count soars quickly. Not a starter, unless someone can fix that.

       1. Fair point but Howard has a much more severe problem – he physically cannot maintain his velocity for more than 2 innings or so. It was a miracle DD was able to pull of that trade. If I were shopping as a GM I would have steered clear of Howard. Not his failed but he’s damaged goods in my opinion. Much more likely to be the next Ethan Martin than the next Justin Verlander.

          1. Ethan Martin, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan pettibone eta l….shoulder injuries did their craeers in.

20. O’Hoppe with his 2nd HR today…..BA up to .333 now.

    1. This is a good problem to have. If O’Hoppe continues at this rate, he won’t be long for the minors (1-2 years max). I haven’t heard any indications that he can’t stick at catcher. JT has 4 years left on his deal. It’s obviously not ideal that the Philies move JT off catcher in the future, but it’ll likely be done when O’Hoppe is ready. This means moving JT to 1B/DH and pretty much ensures that Hoskins won’t be getting a second contract with the Phillies.

       1. O’Hoppe is certainly progressing fast…maybe faster than they anticipated.
          A yuo say….maybe one more year minimum between starting at Reading and then the bulk at LHV. But 2023 could be interesting.

       2. you don’t stick JT at first or DH – it’s a big waste of money. His bat doesn’t profile well there. If you conclude that O’Hoppe will be a first division regular then you trade JT at some point. You don’t want another Joe Mayer situation on your hands. Fortunately, O’Hoppe probably has at least one more year in the minors but good God, if they think he’s a future star they need to hold onto him for dear life.

          1. You can trade JT, but it’s likely that the Phillies will have to eat a decent chunk of his remaining money, especially if he declines even a little bit.

             1. People, I think, are not quite understanding this.

                You don’t want to pay $23 million a year for a part-time catcher, first baseman or DH with Realmuto’s hitting profile. He’s not a good enough hitter to justify that salary – not even close. If he were on the market as a first baseman or DH, he would be worth less than $10 million a year.

                If you get to a point where you are convinced that O’Hoppe could be a first division regular, the correct move would be to trade Realmuto so you free up salary to dedicate to other needs – not shift him to a position where he would be relative liability and dramatically overpaid. As to whether you would need to eat salary, it really depends on how he does over the next year or so. But these are the dangers we discussed with giving a big contract to a 30 year-old catcher – history is very unkind to catchers after their very early 30s.

                The good news is that O’Hoppe is probably going to spend at least another full year in the minors – this isn’t something where you need to make an immediate decision. They can afford to let this situation play out.

       3. If the DH comes to the NL, it’s a non-issue. O’Hoppe won’t be taking the lion’s share of the catching tandem in his first year unless JT gets hurt. After that year, they can just progressively increase his time behind the plate and give JT a rest with DH days (or more likely 1B days so Hoskins can DH).

          Without a DH it’s problematic because then you can’t have both Hoskins and JT in the lineup. So in that scenario, I could foresee the Phils moving on from one or the other. But with it, it’s kind of ideal. We wouldn’t have to find a new 1B/DH in free agency.

          And this is all assuming O’Hoppe continues to successfully develop at this rapid pace which is, well, far from certain.

21. I was going to wait until we get closer to the rule 5 draft to mention this kid … but … with the possibility of a lockout looming, there may be no rule 5 in December. So why not just try to swing a deal for Steven Kwan right now if you’re Dombrowski/Fuld. The Indians/Guardians are in an absolute roster crunch. They have more good prospects than they have 40-man spots for. Kwan is a nice little player who can’t even find a spot on Cleveland’s top 30 prospects list. For me, he would be my top target in the rule 5 (whenever it actually happens … December or February or March or whenever they finally hammer out a new CBA).
    Kwan was a leader for the 2018 College World Series champion Oregon State Beavers (although he was far from the biggest name on that club). He profiles as exactly the player the Phillies are looking for this winter. Kwan is a smaller CFer (just 5’9″/175) who is an ideal leadoff hitter. He has more BB’s than K’s as both a college player and as a MiLB player. The 24 YO LHB owns a career .380 OBP in Cleveland’s system. Kwan is also a good defensive CFer. In almost any other organization, Kwan is probably a top 15 prospect, and is added to the 40-man. But … like I said … the Guardians are loaded with prospects (a bunch who need to be added to their 40-man). I’d call Chris Antonetti, and try to swing a deal for Kwan before the rule 5 draft. Maybe he becomes the Phillies’ next Shane Victorino.

    Season Recap ‼️@skwanzaa gives insight on some of the cues that have helped him in his career to this point. What are some mental cues to reset that help you in sport or life?

    Watch his full feature on YouTube or @nick_adgar IGtv (Link in Bio)

    📈📈📈#consistent pic.twitter.com/76lu4x7bz2

    — CONSISTENT (@Real_Consistent) April 11, 2021

    1. Hinkie…he looks like a real nice player…ideal lead-off hitter…that makes contact.

       Here is what Eric Longerhagen wrote about him earlier this year…jan 2021
       Ranked him 49th in their org.:
       Kwan was one of the older players invited to instructs. He had the third-lowest swinging strike rate among qualified minor league hitters in 2019. He’s not especially toolsy (other than the contact skills) and relies entirely on instincts in center field, where he’s actually pretty good. He doesn’t have the power to play every day, but he might find a niche bench role. (Fall Instructional League)

       Hit…35/60
       Raw Power…30/30
       Game Power 30/30
       .Run.45/45
       Fielding…50/55
       Throw…50
       …

       1. Yeah, Romus. He’s been flying way under the radar in the Guardians org.

    2. Sounds very much like a future coach/mgr, so articulate and comfortable in his own skin. I’m never that relaxed when I get my hair cut. But I guess it’s a great environment to think out loud. Could he be Odubel Herrera 2.0 without the brain farts?

    3. Hinkie, the Indians/Guardians are my AL team (I grew up there) and am surprised, given their well-known roster crunch, that you haven’t previously mentioned them as a potential trade partner. I’ve seen Kwan written up elsewhere, and would do this.

    4. i appoint you our Ambassador of Kwan.

22. Thanks, Hinkie. Now don’t take this to the Smets when they offer you the GM job !!!

    1. RU … I turned down their request for an interview over the weekend. LOL.

       1. Good call, now other teams know you’re only interested in serious offers with good clubs.

23. Cornelius Randolph has elected to become a FA.

    1. Llovera too.

24. The following 15 minor leaguers elected free agency – RHP Aneurys Zabala, INF Arquimedes Gamboa, 1B Brock Stassi, OF Charlie Tilson, RHP David Paulino, C Edgar Cabral, OF Grenny Cumana, OF Cornelius Randolph, RHP Mauricio Llovera, LHP Nick Fanti, C Rodolfo Duran, INF T.J. Rivera, RHP Taylor Guerrieri, C Tyler Heineman, INF CJ Chatham.

    1. This will open a lot of space in Lehigh Valley for the Phillies to protect eligible minor leaguers from the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft.

       1. I liked Zabala. Duran kind of got lost in the shuffle of a deep catching group.

          1. I thought Nick Fanti had a shot.

             1. Injuries hurt Nick Fanti considerably in his career….especially his back ailments.
                Lost almost three full years.

25. Phillies president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski heads to MLB's GM meetings this week with a number of big holes to fill.

    Would he consider trading Aaron Nola to help fill some of them?

    Story from @JSalisburyNBCS https://t.co/arbNwrQbHS

    — NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) November 8, 2021

    .

    “Dealing someone from the big-league roster could make sense if it brings back the right package.”
    I’ll say it again … some of you may be shocked at the value Aaron Nola carries as a possible trade chip. If DD can flip him for pieces to fill multiple needs, there’s a good chance he does it.

    1. I think the Cardinals could be in play for Nola. I’ve posted the package I think he could fetch multiple times.

    2. I know it’s only 5:30 a.m. but I have to ask whether anyone would trade Aaron Nola to join his brother, catcher Austin, in San Diego in exchange for their #1 prospect CJ Abrams, who is a SS but is expected to shift to either 2b or CF since Tatis is the resident. This move would significantly jump the Phillies ranking among farm systems.

       1. Better get a pitcher back in return also …..like a Gore.
          Nola is a proven top of the rotation MLB starter……..Abrams and Gore are just prospects.

          1. That’s fine, Romus…I guess I’m posing Nola and Abrams as centerpieces which could construct an expanded trade. Perhaps Will Myers would also factor in. I didn’t have my coffee yet.

             1. Padres have been tryng to move Myers and Hosmer for the last 2/3 years because of their contracts.
                Taking Myers off their hands , and his $43M over the next two years, probably gets Abrams and Gore (or Gasser) for sure.

                1. Then let’s do it. Myers can play LF. We can still sign Schwarber as DH. Abrams’ ETA is also 2022. Imagine having him and Stott making their debut next season!

                2. Will Myers, CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore to Phillies for Aaron Nola. There you have it…

    3. I mean Duh LOL

       It’s one thing to say it as I have for over a year it’s another to absolutely nail the trade

       The Rays went for it with Snell but they were already a pretty good ball club with some depth at pitcher. Their return was Luis Patino as the center piece as he was MLB ready.

       Meija a once touted catching prospect and then a stud in Wilcox who might be ready this season or next. Blake Hunt was a throw in it appears.

26. One of the by-products of a lockout is that team facilities will not be available to members of the MLBPA (the guys on the 40-man roster). Rehabs are interrupted. So, some of the guys who rehab in Philadelphia or Clearwater would be locked out from not only the facilities, but also the coaches, trainers, and medical staff overseeing their rehabs. Additionally, players like Bohm who spend some time in Clearwater during the offseason wouldn’t be able to use the Complex facilities.

