I received an e-mail from Mitch Rupert about 10 days ago. He proposed stepping in to fill one of the voids when Mike Drago moved on from the Reading Eagle. He asked a bunch of people to continue to take part in Mike’s End of Season Top 20 Prospects Poll.
As always, when I participate in a prospect poll, I have a bunch of “rules” I follow that allow me to come up with a submission that is generally far different from others. This year was no exception.
I told Mitch about this quirk and gave him the option of discarding my ranking if it was too radical. I neglected to inform Mike that one of the projects I was working on was the Prospect Profiles and that a lot of obscure data would likely influence my reply.
This is what I submitted via e-mail.
Mitch,
Sorry for replying at the last minute. I’ve been working on a couple of other projects with deadlines, too. Good luck with this. I don’t think I ever presented Mike with a conventional list.
Based on “present value to the organization” I usually eliminate the guys at Lehigh Valley and some of those at Reading (and most guys already on the 40, like Moniak and Vierling). If they had any value, I believe they would have been in Philadelphia during the season. More so this year since Girardi, Harper, Dombrowski, and Middleton have kinda dumped on our minor leaguers. I also eliminate from consideration a lot of the guys on the IL, especially those I know have shoulder and elbow injuries.
My “major league ceiling/potential” is probably weighted more toward potential. Most of the guys I like are guys I’ve seen. They tend to come from the lower levels and are on the young side. Also, as I’m sure you’ll agree, the lost 2020 season really makes this a difficult exercise.
-
- Bryson Stott, SS – Kid can hit. I was concerned about his arm. You allayed those fears.
- Mick Abel, RHP – Kid looks real good, he wasn’t hurt when they shut him down
- Johan Rojas, CF – Speed and some pop
- Andrew Painter, RHP – Real SSS but he racks up Ks
- Erik Miller, LHP – Big arm, still like him if he stays healthy.
- Logan O’Hoppe, C – Drafted for defense, offense is a bonus, > Marchan in my mind.
- Erubiel Armenta, LHP – Wow, the Ks
- Andrew Schultz, RHP – Off the IL and back to upper 90s
- James McArthur, RHP – Stuff plays up, might have an impact this season
- Luis Garcia, SS – Love his D and his offense is picking up
- Yhoswar Garcia, CF – Love this kid. Steals on the first pitch. Has a little Odubel in him
- Adam Leverett, RHP – Sleeper?
- Griff McGarry, RHP – Possible quick-riser
- Ethan Wilson, OF – Big bats, nice if one or two pan out
- Jhailyn Ortiz , OF – Big bats, nice if one or two pan out
- Jordan Viars, OF – Big bats, nice if one or two pan out
- Alexeis Azuaje, 2B – SSS 1.376 OPS in FCL
- Lee Hao Yu, 2B – Kid from Taiwan can flat out hit
- Carlos Reyes – reliever who pitched successfully at 3 levels
- Victor Lopez (pitcher)
- Gabriel Yanez (pitcher)
- DJ Stewart (corner infielder)
- Fernando Lozano (pitcher)
- Matt Russell (pitcher)
- Andrick Nava (catcher)
- Corey Phelan (pitcher)
- Manuel Urias (pitcher)
- Samuel Aldegheri (pitcher)
- Jhordi Martinez (pitcher)
- Oswald Medina (pitcher)
- Daniel Brito, 2B – Was having a great season until …
Others who caught my eye and could easily displace some of the guys above – Brian Marconi, Ethan Lindow, Dominic Pipkin, Christian Hernandez, Rafael Marcano, Alex McKenney, Matt Osterberg, Jared Wetherbee, Jean Cabrera, Matt Kroon, Vito Friscia, Jamari Baylor, Wilfredo Flores, Freylin Minyety, Logan Simmons, Jared Carr, Edward Barboza, Adony Mejia, Anthony Quirion, Matt Goodheart, Kervin Pichardo, Marcus Lee Sang, Jadiel Sanchez. Gavin Tonkel, Rickardo Perez. Erick Brito, Yemal Flores.
Simon Muzziotti? Reminds me of Carlos Tocci. Don’t think he’s going to help this season. Think the Phillies will trade for a CF. Guys behind him will press him out of the organization like Rojas and Garcia. Missing most of two seasons really hurt.
Billy Sullivan? Nice numbers but two trips to the IL for 23.2 innings. Awkward delivery tough on his arm.
Casey Martin? He became the organization’s Mister K after Stobbe was released. Maybe a little harsh, but he needs to make more contact. Heck, Kroon, Minyety, Carr, Quirion, Friscia, and Goodheart make more contact.
I apologize if this list skews your poll. You don’t have to use it if you don’t want. As you can see, the numbers are really quite arbitrary after #5 Erik Miller.
Jim Peyton
Okay, the Mister K comment regarding Martin is too harsh. When Stobbe was released he had a K% of 43.63%. Martin’s K% of 28.1% is only slightly above the organizational rate of 24.83%. However, his slash of .198/.291/.310/.601 is worrisome.