27. Trading Nola, IMO, needs to bring back at least 2 Major League starting players that improve the team rather than the prospect pool. But, it also leaves a big hole in the SR. Part of any hopes to contend next season is the resurgence of Nola. Without that, where does a #2 SP come from? I think it’s easier to fill two position spots than acquire a top level SP.

28. You are correct Romus. I think big P had a great chance to be successful. Too bad about the injury. it seems that injuries to the shoulder are worse for pitchers to come back from than the Ulnar.
    gm

    1. Yep….drafted in a high round out of HS….he looked to be a part of the staff for many years. It happens to the best of them….too often it seems.

29. Just to expand on my earlier thought. Signing an Andrelton Simmons and Starling Marte improves us quite a bit, doesn’t break the bank, and leaves Nola in the SR. No QO costing us a draft pick, and we still have all of our trade ammunition for DD. A Closer, BP help, and a plan for LF would still be needed. I am trying to plan for us not being in the top SS market, an assumption I think is reasonable.

    1. Matt, I agree that SS will not be filled by a top FA with a QO attached. I would have loved to get Semien as I’ve posted numerous times, but the smart money is in suring up the defense up the middle, and even at 3b (I still think Oakland is a potential trade partner with Chapman and possibly Manaea as solid additions). Marte without the QO becomes more attractive, but also more expensive because of that since more teams will be in on him. The other big free agent bat would be Schwarber since he too comes without the QO….a 2022 lineup could look like this…
       C JT Realmuto
       1b Rhys Hoskins
       2b Jean Segura
       ss Bryson Stott
       3b Matt Chapman
       lf ????????
       cf Starling Marte
       rf Bryce Harper
       dh Kyle Schwarber
       ….with the DH likely in NL play, DD would need to find a LF if Schwarber is assigned mostly as DH. Or a 1b if Hoskins is. The variables here open up a myriad of possibilities, including Stott’s ETA.

30. he was (5th i think). And a Boras client. i have hopes for Ben Brown to get there, like Jonathon, and hang around longer.
    gm

    1. Yeah…Big Ben needs to get going this year….already 22 years old and probably should try to get thru two levels in 2022…..CLW and Jersey Shore, hopefully..
       Then he can enter into Reading in his age23 season.

31. I still feel its hard to tell which way the team will go. I think its either all in, or a mix. Sign FA, trade prospects for better players, and then trade everyday players to replenish some of the farm. Trading Nola in an of itself seems counterintuitive, but when looked at from the view of the entire offseason, it could makes sense. Might need the trade deadline as well to get it into better focus, but this team has many holes, and there are a few ways to fill them. I do agree, finding a SP #2 is harder than just signing 2 OF FA/Sign 1 OF & trade for 1. Will see, but I do believe Nola brings back a nice haul, it just depends on what all the other moves are. The knock I will give on Nola, who I am a big fan of, Is that he hasn’t really proven to be effective in starts on short rest. Thats an issue in the playoffs, and it might mitigate his value to the Phillies if the FO feels that way. Might be a good idea to cash out if this is indeed the case.

    1. Also, for those that want to trade Nola, keep in mind, the best player I’ve seen come back in a trade for one of our top SP, is Vicente Padilla. Let that sink in. I get it, DD is a different animal, but if he does decide to trade Nola, let’s hope they “win” the trade for once.

       1. I choose to look at the Snell deal the Rays made. The Rays of course scout extraordinary well. They returned Patino and Wilcox in that deal plus others but

          Patino came in and made 15 starts for them at age 21 he was decent going 5-3 with a 4.31 ERA and 8.6K/9. And wait til you see what this kid Wilcox can do.

          What I like about the Rays way and the A’s way to some extent is that they aren’t beholden to these so called windows or pressures to win now. Thus they make moves that both improve their MLB club on the aggregate for now and the future.

          Now what I don’t like about that is they seem to also be in a perpetual state of not being able to get over the hump. At some point its not enough to be really good if you don’t close the deal.

    2. Tac3, perhaps they regard Ranger as a #2 in waiting. A trade for a guy like Manaea from Oakland wouldn’t replace Nola but it still brings an established major league SP who’s not deemed merely a back of the rotation arm. He’s a MOR on a good team.

       1. ….and MLBTR is reporting that Oakland plans to reduce payroll. Among arb eligible players mentioned with increasing salary projections are Chapman, Olsen and Manaea. The latter would be a one year rental, but the Phillies may have another lefty rising up the pipeline by 2023 in Erik Miller.

          1. Adding Chapman & Manaea is not a bad plan. DD needs to be a vulture and circle them for some player prospects. Trading Nola is tough to think about, but the FO needs to win that trade if so. I’d like it to be separate from the A’s. Nola probably makes to much for the Beane counter anyways. I will say, i think its not smart to count on Ranger as a #2. The kid needs time to grow & develop at the mlb level before being counted on as a #2. He had a great callup, but ;ets let it simmer for an entire year to get a more accurate read.

             1. No Nola to Oakland. I proposed trading him to San Diego earlier (above). An Oakland deal would require young talent…perhaps Bohm, Marchan and a pitcher, say Morales?

                1. I’d be all over that, I’d imagine it’s have to include more, like … at least Crouse, probably painter or Abel. Chapman is a GG & an elite bat. He’s damn good, and would get Schmidty excited

32. Ken Rosenthal posits that e may be banking on a bounce back season from Didi. I believe that if there are Plans A, B and C, that would ne plan Z. I think the team wants to, and will, move on from him, and if they deem Stott ready or close to, they start the season with Freddy at SS. What I have heard from both sides since the end of the season indicate to me that he will not be back. Even if all we save is $5M, that is a bit more money to spend, and I strongly feel we have a new starting SS for the Opener.

    1. matt13….Didi spoke unflattery about the medical staff……so doubt he returns.

       1. Yeah, Romus. There’s no coming back from Didi’s comments. Dombrowski will probably throw Didi into a Nola deal (if one happens).
          BTW … I do think Didi has a pretty nice bounce back season with the bat in 2022. However, the glove is only going to keep regressing.

          1. Yeah Hinkie…as he ages the glove will regress.
             As for his bat….he did seem to start to ‘go the other way’ on iccasion, near the end of the year…maybe his approach will change.

33. Heaney $8mil from dodgers. Seems like a lot?

    Also, in last years I’d lack patience in offseason. Phillies usually move quickly and quietly so I’ll just sit back and enjoy the ride.

    I just hope there’s no or a very limited work stoppage that puts a wrinkle in offseason

    1. Troll, might not be a bad plan. Overpay a little guy to get all the players to come big game contract hunting in LA. They got money to burn, and the low budget braves just beat them.

    2. I think Heaney’s contract mirrors the $8 mill contract Toronto gave Robby Ray who was pretty much of a walk machine in 2020. Heaney went crazy giving up HR in 2021 so he is sort of a reclamation project. Dodgers think they can fix him I guess.

34. The hardest thing to find, and the most expensive, is starting pitching. If the Phils hope to contend in 2022, and I believe they do, they won’t be trying Nola. They certainly can’t afford to replace him with anyone better in 2022. A young arm could be better in a few years but not in 2022. He won’t be traded.
    I just can’t see the Phils eating $9.5M to trade away Didi and at $14.5M, that’s how much they’d have to eat. If they think Stott might be ready mid year, they’ll bring back Freddie and keep Didi and focus elsewhere.

    1. For all we know, Jim Salisbury may be ‘greasing’ the Phillie faithful folk to accept a Nola exodus from the city by his article on a move..

       1. He could or maybe he’s struggling to find something to write and he needs to submit something every day. I could be wrong obviously but I’d be very surprised to see the team go backwards

          1. Murray, I don’t see it happening either. Certainly, if they traded him, they would be looking to find someone at least as good as Nola for next year – either through a FA contract or a trade. There is no way they go into next year with Ranger Suarez as the de facto number 2 in the rotation. It’s not happening and if they want to make the playoffs, it really can’t happen.

          2. All Dave D needs to say to Jim is two statements…and Jim can take it from there with a little deductive reasoning..

             1.”For this team to get better, moves will need to be made”….duh, Capt Obvious can see that when Dave D is in the picture.

             2. “One thing every GM treasusres and looks for is pitching”…that narrows it down to only three pitchers of any substantial value on the Phillies….Wheeler, Nola and Suarez.

             IMO, Nola is the odd man out among the three.

             1. And even Jim advises not to listen to the national scribes, but the local beat guys. Trading Nola is by no means even a probability…but to dismiss the idea altogether is close minded. There’s much we have to watch with Dombrowski at the helm. Aggressive doesn’t mean fool hardy. A rotation of Wheeler/Suarez/Eflin/Gibson/Manaea come midseason with Falter and Crouse in the wings is nothing to sneeze at.

                1. And then there are the free agent pitchers, Jon Gray, Justin Verlander, etc…all he needs is to sign one to further lenghten the rotation.

    2. One thing I’m pretty sure of is that Klentak wouldn’t trade Nola. It’s outside the box, unconventional, and a tad risky. Nothing in return would replace Nola’s talent, but what would come back in return would strengthen and deepen a roster with little to no depth.

       1. …what I mean is that Dombrowski won’t trade Nola unless other transactions would bolster the roster despite his absence. A Nola trade wouldn’t stand alone.

          1. Nola turns 29 next season….basically two controlled years left….all his metrics are favorable even in a down season like last season…ERA being the exception, though with poor defenders behind him, official errors do not need to be committed for an ERA to get inflated., and that is reflected by almost a run lower FIP of 3.4 vs the ERA of 4.6.
             it is risky as you say, but to have any degree of success, needs to be done in conjunction with other moves that the GM has to make..

             1. Agreed. His metrics are amazing. I think he was also the victim of a slow hook a few times this year. If he had been taken out certain games when he was showing fatigue there would have been fewer implosions. But I’m expecting a very big bounce-back year next year.

          2. Is there a person on this board that would have traded Snell after coming within 1 game of a WS title especially when he was under contract for 2 more years at a paltry $29.7 million….

             You guys afraid to trade Nola disappoint me and I say that lovingly to you as my brothers in Phillies fandom

             You can’t win until you’re not afraid to lose…

             1. Agree, DMAR….it’s much harder to get rich when you hold on to every nickel. I loathe the idea of trading young controllable talent but sometimes “going for it” takes different forms, and not inside the proverbial box.

             2. DMAR………fortune favours the bold,

35. Would anyone entertain a DiDi for Eugenio Suarez deal? Hope that Suarez bounces back. Could you also get a mid-level prospect back for the extra cash that you are taking on. He’s got 3 years left at $11 mill a year. You’d save about $3.5 million the first year. Hope for a big bounceback. I would entertain it depending on what other moves are made.

    1. I like this idea Forrest….

36. Forrest – I like your thinking here but Suarez has 3 and $36M left and he batted .202 and.198 the past two seasons. The 2nd best glove at 3B in the NL but will he ever hit again?

    1. Interesting, two glove guys maybe on the market for trade, that have caution flags at the plate, as fas as BA/OBP….but power personified…Suarez and A’s Chapman.

    2. On Eugenio Suarez – I believe he has damaged his shoulder in a significant way and had an awful time catching up to high heat. This injury – according to a game I watched – the announcers (Cinci) were not optimistic that it could be repaired. Just sayin’…

37. These are trade packages I would be interested in exploring with plausible trade partners…I think we would match up pretty well…

    TAMPA BAY
    Kevin Kiermeier cf
    Mike Zunino c (club option was picked up; TB would have to kick us some cash to cover part of his $10M)
    JJ Goss rhp or Cole Wilcox rhp

    CINCINNATI
    Sonny Gray rhp
    Jesse Winker lf
    Andrew Abbott lhp

    *SAN DIEGO (specifically for Aaron Nola)
    CJ Abrams middle IF/CF
    Mackenzie Gore lhp
    Will Myers lf
    (*This trade would necessitate the CINCINNATI and the OAKLAND trades. Acquiring both Myers (righty bat) and Winker (lefty bat) would afford depth in the OF and DH. Neither Manaea nor Gray can replace Nola, per se, but they would certainly deepen the starting rotation.)

    OAKLAND
    Matt Chapman 3b
    Sean Manaea lhp

38. I just don’t see a Nola trade, mostly because I don’t see how we replace him. And not the Nola of last year, but the Nola I believe rebounds this year. Eflin is coming off injury, Gibson is a better #5 than what we’ve had before, Ranger had a great year, but is not, IMO yet a #2, and we have no one ready from the Farm, especially to be a #2 on a contending team. I understand the rationale, but I have to go back to what I believe the goal is for this season, and that is to make the Playoffs. If this was a 2-3 year effort to get there, then a Nola trade is much more feasible. But, to contend next year, we need Nola to bounce back, and Ranger to be a similar SP to what he was this season. Knowing full well, that nobody replicates this season’s ERA. Sure, I can see trying to get Manea from Oakland, but he is a depth SR Pitcher, not a replacement for Nola, or even as a #3. And as far as Didi goes, if we save even $5M to trade him, why wouldn’t we? What value is keeping him at $15M? I believe we can move him, and I am fully prepared to eat $10M to do so. We need a new SS, even if we only add Defense at the position. This is assuming Stott does not win the SS job out of ST. And if he does, I want Didi here even less.

39. Dave Dombrowski has had enough of those nervous ninth inningshttps://t.co/ayMb630fiO

    — Jim Salisbury (@JSalisburyNBCS) November 10, 2021

    .

    Dombrowski from the story: “We have to have somebody to play left field,” he said. “We have to have somebody to play center field. Those are complete necessities. We need somebody to close a game for us. Those are probably our biggest areas.”

    … and: Dombrowski said he has received a budget from managing partner John Middleton. He would not divulge the number, but said, “I don’t find it restrictive.”

    1. …DD said, “I wouldn’t discount anything.”
       – even trading from the 26 man roster, according to Salisbury, who also mentioned that Milwaukee may deal Josh Hader.

    2. …and signing a FA with a QO? Dombrowski said he’d prefer not to give up draft picks, although it’s not a deal breaker.

40. He also said after pondering fir a moment, “ If I had to choose one thing, I’d say I would like someone to close for us, and count on it.” He is planning to. E aggressive despite the CBA uncertainty. I look forward to his first move. There will be many.

    1. LF: Michael Conforto (after Dec 1 because there’s a chance the new CBA features a lesser penalty for signing a FA tagged w/a QO).
       CF: JBJ (via trade … won’t cost top prospect[s]).
       CLOSER: Corey Knebel (although, this one could go in many directions).

       Phillies 2022 LU

       2B Jean Segura
       RF Bryce Harper
       DH Rhys Hoskins
       LF Michael Conforto
       C JT Realmuto
       1B Brad Miller/Garrett Cooper
       3B Alec Bohm
       SS Bryson Stott
       CF JBJ

       The Phillies would feature an All-Boras OF, and 4 of the starting 9 would be Boras clients (Stott).

       1. I know JBJ is a great glove, but his bat has frequently been a black hole during his career. He has spurts of good hitting, then he reverts. Pass.

          1. I’m not a JBJ guy myself, but if perhaps he’s included with Josh Hader in a deal to unload some salary and lessen the return we incur, then I would have to think about it.

    2. The anticipation for his first of many moves i suspect, is heightening.
       Perhaps it begins on Nov 10th….and also a Happy 246th to the many heroes, present and gone, with the blood stripe..OORAH.

41. Realistic, Hinkie, and not overly expensive. Are you convinced that Stott is the opening Day SS, and are you convinced he is good enough defensively? I am convinced that Bohm is the OD 3B, but not yet convinced he will play good enough defense. Hoping, however, because it would be really helpful to have 2 young guys on the IF’s left side.

    1. Matt, I won’t speak for Hinkie but yes, I do believe that Stott will be our opening day SS, and NO I don’t see him staying there long term.

       Nor do I see DD having both Bohm and Stott together on the left side of the infield.

       I see Dombrowski acquiring a closer (trade or FA – I like Knebel even though he’s not an established closer, meanwhile allowing Seranthony time to regain form) and signing a FA big bat OF (Schwarber), trading for Chapman and acquiring a CF via either trade (Kiermaier?) or free agency (Taylor?).

       1. Gotcha, mark. So, you think Bohm is gone in the Chapman deal, but Stott stays and becomes the 2B? If that is later rather than sooner, then we miss out on the FA SS group. And, we have a big hole at SS. I don’t know what they are really thinking, but, just as a guess, I think Bohm and Stott start OD next to each other. I don’t know if that works or not, I just get the sense that the team hopes/needs young players making it, if for no other reason than it helps the Payroll. Trading for Chapman means a LTC at a lot of $, and leaves Rhys as the only every day player that is home grown. I think Bohm and Stott get long leashes to fail. And, who knows?, we may, in fact, get lucky, and they both play well and stay at their spots. We are due for some good fortune.

          1. matt13…of Stott…..just went under .300 yesterday…now sits at .299 with 8 games left in he AFL..overall he has been superb in Arizona.
             Oddly…..with all his very good hitting metrics..has not hit a HR…whereas the younger O”Hoppe has gone downtown twice.

          2. If Bohm sticks anywhere, I have doubts it will be 3b, anyhow.

42. I like DD, he doesn’t speak “womanese” like previous Phillies GMs. He is to the point. I see him signing a FA OF bat, 3 bullpen arms, and trading for an OF as his ideal plan. If he has to, he would sign 2 OF bats and a few bullpen arms. If the SS market swings in their favor, i believe they would add one to go over the LTT. I see him giving *Bohm & Stott the chance, reassessing at the deadline. If needed, he would then pull the trigger on a trade for a 3B or SS. I really do think he will wrestle with the Idea of trading for Chapman. Makes too much sense. Give up a few prospects for a GG 3B with an elite level bat. That’s worth doing. If the deal can happen this off-season, Bohm is gone imho. That’s the asterisk on giving Bohm the starting job, with galvis as a LIDR. It goes against the “we can’t always sign FA” mindset due to the bloated salary, but that’s a go for it move. They’ll have to sign Chapman to an outrageous contract but there is time. He likely takes Seguras & didi’s money on future payrolls.

43. Nerdy stat way to look at improving the offense.
    Phillies scored 734 runs out of 2192 TB from the players. 2 of the players we’ve discussed going after, could boost the teams 4.53 runs per game average. Bryan Reynolds in a trade, and signing Siemen for SS. Reynolds would be a significant boost. siemen over Didi is too, i don’t feel like doing the math since didi only played 100 games. League average for TB in 2021 was 2217. The top 8 teams in TB, made the playoffs or very close (Houston, TB, TOR, LAD,BOS,SF, CWS,ATL). If DD could trade for Reynolds, and sign siemen, that’s 3 of the top ten in TB with Harper. Not a bad way to fix the offense. Phillies scored the league average for Runs, at 734. They converting on 33.4% of getting those runs in. Increase the TB, should push the Phillies offense up. I will say, they look out of range of catching the top tier offenses, so they better have the pitching to silence those bats. They really need to beef up the bullpen, and keep improving the SR.