Hans Crouse is on the 40, but he’s a guy who deserves prospect consideration. I just completely overlooked him. Like I said earlier, I was too focused on the guys at the lower levels who I actually saw.
For an organization supposedly bereft of talent, there are a lot of young/new guys who excite me – Abel, Painter, Rojas, Erik Miller, O’Hoppe, Armenta, Andrew Schultz, Luis Garcia, Yhoswar Garcia, McGarry, Wilson, Viars, Azuaje, Lee Hao Yu.
So, have at it. Just remember, polls are a matter of opinion. Everybody’s opinion is correct.
Phuture Phillies 
great, great post thank you. thank you thank you. Jim Is there a typo in the comment about the Mister K comment being too harsh?
He meant Stobbe, not Stott.
No typo, just an out-and-out mistake. Mark’s right, Stobbe not Stott.
Naturally, Jim sees a lot more obscure and very young players than those circulating at higher levels like the rest of us. Plus he talks to people closer with their ears to the rails. “Present value to the organization” is a good way to base a ranking of prospects. I counted 13 of Jim’s top 20 who will probably be in most of ours. So it’s not THAT radical.
Question on Rupert’s list – why would Jojo Romero still be on anyone’s list? (I get technically why, but you know what I mean.) Once a player gets a significant taste of the majors, and remains on the 40man, I’d say his “prospect” days are up.
Anyway, Erik Miller is my most intriguing arm on the farm. Ranger came virtually out of nowhere as a now promising LHP. Miller’s velo makes him even more enticing if he can stay on the mound. Encouraged to see him #5 on Jim’s post.
And yeah, what if 2 of Wilson, Ortiz and Viars emerge as big bats. Oh baby!!
….oh, and no Francisco Morales? Was that intentional or an oversight, Jim? Personally, I’m not a Morales hopeful but he’s on many top 10s.
He had 8 good innings at LHV, but 83 pretty horrific innings at Reading. His BB/9 has never been particularly good, but it was terrible last season (6.5 at Reading, 7.3 at LHV). By percentages that would be 15.51% walks and 27.08 Ks. His high K/9 of over 11 is mitigated by the high number of batters he faces.
Now, the % stuff wasn’t available to me when I made my list. But, the BB/9 was.
I’m tired of ranking guys because of reputation or stuff when they clearly aren’t pitching well. If I did rank him he would just be taking a spot from someone at the back end who deserves to be known.
So we told all the voters that anybody who still had rookie elibility heading into 2022 was eligible to be ranked. That disqualified Bailey Falter, Connor Brogdon, J.D. Hammer, Luke Williams, Nick Maton, Rafael Marchann, and Luke Williams.
On the flip side Matt Vierling, Hans Crouse, Mickey Moniak, Cristopher Sanchez, JoJo Romero, Adonis Medina, Kyle Dohy, and Ramon Rosso all had big league time but are still rookie eligible.
Erik Miller was one of the tougher guys for me to rank. Morales and Crouse have better stuff, but Miller is probably the better pitcher and his velo has ticked up since being drafted. I think with a healthy season next year he could shoot up lists.
Thanks for the response, Mitch.
Kiss of death on a bad pharm system again Jimmy , nobody in sight of helping us in the Bigs…let Mr D restructure this baaaad roster via free agents and trades with the help of Mr M’s check book being open cart Blanche…maybe even trade Nola to the Yankees for their top 3 prospects to help us replenish #JustSayin
Stick
Doesn’t matter, Stick. JG won’t play the minor league guys anyway, Worst thing that happened this year was Eskin finding that option year. Haha. See you in February or March? BTW, your dollar is doing well. It’s framed and hanging on my wall.
Yes, Romero had 117 service time days served at the start of the season. He shouldn’t be on anyone’s prospect lists or still have rookie status as listed on Baseball-Reference. IMO.
For a minute wonder who the heck was Logan Simmons…then realized Kendall is going by his mdddle name now.
Good list…..would have had Cristian Hernandez in the area bewteen 20 and 25 somewhere….
And Francisco Morales’ omission is a bit of a surprise….not even any mention in the top 58..
James MacArthur up pretty high. Had a terrible AFL start yesterday. Didn’t even get thru the 1st innings, gave up 8 hits and 9 runs.
Jim, appreciate your perspective. If you had rated Crouse where would you have put him on your list? He’s #5 for me. Thanks
Somewhere from 7-12, among the Armenta, Schultz, McArthur, Leverett, McGarry grouping of pitchers. I have concerns about his pitching style and whether it can hold up as a starter. Also, I wasn’t happy with the way the Phillies placed restrictions on his starts last season. They didn’t let him use the different types of windups he has used over the past few years and during the minor league season. That’s part of his schtick. You wean him off those in Tripe-A, not his first major league start, IMO.
Ok Jim