44. This may double post, but thought it was interesting. Top offenses have the leagues best Runs and TB totals. The top 8 teams in TB, made the playoffs or were very close. (You,TB,TOR,LAD,BOS,SF,CWS,ATL) 2 of the players we’ve discussed adding are Bryan Reynolds and Siemens for SS. If added, that would give the Phillies 3 of the top 10 in total bases for players in the mlb. The Phillies converted on 33.4% on men on base, so increasing TB should lead to more runs, and theoretically more wins. The Phillies scored the league average for runs at 734. Here is my request
    Trade for Reynolds – pay the price
    Trade for Chapman
    Sign Siemen – lose the draft pick
    Sign 2 closers

    Adding those players increases the teams TB, while improving their defense, so it should move the needle on the run differential. A great way to win games. Final answer for the off-season. I will say that the Phillies are far off the top 5 offensive teams. Getting there is a few seasons off. So improve the offense, and then make sure you have the SR & bullpen to silence the top offenses, becaus you’ll be seeing them in the playoffs. For reference, HOU had 34.7% conversion rate, for a 5.3 runs per game average over Phillies 4.53 runs per game.

45. Trade for Bryan Reynolds – CF (Abel or painter is available for him)
    Sign Correra – SS – open the vault DD
    Stott to 2B, Bohm at 3B.
    Sign Bryant for LF. Make Bryce happy
    Resign Galvis (Good defensily not great anymore)
    Trade away Segura, Didi to make room for Correra
    Sign Knebel
    Resign Neris (can’t believe I’m saying that)

    Not bad. I’m hoping for Reynolds or a Matt Chapman trade. I’d be very happy to have either in a Phillies uniform. Both would be nuts! Not expecting that, as the farm would have no animals left. Somethings tells me they could do it for a 2 year window. They are cheap salary wise and they produce. I’d also be excited for Siemen at SS, in relation to my TB post earlier

    1. Getting Reynolds in a trade would be a ballsy move. I can’t see them getting both him and Chapman in a separate trade. But what about a 3-way deal with Pittsburgh and Oakland? Now that would cement Dombrowski as an all out, go for broke, get it done mover and shaker. Yes, it would mean sayonara to Bohm, Abel, Rojas, and several other top 10 prospects. But those two fixtures (relatively inexpensive at the moment, but surely to get paid within the next couple years) would solidify this defense and stabilize the lineup even before DD adds another big free agent bat and closer.

46. May have been mentioned but DD’s comments about getting a budget from Johnny Cigars as being non restrictive. Leads me to believe he will go over.

    I will not be shocked if we signed a top bat, mid rotation arm, and a bonefide closer.

    I predict Bryant and Schwarber, Starte, and Jansen. Unsure of the rotation arm as that may be through a trade.

    with Bryant and Schwarbs, you get some versatility. Bryant can play LF and 3B. Schwarbs, LF and DH.

    DiDi gets traded to clear up some space.

    thoughts?

    1. Yeah, here are my thoughts.

       1. I think DD got authority to spend up the LT limit, whatever that happens to be. Why? Because that’s what they’ve done every year – history means something. He was probably told to come back and discuss if he wants to exceed the ceiling. For the right player they might exceed the ceiling but I’d bet a lot that it won’t happen before the season begins. Maybe at the deadline if they’re super competitive.

       2. The team won’t sign Bryant and Schwarber. Bryant (who apparently is now super wealthy – like $400 million wealthy – due to an investment in Under Armour), will want something like $20 million per year and he’s not worth it. Schwarber will be cheaper, will probably settle for 3-4 years and is worth it. I think/hope the Phillies sign him.

       3. DD said his number one priority is a closer. I agree that Knebel seems like the best bet there. Don’t be surprised if Diekman comes back too. I think that, for a reasonable price, Hector will also be re-signed as he’s fine/good so long as he’s not asked to close.

       4. Someone will be acquired to play CF – I have no idea who and how that will happen.

47. If an upgrade is in order for SS, and perhaps counting on Stott is a tad risky for a team trying to contend, would anyone consider trading Segura to the White Sox for Kimbrel? Money is roughly similar, and the Chisox need a 2b. Then Stott can more readily slide to 2b with a stud SS acquisition.

48. My opening day LU

    Ketel Marte CF-Switch hitting dynamic player and yeah give up a little defense but I think the offensive upside is worth it. I think I can get him with some good prospects but not give up either Abel or Painter.

    Segura 2B-two guys once traded for one another hitting 1-2
    BH RF

    Hoskins 1B/DH

    JT C/DH

    Taylor-Gladly give up a 2nd round pick for a season to add his defensive flexibility. Since he can play anywhere on the diamond (just about) Girardi can flex the DH almost nightly

    Stott-SS

    Bohm 3B/DH-Simply way too soon for me to give up on this kid and his low cost for years to come nd adding Taylor allows me to hedge my bet on his defense.

    Eddie Rosario LF-Loved him last year will love him next year on a strong short term deal. Pair him with Vierling

    My rotation is Wheeler Nola Suarez Gibson and whomever I’ll add any of the better closers available and piece together a BP

    Marchan will be my back-up catcher unless I need to use him to get Marte. I imagine though I may need to use O’Hoppe.

    From a salary perspective I have some maneuvering to do. I estimate my adds cost roughly $60 mil in AAV putting me well above the LT. Subtracting as much of Didi’s cost as possible and maybe subtracting Eflin gets me to a more reasonable number.

    1. DMAR….fyi…Marchan hit another HR the other day in his winter league play….the power is comig around.

       1. I keep Marchan as backup. I don’t. Care what he does, I’m not allocating anymore money to a backup catcher. Let the backup play on days when the top SR are pitching, so it negates the need for more offense. Done. No one is losing a playoff series do to a weak backup catching depth

       2. I like Marchan a lot, but he doesn’t fit the backup C role here….he is more valuable right now with a young developing team with more of a platoon catching situation. Dombrowski will undoubtedly get a suitable backup C for 2022. And no, it’s not life and death in any case.

       3. Romus nobody here believes in Marchan more than I do 🙂 I adore the kid

          1. Can understand that.
             He will probably need to move on to make his niche in the MLB, that is, as a starter.

             And a loud shout out to all the vets today:
             “….semper grati et grati…”

             1. Yes i Echo that sentiment for our Vets I hold them all in high reverence. If I may plug a fwar way to honor them I always donate to one or more of the following

                USO
                Folds of Honor
                PVA
                Wounded Warriors

                1. Good job DMAR.

49. I guess I should build you my realistic trade proposal for Marte and his $8 mil salary-I’ll start with the guy that is in AZ right now raising some eyebrows O’Hoppe; I’ll then add Eflin and their choice of any one of the OF depth I have in the system.

    Could be Haseley, Muzziotti, Moniak Yhoswar I mean take your pick Hazen we have a lot of interesting guys there

    1. I love what Ketel brings offensively but the defense up the middle needs to be upgraded as well. And losing O’Hoppe would really sting. In any major move, I am okay with trading either Abel or Painter, Rojas and any of our OFs, either Garcia, Wilson, Miller (although reluctantly) and anyone else with the exception of Stott and O’Hoppe. Having said that, and not to flog a dead horse, trading Nola to San Diego for Abrams, Gore and Will Myers would help offset some of that sting.

       1. Mark I think its oveplayed about Ketel’s defense. He’s no Kiermaier I grant you that but he’s not a butcher out there either.

          I’ll take his 2021 slash 318/377/909 OPS at the top of our LU any day and if you do get the DH imagine having him as protection for your 9th hitter…

       2. GORE has fallen off a cliff by the way….beware of hype machines and picking a guy straight off where he is ranked…

          The Rays nabbed the right 2 pitchers in that system when they traded Snell

    2. “Could be Haseley, Muzziotti, Moniak Yhoswar “…you forgot the guy that they would probably want…Johan Rojas.

       1. Yeah he is a good one too Romus.

          Look there are many ways to improve this team and I’m not knocking anyone else’s ideas. DD will have is own plan I’m sure and I doubt it would look anything like mine.

50. Looking at the lineup, Harper and Gregorius / Stott are the only lefties. So I would expect in the OF there will be at least 1 lefty added (Schwarber??). Marte in CF would be a leadoff hitter and defensive upgrade but hit right handed. If an infielder is added for starter or platoon he will either be a lefty or switch hitter.

    The Moniaks, Vierlings, Williams, and other AAAA outfielders of the world will likely fill bench roles.

    Bullpen is anyones guess: Janson, Graveman, Knebel, and Melancon are the best candidates to close. But they have 3 spots to fill and will likely need some pitchers for depth.

    1. Bob D:
       ” Marte in CF would be a leadoff hitter and defensive upgrade but hit right handed.”
       Which Marte are you referring to?

       Ketel Marte is a switch-hitter:
       https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marteke01.shtml

       Starling Marte hits righthanded.
       https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martest01.shtml

       1. Starling, lol but I guess both would work.

          1. Ok…DMARS has always wanted to go for Ketel for CF…just assume yuo met him also.
             Starling has played it quite a bit in the past, not sure how h will do out there over a 140/150 game season for him now at 33 years old..

             1. When I look at Starling Marte I see Cutch all over again. Nice player but yeah he is 33 and the power hasn’t really showed up

                Not necessarily looking for HRs from my leadoff guy but Ketel did pop 14 in an injury shortened season and a few back he popped 32.

                1. You shouldn’t. Cutch was declining. Starling had a tremendous year last year – a 5 WAR year, but he won’t cost nearly that due to his age and the fact that he’s never become a star. His defense is also very good. If they could get him for around 2 years and $24 million, I’d pounce on that, even with a third-year and a buy-out right ($3 million?). I think Schwarber gets about $17 m AAV, so you could afford Starling, Schwarber, Knebel and the other pieces you need. It’s doable, and I agree there will also be a trade or two.

                2. It’s funny, when I looked at Starling’s numbers this morning, I thought to myself “yeah, it’s pretty clear, this is the guy.”

                   Apparently, I’m not alone.

                   https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/. The Phillies are in on him and Aaron Loup.

                3. It will be interesting to see what the market is for Starling. As I view his stats, $12 m AAV might be a little light – more like $15m or more.

                4. Yeah I’m ok with Starling Marte he’s an improvement for the short term. I won’t hate it…

51. Last week, Phillies Nation posted (and I just read) a piece by Destiny Lugardo on off season moves to make in order to keep salaries under the LTT. Interesting, if not overly exciting. She has Didi going to his original team, the Dbacks, for SS Nick Ahmed who’s excellent glove and below average bat would be a swap of bad money. The assumption must be that Stott doesn’t go north from ST.

    The rest of the moves are free agent signings…Chris Taylor would be the biggest at 3/$48M. Then Mark Canha at 2/$23M. Re-sign Brad Miller (1/$2M) as lefty DH and bench reserve and Hector Neris at 2/$14M since he’s a known commodity effective as a setup man. New arms in the bullpen would be Vegas native and old friend of Harper, lefty Chasen Shreve (1/$1.5M) who once pitched under Joe G with the Yankees, and Corey Knebel (1/$5M) to be the closer. Lugardo suggests Knebel’s market won’t be so robust due to his injury history of recent years since racking up 39 saves in 2017, although still very effective when healthy.

    The Didi for Ahmed trade wouldn’t thrill me despite his glove. I would prefer to add a big lefty bat but Taylor and Canha would still be good signings, and I’ve posted before my preference for both Knebel and Shreve. Instead of re-signing Hector, I would prefer having cheaper options in Seranthony, Brogdon and Coonrod vying for setup roles. I’m okay with Miller coming back as DH/PH on the cheap as well.

    1. Dan O’Dowd and I agree Taylor is likely to get a bigger deal than most people think and it will likely be years higher than you tend to see for a player his age but a lower AAV.

       I’d bet a good chunk of dough its 5/$80 or more. The AAV of 3/$48 I believe is spot on $16 mil. But you have to go 5 maybe even 6. Something akin to what LeMahieu got from the Yankees.

    2. MLB Rumors is predicting $9m a year for Knebel over multiple years. I like Knebel too, same with Graveman, but I was thinking more in the 6-7m range. I don’t know if we can afford to get into a bidding war over Knebel or Graveman, though I like both pitchers very much.

52. A big Kudos to the MLB Network. They have such a crack staff of analysts its beyond comparison to any other.

    And what seems like an endless bromance I have for Dan O’Dowd I don’t understand how any of the franchises mired in mediocrity haven’t hired this guy to be their President of Baseball operations.

    The insight that he brings to this time of year and the humbleness from which he projects it is outstanding. If you’re not catching him whenever he is on you are missing out.

53. wow this guy wins my turd of the year award. Unbelievably shameless of him

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mlb-agent-scott-boras-takes-shot-at-braves-world-series/ar-AAQzfFI?ocid=hplocalnews

    This game is about the fans and its the fans investment of their time and money that make such ludicrous amounts of money for players and owners alike. He never mentions them.

54. Signing big time FAs and swinging head turning trades are nice … but … the good franchises also improve around the edges. They unearth/procure talent in other ways.
    The other day, I mentioned the Phillies should look to sign Natahan Kirby as a MiLB FA if the Pirates failed to add him to their 40-man. Ben Cheringtonn did not add Kirby, so he is now available. Kirby was a top college LHP at UVA (teammates with Adam Haseley), and is a former first round pick. Unfortunately for Kirby, his career to this point has been marred with arm injuries. He’s only thrown 109 innings over the past 6 years.
    I would absolutely make him MiLB FA target #1 if I was DD.

    1. Other than Kirby, I would expect the Phillies to look at former Padres and Yankees prospects. Preston Mattingly spent the past five seasons with San Diego. And Brian Barber/Joe Girardi have personal knowledge of that Yankees’ system.

       Frecier Perez is a former top 30 NYY prospect, and a top 100 guy overall (at least on KLaw’s 2018 list). The 6’8″/240 lb RHP (at his best) throws upper 90s, and adds a plus CH.

       1. Michael Gettys is a former Padres second round pick. He’s always been a tooled up OFer. He’s got big power, big arm, plus wheels. Gettys has just never hit enough (.257/.313/.425 MiLB career slash line), and Kd too much to make it to MLB.

          🚨 Cannon alert: @Michaelgettys3 🚨#PadresST pic.twitter.com/2P58zXEcj2

          — San Diego Padres (@Padres) March 18, 2019

          1. Probably should have mentioned Perez and Gettys (like Kirby) are also MiLB FAs.

             1. Eight days from now the Phillies wil need to submit their final 40 for 2022.
                Not sure what Dave D. will do bewteen now and then…he may add players thru FA/trades/waiver pick ups and the like.
                If come Dec 9th they have one or two open slots on the 40….they will draft for sure, and maybe these guys will be there for them to take..

          2. The big issue with Kirby is that he also doesn’t walk as much. I’ve spent a bunch of time looking at late career breakouts and, almost every time, the guy showed very good (at least solid) plate discipline in the minors before they were promoted. That, to me, is his biggest red flag, although the athleticism is a helpful mitigating factor.

             1. I meant to say Gettys. I like Kirby.

             2. I meant to say Gettys. I like them taking a flyer on Kirby, however. There’s no downside to that.

55. Just a question, Hinkie, are these guys that we would pick up in the Rule V Draft, or are they FAs like our guy Randolph?

    1. Kirby, Perez, and Gettys are all MiLB FAs. They are just like Cornelius Randolph. They (as far as I know) can be signed at any time. And they aren’t given a 40-man spot.
       The rule 5 guy that I like is Steven Kwan. The Guardians MiLB CFer/leadoff hitter I mentioned earlier in this thread.

56. MLBTR is reporting that Bryan Reynolds is just about on everyone’s radar, but the Phillies weren’t listed. I’m assuming that’s a typo, as it’s an obvious need, that they’d be in on it. Going to be tough to win that trade over so many other teams, but maybe Realmuto 2.0 trade happens. DD certainly has the balls to do it. If it can’t happen, really hoping that Reynolds, Chapman, or Semien can be added to roster, all boost the teams defense, pitching, and batting. Love Reynolds TB states, along with Semien. Chapman is a extra base machine, would play well in CBP. Come on DD get it done!

    1. Heyman has Starling Marte drawing quite a bit of interest from the Phillies.

       Dave D. said someone named DMAR has been bugging him for weeks now on getting Marte…the squeaky wheel syndrome it appears is happening.

       1. Haha I don’t have much use for Heyman Romus he’s a bloviator IMO. I’m looking for the Ketel derivative of that last name LOL

          But we all tend to agree CF needs to be better, LF needs to be better and surely SS and 3B need to be better with the latter 2 spots possibly improved from in house cheap youngsters.

          I am a Stott believer and I’d be willing to live through any growing pains he may have.

          I’m not of the variety that says we need to win now blah blah our window our window. Just make the product better DD those things will happen.

57. Hopefully DD pays attention to the other teams out there for possible trades. The Phils match up with the Mariners if they want to fill their CF position. Mariners have Jake Fraley (27 next year, Left Handed), Jarred Kelenic (22, LH), Taylor Trammell (24, LH), Kyle Lewis (26, RH), and current top prospect Julio Rodriguez (21, RH) creating a glut of potential outfielders. Kelenic was a top prospect when promoted so he may be hard to pry away but the others could potentially be moved if someone wows them. The Mariners have a weakness at catcher with no prospects close to promotion, whereas the Phillies have a depth of quality catching in the minors.

    They all have good potential but so far in the majors not a lot of success but they have not been bad either. This route could be the best option for CF once Starling Marte signs. Also salary would be much less creating the potential to use that money to fill other needs.

    1. BobD…Jake Fraley local kid from Delaware….on Aaron Nola’s major leagye debut back in 2015…..met and talked with Jake’s parents, very nice people……they came up to the ballpark to see Aaron….Jake and Aaron played on the same LSU Tigers team.

58. Three Phillies to the AFL All-Star game. Jones, O’Hoppe and Stott… Miller may have been close with a 2.25 ERA but you can only shoe horn in so many pitcher’s..

    1. Of the almost 30 non-pitcher/position players selected for the All-Star game…O’Hoppe is one of the youngest..I believe there are three younger than him.
       That is an accomplishement in of itself …..and how he is finishing is also very noteworthy.
       He adjusts very well at every level.

       I want to see how he ends up when BA/MLB.com select their top 100 prospects come February.

       1. MLB Network will air it at 7 PM I believe on Saturday…

          1. Will want to hear what Mayo, Cullis and the gang have to say about O’Hoppe.
             There are no denying his metrics over the last 2/3 years…..at advanced levels for his youthful age….as a catcher no less.

    2. It’s only a month of ball and there have been a lot of great AFL performers who never panned out . . . BUT . . . it’s hard not to be extremely impressed with what O’Hoppe has done in the AFL. Remember, he’s just 21 (two years younger than Stott), and not only does he apparently play a key position well, he’s 8th in the league in OPS and tied for second in walks behind walk machine Bryson Stott. And if you’ve seen O’Hoppe in person – well, he’s a physically imposing guy and looks like he has plenty of strength to continue developing power. At this point, I don’t see how I keep him out of my top 5.

       As for next season, we’ve been so much as told that O’Hoppe will start in AA and Marchan in AAA (assuming one or both is not traded).

59. Pirates could be a trade partner or Rule 5 selection. Pirates have 10 top 30 prospects needing protection with 4 of them being outfielders. Either make a trade to get one prior to the add deadline or wait n see what Rule 5 draft provides.

    A trade for relief help could be accomplished this way. Either trade for someone needing protection or trading for someone on major league roster to help them free up a roster spot. There are several teams that will have a roster crunch that the Phils could find a less expensive way to fill at least one need.

    1. Trading for another teams Rule 5 vulnerable prospects, mean they would want a prospect in the lower levels that does not need protection this year.
       Phillies do seem to have quit a few prospects under 21 years old that have good looking potential right now.

60. Phils hire a new Asst. GM, to head up R and D, His name is Anirudh Kilambi, and he comes from the Tamp organization. Anyone know any more than that?

    1. UC Berkeley grad..

       1. This is great news. They are listening. They are trying.

          1. If the guys from the East coast Ivy league schools s could not work out (Klentak and Dartmouth), then try the West Coast ivy League school grads.
             But seems we went that way once before with Ruben….a Stanford guy.

             He is young but does have Tampa Ray experience so that is a plus.
             Preston M. at 34 and this guy at 27 makes for a young management team.

             1. Hopefully, he can help find some under the radar BP talent here.

                Can confirm this. Kilambi will run Phillies R&D. Rays officials have cited him as an influential evaluator in under-the-radar pitching acquisitions. Good background from @TBTimes_Rays: https://t.co/4GPpngrDRY https://t.co/XiweswuEms

                — Matt Gelb (@MattGelb) November 11, 2021

             2. Obviously, just because he attended a good school doesn’t mean he’ll be good at his job, but it at least suggests he’s bright.

                But a young, smart guy who has worked for the Rays is the type of person who seems ideal to help turn around their metrics group, at least that’s how I see it. It might not work, but they are pushing in the right direction.

61. Bryce wins the Silver Slugger, and we just have to do whatever it takes to be a Playoff team while he is in his prime. I know I am not saying anything we don’t talk about constantly, but each award makes me more anxious for DD to get started.

62. Phillies are interested in Starling Marte, the top CF on the market. Many in on him but this is one of the better fits.

    — Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 11, 2021

    .

    DD would be neglectful to not check in on Starling Marte … but … for me, this screams: BEWARE OF OVERPAYING FOR PAST PERFORMANCE. He’s 33, and succeeds, in good part, to the use of his legs.
    I’d rather buy low on 28 YO Michael Conforto to play LF, coming off a down year (mostly due to some bad luck) than throw major money at Marte for CF. JBJ is a good option in CF IMO. He won’t cost much in prospect capital. He’ll give you GG defense. And you would only be married to him for one year (allowing you to be open to bidding on Brandon Nimmo next winter if the Mets don’t lock him up before then).

    1. It’s a fair concern, but, really it’s all about contract length and price point, isn’t it?

       If the Phillies need to go more than 2 years or more than $15 m AAV, on Marte, well, that’s a huge concern. That said, as much as I like Conforto (and I do), his performance has been very uneven over the years (alternating good years and bad years), and his defense isn’t good and is going to get worse, and has NEVER had a 4 bWAR season and has had one such fWAR season (Mare has had 6 such seasons, including last year, when he was 4.7 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR – he was an all-star quality player last year). If Conforto wants a pillow contract or a 3 year deal, maybe, but I think he’s a bad bet on a long-term contract.

       1. If they can do I’d like to see Marte, Schwarber, and Knebel – those three guys would help the team immensely. Galvis back to play all infield positions and start at short to begin the year. Freddy is a much better player than he is given credit for and he can really play every infield position very well on an as-needed basis and hit homers at the bottom of the line-up.

          1. I would expect Stott to be promoted early in the season – probably late April or early May or whenever they can do so without having to give him credit for a full season played for purposes of starting his FA clock.

             1. Cannot understand the need to save service time for Stott…..he is not a 20 or 21 year who will reach free agency at 26/27 like Harper, Correa, Machado, Betts, Lindor et al……he is already 24 years old……he will not reach free agency now until he is at least 30 or 31.

                It is totally up to the Phillies…..but if he is ready in March why wait the 6 weeks.
                But if they feel he still needs 75 or 100 PAs in Triple-A….can understand that.

                And who knows…in two weeks all those past requirements for service time may be a thing of the past. The new CBA may revise all of those past requirements.

                1. You are thinking like a fan and not an owner.

                   You don’t see the need to do it, but if the Phillies think he is going to become a high dollar value player, and there is only a short waiting time before he misses the service clock in 2022 for free agency, I am sure they will consider it a no brainer to keep on the farm for a short time and thereby retain control of him for an extra year, and also keep his compensation down. It also doesn’t hurt that Stott barely played in AAA this year, so having him play a month or so at AAA, probably wouldn’t be a bad idea in any event.

                   Of course, how the CBA plays out will affect this decision. If the new CBA says, for example, that players who play more than half a season (say, 82 games) for their first year, will be credited with a full season for FA purposes, then, most likely, the decision to promote him will be entirely merit based.

                2. catch … if you are making the argument that Marte has been a better player than Conforto to this point … then … yes, I agree. But you can’t judge what the better signing will be for the Phillies based on that. The question is, who will be the more effective player going forward (at the contract they will demand). The point I was trying to make is this: generally, guys begin regressing at 33 YO. Maybe a power hitter holds up a little longer. Marte is not that. He needs his legs to be at his best. IMO, you’re going to be paying Marte premium money (probably 3 to 4 years @ 16M) for declining output.
                   Conforto is still just 28 YO (he’ll be 29 next season), and will give you Rhys Hoskins like production (almost identical career OPS+) from a LH bat.
                   One other point … if you don’t like Conforto’s defense, you’ll hate Schwarber’s glove (and I like Schwarber/wouldn’t hate having his bat in the Phils’ LU).

                3. No, I’m making an analysis of who will be more cost-effective going forward and argued that it depends on the contract length and price point.

                   Obviously, you can’t ignore that Starling is going to be 33 – it’s an important age. That said, he had one of his best season last year and his speed still seems amazing. He stole more bases last year than he had in any other season. There is nothing to suggest that his skills are in decline. So, yeah, you don’t want him for 4 or perhaps even 3 years (except if the third year has a buy-out). It’s a balancing act.

                   As for Conforto, I don’t trust the value if they want a long term contract for him. Yeah, I agree that he Schwarber both don’t play defense very well, but I think Schwarber has turned the corner and is going to be an impact bat for several seasons. He’s the type of guy who can carry the team for several weeks. I also think Schwarber will get plenty of DH at bats.

                4. I don’t have crystal ball to know what Starling Marte’s production is going to look like moving forward. But it’s reasonable to judge what it might look like using other players who have been the most similar hitters (as suggested by Baseball Reference).

                   Al Martin … I’m not even going to use him because by his age 33 season, he was embroiled in legal problems and ethical problems that caused him to miss lots of time, and played little ball after that.

                   Roberto Kelly … had good age 33 and 34 seasons (although in just 270 and 319 PAs). Played a handful of games at age 35, and was then finished.

                   Shane Victorino … averaged .279/.344/.436 before age 33. averaged .246/.306/.329 in his age 33 and 34 seasons, and was out of baseball after that.

                   Jacoby Ellsbury … slashed .264/.348/.402 as a 33 YO. Never played again because of injuries, despite making 21+M per season for the next three years.

                   Christian Yelich … is still just 29 YO, but has been in a free fall since winning the MVP in 2018, and finishing runner-up in 2019. He’s still owed lots of money.

                   Derek Bell … only played until age 32.

                   Troy O’Leary … only played until age 33 (.218/.275/.356)

                   Grady Sizemore … was great early, but his career was a mess post age 27.

                   This study isn’t perfect (took me just 10 minutes to perform), and it doesn’t mean that it’s impossible for Starling Marte to be the outlier. I’m just saying past history says expect regression (probably significant regression).

                5. Hinkie – you’re right about there being a risk – but you can also find comps that did just fine over those years, like Tony Phillips, Torri Hunter and others. It definitely means the team has to be careful about overall dollars and contract length.

             2. And on some of your comps, the players were already in serious decline by the end of their age 32 season, whereas Marte was at his peak. There aren’t that many with a skill set like Marte’s who fell off a cliff, but, admittedly, there are some, just as there are some that keep cruising through their mid-30s. One little positive blip this year for Marte was an improved walk rate – just an observation.

                1. Another thing about Schwarber. I think he would just fit in here. He LOOKS like a Philadelphia player and I think the fans would love him. A true successor to John Kruk. It’s a relevant consideration for sure.

63. Coming down to the last half-dozen games or so…Stott back to over .300 with his first AFL HR……..O’Hoppe hitting cleanup and continues to roll.

    https://www.mlb.com/gameday/javelinas-vs-scorpions/2021/11/11/667348#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=667348

64. Catch – Need to disagree with you on Conforto. My cable company gives me all of the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox games. I have seen Conforto progress over the years. I thought he was an average LFer and when the Mets moved him to RF out of necessity, I thought it was a drastic mistake. But I was wrong.

    Conforto is one of the better right fielders in the NL. He takes great routes to the ball, has enough speed, and he throws really well. I believe he is even a better defender than Harper. As you said, his defense will regress in the coming years and I agree with you there. But, don’t they all regress over time? Marte is a legit CF but he is pretty old for a LTC.

    1. Ciada – I respect the eye test, but you should know that his metrics are not good at all and are really bad on fWAR (about a negative 1.5 defensive WAR this year) – this may be because his range is just not good even though he looks good fielding the ball. Harper’s dWAR isn’t too great either – below average.

       Also, and I’ll say this again, I’m not advocating for a LTC for Marte – there’s too much risk for that. Rather, only, only a shorter term contract, perhaps with an option year for the third year. But, certainly nothing longer than 3 years.

65. If Marte is gettable on a 3 year contract, I am all in. Cleary, the contract length is crucial when comparing the players, but CF is also a more important fill, IMO. Jeff Passan reports Semien and Seager negotiations are heating up. I never know if these reports are Agent driven to create a sense of urgency or real. I would be very surprised if Seager does not sign with the Yankees. I think catch mentioned Marte, Schwarber and Knebel. I will sign up right now.

66. Volume 🆙

    Logan O'Hoppe is one of the 10 best prospects in the @Phillies system.

    New scouting reports + more today at BA: https://t.co/xiR0iBsXvL pic.twitter.com/1KX3Sog7hR

    — Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) November 12, 2021

    1 Abel
    2 Painter
    3 Stott
    4 Rojas
    5 Wilson
    6 O’Hoppe
    7 Crouse
    8 Vierling
    9 Marchan
    10 Muzziotti

    1. Hinkie….BA really high on Ethan Wilson….sure hope he does double-jump promos this season coming up and finish up in Reading or maybe even a touch of LHV in Sept.

67. Another trade possibility. Angels desperate for pitching. Phillies need a CF. Nola to Angels for Adell + something else. Then Phillies turn around and sign J. Gray. Gray has no QO offer. Or work out some sort of 3 team deal where Angels get Nola, Phillies get Buxton, Twins Adell+ something.

    1. Was just thinking something similar, but Brandon Marsh+ prospects for Nola. Sign Seager or Correa, send Segura to the ChiSox for Kimbrell, resign Neris, Bradley and Diekman/Loup. Bring Stott north to play 2nd. Would still need to add a FA pitcher but overall threads the needle for today and tomorrow. not that it would happen, but would be interesting

    2. Forrest, I would nix that deal. Nola for Addell? Pass. Nola for Buxton? Pass, Buxton is hurt way too much to trade for Nola, imho. Efflin should be enough to get buxton and that is likely an overpay as the centerpiece from the Phillies. Buxton is awesome, no doubt, when he is available.

       1. No, I can’t imagine that Eflin would be enough to get Buxton, who, while frequently injury, is truly awesome. Think something like Eflin, Bohm and Marchan. But the biggest problem is that Buxton only has one more year of team control and the Phillies wouldn’t be able to afford him next year with their other big contracts.

          1. Catch, agree. I was saying efflin as the centerpiece. Efflin, Marchan, and another prospect outside the top ten. 1 year of control, followed by a huge contract request … for someone often injured. Reality will start setting in once the GM
             Takes a cold shower. Buxton is awesome, but.. that’s a risky as hell bet. He does great in that 1 year … man … you seriously going to offer him that lucrative contract for not getting hurt .. for 1 season? He’s a career killer for a GM. It’s a shame, he’s hurt so much. I’d rather pass If it costs more than that. I’m more even crazy about offering efflin … make it Gibson 🙂

             1. No, I wouldn’t make that trade, as much as I like Buxton.

                1. But make no mistake – someone will have to pay a lot in talent to get Buxton for next year.

       2. Tac3…agree, on moving Nola for those players.
          Addell..great athlete, but cannot hit the curve ball.
          Buxton…..misses too much time.
          Eflin for Buxton also appears to be an over pay….Buxton has not played a full year since I do not know when……Eflin when his knees are rehabbed is a solid mOR guy….his FIP overall, has been very good the last 2/3 years.

          1. Buxton ..in 2017 played 140 games…that is his best fro season longevity, in 7 years.
             His list of injuries…fractured hand in June was the latest, played 61 games…prior…

             Year: Injuries, Games played (Twins record)
             2015: Sprained left thumb, 46 (83-79)
             2016: Knee contusion/back spasms, 92 (59-103)
             2017: Groin strain/migraines, 140 (85-77)
             2018: Migraines/fractured toe/strained wrist, 28 (78-84)
             2019: Wrist contusion/concussion/left shoulder dislocation/labrum surgery, 87 (101-61)
             2020: Left foot sprain 39 (36-24)

             He rejected the Twins $80M extension this summer…with a ‘games played clause’ as expected for additonal incentives.

             https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buxtoby01.shtml

             1. So we would be getting a higher caliber and higher costing Roman Quinn.

                1. More than ikely, yes.

             2. Romus – that’s entirely right and fair. The biggest concern is that so many of these are soft tissue injuries – guys who sustain a lot of those have real trouble staying healthy.

                But goodness gracious, we have to talk about how good he has become. On a per game basis, he is arguably the best player in baseball. He’s that good. He’s other-wordly good at this point and he simultaneously solves your middle-of-the-order hitter problem and centefielder problem.

                So what does that mean? Well, to me, it means that if you get a chance to get him for one year for a reasonable price, you do it and take it from there. You try to re-sign him if he stays healthy – otherwise, you tender him and get a pick. And you also sign Schwarber. And all of a sudden – wow – this team competes with the Braves for the division next year.

                What would I trade for him? Johan Rojas and Marchan. Painter and Brogdon. It would be something like that, but hopefully a little less painful. It’s a super high price, but a line-up with Buxton, Segura, Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto, and Schwarber in succession – good God – what a great team!!!

                1. I would gladly and immediatley give the Twins 3 of our top 6-20 prospects for Buxton. This team is going to have to take some calculated risks while still growing the farm and keeping payroll in check. This move would be risk but, good God, Buxton is amazing!

                2. I keep thinking the Twins are a good match in a trade, but I have difficulty limiting the return from the Twins to Buxton alone. He’s only under control for one more season, and if he suffers an early injury it’s a complete loss.

                   If the Twins are looking to move salary, I would think they would also be willing to part w Taylor Rogers and Donaldson, in addition to Buxton.

                   Bohm
                   Crouse
                   Gregorious

                   for

                   Buxton
                   Rogers
                   Donaldson

                   Our lineup looks like:

                   Buxton
                   Harper
                   Hoskins
                   Schwarber *
                   Donaldson
                   Realmuto
                   Segura
                   Galvis / Stott

                   We’re signing Schwarber, Galvis, and a back-end reliever.

                3. Nice idea but the Phillies really don’t have the payroll room for Donaldson – they have painted themselves into a tight corner there

                4. Twins are not going to re-sign Buxton…he already refused their offer extension a few months ago.
                   They will field offers….but trust …Ms know the huge injury risk aspect with the player.
                   IMO, if I were the the Phillies, any Phillies prospects in the top ten would be off the table in an offer.
                   Now the othe rplayers who have MLB time….Haseley, or Moniak, or Bohm, or Kingery could also be offered in some capacity as part of the package.

                   Twins will probably try to add a high-end contract or two to Buxton to save…I’d be willing to see who they would also offer in those regards as bargaining chips….

68. Pass on Buxton

69. To all who scoffed at the idea the Oakland would laugh at Alec Bohm and a couple of other pieces for Matt Chapman: while in the car today, I was listening to Power Alley (MLB Radio). Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette were trying to put together a deal for the A’s 3Bman. Here’s what they came up with as a fair deal.
    Nationals get: Chapman
    A’s get: Carter Kieboom and Victor Robles

    Outside of maybe rocco, I seriously doubt there is anyone inside (or out) of baseball that believes Kieboom holds more value than Alec Bohm. Robles is a good defender with a wet noodle for a bat. Bohm, Maton, and a young pitcher (maybe Christian Hernandez) > Kieboom & Robles.
    BTW … I’m not saying I would do this trade. I’ve always said the A’s would consider a deal for Chapman that included (5 years of) Alec Bohm, and a couple of other secondary pieces.

    1. He’s a great player for sure. That would be an interesting deal.

       1. In terms of players the Phillies could move to get a game-changer like a Matt Chapman, perhaps the one guy I feel most comfortable moving is Bohm. And it’s because I don’t like Bohm – actually I do. It’s just that I really don’t see Bohm ever staying at third for very long. I don’t think I can ever recall a fielder who clearly doesn’t pass the “eye test” adjust to a position and become okay and Bohm just doesn’t pass the eye test for me. This, to me, means he becomes a left fielder, first baseman or DH, so now he’s inherently less valuable, the hitting bar becomes much higher and he’s easier to replace. I just can’t tell right now how good of a hitter is going to become, although I think it’s entirely possible that, over several years, he becomes a Nick Castellanos type performer – but it might take a while. And it might not happen at all, which is at least equally likely.

          1. I meant to say it’s NOT because I don’t like Bohm – I do like him.

             1. And, on Nola, I am telling you right now, that if the Phillies trade him to a very solid organization, he is going to end up competing for at least one, and perhaps several Cy Young awards. If you trade him, you need to get back a haul in prospects and you need to sign a top tier pitcher this year to at least replace him for a few years (like a Verlander or someone like that – a real stud). But overall, to trade Nola, someone would have to make me an offer I couldn’t refuse and, trust me, teams will be asking about him this year A LOT due to his amazing metrics (you can’t strike out 10 batters in a row if you’re not an elite talent – doesn’t happen), trying to steal him away from the Phillies. Hopefully, they don’t take any wooden nickels from the Rays or Yankees – I don’t trust either of those teams as far as I can throw them.

                1. Catch – you sound like me ref: Nola. I simply cannot understand why or how he can even consider being traded unless you get at least 1 or 2 high level young pitchers for him plus other players. You can add the Dodgers to those untrustworthy teams. They would turn him into the next Koufax.

                2. Nola vs Robbie Ray.
                   Nola had a higher fWAR this year than Robbie Ray.
                   Hard to imagune that since MLB people were salivating over Ray all year in Toronto.

                   https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31

                   Nola ranked 11th among all MLB pitchers..
                   Ray ranked 17th.
                   But seem to have 4 great innings and that one bad inning…giving up key hits with two strikes on a batter.
                   The ERA and FIP were a run apart…to me ..indicating poor over fielding behind him and/or poor shift startegy.

    2. Hinkie…Billy Beane has always gone agsinst the grain on deals.
       And most times it is monetary driven, leaning towrds frugality.
       Until the As from Oakland to Vega$, I assume, Billy B will be trading with that in the back of his mind.

       1. Until the A’s MOVE from Oakland to ………..

          1. ……..to Philadelphia. IDK Philadelphia A’s sounds good

             1. I have their throw back 1947 hat……the color is blue with white lettering.
                People see it and think it is the Atlanta Braves hat.

                https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/shopping?q=tbn:ANd9GcR3JdTLNKmg8b45fw0x3dSAxc4O0sXC5b6mY16VEbmstEyyDTqoTkrTAbdhqto5fixW8NCttXdHJdgXdlx3dW2vEfqaVaFSNUHv483JFbj6&usqp=CAc

                1. Romus – in Hatboro, PA there is an A’s HOF storefront with all sorts of great pix and uniform memorabilia available to purchase also. Right on main drag….very cool place.

                2. I will have to check that place out…..is that also where the A’s museum is?
                   Mitchell and Ness have plenty of As stuff also…..expensive though, just like down at the Park in the store out beyond LF.
                   I like the ‘elephant’ design on some of thir apparel.

70. This is almost heartbreaking, as a Phillies Phan I mean;

    https://www.mlb.com/news/curtis-mead-extends-arizona-fall-league-hitting-streak

    1. Yeah – it seems every few days there is more Curtis Mead news – focus on Stott and O’Hoppe – it has made me feel better.

       1. Incidentally….they ranke 9-11-14 in batting (OPS) in the AFL
          https://www.mlb.com/arizona-fall-league/statistics

71. For the late night crowd here's another angle of Phillies Bryson Stott's homer at Salt River tonight. Per @jnorris427 110 mph off the bat, traveled 426 FT. Stott has homered in consecutive games and is now slashing .320/.450/.493 w/ 24 RBI and 19 runs. #PLiveAFL pic.twitter.com/J02kmEx5jS

    — Prospects Live (@ProspectsLive) November 13, 2021

    1. Wow…….he ceertainly generates plenty of bat speed and power.

    2. His write up by MLB.com Nick Trujillo.:
       Phillies: Bryson Stott, SS (MLB No. 97), Peoria Javelinas
       Stott crushed his second homer of the Fall League in Peoria’s 6-3 loss to Salt River on Friday. The third-inning blast drove in two runs and served as the shortstop’s only hit of the night. Stott, who was selected to compete in Saturday’s Fall Stars Game, has been on fire during his time in Arizona. The 24-year-old has a .320/.450/.493 slash line with a .943 OPS, recording 24 hits and 20 walks. His .450 OBP ranks fifth amongst all qualified AFL players, his 24 RBIs rank second, and he is tied with Marlins prospect Kameron Misner for the league lead in walks. Stott showed his elite offensive skills during the regular season with 16 home runs and an .876 OPS in 112 games across three levels of the Minor Leagues.

       Bombs away!!💣 After hitting his first homer last night, Bryson Stott follows it up with a no doubter half way up the lawn! Be prepared @Phillies fans, the future is coming! @IronPigs pic.twitter.com/VBXBEFij5J

       — MLB's Arizona Fall League (@MLBazFallLeague) November 13, 2021

       1. Stott must be reading this site, the other day someone was concerned of his lack of power then he hits 2 dingers right afterward.

          1. Denny….LOL…a little back hand swipe at me…..I will give you that one, you got me.

             November 10, 2021 at 10:34 AM
             matt13…of Stott…..just went under .300 yesterday…now sits at .299 with 8 games left in he AFL..overall he has been superb in Arizona.
             Oddly…..with all his very good hitting metrics..has not hit a HR…whereas the younger O”Hoppe has gone downtown twice.

             1. Yep Romus, your are the Team Motivator. I will recommend you for a position as a Motivational Coach.

                1. Stott rope one for double first AB tonite….105+ EV

72. At Romus – yes, that is where the A’s museum is also. Or, it used to be – I was there about 5 years ago.

73. If the Starling Marte rumors become reality, then I see DD also signing a big bopper to play LF, and a closer. That would be the extent of significant FA signings. A Brad Miller re-signing would also fit the roster’s needs. I don’t love Marte but he would be an upgrade in CF. Ketel and Reynolds via trade would cost a lot, and probably less than what rival suitors can offer.

    The question then is whether DD pursues a 3B via trade. Acquiring Matt Chapman would have such an impact on this lineup, not to mention the defensive upgrade he would be.

    Augmenting the bullpen with the likes of lefties Loup and/or Shreve would be nice since young righties like Seranthony, Brogdon and Coonrod should round out the staff.

    1. Bohm will be playing 3b

       1. Chapman hit 232 and 210 the last two years. No thanks.

          1. Fair, but he still have a 3.5 war rating for a player hitting .210. I would throw out 2020, he only played 37 games. The prior years he received MVP votes. He has 3 gold gloves at 3B in 5 years, and has averaged just under 70 xtra base hits a season. He did have a down year last year batting wise , but he is normally a 4.5-5 war player. It’s a gamble to trade for him with 2021 numbers , but at minimum you are getting a gold glove and personally I still think he has a few more 35 2b, 35 hr seasons in him. Ops closer to .850. A fair amount of upside for 4+ years. I beeline he is 29

             1. But I believe Bohm will bounce back from his first ever down season as well. And be much cheaper since Chapman is paid lots of money. It’s the equivalent of a team thinking Didi will bounce back offensively next season. I expect us to keep Bohm at 3rd and that he will improve in all aspects. We have to have a few minimum salary guys to stay under the cap, which I totally believe we will do.

74. Someone suggested the AFL all star game might be on MLB TV, and it is, at 7; I’ve just set Youtube TV to record it, as I’ll be busy with the remote switching between 6ers and Temple basketball tonightl.

75. Stott got a brief atta-boy write-up on last night’s 10 Best from the AFL All-Star Game:

    https://www.mlb.com/news/top-performers-of-the-2021-fall-stars-game?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage

    1. Phillies (West)
       Bryson Stott drove in the first run of the Fall Stars Game with a first-inning RBI double that had a 104.8 mph exit velocity and finished his night 1-for-3 with a strikeout. The Phillies’ No. 2 prospect has been on fire in the AFL, batting .320 with a .450 OBP and 24 RBIs in 21 games. Logan O’Hoppe started behind the plate for the West, going 0-for-2 with two strikeouts before being lifted for Yankees prospect Austin Wells in the fourth. In 18 AFL games, Philadelphia’s No. 11 prospect has posted a .955 OPS with nine extra-base hits (seven doubles, two home runs). Damon Jones retired both batters he faced after entering in the seventh, getting Cubs prospect Andy Weber to fly out to left and striking out Jose Tena.

       1. Had a chance to watch a few ABs in the AFL all-star game. Stott, of course looks good. O’Hoppe didn’t have a great night, but he’s 21 and a developing player. My only comment on O’Hoppe is that, as a power hitter, he stands ridiculously close to the plate, I know this gives him good plate coverage, but it also makes him very vulnerable to hard inside stuff. Unless he’s got an insanely fast bat, it will be interesting to see if they move him away from the plate a little bit. I mean, with where he stands, it was truly uncomfortable to watch the at bats. We shall see.

          1. Also, had a chance to watch Damon Jones. What I saw, in an incredibly small sample size, was a dramatically improved pitcher over the one I saw in 2019 and ST last year. Jones’ biggest issue was not just command, but control – he used to be all over the place. As a lefty he sat 94-95 which is perfectly fine for BP work. In this game, his control was not only good, but he showed very good command, working at the corners and showing a decent breaking curve that he commanded well. In short, what I saw looked like a very helpful big league bullpen piece, which was a surprise to me. He will pitch in the big leagues for somebody next year. Wouldn’t surprise me if he makes the 40-man or if he is traded. Good for him.

             1. He’s already on the 40

             2. Yeah. Jones gives me Jeremy Affeldt vibes. Although, Jones has a more juiced up arm.

                1. Hinkie – I have been accused by people of having a photographic memory of baseball stats/players —– but you blew me away with Jeremy Affeldt. Knew the name – SF – but how in the world did you connect those dots to Jones ???? I am chucking at your expertise !!! By the way – he / Jeremy that is / and therefore Damon Jones / is similar to Dennis Cook and also Chuck McElroy – among others !!! according to Baseball Reference. Now that’s funny…..

                   Whoops – I heard your phone ring – must be the N Y Mutts…..let you go….

                2. LOL. RU … Jeremy Affeldt will be emblazed in the deepest recesses of my brain forever. If it wasn’t for him, the Phillies may have won game 6 of the NLCS, and forced a game 7 at CBP. Remember Jonathan Sanchez had completely lost it (couldn’t throw strikes/also got into the fracas with Chase Utley) early in that contest. Bruce Bochy called on Affeldt, and he shut down the Phillies in the middle innings.

          2. He must have changed his stance over the last year…in the past he was further away. from the plate.

             https://2080baseball.com/draft-prospect-video/logan-ohoppe-2/ …a side view really hard to tell how close he is in this video.

76. Negative? I’m the one saying I think Bohm will bounce back. I just believe in realistic moves coming, not unrealistic ones. Not negative at all.

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